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Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans:

Footprints to Adaptation in Fisheries Food Production and Security

Maria Gasalla (University of São Paulo, Brazil)

with the support of Manuel Barange (FAO, Rome)

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Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans

3rd International SymposiumMarch 23-27, 2015

Santos, Brazil bring together experts from different disciplines to exchange observations,

results, models and ideas on the impacts of climate change on the world’s oceans

two previous symposia each attracted over 400 scientists from over 45 countries, making the effort truly global in scale

combine paper Sessions and Workshops to provide a forum for topics on a global-scale and with regional comparisons

IPCC AR4 - 2007IPCC AR5 - 2014

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Santos 2015 – the data: Who & Where

AfricaAmericaAsiaEuropeOceania

Total numbers of participants284

57 %43 %

1Argentina

24Australia

2Bangladesh

1Belgium

52Brazil

1Cambodia

17Canada

5Chile

14China

5Denmark

1Estonia

2Faroe Islands

16France

11Germany

6India

2Hungary

2Italy

5Japan

1Korea

4Mexico

1Monaco

1Netherlands

2New Zealand

6Norway

2Philippines

3Poland

13Portugal

4Russia

3South Africa

1Spain

4Sweden

1Switzerland

1Thailand

1Togo

44USA

2UAE

22UK

1Uruguay

17GP

40S2

15S3

15S4

3 S5 19S6

9S7

49S8

12S9

30S10

11S12

12S12

1. Role of advection and mixing in ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems.

2. Ocean acidification.3. Changing ocean chemistry: From trace elements and isotopes to radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern.4. Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: Methods, uncertainties and challenges. 5. Coastal blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks.6. Climate change in the seasonal domain: Impacts on the phenology of marine ecosystems and their consequences.7. Evolutionary response of marine organisms to climate change .8. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and resilience.9. Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying capacity via food-web spatial relocations.10. Forecasting climate change impacts on fish populations and fisheries. 11. Impacts on coastal communities.12. Linking climate change to marine management objectives.

Sessions and Workshops

Theme Sessions

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Sessions and Workshops

1. Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine ecosystems

1. and 6. Joint Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research and Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Workshop: Biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere.

3. Effects of climate change on the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps.

4. Upwelling systems under future climate change.

5. Moving towards climate-ready fishery systems.

6. Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries.

Workshops

Keywords in titles

1. Adaptation: 16 (Australia, US, Europe, Bangladesh)

2. Fisheries: 32 (US, Australia, UK, Canada, India, South Africa)

3. Aquaculture: 0

Workshops

Gender: 1

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Session 2209 - Transformative pathways to sustain marine ecosystems and their services

under climate change

Convenors: • Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)• Luis Valdes (UNESCO – IOC, France)

1. M. Barange – State of the art in oceans and climate change research: Synthesis of the 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans.

2. W.W.L. Cheung – Improving climate-resilience in fisheries through rebuilding fish stocks in an uncertain future

3. S.-I. Ito – Challenges and advances in climate projection methodology and their use in projecting oceans futures

4. Y. Ota – Socio-governance considerations and the impact of climate change on oceans and fisheries

5. P. Lehodey – Forecasting climate change impacts on tuna populations and fisheries

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Warming over the 21st century

1901-2012

End of 21st century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

Multi-model median of year when climate change trend exceeds the range of natural variability for a) sea surface temperature, b) pH, c) interior oxygen content and d) PP for RCP8.5. White areas: ecosystem stress does not emerge for that parameter by 2100. Note the different colour scales for pH and SST.

Courtesy Stephanie Henson, UK (S8)

Speed of impact depends on stressor of interest

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Courtesy Andrew Yool, UK (S8)

- nutrient underestimates in low-medium latitudes / nutrient overestimates in high latits.- Chl underestimates everywhere.

SST

Chl

Courtesy Julien Palmiéri, UK (S1)

The importance of resolution

~100km~7km ~20km

Model resolution matters, more in some regions

Courtesy Paulo Calil (S1)

And mesoscale processes

% NPP Change (-3.6%) % MESOZP Change (-7.9%)

Courtesy Charlie Stock, USA (S4)

• GFDL’s ESM2M-COBALT Earth System Model, 2050-2099 vs 1950-2000

• MESOZP change amplifies NPP signal. Is this real?• Causes: NPP change, zooplankton growth

efficiency, and the zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling)

LoRes models still useful to generate hypotheses

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Courtesy Malin Pinsky, USA (S8)

NE USA SST

Courtesy Martin Marzloff, Aus (S8)

Between 25-85% of animals monitored are shifting where they live

Distribution changes: I. Generic poleward shifts

CorridorsDivergenceConvergence

Non-movingSlow-movingSources

Sinks

Coastal SinksInternal Sinks

Courtesy Mike Burrows, UK (S6)

RCP8.5

LOSS

GAI

N 2040 2065

Courtesy Elvira Poloczanska (S10)

Distribution changes: II. Heterogeneity prevails

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Courtesy Emily Howells, UAE (S7)

