el estado de internet

7/31/2019 El Estado de Internet

1/137

StateOfTheInternet:2012HenryBlodget

CEO&EIC,BusinessInsider


2/137

ThecommercialInternetisnow~20yearsold.


3/137

So,howarewedoing?


4/137

2+billionpeopleonline

0"

500"

1,000"

1,500"

2,000"

2,500"

1990" 1991" 1992" 1993" 1994" 1995" 1996" 1997" 1998" 1999" 2000" 2001" 2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011"

(millions)

Global)Internet)Popula4on)

Source:(Interna-onal(Communica-on(Union,(Google(


5/137

2/3oftheworldlefttogo

Global&Popula*on&

Internet&Popula*on&

0"

1,000"

2,000"

3,000"

4,000"

5,000"

6,000"

7,000"

1990"1991"1992"1993"1994"1995"1996"1997" 1998"1999"2000"2001"2002"2003"2004"2005"2006" 2007"2008"2009"2010"2011"

(millions)

Global&Internet&Popula*on&

Source:(Interna-onal(Communica-on(Union,(Google(


6/137

USNewmediastockvalue3Xoldmedia

$0#

$200#

$400#

$600#

$800#

$1,000#

$1,200#

New#Media# Old#Media#

!

MarketValue

(billions)


7/137

(WhenyouincludeApple)

MarketValue

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Apple Google Amazon Facebook Disney Comcast News Corp TimeWarner

TimeWarnerCable

Viacom CBS

Billions


8/137

Asever,powerisveryconcentrated

New Media

Old Media

$1,089 Billion Market Value

$366 Billion Market Value

Disney'

Comcast'

News'Corp'

Time'Warner'

Time'Warner'

Cable'

Viacom'

CBS'

Apple%

Google%

Amazon%

Facebook%

Yahoo% Twi6er% Hulu%Ne;lix%


9/137

Andnowtotheactualbusinesses


10/137

MEDIA


11/137

U.S.DigitalAdvertisingismakinghugegains

$0#

$5#

$10#

$15#

$20#

$25#

$30#

$35#

1995# 1996# 1997# 1998# 1999# 2000# 2001# 2002# 2003# 2004# 2005# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(billions)

U.S.)Digital)Adver6sing)

Source:(IAB(


12/137

Andnowaccountsfor~20%oftotaladspend

Offline&

Online&

$0#

$20#

$40#

$60#

$80#

$100#

$120#

$140#

$160#

$180#

1995# 1996# 1997# 1998# 1999# 2000# 2001# 2002# 2003# 2004# 2005# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(billions)

U.S.&Adver4sing&

Source:(IAB,(U.S.(Census(Bureau,(Stategy(Analy7cs.(BI(Intelligence(es7mates((


13/137

Amongthelargestmediacompanies,more

thanone-thirdofadspendingisnowonline.

77%#

share#

62%#

share#

23%#

share#

38%#

share#

$0#

$10,000#

$20,000#

$30,000#

$40,000#

$50,000#

$60,000#

$70,000#

$80,000#

2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

U.S.$

Adver*sing$

Revenue$

(millions)$

Source:#Company#filings#and#BI#Intelligence#esFmates.#Companies#include:#Google,#Yahoo,#AOL,#MicrosoN,#acebook,#Time#Warner,#Disney,#Viacom,#CBS,#ews##Corp,#ew#York#Times,#GanneX,#McClatchy,#Time#Inc,#Entercom,#CBS#Radio,#Clear#Channel,#Citadel,#Cum#

Online$vs.$Offline$Adver*sing$(U.S.),$2006


14/137

TVstillbiggest.Onlineclosebehind.

Printgettingsmashed.

41%$42%$

10%$

23%$13%$

14%$

20%$

9%$

11%$

7%$

6%$

4%$

0$

10,000$

20,000$

30,000$

40,000$

50,000$

60,000$

70,000$

80,000$

2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$

U.S.$

Adver*sing$

Revenue$

(millions)$

Source:$Represents$annual$U.S.$adverAsing$revenue$for$20$large$media$companies$based$on$company$filings$and$our$own$esAmates$

U.S.$Adver*sing,$2006:2011$

All$Other$Online$

Television$

Print$

Radio$

Outdoor$

Google


15/137

Newspaperadrevenuehascollapsed


16/137

TVmaybenext.


17/137

Over-the-topvideoisrealandgrowingfast.

Ne#lix'

YouTube'

Hulu'

$0#

$1,000#

$2,000#

$3,000#

$4,000#

$5,000#

2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

Total'

Digital'

Revenues'

(millions)'

Source:#Company#filings#and#BI#Intelligence#esDmates#

Digital'Video'Revenue,'2006?2011'


18/137

PayTVsubscriptionsaretrendingdown.

