educause 2012 talk
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots: A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized Learning
Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Motivations:• Increased access to
opportunity• Hard problems• Impatient actors• Enlightened self interest
My frame of reference
Private sector:• Strategy and management
consultant• Software entrepreneur• MBA
Nonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park
Service, charter schools, and health services
• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
In the end, the American dream is not a sprint, or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families don’t always cross the finish line in the span
of one generation. But each generation passes on to the next the fruits of their labor.
Julian CastroMayor, San Antonio
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Education is the pathway to opportunity in the U.S.
Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”
Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated)
Education of parents
Race of head of household
Health status of parents
State of residence
Female-headed household
Financial assets
Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms)
30%
100%
14%
8%5%
3%
1-28%12-39%
Intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher education is not equitably distributed
Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.
Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Economic competitiveness argues for more education as well
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)
55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)
1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)
2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)
3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)
4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)
5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)
6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)
7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)
8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)
9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)
10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)
11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)
12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)
13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)
14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)
15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)
Degree attainment is flat
7Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three challenges for the next decade
AccessEnrollment caps
Course availability“Non-traditional”
new normal
CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student
ability to pay
QualityLow completion
ratesUnclear learning
outcomes
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three challenges for the next decade
AccessEnrollment caps
Course availability“Non-traditional”
new normal
CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student
ability to pay
QualityLow completion
ratesUnclear learning
outcomes
0
5
10
15M
Private 4 year
Public 4 year
Public 2 year
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
27%
11%
10%
29%
1987-1993
5%
4%
9%
49%
1993-2001
22%
18%
19%
184%
2001-2009
62%
37%
43%
447%
1987-2009
For-profit
Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009Period % Change Total %
Change
Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database
We have made impressive strides in improving college access…
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
…but enrollment growth may be reversing
Source: L.A. Times; Washington Monthly
Survey offers dire picture of state's two-year collegesAugust 29, 2012 Carla Rivera
More than 470,000 community college students are beginning the fall semester on waiting lists, unable to get into the courses they need, according to a survey of California's two-year colleges that captures a system struggling amid severe budget cuts….
Five Reasons College Enrollments Might Be DroppingOctober 24, 2012 Richard Vedder
…state by state, enrollments appear to be down, mostly at community colleges and at some four-year schools as well. In Ohio, preliminary numbers from the Board of Regents of the University System of Ohio show a 5.9 percent decline, and the drop-off at one community college (Hocking) was so precipitous (more than 20 percent) that it had to dismiss staff. In other Midwest states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, numbers at some institutions have fallen as well. In Arizona, one large Tucson- area community college (Pima) shows a decline of 11 percent...
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
“Hidden capacity constraints” extend beyond formal enrollment caps
Community College Students
Latino Students
California Students
20 and 21 Year Old Students
32
55
47
45
Percent of Community College Student Unable to Enroll in One or More Courses Because Full
Source: Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive,Field dates: September 27th through November 4th, 2010
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional
75%
25%
“Traditional”• Enter college
directly after high school
• Enroll fulltime• Financially
dependent on their parents
“Non-traditional”• Financially
independent (>50%)
• Have dependents of their own (27%)
• Work full time (38%)
• Enroll part time (49%)
Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three challenges for the next decade
AccessEnrollment caps
Course availability“Non-traditional”
new normal
CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student
ability to pay
QualityLow completion
ratesUnclear learning
outcomes
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Too few students are graduating
Source: NELS 1988
Total Private not-for-profit
Public 4-year
Private for-profit
Public 2-year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bachelor'sAssociate'sCertificate
Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years
53%
73%
61%55%
38%
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Developmental education is one of the drivers of low completion rates
Referred Enroll, don't complete
Complete sequence
Pass gatekeeper0
102030405060708090
100Never enroll17%
17%10%
66%
83%
SOURCE: Bailey, et al. Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education sequences in community colleges. CCRC (2009).
What happens to students who test 3 levels below
college level math?
