edwin gale.egypt guidelines 2012
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Evidence and Guidelines in Diabetes Treatment
Edwin Gale
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Guidelines
1. Where does judgement come from?
2. The rise of the robot physician
3. Guidelines for the politically incorrect
4. The politics of guidelines
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Life is short, The Art [medicine] is long to learn,
Experience may be misleading, And judgement is difficult
Hippocrates
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Where does Judgement come from?
1. Tradition
2. Authority
3. Science
4. Analysis of the evidence
5. The personal factor
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Supportive Model
Based on a long-term personal relationship between patient and physician
Palliation more important than intervention
The role of the physician was often to bear witness:
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Supportive Model
Based on a long-term personal relationship between patient and physician
Palliation more important than intervention
The role of the physician was often to bear witness:
“To cure sometimes, to relieve often, to comfort always”
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Where does Judgement come from?
1. Tradition
2. Authority
• Individual
• Collective
• Geographical
3. Science
4. Analysis of the Evidence
5. The personal factor
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Where does Judgement come from?
1. Tradition
2. Authority
3. Science
• Experiment
• Population studies
• RCTs
4. Analysis of the Evidence
5. The personal factor
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Where does Judgement come from?
1. Tradition
2. Authority
3. Science
• Experiment
• Population studies
• RCTs
4. Analysis of the Evidence
5. The personal factor
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What do we mean by evidence?
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“The concept of „evidence-based medicine‟ has been originally formulated in the English language and it rapidly appeared that the word „evidence‟ as
used by Sackett et al was not easy to be adequately translated in other languages”…
Pierre Lefebvre
What do we mean by evidence?
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The word “evidence” is used in quite different senses, to mean
• The raw material upon which a judgement is made
• The key piece of data which proves the case one way or another
… English Included!
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Often used in the sense that “what I do is evidence based; what other people do is not”
More accurately, it is a technique for making best use of the information available, and for replacing circumstantial (suggestive) evidence with direct (experimental) evidence, generally obtained through RCTs
Evidence-based medicine
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Evidence-based medicine works well for situations involving well-defined patient
groups, binary alternatives, and well defined outcomes…
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You cannot make one good study out of 17 bad studies
Even good information is only relevant in the context (age group, inclusion criteria etc) in which that information was obtained
But…
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The Evidence Gap…
“Evidence-based review … (must) … also be supplemented by value judgments, where the benefits of treatment are weighed against risks and costs in a subjective fashion ...
We realise that others may have different judgments …”
ADA/EASD Consensus, Diabetologia (2009) 52:17-30
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Where does Judgement come from?
1. Tradition
2. Authority
3. Science
• Experiment
• Population studies
• RCTs
4. Analysis of the Evidence
5. The personal factor
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Medical students are trained…
… to share the same knowledge base, and to think and react the same way in the same situation
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The stage beyond training …
To express yourself creatively through what you do
To learn how to do better
To achieve mastery
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Guidelines
1. Where does judgement come from?
2. The rise of the robot physician
3. Guidelines for the politically incorrect
4. The politics of guidelines
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Obesity
Lipids
Patient Doctor
Symptoms, concerns
Advice, treatment
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Before the 1970s, a disease was something that made you ill.
A disease then became something that might turn into something that made you ill
More recently, a disease became something that might turn into something that might make you ill
The Therapeutic Transition
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Obesity
Lipids
Patient
Doctor
Doctor
“But I feel fine”
Advice, treatment
Patient
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Patient
Big Pharma
Doctor
Professional Societies
Doctor
Public health
“But I feel fine”
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Re-elected 1944 BP 200/100 Died of a massive brain haemorrhage 6 months later…
Franklin D Roosevelt (1882-1945)
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“Has resulted in an average of four extra years of life”
C Lenfant, Shattuck Lecture, 2003
“The town that changed America‟s heart”
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“Has resulted in an average of four extra years of life”
C Lenfant, Shattuck Lecture, 2003
“The town that changed America‟s heart”
Risk Factors
Smoking Hypertension Hyperlipidaemia Hyperglycaemia
These have the highest risk
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“Has resulted in an average of four extra years of life”
C Lenfant, Shattuck Lecture, 2003
“The town that changed America‟s heart”
Risk Factors
Smoking Hypertension Hyperlipidaemia Hyperglycaemia
] The Hyperdiseases
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The Hyperdiseases
Defined not by their cause, or by their mechanism, but by their consequences
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All hyperdiseases have circular definitions
The level of BP/Cholesterol/BG that is harmful
Is defined as the level that does harm
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Diabetes is defined by the risk of retinopathy (2 hr value after OGTT)
11 mmol/l
Retinopathy
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Retinopathy
Same result in Arizona,
UK and Egypt
11 mmol/l
Diabetes is defined by the risk of retinopathy (2 hr value after OGTT)
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Arterial disease
11 mmol/l
But what is the glucose threshold for arterial disease?
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Arterial disease
Multiple determinants, absolute risk varies from one population to another
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Arterial disease
? 11 mmol/l
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The robot physician
• The treatment of hyperdisease is based upon analysis of populations
• The cut-off for benefit is hard to define
• The outcomes are probabilistic
• The patient has no symptoms
• The treatment has no visible outcome
• Diagnosis requires no skill
• Doctors aren‟t very good at it
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Guidelines
1. Where does judgement come from?
2. The rise of the robot physician
3. Guidelines for the politically incorrect
4. The politics of guidelines
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Guidelines …
For the politically incorrect
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Guidelines: 5 politically incorrect propositions
1. If you have a guideline, you don‟t have the evidence: if you have the evidence, you don‟t need a guideline
2. Guidelines are an assertion of authority
3. Guidelines extend the boundaries of disease
4. Guidelines aspire to the point of therapeutic futility
5. Guidelines are least reliable in the evaluation of new therapies
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http://www.va.gov/trm/TRMGlossaryPage.asp
What is a guideline?