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30

31

32

33

34

35

36

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CaribbeanGBR

Arabian Gulf corals already tolerate projected end-of-century temperatures for other regions Image: E.Smith

26°C 34°C

Arabian/Persian Gulf

Abu DhabiSummer Max ~36°C

FujairahSummer Max ~33°C

Exposure Time (days)

Surv

ival

(%, m

ean

±SE

)27°C

Exposure Time (days)

Surv

ival

(%, m

ean

±SE

)33°C

Exposure Time (days)

Surv

ival

(%, m

ean

±SE

)36°C

51%

I. Coral adults- Survival

II. Coral Adults - SymbiontPhotosynthetic Function

Exposure Time (days)

Phot

oche

mic

al Y

ield

(% o

f pre

-he

atin

g)

27°C

Exposure Time (days)

Phot

oche

mic

al Y

ield

(% o

f pre

-he

atin

g)

33°C

Exposure Time (days)

Phot

oche

mic

al Y

ield

(% o

f pre

-he

atin

g)

36°C161%

Distribution changes: III. Habitats do not move

Trends in Bloom Initiation Dates

Before

During

After

Courtesy Rebecca Asch, USA (S6)

Phenological changes: I. match/ mismatch

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Courtesy Shin-ichi Ito, Japan (S4)

Control-RUN CO2-RUN

Both species migrate NE in response to warming. Pacific sardine size at age remains the same, because it can utilise more the subarctic region as a feeding ground. Pacific saury has already exploited the subarctic region for feeding ground and thus size at age may decrease as a result.

GCMNEMURO-

BGMGrowth Model Migration

ModelReproduction Model

Phenological changes: II. Impacts depend on life history

Cor

rela

tion

coef

ficie

nt

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Month

JUL-prev

AUG

-prevSEP-prevO

CT-prev

NO

V-prevD

EC-prev

JANFEBM

ARAPRM

AYJU

NJU

LAU

GSEPO

CT

NO

VD

EC

* p < 0.01*

Month

JUL-prev

AUG

-prevSEP-prevO

CT-prev

NO

V-prevD

EC-prev

JANFEBM

ARAPRM

AYJU

NJU

LAU

GSEPO

CT

NO

VD

EC

Cor

rela

tion

coef

ficie

nt

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6 * p < 0.01 *

Courtesy William J. Sydeman, USA (W4)

Winter (before the main upwelling season) and summer (primary upwelling period) alongshore winds influenced higher trophic species differently. These complex phenological responses of the marine ecosystem to climatic forcing indicate challenges for understanding, simulating and predicting climate change impacts.

Upwelling systems: the big unknowns

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higher energy demand

shallow burrowing higher oxygen consumption

(respiration rate)

use of energetic reserves (lipids)

slower shell growth (less energy allocated to

growth)

higher mortality

Courtesy Adam Sokołowski, Poland (S2)

CO2

pHconroller

Flow restrictor(60 ml min. )-1

pH and tempsensor

air

Water pumpfor internal circulation

Cooling system(T=10.5°C)

Phytoplanktonic food(Brightwell Aquatics)8310 cells cm day-3 -1

water outflow

ARTIFICIALSEAWATER(S=7.0)

High CO2induces stress →

compensatory reactions →

Ocean Acidification: I. Confirmations

Macoma balthicadi

ssol

ved

oxyg

en (m

g/L)

02468

1012

time of day

pH

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Oxygen and pH daily cycles

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

0 5 10 15

pH

DO (mg/L)

• Almost all mobile species tested behaviorally avoid low dissolved oxygen. Co-occurring hypoxia may therefore reduce exposure to respiration-driven acidification

• Individual stressors can either exacerbate or reduce effects of other stressors

• Simultaneous exposure to low pH made fish more sensitive to low oxygen

Courtesy Denise Breitburg, USA (S2)

Ocean Acidification: II. Deviations

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C-high+2°C

440 μatm pCO2

-0.3 pH+2°C

1000 μatm pCO2

-0.5 pH+2°C

1500 μatm pCO2

Key

C < low pHInitial stress response

Acclimation takes at least 8 mo

Courtesy Coleen Suckling, UK (S8)

Acclimation

Short-term regulated responses

Irreversible response experienced during ontogeny. Influences later life stages

Environment experienced by parents influences offsprings’ responses

Courtesy Philip Munday, Aus (S7)

Ocean Acidification: III. Acclimations

-0.5 pH+2°C

1500 μatm pCO2

28.5°C 31.5°C30.0°C

Current & projected household income impact in

the Arctic countries

Current status (2000s) Total income impact increase by 38%

Job increase by 20,000

Total income impact increase by 32%

Job increase by 17,000

Current income impact =USD 1,523 million

212,000 jobs

Courtesy Vicky Lam, Canada (S10)

CC and resource economics: I. winners/losers

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CC and economics: II. dependency determines impacts

JOBS

TRADE

FOOD

Courtesy Manuel Barange, UK (W5)

+++

–––––

++v

+++

–

Climate change

Tropical cyclones

Sea-level rise & SST

Salt water

intrusion

Rainfall Flood & Drought

Coastal aquaculture

Prawn yield

Export earnings

Livelihoods of poor

Economic growth

Household Income

Poverty and vulnerability

• Reduce food consumption

• Loans from kin

• Sell non-productive assets

• Pledge productive assets

• Sell productive assets

• Migration?