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
What students are actually learning is being questioned
45 percent of students “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Employers give recent graduates decidedly low marks on essential learning outcomes
Source: AAC&U
Teamwork
Ethical Judgment
Oral Communication
Critical Thinking
Writing
Self-direction
Global Knowledge
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
39%
38%
30%
22%
26%
23%
18%
17%
19%
23%
31%
37%
42%
46%
Not well preparedVery well prepared
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three challenges for the next decade
AccessEnrollment caps
Course availability“Non-traditional”
new normal
CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student
ability to pay
QualityLow completion
ratesUnclear learning
outcomes
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The public story on tuition growth is not pretty
Source: New York Times
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
States are reducing per student funding to colleges
Source: TIME: Degrees of Difficultyhttp://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/degrees-of-difficulty/?pcd=teaser
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
For-profit
Private 4 year
Public 4 year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1%
6%
17%
32%
Public 2 year
Total %Change
1999-2009
The reality is cost per FTE at publics have only increased modestly
Per FTE Expenditures by Sector, Indexed and Inflation-Adjusted, 1999-2009
Note: All figures are real and adjusted for inflation The sub-set of private research institutions experienced even larger growth in spending per FTE of 29% over this period Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The effect on students is inescapable
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as quoted in Bill Bowen’s Tanner Lectures
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three challenges for the next decade
AccessEnrollment caps
Course availability“Non-traditional”
new normal
CostsTuition increasing 3% over inflationState budget cutsLimited student
ability to pay
QualityLow completion
ratesUnclear learning
outcomes
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Meet Brianna
Started technical college with AP credit in chemistry and a clear goal: to become a veterinarian
Ambition: 2-year associates degree Her bet on finishing college? 100%
Estimated cost of attendance: ~$15,000 Expected family contribution: $2,500
• Mom and Dad paid it Total aid package (including loans): $8,000 Unmet need: $4,500
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS; photo CC-BY/NC (Joy Banwejee)
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Brianna Took 12 Credits and Worked 30 Hours/Week
Schedule:5:30 am Wake up6:30 am Commute to school7:30 am – 11:00 pm Attend class, drive to work11:00 am – 1:00 pm Work job #1, drive to school1:30 pm – 5:30 pm Attend class, drive to work6:00 pm – 11:30 pm Work job #2, drive home12:00 am Take muscle relaxant and try
to sleep
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Brianna’s College Experience
“More than a couple of times, I fell asleep in my 7:30 am class…I'd get there and I'm trying to stay awake and I'm doing the ‘head-bob’ and before you know it my head is in my book …and every once in awhile you get a wake-up with a puddle of drool.”
At the end of her first term:• Course #1: D• Course #2: C• Course #3: D• Course #4: Withdrew• CUMULATIVE GPA: 0.750
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
What’s it like to be dismissed?
“It was kinda…it was almost kinda like a relief cause it’s like, you know, “Wow! This is, you know, it’s over,” but then again, it was, it was pretty stressful cause it was like, “You know, I went through all this work, and I accomplished nothing. I failed.” It was kinda a little bit of both, and it actually hit me pretty hard cause I was just crushed. I was like, ‘Wow! I’m never gonna get anywhere. I’ve got, you know, pretty much no hope for the future’...
The bottom is scary, and you just don’t really feel like you’re really worth anything, and you’re trying to get back on your feet; and you just beat yourself up cause it’s like, you know…”
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
How ready are traditional institutions to navigate the new reality?
Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.
“In the view of many college and university presidents, the three main factors in higher education—cost, quality, and access—exist in what we call an iron triangle. These factors are linked in an unbreakable reciprocal relationship, such that any change in one will inevitably impact the others.”
- Public Agenda research on opinions of higher education presidents
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Or said another way…
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three leading innovations in personalized learning
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Bigfoot
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Bigfoot = undeniably better learning outcomes at repeatably lower costs
I have come to believe that “now is the time”—that far greater access to the internet, improvements in
internet speed, reductions in storage costs, and other advances have combined with changing mindsets to
suggest that online learning, in many of its manifestations, can lead to good learning outcomes
at lower cost.
Bill BowenPresident Emeritus, Princeton University
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The core idea: the two-sigma problem
Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Closing the loop on learning
LearningObjectives
Assessment
Student Data
Content
Alignment Alignment
Alignment
“What don’t I know?”
“How do I learn this?”
“How did I do?”
