KnowledgeInfrastructuresfortheAnthropocene

PaulN.EdwardsSchoolofInformationandDept.ofHistory

UniversityofMichigan

Forthcoming2017inTheAnthropoceneReview,specialissueonTheTechnosphereManuscriptasacceptedforpublication

OnlineFirstversionavailablenow

Thepost-1950GreatAcceleration(Steffenetal.,2015)representstheaggregateeffectofanexpanding“technosphere,”conceptualizedbyPeterHaff(2014)asanalogoustothebiosphereorthelithosphere.Haffcharacterizesthetechnosphereastheglobal,“interlinkedsetofcommunication,transportation,bureaucraticandothersystems,”includinghumancomponents,that“acttometabolizefossilfuelsandotherenergyresources”(Haff,2014).Likeahugesuper-organism,thetechnosphereseeksonlytosurviveandgrow.Throughmarkets,thetechnosphereinternalizesrawmaterialsandenergysupplies,butitexternalizeswasteasavaluelessnuisancetobeflushedintotheglobalcommons.Thebiospheremaintainsametabolicequilibrium,collectingvirtuallyallofitsenergyfromcurrent(solar)inputsviaphotosynthesisandrecyclingnearlyallofitswastes(Odum,1991).Instarkcontrast,alargeproportionofthetechnosphere’senergysupplycomesfromirreplaceablefossilsources,whilemuchofitswasteistoxic,inorganic,and/orlong-lasting,generatedinformsandquantitiesthatoverwhelmthebiosphere’scapacitytoabsorbthem.

Thetechnospheremetabolizesnotonlyenergyandmaterials,butalsoinformationandknowledge.Itingestssomeasinputandproducesmoreasoutput.Globalstoragecapacityinallforms—areasonableproxyforinformation—grewfrom2.6billiongigabytesin1986to295billiongigabytesin2007,acompoundannualgrowthrateof39%peryear(HilbertandLópez,2011).FromlibrariestotheInternet,hugeinformationinfrastructuresorganizedandfueledthatgrowth.

“Informationmetabolism”isnomeremetaphor:ifcloudcomputingwereacountry,itwouldbetheworld’ssixthlargestconsumerofelectricity(GreenpeaceInternational,2014).Thismetabolismalsogenerateswaste,intheformofdatathatareneverused.Inrecentyears,however,“dataexhaust”—theinformationgeneratedasasideeffectofroutinecomputationalprocesses,suchasrecordsofsearchterms,webclicks,andsocialmediaactivity—hascometobeseenasaresourcethatcanbe“mined”by“bigdata”analysistechniquestoproducenewinsights(Brunk,2001;Mayer-SchönbergerandCukier,2013).

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Figure1.TheGreatAcceleration:Earthsystemtrends.

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Figure2.TheGreatAcceleration:Socioeconomictrends.Source:WillSteffen.

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ThewidelycirculatedGreatAccelerationgraphs(Figures1and2)illustraterapidpost-1950growthindozensofsocioeconomicandEarthsystemvariables,fromurbanpopulations,wateruse,andenergyconsumptiontoanthropogenicgreenhousegases,oceanacidification,andnitrogenpollutionfromfertilizerrunoff.Theveryexistenceofthesegraphsillustratestherapidgrowthinanothervariable:humanknowledge.Since1925,thenumberofcitedscientificpublications(amediocre,butusefulproxyforscientificknowledge)hasdoubledevery8-10years(BornmannandMutz,2015).Especiallysince1950,manygovernmentsandlargecorporationshaveinstitutionalizedandroutinizedscientificresearchandtechnologicaldevelopment.Oneneednotdenythesophisticationofpreviouseras’understanding(BonneuilandFressoz,2016)oradoptatriumphalistEnlightenmentoptimismtoacceptthatcomparedwith1950,weknowmuchmoretoday.Wehavemuchmoredataandmuchbetterunderstandingnotonlyofthenaturalworld,butalsoofhumaneconomies,populations,wastes,andnearlyeverythingelse.

