effects of climate change in highland agriculture and local adaptive strategies in rasuwa, nepal
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Thesis report for the partial fulfillment of Master's degree in Environmental ScienceTRANSCRIPT
I
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND
AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES:
A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA
Submitted by
KAMAL THAPA
Exam Roll no: 459
TU Regd. no: 5-2-37-558-2003
Central Department of Environmental Science
Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal
Submitted to
Central Department of Environmental Science
Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal
For the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the
Master of Science (M.Sc.) Degree in Environmental Science of
Tribhuvan University
June, 2011
II
A Thesis Report on
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND
AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES:
A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA
(For the partial fulfillment of Master of Environmental Science)
Researcher:
Kamal Thapa
Exam Roll no: 459 [Sixth Batch]
T U Regd no: 5-2-37-558-2003
M. Sc. Environmental Sciences [CDES]
Institute of Science and Technology
Tribhuvan University, Kritipur, Nepal
Supervisor:
Ajaya Dixit
Chairperson,
Nepal Water Conservation Foundation
Chundevi, Kathmandu, Nepal
III
LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION
This is to certify that Mr. Kamal Thapa has prepared this dissertation entitled "
Effects of Climate Change in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive
Strategies: A Case Study of Timure VDC, Rasuwa” under my supervision and
guidance. The thesis is intended for the partial fulfillment of the requirements for
Master's Degree of Science in Environmental science majoring in Mountain
Environment.
To the best of my knowledge, the study is original and reveals useful insights on how
people adapt to climate change impacts. This thesis embodies his work and fulfills the
requirement for the stated degree awarded by Central Department of Environmental
Science, Tribhuvan University. I recommend this dissertation for final evaluation and
acceptance.
………………………………..
Ajaya Dixit
Chairperson,
Nepal Water Conservation Foundation
Chundevi, Kathmandu
(Thesis Supervisor)
IV
LETTER OF APPROVAL
The dissertation presented by Mr. Kamal Thapa entitled "Effects of Climate Change
in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study of Timure
VDC, Rasuwa” has been accepted as a partial fulfillment of requirement for the
completion of Master’s Degree in Environmental Science of Tribhuvan University.
Dissertation Evaluation Committee:
…………………………………….
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kedar Rijal
Central Department of Environmental
Science, Tribhuvan University
Head of Department
…………………………………….
Dr. Deepak Rijal
National Facilitator,
Climate Adaptation Design and Piloting
Project- Nepal
External Examiner
…………………………………….
Mr. Ajaya Dixit
Chairperson,
Nepal Water Conservation Foundation
Thesis Supervisor
…………………………………….
Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha
Lecturer,
Central Department of Environmental
Science, Tribhuvan University
Internal Supervisor
V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank my supervisor Mr. Ajaya Dixit for his support in the preparation
of this thesis. His suggestion has helped me complete this assignment successfully. I
am also thankful to Head of the Department of Environmental Science, Assoc. Prof.
Dr. Kedar Rijal, all teachers and staffs of the department for their support and
guidance. I am extremely thankful to my external examiner, Dr. Deepak Rijal and
internal supervisor Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha for their comments and
encouragement for completion of final thesis report.
My sincere thanks go to Mr. Nabaraj Subedi of Department of Survey and Mr.
Navaraj Kandel of National Land Use Project. I extend my gratitude to Ms. Sujan
Ghimire and Mr. Kanchan Dixit of ISET-Nepal for their support. I’m thankful to Dr.
Santosh Shrestha, Mr. Madhav Devakota and Deebraj Rai for their valuable
comments. I express my gratitude and appreciation to the household respondents of
the Timure VDC.
Last but not the least I would like to thank my friends Ms. Sristi Silwal, Ms. Pooja
Baral, Ms. Swechchha Shrestha, Mr. Santosh Silwal and Yubaraj Satyal for their
assistance in successfully completing this work. I am very grateful to my family for
their support and inspiration.
Kamal Thapa
June, 2011
VI
ABSTRACT
Climate Change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. It affects agriculture,
forestry, human health, biodiversity, snow cover, aquatic and mountain ecosystems.
Changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have the potentiality to
influence crop production. Despite impacts of climate change on the agriculture
sector, little efforts have been made to offset the impacts. In addition problems such
as drought, severe floods and landslides have been experienced in different sectors in
Nepal. This study assesses effects of climatic variability on agriculture at Timure
VDC of Rasuwa District. It explores adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability
associated with climate change in local agricultural production. For analysis
household questionnaires were administered in the VDC. The hydro meteorological
data on temperature, rainfall of Rasuwa district and discharge of Trisuli River at
Betrabati Station was analyzed to see any spatial and temporal variations in Timure
VDC. The impacts of these variations on agriculture were analyzed. The analysis of
past temperature records revealed a clear warming trend. The maximum average
temperature shows rapid increase (0.104°C/year) than the minimum average
temperatures (0.06°C/year) indicating a widening temperature range. The analysis of
precipitation data however did not show a clear trend of change but the amount of
annual rainfall showed increasing trend.
GIS analysis of land use change showed a decreased (in average 13.95% per decade)
agricultural land which may be one of reasons for declining agriculture production in
the study area. People have adapted different strategies to minimize impacts of
climatic hazards. These responses include selection of sites for making homes and
cultivation in sunny slope, intercropping, bio- engineering, terracing, changing crop
calendar, migration and diversifying income. However, traditional social safety net of
risk avoidance activities has weakened. Policy driven or planned adaptation
strategies along with autonomous adaptation need to address the negative impact of
climate change.
Key words: climate change, agriculture, adaptation strategy, local community
VII
TABLE OF CONTENT
LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION .......................................................................... III
LETTER OF APPROVAL ............................................................................................ IV
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................... V
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... VI
TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................ VII
LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... X
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ XII
ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................. XIII
Chapter I
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Statement of Problem .................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Research Question ........................................................................................................ 6
1.4 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 6
1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study ............................................................................... 6
Chapter II
LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 8
2.1 General ......................................................................................................................... 8
2.2 Global Climate Change ............................................................................................... 10
2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal........................................................... 12
2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture ................................................................................. 15
2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation .................................................................................. 17
A. Planned Adaptation: ..................................................................................................... 18
B. Autonomous Adaptation: ............................................................................................. 18
2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability ............................................................ 19
VIII
2.7 Agriculture Policies and Plans .................................................................................... 20
2.8 Development of Hypothesis ........................................................................................ 21
Chapter III
METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 22
3.1 Research Approach ..................................................................................................... 22
3.2 Criteria for Site Selection ............................................................................................ 22
3.3 Study Area .................................................................................................................. 23
3.4 Research Design ......................................................................................................... 29
3.5 Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 30
3.6 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 33
Chapter IV
OBSERVATION AND RESULTS ................................................................................... 34
4.1 Socio-Economic Status and People’s Perception ......................................................... 34
4.2 Climate ....................................................................................................................... 37
4.3 Water Resource .......................................................................................................... 41
4.4. People’s Perception.................................................................................................... 42
4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters ................................................ 48
Chapter V
DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................. 51
5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation .................................................................... 51
5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change ..................................................................................... 51
5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events........................................................... 52
5.4 Adaptation Strategy .................................................................................................... 53
Chapter VI
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................................................. 56
6.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 56
6.2 Recommendation ........................................................................................................ 57
IX
REFERENCE ................................................................................................................... 58
ANNEX
ANNEX I: Change in Temperature ................................................................................... 63
B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 63
ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation .................................................................................. 64
A. Dhunche ...................................................................................................................... 67
B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 67
C. Timure ......................................................................................................................... 69
ANNEX III: Change in Discharge .................................................................................... 71
ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature ......................................................... 71
ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation .......................................................... 73
ANNEX VI: Land use Change .......................................................................................... 73
ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land ....................................................................... 75
ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change ..................................... 77
X
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system .................................... 9
Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and modern data ................................................ 9
Figure 3: Observed surface air temperature ....................................................................... 11
Figure 4: Carbon Dioxide emission of Nepal .................................................................... 13
Figure 5: Timure Village .................................................................................................. 26
Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC ......................................................................................... 29
Figure 7: Research design ................................................................................................. 30
Figure 8: Focus group discussions .................................................................................... 31
Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation ...................................................... 32
Figure 10: Ethnicity of respondents .................................................................................. 34
Figure 11: Sex ratio .......................................................................................................... 34
Figure 12: Literacy rate..................................................................................................... 35
Figure 13: Occupation status of respondents ..................................................................... 35
Figure 14: Landholding status ........................................................................................... 36
Figure 15: Food sufficiency .............................................................................................. 37
Figure 16: Location of meteorological stations ................................................................. 38
Figure 17: Annual average precipitation in Timure VDC .................................................. 40
Figure 18: Seasonal discharge in percentage ..................................................................... 42
Figure 19: People's perception on temperature .................................................................. 42
Figure 20: People's perception on precipitation ................................................................. 43
Figure 21: People's perception on snowfall ....................................................................... 43
Figure 22: Perception on agricultural production .............................................................. 43
Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production ................................................................ 44
Figure 25: Drinking water supply ..................................................................................... 44
Figure 26: Irrigation water supply ..................................................................................... 45
Figure 24: Drinking water at Khaidi ................................................................................. 44
Figure 28: Issues of forest ................................................................................................. 46
Figure 27: Forest condition ............................................................................................... 45
Figure 29: Perception on disaster ...................................................................................... 46
Figure 30: Impact of climate induced disaster ................................................................... 47
Figure 31: Preventive measure .......................................................................................... 47
XI
Figure 32: Resilience from extreme condition ................................................................... 48
Figure 33: Change in temperature ..................................................................................... 48
Figure 34: Change in precipitation .................................................................................... 49
Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC........................................................................ 50
Figure 36: Sloping agricultural land at Khaidi village ....................................................... 52
Figure 37: Landslide at Timure ......................................................................................... 53
Figure 38: Bhakari for grain storage ................................................................................. 54
Figure 39: Ghattekhola ..................................................................................................... 55
XII
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Climate region in Nepal ...................................................................................... 24
Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district ............................................................................. 25
Table 3: Crop calendar in Timure VDC ............................................................................ 36
Table 4: Temperature distribution (°C) in Timure VDC .................................................... 38
Table 5: Temperature trend (°C/year) ............................................................................... 39
Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall ........................................................................... 40
Table 7: Precipitation trend ............................................................................................... 40
Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati station ..................................................... 41
XIII
ACRONYMS
ALSO Advanced Land Observing Satellite
CBS Central Bureau of Statistics
CDES Central Department of Environmental Science
CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
CDMA Code Division Multiple Access
CSMT Country Study Management Team
DHM Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Green House Gas
IDW Inverse Distance Weighted
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IUCN World Conservation Union
LPG Liquid fid Petroleum Gas
LRMP Land Resource Mapping Project
MHP Micro Hydro Power
MOPE Ministry of Population and Environment
NARC National Agriculture Research Center
NCVST Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team
NPC Nepal Planning Commission
PREC/L Precipitation Re-Construction over Land
SAM South Asian Monsoon
SRES Special Report Emission Scenarios
UN United Nation
UNEP United Nation Environment Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
VDC Village Development Committee
V-SAT Very Small Aperture Terminal
WECS Water and Energy Commission Secretariat
1
Chapter I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Of all the environmental problems facing global society, climate change is probably
the most significant one (Basque Plan, 2009). It is not simply because of the impact
that scientific studies suggest that climate change will have, but because of the fact
that impact will be widespread and inextricably linked with ways of living and
producing. International community made many declarations highlighting the
challenges. One such declaration, the Basque Plan against climate change (2008-
2012) elucidates that in today’s world we are not dealing with isolated phenomena
involving an anomaly located at specific point in the system but with the result of a
long process of economic growth based on an unsustainable model (Climate action,
2009).
