01-31

:

- 1 -

1970

.

,

,

.

.

1970

.

,

, .

, ,

, ,

.

.

.

, ,

- 2 -

.

,

.

.

,

,

.

1970

.

.

,

.

1970

,

.

,

,

.

,

- 3 -

.

.

, 1980

.

.

,

,

.

.

.

1970

,

.

.

.

- 4 -

,

.

, .

.

.

.

.

,

.

,

.

.

.

, ,

.

- 5 -

.

,

,

.

, .

,

.

,

,

.

.

.

,

- 6 -

.

, 1970

.

() .

, 1970

. 1970

, 80%

,

. , 1998

25% , 50%

.

,

,

.

,

.

,

, ,

- 7 -

.

,

.

,

.

.

. ,

,

.

,

,

,

. ,

GDP ,

,

.

.

- 8 -

.

, ,

. ,

,

.

,

.

.

,

. ,

, , ,

.

. :

,

- 9 -

.

,

, ,

.

1990

,

.

.

1990 ,

.

.

,

.

, 1990

- 10 -

.

.

,

,

,

,

.

- i -

- -

. 1

. 6

1. 7

2. 9

3. 10

4. 12

. 16

1. 16

2. 19

3. 23

4. 26

5. 28

. 1

36

1. 37

2. 40

3. 44

- ii -

4. 49

5. 51

. 56

1. 56

2. 58

3. 62

4. 64

5. 67

6. 73

. : 77

84

- iii -

- -

13

17

1985 18

20

22

25

27

: 37

: 198199

38

(%) 41

(%) 42

64

66

1

.

1978

11 3

,

(),

.

.

1970

,

. ()

(marketization)

.

,

, ,

1992

(market socialism)

.

2

. 1978

80%

,

.

()

.

,

.

()

.

, ,

.

,

,

.

.

3

.

,

.

,

,

.

.

1980

(big bang)

.

,

1980

.

,

.

4

.

.

,

.

.

.

.

.

50

,

, ,

,

.

, (marketization)

5

GNP

.

.

1970

.

,

, .

, ,

, ,

.

.

6

.

.

.

,

,

,

big bang

.

, ,

.

,

.

.

7

1.

1970

,

() .

.1)

(coalition)

,

.

1956

(195859) (196676) ()

,

.2) ()

1) (H. Harding) 1976

(196676) 4

,

3

. ,

,

. H. Harding, China's Second Revolution

(Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1987).

2) 195961 3

1,400 2,600

. 196875 1,200

8

.

, .

1976

.

1976 ()

() ()

.

.

,

. 1970

.

, .

8

69% 9 , 29 25

1 . C. Riskin,

China's Political Economy (New York: Oxford University Press,

1988).

9

.

2.

15 (195357)

,

,

. 15

.

.3)

3)

. 15

1957

532 9,300 ,

7090% .

, 1958

132 87%

.

,

,

1964 592 ,

.

. 197178 21030

, ,

.

10

, , ,

, 5()

. ,

197078 5

195,000 348,000 .4)

,

,

.

.

1970

,

.

3.

1978 .

4) C. Wong, "Material Allocation and Decentraliztion: Impact of the

Local Sector on Industrial Reform," in E. J. Perry and C. Wong

(eds.), The Political Economy of Reform in Post-Mao China

(Cambridge, MA.: Havard University Press, 1985), pp. 253278.

11

.

.5)

.

.

, 197377 3.2%

197983 15.8%

.

(), (), (), ()

,

.

,

.

,

.

5) 1979

, 1981

. , 1980(:

, 1981), p. 58; Du Runsheng, "Agricultural responsibility systems

and the reform of the structure of the rural economy", Hongqi

(Beijing, 1981).

12

.

, 1980

.

.

4.

,

.

, ,

.

.

.

.

() ()

, ,

13

. ,

,

. 1998 210 ,

200 .

