eetd-agm presentation supply side (may-2009).ppt · high “top-up and stand-by charges” for tnb...

Institution of Engineers Malaysia

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National Energy Policy

The national energy policy has been predicated on the following principles:

� Supply Objective:To ensure provision of adequate, secure and cost-effective energy supplies by

developing indigenous energy resources, both non-renewable & renewable, using least-costs options, & diversifying supply resources within & renewable, using least-costs options, & diversifying supply resources within & outside the economy;

� Utilisation Objective:To promote the efficient utilisation of energy and the elimination of wasteful &

non-productive patterns of energy consumption;

� Environmental Objective:To minimise the negative impacts of energy

production, transportation, conversion, utilisation & consumption on the environment

IEM – EETD AGM

Why Do We Need EE?

1) National Energy Security

2) Individual & National Economic Benefits

3) Conducive Working Environment3) Conducive Working Environment

4) Industrial & Commercial Competitiveness

5) Environmental Benefits for a Cleaner World

6) A Better Life Style &

7) Ensure Sustainability for Our future Generations IEM – EETD AGM

IEM - PPEE

Trend in GDP, Primary Energy Supply and Final Energy Demand

RM million at 2000 prices

ktoe

5

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Final Energy Use by Sectors

IEM - PPEE

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Agriculture 0 127 391 62 422 446 472 490 307 106 104 98 96 98 87 101

Non-energy 908 1,071 1,222 2,027 1,817 2,994 1,744 2,298 2,023 1,799 2,250 2,378 2,511 2,345 2,183 2,173

Resid. & Comm. 1,646 1,747 1,891 2,069 2,505 2,837 3,557 3,072 3,314 3,653 3,868 4,048 4,387 4,399 4,754 5,134

Transport 5,387 5,806 6,226 6,558 7,262 7,827 8,951 10,201 9,793 11,393 12,071 13,137 13,442 14,271 15,385 15,340

Industrial 5,276 5,809 6,455 7,012 7,286 8,060 9,443 10,106 10,121 10,277 11,406 11,852 12,854 13,472 14,914 15,536

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: National Energy Balance, PTM

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Mtoe/Billion US$ (2000)

Energy Intensity in ASEAN

IEM – EETD AGM

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Brunei 0.036 0.034 0.052 0.112 0.165 0.164 0.158 0.161 0.169 0.167

Indonesia 0.230 0.231 0.350 0.340 0.319 0.431 0.423 0.444 0.429 0.404

Malaysia 0.306 0.247 0.253 0.289 0.303 0.320 0.343 0.338 0.346 0.333

Myanmar 0.493 0.374 0.343 0.209 0.265 0.223 0.183 0.223 0.223 0.222

Philippines 0.215 0.217 0.165 0.169 0.239 0.231 0.225 0.220 0.212 0.206

Singapore 0.122 0.130 0.141 0.156 0.127 0.113 0.133 0.126 0.138 0.141

Thailand 0.267 0.293 0.248 0.272 0.310 0.342 0.358 0.354 0.359 0.352

Vietnam 0.860 0.944 0.396 0.281 0.356 0.382 0.431 0.445 0.527 0.493

1971 1973 1980 1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005

Denmark Energy & GDP Data

IEM – EETD AGM

Maximum Demand Growth Alternatives

� Chart 2 – Alternative Demand Growth Scenarios

IEM – EETD AGM

Potential Capital Investment Savings

ComponentYear 2010 2020

Growth reduction from 9% to:

7.8% 6.0% 7.8% 6.0%

Generation plant(RM billion)

4.57 11.05 30.72 68.67

T & D networks(RM billion)

2.15 5.20 14.45 32.32

IEM – EETD AGM

Natural Gas Subsidies - Malaysia

"Gas Subsidy" Sensitivity Calculations

Crude oil price US$/barrel 40.00 60.00 90.00 Crude oil price RM / barrel 152.00 228.00 342.00 Price RM / mmBtu = 27.88 41.83 62.74 Gas price / mmBtu 22.31 33.46 50.19 Gas price RM/mmBtu for power gen Gas price RM/mmBtu for power gen = 6.40 6.40 6.40 Price premium RM / mmBtu = 15.91 27.06 43.79 Hence premium / kWh = 0.1810 0.3079 0.4982

