EFFECT OF GLOBAL EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON COFFEE WARMING ON COFFEE

PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

Dr. J. K. KimemiaDr. J. K. Kimemia

Ugandan Coffee Traders Federation Ugandan Coffee Traders Federation Breakfast Fellowship, 15 June 2010 Breakfast Fellowship, 15 June 2010

Kampala UgandaKampala Uganda

IntroductionIntroduction

Africa is the home of both Arabica and Africa is the home of both Arabica and Robusta coffeeRobusta coffee

The coffees play a major economic role to the The coffees play a major economic role to the member countriesmember countries

Any threat to the coffee production would Any threat to the coffee production would have serious implications have serious implications

Climatic RequirementsClimatic Requirements

AltitudeAltitude 1400 – 2200 m asl1400 – 2200 m asl TemperaturesTemperatures Arabica 18 – 20ºCArabica 18 – 20ºC

Robusta 22 – 26ºCRobusta 22 – 26ºC >25ºC>25ºC Photosynthesis is reducedPhotosynthesis is reduced >30ºC>30ºC Leaves damagedLeaves damaged

RainfallRainfall >1000 mm with a 2 month >1000 mm with a 2 month dry spelldry spell

Global warmingGlobal warming

Attributed to human factor mainly increase in Attributed to human factor mainly increase in Green House Gases ( carbon dioxide and Green House Gases ( carbon dioxide and methane)methane)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates a temp. rise of 1.4 – 5.8 ºC (IPCC) estimates a temp. rise of 1.4 – 5.8 ºC 1990 – 21001990 – 2100

An average temp rise of 0.2 ºC per decade is An average temp rise of 0.2 ºC per decade is projectedprojected

Attitude ScenariosAttitude Scenarios

Assume there is no global warmingAssume there is no global warming Do nothing Do nothing Perish when and if it happensPerish when and if it happens

Believe there is global warmingBelieve there is global warming Do nothing – act of GodDo nothing – act of God Prepare strategies to overcome and and or adopt to Prepare strategies to overcome and and or adopt to

the changethe change

Impact on AgricultureImpact on Agriculture

Shifting of optimal growing zonesShifting of optimal growing zones Changes in rainfall (amount and variability)Changes in rainfall (amount and variability) Change in crop diseases and pestsChange in crop diseases and pests Change in crop yields and qualityChange in crop yields and quality Loss of agricultural land due to either rising Loss of agricultural land due to either rising

sea levels and/or desertificationsea levels and/or desertification

Impact on coffeeImpact on coffee

For exampleFor example A rise in 2 ºC in Uganda would cut massively the A rise in 2 ºC in Uganda would cut massively the

area under coffeearea under coffee Coffee may only remain at around Mt ElgonCoffee may only remain at around Mt Elgon Which variety Arabica or Robusta?Which variety Arabica or Robusta?

Impact on coffee (contd)Impact on coffee (contd)

Mexico: A rise in temp could reduce Mexico: A rise in temp could reduce coffee production by 34% in coffee production by 34% in VeracruzVeracruz

Brazil: Brazil: A rise of A rise of 5.8 ºC 5.8 ºC could reduce the could reduce the suitable areas for coffee suitable areas for coffee productionproduction

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

Flowering in coffee Flowering in coffee requires a period of requires a period of moisture stressmoisture stress

Sporadic rains reduces Sporadic rains reduces stress durationstress duration

Reduced and sporadic Reduced and sporadic

floweringflowering

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

Results in random Results in random floweringflowering

Different berry growth Different berry growth stages at the same timestages at the same time

Difficulties in disease Difficulties in disease and pest management, and pest management, harvesting and harvesting and processingprocessing

Compromise qualityCompromise quality

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

Disease like Leaf Rust Disease like Leaf Rust may become more may become more prevalentprevalent

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

1 1 ºC ºC increase in temp. increase in temp. would increase the would increase the population of coffee population of coffee berry borer by 8.8%berry borer by 8.8%

Increase the infestation Increase the infestation of nematodes and leaf of nematodes and leaf minerminer

Effect on coffee (contd)Effect on coffee (contd)

Poor yields and qualityPoor yields and quality

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

High temp fasten coffee ripening and reduces High temp fasten coffee ripening and reduces qualityquality

FermentationFermentationThis is natural or artificial degradation of the This is natural or artificial degradation of the mucilaginous coatmucilaginous coatFermentation has a great impact on the cup Fermentation has a great impact on the cup qualityqualityTakes between 18 – 72 hours depending on Takes between 18 – 72 hours depending on prevailing temperaturesprevailing temperatures

Effect on coffeeEffect on coffee

What Requires to be DoneWhat Requires to be Done

Carry out more agronomic research?Carry out more agronomic research? And in the meantime?And in the meantime?

Develop new heat/drought tolerant crops?Develop new heat/drought tolerant crops? Long term and expensiveLong term and expensive

What Requires to be DoneWhat Requires to be Done

Cultivate coffee at higher altitudes Cultivate coffee at higher altitudes No landNo land Environmental and forest degradationEnvironmental and forest degradation

Repackage the available technical information Repackage the available technical information and develop mitigation and adaptation and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies?strategies?

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Use of shade in coffeeUse of shade in coffee Reduces the air Reduces the air

temperaturestemperatures Evens out floweringEvens out flowering Conserves surface Conserves surface

moisturemoisture

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Use of shade in coffeeUse of shade in coffee Litter fall contributes to Litter fall contributes to

soil organic matter and soil organic matter and nutrients – reduce nutrients – reduce fertilizer applicationfertilizer application

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Use of shade using fruit Use of shade using fruit trees e.g. Mangoes trees e.g. Mangoes Risk managementRisk management CashCash Food securityFood security Nutritional requirementsNutritional requirements

Adaptation andMitigating Adaptation andMitigating strategiesstrategies

Adaptation andAdaptation andMitigating strategiesMitigating strategies

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Possible Shade treesPossible Shade trees

Cordia sppCordia spp Albizzia sppAlbizzia spp Grevellea sppGrevellea spp Markhemia luteaMarkhemia lutea Macadamia sppMacadamia spp AvocadoesAvocadoes MangoesMangoes

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Mulching appliedMulching applied

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Mulching appliedMulching applied

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Mulching appliedMulching applied

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Mulching appliedMulching applied

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Grass StripsGrass Strips

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

Water conserving Water conserving trees e.g. giant trees e.g. giant bamboo bamboo

Adaptation and Mitigating Adaptation and Mitigating strategiesstrategies

ForkingForking SubsoilingSubsoiling FurrowsFurrows Half moon basinsHalf moon basins etcetc

Mitigation strategiesMitigation strategies

Breeding for high Breeding for high temperature tolerance – temperature tolerance – can it be done?can it be done?

Biotechnology?Biotechnology? Food safety Food safety

considerations?considerations? Costs?Costs? Consumer perception?Consumer perception?

Way ForwardWay Forward

The problem is both economic and political – The problem is both economic and political – a regional/continental approach needed a regional/continental approach needed

A think tank to address this issue needs to be A think tank to address this issue needs to be set upset up

Assistance by international research Assistance by international research organisations and development partners organisations and development partners neededneeded

Way ForwardWay Forward

Participation by all: success dependent on Participation by all: success dependent on continued coffee productioncontinued coffee production

Role of the tradeRole of the trade Support researchSupport research Support disseminationSupport dissemination Support farmersSupport farmers

DEVELOP A WIN – WIN SITUATIONDEVELOP A WIN – WIN SITUATION

C R F

$

Asante sanaAsante sana