Source:BernsteinResearch,BIIntelligenceestimates

Cable&

Satellite&

TelCo&

Total&

!1000$

!800$

!600$

!400$

!200$

0$

200$

400$

600$

800$

1000$

1Q09$ 2Q09$ 3Q09$ 4Q09$ 1Q10$ 2Q10$ 3Q10$ 4Q10$ 1Q11$ 2Q11$ 3Q11$ 4Q11$ 1Q12$ 2Q12$

Subscriber&

Net&Addi3ons&

(thousands)&

Pay&TV&Subscriber&Net&Addi3ons&


19/137

Inonlineads,Googleiscompletelydominant.Facebooksgainingsteam

Google


20/137

FacebookhasalreadyblownpastAOL,Microsoft,andYahoo

Google&

Facebook&

Microso0&

Yahoo&

AOL&

Other&

$0#

$1,000#

$2,000#

$3,000#

$4,000#

$5,000#

$6,000#

$7,000#

$8,000#

$9,000#

2Q06#3Q06#4Q06#1Q07#2Q07#3Q07#4Q07#1Q08#2Q08#3Q08#4Q08#1Q09#2Q09#3Q09#4Q09#1Q10#2Q10#3Q10#4Q10#1Q11#2Q11#3Q11#4Q11#1Q12#

Digital&

Adver:sing&

Revenue&

(millions)&

U.S&Digital&Adver:sing&

Source:(company(filings(BII(es5mates(

4%&

11%&

3%&

13%&

6%&

55%&

11%&

8%&

7%&

4%&

15%&


21/137

Google,Facebookandahandfulofnewcompaniesarewinning,portalslosing.

80%

share!

Yahoo%

Microso+%AOL%

Google%

Other%

Facebook%

$0#

$1,000#

$2,000#

$3,000#

$4,000#

$5,000#

$6,000#

$7,000#

$8,000#

$9,000#


Digital%

Adver:sing%

Revenue%

(millions)%

U.S%Digital%Adver:sing%Winners%And%Losers%

Source:(company(filings,(BII(es6mates(

40%

11%

30%

13%

6%

55%

11%

8%

7%

4%

15%


22/137

Displayadgrowthisflattening.

Google&

Other&

Yahoo&

AOL&

Microso3&

$0#

$500#

$1,000#

$1,500#

$2,000#

$2,500#

$3,000#


Display&

Adver9sing&

Revenue&

(millions)&

U.S.&Display&Adver9sing&

Source:(company(filings,(BII(es6mates(


23/137

AndnewcompaniestakingsharefromportalsYouTube,Hulu,Glam,Twitter,Demand,etal.

Facebook(YouTube(

WebMD(

Hulu(

Demand(Media(

Twi6er(

Federated(Media(

Glam(Media(

$0#

$200#

$400#

$600#

$800#

$1,000#

$1,200#

$1,400#

$1,600#

$1,800#


Digital(

Adver=sing(

Revenue(

millions)(

US(Digital(Adver=sing:(New(Growth(Companies(

Source:(company(filings(BII(es5mates(


24/137

SOCIAL


25/137

Americansnowspendmoretimeonsocialnetworksthanportals

Social'Networks'

Portals'

0'

5'

10'

15'

20'

25'

30'

Nov62010' Dec62010' Jan62011' Feb62011' Mar62011' Apr62011'May62011' Jun62011' Jul62011' Aug62011' Sep62011' Oct62011' Nov62011' Dec62011'

Average'Minutes'

Per'Usage'Day'

Average'Time'Spent:'Portals'vs.'Social'Networks'(U.S.)'

Source:(comScore(


26/137

1/7thoftheworldspopulationuseFacebook

Monthly(Ac+ve(Users(

Daily(Ac+ve(Users(

0(

100(

200(

300(

400(

500(

600(

700(

800(

900(

1,000(

1Q09( 2Q09( 3Q09( 4Q09( 1Q10( 2Q10( 3Q10( 4Q10( 1Q11( 2Q11( 3Q11( 4Q11( 1Q12( 2Q12(

Ac+ve(

Users(

millions)(

Facebook(Ac+ve(Users(


27/137

Withinsocial,Facebookdominates.

!"!!!!

!20,000!!

!40,000!!

!60,000!!

!80,000!!

!100,000!!

!120,000!!

!140,000!!

!160,000!!

!180,000!!

!200,000!!