(: U$ 100)

\

1992 655,948 586,597 655,948 105,335

1993 146,178 1,293,314 1,439,492 313,913

1995 309,811 1,478,391 1,788,202 316,516

1998 386,890 1,663,105 2,049,995 291,521

1999 394,986 1,952,682 2,347,668 259,870

: , (: , )

.

,

.

. 1 2

14

.

1979 7 ()

, 1980

5 ()

.

. 1987 9

()

.

,

,

.

,

.

.

1993 1994

74.1% 68.4% ,

1998 1999 47.1% 47.0%

.6) 1979

15

,

.

6) , , .

16

.

1.

1970

,

.

1980

70% 1987 20% .

1980

120 1987 60 ,

()

256 27 . 19831992

, .

1981 , (1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

. (3), (4)

, 1987

(4)

80% .

17

1980 188 1986 22

, 1986

30% . 1987

50%

.

(: %)

\ 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1992

51.1

58.1

22.0

67.1

45.9

50.9

16.6

29.7

43.4

43.2

12.6

25.7

40.5

34.1

10.1

24.7

41.2

28.9

7.9

19.4

40.1

21.1

5.6

13.5

: , 1993 (: , 1994), pp.

502503.

.

1984

.

.

1979

, 1984

18

. 1988 () ()

395, () 1,000 , 151

182 .

() 1988 91.6%

.7)

19 85

( %)

54.1

34.8

44.5

85.5

45.6

61.1

49.1

: , 1985 (: , , 1988), pp. 122127.

1986

1,588

.

7) , 1989 (, 1990), pp. 8096.

19

.8)

1984

50%

,

.

.

,

,

.

2.

.

.

1979

,

8) , (:

, 1988), pp. 429441.

20

. 1986 10

, , ,

.

, ()()

.

520%

.

(: %)

1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1992 1995

(1)

(2)

(3)

47.0

19.0

34.0

35.0

25.0

40.0

33.7

28.0

38.3

28.9

21.8

49.3

44.6

19.0

36.4

18.7

7.5

73.8

15.6

6.5

77.9

(2) + (3) 53.0 65.0 66.3 71.1 55.4 81.3 84.4

: , (, ).

19851995

, ,

. 1995

84.4%

, 4/5

.

21

.

(

) (two-track price system) .

2 20%

1985 2

.

.

.

.

,

.

.

,

.

22

.

1980

,

.

(: )

1.73

0.71

0.74

0.51

236.75

507.50

2,255.00

2,162.73

1.56

0.72

0.71

0.54

256.77

504.65

1,878.77

2,259.00

1.68

1.11

1.02

0.52

262.48

476.87

2,283.67

3,098.33

: , 1989 (, 1990), pp. 422424

: 1988

.

,

.

23

610 No.6.5

1985 1,5002,000() ,

27() 100

() .

,

, 1980

.

,

, ,

, .

3. :

,

.

, .

.

.

1970

,

24

.

.

()

. 1990

,

,

.

. 1990

.

, 1980

.9) 1990

.

Kornai

.10)

9) 1999

. ,

.

,

.

.

10) .

25

:

19721977

19681972

19601977

1.5

0.700.74

0.941.16

:

19691977

1975

19711980

9.212.3

10.3

7.268.52

1983

1984

1985

4.6

4.5

3.8

: Zhang Shojie and Zhang Amei, "The Present Management Environment in China's Industrial Enterprises", in B. L. Reynolds (ed.), Reforms in China: Challenges and

Choices(1987), p.51.

Kornai .(Zhang and Zhang, 1987,

p.51) 19831985

Kornai

. ,

, .

,

. J. Kornai, Anti-equilibrium (Amsterdam; North-Holland

Publishing Co., 1971), p. 226 .

26

, 1980

.

4.

.

.11)

,

.

,

.

,

.12)

11)

,

,

.

12)

,

.

27

,

.

,

.