Time of exposure to stress

Courtesy Nesar Ahmed, Bangladesh/ Germany (S11)

CC impacts cascades through society

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Courtesy Jake Rice, Canada (S12)

• We can explain the need for change.• We can characterize the types of things that are expected to happen, but we cannot

answer questions about exactly what will change by how much and when.• We should be looking to support policies of transition and adaptive response, not new

configurations for some set of future conditions• Precaution is managing risk, not avoiding it

Our World Opportunity Space Possible Futures

CC management is about managing risk

Courtesy Everyone (W1-6, S1-12)

“non-threatening images that relate to every-day emotions and concerns tend to be the most engaging” (Eddie Allison S11)

The importance of communicating climate change

?

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1. Role of advection and mixing in ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems.

2. Ocean acidification.3. Changing ocean chemistry: From trace elements and isotopes to radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern.4. Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: Methods, uncertainties and challenges. 5. Coastal blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks.6. Climate change in the seasonal domain: Impacts on the phenology of marine ecosystems and their consequences.7. Evolutionary response of marine organisms to climate change .8. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and resilience.9. Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying capacity via food-web spatial relocations.10. Forecasting climate change impacts on fish populations and fisheries. 11. Impacts on coastal communities.12. Linking climate change to marine management objectives.

Theme sessions directly relevant to FishAdapt

Theme Sessions

acidification

carbon sinks prediction models

phenology

forecasting impacts

managament objectives

1. Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine ecosystems

1. and 6. Joint Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research and Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Workshop: Biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere.

3. Effects of climate change on the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps.

4. Upwelling systems under future climate change.

5. Moving towards climate-ready fishery systems.

6. Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries.

Workshops

Theme WS directly relevant to FishAdapt

prediction models

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Personal selection and comments on:

1) Moving towards climate-ready fishery systems: Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries

2) Impacts on coastal communities

Personal selection and comments on:

WS Regional comparisons of climateadaptation in marine fisheries

More focus on well-developed countries:Australia (gov/ind scientist + university), US (govagencies + universities), UK (gov. scientists), Except France/W Pacific (modelling, private sector scientists)

Which countries are really moving towards climate-ready fishery systems?

More focused in top-down approaches (government-science-users)

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Lessons learnt from CC adaptation to fisheries in developed nations

Australia: anticipatory planning, early-observations, seasonal forecasts distribution(Hobday et al), supply chains modelling (Plaganyiet al), input/output controls part of adaptation(Fruscher et al)

Technical support & conservation measures

Hobday et al, AUS

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Adaptation in developed nations (cont’)

US: Fisheries Management, Harvest ControlRules, Risk Management (Kennedy et al), Adaptation behaviour (Pinsky et al)

More focus on current fisheries management (

Still to incorporate CC in mgmt councils

Griffis et al, US

US

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Pinsky et al, US

Pinnegar et al, UK

UK

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From: Pinnegar et al, UKUK

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Tuna in Western Pacific (Lehodey et al, France and SPC) Modelling/projections

Impact by shifting habitat east and polewards –towards international waters

RFMO: - control F(but still increasing outside the area, where controlis more difficult)

- CC impacts with decadal F scenarios

Barange et al, UK

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Personal selection and comments on:

- Impacts on coastal communities

(More developing countries-oriented session)

Ahmed et al, Banglades

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Howard et al, multilateral proposal

Solomon Islands

GULLS Project/BELMONT FORUM

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From: Howard et al

Gaps and much-needed research(to FishAdapt, personal view)

- Adaptation that goes beyond conservation strategies, adaptationplans mostly responsive to conservation plans)

- More ground experiences (from the sector: what factors are importantto CC adaptation?

- Understand people’s behaviour, beliefs, and perceptions of CC

- From impacts to adaptation:: vulnerability extremely important, buthow would be the plans to reduce vulnerabilities at the differentscales?

- Resilience components and non-linear relationships

- Aquaculture and fisheries as part of marine sciences! (differentcommunities of scientists)

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General conclusions

- Oceans are important climate integrators (role in CO2 absorption, atmospheric heat accumulatino, continental waters recipient).- The cost is: ocean acidification, ocean warming, deoxygenation, sea level rise, etc- Changes pose serious questions on varios human-related dimensions including food secury- Changes in the ocean due to climate change are a urge matter for SDGs.- However, Fisheries and Aquaculture (F&A) sector should benefit from (are part of) marine sciences although it remains secondary in the Climate/Oceanography community (ICES/PICES/IOC).- There are still several gaps in adaptation research to F&A.- And there are opportunities for new technologies and social

I thank ICES/PICES/IOC/IOUSP for the opportunity to overview and comment on F&A adaptation

IPCC AR6

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Thank you for your attention

FishAdapt, NACA, and University of São Paulo’s Research Dean Office that contributed with travel support