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines
"climate change" as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".
Climate change is any long-term significant change in the ―average weather‖ that a
region experiences. Average weather may include temperature, precipitation and wind
patterns. Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of
typically 30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale.
Climate has changed considerably through the history of the earth due to changes in
radiative forcing components of atmosphere as they are influenced by natural
phenomenon. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that
many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly
increases in temperature (IPCC, 2007). But the rate of global climate change during
the 20th
century was greater than the preceding era (Bates et al, 2008). According to
IPCC (2007), the global average surface temperature has increased, especially since
the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s when the amount of green
house gas (GHG) emitted into the atmosphere began to increase. According to this
2
study the updated 100-year trend from 1906 to 2005 shows increase in 0.74°C ±
0.18°C.
Many greenhouse gases occur naturally. Many human activities have resulted in the
emission of greenhouse gases, which are responsible, for anthropogenically enhanced
greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities include carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per
fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Global concentration of GHG
due to human activities has increased in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times,
with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC, 2007). There are many other
ways in which humans affect the various components of the climate system.
Agriculture, deforestation, urbanization and other forms of land cover change alter the
proportion of incoming solar radiation reaching the ground surface reflected back to
space. This phenomenon affects the energy balance, the temperature and dynamics of
the climate system.
Observations from across the globe show that many ecosystems are being affected by
regional climate changes, especially as a result of changes in temperature and
precipitation extremes (UNITAR, 2010). The ecological patterns that have been
observed to change range from latitudinal plant distributions, the extension of areas
where infectious diseases are transmitted (such as malaria), and changes to
ecosystems due to increased regional fire hazards (e.g. in California). Most
ecosystems are predicted to slowly migrate and shift their distribution towards the
north and south poles in response to warming temperatures (IUCN, 2006).
From 1900 to 2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts
of the Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the
Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia (UNDP,
2008). Intense precipitation events result in increased flood, landslide and mudslide
damages that will increase risks to human lives and properties. Globally there is an
increasing trend of climate related disasters. Between 2000 and 2004 an average of
326 climate disasters was reported each year (UNDP, 2008). Record of disaster event
between 1991 and 1999 shows that climate related disaster event were 104.
Of the many impacts of climate change, the impact on water is expected to be serious
as global availability of freshwater will be affected. Regionally, glaciers and snow
3
packs which are the crucial sources of fresh water for millions of people will be
affected. The extent and thickness of glaciers has recently undergone widespread
reduction from melting, and this trend is expected to accelerate during the 21st
Century. This trend will reduce water flow dynamics and the potential for hydropower
generation. Climate change is also expected to change the seasonality of river flows in
regions fed by melt water from mountain ranges, like the Hindu Kush, the Himalaya
and the inter-tropical Andes. More than a sixth of the world’s population resides in
these regions; two thousand million people depend on the water provided by seven of
the major rivers in Asia, all of them originating in the Himalaya (IPCC, 2007).
As water system is affected by climate change agriculture will be one of the sensitive
sector to induced impacts in Asia. The crop yield in many countries of Asia has
declined (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severe losses
because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil degradation.
The Stern Review and IPCC 4th Assessment Report both state that climate change
will have adverse impact on people’s health, safety and livelihoods, with the ―poorest
people in the poorest countries expected to suffer first and foremost‖. Predicted
climate change will create barriers to poverty reduction efforts and reverse many of
the important socio-economic gains made by developing countries (IPCC, 2007).
The temperature increase in the Himalayan region has been greater than the global
average of 0.74 °C over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). More rapid warming in
higher altitude can be noted in temperature records from Nepal (Eriksson et al, 2008).
Observed changes in temperature trend, recent studies and local perceptions collected
during the NAPA process indicate a consistent and continuous warming in the period
at an annual rate of 0.06°C (MoEnv, 2010).
Nepal’s with a total land area is 147,181 square. Agriculture is a main source of
Nepal’s economy and more than 76 % of the population depends on this sector (NPC,
2010). About 6,000 rivers and streams that cross Nepal make it one of the richest
countries in terms of physics of the water resources. People who depend on
agriculture for their livings are more vulnerable as agriculture is easily affected by
climatic extreme events and natural disasters (NCVST, 2009). Due to such events
agricultural productivity is suffering from losses and attainment of food security is
under tremendous threats. Due to high dependency of livelihood in agriculture and
water, Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries from climate change impacts.
4
Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (2001) defines vulnerability as: ―The degree to
which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity‖ (IPCC 2001). Vulnerability has been
extensively been studied by analyst working on disaster risk reduction. Literature
suggest that resilience is inverse of vulnerability, those who are not resilient are
vulnerable and vice versa. Any efforts to reduce vulnerability which is also the
outcome of the social, economic and environmental exposure and sensitivity can build
capacity to adapt (Ahemad and Mustafa, 2007).
The IPCC has defined adaptation in connection with climate change impact as a
process through which societies make themselves better able to cope with an
uncertain future (IPCC, 2007). For community and individuals adaptation is the
process of social learning too. The capacity to adapt is the ability to understand
climate changes and hazards, to evaluate their consequences for vulnerable peoples,
place and economies and to minimize potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (Dow and Downing, 2006). Recently
more practical definition of adaptation has been offered. According to (Moench and
Dixit, 2004) adaptation is the ability to switch strategies when faced with stresses,
including those due to climate change.
The ability of local populations to adapt to floods, droughts and patterns of climatic
variability is heavily influenced by the larger, changing context in which livelihoods
are based. As markets, communication technologies and transport infrastructure
increase flows between many regions are undergoing a process of dramatic social and
environmental change. These social changes are occurring in a context in which
environmental degradation and global climatic change are fundamentally
transforming the water resource base on which most agricultural livelihoods depend
(Moench and Dixit, 2004). As a result developing countries such as Nepal face far
more severe adaptation challenges. For such countries, there is need for creating a
new understanding between government and development agencies along with local
community for innovation and for adaptation (NCVST, 2009).
Those challenges have to be met by governments operating under severe financing
constraints and by poor people themselves (UNDP, 2007). Adapting to climate
5
change entails taking the right measures to reduce the negative effects of climate
change (or exploit the positive ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and
changes. There are many options and opportunities to adapt (UNFCCC, 2006). These
options range from technological options, such as increased sea defenses or flood-
proof houses on stilts, to behavior change at the individual level, such as reducing
water use in times of drought and using insecticide-sprayed mosquito nets. Adaptation
measures also include such as changes in land-use practices, and economic
diversification that reduce the impacts that local people (Batterbury and Forsyth,
1999).
1.2 Statement of Problem
Given that Nepal is dependent on South Asian Monsoon (SAM) for social and
economic well being and that the complex interrelation between SAM and the
country’s landscape, it is clear that climate will result in serious consequences as the
precipitation patterns is likely to become more erratic. NCVST (2009) does recognize
that the consequences are likely to be serious. Study conducted by Ahmed and
Mustafa suggest that climate change may exacerbate social and economic
vulnerability of communities and how they may adapt. But much more needs to be
done to understand the scale and nature of impact. This Local level assessment is
relevant in the country like Nepal which has high diversity within short spatial
distance. Such study at local level can help plan and implement alternative livelihood
and adaptation strategies (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007).
Changes in climatic-zones result in different cropping patterns and farming systems in
Nepal. Climatic parameters have the potential impact to alter the ecological
distribution of agricultural crops. If the expansion of climatic zones occurs rapidly
due to temperature rise, extinction of biodiversity might be severe (Malla, 2008).
Because of such consequences it is important to understand the effects at local level.
The study area lies in Nepal’s alpine region. Because the regions are more sensitive to
climate change in agricultural practices are more pronounced. For formulating plan to
adapt to climate change impacts, the knowledge of local community about climate
change and the strategies that take at individual and community level to respond to
different types of stresses should be known in the first place. This study is aimed at
understanding adaptation strategies that local inhabitants of the study village take to
offset impacts of climate change in agriculture sector.
6
1.3 Research Question
The questions raised in this study are as follows:
Have temperature and precipitation trends changed over time and space?
How have the record temperature and precipitation changed in the past?
Whether these changes match changes introduced by climate change
What are the observed impacts on mountain agriculture?
What strategies do the local people pursue to respond to these changes?
1.4 Objectives
The general objective of the study is to assess vulnerability of agriculture production
due to climate change. It also aimed to identify strategies pursued for adaptation.
Specifically the study aimed;
To assess the changes in climatic parameters using available
hydrological and meteorological data of Rasuwa District.
To analyze the socio-economic impacts of climate changes on
agriculture.
To explore strategies that local community can adapt to changing
agriculture production.
1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study
To answer the above questions, this research focuses on the impacts of climate change
on the agriculture and on livelihood of Timure VDC of Rasuwa District. The study is
based on field survey, analysis of data on land use and hydro-meteorology. The field
also aimed to understand adaptation strategy pursued by villagers of Timure VDC.
The report includes analysis of climate change as well adaptation strategies. The
finding will help other researcher engaged in studies on climate change and
adaptation. The report has following limitations.
It is limited to a specific site.
Information obtained from local villagers and informed persons.
The analysis is based on three hydro-meteorological stations
The duration of data is 20 years.
7
1.6 Overview of Contents
This report presents the findings in eight chapters. Chapter I provide introduction and
significance of the study as well as the objectives. Chapter II presents a brief
introduction to study area while chapter III presents literature review and hypothesis
developed to test whether the formulated objectives have been achieved. Chapter IV
describes research methodology in order to get answer to the research questions to test
the hypotheses as well as the study’s limitation. Chapter V and VI present people’s
perception on impacts of climate change including temperature, precipitation and
changes in land use. Finally chapter VII presents conclusion and recommendations
and provides suggestions for future research.
8
Chapter II
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 General
The climate system is made up of a multitude of interlinking environmental
components, and therefore can be viewed as the status of the entire Earth system,
including the atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things (as shown by
Figure 1). The conditions of these components of the climate system form the
background conditions for the occurrence of certain weather patterns.
Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of typically
30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale (IPCC, 2007).
Therefore if the variability of the weather changes (as determined by statistics), this is
what we understand as ―climate change‖. Meteorological observations have shown
that measurements of some elements of weather, such as temperature and rainfall, in
certain regions of the world, have changed markedly during the 20th Century.
Whilst weather can be extremely chaotic, changing on a daily basis, climate is less
variable as it is a measure of average weather over a much longer period
(MDP/UNITAR, 2009). Therefore it must be noted that variability in the weather in
any one location/region is not evidence for or against any trend in the mean global
climate regime; such that a cold winter in a certain region is not evidence for or
against the fact that climate change is occurring in the long term on a global scale.
There will always be extremes of hot and cold weather, although their frequency and
intensity may change as the climate changes.
Scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 1800s when natural changes
in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first quantified.
Shortly after thermometer was invented in the early 1600s, scientists began efforts to
quantify and record the parameters of weather. In the 1820s Jean Baptiste Joseph
Fourier discovered that "greenhouse gasses" trap heat radiated from the Earth's
surface after it has absorbed energy from the sun. In 1859 another scientist John
Tyndall suggested that ice ages were caused by a decrease in the amount of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. The idea of global warming languished until 1938, when
9
Guy S. Callender suggested that the warming trend revealed in the 19th century had
been caused
Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system
by a 10% increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels
(Harding, 2007). During the 1970s,
scientific opinion increasingly favored the
warming viewpoint. In 1988, the World
Meteorological Organization with the
support of United Nation Environment
Programme established the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) which continues its work
on climate change issues with series of
assessment reports and supplemental
reports that describe the state of scientific
understanding at the time each report is
prepared.
Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and
modern data
10
2.2 Global Climate Change
IPCC’s fourth assessment report (2007) suggests that global climate change increases
in the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and landmasses. Scientists
believe that the Earth is currently facing a period of rapid warming brought about by
rising levels of heat-trapping gases, known as greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases retain the radiant energy (heat) provided to Earth by the Sun in a
process known as the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases occur naturally, and
without them the planet would become too cold to sustain life as we know it. Since
the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s, however, human
activities have added more and more of these gases in the atmosphere. For example,
levels of carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas, has increased by 35 percent
since 1750, largely from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.
With more greenhouse gases (GHG) in the mix, the atmosphere acts like a thickening
blanket and traps more heat (IPCC, 2007).
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions
have grown between 1970 and 2004 by about 80%, from 21 to 38 Giga tones (Gt). It
represented 77% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004. The rate of growth
of CO2-eq emissions was higher during 10-year period of 1995-2004 (IPCC, 2007).
For the next two decades (2020 to 2030) a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is
projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all
GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
11
2.2.1 Change in Global Temperature
Scientists suggest that global warming will continue at a rate that is unprecedented in
hundreds of thousands of years of Earth’s history. They suggest that 21st century
because higher the level of greenhouse gases are emitted, will experience more
warming. In the last from 1995 to 2005, 1998 and 2005 were the warmest two years in
the global surface air temperature record since 1850. Surface temperatures in 1998
were enhanced by the major 1997–1998 El Niño event but no such strong anomaly
was present in 2005.
Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) with the exception of 1996 were ranked
among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850. Assuming higher emissions of
GHG to continue significantly during the century scientists suggest further warming
of 2.4 to 6.4°C (4.3 to 11.5°F) by 2100 is possible. Even if a lower scenario of lower
emissions in which emissions grow slowly, peaking around the year 2050 is assumed,
and modeling exercise suggests that warming of 1.1 to 2.9°C(1.9 to 5.2° F) by the
year 2100 (IPCC, 2007) is likely.
It is also reported that warming of the Polar Regions has been amplified by the
melting of ice, which in turn exposes Dark Ocean and dark land. Instead of reflecting
radiation as the ice does, the exposed dark land absorbs almost 80% of the incoming
solar radiation leading to rapid warming of the Arctic. This shift will enhance global
mean temperature change around world, potentially (due to cause-effect feedback
mechanisms in the climate system) causing higher rise in sea level and, in the most
extreme climatic scenarios. For people living in coastal areas, even an increase in the
sea level by just a few centimetres could cause significant problems of erosion,
Figure 3: Observed Surface Air Temperature
12
flooding and damage to homes, livelihoods and infrastructure. Changes in
temperature patterns may damage food crops, disrupting food system in some parts of
the world. Plant and animal species will shift their ranges toward the poles or to
higher elevations seeking cooler temperatures and species that cannot do so may
become extinct. According to IPCC (2007) increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere also leads to increased ocean acidity, damaging ocean ecosystems.
2.2.2 Change in Global Precipitation
IPCC also suggests that an increase in the average global temperature is likely to lead
to changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture because of changes in
atmospheric circulation and increases in evaporation and water vapor. From 1900 to
2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts of the
Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel,
the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia. Patterns of
precipitation change are more spatially and seasonally variable than temperature
change, but where significant precipitation changes do occur they are consistent with
measured changes in stream flow (IPCC, 2007).
2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal
2.3.1 The Himalaya Region
Basic patterns of the climate in the Himalaya region are governed by the SAM and
winter monsoon systems of Asia (Mani, 1981) The central and eastern Himalaya
receives most precipitation during summer and the western Himalayan region receives
most of its precipitation in winter. The Himalaya regions show a wide variety of
climates. For every 1000m of altitude, there is generally about a 6° C temperature
drop. However, the temperature may vary from place to place. An east facing slope
has warm mornings and cool afternoons while a west facing slope the opposite. The
snow and ice over the Himalaya play an important role on the radiation balance of the
region and on the strength of Indian monsoon (Khandekar, 1992).
In its fourth assessment report, the IPCC depicts the Hindu Kush-Himalaya, including
Nepal, as a white spot, a region about which scientific information on climate change
is limited or lacking altogether. It is difficult to identify an accurate change in the
Himalayan climate because of its large size, inaccessibility and unavailability of
systematic climatological data (Chalise, 1994). Study conducted by Agarwal et al
13
(2003) shows that the temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau were increasing, and that
higher elevations were warming faster than the lower ones.
2.3.2 In Nepal
Nepal possesses various types of climate that ranges from alpine to tropical type from
the north to south border because of its diverse topography and steep slope.
Generally, there are four seasons in Nepal: summer monsoon (June-September), post-
monsoon (October-November), winter (December – February) and pre-monsoon
(March-May) (Yogacharya, 1998). The climate of Nepal is dominated by SAM and
about 80% of annual precipitation occurs during the summer monsoon (UNEP, 2001).
The length of the regular and systematic observations of climatological and
hydrological data in Nepal is only about 50 years old. Though systems for the
collection and dissemination of hydrological and meteorological data exist the
numbers of data gathering stations are insufficient. The existing stations are generally
located at the lower elevations in valleys and accessible places. Studies shows that
local variations in rainfall amount and timing can be drastic, with ridge receiving 4-5
times the rainfall amounts of
the valley situated nearby
(Higuchi et al, 1982).
2.3.2.1 Green House Gas
emission in Nepal
The per capita GHG emission
of Nepal is estimated at 42.6
Kg of CO2 in 1990 and 220.6
Kg of CO2 in 2030 which is
far below the emission levels
of other developing countries
(CSMT, 1996). The emission is
largely from rice field, solid waste, fossil fuel burning in cities and deforestation.
According to Maplecroft report on 2010 Nepal rank fourth most vulnerable country
due to climate change impacts, yet it has one of the lowest emissions in the world -
just 3, 241 thousand metric tons of CO2 (CDIAC, 2009) and 0.025% of total global
Figure 4: Carbon dioxide Emission of Nepal
14
Greenhouse Gas Emissions. On the whole the overall emission level of Nepal is
negligible as compared to other developing neighboring countries.
2.3.2.2 Change in Temperature
According to study carried out by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the
average temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rate of 0.06°C/year. However the
temperature rise in Himalayan region is higher at 0.08 °C/year than other region.
Average annual temperature in the Tarai region is increased by 0.04 °C/year (Shrestha
et al., 1999). Increase in temperature is lower in the monsoon and post monsoon
season than winter and pre-monsoon, by up to 1.6 °C by the 2090s; this difference is
partly due to the projected increase in monsoon rainfall and cloud cover, which will
reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance cooling through evaporation. Projected
temperature increases are lower in eastern Nepal than western and central by the
2090s and this difference will be about 0.7 °C (NCVST, 2009).
The variation is temperature in Nepal means that crop grown season is different. In
Himalaya region, for example, a single crop is grown in a year because temperature is
low and in such temperature crop takes more time to ripe. On the other hand, in the
Tarai, three crops a year can be grown if water supply is adequate. Similarly single
rice cropping is possible up to elevations of 2300 m in Jumla while double rice
cropping is limited to regions below 800 m.
2.3.2.3 Change in Precipitation
The varied landscape of Nepal matches its varies rainfall. During the SAM (June-
September) most locations in Nepal receive about to 80% of their annual precipitation
as rainfall. Topography interacts with the SAM to produce large variations in
precipitation (NCVST, 2009). Nearly 64% of the precipitations flow as surface runoff
in the rivers. Of the remaining 36%, some is retained as snow in the high Himalaya,
some percolates through the ground as ground water acting as natural reservoirs
which feeds the rivers to keep them flowing during the dry season. Nearly 8% of the
country’s area is estimated to be under permanent snow cover. Snow fall is estimated
to contribute about 10% of the total precipitation (Shrestha et al, 2003).
A study conducted by MOPE in 2004 has suggested that for the period 1981-1998 the
hills and mountains in the north showed across Nepal revealed that the hills and
mountains in the north showed increasing trends of rainfall while the plains in the
south were experiencing trend of rainfall. According NCVST (2009), modelling study
15
does not show a clear trend of increase or decreases projected mean annual
precipitation however suggested that precipitation is likely to be more uncertain
though storm intensity is anticipated to increase. GCMs project a wide range of
precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s
increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s.The study also found that eastern and central
Nepal monsoon rainfall is projected to increase more than western Nepal.
2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture
In the 21st century, human will perhaps face more devastating, environmental threat,
namely due to global warming and thereby climate change. These changes could
result in irreversible damage to land and water ecosystems and loss of production
potential (IIASA, 2002). Climate change is interrelated with agriculture as both of
which take place on a global scale and has significant impact on agriculture in many
parts of the world (IPCC, 2007). Environmental change, particularly climate change,
will have a disproportionate impact on poor people in rural areas where livelihoods of
the majority depend directly on natural resources. Mountain agriculture, practiced
close to the margins of viable production, could be highly sensitive to climate change.
Risk levels of climate can induce large changes in risks in mountain agriculture
(Carter and Pary, 1994).
At the global level, the share of agriculture in total gross domestic product (GDP) of
developing countries is about 13%, in contrast to 2% of the developed countries. For
central, eastern, and western Africa, this share is over 31%, and in for South Asia it is
around 25%. The growing demand for food for an increasing population is threatening
natural resources as people strive to get the most out of land already in production
(IIASA, 2002). The problem become more serious when emerging water scarcity is
kept in mind due to climate change. The twin effects of growing demand and scarce
water are likely to pose serious threat to food security, poverty reduction and
protection of the environment. Sensitivity of food production to climate change is
greatest in developing countries due to less advanced technological buffering to
drought and floods (Parry et al, 1998). That is not the case in developing countries.
Most agronomists perceive that agricultural production will be affected by the
severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If
change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate
16
change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are
already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less
time for optimum natural selection and adaptation.
2.4.1 Agriculture and GHGs Emission
Agriculture is one of the major sectors that has severe climate change impact. At the
same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate
change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land
cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus
contributing to radiative forcing. Agriculture releases significant amounts of CO2,
CH4, and N2O to the atmosphere (Cole et al., 1997; IPCC, 2001a; Paustian et al.,
2004). According to IPCC 2007, agriculture accounted for an estimated emission of
5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2005 (10-12% of total global anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases).
Agricultural performance will also be governed by generation of GHGs. The more is
the agricultural production, the more will be the emission. The negligible GHGs
production from agriculture shows that Nepal has less production. Study conducted at
Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) at Khumaltar showed average seasonal
methane emission from rice fields was 28kg/ha/season in rain-fed condition and also
found average maximum methane emission from rice field was 49.03 kg/ha in the
field supplied with 50% nitrogen + 15 cm stubble. Minimum of 7.7 kg/ha of methane
gas was found in the control fields. Further research on the GHGs in different eco-
zones is required to quantify and verify their contribution more precisely in the
agriculture (Malla, 2006).
2.4.2 Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal
Agriculture land occupies nearly 20% of the total area of Nepal (UNEP, 2001). Out of
the total cultivated area of 29,680 sq km, only about 9,200 sq. km of the land is
currently irrigated and the rest of the area is dependent solely on rainfall for meeting
crop water requirements. As mentioned earlier agriculture plays an important role in
Nepal’s economy because the sector provides employment to around 76% of the
population, but contributes only about 35% of the total Gross Domestic Product
(NPC, 2010). Clearly this is a gap that needs to be addressed by pursuing appropriate
17
policies. About 81% of the populations currently have a daily income of less than
US$ 2 (World Bank, 2005) and most of them are subsistence farmers. Per capita
cereal grain availability has fallen from 198 kg in 1991 to an estimated 186 kg in 1997
and many districts face food deficits (UN, 1999). Thus food insecurity in Nepal
manifests itself in terms of insufficient per capita availability from own production.
