egec market report update online

E G E CEGEC MARKET REPORT 2013/2014 UPDATE

Fourth Edition, December 2014

EGEC Market Report Update 2014

1

Fourth Edition,December 2014

Editors:Luca Angelino (EGEC)Philippe Dumas (EGEC)Alexandra Latham (EGEC)

CopyrightsEuropean Geothermal Energy Council - EGECPhoto credits: EGEC, Turboden (cover page), Attila KujbusCopyright information: All rights reserved. No part of this publication shall be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without written permission from the publisher.

AcknowledgementsEGEC wishes to sincerely thank all those who submitted data and contributed to the collectionof information (in alphabetical order):

Ruggero Bertani (ENEL Green Power); Carlos Alberto Bicudo da Ponte (EDA Renovaveis, Portugal); Christian Boissavy (AFPG, France); David Charlet (IDEA, Belgium); Margarita de Gregorio (APPA; Spain); Maite Dufrasne (IDEA, Belgium); Victor van Heekeren (Stichting Platform Geothermie, Netherlands); Matus Gajdos (AGEO, Slovakia); Hana Jirakova (Geomedia, Czech Republic); Tevfik Kaya (Schlumberger, Turkey); Beata Kpiska (Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland); Andreij Kitanovski (University of Ljubljana, Slovenia); Attila Kujbus (GeoEx, Hungary); Ben Laenen (VITO, Belgium); Ryan Law (Geothermal Engineering Ltd, UK); Sren Berg Lorenzen (Danish Geothermal District Heating, Denmark); Johanna Lutz (Forever Green (Germany); Dimitrios Mendrinos (CRES, Greece); Orhan Mertoglu (Orme Jeotermal, Turkey); Thor-Erik Musaeus (Rock Energy, Norway); Riccardo Pasquali (GeoServ Solutions, Ireland, UK); Joachim Poppei (Swiss Geothermal Association SGA, Switzerland); Burkhard Sanner (UBeG, Germany); Cristina Terchila (SIFEE NEW ENERGY, Romania) ; Loredana Torsello (CoSviG) gsta r orbergsdttir (YR Consulting, Iceland); Feliksas Zinevicius (Lithuanian Geothermal Association, Lithuania)

The soleresponsibilityfor the content of this document, however,lies with the editors.

ContentsIntroduction 2

Analysis of Geothermal Electricity market in Europe 5

Analysis of Geothermal District heating market in Europe 13

Analysis of Shallow Geothermal market in Europe 17

Introduction


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Introduction

Introduction to the EGEC Market Report 2013/2014 - update

This 4th edition of the EGEC geothermal market report gives a snapshot of the situation at the end of the year 2014. It is only an update of the version 2013/2014 published in December 2014, as a full new version will be released in 2015 integrating data from the World Geothermal Congress 2015 in Melbourne (Australia). This update is for the first time partially available for free on an electronic format. Updated tables presenting details of geothermal power and District Heatin (DH) projects are only available for EGEC members.

The EGEC Market Report 2013/2014 published in December 2013 presents a full analysis of the current market, and makes some forecast for the development in 2015 and beyond, also stating the measures necessary to achieve the European objectives for renewable energy in 2020.

Comparing the forecast in the first market report in 2011 with the reality today at the end of 2014 gives a mixed picture. Then we announced resurgence in deep geothermal; when we look at the current situation we see that:

the sector is on track for geothermal district heating the situation for geothermal electricity has also developed quite well, with preparation times being longer

than expected for shallow geothermal, the development is not satisfactory at all, with several factors hindering the

desired growth, as is discussed in the relevant chapter in this report.

We urgently need a stable political and regulatory framework to achieve the targets for 2020, 2030 and beyond!

For 2020, we need:

more and dedicated support schemes for geothermal in nearly all member States the establishment of an EU geological risk insurance scheme (like the proposed EGRIF) the removal of (mainly non-technological) barriers, in particular for shallow geothermal energy more competitiveness with fossil fuels (gas) in the heating sector a strategy to switch from fossil fuels to renewables in order to improve security of supply.