(: )

1985 1990 1999

93,000

1,742,000

3,350,000

104,000

1,685,000

6,182,000

61,000

1,659,000

619,8000

: , (, )

: 1999 .

.

.

,

.

,

.

28

.

,

.

5.

.

1)

1980

. 1988

.

()

,

,

( )

.

,

.

1

.

29

. 1991

1 ,

.

,

.

2)

1988

. 4%

,

,

. 1991

,

.

,

.

1989

, . 1989

30

.

,

.

1991

.

3)

1988

.

1 21

, 2 1986 120 91

, 1991

.

.

.

1988 .

1992 , 1

14 ,

6 2 .

1986 40% 1992 18% .

31

. 1994

9,400,

8,700 .

4)

. 1981

1984 .

, ()

.

. 1985 1

.

1986 (

)

.

32

.

,

.

1993 45%

, 1994

10%

.

.

(

)

.

(inconvertibility)

,

.

,

. 1979

. 1988

.

198485 25%

75%

,

33

. 1991

, 80%

.

30%

50 : 50

.

.

5)

.

()

.

, ()

.

() .

34

,

,

, ,

.13) ,

,

, , ,

.

1 2

,

.

.

.

.

13) 1992.1.182.21

.

, (: ,

1994), pp. 131137 .

35

,

,

, ,

.

,

.

.

,

, ,

.

, ()

.

,

.14)

.

14) 1993 ( , ) , 14.3

, 5.2 , 5.6 , 10.4 ,

7.3 277.7 15.4%

.

. ,

1993, p. 528. , 1994(:

, 1995), pp. 463, 482487, 492. .

36

, ,

. ()

.

,

,

.

.

(sellers' market)

(buyers' market) ,

. 1995 3

6.3% , (

37

50% ) 56% .

.15)

:

(: %)

1995 14.4 67.3 18.3

1995 13.3 72.3 14.6

1996 10.5 74.5 15.0

1996 6.2 84.7 9.1

1997 5.3 89.4 5.3

1997 1.6 66.6 31.8

1998 0 74.2 25.8

2000 2 18.0 80.0

: , 2000 (: , 2000), p. 8. , , , 2001: (: , 2001), pp. 82-83.

1.

,

.

198199

GDP .

15) , 1995

(: , 1998).

38

: 1 981 99

(: %)

\ 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-99

GDP 10.8 7.9 11.6 8.3

34.3 36.3 39.3 38.1

34.2 38.9 41.3 40.9

/GDP 65.8 61.1 58.7 59.1

/GDP 50.6 46.4 43.7 40.6

1 9.4 4.0 8.9 4.8

14.1 3.0 4.3 5.9

4.8 4.3 7.9 4.6

11.6 3.7 6.3 5.2

/GDP 62.2 56.5 47.9 42.3

: , (: ) : 1980

198185

50.6% 199698 40.6% 10%

, 1998 39.0% . 1

9.4% 4.8%

. 198690

1.3%

, GDP 4%

. GDP

198185 62.2% 199699

39

42.3% 20% . 1997

,

.

() 1980 1990

,

, 1990

.

.

.

1980 76% 1999 28.2%

. 1997 (

) 65% ,

25.1% .

,

27% 14%

.

.16)

16) , 1998 , p. 444 .

40

.

,

,

.17)

, .

,

.

2.

,

1 , 23

. 1990 1

17) , 1

1,000()

0.58, 3,000 0.49

. , ,

: 1999(: , 1999), p.

77.

41

3

1 2

728% , 3

2324% 30%

. 1990

1

2 .

( %)

1 2 3

1978GDP 28.1 48.2 23.7

70.5 17.3 12.2

1985GDP 28.4 43.1 28.5

62.4 20.8 16.8

1990GDP 27.1 41.6 31.3

60.1 21.4 18.5

1999GDP 17.7 49.3 33.0

50.1 23.0 26.9

: , (: )

1990

, 1990

.