This context may be due to low productivity, bad weather or the small size of holding
- a high proportion of rain fed farmers has holdings too small to produce enough
calories to feed the family (FAO, 2004).
In Nepal, most of the population relies on rice, maize and wheat that constitute about
38%, 17% and 14% of the total calorie supply respectively (FAO, 2004). Climatic
factors like precipitation and temperature can have significant impact on their
production. Lack of rains can create scientifically curious practices. Lack of rain
meant no moisture in land and farmers of Sindhupalchowk District conducted
marriage ceremony between toads in 2008 (Dixit, 2009). This practice shows how
severely famer’s livelihood has been affected variable rainfall but as is evident from
above discussion, it is very hard to attribute such anomalies to climate change.
Similarly eastern Tarai faced rain deficit in early monsoon of 2005/06. This meant
that crop production decreased by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of agricultural
land was left fallow. During the same period in mid-western Tarai heavy rain caused
major floods and in turn reduced agriculture production by 30% (Regmi, 2007).
According to NCVST (2009) production of vegetable protein (lentils, chick peas,
beans, and the like) has declined due to delayed monsoon rains and/or vertical shifts
in temperature regime.
2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities"
(IPCC, 2007). Responding to climate change, societies can respond to climate change
by adapting to its impacts and by reducing GHG emissions (mitigation), thereby
reducing the rate and magnitude of change. The capacity to adapt and mitigate is
dependent on socio-economic and environmental circumstances and the availability of
information and technology. The capacity to adapt is dynamic and is influenced by a
society’s productive base, including natural and man-made capital assets, social
networks and entitlements, human capital and institutions, governance, national
18
income, health and technology. It is also affected by multiple climate and non-climate
stresses, as well as development policy (IPCC synthesis, 2007).
More recent literature and studies suggest that adaptation is more than ―coping‖. In
well-adapted systems, people are doing well despite changing conditions. They are
doing well either because they shift strategies or because the underlying systems on
which their livelihoods are based are sufficiently resilient and flexible to absorb the
impact of changes (NCVST, 2009). Adaptation measures are categorized into two
parts.
A. Planned Adaptation:
Planned adaptations can be either reactive or anticipatory (undertaken before impacts
are apparent) (Shrestha et al., 2003). It includes programs and projects that
governments, NGOs, and international donors implement as a result of specific
climate impacts and vulnerability assessments. Planned adaptations are generally
made to respond to predicted impacts on ecosystem and hydrological system
(NCVST, 2009).
B. Autonomous Adaptation:
Autonomous adaptation includes actions that individuals, communities, businesses
and other organizations undertake on their own in response to the opportunities and
constraints they face as the climate changes. Autonomous actions are individual or
collective responses, almost entirely in the poorly recorded informal sector. These
involve changes in practices and technologies, diversification of livelihood systems,
access to financial resources, migration, resource rights and collective action to assess
services, resources or markets (NCVST, 2009)
2.5.1 Adaptation and Agriculture
The adaptive capacity of a resource system or a human society depends on the
resilience of these systems (IPCC, 2007). The resilience of agricultural practices in
the face of climate change depends on the nature and magnitude of region-specific
climate change, regional sensitivity, or the threshold and social resilience and
adaptive capacity of agricultural communities. Adjustment of planting dates to
minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced spikelet sterility can be used to
reduce yield instability, for example, by avoiding having the flowering period to
coincide with the hottest period. Adaptation measures to reduce the negative effects of
19
increased climatic variability may include changing the cropping calendar to take
advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons and
storms) during the growing season (IPCC, 2007).
Due to late Monsoon and decrease in rainfall, farmers of Abukhaireni VDC in
Tanahun district of Nepal were forced to slash and burn the nearby forest and
cultivate in the land to cope up with the potential food shortages as they depended
only on the rain-fed land (Regmi, 2005). Nepalese households need to reduce their
dependency on agriculture, and the government has to increase food security through
various planned measures (FAO, 2007). Plan should include better storage and
distribution of food and unhindered access to markets. With changes in precipitation
and hydrology, temperature, length of growing season and frequency of extreme
weather events, considerable efforts would be required to prepare to deal with
climate-related impacts in agriculture.
2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability
21st century, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions, conventional
climate change impact studies focused primarily on physical exposure to average
climatic conditions in attempts to identify the vulnerabilities of a system. Carter et al
in 1994 proposed the need to conduct climate impact assessments in order to assist in
evaluating vulnerabilities to likely scenarios of climate change. They defined
vulnerability as the degree to which an exposure unit is disrupted or adversely
affected as a result of climatic effects.
The concept of vulnerability is at the kernel of our understanding of how communities
and natural systems, institutional structures and social relationships are affected by
climate change (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007). The IPCC, in its Second Assessment
Report, defines vulnerability as ―the extent to which climate change may damage or
harm a system.‖ It adds that vulnerability ―depends not only on a system’s sensitivity,
but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions‖ (Watson et al. 1996).
Looking at vulnerability from the food security point of view, the FAO publication
The State of Food Insecurity in the World (1999), defines vulnerability as ―the
presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or
malnourished.‖ Clearly, this definition encompasses causes of food insecurity other
than climate change (e.g., armed conflict, landlessness, etc.). Nevertheless, the
20
concept of vulnerability includes hunger vulnerability—which refers to the
vulnerability of individuals or households rather than that of regions or economic
sectors (Olmos, 2001).
Climate change impact assessment refers to research and investigations designed to
find out what effect future changes in climate could have on human activities and the
natural world. Climate change impact assessment is frequently coupled with the
identification and assessment of possible adaptive responses to a changing climate
(UNEP, 2005).
A climate change impact assessment in agriculture usually begins by defining what is
usually called a baseline. A baseline consists in a reference climate defined for some
previously established past time period, usually 30 years, and a reference
socioeconomic baseline for the same period depicting the actual state of the
agricultural sector and a whole set of socioeconomic indicators describing the general
socioeconomic, technological, and management conditions in which agriculture has
been developing during that chosen time period. For well-based reasons a 30-year
period is usually chosen to coincide with what World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) defines as a normal period, which is 1961 – 1990. In some cases two
subsequent normal periods such as 1931 – 1960 and 1961 – 1990 are studied to find if
there is some significant difference between the behaviour of mean climate and some
extreme phenomena such analysis was done with meteorological drought in Cuba.
(Vega, 2008)
2.7 Agriculture policy and plans
Nepal has developed policies, strategies, plans and programs to improve agriculture
production. The 20 year Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) 1997-2017, poverty
Reduction Strategy Papers or the medium term periodic plans (Tenth Five year Plan
and Three Year Interim Plan), and the National Agriculture Policy (2004) and
National Agriculture Policy (2006) outline the broader policy context for agriculture
development in Nepal. APP emphasizes on few priority inputs, outputs and outcomes
(NAPA/TWG, 2010).
The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) has also identified
agriculture as one of the most important sector to be addressed. In 2011 Government
21
of Nepal Approved Nepal Climate Change Policy which tries to incorporate issues of
agriculture insurance when crop production fails.
2.8 Development of Hypothesis
The hypotheses used in the study were as follows.
In Nepal, temperature is rising and its rate of increase is higher in the
mountain than in the Tarai.
Unlike temperature, precipitation data does not reveal any significant change
in their trends. The inter-annual variation of rainfall, particularly monsoon
precipitation, is so large that observed trends are uncertain.
Climate change is the cause of decline in agriculture production and livestock
production.
Impacts of climate change are likely to increase.
Appropriate adaptive strategies to reduce impact of climate change at
community level
22
Chapter III
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Approach
The selection of methodology is one of the most important parts of any research. To
identify impacts of climate change on agriculture the study has taken households as
the unit of analysis. According to UNDP (2005), in rural economies, it may be more
appropriate to focus on the household or village as the unit of response. Here the
objective may be to secure a minimum level of income rather than to maximize it, and
the focus of analysis should be on the strategies developed to reduce the negative
effects of crop yield rather than on those to increase the positive ones. Frequently
referred to as coping strategies, these have been analyzed in particular detail in the
context of risk of hunger (often related to drought). Thus, climate impact assessments
which included analysis of responses at household and village level tended to borrow
from existing approaches, tailoring them to consider changes in climate rather than
variations of weather. This model was used in climate impact assessment in Kenya
and India, see Akong’s et al. (1988) and in Gadgil et al. (1988) in Parry et al. (1988).
Geographical Information System (GIS) application by using ArcGIS 9.3 software
was carried out for assessment of land use changes. This method also included
mapping of changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation. The study made
attempts to explore the extent and rate of shift of agriculture land in study area with
changes in temperature and precipitation.
3.2 Criteria for Site Selection
Based on literature review and objectives set for this study, selection of study site
follows following criteria
• Study site located at mountain region
• Agriculture practice depending upon rainfall
• Availability of meteorological station in study site
• Accessible for research
As Timure VDC fulfills the above mentioned criteria so it is selected as study site.
23
3.3 Study Area
3.3.1 Country’s Background
3.3.1.1 Overview
Bounded in the East, West and South by India and in the North by the Tibetan
autonomous region of the People’s Republic of China, Nepal has mountainous and
hilly topography. Nepal extends on an average 885 km in the east-west direction and
193 km in the north-south direction. With an area of 147,181 km², Nepal is divided
into five development regions, 14 zones and 75 districts. After the introduction of
republican order, Nepal political and administrative boundaries are being redefined
but decisions have yet to be taken. According to the interim constitution Nepal will be
a federal republic.
Nepal’s altitude ranges from 60 m in the Tarai in the south to 8848 m in the High
Himalaya in the north. Lying between altitudes ranging from 4,877 to 8,848m above
sea level, the mountain region includes more than 250 peaks with elevations above
6000m and 13 peaks with elevation of over 8000m. Mt. Everest the highest peak in
the world is located in Nepal eastern Himalays. Nepal Tarai region occupies about
15% of the total area of the country while rest is under hill and mountain.
Nepal has been divided into seven eco-zones (Upreti and Dhital, 1996 based on
Hagan 1969) and this division emerges from complex mountain building processes.
a) Tarai (1000-2000m)
b) Chure range(Siwalik, 200-700m)
c) Mahabharat Range (1000-2500m)
d) Fore Himalaya (2000-4500m)
e) Higher Himalaya (>4000m) and
f) Inner Valleys (2500-4000m)
As result of the diverse landscapes Nepal has rich bio diversity. The landscape
accommodates 7,000 species of flowering plants, 175species of mammals, 170
species of fishes, 861 species of birds, and over 6,000 species of butterflies (IUCN,
1996). Apart from its richness in biodiversity and water resources, the high relief and
steep and rugged topography results low accessibility and physical hardship and
productive agriculture limited to the Tarai, river terraces and valley bottoms. These
24
pose enormous challenges to provide basic services such as drinking water, energy
and food to the people. Only 29% of the land is suitable for agriculture and rest is
marginal land comprising of steep slopes, flood/landslide prone areas, high relief, and
snow and ice (CBS, 2008). Karnali, Gandaki and Koshi are three main river basins of
Nepal with a drainage area of 191,000 sq km. About 74 % of this basin area lies in
Nepal.
3.3.1.2 Climatic Variation
Nepal’s climate is affected by two major natural features, the Himalayan mountain
range and the SAM. The annual mean temperature of around 15°C gradually increases
from the north to the south with exceptions in the valleys in the mountains. Many
valleys are warm and have sub-tropical climate. Nepal’s annual mean precipitation is
around 1800 mm. The diverse climatic condition of the country has been classified
into the following five types:
Table 1: Climate region in Nepal
S.N. Climate type Elevation Temperature Rainfall
1. Sub-tropical 1000 m 20-25°C 1100-3000 mm
2. Warm Temperate 1000 m-2000 m 15°-20°C 500-2300 mm
3. Cool Temperate 2000 m -3000 m 3°C-10°C 275 to 2,000
mm
4. Alpine 3000 m-4500 m 3°C-10°C 150-200 mm
5. Tundra Above 4500 m less than 3°C -
Source: MoEnv, 2010
3.3.1.3 Population and Distribution
The increase in population and horizontal expansion of cultivated area in Nepal has
been dramatic since 1950s. Of the several factors that contributed to the
transformations: one is the improvement of health care, particularly eradication of
once malarial infested Tarai (Ives and Messerli, 1989). In 1950 Nepal had a
population of 9 million which increased to 28,901,790 in 2007: as rise of 3 times.