For 2030, we need:

a governance approach with ambitious measures at national level, as drillers, developers, and equipment manufacturers need security for investment

a market design with more flexible renewable power generation a competitive and fair playing field for heating and cooling, considering both fossil fuels and an unlimited

(and unjustified) strategy to electrify the heating market. Geothermal heat and cold becoming a standard practice in building renovation

Energy prices for the end consumer of heat and cold are heavily influenced by taxes and subsidies, whether using fossil fuels, electric power, or renewable energies. Thus the competitiveness of individual energy technologies is dependent on political decisions and actions. The strategies for electrifying the heating market currently under discussion could further limit the impact of renewable heating and cooling. Using renewable energies (and in particular geothermal energy) directly for providing heat or cold is much more effective than first producing electric power and then converting it again into thermal energy. Electricity should not have a greater share of the heating and cooling market than that which is necessary for the demand side management and storage of electricity in the form of heat. Geothermal heat pumps are not electric heating, as the amount of renewable, geothermal heat is much higher than the electricity input used for operating the machinery; with modern ground source heat pumps achieving SPF of more than 4, the geothermal heat is more than 3 times the amount of electricity in the heat supplied to the building.


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Introduction

IntroductionIntroduction

As president of EGEC I feel proud to put this new update of the market report into the hands of members and other readers. I would like to thank the EGEC staff in Brussels for their hard and diligent work to get all data compiled and evaluated in time, in order to keep this reference document for the geothermal sector up-to-date and valid for another year.

I wish you an interesting read,

Burkhard Sanner, President of EGEC

Let me highlight two key findings in the 2013/14 report:

For geothermal power and geothermal district heating, some coverage of the geological risk is of paramount importance in order to attract investors.

For geothermal heat pumps, we need to have a level playing field with gas and other fossil fuels, and the regulatory barriers against wider use need to be removed.


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Introduction

Analysis of Geothermal Electricity market in Europe


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Analysis of Electricity M

arket

Geothermal Electricity

Analysis Geothermal electricity market in Europe

Introduction

The geothermal community celebrated in 2013 a centurys worth of experience in operating geothermal power plants. It was therefore a special year to present the steps the sector has already taken, and to develop ideas on future technological trends (in this edition, especially in the turbine sector)

Newly operational in 2014

Since December 2013, the geothermal power sector has experienced some growth. The total installed capacity in Europe is now more than 2 gigawatt-electric (GWe), producing some 12 terawatt hours (TWh) of electric power.

Over the last 12 months, 8 new power plants have become operational, all of them in Turkey:

Pamukren 1+2 (Aydn-Germencik), in operation since the end of 2013 with two 22.5MWe turbines provided by Atlas Copco

Gumuskoy 1 (Aydn-Germencik) with a 6.6 MWe ORC turbine supplied by TAS

Gumuskoy 2 (Aydn-Germencik) also supplied by a TAS turbine of 6.6 MWe

Dora 3U1 (Aydn-Salavatl), a 21 MWe

power plant with ORC technology supplied by ORMAT

Dora 3U2 (Aydn-Salavatl), a 20 MWe power plant with ORMAT technology

TR1 (Manisa-Alasehir), a 24 MWe binary power plant with an Ormat Turbine

Germencik 3 (Aydn-Germencik) with a ORC turbine of 25 MWe supplied by Ormat

Kerem 3 (Aydn-Germencik), with a 25 MWe ORC turbine again supplied by ORMAT.

The newly installed capacity amounts to a total of ca. 170 MWe.

Market analysis

There are now 77 power plants in Europe representing a total installed capacity of 2019 MWe. Geothermal plants are characterised by a high availability (amount of time that a plant is able to produce electricity over a certain period, typically a year, divided by the amount of the time in the period i.e. 8765-8766 hours) and net capacity factor (the ratio of the actual output of the geothermal plant over a period of time, to its potential output if it were possible for it to operate at full nameplate capacity indefinitely), typically in excess of 80%. Some geothermal plants operate at 100%.

51 geothermal electricity plants are located in the European Union. The total installed capacity in the EU-28 now amounts to around 945.96 MWe, producing some 5.56 TWh of electric power yearly.According to the 79 projects under development (compared to 74 last year), capacity on the continent is estimated to grow from 2 GWe installed in 2014

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Figure 1. Number of geothermal power plants in Europe


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to around 3.5 GWe in 2018, with this major increase linked to the rapid growth of the Turkish market. In addition, 128 projects are now currently being explored, which will substantially increase the installed geothermal electricity capacity in Europe.On average, based on production and capacity during the year 2012, the capacity factor was about 76%. This is because some power plants were commissioned in the later part of the year or were under repair (Bouillante in France) and therefore were only productive for a limited number of days.