Assumptions: Exchange rate US$ to RM = 3.8 Gas price = 80% of oil price 1 mmBtu = 1.055 GJ 1 barrel = 5.75 GJ = 5.451 mmBtu = 0.479 MWh 1 MWh = 11.377 mmBtu at conversion efficiency of 30%

IEM – EETD AGM

Electricity Demand Projections and 9MP Targets for EE

Demand Savings with EE (Elasticity 1.5 to 1.3)

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

MW

Dem

and

Elasticity 1.5Demand growth BAU

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

MW

Dem

and

Reduction of 833 MW (2010)

Demand growth EEElasticity 1.3

IEM – EETD AGM

Potential Savings from EE Initiatives: 2007 – 2010

Capital Investment & Energy Use Savings(Based on Demand Reduction of 833 MW)

Capital Investment Savings (Gen) 4,163 RM (bn)

Capital Investment Savings (T & D) 1,665 RM (bn)

Energy Use Reduction 2007 to 2010 (at RM Energy Use Reduction 2007 to 2010 (at RM 0.25/kWh) 2,694 RM (b

(Consumer Energy Cost Savings)

Total Savings fro 2007 to 2010 8,523 RM (bn)

Gas Subsidy Savings (at RM 0.20/kWh) 2,156 RM (bn)

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reductions 6,586 Tn (m)

IEM – EETD AGM

IEM – EETD AGM

Main Aspects of Supply Side EE:

� Primary energy use efficiency,

� Co-generation & its impacts,

� Power plant conversion efficiency,

IEM – EETD AGM

� Power plant conversion efficiency,

� Auxiliary energy use,

� Plant capacity factors,

� T&D loss trends & IBRD “target”,

� Distribution transformer capacity management,

� Benefits of EE in Thailand.

Primary Energy Conversion Efficiency

Energy Conversion Efficiency is:

Energy output / Primary Energy input.

Energy Conversion Efficiency depends on the

energy conversion mode, and is typically:

12 Dec 2003 CICM – MOMG Training Programme

energy conversion mode, and is typically:� Co-Generation / CHP - up to 85%

� Combined cycle plant - up to 55%

� Conventional steam plant - 35% - 40%

� Open Cycle Gas Turbines - about 30%� (Existing Oil Palm Mills - as low as 3%)

TNB Sells Electricity generated from diverse fuels.

Petronas Sells natural gas, which powers about

70% of electricity generated in Malaysia

Utility Use of Natural Gas

12 Dec 2003

Industrial & Commercial customers need electricity

& “thermal energy” (heating or cooling)

“Inefficient” use of gas (avoiding co-gen) wastes

national fuel & financial resourcesCICM – MOMG Training Programme

TNB is willing to:

� Purchase surplus power from SREP co-gen plant

� Ready to provide “standby” and “top-up” power to co-gen

facilities for electricity supply adequacy & security

� Willing to purchase surplus power from other co-gen

Utility Stand on Co-generation

12 Dec 2003

� Willing to purchase surplus power from other co-gen

plant but at rates lower than SREP rates

TNB proposes that the government should subsidise purchase

price of surplus co-gen electricity, beyond TNB’s “avoided cost

of generation”

CICM – MOMG Training Programme

Assume co-gen energy conversion efficiency of, say

70%

Assume combined cycle conversion efficiency of,

say 40%

Benefits of Co-generation

12 Dec 2003

say 40%

Efficiency increase with co-gen becomes 75%

If only 20% of current gas use is converted to co-

gen, then the efficiency of gas use improves by

about 15%.


Co-generation “Cost Penalties”

Use of natural gas in co-generation form faces several hurdles such as:

� High “Top-Up and Stand-By Charges” for TNB supply from the utility grid,

� TNB’s refusal to accept excess electricity generation from Co-TNB’s refusal to accept excess electricity generation from Co-Gen plant except at very low purchase price,

� Recent unavailability of gas for industrial use,

� Note:� FMM has mentioned that TNB imposes “punitive charges” on its Co-Gen

customers who exceed their “Declared Demand” or “Average load Factor” (No concrete evidence provided)

IEM – EETD AGM

Efficient Use of Natural Gas

� TNB revenue (for 2007) RM 23 billion

� Assuming fuel cost (including by IPP) is about 35% - RM 8.05 billion

� About 65% of total electricity generation is from gas - RM 5.23 billion

� Assuming 20% of NG is used for co-generation, with efficiency improvement from 40% to 75%, the NG saving would be 15%, (20% of 75% improvement) which amounts to RM 1.05 billion a year.