According to CBS of 2001, the population of Nepal has increased from 18.5million in
1991 to 23.2 million in 2001 with an annual growth rate of 2.27%. Correspondingly,
the population density has increased from 126 to 158 persons / km². The urban
population has increased to 14.2% of the total in 2001 distributed over 58 urban
centers as against 9.2 % in 1991. The Tarai remain the densely populated region of
Nepal due to better accessibility and fertile soil.
25
3.3.1.4 Socio-Economic Features
Human Development Index of 5.1, Nepal ranked 144th out of 174 countries in 2009.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2008 was estimated at over US$12
billion (adjusted to Nominal GDP), making it the 115th economy in the world (HDR,
2009). Above 76% of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture, (NPC,
2010), and this sector is the second largest contributor to the GDP 33%, after service
sector at 39%. Agricultural produces grown in the Tarai region includes tea, rice,
corn, wheat, sugarcane, root crops, milk, and buffalo meat. However varying rainfall
nature of agriculture its contribution to GDP greatly depends upon the favourability of
the weather during crop in season. The share of industry’s contribution to GDP was
much lower at 23% in 2009 (ADB, 2009). Industry mainly involves the processing of
agricultural produce, including jute, sugarcane, tobacco, and grains. Due to high
dependency in agriculture, any direct change in the climatic variables will seriously
affect the agriculture and economy.
3.3.2 Rasuwa District
Rasuwa district is one of the remote Himalayan districts in Nepal. It is bordered with
Tibet an autonomous region of China in North and with three districts of Nepal, in
east with Sindhupalchowk, in south Nuwakot and in west Dhading. It has 18 VDCs
and Timure is also one of them that is located near the China boarder. It is located at
27°55’ N to 28°25’ N longitude and 85°00’E to 85°50’E latitude and altitude ranges
from 614m to 7227m. It has 1512 sq. km area covering High Mountain, mid hill,
valley and river basin.
Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district
S.N. Land cover Area (ha) Percentage
1. Forest 47494 31.4
2. Shrub/bush 15667 10.4
3. Agriculture land/Grass land 9443 6.3
4. Water bodies 54 0.0
5. Bare land 8983 5.9
6. Snow 25138 16.6
7. Others 44308 29.3
Environment statistics of Nepal (CBS, 2004)
The population of Rasuwa district is 44,731 according to CBS census in 2001. It is
0.19 percent of total population in Nepal. Population density of district is less 30 per
26
sq. km due to its extreme train. Most of the people residing in this district are from
Tamang community which covers 63.75 percent of total population. Per capita
income of people residing here is 331 USD.
In Rasuwa district extreme temperature variation exist due to uneven topographical
feature. District can be divided in to three sub climatic zone tundra, alpine, temperate
(CBS, 2005). Average temperature ranges from 4°C in winter to 24°C in summer and
average rainfall is 691.7mm.
3.3.3 Timure VDC
Figure 5: Timure Village
This study uses findings from Timure Village Development Committee (VDC). The
VDC is selected because of its marginal socio-economic and agricultural character.
The VDC lies in Rasuwa District in the Bagmati Zone of Central Nepal.
Geographically the VDC is located between 85°20‖N and 85° 36‖ N longitude and
28° 12‖E and 28° 21‖E Latitude (Survey Department, 1992). The VDC has a total
area 154.05 km². It is bordered by Tibetan Autonomous region of China on the north
and Langtang VDC on the east, Bridim VDC on the south, and Thuman VDC on the
west. Bedang, Bhrangkhark, Ghattekhola Gaun, Khaidi, Rasuwagadhi, Timure
(Sedang) are the major settlements of this VDC. The altitude of these settlements
ranges from 1,730 m to 3,730 m. along the trail to Timure village many Manis and
chhorten are found. The historical fort of Rasuwagadhi also lies in this VDC.
27
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has established a meteorological station
in Timure that measures temperature and rainfall.
Topography has influence on the climate of Timure VDC. In the mid hills of the VDC
above 2500m (e.g. Khaidi, Bhrangkhark) climate is temperate (NGIIP, 2002). In the
higher regions above 5000 m alpine climate prevails. The average annual temperature
measured in Timure village is 16.8ºC with 11.4ºC minimum and 22.1ºC maximum
averages (DHM, 2009). Ghattekhola and Timure lies in Basin of Bhotekoshi River are
relatively warmer than other settlements of this VDC. The monsoon brings lot of rains
from June to September. October, November, March and April are clear with pleasant
climate. Snowfall occurs in the month of January and February due to the westerlies.
3.3.3.1 Demography
Annual population growth rate of the VDC is -0.83. This negative growth rate may
be due to high infant mortality rate (101.03) or that young people migration to Gulf
and European country. 80.65 percent Tamang, 11.6 percent Newar, 3.9 percent
Chhetri and 1.35 percent Brahmin and Magar resides in this VDC. The average
literacy rate is 34.4 percent which includes 44.7 percent of male and 22.8 percent
literacy among women.
A single health post in the VDC provides basic health services to local people. But the
post has insufficient facilities. Local people depend on the hospital at Dhunche or
Kathmandu for treating diseases. Skin diseases, respiratory illness, diarrhea, eye
diseases, round and tape worm, anemia, disorders related with vitamins and nutrition
are the major ailment that affect the people of Timure VDC the most (Rasuwa District
Profile, 2008).
3.3.3.2 Socio-economic feature
In Timure VDC 77.9 percent of total population (above 10 year) is involved in some
form of income generating activities like agriculture, government service, business
etc. The male members are more active than female: 174 men and 146 females
women are engaged in economic activities. Out of 102 households only 12 do not
depend on agriculture. Three households are engaged in business while 9 households
depend on government services. As resident of Timure used to trade with Tibet, but
when Tibet became autonomous region of China the volume of trade reduced.
28
Farming system of the VDC is traditional and subsistence. As mentioned earlier about
88.2 percent of people are dependent on agriculture (Rasuwa District Profile, 2008).
The system is also based on keeping only 119 ha cultivated land in the VDC and the
villager grow maize, potato, millet, wheat, apple, cabbage and chili(NGIIP, 2002).
The climate of Khaidi village is favorable for horticulture and vegetable farming.
Livestock is a major source of cash income for the farmers of Khaidi Village. Yak,
sheep, goat, cattle and buffalo are the major livestock kept in this VDC. Near
Rasuwagadi and Timure off farm business like pottering and hotel business are
important for those who live along the foot trail.
3.3.3.3 Geology
With an uneven as the altitude ranging from 1700m to more than 5000 m, slate,
phyllite, schist and quartzite are dominant rocks available in the VDC. Lende Khola
and Kerung Khola are head waters of Trisuli River and they meet at Rasuwagadi. In
1964, Longda Glacier Lake breached causing a glacial lake outburst flood
(Bajracharya, 2009). In this GLOF event, Lende Khola transported huge amount of
sediments and deposited them near Timure and Ghattekhola village. The present
topography of Ghattekhola village was largely defined by this event.
3.3.3.4 Energy
The residents of Timure VDC depend on traditional, commercial and alternative
sources to meet their energy needs. Fuel wood, animal dung and agricultural residue
are the main energy sources of traditional. Similarly, petroleum products constitute
commercial energy source whereas micro hydro and solar are other renewable energy
sources. Almost all the population of Timure VDC depends on fuel wood for cooking
purpose. A micro hydro plant with capacity to produce 115 KW of electricity is built
in Ghatte Khola which serves all households of Timure VDC with electricity for
lighting. The residents are dependent on Langtang National Park for fuel wood. They
collect timber to meet construction needs from the park. This dependence puts
pressure on forest and biodiversity of the national park.
3.3.3.5 Transportation and communication
Communication and transportation are the major indicators of development. The VDC
is not linked with any motorable road. The nearest road head is Syafrubesi which is 12
km ahead and it takes 5 hours to walk to Timure. Nepal Telecom has provided
29
CDMA phones and V-SAT services which helps local communities to communicate.
There is single line of V-SAT and 7 CDMA phones in the VDC (Rasuwa District
Profile 2005). With assistance of Chinese government the 18km long motorable
Kerung-Rasuwagadi-Timure road is being built. The road will connect with
Kathmandu-Syafrubesi road and is likely to improve mobility and trading
opportunities with Kerung, Bazar and Kathmandu.
3.3.4 Map of Study Area
Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC
3.4 Research Design
The field work for the research was carried out on June 2009. The research design is
presented in figure 7.
30
Figure 7: Research design
3.5 Data Collection
The collection of data involved the following activities.
3.5.1 Primary Data
3.5.1.1 Field Survey
As the research includes assessment of the condition of study area, direct observations
is important. Various information and present issues have been collected through
direct observation during the field visit. A detail check list was prepared and used for
collecting data during the transect visit. The research elicits information by staying in
close proximity of study area.
3.5.1.2 Household Questionnaire survey
Household questionnaire was administered to assess the adaptive strategy for
agriculture practice in study site. A total of 31 households were randomly selected for
the purpose of household survey. Household survey covers 30.39 percent of sample
size. The list was collected from offices of the VDC and District Development
Committee (DDC). A semi-structured questionnaire was prepared including both
31
close - and open - ended questions. The questionnaire incorporated different aspects
of climate change, hazards, and agricultural production.
3.5.1.3 Key Informant Survey and Focus Group Discussion (FGD):
These methods were applied to
draw different information from the
key informants to identify resources
and the challenges for the
assessment of climate change
impacts. The opinions were
collected through formal and
informal discussions with key
informants and through focus group
discussions.
3.5.2 Secondary Data
3.5.2.1 Hydro-meteorological data analysis:
• Temperature record from 1989 to 2008
• Rainfall record from 1975 to 2007
The available hydro meteorological data for in Rasuwa district was analyzed for
detecting annual variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge of Trisuli
River were looked. The following details were looked at.
a. Trends in mean maximum temperature
b. Precipitation
c. River runoff
The data related to rainfall and temperature was taken from Meteorological Records
of Nepal published by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).
Rainfall and temperature record from Dhunche, Langtang and Timre stations were
estimated. For estimating the average temperature and rainfall, the arithmetic mean
method was employed. The five year moving average method was used to find out the
normal trend value for the unit of time falling at the middle of the period covered in
the calculation of average.
Figure 8: Focus Group Discussions
32
3.5.2.2 Spatial Analysis
Data provided from Department of Survey (DoS) were used to analyze land use
change, trend and shift, extent, timing, form of precipitation and temperature of the
study area. All the data, information so far collected was compiled using GIS
software. A comprehensive GIS-based analysis, ArcGIS 9.3 Spatial Analyst, was used
in order to demonstrate the change in climate and its effect on agriculture practice.
To find the trend of temperature and precipitation change, Inverse Distance Weighted
(IDW) interpolation tool was used. Interpolation is a procedure used to predict the
values of cells at locations that lack sampled points. IDW estimates cell values by
averaging the values of simple data points in the vicinity of each cell. The closer a
point is to the center of the cell being estimated, the more influence, or weight; it has
in the averaging process. This method assumes that the variable being mapped
decreases in influence with distance from its sampled location (McCoy and Johnston,
2002).
For the interpolation, following meteorological stations which are around the study
area were selected.
Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation
33
1. Jomsom 2. LarkeSamdo 3.Jagat
4. Chekampar 5. Nuwakot 6.Pansayakhola
5. Dhunche 8. Langtang 9.Timure
10. Tarke Ghyang 11. Jiri
3.5.2.3 Socio-Economic and Other Data
Data published from CBS was used to analyze socioeconomic status of the study area.
Books, annual reports and other publications from different governmental and non-
governmental organizations, related websites and online publications etc. were
reviewed for secondary information.
3.6 Data Analysis
3.6.1 Primary data
For analyzing socio-economic data collected from the field were analyzed using MS
Excel and SPSS. Bar diagram and pie chart were generated after the analysis.
3.6.2 Secondary data
For the analysis of agriculture landuse change ArcGIS 9.3 software was used.
Secondary data was collected from Nepal Landuse Project and Department of Survey.
Arithmetic mean and linear trend was used to analyze hydro-meteorological data
which was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.
34
Chapter IV
OBSERVATION AND RESULTS
4.1 Socio-Economic Status and People’s Perception
4.1.1 Population and Ethnicity
Based on ethnicity, the major groups of the respondent were Janajati covering 83.76%
of Tamang, followed by Newar 11.63% and Magar 4.88%. The distribution of ethnic
groups with their % population is shown in the figure 10.
Figure 10: Ethnicity of Respondents
The respondents of the population comprised of 70.97% male and 29.03% female.
The distribution of male and female percentage population in study is presented as
below.
Figure 11: Sex Ratio
83.72%
11.63%4.88%
Tamang Newar Magar
70.97%
29.03%
Male Female
35
4.1.2 Literacy Rate and Family Structure
The literacy status of the sampled households of the study sites were illiterate, literate
(just read and write) and up to SLC (primary and secondary level education) covering
62.79%, 25.58% and 11.63%, which indicates that there is dominancy of illiterate
group. Educational status of respondents is represented as follows
Figure 12: Literacy Rate
4.1.3 Occupation Status
The involvement of people both in agriculture and house work were 73.17%. Rest of
the population involved in service sector 4.88% including government and private,
12.2% on business and 9.76% on off-farm business. It shows that, the majority of the
population depends on agriculture as well as job and business is other major options
for them.
Figure 13: Occupation Status of Respondents
62.79%
25.58%
11.63%
Illiterate Literate SLC
73.17%
12.20%
9.76%4.88%
Agriculture Business/Hotel Off-farm Service
36
4.1.4 Landholding Size
In study area all land come under Bari/Pakho category which means unirrigated land.
According to study conducted, 41.46% people have less than 5 ropani, 34.15% has
less than 5-10 ropani land, 12.2% has 11-25 ropani, 7.31% respondents has 25-50
ropani land and 4.88% respondents are landless.
Figure 14: Landholding Status
4.1.5 Major Crops and Crop Calendar
According to the focus group discussion conducted in the study area, maize, wheat,
millet, barley and potato are the major crops planted in Timure VDC. About 20 years
before chili used to be the major crop here but later it was replaced by maize as its
production reduced due to fungus. People of Khaidi village began apple farming in
commercial scale but they got benefit from them only for two years. New disease
caused wilting of apple leaves and production was decreased. The crop plantation
schedule adopted by farmers of in Timure VDC is as follows.
Table 3: Crop Calendar in Timure VDC
(Field survey, 2009)
S. N. Crop Plantation time Reaping time
1 Wheat November May
2. Maize March August
3. Millet August December
4. Potato February July
5. Barley September May
4.88%
41.46%
34.15%
12.20%
7.31%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
Landless Less than 5 Ropani
5-10 Ropani 11-25 Ropani 25-50 Ropani
37
4.1.6 Food Sufficiency
Agriculture production produced in the field of Timure VDC is insufficient for their
livings. About 48.4% respondent said that crop produced in their field is sufficient for
less than 3 months, 35.5% said for 3-6 months, 9.7% said for 7-12 months and 6.5%
people has no production and they have to buy food whole year.
4.1.7 Energy
According to field survey conducted almost population in Timure VDC depends on
fuel wood for cooking purpose and Micro Hydro Power for lighting. Ghatte Khola
Micro Hydro Power generates 115 KW electricity and the entire households in
Timure VDC are benefited from this MHP. Fuel wood is collected from forest of
Langtang National Park. Their dependency in forest for fuel wood and timber for
construction needed for homes is exerting pressure on biodiversity of the Langtang
National Park.
4.2 Climate
The meteorological stations in Rasuwa District are located in Dhunche, Langtang and
Timure. Ward 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of Timure VDC has similar climatic and
topographic condition as Dhunche and ward no. 1 and 9 of Timure VDC has similar
climatic condition like Langtang. For this field observation was conducted.
6.50%
48.40%
35.50%
9.70%
0%0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Buy food Less than 3 3-6month 7-12 month More than 1year
Figure 15: Food sufficiency
38
4.2.1 Temperature
Temperature record from 1989 to 2008 of Dhunche and Langtang stations were used
for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology. For the temperature analysis there was only three years data was
available. As sufficient data is not available it is not used for the analysis.
Annual Mean Temperature of study area is 9.5 °C. Temperature is high in monsoon
season with 17.63°C maximum mean and 11.29°C minimum mean and low in winter
season with 8.84°C maximum mean and -1.22°C minimum mean(See Annex I).
Table 4: Temperature Distribution (°C) in Timure VDC
Temperature
S.
N.
Station
Annual
mean
Annual
max
Annual
min
Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post-
monsoon
Winter
max min max min max min Max min
1. Dhunche 15.47 20.48 10.47 21.67 10.69 24.04 16.00 21.11 7.33 15.09 3.84
2. Langtang 3.52 7.07 -0.03 6.68 -1.17 11.22 6.58 7.79 0.76 2.59 -
6.29
3. Mean 9.50 13.77 5.22 14.17 4.76 17.63 11.29 14.45 4.04 8.84 -1.2
Figure 16: Location of Meteorological Stations
39
Table 5: Temperature Trend ((°C/year))
S.N.
Station Annual Mean
Annual max
Annual min
Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post- Monsoon Winter
max min max min max min max min
1 Dhunche 0.012 0.132 -0.107 0.074 -0.11 0.158 -0.04 0.188 -0.16 0.108 -
0.21
2 Langtang 0.151 0.076 0.227 0.143 0.238 0.13 0.123 0.049 0.192 -0.01 0.35
6
3 Mean 0.0815 0.104 0.06 0.108 0.061 0.14 0.041 0.118 0.016 0.044 0.07
The annual mean temperature of Dhunche station, found to be 15.47ºC with 10.4ºC
minimum and 20.4ºC maximum averages. The trend line has clearly indicated that the
mean annual mean and maximum mean temperature in the station has increasing
trend, 0.012ºC/year and 0.13ºC/year respectively. The minimum mean temperature is
also in decreasing trend of -0.107ºC/year.
The mean annual temperature of Langtang station is found to be 3.519ºC along with
7.066ºC average maximum temperature and -0.028ºC average minimum temperature.
Langtang Station has positive trend of increasing temperature with 0.151ºC/year in
mean annual temperature. There is also increasing trend in maximum and minimum
mean, 0.076 ºC/year and 0.226 ºC/year respectively.
Above data indicates that Mean annual temperature of the study area is in increasing
trend with 0.085°C/year. Trend of temperature increase is high in pre-monsoon season
and low in winter season. It indicates that summer is getting longer and hotter. It has
adverse effect on chilly farming as increased fungus attack lead to decreased
production.
4.2.2 Precipitation
Precipitation record from 1975 to 2007 of Timure, Dhunche and Langtang stations
were used for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology
and Meteorology. The mean annual precipitation in three stations of Rasuwa district is
1159 mm and of the precipitation occurs in June, July and August. In these month
59.25% rainfall occurs. Snowfall occurs in areas located above 1900m altitude during
winter season (See Annex II).
40
Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall
Table 7: Precipitation trend
The annual average precipitation at Dhunche, Langtang and Timure Stations are
1948.42mm, 617.01mm and 911.71mm respectively. All the three stations show the
increasing trend of precipitation. In Dhunche trend is increaseing by 0.79 mm/year, in
Langtang 7.36 mm/year and in Timure 6.611 mm/year.
Figure 17: Annual Average precipitation in Timure VDC
The trend of precipitation is increasing in the monsoon season by 8.65 mm/year and
decreasing in winter by 2.19 mm/year. It shows that water availability is low in winter
which affect local livelihood by drying water sources for drinking water and for
irrigating winter crops. Increasing trend of precipitation indicates that water related
hazards will be high during monsoon season. Study conducted in Langtang region by
Chaulagain in 2006 suggest that number of rainy days are decreasing.
14.31%
59.25%
20.05%
6.39%
Pre-monsoon Monsoon
Post-Monsoon Winter
Rainfall (mm)
S.N. Station Annual mean Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Winter
1 Dhunche 1948 280 1118 407 141
2 Langtang 617 92 400 96 27
3 Timure 911 124 541 192 52
Mean 1159 165 686 232 74
Rainfall Trend (mm/year)
S.N. Station Annual mean Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Winter
1 Dhunche 0.79 -5.46 16.32 -3.71 -6.34
2 Langtang 7.36 3.06 4.61 -0.02 -0.28
3 Timure 6.61 -0.46 5.03 1.99 0.04
4 Mean 4.92 -0.95 8.65 -0.58 -2.19
41
4.3 Water Resource
4.3.1. Impact on Water Availability
Focus group discussion conducted during field survey shows that Ghattekhola,
Gumbaling, Simpani and Chuwalung streams are good sources of drinking water but
they are also drying. In Khaidi Village, people are using only one water source for
drinking water because other water sources dried up. Due to limited water reserve
possibility of contamination of water borne diseases is high during rainy season.
Women have to walk one and half hours to collect drinking water. Due to decreased
rainfall in winter and pre monsoon season water is less available for agricultural
which is the major cause for declining production. People say that good irrigation
facility can boost agriculture production. If drinking water system and irrigation
system is built in Ghatte khola, problem of water scarcity can be solved in Timure
VDC.
4.3.2. Change in Water Runoff/Discharge
Discharge record from 1977 to 2006 of Trisuli River at Betrabati station was used for
the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology. The trend analysis of annual mean discharge is 213.86 m³/sec and the
annual trend of discharge is increasing by 2.667 m³/sec. Discharge in monsoon is
increasing by 7.724 m³/sec and decreasing in winter by -0.144 m³/sec. In monsoon
season 57.96% of total discharge occurs and in winter least discharge occurs that is
6.07% (See Annex III).
Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati Station
Annual
Average
Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-
Monsoon
Winter
Discharge ( m³/s) 213.86 72.86 495.78 234.88 51.91
Discharge Trend 2.667 0.244 7.724 2.846 -0.144
42
4.4. People’s Perception
4.4.1. Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall Pattern
83.72% respondent perceived that temperature is increasing while 13.92%
respondents found that the temperature remains the same as before. About 2.33%
suggests that temperature is decreasing.
Figure 19: People's perception on Temperature
About 61.9% villagers suggest that annual rainfall is decreasing, while according to
15.5% respondents, rainfall is increasing. Yet 13.9% said that rainfall is same as
before while 8.7% perceive that there is untimely rainfall in the area. Generally
people suggested that rainfall in winter season is decreasing while that in monsoon
season is increasing. Respondents whose livelihood is agriculture suggested that
rainfall is decreasing.
83.72%
2.33%13.92%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Increased Decreased Same as before
8.52%
57.96%
27.46%
6.07%
PREMONSOON MONSOON POST MONSOON WINTER
Figure 18: Seasonal Discharge in Percentage
43
Figure 20: People's perception on Precipitation
Most of the respondent (85.37%) said that snowfall is decreasing, 9.76% said that
snowfall is same as before while 4.88% said that there is unusual pattern of snowfall.