Nov"2010!Dec"2010! Jan"2011! Feb"2011!Mar"2011! Apr"2011!May"2011!Jun"2011! Jul"2011! Aug"2011!Sep"2011! Oct"2011! Nov"2011!Dec"2011!

Monthly!

Unique!Visitors!

(thousands)!

Social!Networks:!Unique!Visitors!(U.S.)!

Source:(comScore(

Facebook!

Google!Sites!Yahoo!Sites!

Pinterest!Tumblr!

LinkedIn! Twier! Google+!


28/137

So,willFacebookbebiggerthan

Google?


29/137

Unlikely.


30/137

Googleisthebestadproductinthe

historyoftheworldbecauseitslikeadvertisingatastore.


31/137

Facebook,meanwhile,islike

advertisingataparty.


32/137

Socialreferralstocommercesitesarestilltiny

Facebook referrals up 92% year-over-year

80.6%&

9.7%&7.5%& 1.7%& 0.5%& 0.02%&

0.0%&

10.0%&

20.0%&

30.0%&

40.0%&

50.0%&

60.0%&

70.0%&

80.0%&

90.0%&

Google& Yahoo& Bing& AOL& Facebook& Twier&

Percentage&

Of&Traffic&&

Drivers&of&ECommerce&Traffic&

Source:(RIchRelevance(


33/137

eCOMMERCE


34/137

E-Commercecontinuestotakeshare

Offline&Retail&Sales&

E.Commerce&

$0#

$500,000#

$1,000,000#

$1,500,000#

$2,000,000#

$2,500,000#

$3,000,000#

$3,500,000#

$4,000,000#

$4,500,000#

$5,000,000#

1995#1996#1997#1998#1999#2000#2001#2002#2003#2004#2005#2006#2007#2008#2009#2010#2011#

(millions)

US&Retail&Sales&

Source:(Federal(Reserve(Economic(Data66St.(Louis(Fed,(BI(Intelligence(es=mates(


35/137

Newpure-playslaunchedinlastfewyears

E"Commerce)

$0)

$25,000)

$50,000)

$75,000)

$100,000)

$125,000)

$150,000)

$175,000)

$200,000)

2000) 2001) 2002) 2003) 2004) 2005) 2006) 2007) 2008) 2009) 2010) 2011)

Total))

Sales)

(millions)

U.S.)E"Commerce)Sales)

Source:(Federal(Reserve(Economic(Data(6(St.(Louis(Fed,(Company(Filings,(BII(Es@mates(

Pure-Play"SocialCommerce"


36/137

Andtheyregrowingfast.

Groupon'

Gilt'Groupe'

LivingSocial'

Rue'La'La'

HauteLook'

Beyond'The'Rack'

Zulily'

Ideeli'

One'Kings'Lane'

ShoeDazzle'

Fab'

$0'

$500'

$1,000'

$1,500'

$2,000'

$2,500'

$3,000'

$3,500'

2008' 2009' 2010' 2011'

Total'Revenue'

(millions)'

Social'Commerce'Revenues'

Source:(Company(Filings,(BII(Es8mates(


37/137

MOBILE


38/137

Somethingprofoundhappenedlastyear


39/137

SmartphonesalesovertookPCsales

Personal)Computers)

Smartphones)

Tablets)

)3))))

)100,000,000))

)200,000,000))

)00,000,000))

)400,000,000))

)500,000,000))

)600,000,000))

)700,000,000))

)800,000,000))

)900,000,000))

)1,000,000,000))

2000) 2001) 2002) 200) 2004) 2005) 2006) 2007) 2008) 2009) 2010) 2011)

Units)

Global)Internet)Device)Sales)

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(


40/137

Andwillsoondwarfthem

Personal)Computers)

Smartphones)

Tablets)

)3))))

)500,000,000))

)1,000,000,000))

)1,500,000,000))

)2,000,000,000))

)2,500,000,000))

),000,000,000))

2000) 2001) 2002) 200) 2004) 2005) 2006) 2007) 2008) 2009) 2010) 2011) 2012E) 201E) 2014E) 2015E) 2016E)

Units)

Global)Internet)Device)Sales)

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(

Wearehere


41/137

PCsales,meanwhile,areinastall

HP#

Lenovo#

Dell#

Acer#

Apple#

Other#

0"

10,000"

20,000"

30,000"

40,000"

50,000"

60,000"

70,000"

80,000"

90,000"

100,000"

1Q08" 2Q08" 3Q08" 4Q08" 1Q09" 2Q09" 3Q09" 4Q09" 1Q10" 2Q10" 3Q10" 4Q10" 1Q11" 2Q11" 3Q11" 4Q11" 1Q12" 2Q12"