Additionally, the capacity factor of a number of (cogeneration) plants, e.g. in Austria, was lower because production in these cases is mainly driven by heat demand.

Electricity generation per country is illustrated in Figure 3 while a breakdown by technology is depicted in the following Figure 4. A breakdown of the electricity generation in 2012 for each plant is available in the full version of the market report 2013/2014.

Figure 2. Installed capacity per country (MWe)

Figure 3. Geothermal electricity Cumulative installed capacity in Europe (2010-2014, MWe)


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The geothermal power market is not developing as quickly as expected. There are 3 main reasons for this:

Firstly, the vast geothermal potential is still underestimated and thereby there is an urgent need to increase awareness of its advantages especially for decision makers and investors

Secondly, much more financial support should be brought to the geothermal sector. Support schemes are crucial tools of public policy for geothermal to compensate for market failures and to allow the technology to progress along its learning curve. Funding allocated to geothermal energy is negligible compared to that which is allocated to other technologies. Adequate financial support for low temperature plants and EGS is available only in France, Germany and Switzerland.

Finally, beyond exploration, the bankability of a geothermal project is threatened by the geological risk. Risk insurance funds for the geological risk already exist in some European countries (France, Germany, Iceland, The Netherlands and Switzerland). The geological risk is a common issue all over Europe. Collaboration between Member States is desirable; it can allow them to save money and trigger the uptake of a valuable technology alike. For this reason the establishment of a Geothermal Risk Insurance Fund at the EU

level is of the utmost importance for the deep geothermal sector in Europe.

Technologies: focus on turbines

Dry steam power plants utilise straight forwardly steam, which is piped from production wells to the plant and then directed towards turbine blades. The first ever exploited geothermal field, still in operation in Larderello in Italy, is among the very few dry steam fields recorded worldwide.

Flash steam plants, by far the most common, address water dominated reservoirs and temperatures above 180C. The hot pressurised water flows up the well until its pressure decreases and it vaporises, leading to a two phase watersteam mixture and a vapour lift process. The steam, separated from the water, is piped to the plant to drive a turboalternator. The separated left over brine, together with the condensed steam, is piped back into the source reservoir, an injection process meeting waste disposal, heat recovery, pressure maintenance and, last but not least, resource sustainability requirements.

Binary, known also as Kalina and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC), plants operate usually with waters in the 100 to 180C temperature range. In these plants, the heat is recovered from the geothermal fluid, via a heat exchanger, to vaporise a low boiling point organic fluid and drive an organic vapour turbine. The heat depleted geothermal

Figure 4. Electricity production per country in 2012 (GWh)


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brine is pumped back into the source reservoir, thus securing sustainable resource exploitation. Since the geothermal and working fluids are kept separated during the process there are little (if any), atmospheric emissions. Developments in working fluid selection may allow the extension of the former design temperature range from 180C to 75C. These are the most appropriate for EGS projects at low and medium temperature.

Turbines installed

There are 4 types of turbines falling into 2 categories for operating geothermal power plants in Europe: Conventional (flash and dry steam), Binary (ORC and Kalina). Currently, there are more conventional plants in operation, but with on-going development of the other technologies, as well as the geographical flexibility of EGS plants, there will be an increase in binary types in the future. Binary processes are emerging as a cost effective conversion technology for recovering power from water dominated geothermal fields at temperatures below 180C.Conventional geothermal plants (flash and dry steam turbines) operating with Hydrothermal resources at high temperature have 100 years of history are fully commercial today with full costs (integrating systems costs and externalities) of about 7ct/kWh.

Medium & Low temperature/enthalpy (< 180c) geothermal power plants have been developing

for some years and are becoming more and more commercially viable, thanks to the improved efficiency of the binary (ORC and Kalina) turbines with full costs of around 12-18 ct/kWh for hydrothermal medium/ low enthalpy, and of ca. 25-30 ct/kWh for EGS.