� Sale of RM 1.05 billion worth of NG (at RM 6.40 per mmBtu) to the export market (at say, even RM 24 mmBtu), would generate additional revenue of about RM 3.9 billion, or make available additional gas supplies for industrial use.

IEM – EETD AGM

Other Benefits of Co-generation

Lower primary energy consumption,

So less emissions,

Higher thermal efficiency of conversion

So lower energy intensity.

12 Dec 2003

So lower energy intensity.

Distributed generation

So less need for large power generation,

Less need for T & D infrastructure development, and

Reduced T & D losses


Italy

The Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sw eden

UK

EU Average

CHP as a share of national power production - 1999

12 Dec 2003CICM – MOMG Training Programme

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

From Cogen3 presentation Oct 2003

The Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sw eden

UK

EU Average

CHP as a share of national power production - 1999 & 2010 (??)

12 Dec 2003CICM – MOMG Training Programme

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy


Production share of electricity by CHP

15%

20%

25%

Present Policies

Heightened Environmental Awareness

Post Kyoto

Deregulated Liberalisation Target (18%)

12 Dec 2003

0%

5%

10%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020



Power Plant Conversion Efficiency Index

60

70

80

90

100Design Eff'cy

Actual Eff'cy

Efficiency Index

Relative Efficiency Index

IEM – EETD AGM

0

10

20

30

40

50

Palnt A Palnt B Palnt C Palnt D Palnt E Palnt F Palnt G

Power Plant Auxiliary Use?

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Self Use Energy - % of Generated energy

IEM – EETD AGM

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Power Plant Capacity Factors

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Capacity Factors

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Loss Reduction Trend - Sample

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00 Trans Loss

Distn loss

T & D loss

Loss Trends S. Korea

Loss

%

IEM – EETD AGM

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Loss

%

Year

Utility Losses (T & D)

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

% L

osse

s

Utility Losses Malaysia Losses TNBLosses SESBLosses SEB (SESCO)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

% L

osse

s

Year

IBRD Recommended T & D Loss Target (1982)

IEM – EETD AGM

Electricity Utility Transmission and Distribution Losses

I.B.R.D. Energy Efficiency : Optimisation Of Electric Power Distribution System Losses (1982).

Target Acceptable

Transmission 2.0 4.0 }

xx December 2004

Transmission 2.0 4.0 }Sub-transmission 2.0 4.0 } 4.0

Distribution H.V. 3.25 5.5 }Distribution L.V. 1.0 2.0 } 8.0

Total 8.25 15.5 12.0

Distribution Substations & MD

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

TNB Substation data

No. Of Substations

Substation capacity MVA

MD - MW

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No.

& M

VA

Years

IEM – EETD AGM

4,000

5,000

6,000

SESB Substation data

No. Of Substations

Substation capacity MVA

MD - MW


IEM – EETD AGM

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No.

& M

VA

Years


6000

7000

8000

9000

SEB Substation data

No. Of Substations

MVA+Sheet1!$84:$84 capacity

MD MW

IEM – EETD AGM

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No.

& M

VA

Years

Target and Actual Savings EGAT’s DSM Programmes

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Results of 30% Subsidy Programme

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Results of Energy Efficiency Revolving Fund

IEM – EETD AGM

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Cost Effectiveness Indicators for EGAT’s DSM Programs

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Past and Future DSM Plans

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Savings from Designated Facilities

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IEM – EETD AGM

G. Lalchand G. Lalchand G. Lalchand G. Lalchand EEEE----mail:mail:mail:mail:[email protected]@[email protected]@mbipv.net.my

IEM – EETD AGM

IEM - PPEE

eetd-agm presentation supply side (may-2009).ppt · high “top-up and stand-by charges” for tnb...

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