Global#PC#Shipments#By#Manufacturer#

Source:(Gartner,(IDC(

iPad"released"


42/137

TabletswillalsoblowpastPCsalesinafewyears

E"Readers)

0)

50)

100)

150)

200)

250)

300)

350)

400)

450)

500)

2010) 2011) 2012E) 2013E) 2014E) 2015E) 2016E)

Units))

Sold)

(millions)

Tablet)Sales)Forecast)

Wearehere


43/137

Sothefutureismobile

Fixed& Fixed&Fixed&

Mobile&

Mobile&

0&

500&

1,000&

1,500&

2,000&

2,500&

3,000&

2005& 2010& 2015&

Consumer&

Broadband&

Connec:ons&

(milions)&

G>20&Internet&Access&

Source:(Boston(Consul/ng(Group,(Mary(Meeker,(Kleiner(Perkins,(Morgan(Stanley(Research,(Berg(Insight(


44/137

Whereareweinthemobilerevolution?


45/137

Globally,wereearly.

Feature'Phone'Sales'

Smartphone'Sales'

!"!!!!

!500!!

!1,000!!

!1,500!!

!2,000!!

!2,500!!

2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016!

Global!Mobile!

Phone!Sales!

(millions)!

Global!Smartphone!Penetra>on!Forecast!

Wearehere


46/137

TheU.S.,however,ismorethanhalfwaythere

35%$

48%$

17%$

46%$

41%$

12%$

0%$

10%$

20%$

30%$

40%$

50%$

60%$

Smartphone$ Feature$Phone$ No$Cell$Phone$

Changes(In(Smartphone(Ownership,(201172012(U.S.)(

May>11$ Feb>12$


47/137


48/137

IntheUS,wevehitthatpoint.

0"

5"

10"

15"

20"

25"

30"

35"

40"

Q1"

2008"

Q2"

2008"

Q3"

2008"

Q4"

2008"

Q1"

2009"

Q2"

2009"

Q3"

2009"

Q4"

2009"

Q1"

2010"

Q2"

2010"

Q3"

2010"

Q4"

2010"

Q1"

2011"

Q2"

2011"

Q3"

2011"

Q4"

2011"

Q1"

2012"

Q2"

2012"

Users%

Added%

(millions)%

U.S.%Smartphone%Market:%Year9Over9Year%Net%Adds%

Source:(comScore,(Nielsen(


49/137

Mostoftheunder-penetratedsegmentsinUS

areolderandpoorer

56%$

43%$

31%$

18%$

16%$ 16%$

53%$

58%$

44%$

32%$

17%$

15%$

69%$

65%$

50%$

30%$

23%$

16%$

70%$

65%$

52%$

41%$

27%$

21%$

65%$

74%$

63%$

51%$

42%$

24%$

77%$

80%$

75%$

60%$

48%$

38%$

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

Ages#18##24# Ages#25##34# Ages#35##44# Ages#45##54# Ages#55##64# Ages#65+#

Smartphone#Penetra=on#By#Age#And#Income#(U.S.)#


50/137

SothefocusisonChina,whichnowaccountsforaquarterofsmartphonesales.

Rest%Of%The%World%

China%

!"!!!!

!20,000!!

!40,000!!

!60,000!!

!80,000!!

!100,000!!

!120,000!!

!140,000!!

!160,000!!

!180,000!!

1Q11! 2Q11! 3Q11! 4Q11! 1Q12! 2Q12!

(thousands)

Global%Smartphone%Shipments%

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(Canalys,(BII(es5mates(


51/137

So,whatdopeople

doonmobile?


52/137

Well,first,theydoprettymuch

everythingtheydoonline


53/137

Theyplaygamesandsocial-network

25# 24#

15#24#

11#

12#10#

10#7#

7#

Q1#2011# Q1#2012#

Daily&Smartphone&App&Consump4on,&Minutes&Per&Category&

Games# Social#Networking# News# Entertainment# Other#

Source:(Flurry(Analy/cs(


54/137

Gamessessionsup20-foldintwoyears

1.0X%

5.3X%

20.5X%

Q1%2010% Q1%2011% Q1%2012%

iOS$&$Android$Mobile$Game$Session$Growth$

Source:(Flurry(Analy/cs(


55/137

Theylistentomusic...