1995

,

,

42

.

2001 2001

3.5%

.18)

( %)

1978 1982 1985 1990 1995 1998

43.1 50.2 46.7 49.2 47.3 44.2

56.9 49.8 53.3 50.6 52.7 55.8

: , (: )

1

1999 50.1%

. 1

1 GDP 1,000 GDP

1:2:3=18.6: 31.4: 50.2 28.6:30.7:

40.7 , 3

GDP , 2

.19)

1999 2 GDP 49.3%

, 1990

18) , , (: 2001. 7. 17),

http://www.stats.gov.cn/xwkj/jjkx/200107160008.htm.

19) :

, , (: 1994) 12 .

43

,

.

2

GDP

.

, 2 3

.

2 3

, 23

.

23

,

GDP

, .

, 198185

199699 , 34.3%

38.1% 3.8% , GDP

10.8% 8.3% 2.5% .

,

, GDP

.

1996

44

.

3.

,

(FDI: Foreign Direct Invest

-ment) .

.

.

()

. , 1885 1993

149 122

.

1995

,

.

45

()

, 1997

(-)

GDP 34.7%

.20) 8.8% 3.1%

.21)

, 1998

, 1999

2000

.

1990

,

,

.

.

()

20) , , ,

: 1999 (: , 1999), pp. 130-132.

21) 1997

1990 ,

.

46

()

.

.

, ,

.

2000 4,743 7

,

. 2000 GDP 44%

.

1998 53.4%

.

,

.

.

, 50%

()

,

.

47

. 1999

6% 18% , 2000

27.8%, 35.8%

.

,

. 2001 9 2,000

, 1,500

, ,

, () ()

.

.

,

.

, ()

.

. ()

.

48

.

,

.

,

.

.

() ,22)

()

.

.

.

22) 1999 40%

,

. 2000

30%, 2000

10% . ,

(: , 2000), p. 161; , 2001. 4. 4.

49

4.

.

,

.

.

,

.

,

,

,

.

.

,

.

50

() .

,

.

,

.23)

,

()

.

.

,

.

23) .

.

51

.

.

,

.

5.

,

.

,

,

.

,

.24)

24)

, , ,

.

52

,(

) ()

,

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

,25)

,

.

25) 1997 8% 2000

2-3% .

53

.

, 1980

,

.

,

.

.

,

. ()

,

.

.

,

()

.

54

.

.

,

,

.

.

,

,

.

.

()

.

,

.

.

.

55

,

.

,

,

.26)

26)

,

() ,

.

,

.

56

.

1.

1990

,

,

.

.

. 1990

,

.

,

. -

.

,

.

,

57

() .

,

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

,

,

.

, 1980

.

1990

.

, -

58

,

.

.

.

,

.

,

.

2.

, ,

.

.

,

59

.

,

,

.

.

.

1950 60

,

.

1 7

,

.

80

60

90 .

1960

. 60 70

. 196771

47.5% 196066

70.7% . 196066

4.8% 196771 31.2%

.

.

1 7

6

.

.

1970

,

.

61

,

.

1970

,

70

.

1980-93 64.7%,

13.4%, 20.0, 1.9%

, 70

. 60

, ,

. 1980

. 1960

70

80

, , ,

.

.

(investment

hunger) ,

.

,

62

.

3.

.

, ,

.

.

.

,

.

,

.27)

63

() ()

.

, , ,

,

.

, , , , ,

, ,

,

.

. ,

.

1975 4 5 5

,

.

,

.

,

27) , 2(:, 1985), p. 443.

64

.

(: %)

\ 1960 1964 1973 1975 1980 1983 1987 1990 1991

65.5 54.5 83.3 79.9 85.6 84.5 84.5 85.9 87.2

35.5 45.5 16.7 20.1 14.4 15.5 15.5 14.1 12.8

: , , 1986, pp. 16365; , (: , 1995), p. 291.

1960

, 70

.

