ekos accurately predicts ontario liberal majority · confident in calling a liberal victory as...

Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.

www.ekospolitics.ca

EKOS ACCURATELY PREDICTS ONTARIO LIBERAL

MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general

election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen

Wynne’s majority victory.1 Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the

margin of error.

38.7

37.3

31.2

31.3

23.7

19.2 4

4.8

8.2

2

Other

EKOS Final Poll (all eligible voters)

Preliminary 2014 Ontario Election Results

EKOS final poll vs. Election results

BASE (FINAL POLL): Residents of Ontario; June 10-11, 2014 (n=1,311)Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.

We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were

confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot

at a majority government.2 There was, however, an abrupt post-debate boost to Hudak as he

that saw his Progressive Conservatives leading on two separate nights. This surge quickly

subsided, however, and the results returned to their pre-debate levels. We made the majority call

the evening of June 11th. Among those firms who released results in the last week of the

campaign, all but one other firm saw it as leaning PC or too close to call.

The exact dynamics of how the popular vote translates into seats are complex and given our

deadlines and the relatively small sample sizes on a region-to-region basis, we opted not to

provide an official seat projection, stating simply that the Kathleen Wynne would likely win a

majority.

1 EKOS Research Associates, “An Overview of the Campaign and a Reasoned Guess at the Outcome”, June 11, 2014. Available online

at: http://goo.gl/BdPK7H

2 EKOS Research Associates, “Modest Listing in Wynne’s Ship Seems to Have Corrected”, June 5, 2014. Available online at:

http://goo.gl/Ge1vDC


Lessons learned from “likely voter” model

In the later stages of the campaign, we provided a “likely voters” model to offer insights into the

vote intention of those who are most likely to show up at the ballot booth come Election Day.

While we tweaked this model several times throughout the campaign, the basic premise behind

this model involved calculating a score for each respondent that reflected the probability that

they would show up and vote on Election Day. The score was based a on a number of factors,

including past voting behaviour, self-rated likelihood of actually voting, knowledge of one’s

polling station location, age, and emotional engagement. Since it was safe assumption than only

about half of eligible voters would cast a ballot, we then isolated the 50 per cent of respondents

who received the highest scores and dropped the remaining cases.

In short, our likely voter model did not work the way we had hoped and we will not be using this

particular model again. We will be doing some more analysis around likely voters over the coming

weeks, but believe that a lighter and more conservative approach with the most clearly

documented linkages would make more sense.

Some readers may be asking why the likely voter model seemed to be penalizing NDP

supporters. NDP supporters consistently provided responses that suggested that they would be

less likely to vote come Election Day; they were younger, less likely to have voted in advance,

less likely to express enthusiasm for voting in general, less likely to know the location of their

polling station, less likely to have voted in past elections, and more likely to express

discouragement (rather than stronger emotions such as hope or anger). We had every reason to

believe that large numbers of NDP supporters would stay home on Election Day but, indeed, they

did not.

A note on reporting poll results

Finally, we would like to take this opportunity to offer up our views on how poll results were

presented in the final stages of the campaign. We believe that a clear and unambiguous call is an

important measure of election polling. It is not enough to simply produce poll numbers that just

happen to be in the same ballpark as the actual election results, particularly when these figures

come out weeks before the election itself.

We did not base our majority call on a single poll. Instead, it involved a reasoned conjecture

based on the patterns that were established through the campaign. Wynne enjoyed a modest,

but clear lead throughout most of the campaign. While it is true that we observed a significant

shift towards the PCs in the wake of the debate, this surge quickly receded and the results

promptly returned to their pre-debate levels. Furthermore, her key constituencies – most notably


women, university graduates and those in the Greater Toronto Area – were unwavering in their

support.

It was for these reasons that we were able to see the actual result coming. The patterns were

clear and consistent and, from the vantage point of our data, there was no justification for

vaguely deeming the election to be “too close to call”. There is a clear difference between seeing

and calling the outcome based on the overall trends in the data and having a single poll which

looks like the outcome, but where no such prediction is made.

Closing comments

In closing, we would like to thank the 6,243 Ontarians who generously took the time to

participate in our surveys over the course of this campaign. We applaud the candidates who had

the courage to throw their hats in the ring and we congratulate Kathleen Wynne on securing a

majority government. We congratulate the voters who had the commitment to actually show up

and be counted. We also thank our sponsors at iPolitics who have staked out an interest in a

more ambitious program of research. We also acknowledge the skill and commitment of our

colleagues and competitors who enter the arena of political polling in an era of diminished

resources and rising methodological challenges.


Appendix 1: Aggregated Results (May 29-June 11, 2014)


36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9

Other

3438 36 36 35

38

29 3034

41

1720 20 18

15

7 9 10 85

0

10

20

30

40

50

Vote intention by gender/age

Women 18-44 45-64 65+Men

Gender Age

Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

*Respondents were also asked if they had already voted. Figures include the responses of those who voted in advance polls or by special ballot.

BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29 – June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)


36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9

Other

2630

48

353939

36

27

3431

21 22

1419 17

8 9 8 8 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

Vote intention by other demographics

College Born in Canada

Born Elsewhere

UniversityHigh School

Education Country of birth






36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9

Other

47

37

29 31 32

27

3236

45

32

17 1821

14

21

79 9

79

0

10

20

30

40

50

Vote intention by region

SuburbanGTA

Ottawa &Eastern Ontario

North & CentralOntario

SouthwestOntario

Toronto/CoreGTA





Appendix 2: Demographic Trends (May 29-June 11, 2014)


3433

37 3634

31 3234

3633

38 37

3335

3639

36

4037

17 1817

1817

1820 20

15 16 17

7

10

78 8

97 8

6 6

9

52 3

46 6

3 3 3 4 3

3434

42

37

19

7

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11

33.6 37.9 17.0 7.3 4

Other

Vote intention: MenQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?

BASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,983)


40 3941 42

3940

36 35 36

41

2422

3027 27 26

32

36

252523

17 18

22 22 21 21 21

24

8

14

8 9 9 10 10

79

8 8

4

1

45

42

1 2 2

5 4

35

39

33 28

24

22

24

76

0

10

20

30

40

50


Vote intention: WomenQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

38.4 29.4 19.7 8.9 4

OtherBASE: Ontario (Women), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,843)



42

34 35

30

3537

34

37

25

30

26

34

3133 33

25 26

1821 22

23 22

19

23

27

21

9 9

1210

9 9

67

12

67

5

2 3 2

57

4

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11

Vote intention: <45Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

36.3 29.9 19.8 9.5 5

OtherBASE: Ontario (<45 years of age), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=1,167)


42

39

36

39 3938 37

3536

39

2830 30

2730

32

36 3735

20 2018

1920 21 21 20

17 18 19

6

8 9 9 109 9

7 8 8

542 2 3 3 3

2 24 4

3

34

40

35

3334

18

6

3

0

10

20

30

40

50


Vote intention: 45-64Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

36.3 34.1 18.4 8.0 3

OtherBASE: Ontario (ages 45-64), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,325)



34

40

3634

3634

36

33

3635 36

42

3840

4241

4442

4342

37

17 1614 13 14 13 14

17 17 17 16

5 5 5 5 6 5 54

57

31

43 3 2 2

4 4

33

3938

17

5

66 5

0

10

20

30

40

50


Vote intention: 65+Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

35.0 41.3 14.8 5.0 4

OtherBASE: Ontario (≥65 years of age), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,323)


26

29

36

2927

20

27

23

34

25

3634 35

45 45 45

36

25

2223

15

19

2123

18

24 25

8

18

56

11 11 11

8

5 5

97

32

9 8

3 3

7

26

31

22

23

35

40

31

6

4

10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Vote intention: High SchoolQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

26.3 39.4 21.3 7.7 5

OtherBASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=1,193)



29

34

3132 32

27

24

36

3334

40

3335

32

36 36

39

29

2022

1719

2625

23 2321

9 911 11

8 96

810

7

10

5

2 3 3 23 2 2 1

53

3232 2831

40

34

27 22

9

4

0

10

20

30

40

50


Vote intention: CollegeQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

29.9 36.4 21.5 9.2 3



48

43

4951

47 47 47 4649 49 49

26

2927

2426

27 2728 28

30

1917

13 13

16 16 16 17

13 14 14

5

108 8

79 8

7 8 86

21

4 5 42 2 2 3 4

2

51

26 27

15

5

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Vote intention: UniversityQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*

48.1 27.1 13.6 7.7 4



Appendix 3: Trends in Other Indicators (May 29-June 11, 2014)


9.8 26.3 26.3 29.5 8.1

DK/NR Angry Discouraged Hopeful Happy

Emotions towards current governmentQ. When thinking about Kathleen Wynne's Liberal government, which of the following

emotions best describes how you feel?

0

10

20

30

40

June 1 June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11



46.5

57.7

42.7

56.3

53.5

42.3

57.3

43.7

Wrong Direction Right Direction

October 3-5, 2011

October 3-5, 2011

May 29 – June 11, 2014

Direction of province/government

BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample each); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,103/3,140)

Q. All things considered, would you say Ontario / the Government of Ontario is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

May 29 – June 11, 2014

Note: In 2011, respondents were not given the option of skipping the question. The 2014 results have been adjusted to exclude those who did not provide valid responses.

Direction of Province

Direction of Provincial Government



9.8 50.8 39.4

DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction

Direction of provinceQ. All things considered, would you say Ontario is moving in the right direction or the

wrong direction?

10 10 10 9 9 9 9 911

13

5451 51 52

54 5452

5047

44

37 38 40 3937 37

3941

4342

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,103)


9.2 52.4 38.4

DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction

Direction of provincial governmentQ. All things considered, would you say the Government of Ontario is moving in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

8 8 98 7 8

11 11 10 10

54

50

5653 53

51 50

55 54 54

3842

35

39 4042

39

3436 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,140)



9.0

11.4

42.1

39.2

33.6

28.4

15.3

20.9

DK/NR Less likely Neither more nor less likely More likely

Impact of federal Conservative presence

BASE: Residents of Ontario; most recent data point May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)

* The wording of the question has changed slightly since 2011. In 2011, respondents were asked about the presence of a

“strong” majority Conservative federal government.

May 29 – June 11, 2014

October 3-5, 2011

Q. Does the presence of a majority Conservative federal government make you less or more likely to vote for a conservative choice in the next provincial election?*


11.4 39.2 28.4 20.9

DK/NR Less likely Neither more nor less likely More likely

Impact of federal Conservative presenceQ. Does the presence of a majority Conservative federal government make you less or

more likely to vote for a Conservative choice in the next provincial election?

3841

3840 41

3938

4143

40

32

2928 28

2628 28

27 2628

2019

20 20

22 22 23 2220 19

10

20

30

40

50


BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)

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