Turbine Manufacturers

Globally, the market is dominated by the first three major manufacturers (Mitsubishi, Ormat and Fuji), who were responsible in 2013 for approximately 75% of the installed capacity and 60% of the units. The global market for geothermal turbines is indeed partially controlled by Japanese manufacturers including Toshiba Corp., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Fuji Electric Co. Those companies have market shares of about 24%, 22%, and 21% respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance last year. The very strong involvement of Japanese manufacturers is notable, considering the stalled development in Japan due to a lack of supporting measures. However, following Fukushima a new policy supporting geothermal is being developed.Two other manufacturers are prominent in Europe, Ansaldo-Tosi (the market leader) and GE- Nuovo Pignone. Alstom has also provided two conventional turbines in Europe and British Thompson Houston one turbine.

For Binary systems, 9 manufacturers have already provided turbines to geothermal power plants

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Figure 5. Installed capacity (MWe) per technology


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Figure 6. Installed capacity (%) per technology

Figure 7. Number of power plants per technology

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in Europe. For ORC: Ormat, Exergy, Altas Copco, Electra Therm, TAS, Cryostar, and Turboden. For Kalina cycle Cryostar and Rotoflow. Siemens stopped its production of turbines for geothermal after the project in Unterhaching (Germany - Kalina cycle provided by Cryostar) but decided last year to return to the geothermal industry, this time with steam turbines.

It is interesting to highlight the first triple flash plant in Europe at Denizli and in Turkey. Many new actors

coming from the fossil fuel industry and the waste heat recovery sector, and specialising in Combined Heat & Power, have recently shown an interest in the geothermal sector. Indeed, several emerging players are entering the small- and medium-sized turbine industry.

The stimulation of the market for binary systems should bring costs down rapidly with energy efficiency improvement and competition between manufacturers.

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Figure 8. Installed capacity (MWe) per manufacturer

Soultz-sous-Frets (France)


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Figure 9. Number of power plants per manufacturer

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NB :The Hellisheidi powerplant (303 MWe) is composed of 6 high pressure turbines of 45 MWe each from Mitsubi-shi, and 1 low pressure turbine (33 MWe), from Toshiba.

The turbine for Unterhaching plant is from Siemens, whilst Cryostar provided the Kalina cycle.

In Soultz-sous-forets, a Turboden/Cryostar consortium developed the ORC turbine with Cryostar providing the turbo-generators.

Valle Secolo (Italy)

Analysis of Geothermal District heating market in Europe


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Analysis of D

istrict Heating M

arket

Geothermal District Heating

Analysis of Geothermal District Heating market in Europe

Introduction

District Heating (DH) is the geothermal sector currently with the most dynamic development and the most interesting perspective in the coming years. The renewed momentum since 2009 continues, with 4 countries installing new Geothermal DH systems in the past year. The technology is developing: in 2014, smaller systems, targeting shallower resources and assisted by large heat pump systems have been installed.

An update of market trends is presented in the full version 2013/2014, with a focus on Hungary, the Netherlands and France.

Newly operational in 2014

Since the publication of the 2013/2014 market report in December 2013, the geothermal DH sector experienced interesting growth.

8 new operational systems have been installed this year, located in

France: a 10 MWth plant in Arceuil; Germany: in Ismaning (7MWth), Taufkirchen

(35MWth), and Traunreut (12MWth) (the last two will be developed as cogeneration plants).

Hungary: in Barcs (2 MWth) and in Trkszentmikls (3 MWth):

Italy: in Montieri, Tuscany (6.5 MWth) and in Vicenza (0,7 MWth)

The newly installed capacity amounts to 76.2 MWth.

Market analysis

There are 247 Geothermal District heating plants (including cogeneration systems) in Europe The total installed capacity amounts now to some 4.5 GWth. The plants in operation in 2012-13, produced approx.13 terawatt-hours thermal per year (TWh th/y) used for heating.

162 geothermal DH plants are located in the European Union. The total installed capacity in the EU-28 now amounts to around 1.3GWth, producing some 4256 GWh of thermal power, i.e. 366 ktoe in 2012.

According to the 204 planned projects, (compared to 195 last year and including the upgrading of existing plants), EGEC estimates that the capacity will grow from 4500 megawatts (MWth) installed in 2013 to at least 6500 MWth in 2018.

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Figure 10. Geothermal DH capacity installed in Europe, per country in 2014 (MWth)


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Analysis of D

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In 2014, the main GeoDH markets are still in France (45 systems), Iceland (32), Germany (25) and Hungary (21).

The hot markets are also mainly in Germany (44 new systems) and France (45 new systems being developed or upgraded), Hungary (19), Italy

(13) and Denmark (10). After France, Germany is therefore likely to become a EU leader in terms of number of GeoDH systems in operation.