BoththetechnosphereandtheAnthropoceneitselfarecolossalabstractions,obscuringmessydetailsandcontradictionsaswellasdifferentialcosts,benefits,andresponsibilities(Haraway,2015).Yetasunifyingframeworksforgraspingextremelycomplexinteractions,theycanalsobringclarityandcoherence.Leavingcritiquetoothers,thisarticlefocusesonwhatIwillcall“Anthropoceneknowledge”aboutlarge-scale,long-term,anthropogenicenvironmentalchange.Buildingonextensivehistoricalresearch,thearticleasks:WheredidAnthropoceneknowledgecomefrom?Whatkindsofknowledgeinfrastructuresmighthelptoaccountforandultimatelytorefashionthetechno-metabolicprocessescurrentlypushingEarthsystemspastthelimitsofa“safeoperatingspaceforhumanity”(Rockströmetal.,2009)?Howcouldrecycling“dataexhaust”helptoreduceconsumption,waste,andenvironmentaldamage?

Monitoring,modeling,memory:abriefhistoryofAnthropoceneknowledge

VirtuallyeverythingweknowabouttheAnthropoceneasageophysical,ecological,andsocialphenomenoncomestousfromscientificknowledgeinfrastructuresbuiltinthe20thcentury.

Knowledgeinfrastructuresare“robustnetworksofpeople,artifacts,andinstitutionsthatgenerate,share,andmaintainspecificknowledgeaboutthehumanandnaturalworlds”(Edwards,2010).Examplesofwell-functioningknowledgeinfrastructuresincludenationalcensuses,weatherforecasting,andtheCentersforDiseaseControl.Likephysicalinfrastructures,suchascontainertransportorcellulartelephony,theydisplayqualitiesofmodularity,scaling,andnetworkedorganization.Theyarecomposedofmanyinteracting,yetlargelyindependentgroupsandinstitutions,eachwithitsownimperatives,values,resources,revenuestreams,andtemporalorientations(Ellenetal.,2011;Edwardsetal.,2013;Borgmanetal.,2014).Myusageherestressesthe“routine,reliable,andwidelyshared”aspectsofinfrastructure.Itakeapragmaticviewof“knowledge”asusefulunderstandingofpatternsandcausalrelationships,expressedinasharedvocabulary(includingmathandstatistics),andbackedbydata(evidence).

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Manyscientificknowledgeinfrastructuresshareacommonsetoffunctions. Theymonitor1

featuresofinterest,modelcomplexsystemstofindandtestcausalrelationships,andrecorddatainmemorysystemstotrackchangeovertime.Datafromsystematicmonitoringgroundsourawarenessofglobalenvironmentalandsocialchange.Forexample,weatherrecordsdatingtothemid-19thcenturysupporttoday’sknowledgeofclimatechange(Edwards,2010).Beginningwiththe1957-58InternationalGeophysicalYear(IGY),andspurredbyColdWargeopolitics,manysciencessoughtplanetary-scaleknowledgebyconstructingpermanentglobalmonitoringnetworksonland,intheair,atsea,andinouterspace—apatternIhavecalled“infrastructuralglobalism”(Edwards,2006).Inthe1970s,asawarenessofenvironmentalproblemsmounted,thesenetworksgrewinscopeandimportance,oftenlooselyorganizedattheinternationallevelbysuchagenciesastheUNEnvironmentProgrammeandtheInternationalCouncilofScientificUnions(ICSU).Acrossthesametimeperiod,socialsystemsaroundtheworldwerealsoincreasingly“instrumented”with“sensors”ofmanykinds,suchasopinionpollsandobligatoryreportingofdemographic,economic,health,agricultural,andothersocialdatatonationalgovernmentsandtheUnitedNations(Burke,2012).

