effect of future co2 emission and impact on urban air quality

7/30/2019 Effect of Future CO2 Emission and Impact on Urban Air Quality

1/15

Effects of Future Emissions and a

Changed Climate on Urban Air

Quality

Mark Z. Jacobson Stanford UniversityCo-contributor David G. Streets Argonne Nat. Lab.

EPA RD 83337101-0

EPA Workshop: Impacts of Climate Change on Air

Quality in the Pacific Southwest

San Francisco, California

Oct. 11, 2007


2/15

Effects of Future Anth. Emissions on

Natural Emissions and Air QualityClimate-Dependent Natural Emissions Treated

Lightning NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, CO, HO2, H2O2Sea spray Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, S, Br, N

Ocean bacteriaPhytoplankton DMS

Soil dust

Vegetation isoprene, monoterpenes, NMVOC

Soil NOx

PollenSpores

Land bacteria

Natural fire and volcanic gas and particle emissions

Photosynthesis, cellular respiration, soil respiration CO2


3/15

2030 A1B CO/BC Growth Factors

(B1 also derived)

D.G. Streets

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

CanadaUSA

CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica

NorthernAfrica

WesternAfrica

EasternAfrica

SouthernAfrica

OECDEurope

EasternEurope

FormerUSSR

MiddleEast

SouthAsia

EastAsia

SoutheastAsia

OceaniaJapanWorld

GrowthFac

tor

Carbon monoxide

Black carbon


4/15

Differences 2002-2030

Under A1B and B1 Scenarios


5/15




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7/15

Massachusetts et al. v. EPA

Supreme Court Ruling April 2, 2007: CO2 can be regulated

(b) The harms associated with climate change are serious andwell recognized. The Governments own objective assessment ofthe relevant science and a strong consensus among qualified

experts indicate that global warming threatens, inter alia, aprecipitate rise in sea levels, severe and irreversible changes tonatural ecosystems, a significant reduction in winter snowpackwith direct and important economic consequences, and increasesin the spread of disease and the ferocity of weather events.

However, the ruling does not require the regulation of CO2 and nostudy so far has demonstrated, by cause and effect, that CO2 itselfharms health through air pollution (many studies have linkedwarmer temperatures to ozone, but none has isolated CO2s effector calculated health impacts of ozone or PM2.5).


8/15

How Causal Link Between CO2 and

Health was Determined1. An exact numerical solutions to photochemistry in a box model

was used to establish the relationships between (a) water vapor

and ozone and (b) temperature and ozone.

2. 3-D Nested global-regional simulations over the U.S. were used

to show by cause-and-effect whether CO2 alone increases air

temperatures, whether the temperatures increase water vapor

and atmospheric stability, and how all three parameters affect

ozone, particulate matter, and carcinogens.

3. Population and health-statistics data were combined with the

concentration changes to determine the net effect of CO2 on air

pollution mortality, hospitalization, asthma, and cancer.


9/15

Increases in H2O and T Both

Increase O3 with Increasing O3

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

Ozonemixingratio(ppbv)

Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction)

NMOG=235, NOx=45

NMOG=500, NOx=150

NMOG=120, NOx=20

NMOG=60, NOx=13

NMOG=50, NOx=4

NMOG=15, NOx=0.7NMOG=30, NO

x=30

NMOG=350, NOx=100

With increasing water vapor,

Hi NOx: NO+HO2-->NO2+OH fast, increasing NO2:NO, O3

Lo NOx: 2HO2 -H2O->H2O2 fast; NO2 lost to orgnit, decr. NO2:NO, O3


10/15

Causal Effect of CO2 on Mortality

Global-regional nested simulations:CO2 alone increases T, H2O, O3, PM2.5

U.S. Total deaths/yr per 1K +1000 (350-1800)40% due to ozone; 60% due to PM2.5

World Total deaths/yr per 1K +21,600 (7400-39,000)

Temperature Water vapor Ozone


11/15

Reduced Upper-Trop/Lower Strat O3due to Higher H

2O, Lower T there

From CO2

-1 0 1

200

400

600

800

1000

a.ii) ! Temperature (K)

Pressure

(hPa)

Data

Model

8.04

8.045

8.05

8.055

8.06

8.065

8.07

2 10-6 6 10-6 1 10-5 1.4 10-5

Ozonemixingratio(ppmv

)

b) Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction)

220.05 K

Stratosphere (25 km)NMOG = 0 ppbv, NOx

= 3 ppbv

221.55 K

0 0.4 0.8 1.2

100

1000

b.ii) ! H2O (ppthv)

Pressure

(hPa)

-40 -20 0

100

1000

! Daytime O3

(ppbv)

Pressure

(hPa)


12/15

30-Day Weather Predictions vs. DataResults with no model spinup or data assimilation

1000

1005

1010

1015

10201025

1030

12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780

Airpressure(hP

a)

GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)

34.4453oN, 118.1722

oW

05

10152025303540

12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780Air

temperature(oC)


34.0133o

N, 117.9406o

W

0

20

40

60

80

100

12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780R

elativehumidity(%)


34.0133oN, 117.9406

oW

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780

Ozone(pp

mv)


34.0506oN, 117.5447

oW

Pressure

Ozone

Temperature

RH


13/15

Model vs. Measured Solar RadiationModel predicted the location and magnitude of cloud reduction of

sunlight for four days in a row

0

200

400

600

800

1000

96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192Solarirradiance(W/m

2)

GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)

34.2525oN, 118.8575

oW Measured and modeled

solar reductions due to clouds

0

200

400

600

800

1000

12 96 180 264 348 432 516 600 684Solarirradiance(W/m

2)

GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)

34.2525oN, 118.8575

oW


14/15

Summary

Increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO2

separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus, globalwarming may exacerbate ozone most in already-polluted areas.

CO2 may increase U.S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000(350-1800) and cancers by 20-30 per 1 K rise in CO2-inducedtemperatures, with 40% due to O

3

and 60% due to PM2.5

, whichincreases from enhanced stability. Increases in worldwide deathscould be about 21,600 (7400-39,000) more than those fromenhanced storminess.

CO2

decreases column ozone by decreasing uppertropospheric/lower stratospheric ozone. Although this increasesUV, increased aerosol loadings reduce this UV at the surface.

The results provide a basis for controlling CO2 on air-pollution

health grounds.


15/15

Summary

A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2030 were developed. Although

B1 was cleaner, global warming increased more with it because A1B

warming was masked by added reflective particles.

Lightning emissions decreased in both scenarios as cloud ice

decreased. Photosynthesis-cellular respiration (NPP) increased in bothscenarios. Seas spray, ocean bacteria, DMS, soil dust, pollen, spores,

land bacteria emissions slightly decreased due to enhanced stability.

Ozone increased in both scenarios.

effect of future co2 emission and impact on urban air quality

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