Education for DevelopmentLessons from East Asia

Harry Anthony Patrinos@hpatrinos

The Region: A Half-century of Stellar GrowthAverage economic growth between 1961 and 2015

Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years). Author’scalculations.

World economy

+3.5%

+7.2%

Developing East

Asia Pacificvs

each year

each year

Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates

Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).

Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.

$11.1 trillion

EAP with China

Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates

$1.5 trillion

World

Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).

Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.

Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates

$1.5 trillion

World

$4.8 trillion

EAP without China

Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).

Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.

$11.1 trillion

EAP with China

Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates

Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).

Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.

Share Working in Agriculture has Fallen

Source: Data from International Labor Organization. Author’s calculations.

Share of population in 1991

Agriculture Services Other

Share Working in Agriculture has Fallen

Share of population in 2016

Agriculture Services Other

Source: Data from International Labor Organization. Author’s calculations.

Education Grew Rapidly and Steadily since 1950

Source: Barro and Lee 2013

Average years of schooling for adults aged 25+ in EAP compared to

world average in 1950

World EAP

1.3 years

2.9 years

Education Grew Rapidly and Steadily since 1950

7.9 years 8 years

Average years of schooling for adults aged 25+ in EAP compared to

world average in 2010

World EAP

Source: Barro and Lee 2013

Every year of Schooling Raises Earnings by 9-10%

Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Race Between Education and Technology

Higher Education Enrollment Rate

Rate of Return to Higher Education

Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014

Educational Achievement

490

500

510

520

530

540

550

560

Singapore Hong Kong SARChina

Japan Macao SAR China Estonia Chinese Taipei Canada Finland Korea China

PISA 2015: Top 10 Performers (average scores in science, math reading)

PISA 2016

East Asia Has Some of the Best Education Systems in the World

Note: Composite constructed average of PISA and TIMSS performance over all available iterations. Calculations based on PISA and TIMSS scores on nine assessments since

2000 for PISA, and 2003 for TIMSS

350 400 450 500 512 550 556 600 650406

B-S-J-G (China)Macao SAR, China

Japan Taiwan, China

Korea, Rep.Hong Kong SAR, China

Vietnam

ThailandMalaysia

Indonesia

Philippines

SingaporeShanghai, China

More Learning Occurs in Above-Average Performing Systems

Source: PISA 2015 (OECD 2016)

Singapore

IndonesiaB-S-J-G (China)

Korea, Rep.

Japan

Vietnam Thailand

Malaysia

2.0

1.3

1.3

2.0

4.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

Scores Are Not Only High, They Are Also Equitable

OECD Vietnam and B-S-J-G (China)

Students in bottom 40%

of SES in Vietnam and

BSJG score = 506

Bottom TopQuintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4

Average OECD score = 493

650

450

550

Source: PISA 2015 (OECD 2016)

Get the Basics Right

Education Commission 2016

Get the Basics Right

Fundamentals:

• Basic education first

Employer-led training:

• Training at secondary & post-secondary, based on skill needs, employer-led

Engage the private sector with public

funding:

• Secondary education

• Higher education

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Peru

Vietnam

Annual Productivity of Schooling(standard deviations)

Vietnam: Effect of Year of Schooling

Abhijeet Singh

PISA 2015

Vietnam: PISA Outlier: Bucking the Income Trend

Rising Returns to Higher Education in Vietnam

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Primary Secondary Tertiary

1992 2010

There Are Rising Returns to Higher Levels of Education

Despite Increases in Supply

Source: Di Gropello and Sakellariou 2010

Wage premiums to tertiary

education

Vietnam 1992

Share of workers

with tertiary

education

There Are Rising Returns to Higher Levels of Education

Despite Increases in Supply

+94%

Vietnam 2006

Wage premiums to tertiary

education

Share of workers

with tertiary

education

+273%

Source: Di Gropello and Sakellariou 2010

Top Performing Systems have an Unshakeable Commitment to

Developing Skills for Prosperity

Source: Barro and Lee 2013

Singapore

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Korea

Japan

Percent of population with no schooling in 1950

68%

55%

42%

35%

8%

Singapore

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Korea

Japan

18%

5%

8%

7%

0%

Percent of population with no schooling in 2010

Top Performing Systems have an Unshakeable Commitment to

Developing Skills for Prosperity

Source: Barro and Lee 2013

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Singapore

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Hong Kong

Thailand

Hong Kong (China) and Thailand

Top Performing Systems Focus Spending on Basic Education

Source: Japan Ministry of Education

Percent of government education spending

Elementary Tertiary

2014 201620111980 20001960

IndonesiaJapan

0%

70%

35%

Source: Indonesia Ministry of Education and Culture

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan Belgium Germany France Australia USA Netherlands Finland

Since 1965: Japan Leads

Successful Systems Recruit and Develop Best to Be Teachers

In Japan, only 14% of applicants to education

programs are accepted; only about 30–40%

of graduates are hired annually

In Singapore, the government

recruits the top one-third of university

graduates to become teachers

In Korea, only 1 in 20 passes the exams

for employment to become a teacher

In Taiwan, China typically only the top third of

applications are accepted into education

programs which are highly competitive

Top Performers Use More Elaboration, Less Memorization

Source: OECD 2016

Teaching and learning strategies in mathematics around the world

More

memorization

More

elaboration

More student-oriented

instructionMore teacher-directed

instruction

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Taiwan, China

Korea Shanghai, ChinaVietnam

Hong Kong, SAR

United Kingdom

United StatesFinland

Macau, SAR

OECD average

Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade

Source: Graham and Kelly 2017

Indonesia

Tonga

Myanmar – Yangon

Cambodia

Vanuatu

Timor-Leste

Philippines - Cebuano

0% 60%30%

Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade

2010

Cambodia

0% 60%30%

48%

Source: Graham and Kelly 2017

Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade

2012

Cambodia

0% 60%30%

33%

Source: Graham and Kelly 2017

• Pregnancy

• Birth

• Family support

• Child health &

development

• Preschool

Ensure that Children are Ready to Learn in School

Actions across Policy Domains Drive Learning

Aligninstitutions to ensurebasic

conditions for learning

Ensurethat children are ready

to learn in school

Assessstudents to diagnose issues

and inform instruction

Concentrateeffective, equity-minded

public spending on basic education

Select and supportteachers throughout their careers

to allow them to focusonthe classroom

Align institutions to ensure basic conditions for learning

1

Concentrate effective, equity-minded public spending on basic

2

Select & support teachers to allow them to focus on classroom

3

Ensure that Children are Ready

to Learn in School4

Assess students to inform instruction

5

Thank you!

Harry Patrinos@hpatrinos