It is of interest to highlight the situation in Hungary, a country with a long tradition in geothermal

Figure 11. Geothermal DH systems in Europe, per country in 2014 and 2018

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Figure 12. Geothermal DH production in Europe, per country in 2012/13 (GWh)


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Analysis of D

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District Heating which now sees new development: 2 new GeoDH systems have been inaugurated this year. The high ambition exemplified by the Hungarian NREAP (for Deep Geothermal heating & cooling systems, Hungarian authorities forecast a growth from 101 ktoe in 2010 to 357 ktoe by 2020) is illustrated with the 19 new GeoDH projects being developed.

One important new actor in the direct use / GeoDH market is The Netherlands where 8 deep geothermal systems for heating and cooling have been installed recently, and where 4 more are planned to be online by 2018.

CHP helps geothermal to become more economically attractive by recovering waste heat for heating and cooling purposes. Until now, only a few combined heat and power geothermal plants supplied District Heating systems, but this situation is rapidly changing. As a matter of fact, EGS (CHP) provides more opportunities for GeoDH systems.

In conclusion, it can be stated that 30 European countries (22 of which are EU Member States) show deep geothermal activity, evidence that geothermal can be developed almost anywhere in Europe.

Geothermal District Heating System in Copenhagen

Geothermal District Heating System in Hungary


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Analysis of D

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Potential

Based on Europes geothermal potential, geothermal energy could contribute much more significantly to the decarbonisation of the DH sector. A considerable expansion of the district heating sector is expected in the EU-28 until 2050; indeed, geothermal heat through future district heating systems could be available for more of 25% of the EU population.

The GeoDH project supported by the EU through the Intelligent Energy Europe programme and coordinated by EGEC, has provided an interactive web-map viewer that shows areas with good geothermal potential for district heating and heat demand.

The web-map indicates the existing DH systems, including GeoDH systems, in Europe. Moreover, regions with temperature distribution higher than 50C at 1000 m deep, and higher than 90C at 2000 m deep can be visualised. Besides, the online tool provides information on the areas with potential for GeoDH and the heat-flow density.

Bearing in mind that the enthalpy (temperature) is not the only selection criteria (other key factors are heat flow on the supply side, and the heat users (urban density) on the demand side) from the map below, limited to the 14 GeoDH project countries, we can note that:

GeoDH can be developed nearly in every country;

The potential for GeoDH development by 2020 is much higher than the forecasts of Member States in their NREAPs;

Geothermal can be installed, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, with existing DH systems during extension or renovation, replacing fossil fuels;

The Pannonian basin is of particular interest when looking at potential development in is Central and Eastern Europe countries;

In Southern Europe, the option of District Cooling should be considered.

Figure 13. Map of Geothermal Potential in Europe

Analysis of Shallow Geothermal market in Europe


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Analysis of Shallow

market

Geothermal Heat Pumps

Analysis of Shallow Geothermal market in Europe

Introduction

Shallow geothermal energy is available everywhere, and it is harnessed typically by ground source heat pump (GSHP) installations, using the heat pump to adjust the temperature of the heat extracted from the ground to the (higher) level needed in the building, or to adjust the temperature of heat coming from building cooling to the (lower) level required to inject it into the ground. The main technologies used to connect the underground heat to the building system comprise of:

open-loop systems, with direct use of groundwater through wells

closed-loop systems, with heat exchangers of several types in the underground; horizontal loops, borehole heat exchangers (BHE), compact forms of ground heat exchangers, thermo-active structures (pipes in any kind of building elements in contact with the ground), etc.

Shallow geothermal installations intended to change the underground temperature periodically (e.g. seasonally) fall under the term Underground Thermal Energy Storage (UTES). The delineation between GSHP and UTES is not sharp, and among the larger installations, only a minority are pure UTES. Large GSHP plants in most cases have a high share of the annual energy turnover inside the BHE field or the aquifer, and not with the surrounding or underlying ground, and thus qualify for the term storage. In all these large installations it is crucial to pursue a long-term balance of heat extracted from the ground and injected into the ground.

