education, equity & the economy findings from state of the south 2004 sarah rubin, senior...

Education, Equity & the Economy

Findings from State of the South 2004

Sarah Rubin, Senior Associate

MDC Inc.

RCCA Conference -- October 2004

State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org

Big Trends

The South's population is changing.

The South's economy is changing.

High school education is changing – and it needs to.

Demographic and Economic Trends


South’s Population: More Diverse

Population Change by Age and Race, South 1990-2000

714,154

954,059

1,026,464

955,730

4,058,333

1,242,477

120,961

695,636

2,130,985

1,665,564

255,780

373,138

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Under 20

20-44

45-64

65+

Ag

e

Black Hispanic Non-Hispanic White, other races, and people of more than one race

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Children in Poverty, 2000

17%

22% 22%

19% 18%20%

26% 26%

17%

20% 19% 18%

22%

12%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

US AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: Kids Count / U.S. Census


More Offices, Fewer Factories

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent Employed by Occupation, South 1990 & 2000

11%14%

13%

16%

11%

17%

7%

10%

1%

6%9%

11%

1%

15%

12%

15%

19%

13%

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

Man

agem

ent,

busi

ness

, &fin

ance

Pro

fess

iona

l&

rel

ated

Ser

vice

Sal

es

Offi

ce &

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uppo

rt

Far

min

g,fis

hing

, &fo

rest

ry

Con

stru

ctio

n,ex

trac

tion,

&m

aint

enan

ce

Pro

duct

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Tra

nspo

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ion

& m

ater

ial

mov

ing

1990 2000


Fast-Growing Occupations Require Education Beyond High SchoolEducation level

% of all jobs, 2000

% of new jobs, 2000-2010

Projected rate of growth

Mean earnings, 2000

BA+ 21% 29% 22% $56,500

2-year degree or

certificate

8% 13% 24% $35,700

Work-related training

71% 58% 12% $26,000

Source: BLS Monthly Labor Review, Nov. 2001


Less-Educated Men: Falling Behind

U.S. Earnings by Educational Attainment, Men Age 18+, 1975 and 2001

$51,873

$35,568

$25,818

$34,482

$63,354

$21,508

$32,363

$37,429

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

<HS HS Some college BA

1975

2001

Source: Postsecondary Ed Opportunity, March 2003 (based on CPS data)


Squeezed in a Vise


How Well Are High Schools Preparing Youth for the Future Economy?


The Muddled Middle

Two clear pathways out of high school: Further education and career. Disconnection from society and opportunity.

Muddled middle, filled with young people for whom high school fails to provide direction or motivation.


Enrollment Up in Advanced Math

Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Measuring Up 2002.

Percent of HS students taking at least one upper-level math course (Algebra II or above), 1999-2000

34%

51% 53%46%

55%61%

43%

52%56% 56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

AL AR KY LA MS NC OK TN TX WV


Advanced Placement WidespreadPercent of Public HS's Offering AP Courses, 2002

65%

36% 36%

86%82%

75%

24%

34%

93%

56%

94%

61%

71%

87%

73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: SREB


More Minorities and Women Going to CollegeIn Southern colleges and universities: Black enrollment rose 48% during the 1990s. Hispanic enrollment rose 70%. Women’s enrollment has risen steadily since

the late 1970s. White male enrollment dropped slightly in the

1990s.


Achievement Gap Persists

Source: NCES Reading Highlights 2003.

State All Students

White Black Hispanic

AL 22% 30% 9% -

AR 27% 33% 6% -

FL 27% 37% 11% 25%

GA 26% 36% 12% 19%

KY 34% 36% 14% 16%

LA 22% 33% 9% -

MS 21% 32% 9% -

NC 29% 38% 13% 15%

OK 30% 34% 13% 17%

SC 24% 35% 10% -

TN 26% 32% 9% -

TX 26% 39% 14% 14%

VA 36% 44% 15% 31%

WV 25% 25% 13% -

US 30% 39% 12% 14%

2003 NAEP 8th Grade Reading Scores by Race/Ethnicity:Percent Who Scored Proficient or Higher

(Percents in blue are at or above the US average)


Too Few High School Graduates

Public High School Graduation Rates, 2001

66%75%

56%56%

71%70%

64%63%

77%57%

60%67%

74%84%

70%

40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

ALAR

FL

GAKY

LAMS

NC

OKSC

TNTX

VA

WVUS

Source: Jay P. Greene and Greg Forster, "Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the U.S., Education Working Paper No. 3," Center for Civic Innovation at the Manhattan Institute, September 2003.


Attainment: Race, Ethnic Gaps

31%

46%

25%

13% 12%

18%

23% 22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Total White Black Hispanic

<HS BA+

Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity, 2000: Less than High School or BA+

Source: U.S. Census

NOTE: "White" is non-Hispanic white.

"Black" is defined by the Census category "black alone"


Attainment: Metro/Nonmetro

Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and Metro/Nonmetro, 2000: Less than High School or BA+

14%

22%

28%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Metro Nonmetro

<HS

BA+

Source: March 2000 CPS


Drift Into Resegregation

1954 1970 1988 2001

Percentage of Southern Black Students in Majority-White Schools, 1954-2001

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Source: Brown at Fifty: King's Dream or Plessy's Nightmare? Gary Orfield and Chungmei Lee, Harvard Civil Rights Project, January 2004.


Schools: Levers for Change

Today, education is perhaps the most important function of state and local governments… It is the very foundation of good citizenship.

– US Supreme Court, 1954


Four Challenges

Sustained prosperity requires more people with higher skills and education beyond high school.

Young population is increasingly Latino and African American.

Many low-income youth attend isolated, resource-poor schools.

High schools fail to engage and inspire many students, regardless of income and race.


Levers for Change

1. Move beyond seat time and test scores.

2. Provide multiple pathways to opportunity.

3. Connect adults and adolescents.

4. Eliminate high-poverty schools.

5. Recognize the primacy of teaching.


1.Beyond Seat Time & Test Scores

Ensure that all young people graduate from high school prepared for further education.

Align high school curriculum and standards with requirements of the emerging economy and postsecondary education.

Extend literacy instruction through high school.


2. Provide Multiple Pathways

Offer training for skilled occupations – Career and Technical Education.

Provide accelerated learning options – AP courses, dual-enrollment.

Create blended institutions – Early College High Schools.

Establish Career Academies.


3. Connect Adults and Adolescents

Guidance counselors are powerful connectors.

High schools need strong connections to communities. Adult mentors. Businesses and work-based learning.


4. Eliminate High-Poverty Schools

Race matters, income matters more.

No school should have a high concentration of students living in poverty.

Where entire districts are poor, states must provide resources and encourage regionalism.


5.No Substitute for Strong Teaching

Develop a corps of superbly trained, well-paid, professional teachers.

Identify and train new teachers.

Retain incumbent teachers and expand professional development opportunities.

Break up systematic assigning of vulnerable teachers to vulnerable schools.

Offer pay, housing, tax, and other incentives to attract experienced principals and teachers to vulnerable schools.


Questions

How well do these recommendations match the needs in your community or region?

What can rural community colleges do to put more young people on a path to college?

Does your state have any promising initiatives to reform high school education? How are community colleges involved?


For More Information

Sarah Rubin

MDC Inc.

P.O. Box 17268, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-7268

(919) 968-4531

[email protected]

State of the South 2004 can be downloaded or ordered from MDC’s website (www.mdcinc.org)

education, equity & the economy findings from state of the south 2004 sarah rubin, senior...

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