LearningFeedback
Loop
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Example: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Example: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
Source: Ithaka
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Example: National Center for Academic Transformation (NCAT)
38
Before redesign After redesign
Student success (C or better)
Before redesign After redesign
Costs per student
Source: National Center for Academic Transformation
+50%
-30%
Changing the Equation Initiative
• Redesign full developmental math sequence based on proven model
• 100,000+ students at 35 community colleges
• Technology partners include Pearson MyMathLab, ALEKS, Hawkes Learning System, etc.
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Example: Arizona State University and Knewton
Source: ASU
The outcome: After one semester of use with over 5,000 remedial math students at ASU, withdrawal rates dropped by 50% and pass rates went from 66% to 75%. Half the class finished 4 weeks early.
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
What carries the flipped classroom into general education?
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Goldilocks
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Per semester credits:4 year: >=155 year: 12-146 year: <12
Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
46
714
33
Community college educational costs by course type
Courses taken by non-completers*
Excess courses taken by completers* beyond minimum
Courses failed/withdrawn by completers*
Courses contributing to a degree taken by
completers*
* Completers defined as students seeking a degree who earned a certificate, Associate’s, or Bachelor’s degree within 6 years of enrolling.Source: Forthcoming report “The Institutional Costs of Student Attrition” by Delta Cost Project, 2012, and “Winning by Degrees” by McKinsey & Company, 2010
There are real costs to poor advising and degree planning
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Example: ASU’s eAdvisor
Source: ASU
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Structured pathways to graduation
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Just in Time Enrollment Management
Source: ASU
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
1. Finances (Scholarship renewal, to do’s, SAP)
2. Calculated Index (HS GPA, Test Scores)
3. Academic Status Report4. eAdvisor (off Track)5. My ASU Usage
(engagement compared to their cohort)
6. GPA7. Probation8. Transcripts Sent (excluding medical, law schools)9. Enrollment Holds
Student risk prediction and alerts
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
22%
39%1.2%
39%
2007 Status
46%
47%
8%
2008 Status
On Track
Off Track
On track by override
Completed
81%
13%7%
2009 Status
Impact on student progress
91%
5.8%0.1% on track by
override
2010 Status
Source: ASU
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Model Program Pathway Design
Program learning goals clearly defined and aligned with outcome requirements
Program pathways well structured and prescribed
Students’ progress toward program requirements closely monitored; timely feedback provided
“On-ramps” help students choose a program of study
Incentives for students to enter and complete programs
Strong alignment with high school and ABE
Source: Davis Jenkins, Community College Research Center
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
WICHE PAR Framework
For new students: Each concurrent enrollment lowers chance of
passing ~10% Each prior term withdrawal reduces passing by
~50% Each additional course completed increases
likelihood of remaining enrolled 13% for Associate and 23% for Bachelor students
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Moonshots
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962,
at Rice University, Houston, Texas
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962,
at Rice University, Houston, Texas
…provide high-quality, affordable education at scale…
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Breakthrough delivery models
• Completion Rate: 50% Associate’s completion rate within three years for Pell Grant-eligible students; 75% within six years for Bachelor’s
• Price and Cost: $5,000 or less per year in student price and institutional costs
• Scale: 5,000 additional students by year 5 with path to 50,000
• Quality: Clear definition and monitoring process
Target Performance Metrics
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Examples of innovators pursuing high-quality, affordable degree programs
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
What are common features of these models?
Prior learning assessment
Competency-based progression
Diagnostics assessment and adaptive learning
Badges, interim milestones, and motivational science
Connective media and peer-to-peer learning
Learning analytics and targeting scarce faculty and support resources
Online/blended delivery
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Three leading innovations in personalized learning
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
A parting challenge
Costs
Today
Education(Access + Quality + Completion)
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The great risk
Costs
Today
Tomorrow
Education(Access + Quality + Completion)
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The great opportunity
Costs
Today
Tomorrow
Education(Access + Quality + Completion)
Tomorrow
© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
What will it take?
• Business model innovation AND learning model innovation
• Promoters of innovation AND protectors of quality• Reimagining instructional model AND deep faculty
engagement• High technology AND high touch• Design AND scaling• Traditional institutions AND breakthrough models
Thank You
Josh Jarrett, Deputy DirectorEducation – Postsecondary Success
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have
done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena…who at the best knows in the end the triumph of
high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those
cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910