The different natural ground temperatures throughout Europe, from 2-3 C near the polar circle to about 20C in the very South of Europe, have a great influence on the options and design for shallow geothermal installations. Taking into consideration the building loads, the climatic zone the site is in, and the thermal and hydraulic parameters of the underground on site, the plant design has to guarantee that temperatures in the underground systems are kept within a given range

in the long term. This temperature range is defined on one side by the technical (thermal) requirements of the building system, and on the other side by environmental considerations concerning the groundwater and ground at the specific site.

Often buildings have a rather unbalanced heating and cooling demand, either given by their climatic surroundings (very cold and warm climates), or by the specific use of the building (there are e.g. shopping malls even in Northern Europe that require virtually no heating, but a lot of cooling). In these cases, hybrid systems are designed to cover as much load as possible from the geothermal system, and to balance the heat in the underground by separate sources like cold air in winter or at nighttime, waste heat, solar heat, etc. Using all the different design options available to geothermal design allows for small and large, energy-efficient, economic, and reliable installations all over Europe. A nice example here is the case of the Swedish company IKEA. A growing number of stores from Sweden to Spain (and in the USA, too) are equipped with shallow geothermal technology of different types, and adapted to the respective geological and climatic situations.

In terms of number of installations, installed capacity and energy produced, shallow geothermal energy is by far the largest sector of geothermal energy use in Europe. It enjoys the widest deployment among European countries, with very few countries having no shallow geothermal installations at all.

Market development

For shallow geothermal energy (GSHP and UTES), the overall installation growth is steady. This should result in a capacity of at least 17,700 MWth by the end of 2013, distributed over more than 1.3 Mio GSHP installations. As exact data for 2013 yet are available for a few countries only, this is based partly on some extrapolation, taking into account that in countries with a mature market, a growing share of the sales of new heat pumps goes into replacement of older units. Thus 5% was deducted from the total number of GSHP installed, to account for this replacement and for abandoned installations.

The countries with the highest amount of geothermal heat pumps are Sweden, Germany, France and Switzerland (figure 14). These four countries alone account for ca. 64% of all installed capacity for shallow geothermal energy in Europe.


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Analysis of Shallow

market

Looking at the time period 2010-2015, these 4 big players will have the greatest increase in terms of number of installations. In relative terms, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are among the countries with the highest growth rate.

The European-wide growth rate of the market for shallow geothermal systems was steady for some time, with new market actors filling the gaps left by others with decreasing sales. With this growth, the renewable heat used through GSHP has increased further between 2012 and 2013; however, this growth might have been much bigger under more favourable circumstances!

The GSHP market today is in difficulty nearly anywhere. While in some mature markets the situation still is rather stable, in others a decrease can be seen. In parts of Germany this can be attributed to continuously stricter regulation, causing delays and higher costs. This is also obvious from the tretnd towards a higher share of air-source heat pumps in the total heat pump sales in Germany (figure 16), resulting in an all-time low of 35 % GSHP in 2013. The longer procedures and higher installation cost lure consumers to the seemingly cheaper air-source alternative, even with the need for electric resistance back-up for air source, and in light of the much higher efficiency of GSHP. The latest information from the monitoring done in Germany

by Fraunhofer ISE (Freiburg) shows an advantage of around 30% for the geothermal source (figure 15).

Across Germany, and some other neighbouring countries, GSHP systems are becoming less competitive; as the cost of electricity (which is required to run the heat pump) increases, the use of fossil fuels such as natural gas for heating becomes more favourable financially. In developing markets, the growth rate is low, minus 20% sales in some countries, and juvenile markets are not really progressing. Here the aftermath of the economic crisis and the low rate of construction in some countries take their toll. With an economic recovery, a new increase in the GSHP market can be expected.

What are the main reasons for the current lull in the market?1. Not enough awareness about this technology

and its advantages. In particular, architects, the building sector, and local authorities need to be better informed.

2. Cost intensity is an issue, in particular for investment. Because of the drilling, geothermal heat pumps can be considered as a capital-intensive technology in comparison with other small scale applications.

3. Quite unfavourable competition with gas. Geothermal heat technologies are heading for

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Lith

uan

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Turk

ey

Slo

vaki

a

Ru

ssia

Ro

man

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Serb

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Be

laru

s

Bu

lgar

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Mac

ed

on

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Icel

and

Alb

ania

Po

rtu

gal

Latv

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Bo

snia

-Her

z.