,

.

,

,

.

4.

.

( ) (scissors' gap)

65

(forced saving)

.

,

,

,

.

.

,

.

, (

) 1958

.28)

28) , (1956-64) (: , 2000) 1956

1964

, 1958

,

. , 1960

.

( 61 , p. 180, 6667 , p. 227 ;

, , p. 69.)

66

1960

,

1966 . ,

1kg 60 ,

1kg 8 ,29)

.

(: %)

1960 1963 1965 1987

28.9 - 24.4 20.0

41.3 - 51.5 60.0

44.4 42.8 - 25.3

41.6 42.0 - 57.9

: , (: 1979); , , (: 1990); , 1964 (: , 1964); Eberstadt, N. and Banister, J., North Korea: Population Trends and Prospects (Berkeley CA.: University of

California, 1992)

1958

,

.

1960 1980

,

29) , 1, p.148.

67

.

, ,

, .

1960

. ()

-

,

.

,

.

5. 30)

(infor

-mation flow) ,31)

30) ,

(: , 1999) .31)

68

.

.32)

33) ()

,

.

1980

.

1990

,

.

.

(information)

.34)

.

32) Seung-Yul Oh,

Shortage in the North Korean Economy: Characteristics, Sources,

and Prospects, The Korean Journal of National Unification (Seoul:

KINU, 1995), vol. 4, pp. 105-131 .

33) ,

(: 1986), p. 61.

34) Stiglitz, J. E., Whither Socialism? (Cambridge, Massachusetts: The

MIT Press, 1996), ch. 11.

69

,

.

(

) ,

() ,

( ).35)

,

.

,

.

,

. 1980

.

1990

35) Montias, J. M.,

The Structure of Economic Systems (New Heaven: Yale University

Press, 1976) .

70

.

.

, , ,

, ,

.

1990

. .

,

. ,

,

. ,

,

,

.

,

71

-

. 1990

,

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

-

.

,

72

,36)

,

.

,

.

.

,

,

() .

, .

,

,

.

36) (transaction cost)

, ,

. North,

D. C., Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance

(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990) .

73

.

, ()

,

.

6.

,

.

,

, ,

.

,

.

, 1970

.

() .

, 1970

74

. 1970

, 80%

,

. , 1998

25% , 50%

.

,

,

.

,

.

,

, ,

.

,

.

,

.

75

.

. ,

,

.

,

,

,

. ,

GDP ,

,

.

.

.

, , ,

.

,

,

76

.

,

.

.

,

. ,

, , ,

.

77

. :

1990

,

.

. ,

.

, ,

.

.

,

.

. 1990

78

,

.

.

,

,

.

()

()

.

,

, 1990

.

,

,

.

.

, -

,

,

,

.

79

. 1990

.

.

.

,

.

. .

, ,

, ,

,

,

.

80

.

,

.

,

, .

, ,

,

.

,

, ,

.

,

,

.

.

.

81

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

(crowding out effect)

.

,

.

,

.

82

, 1990

.

,

.

.

.

,

.

,

,

(

) .37)

37) ,

, ,

.

83

,

,

,

.

, ,

,

,

.

,

,

.

,

,

,

,

.

84

. . ,

. : , 2000.

. . ; , 2000.

. . : , 1995.

. .

, . : 1994 2.

. . : ,

1999.

. (1956-64) .

: , 2000.

. .

: , 1993.

,

. : 1986.

. , : , 1996.

. . : 1979.

. . : 1990.

. . 1986.

. GNP(GDP) . : , .

. 1, 2. : . .

.

.

. , , 2001

85

: . : , 2001.

. , , 2001:

. : , 2001.

. . : , 1997.

. ,

. : ,

1988.

. . : , .

. . : 2001.

. 1995

. : , 1998.

. . .

. , 1998 .

. , .

: , 1994.

. ,

: 1999. : , 1999.

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. 2000. : 2001.

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