People have experienced less days of snowfall. There is less snowfall at the lower part
of Khaidi where snowfall used to occur.
Figure 21: People's Perception on Snowfall
4.4.2. Impact on Agriculture
Due to changing climate farmers in Timure VDC have noticed reduced in agricultural
production. About 60.98% said that production is decreasing, 7.32% said increasing
and 31.71 said that there is no significant change in agricultural production. People in
Khaidi village found that the apple production has significantly decreased.
15.50%
61.90%
13.90%8.70%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
Increased Decreased Same as befor Untimely rainfall
0.00%
85.37%
9.76% 4.88%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Increased Decreased Same as before Untimely
60.98%
7.32%
31.71%
0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%
Production decreasing Production increasing No significant change
Figure 22: Perception on Agricultural Production
44
11.90%
65.85%
17.07%
4.88%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Wild animal Disease/pest Lack of Irrigation I don’t know
85% respondent told that the decrease in agricultural production is due to new
diseases and pest, 11.9% people told that its due to damaged caused by wild animal
which come from Langtang National Park. Wild boar and deer damage standing crop.
New pests have damaged apple and chili farming.
4.4.3 Water Supply
People use piped water (60.98%) for drinking to reduce
time taken for collecting water. 21.95% respondents
have not adopted any measure and 7.32% suggested that
they have not changed their strategies. But 9.76%
respondents from Khaidi village told that they had made
a ditch to collect water from spring during dry season.
About 87.8% people said, they have not taken any
adaptation measure for irrigation while 7.87% said that
they have built canal and 4.88% told that they have
utilized waste water from kitchen for irrigation in
kitchen garden.
Figure 25: Drinking Water Supply
60.98%
9.76%
21.95%
7.32%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Water piping Water ditch No measure adapted I don’t know
Figure 24: Drinking Water at Khaidi
Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production
45
Figure 26: Irrigation Water Supply
4.4.4 People’s Perception on Forest Resource
Respondent said that forest condition was increased (64.5%) during the political
insurgency (Maoist-Government conflict), 6.5% said that it is same as before and 29%
respondent told that forest is decreasing day by day due to demand of fuel wood for
cooking.
About 51.6% respondent said that due to increasing demand of fuel wood, there is
scarcity of fuel wood, 6.5 % respondent said that wildlife from Langtang National
Park damage their crops, 16.1% people told that there is depletion of wildlife in
forest, 12.9% people told that there is increase in invasive species like Eupatorium
adenophorum ―banmara‖, 3.2% people told that there is less availability of fodder for
cattle and 9.7% people said that there is decrease in forest.
7.32%
87.80%
4.88%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Construction of irrigation canal
No measure adapted Use of waste water
29%
6.50%
64.50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Forest is degraded Same as before Forest is dense
Figure 27: Forest Condition
46
Figure 28: Issues of Forest
4.4.5 People’s Perception on Disaster
Landslide is serious natural disaster in Timure VDC which damages agricultural field
and block road and trails. 19.4% respondent said that drought, 3.2% said flood, 6.5%
said soil erosion, 64.5% said landslide and 6.5% said heavy snowfall as a serious
disaster.
Figure 29: Perception on Disaster
Climate induced disaster is causing difficulty in livelihood of local people. 51.6%
respondents said that climatic disaster has impact on agriculture, 32.3% told on
drinking water and 9.7% told on infrastructure and 6.5% respondents told there is no
impact of natural disaster.
6.50%
16.10%
51.60%
12.90%
3.20%
9.70%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Wildlife & Agriculture
Depletion of wild life
Scarcity of fuelwood
Invasive species
Less availability of
fodder
Forest coverage
decreasing
19.40%
3.20%6.50%
64.50%
6.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Drought Flood Soil erosion Landslide Heavy snowfall
47
Figure 30: Impact of Climate Induced Disaster
For preventing agricultural land from climatic disaster local people have adapted
different techniques. 12.9% told they had made retaining wall, 51.7% told they had
made terraces, 32.2% told they follow mixed farming and 3.2% told that they have
not done anything to adapt.
Figure 31: Preventive Measure
Though there is no severe destruction of local livelihood by natural disaster people
have maintained resilience during low agricultural productivity. 32.4% respondents
said that they take support from their neighbor, 22.9% told that they take loan, 11.7%
told that they depend on remittance, 6.72% told that they depend on off-farm
business, 16.58% respondent sells their livestock during extreme condition and 9.7%
acquire support from GOs and NGOs.
32.30%
51.60%
9.70%6.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Drinking water Agriculture Infrastructure No impact
12.90%
3.20%
32.20%
51.70%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Retaining wall No measure taken Mixed farming Terraces
48
Figure 32: Resilience from Extreme Condition
4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters
Because of the varied rainfall nature of Nepal, agriculture is always vulnerable to
unfavorable weather events and climatic conditions. Despite technological advances
such as improved crop, weather and climate related uncertainties are still key factors
in determining agricultural productivity. Since climate varies over space and time, its
effect on agriculture varies accordingly. Spatial pattern is likely to change due to
climate change. By mapping these distributions, it is possible to provide place-
specific information for policy makers concerning altered levels of resource
availability due to climate change.
5.5.1. Temperature Change:
It has observed that cold areas are decreasing. In 1990 area having average
temperature more than 13.5°C (i.e. average annual temperature) was 46.008 sq km in
Timure VDC. But in 2007 it was increased to 69.24 sq km. Hotter areas (>13.5°C) are
32.40%
22.90%
11.70%
6.72%
16.58%
9.70%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Support from Neighbour
Loan Remittance Off-farm Selling livestock
Support from GOs & NGOs
Figure 33: Change in Temperature
49
increasing by 1.5 times.
Increasing temperature and increase in hotter area in Timure signifies that the present
climate is not much favorable to bring desired production unless their cropping
pattern is changed. But change in temperature helped people to plant new crops like
seasonal vegetables etc.
4.5.2. Precipitation:
Timure VDC gets more rain in pre and post monsoon season compared to surrounding
areas. Interpolated map shows that average rainfall increased in 2007 (971.47-
1,067.21mm) near Khaidi area in compared to 1990 (815.20-950.57mm). Near
cultivated area, the rainfall is high in monsoon season which is 541.41 to 610.71mm
but it is less that other areas. Less rainfall occur on winter season that is 51.39-59.21
mm in cultivated area (See Annex V). In past there were only 4.76 sq.km area which
gets high rainfall (more than 1000mm) but now there are 67. 32sq.km of total area
gets high rainfall. It is clear rainfall is increasing by 14 times.
4.5.3. Change in Cultivated Land
According to LRMP 1986, In Timure VDC, there was 364.16 hectare cultivated area
which includes 184.86 hectare foot hills/tar and 179.3 hectare slope cultivation.
Topographic base map prepared by Survey Department 1993 shows that in Timure
VDC there was 260.77 hectare cultivated land. ALSO (Advanced Land Observing
Satellite) AVNIR 2 10m resolution imagery of October, 2008 of Rasuwa district
shows that there is 166.27 hectare cultivated land which includes 66.59 hectare foot
hills/tar and 99.51 hectare slope (See Annex VI).
Figure 34: Change in Precipitation
50
Above data clearly shows that cultivation land is decreasing. In between 1986-1993, it
decreased by 103.39 ha; in 1993-2008 it is decreased by 94.5 ha and in average 98.9
ha per decade. Climate change is one of the major causes for decreasing agricultural
land in Timure. Land degradation, crop damage and failure, soil erosion, wildfire,
insect and disease outbreak are some of impacts of climate change that caused
declining agricultural practice and production. This decline in agriculture production
with other socio-economic factors such as migration caused change in agriculture
land.
Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC
51
Chapter V
DISCUSSION
All the information which is obtained from the field observation, questionnaire
survey, key informant survey, GIS analysis and literature review are presented in
discussion chapter.
5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation
In Timure VDC, temperature is increasing by 0.081 °C/year. Increase in temperature
will affect water balance of natural system as water demand increases system will be
unable to meet the demand. Decreased water availability also has adverse effects on
agricultural production. The subsistence farmers of Timure VDC who depend upon
rain fed agriculture will face severe problems including possible famine because of
decreased agricultural production.
The average annual rainfall in Timure VDC is increasing by 4.92 mm/year. Increase
in rainfall in monsoon season by 8.65mm/year and decreased rainfall in pre monsoon,
post monsoon and winter by -0.95, -0.58 and -2.19 mm/year shows that monsoon
rainfall are going to be more erratic. Increasing number of events of intense
precipitation in monsoon i.e. a changing precipitation pattern would increase the
likelihoods of floods, landslides and droughts.
5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change
Land use, particularly agriculture, is largely determined by climatic factors, like
rainfall amounts, timing and reliability, while at the local scale soil and landscape
features are important. In Timure agricultural land has decreased by 30.43% from
1986-1993 and by 33.75% in between 1993-2008.
The major driver for decreasing agricultural land is due to less productivity of land.
After restoration of democracy in Nepal people got mobility. Their sources of income
become more diverse. Their dependency on subsistence agriculture which has low
economic benefit shifted to off-farm business like overseas employment, pottering
and service sectors. Change in climate also played another role in decreasing
52
agricultural activities as frequency of extreme climatic event like landslide and
drought increased.
5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events
5.3.1 Mountain Agriculture
Figure 36: Sloping Agricultural Land at Khaidi Village
Untimely rainfall and drying of water sources decrease agricultural production.
Increasing temperature trend obtained from observation and that felt by the
community matches. People have stopped planting chili for which Timure was
famous. About 50% crop failure occurred due to wilting of chili due to fungus.
Frequency of occurrence of fungus is high due to increase in temperature. Apple
production is decreasing as rainfall is untimely and temperature increasing in Khaidi
village. Apple tree are affected by the disease which causes wilting of leaves.
People are shifting their traditional farming practice into business, employment
outside Nepal and off-farm business due to insecurity in agricultural and less
availability of pasture land for livestock grazing. About 20-24 households of Khaidi
village have shifted to Timure village for new income opportunities.
Major impact on agriculture due to climate change can be summarized as follows
i. Increase incidence of disease and pest:
- Chilly susceptible to fungus, people shift to maize
53
- Apple farming in Khaidi village affected due to fungus which cause
wilting of leaves
ii. Landslide affected agriculture land of Khaidi
iii. Intense rainfall removes soil nutrient of slope land: production lowered (wheat
and barley)
iv. Quality of potato decreasing
5.3.2 Biodiversity
Detail information on biodiversity was difficult to obtain since it needs long
observation such as variation in species availability, density and distribution. It is
difficult to draw conclusion on how forestry and biodiversity have been affected by
climate variability. Firewood consumption for cooking and heating has increased
pressure on forest resource. Weed species like Eupatorium adenophorum ―banmara‖
has spread widely posing threat to existing tree species.
5.3.3 Landslide
In rainy season, landslide affects water sources which
have impact on drinking. Huge landslide at Charchum
blocks road in monsoon season. In rainy days, landslide
frequently damages agricultural field of Khaidi and
affects about 20-24 households.
No effective measures are used to control land slide but
some villagers made retaining wall to control it but it is
not so effective. People here have low income and cannot
afford high cost and their local attempt to control
landslide is limited.
5.4 Adaptation Strategy
People of Timure have adopted strategies to reduce the risk associated with climate
variability and changes. Different strategies for water and agriculture production are
being used. They have used various strategies to survive in a variable environment
throughout history. In the rapidly changing economic, social, and environmental
contexts, only innovative and sustainable adaptation strategies can ensure a secure
lifestyle.