5%#

Pandora#

70%#

1%#

Facebook#

33%#

Twi6er#

55%#

0%#

25%#

50%#

75%#

2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

%ofTrafficfro

m#M

obile

Source:#Mary#Meeker,#Kleiner#Perkins,#companies#


56/137

Theyconsumecontent

134%

94%

82%

80%77%

74%

74%

72%

70%

69%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Health

Informa:on

OnlineRetai l Men's

Magazine

Content

Electronic

Payment

Gaming

Informa:on

JobL is:ngs General

Reference

Classifieds Auc:onSites Family

Entertainment

Total&

Mobile&

Audience&

(thousands)&

Top&Mobile&Categories&By&Growth&In&Audience,&Dec.&2010&vs.&Dec.&2011&(U.S.)&

Dec10 Dec11

Source:(comScore(MobieLens,(3(mon.(avg.(ending(Dec82011(vs.(Dec82010(


57/137

Mobilenowaccountsfor12%ofglobalinternettraffic

Source:StatCounter

Desktop(

1%(4%(

Mobile(12%(

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

2008

-12#

2009

-02#

2009

-04#

2009

-06#

2009

-08#

2009

-10#

2009

-12#

2010

-02#

2010

-04#

2010

-06#

2010

-08#

2010

-10#

2010

-12#

2011

-02#

2011

-04#

2011

-06#

2011

-08#

2011

-10#

2011

-12#

2012

-02#

2012

-04#

2012

-06#

2012

-08#

Global(Internet(Trafic:(Mobile(vs.(Desktop(


58/137


59/137


60/137

TheyevenwatchmoviesandTV.

62%$

48%$

67%$

93%$

0%$

10%$

20%$

30%$

40%$

50%$

60%$

70%$

80%$

90%$

100%$

Desktop$ Smartphone$ Tablet$ Connected$TV$

PercentOfAllHoursWatched

Video'Length'

Time'Watched'By'Video'Length'And'Device'

>$10$min$ 6$to$10$min$ 3$to$6$min$ 1$to$3$min$


61/137

Especiallyatnight

0%#

1%#

2%#

3%#

4%#

5%#

6%#

7%#

8%#

9%#

10%#

0# 1# 2# 3# 4# 5# 6# 7# 8# 9# 10# 11# 12# 13# 14# 15# 16# 17# 18# 19# 20# 21# 22# 23#

ShareOfTotalTime

Watched

Time&Of&Day&

When&People&Watch&Mobile&Video,&By&Device&

Tablet#Weekday# Tablet#Weekend# Smartphone#Weekday# Smartphone#Weekend#

Source:(Ooyala(


62/137

TheyShopMobileaccountsfor20%ofGiltsweekdaysalesand30%of

itsweekendsales

-TheiPadaccountsfor40%of

mobilesales

38%ofU.S.consumershaveusedsmartphonestobuy

productsorservices

-comScore,Dec2011


63/137

Theyusesmartphonestomakebuyingdecisionsinstores.

19.7%&

18.8%&

20.4%&

14.6%&

13.1%&14.1%&

8.3%&

10.9%&

6.3%&

24.0%&

22.3%&

16.2%&

20.2%&

12.3%&

10.0%&

11.1%&

7.2%&

5.2%&

Took&Picture&Of&

Product&

Texted/Called&

Friends/Family&

About&Product&

Scanned&A&

Product&Barcode&

Sent&Picture&Of&

Products&To&

Family/Friends&

Found&Store&

LocaJon&

Compared&

Product&Prices&

Found&Coupons&

For&Deals&

Research&Product&

Features&

Checked&Product&

Availability&

U.S.$Smartphone$Owners$Ac3vity$In$Retail$Stores$

Males& Females&


64/137

Mobileisstartingtodrivesignificanttraffictoecommercesites

PC#

Tablet#Smartphone#

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012#

Ecommerce#Website#Traffic#By#Device#

Source:(Monetate(


65/137

TheypayforstuffPaypalsmobilepaymentsaregrowingrapidly

$0#

$1,000#

$2,000#

$3,000#

$4,000#

$5,000#

2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

Total##

Payment#

Volume#

(millions)#

PayPal#Mobile#Payments#Processed#


66/137

Squarelaunchedabouttwoyearsago,anditsalreadyprocessing$16+millionaday

Payment(Volume(

Revenues(

$0#

$2,000#

$4,000#

$6,000#

$8,000#

$10,000#

$12,000#

$14,000#

$16,000#

$18,000#

3/11# 4/11# 5/11# 6/11# 7/11# 8/11# 9/11# 10/11# 11/11# 12/11# 1/12# 2/12# 3/12# 4/12# 5/12# 6/12#

Thousands)

Square(Es9mated(Daily(Payment(Volume(and(Revenues(


67/137

Theyevenbuycontent!(0ntablets)