ModelinghasplayedanequallyimportantroleingeneratingAnthropoceneknowledge.Simulationmodelscantesttheoreticalunderstandingofcomplex,interactiveprocesses—especiallythoseforwhichexperimentalmethodsareinfeasible,suchasglobalclimateortectonicplates.Combinedwithempiricaldata,modelingcanexplainthepastandhelpprojectthefutureconsequencesofbothhumanandnaturalchanges,suchasozonedepletionorclimatechange.Modelingcancreatecross-talkamongscientificdisciplines.Forexample,inthe1970s,theriseofclimatechangeasaresearchconcernpromptedthefirstmeetingsonenvironmentalbiogeochemistry,andecologistsbegantomodelthecarboncycle.Inthesocialsciences,behavioraleconomicscombinedexperimentalmethodswithinsightsfromcognitiveandsocialpsychologytorevisesimplistic“rationalactor”models(AkerlofandKranton,2010;Kahneman,2011).

TheAnthropoceneconceptisinherentlytemporalandcomparative(Zalasiewiczetal.,2015).SoAnthropoceneknowledgedependscruciallyonlong-termmemory.Datacollectedbypreviousgenerations,usinginstruments,standards,andtechniquesthathaveevolvedcontinuallyovermanydecades,mustbealignedwithdatatakenmorerecentlytocreateacoherentlong-termrecord.Therefore,scientificmemoryrequiresmetadata,suchasinformationaboutwhere,when,andhowmeasurementsweretaken.Metadataareoftenincompleteorotherwiseimperfect;totheextentthatadditionalmetadatacanberecovered,dataimagesofthepastaresubjecttoongoingchange(Edwardsetal.,2011).

Bythe1960s,infrastructuralglobalismhadbecomeaprominentfeatureofmanyEarthsciences.IGYideashadbeguntoestablishcommongroundamongthemthroughits“singlephysicalsystemhypothesis,”harbingeroftoday’s“Earthsystemscience.”Thepatternofinfrastructuralglobalismisclearestwithrespecttoenvironmentalandsocialmonitoringand

Manyotherlegitimate,importantmodesofknowingtheworldexist,andsometimes1

conflictwithscientificunderstanding(Hulme,2009).Inmyview,onlythescientificmodehasbeencapableofenvironmentalanalysisattheglobalscale.

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memory.Internationalnetworksmadeglobaldatathroughcollection,standardization,andsharing.Withthesesystemsinplace,scientistsproceededtomakedataglobal,creatingrich,long-termglobaldataimagesfromheterogeneoussourcesthroughcarefulcomparisonandadjustment(Edwards,2010).Lessobviously,modelingofAnthropoceneconcernsalsoplayedaroleininfrastructuralglobalism.KnowledgeintegrationeffortssuchastheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(Tayloretal.,2011),theEarthSystemModelingFramework(Valckeetal.,2016),andtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeassessments(IPCC,2013)transformedmodelingfromacraftenterprisetoawidelyaccepted,ifstillcontroversial,elementofknowledgeinfrastructureintheEarthsystemsciences.

ParadigmsforAnthropoceneknowledgeinfrastructures

Whatkindsofknowledgeinfrastructuresmighthelptomitigatethetechnosphere’senvironmentallydestructivedisequilibrium?

Inafewimportantcases,humanityhassuccessfullyappliedknowledgegainedfromtheapproachesdescribedabovetoreduceorevenreverseenvironmentaldamage.Forexample,inthe1950s,worldwidemonitoringoffalloutfromatmospherictestsofnuclearweaponsdemonstratedtheglobalspreadofdangerousradionuclides,raisingalarmaboutpotentialconsequencesforbothhumanhealthandnaturalecosystems.Theseconcernsledtothe1963LimitedTestBanTreatyprohibitingallbutundergroundnucleartests.Thebanwouldnothavebeenpoliticallypossibleintheabsenceofseismicandatmosphericmonitoringnetworksthatpermittedtheremotedetectionofweaponstestswithoutintrusiveinspections.Meanwhile,scientificmonitoringoffalloutandbomb-generatedradiocarbon(C14)providedunexpecteddataandinsightsintoatmosphericcirculationandthecarboncycle(Edwards,2012).Asasecondexample,thescienceofchlorofluorocarbonchemistryraisedthealarmoveranthropogenicozonedepletion.WhentheglobalozonemonitoringnetworkdetectedtheAntarctic“ozonehole,”politicalactionswiftlyfollowed:theViennaConvention(1985)andtheMontrealProtocol(1987),whichbannedmanyozone-depletingchemicals.Asadirectresult,theozonelayerhasstabilizedsinceabout2005,andisexpectedtorecoverentirelyinthenextfewdecades.Afinalexamplemightbethe2015ParisAgreementonclimatechange.Weakerthanmanyhadhoped,theParisAgreementstillrepresentsamajorsteptowarddecarbonizingtheglobaleconomyandavoidingtheworstscenariosofanthropogenicclimatechange.