“A guideline is a statement by which to determine a course of action. A guideline aims to streamline particular processes according to a set routine or sound practice. By definition, following a guideline is never mandatory. Guidelines are not binding and are not enforced”.
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1. The Angelic version
Guidelines help doctors to offer the best, safest and most cost-effective treatment to their patients They are issued as a service to humanity
Why Guidelines are Issued:
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2. The Satanic version
Guidelines are a statement of authority They assert the right of competing organizations to legislate for the diabetes community
Why Guidelines are Issued:
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Do you doubt this assertion?
“Guidelines are a Statement of Authority”
Then ask yourself this question:
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Are guidelines judged according to their scientific quality?
… or according to the status of the organization that issued them?
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Are guidelines judged according to their scientific quality?
… or according to the status of the organization that issued them?
See what I mean?
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“The Satanic version”
There are 3 types of guideline: Ontological Territorial Imperial
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The Ontological Guideline:
“I think, therefore I exist”
René Descartes
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“We issue guidelines, therefore
we exist”
Any professional organisation
The Ontological Guideline:
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…the territorial guideline
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…the territorial guideline
The IDF will define the metabolic
syndrome and diabetes
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…the territorial guideline
The IDF will define the metabolic
syndrome and diabetes
No, EASD and ADA
will!
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The Imperial Guideline:
Reclassifies previously unconsidered
biological variation as disease.
“Plus
Ultra”
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Guidelines Extend Disease
Examples: Hypertension: “Prehypertension” Diabetes: “Prediabetes” Cardiology: The NSTEMI Hepatology: Fatty liver to NAFLD But the prize goes to:
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Guidelines Extend Disease
Examples: Hypertension: “Prehypertension” Diabetes: “Prediabetes” Cardiology: The NSTEMI Hepatology: Fatty liver to NAFLD But the prize goes to: Nephrology: Reduced GFR of ageing becomes CKD!
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“All individuals with a Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months are classified as having chronic kidney disease, irrespective of the presence or absence of kidney damage..
NKF (2002). clinical practice guidelines for chronic kidney disease
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Guidelines do not set out to reduce the boundaries of disease
They set out to increase it
See what I mean?
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According to current guidelines ~95% of the extreme elderly have a cardiovascular
risk factor that requires treatment…
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According to current guidelines ~95% of the extreme elderly have a cardiovascular
risk factor that requires treatment…
… because it might stop them growing old!
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Guidelines: 5 politically incorrect propositions
1. If you have a guideline, you don‟t have the evidence: if you have the evidence, you don‟t need a guideline
2. Guidelines are an assertion of authority
3. Guidelines extend the boundaries of disease
4. Guidelines aspire to the point of therapeutic futility
5. Guidelines are least reliable in the evaluation of new therapies
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The Therapeutic Imperative
By extending the boundaries of disease, guidelines also extend the boundaries of treatment…
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The U-shaped curve
Risks of therapy >risks of disease
Risks of disease >risks of therapy
Therapeutic optimum
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Guidelines define the therapeutic
maximum, not the therapeutic optimum
Risks of therapy >risks of disease
Risks of disease >risks of therapy
Therapeutic optimum
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The therapeutic optimum is a one-person solution
Risks of therapy >risks of disease
Risks of disease >risks of therapy
Therapeutic optimum
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Guidelines: 5 politically incorrect propositions
1. If you have a guideline, you don‟t have the evidence: if you have the evidence, you don‟t need a guideline
2. Guidelines are an assertion of authority
3. Guidelines extend the boundaries of disease
4. Guidelines aspire to the point of therapeutic futility
5. Guidelines are least reliable in the evaluation of new therapies
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Guidelines and new therapies
The global market for drugs for diabetes & lipids was $70.8 billion in 2010* In 2009, an adverse comment by the ASDA/EASD Panel wrote 20% off the share price of GSK Pharmaceutical money is the oxygen upon which academic medicine depends
•IMS Health Midas, December 2010. http://www.imshealth.com/portal/site/ims
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Conflicts of Interest
Professional society meetings depend upon pharmaceutical support The journals benefit from pharmaceutical support Medical education benefits from pharmaceutical support Most of us benefit from pharmaceutical support
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Data access and presentation
The trials are designed by the companies The data are collected and analysed by the companies The companies decide if, where and how the data are published The companies support almost all the experts in a given area directly or indirectly
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The Circuit of Influence
Experts Societies
Guidelines
Pharma
Journals
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The Circuit of Influence
Experts Societies
Guidelines
Pharma
Health administrators
Journals
Audit reimbursement
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What do clinicians want?
1. Access to the best available information and analysis
2. Advice as to best use of this information
3. Common standards of care
4. Best use of resources
5. Better training of young physicians
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Strengths of the current system
An insistence upon good quality information The quest for better evidence Use of clinical expertise in translation of evidence into guidelines Easy access to electronic sources of information
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Weaknesses
Substitutes pseudo-certainty for uncertainty
Open to competing interests (societies, industry)
“One size fits all” recommendations
Easily misused by administrators
Converts individuals into statistics
Promotes the abdication of the clinician
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“The most valuable lesson that knowledge can teach us is that its creation depends
upon a continuous line of human relationships and traditions
that go far back into the past. That continuity is an unbroken thread.
It links cultures and peoples; it brings tolerance and understanding;
it delivers hope and compassion”
Richard Horton (2004)
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We are the people we treat.
We are defined by the way we look after them