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

Downloaded#

Music#

Books# Movies# Magazines# TV#Shows# Streaming#

Radio#

Sports# News#

Media&Content&Paid&For&On&A&Tablet,&Q4&2011&

US# Italy# UK## Germany#

Source:(Nielsen(


68/137

Butthereallyinterestingstuffthatpeopledoonmobile

iswhatthey

DONTdoonline


69/137

Angrybirdshasover1billiondownloads

0"

100,000"

200,000"

300,000"

400,000"

500,000"

600,000"

700,000"

Mar"10" Jun"10" Sept"10" Dec"10" Mar"11" Jun"11" Sept"11" Dec"11"

Total&

Downloads&

Or&Sales&

(thousands)&

Angry&Birds&Downloads&vs.&Nintendo&DS&Sales&

Note:&Includes&Nintendo&3DS&Sales&

Source:Newreports,companyreleases,BIIntelligenceestimates


70/137

Instagramhit100millionusersin2years


71/137

BOTTOMLINE:

Thegrowthofmobile=more

Internetusage,newapplications


72/137

Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011

MobilemakesInternetusage24/7

ShareOfDevicePageTrafficOverADay:


73/137

Usageisupacrosstheboard

Sent%Text%Message%

Used%Browser%

Used%Downloaded%Apps%

Played%games%

Accessed%Social%Network%

Or%Blog%

Listened%to%music%%

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

Feb#

10#

Apr#

10#

May#

10#

Jun#

10#

Jul#

10#

Aug#

10#

Sept#

10#

Oct#

10#

Nov#

10#

Dec#

10#

Jan#

11#

Feb#

11#

Mar#

11#

Apr#

11#

May#

11#

Jun#

11#

Jul#

11#

Aug#

11#

Sept#

11#

Oct#

11#

Nov#

11#

Dec#

11#

Jan#

12#

Feb#

12#

Mar#

12#

Apr#

12#

May#

12#

June#

12#

July#

12#

ShareofmobilepopulaConthathas...

U.S.%Mobile%Content%Usage%

Source:(comScore(


74/137

Andpeopleareconsumingahugeamountofcontentthroughmobile

41%$

27%$ 26%$23%$

59%$

53%$

29%$ 29%$

22%$

9%$ 10%$ 9%$

5%$

57%$

53%$

25%$27%$

20%$

Books$ Movies$ TV$Shows$ Magazines$ News$ Social$

Networking$

Downloaded$

Music$

Sports$ Streaming$

Radio$

Media&Content&Accessed&Through&Mobile&Device&

Tablet$ Smartphone$

Source:(Nielsen(Q4(2011(Mobile(Connected(Device(Report(


75/137

Somobileadvertising

willbehuge,right?


76/137

Hmm


77/137

Thebullishmobile-adstoryisthehuge

gapbetweentime-spentandadspending.

42%$

25%$

22%$

11%$

1%$

43%$

7%$

26%$

15%$

10%$

TV$ Print$ Web$ Radio$ Mobile$

2011$U.S.$Ad$Spending$vs.$Consumer$Time$Spent$By$Media$

Ad$Spend$Per$Media$ Time$Spent$Per$Media$Source:MaryMeeker(KPCB),eMarketer,IAB


78/137

Butmaybetheresagoodreason

forthatgap


79/137

Thescreenisreallysmall.


80/137

Mobilemonetizationstillbehindthedesktop

$3.87& $5.00&

$17.61&

$6.62&

$25.00&

$58.95&

Pandora& Zynga& Tencent&

ARPU,&Desktop&vs.&Mobile&&

Mobile& Desktop&

Source:(Pandora,(Zynga,(Tencent(


81/137

MobileCPMsaremuchlower

$3.50&

$0.75&

Desktop&Internet& Mobile&Internet&

Effec%ve'CPM,'Desktop'vs.'Mobile'

Source:(comScore,(Vivaki,(Mobclix(Exchange(


82/137

IncludingforcompanieslikeGoogleandFacebook.

!15%

!10%

!5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

Google&CPC&Growth&

Source:(Company(data,(Evercore(Group(LLC(Research(


83/137

Overall,mobileisstillatinyfractionofdigitaladspending.