OnemodelforAnthropoceneknowledgeinfrastructuresmightthusbetheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,whoseassessmentsformtheknowledgebasefornegotiationsundertheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).Honedoveralmost30yearsthroughfiveiterations(1990,1995,2001,2007,and2013),theIPCCknowledgeassessmentprocessisdoubtlessthemostinclusiveoneeverdevised.Itsdesignerssoughttoreducelagsinsocialandinstitutionallearningbybringingstakeholdersintoknowledgeproductiondirectly,throughanextensivepeerreviewprocess.IPCCprotocolsinvitenotonlyscientists,butalsogovernmentsandnon-governmentalorganizations,tocommentindetailonanyaspectofdraftIPCCreports.IPCCauthorsarethenrequiredtorespondtoallofthemanythousandsofcommentstheyreceive.TheIPCCprocesshelpedcreateglobal,interdisciplinaryscientificcommunitiesorientedtoacommon

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problem,anditestablishedbenchmarkingtechniquesthatbroughtadegreeofstandardizationtoclimatemodelinganddataanalysis(Tayloretal.,2011).Finally,itresultedinaremarkabledatasharinginfrastructure,theEarthSystemGridFederation(Williamsetal.,2013).

Onthedownside,thetime-intensiveIPCCprocessbecameaheavyburdenformanyresearchscientists,resultinginfatigue,careerstalls,leadershipturnover,andproblemsrecruitingco-authorsforthereports’manylongchapters.Thelong,difficulthistoryofglobalclimatenegotiations—initiatednearly30yearsago—reinforcesthewell-knownlessonsthatknowledgealonecannotdictatepolicychoices,andthatpoliticallycontroversialknowledgeoftengeneratesconfusing(ifsometimesvaluable)counter-expertiseaswellasmotivatedreasoning onthepartofthosewhostandtolosesomething.Finally,asmanycriticshave2

observed,knowledgeabouttheglobalscalecanproveverydifficulttotranslateintoactionableknowledgeatnationalorlocalscales(Hulme,2009;Hulme,2010;Becketal.2014).Asaresult,downscalingknowledgehasbecomeacentralfocusoftheclimateresearchcommunity(Edwards,2016a).Examplesincludeclimatechangeprojectionsatthescaleofcountiesandcityregions(alreadyinusebycityplanners,publichealthagencies,andwatershedandportmanagers)andstatisticalassessmentsofhowmuchclimatechangecontributestoindividualextremeweatherevents(NationalAcademyofSciences,2016).

TheIPCCassessmentapproachistheapotheosisof20th-centuryinfrastructuralglobalism:thedeliberateconstructionofworld-scale,quasi-centralizedobservingandanalysissystems.Inthe21stcentury,newapproachestoAnthropoceneknowledgemightcomefromother,muchmoredistributedmodesofproduction.Theanalogytowasterecyclinginecosystems,discussedabove,suggestsonesuchapproach:couldthetechnospherelearntorecyclewasteinformation?

Amongthegreatdiscoveriesofthelate20thcenturywasthatvirtuallyallinformationprocessesnotonlyusedata,butalsogeneratedataaboutusersanduses,oftenasabyproduct(Zuboff,1988;Brunk,2001).Today,“dataexhaust”isproducedbymostonlineactivity,fromwebsearchesanddownloadstosocialmediapostsandshopping.Analogoustothebiosphere’sreuseoforganicwastes,numerousonlinesystems—Google’ssearchalgorithms,recommendersystemsfromNetflixandAmazon,etc.—recyclethesebyproductsofintelligenthumanactivitytocreatemoreintelligentartificialbehavior.