Figure 37: Landslide at Timure
54
5.4.1 Agriculture
People have adapted different strategies to minimize environmental risk and ensure
food security. The main concern for construction of level terraces on steep hill slopes
is to reduce
erosion on one hand and obtain benefits of irrigation. People have made terraces in
hill slope. Another strategy adopted by the
villagers is choice of crops. Maize, millet, wheat,
barley and potato are grown in unirrigated lands.
Native varieties are resistant to local climatic
deviation and ensure food even though is low.
Imported improved varieties though have high
production potential but are less resistant to
climatic stresses such as windstorm, hail and rain.
Farmers in Timure VDC use both improved and
local varieties of maize. Intercropping of different
varieties of crop having different growing period is
also practiced. Grains are stored in
"Bhakari"(system of food grain storage) for deficit
month and "Sahayog" (provision of free labour) for
crisis management. Diversification of income through crops, livestock, wage from
construction work, porterage is strategies used to minimize risks. In recent days,
remittance is used for crisis management.
Livestock is an important source of income of the people living in the hills generally.
It is also an important source for manure of plant nutrient. However, the growth of
livestock farming depends on the availability of fodder from pasture/grazing land.
During winter it is almost impossible to graze animals in highland pasture due to
severe cold and snow. Traditionally, people travel to lower regions for grazing in
winter and use subtropical forest and grassland (e.g. Lende Khola watershed). They
take their livestock to alpine pasture (e.g. Bhrangkhark) in the summer. They follow
fixed calendar of use, specific areas are for specific animals.
Figure 38: Bhakari for Grain Storage
55
5.4.2 Biodiversity
There is no specific strategy to reduce impact on biodiversity. Langtang National Park
is aimed at protecting forest and biodiversity with the help of local people. Anti-
poaching committee has been formed to regulate hunting. Similarly, buffer zone
community is also mobilized to preserve biodiversity from community level.
5.4.3 Water Resource
Local people use different stretegies
to meet their water needs. In Timure
village taping of water started in
1986 B.S. from Gumbaling stream. A
3,500 liters tank was built to store
water to serve 70 households. The
District Development Committee
(DDC) provides annual budget for its
maintenance.
In Khaidi, villagers have made a
small ditch near the village to collect water from a spring to supply drinking water.
Though drinking water project in Khaidi was started during Panchayat era (1986.), it
is not in use today because of weak social institution and poor maintenance. Due to
drying up of this drinking water source, people have started implementing new
drinking water and irrigation projects. This project is supported by Unity Service
Cooperation (USC) Nepal.
Figure 39: Ghatte Khola
56
Chapter VI
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
6.1 Conclusion
Timure is a typical rural Tamang VDC inhabited by community whose major source
of income is agriculture. Although agriculture is the main source of income, it is not
sufficient to feed their family throughout the year because of less agriculture land and
less crop production. Poor economic condition and low human development in terms
of education, health and other physical infrastructure is characteristics social feature
of the VDC.
The analysis of past temperature records suggests a clear warming trend. The
maximum temperatures were increasing more rapidly (0.104°C/year) than the
minimum temperatures (0.06°C/year) indicating a widening range. The analysis of
precipitation data however did not show increasing or decreasing trend regarding
different seasons but the amount of annual rainfall showed increasing trend
(4.92mm/year). GIS analysis of landuse change clearly indicates there is shift and
decrease in agriculture land area. These in turn are triggered by climate change and
socioeconomic changes. People suggest that rainfall is untimely and that temperature
has increased. Due to this change there is increasing pest and disease infestation on
crops, reduction in fruit quality, nutrient loss from soil and land degradation. All this
help reduce agriculture production. At the same time, people are changing their
traditional occupation. They search new alternatives such as off farm business and
employment outside Nepal which are less risky than agriculture to diversify their
livelihood.
People have pursued different strategies to reduce vulnerabilities from climate related
disaster. These strategies include selection of sites for housing and cultivation in
sunny slope, intercropping, bio-engineering measures such as terracing, change in
crop calendar, migration and diversification of income. However, the traditional
social safety net of risk avoidance has been weakening. Policy driven or planned
adaptation strategies along with autonomous options need to enable people to address
negative impact of climate change. To that end high priority should be accorded to
building drinking water system, irrigation infrastructure, improving the quality of soil.
57
Other options include improving availability of fertilizer and improved seeds. In
general, climate change should be considered in long-term planning horizon to
maximize adaptive capacity.
6.2 Recommendation
The recommendation is made based on the analysis of hydro-meteorological data
available from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Survey,
Central Bureau of Statistics and social-economic data generated from the field study.
There is need for more analytical research on relation of food security with agriculture
production, forestry and water system as a consequence of changes in climate. The
possible adaptation options for minimizing the magnitude of damage by climate
change should be assessed through studies and participatory assessments. Possible
research themes are as follows.
Assessment on impact of climate change on specific crop
Assessment on effect of increase carbon dioxide in atmosphere and effect on
crop productivity in mountain
Understand relation between climatic parameters, shift and trend of cultivated
land
Increase density of meteorological stations in mountains region
Preparation of planned adaptation options are required in Timure VDC
Climate change has complex impact on agriculture system and existing
socioeconomic context of Nepal make them more complex. Assessing impact is
complex because of the uncertainties and assumptions that needs to be taken. There
must be rigorous study on impact due to climate change in rainfall pattern or drought,
despite same amount of rainfall. Such analysis is important for building confidence in
determining the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food
security.
58
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63
ANNEX
ANNEX I: Change in Temperature A. Dhunche
64
65
B. Langtang
66
67
ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation
A. Dhunche
68
B. Langtang
69
C. Timure
70
71
ANNEX III: Change in Discharge
72
ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature
73
ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation
74
ANNEX VI: Land use Change
75
ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land
76
77
ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change
Name of Data Collector:
Date:
A. Household Information
Respondent Name : ........................................................
Caste/Ethnic Group : ........................................................
Sex : ........................................................
Age : ........................................................ Education : ........................................................
Occupation : ........................................................
Current Address (VDC/Ward) : .........................................................
Family size:
Family size Below 10 year 11-45 years 45 and above
Sex Male Female Male Female Male female
Number
Education
1 Income Source of family (Rank them):
Agriculture Business Tourism Remittance Hotel Service Other
2. Do you own agricultural land?
Yes No
If yes how much land do you own for agricultural practices?
……………………………
3. Is your agricultural production sufficient to raise your family throughout the year?
Yes No
If yes, your agricultural production is enough for:
A)less than 3 months b) 3-6months c) 7-11 month
4. How do you manage for rest of the time?
Go outside for employment/porter
Aboard employment Domestic Animal selling
Loan from neighbor Business other
B. Information on Climate Change (Precipitation, temperature, and hydrological event)
5. Have you experienced any changes in rainfall pattern over the last 10-20 years or so?
Yes No I don’t know
If yes, what kind of change?
Rainfall has increased Rainfall has decreased
6. Have you noticed following changes in rainfall pattern?
Longer period for rainy
seasons
Shorter period & low rainfall Heavy rainfall at once
Unusual & untimely
rainfall
Delayed summer monsoon
start
Decreased winter
monsoon
Long drought Increase in hailstorm &
windstorm
Others
7. Have you noticed any significant change in snowfall pattern?
Yes No
78
If yes,
Increase in snowfall during winter Decrease in snowfall during winter
Unusual and untimely snow
falling
Others
8. Temperature is gradually increasing day by day.
Yes No
What is your personal experience regarding temperature change over past 10-20 years or so?
Extreme cold during
winter seasons
Days are becoming hotter
during summer
No significant
changes
Extreme hot days Winter are less cold and
frosty
Others
9. What are the consequences of warmer winters/longer drought?
Older and children find their villages more
conformable live in winter
Housing construction has changed
due to less cold
Tourism business are more profitable due to
longer drought period in the post monsoon
months
Others
10. Have you noticed any significant changes in wind pattern?
Yes No
If yes,
Strong wind blowing has increased Strong wind blowing has decreased
Cold wind blowing has increased Cold wind blowing has decreased
Others
C. Impact and adaptation to agriculture
11. What are the major crops/vegetables/fruits and its production
Crop Type Cultivation Month Production
now before now before
Food
Crops
Pulses
Cash
Crop
Vegetables
Oil Seeds
Others(specify)
79
12. What are the major livestock and holding?
Animal Number
13. Have you noticed change in agricultural production over past 10-20 years or so?
Yes No
If yes, what kind of change you have noticed in agricultural production?
Production has increased Production has decreased
14. Have you noticed change in agriculture in agricultural production?
Yes No
If yes,
Crops
now Before
15. Do you feel that warmer days have any significant effect on crops/fruits/vegetables growing?
Bigger and testy food product Quality of food product decrease
Take more time to grow Take short time to grow plant
16. What are the possible causes for changing the crops?
Decrease in production of former crops New diseases and pest
Lack of irrigation Price of seed raised
17. In your opinion what are the possible causes for decrease in agricultural production?
Extreme weather condition Drought condition
Soil erosion Landslide
Diseases and pest Less availability of chemical fertilizer
18. IS there any government and non-governmental organizations working for the agriculture
improvement program?
Yes No
Detail
Name Working field
D. Water Resources:
19. What are the major source of water for drinking/Irrigation and other purpose?
River or streams Spring
Pond Rainwater
Snows Other
20. Generally how much time you spent for fetching drinking water?
Less than 15 min 30 min
1-3 hours More than 3 hours
80
21. Have you noticed changes in water availability and quantity in water sources in the past and
present?
Yes No
If yes, causes of water scarcity:
Drying up springs/pond/river Drought
Low rainfall Abnormal rainfall/snowfall
22. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for drinking purpose?
Rain water harvesting Water piping from distant water source
Forestation Others(specify)
23. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for irrigation purpose?
Rain water collection Construction of irrigation cannel
Using waste water Others(specify)
E. Forest and Biodiversity
24. The condition of nearby forest resource has:
Forest is dense and wild animal has
increased
Forest is dense but decrease in wild
species
Condition of forest is same as before Forest is degraded and decrease in
wild species
25. What are the major issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity
Forest Coverage is decreasing Less availability of fodder
Scarcity of fuel wood Depletion of animals and birds
Others(specify)
26. What are the major measures taken to solve the issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity?
CFU group take care of forest Plantation and preserve forest
NTFPs Renewable energy resources
Others (specify)
F. Natural Disaster
27. What are the most significant climate related disasters in your community?
Landslide Flood Drought Soil Erosion Heavy Snowfall Hailstorm Other
28. What do you think the major causes of land slide and flood?
Abnormal rainfall Heavy rainfall
Deforestation GLOF event
Forest encroachment Others
29. What is the trend for occurrence of climate related natural disasters?
Increased Decreased I don’t Know
30. Which Natural Disaster has affected your community the most?
………………………………………….
31. What is the adverse impact caused by natural disasters in your family and community?
Infrastructure loss Agriculture land
Drinking water source Irrigation cannel
Forest and wild animal Other
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32. What are the losses caused by natural disasters to your family and community over past 10 years?
Losses in Detail
Agriculture land
Agriculture production
Infrastructure
Human life
Loss of animal
33. Did people in your community migrated to other place due to natural disaster?
Yes No
If yes where,
………………………………………………….
34. What helped you to recover the losses?
Support from neighbor Remittance sent by family member
By selling ornament Business
Loan Migration
Support from GOs and NGOs Self Help Group
Other(Specify)
35. What are the measures taken by community to overcome natural disaster?
Forestation Conservation of forest
Bio-engineering Embankment
Other(specify)
36. Is there any network for communicating the news/warning of natural disaster?
Yes No
If yes what type of communication
…………………………………………………..
37. What will be the serious issues for your community in coming days?
Landslide & flooding by GLOF Depletion of forest
Soil Erosion and loss in agriculture land Water scarcity
Decreased agriculture production Migration
Other(Specify)