Mobile'

$0#

$5#

$10#

$15#

$20#

$25#

$30#

$35#

2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(billions)

U.S.'Digital'Adver7sing'Revenues'

Source:((IAB,(BIA-Kelsey,(BII(es2mates(


84/137

AnditsgrowingmuchslowerthanTV+Internetinthefirst5years

$358%

$1,012%

$2,162% $2,162%

$3,698%

$80%$160%

$392%

$806%

$1,171%

$55%

$267%

$907%

$1,920%

$4,621%

$0%

$500%

$1,000%

$1,500%

$2,000%

$2,500%

$3,000%

$3,500%

$4,000%

$4,500%

$5,000%

Year%1% Year%2% Year%3% Year%4% Year%5%

Compara've*U.S.*Adver'sing*Media*

Annual*$*Revenue*Growth*(First*5*Years)*

Broadcast%TV% Mobile% Internet%

Source:((IAB,(McCann1Erickson,(BIA1Kelsey,(BII(es9mates( Note:(Adjusted(for(infla9on(


85/137

Butokay,yes,mobileadsarejustgettingstarted(about~$1.25Blastyear)

Media&

Local&

$0#

$1,000#

$2,000#

$3,000#

$4,000#

$5,000#

$6,000#

$7,000#

2009A# 2010A# 2011A# 2012E# 2013E# 2014E# 2015E# 2016E# 2017E#

Mobile&Ad&

Revenue&

(millions)&

U.S.&Mobile&Ad&Forecast&

Wearehere


86/137

Bytheway,Googleownsmobile,too

Google&

Millennial&Media&

Pandora&

Apple&Yahoo&

Microso4&Other&

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

1Q09# 2Q09# 3Q09# 4Q09# 1Q10# 2Q10# 3Q10# 4Q10# 1Q11# 2Q11# 3Q11# 4Q11#

Mobile&Ad&Market&Share&

Source:(news(reports,(company(releases,(BII(es5mates(


87/137

Becausemobileadsaremainlyjustwebsearch+displayadsviewedonmobile

Search'

62%'

Display'

28%'

Messaging'

10%'

2011$Global$Mobile$Ad$Spend$By$Category$

Source:((IAB(


88/137

Butnativemobileadsarefinallybeginningtoappear

Adsintimelines(Twitter/Facebook) Geo-locatedads Shareableads


89/137

APPS


90/137

Appdownloadsaregrowingfrantically

0"

5,000,000,000"

10,000,000,000"

15,000,000,000"

20,000,000,000"

25,000,000,000"

30,000,000,000"

7/1/08

"

9/1/

08"

11/1/08"

1/1/09

"

3/1/

09"

5/1/09

"

7/1/09

"

9/1/

09"

11/1/09"

1/1/10

"

3/1/

10"

5/1/10

"

7/1/10

"

9/1/

10"

11/1/1

0"

1/1/11

"

3/1/

11"

5/1/11

"

7/1/11

"

9/1/

11"

11/1/1

1"

1/1/12

"

3/1/

12"

5/1/12

"

Apple%App%Store%Downloads%


91/137

Onpacetohit45billionbytheendoftheyear

0"

5,000,000,000"

10,000,000,000"

15,000,000,000"

20,000,000,000"

25,000,000,000"

30,000,000,000"

35,000,000,000"

40,000,000,000"

45,000,000,000"

50,000,000,000"

55,000,000,000"

1/1/11

"

2/1/11

"

3/1/11

"

4/1/11

"

5/1/11

"

6/1/11

"

7/1/11

"

8/1/11

"

9/1/11

"

10/1/11"

11/1/11"

12/1/11"

1/1/12

"

2/1/12

"

3/1/12

"

4/1/12

"

5/1/12

"

6/1/12

"

7/1/12

"

8/1/12

"

9/1/12

"

10/1/12"

11/1/12"

12/1/12"

1/1/13

"

Apple%App%Store%Downloads%


92/137

Peoplenowspendmoretimeonappsthantheydobrowsingtheweb

64#

70#74# 72#

43#

66#

81#

94#

June#2010# Dec#2010# June#2011# Dec#2011#

U.S.$Mobile$Apps$vs.$Web$Consump4on,$Minutes$Per$Day$

Web#browsing# Mobile#apps#

Source:(Flurry(Analy/cs,(Alexa,(comScore(


93/137

Andthedisparityisgrowing.

Mobile'Web''

Apps'

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

140"

Mar+11" Apr+11" May+11" Jun+11" Jul+11" Aug+11" Sep+11" Oct+11" Nov+11" Dec+11" Jan+12" Feb+12" Mar+12"

Minutes'Spent'

Per'Month'

(Biillions')'

Total'Time'Spent'Using'Mobile'Web'vs.'Apps'

Source:(Nielsen(Smartphone(Analy5cs(


94/137

Mobileapprevenueisgrowingfast,butstillrelativelysmall.