The“mining”ofdataexhausttodetectpatterns,trends,andindividualpreferencesistransformingtherelationshipbetweendesigners,builders,marketersandconsumers,aswellascivilsociety,worldwide.Itisalsotransformingscience.In2014,theCentersforDiseaseControlawardeda$75,000prizeforimprovedpredictionofinfluenzadynamics.Thewinningscientistsdeployedadataassimilationsystemexplicitlybasedonweatherforecastingtechniques.TheycombinedaCDCsimulationmodelofdiseasespreadwithreal-timeGoogledatafromflu-relatedsearches,producingthemostaccuratereal-timeforecastofthe2012-13fluseason(Shamanetal.,2013).Otherresearchershaveusedmobilephone

Inpsychology,“motivatedreasoning”referstoindividuals’tendencytodefendtheir2

existingbeliefsagainstdisconfirmingevidence,usingvariousapparentlyrationalstrategies.

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locationandmovementtostudytheinterplaybetweenchangingweatherandaggregatesocialbehaviorincities,andinmanyotherwaysaswell(Sagletal.,2012).AppssuchasGoogleMaps,makinguseofsmartphones’GPSsensorstotracktheirowners’movement,alreadyhelptooptimizeurbantrafficflowsbywarningdriversofslowdownsandprovidingalternateroutes.

Theseandsimilarinnovativetechniqueshavebeendescribedasanemerging“fourthparadigm”ofdata-intensivescience.(Theotherthreearetheory,experiment,andsimulation.)Followingthepatternofinfrastructuralglobalism,massive,high-resolutionsensornetworksprovidemore,finer-grainedenvironmentalinformation(Heyetal.,2009).Undermorerecentapproaches,scientistsseekpatternsopportunisticallyinlargedatasetscreatedforotherreasons;conductmeta-analysesofexistingstudies;andopenupthevastexistingstoresof“darkdata”availablefrompastresearch(Hamptonetal.,2013).Inthelongrun,theseapproachespromisenewwaystomonitor,analyze,andpotentiallytooptimizethetechnosphere’senvironmentalimpacts.However,thedatautopiaenvisionedbysomefacesahostofdifficult,sometimesirresolvableissues,includingdatafriction,dataownership,personalprivacy,andmetadataquality(Edwardsetal.,2012). Stillother,verydifferentmodelsforAnthropoceneknowledgeinfrastructuresmightbethepracticalsciencesofaccountingandlogistics.Nearlyoppositetothetop-down,globalistapproachsymbolizedbytheIPCC,thesesciencesoperateonthescaleoffirmsandotherorganizations.

Accountingsimplymeansknowingwhatonetakesin,whatonespends,andhowone’sassetsmoveandchange.Whetherassetsareconceivedasmoney,people,equipment,orcarbon,accurateaccountingisthefirststeptooptimizingprocesses.Recently,aremarkableprogramoflong-termsocio-ecologicalresearch(LTSER)hasdevelopedmaterialandenergyflowaccounting(MEFA)methodstotrackenergy,rawmaterials,andwastesovermanydecades,atscalesrangingfromindividualcitiestobioregions.Makinguseofmanykindsofdata,comparativeanalysisoffarmingpracticesinAustriaandKansasbetween1880and1940(forexample)revealedthat

whereasOldWorldfarmshadabundanthumanandanimallabourbutashortageofland,GreatPlainsfarmshadexcesslandandashortageoflabourandlivestock….OldWorldcommunitieskeptmoreanimalsthanneededforfoodandlabourtosupplymanurethatmaintainedcroplandfertility.GreatPlainsfarmersusedfewanimalstoexploitrichgrasslandsoils,returninglessthanhalfofthenitrogentheyextractedeachyear.Relyingonastockpiledendowmentofnitrogen,theyproducedstupendoussurplusesformarketexport,butwatchedcropyieldsdeclinebetween1880and1940….Kansasfarmersfacedasoilnutrientcrisisbythe1940s,onethattheysolvedinthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcenturybyimportingfossilfuels.AustrianandGreatPlainsagricultureconvergedthereafter,withdramaticallyincreasedproductivitybasedonoil,dieselfuel,petroleum-basedpesticidesandsyntheticnitrogenfertilisersmanufacturedfromnaturalgas(Singhetal.,2013,269-70).