Figure 14. Shallow geothermal installed capacity (MWth) in Europe 2013, after EGC 2013 country up-date reports (based on Antics et al., 2013, updated and partly extrapolated)


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Analysis of Shallow

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competitiveness, but support is still needed in certain cases, notably in emerging markets and where a level playing field does not exist. In addition, there is a need for an in-depth analysis of the heat sector, including about the best practises to promote geothermal heat, the synergies between energy efficiency and renewable heating and cooling, and barriers to competitiveness. As Geothermal Heat Pumps can be considered a mature and competitive technology, a level playing field with fossil fuel heating systems will allow the phasing out of

any subsidies for shallow geothermal in the heating sector.

4. Regulations need to be simplified further.5. Bad publicity from problematic projects in

Germany and recently in France.

We expect to get some better understanding of how barriers actually can be removed and GSHP (and UTES) can be promoted, e.g. by inclusion into regional and local planning, from project ReGeoCities (supported by the EU through IEE), to be concluded in 2015; see more at regeocities.eu.

Geothermal Air source Advantage geothermal

Heat pumps in renovation (2008-2009) mean 3,3 2,6 26,9 %range 2,2 - 4,3 2,1 - 3,3

Heat pumps in new building (2007-2010) mean 3,9 2,9 34,5 %range 3,1 - 5,1 2,3 - 3,4

Heat pumps in new building (2012-2013) mean 4,0 3,1 29,0 %range 3,0 - 5,4 2,2 - 4,2

Figure 15. Efficiency of geothermal and air-source heat pumps in field monitoring in Germany. SPF values from different monitoring campaigns by Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg (values taken from presentation by Miara at BWP Wrmepumpenforum 2014, Berlin 14.11.2014, with own calculation of advantage)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Figure 16. Share of GSHP in the total heat pump market in Germany. Annual sales numbers for heat pumps in Germany (after BWP), as to heat source (air our geothermal), and share of geothermal in the total sales


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Analysis of Shallow

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EGEC is the voice of Geothermal in EuropeMore than 120 members from 28 countries, including private companies, national associations, consultants, research centres, geological surveys, and public authorities, make EGEC the strongest and most powerful geothermal network in Europe, uniting and representing the entire sector.

An international non-profit organisation founded in 1998 and based in the heart of the European quarter in Brussels, the role of EGEC is to promote members interests, making sure they develop and thrive. It enables the development of the European geothermal industry- whether shaping policy, improving business conditions, or driving more research and development.

The work of the secretariat can be divided into three categories:

Intelligence gathering: monitoring, analysing and researching the political environment, briefing members on legislative and financial developments and the effects their businesses

Promotion: speaking for the geothermal industry and make sure it has a positive position in public discourse. Members have exclusive marketing opportunities are represented at the main industry events

Impact: giving members access to decision makers and helping them shape European policy. The secretariat also arranges and facilitates networking and makes contacts on members behalf.

Members receive tailored and individual support, regular updates on news and opportunities from Brussels and the rest of Europe, access to privileged information in the members only section of the website, and a number of financial benefits.

About the EGEC market ReportThe European Geothermal Energy Council originally developed the Market Report in order to fill an information gap in the geothermal sector. It is designed to give market intelligence to companies and investors already working in the sector, and to inform new entrants about the current state of the market and its future development.

The report, which includes chapters on the Shallow, Power, and District Heating sectors, is compiled each year using data from various statistical analyses, local experts, utilities, energy Agencies, and national associations. It includes details of all major projects operational, under development and under investigation, as well as an analysis of market development, the regulatory and public policy environment, financial tools and incentives, market forecasts, and key players.

The 2013/14 edition incudes for the first time an analysis of the turbine market, maps of licence areas for deep geothermal in France, Italy and Germany, and Information on support schemes for geothermal heating and cooling.

This update, published in December 2014, includes analyses of the electricity, district heating and shallow markets. It covers the changes in the market since the 2013/2014 report was published. It does not include details of projects in operation, under development and under investigation- this information is only available to EGEC members. The full 2013/2014 report is free to Members and is available to non-members for 250.


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Analysis of Shallow

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The next section of the market report

is only available to EGEC members.

IntroductionAnalysis of Geothermal Electricity market in EuropeAnalysis of Geothermal District heating market in EuropeAnalysis of Shallow Geothermal market in Europe

egec market report update online

Documents

egec geothermal market

current market

details of geothermal

world geothermal congress

e g e cegec market report

egec members

renewable energy

belgium margarita