$0#

$500#

$1,000#

$1,500#

$2,000#

$2,500#

$3,000#

$3,500#

$4,000#

2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(millions)

Mobile)App)Revenue)

Source:(iSuppli,(Forrester(Research,(company(releases,(BII(es8mates(


95/137

F i i th d i t


96/137

Freemiumisthedominantbusinessmodel


97/137

Gamesarethebiggestmoneymakers


98/137

Mobilehasbecomeaplatformgame.


99/137

Platformmarketstendto

standardizearoundoneortwoplatforms.

i h bil i h


100/137

Rightnow,mobileisatwo-horserace.

Android'

Apple'iOS'

Blackberry'

Windows'

Other'

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q1#2009# Q2#2009# Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012#

Mobile'Pla:orm'Market'Share'

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates,(and(company(filings#

d id h h l l f l b ll


101/137

Androidhasthelargestplatformglobally.

Android'

Apple'

Symbian'

Blackberry'

Other'

Microso8'

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012#

Share'of'

Global'Unit'

Sales'

Smartphone'Market'Share'By'OS'(Global)'

Source:(Gartner(


102/137

ButAppleisdominatingapprevenue.

Apple%iOS%

Android%%

Other%

$0#

$500#

$1,000#

$1,500#

$2,000#

$2,500#

$3,000#

$3,500#

$4,000#

2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#

(millions)

Mobile%App%Revenue%By%Pla


103/137

Tabletmarketisearly,butalmosttotallydominatedbyApple

iPad%

Android%

Kindle%

Nook%Blackberry%

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012#

Tablet%Market%Share%By%OS%

Source:(Es+mates(based(on(informa+on(from(IDC,(Strategy(Analy+cs,(and(company(filings#


104/137

Mobileprofitsaregoingmainlytotwoplayers.

Apple%

Nokia%

Samsung%

RIM%

Motorola%

Sony%Ericsson%

LG%HTC%

!20%

!10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q12012 Q22012

Opera?ng%Profit%Share%By%Vendor%

Source:(Company(releases,(Canaccord(Genuity(es6mates(


105/137

BONUS:

So,areweinanewtechbubble?


106/137

No.


107/137

Bubblesfeaturesky-highprices

relativetofundamentals.

HOUSING BUBBLE P i ti


108/137

HOUSINGBUBBLE:Priceratiosspikedoffthecharts

Price-To-Rent: 1983-2012

STOCK BUBBLES: Price ratios


109/137

STOCKBUBBLES:Priceratiosspikedoffthecharts

S&P PE: 1885-2012

THIS Is A Bubble


110/137

THISIsABubble

NASDAQ,1991-2004


111/137

Do you see that pattern yoday?


112/137

Doyouseethatpatternyoday?

NASDAQ:1971-2012


113/137

Aretech-companypriceratiosoffthecharts?

No Apples PE ratio has been declining for years


114/137

No.Apple sPEratiohasbeendecliningforyears

Recent hot IPOs are downright reasonable


115/137

RecenthotIPOsaredownrightreasonable.

2XRevenue

1.4X2012ERevenue

4XRevenue

14XRevenue


116/137

WhataboutFacebook?


117/137

Facebookwentpublicatanextremelyhighprice

75XEPS


118/137

Why?


119/137

BecauseeveryonethoughtIPOmeantfreemoney.


120/137

Oops.

Investors learned a painful lesson


121/137

Investorslearnedapainfullesson.


122/137

ButFacebookstillhasanexcellentvaluation

45XEPS.


123/137

Sodontletanyonetellyouitscheap.


124/137

WhatshappeningtoFacebook

stock,bytheway,islikelya

commontransition


125/137

High-growthstocksusuallygo

throughamomentumphase,

inwhichtheyreblowingawayestimates.


126/137

Thengrowthslows,and

expectationscomeinlinewith

reality.


127/137

Microsoft has been in this transition since 2000


128/137

Microsofthasbeeninthistransitionsince2000.

Google since 2008


129/137

Googlesince2008


130/137

Multiplecompressioncanbe

followedbysteadygrowth

ordeath.

Amazon stock is back on themarch


131/137

Amazonstockisbackonthemarch.


132/137

Facebooksfutureisuncertain,

butitsagreatcompany,and

stockcouldreturntogrowth.

But for now multiple compression


133/137

But,fornow multiplecompression.


134/137

Oneareainwhichinvestorshavebeentooexuberant:

Theprivatemarket.


135/137


136/137

Thankyouverymuch.


137/137

Henry BlodgetFounder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief,

Business Insider

Alex Cocotas, Analyst

BI Intelligence is a new subscription research service from Business Insiderthat provides in-depth insight, data, and analysis of the mobile industry.

More info at intelligence.businessinsider.com

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