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Complementingthiscruciallong-termperspective,environmentallyawareaccountingcanoptimizesociotechnicalprocessesthroughsuchmethodsaslifecycleassessment,encompassingallaspectsofaproductionchainfromrawmaterialstoenergytowaste(Lifset,2012).Throughmodelingandstandardizedapproaches,suchassessmentspermitrigorouscomparisonof(forexample)thecarbonfootprintsofdifferentenergyproductionprocesses.Similarlife-cycleapproachesarebeingappliedinthedesignofclosed-loop,zero-wastemanufacturingprocessesandsupplychains(Winkler,2011).Theultimategoal—mimickingthebiosphere’snear-completerecyclingofwaste—willlikelyneverbeachieved,butthesetechniquesmayofferanapproximationinsomedomains.

Emergingpracticesof“carbonaccounting”attempttobringgreenhousegasemissionsfromfossilfuelsintotheeconomybypricingthem,whetherthroughtaxesonconsumption,cap-and-tradesystems,orwellheadfees.Otherexamplesofanaccounting-orientedapproachareclimateriskvaluationtools.Thesesystems,asenvisionedbytheTaskForceonClimate-relatedFinancialDisclosures(Elliott,2015),wouldgeneratestandardizedmeasuresofcorporations’exposuretorisksfromclimatechange,suchas“strandedassets”(e.g.coalandoilreservesthatcannotbemined,orbeachresorthotelsthreatenedbyrisingsealevels).Suchtoolscouldencouragefinancialmarketstointernalizeclimatechangeconcernsviathepricingofstocksandbonds.

Evenwithoutcarbonpricing,the“carbonfootprint”increasinglyservesasacommonframeworkforassessingtheenvironmentalimpactofvirtuallyanyhumanactivityorproduct.Carbonaccountingcreatesakindofcommoncurrency,connectingfossilfuelconsumptiontoforestdestruction,cattlebelches,andrefrigerants.Thenotionof“embodiedcarbon”—thegreenhousegasesgeneratedinmanufacturingandtransportingaproduct—altersthepictureofresponsibilityforemissions:declinesinUSandEuropeancarbonemissionsresultinpartfromtheriseofglobaltrade,whilerisingChineseemissionsstemlargelyfromitsmanufactureofproductsthatareconsumedelsewhere.Currently,mostcarbonmetricsareflawed,gameable,andfragile,aswellasoverlyreductive,coveringonlyafewelementsofenvironmentalconcern(Whitington,2016;Mol,2012;Ascui,2014).Yetinthefuture,routineandstandardizedcarbonaccounting,inconcertwithotheraccountingpractices,mightprovideimportantknowledgerelevanttoreducinghumandamagetoEarthsystems.Ataminimum,suchaccountingwillbeneededtomonitortheParisclimatetreaty.

Thescienceoflogisticsfocusesonsupplychains,especiallytransport,coordination,andstorage.Sincethe1960s,multinationalcorporationshavetransformedtheiroperationsthroughincreasinglypowerfulinformationsystems,developingpreciseandtimelymethodsoftracking,moving,assembling,anddeliveringgoods,services,andfinanceacrossintricateglobalsupplychains(Castells,2000;Cowen,2014).Moreefficientuseofmaterialsandenergyintheserviceofsustainabilitycancomplementtheprimarycorporategoalofcostreduction.Forexample,in2014theIkeaCorporationgot42percentoftheenergyitsretailstoresconsumefromthecompany’sownwindandsolarpowerinstallations,withagoalof100percentby2020.Thecompanymaximizesdirectdeliveryfromsupplierstostores,ratherthantoawarehouse,decreasingtraveltimeandenergyconsumption(TheCSRReport,2015).Inasecondexample,UnitedParcelService(UPS)equippedsomeofits100,000

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deliveryvehicleswith“telematics”sensorsmonitoringspeed,braking,engineperformance,stoptime,andengineperformance.Thetelematicsprogramalsodeployedsensordataasfeedbacktodrivers,retrainingthemtoacceleratemoreslowly,brakemoresmoothly,andreduceidlingtime(UnitedParcelService,2014).Combiningtelematicsdatawithcomputer-optimizedrouting,UPScutfuelusebyadramatic50percentbetween2004and2012.

Optimisticexamplessuchasthosejustofferedareobviouslyoffsetbymanycontraryphenomena:theJevonsparadoxorreboundeffect,bywhichenergysavedinoneprocessisviewedasabonusandimmediatelyre-consumedelsewhere;thelargeandgrowingenergycostsofcomputingitself;economiccompetition,inwhichsuccessfulbutcostlyimprovementsinsustainabilityareconstantlyundercutbylessexpensive,morewastefulalternatives;andtheadversesocialconsequencesofsomemodesofoptimization,suchasincreasedsurveillance,oppressiveworkdiscipline,andthedisintegrationoforganizedlabor.Thetechnosphere,asHaffpicturesit,respondsmainlytoitsown,internal,environmentallydestructivelogic,forwhichsomehaveputforwardtermssuchas“Capitalocene”or“Plantationocene”(Moore,2014;Haraway,2015).Today’sconsumerist,hugelyunequalsocietiescertainlydriveoverheatedgrowth—butachievingaminimallyacceptablestandardoflivingfor9billionpeopleby2050willnotbepossibleunderanyimaginableeconomicsystemwithoutmassiveenvironmentalstress.Perhapsthetechnosphere’shumancomponentscannolongertransformthislogic,soprofoundlyhasitbeenliterallybuiltintotheworldwenowinhabit,withitsenormousincentivestocontinueinabusiness-as-usualmode.Itmayatbestbepossibletosteerit,andconceivablytobuysometime.Nevertheless,evenknowingthis,wemustmaketheeffort.Conclusion

Systemsthinkingisfundamentallyhardforhumanbeings,duetocomplexityandcounterintuitivefeedbacks(Sterman,2008).ThepoweroftheAnthropoceneepochandthetechnosphere,asconceptualtools,liesintheirinsistenceonalarge-scale,long-term,systemicgraspofphenomenatoooftensiloedintoseparatedisciplinesoranalyzedaslocalorshort-termconcerns.Viewedastheproductsofhistoricalknowledgeinfrastructures,theseconceptsalsodrawattentiontoapost-1950“greatacceleration”inscientificunderstanding,driveninlargepartbyrapidadvancesininformationprocessing,fromsensorsanddatacollectiontocomputersimulationandnetworkedresources.Asaresult,avastarrayofsystemsdataisnolongerdifficulttocomeby,whiletoolsforsystemsmodelingarewidelyavailable.Meanwhile,a“fourthparadigm”ofdata-intensivescienceisaddingnewdimensionstomonitoring,modeling,andmemory.Together,thesemethodsofferatleastthepossibilityofknowledgeinfrastructuresbetterabletounderstand,andperhapstobettermanage,thechallengesoftheAnthropoceneandthefailuresofthetechnosphere.

HereIhavearguedthattheglobalistknowledgeinfrastructuresofthe20thcenturywillbecomplementedandextendedthrough21stcenturydata-intensivescience.Wheretheformerwereoftenconstructedinatop-down,purposeful,andaggregativemanner,thelattermaybebuiltbottom-upandopportunistically,drivenbypracticeratherthandesign.BothwillplaykeyrolesinbuildingknowledgethatisusefulanduseablefortheAnthropocene.Blendingsocial“dataexhaust”withphysicalandenvironmentalinformation,

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environmentally-focusedaccountingandlogisticsmighttrimawayexcessenergyandmaterialsinproduction,findnewwaystore-useorrecyclewastes,andreducetoxicbyproducts,greenhousegasemissions,andothernoxiousmetabolites.Willtheseknowledgeinfrastructuressucceed?Canweaffordforthemtofail?

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