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EL12 The Earth’s Story

Lecture 3.5: Fast forward to the future

TopicsOverview

• Short- term forecast (100 years)

• Medium-term forecast (10s to 100s of thousands of years)

•  Long-term forecast (millions to billions of years)

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Quick Quiz

Is this statement True or False? The greenhouse effect is the same as global warming and it always spells trouble.

False: the natural greenhouse effect has made life on Earth possible. Its only when excess amounts of

CO2 enter the system that trouble follows.

KeyLectureLearningsKeyLearning#1:Intheshortterm(decadesto100years)theEarth

con@nuetowarmandifwedon’tstopburningfossilfuelssoon,wecouldsetoffa10,000yearglobalwarmingperiodwithtragicconsequences.Wearealsocrea@ngaglobalspeciesex@nc@oneventthroughourac@vi@es.But,thereareatleast10reasonstobeop@mis@c.

Key Learning #2: In the medium term (10s to 100s of thousands

of years), the Earth might begin to slide into another glaciation period, if we don’t keep CO2 levels above around 300 ppm (but not more than 400 ppm to avoid a global warming period!). We will need to become planetary stewards.

Key Learning #3: In the very long-term, the Earth’s continents

will shift around, climate will change with or without us. The Earth will likely dry up in 1.5 billion years and be completely destroyed in 4-5 billion years! But new planets and life may emerge from the ashes.

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KeyLectureLearningsKeyLearning#1:Intheshortterm(decadesto100years)theEarth

con@nuetowarmandifwedon’tstopburningfossilfuelssoon,wecouldsetoffa10,000yearglobalwarmingperiodwithtragicconsequences.Wearealsocrea@ngaglobalspeciesex@nc@oneventthroughourac@vi@es.But,thereareatleast10reasonstobeop@mis@c.

Key Learning #2: In the medium term (10s to 100s of thousands

of years), the Earth might begin to slide into another glaciation period, if we don’t keep CO2 levels above around 300 ppm (but not more than 400 ppm to avoid a global warming period!). We will need to become planetary stewards.

Key Learning #3: In the very long-term, the Earth’s continents

will shift around, climate will change with or without us. The Earth will likely dry up in 1.5 billion years and be completely destroyed in 4-5 billion years! But new planets and life may emerge from the ashes.

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Projected global average surface temperature change

All Figures © IPCC 2013

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Safe 2oC path

Dangerous Path 3.2 to 5.4oC

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Observed emissions and emissions scenarios

The emission pledges submitted to the Paris climate summit avoid the worst effects of climate change (red), most studies suggest a likely temperature increase of about 3°C (brown)

Over1000scenariosfromtheIPCCFiOhAssessmentReportareshownSource:Fussetal2014;CDIAC;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Safe path

2020

Pea

k?

2050

Pea

k?

Warmingwilllikelycon@nueforcenturies

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•  Assumingweburnedallremainingfossilfuelsoverthenext400years,whatwouldhappen?

•  Asystem@ppingpointwouldlikebereachedandtherewouldbenogoingback.

•  TheworldwouldlikelyreturntoaCretaceous-like(100millionyearsago)“hothouse”withCO2concentra@ons=2,100ppm(now400ppm)

•  Howmuchofhumanitywouldactuallysurvivesuchaclimatehothouse(>10oCmorethancurrent)ishighlyuncertain….

•  Howbigofamassex@nc@onwouldbiodiversitymorebroadlysuffer?

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What’s the worst case scenario look like?

What are the risks of exceeding 2oC?

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Futurewarming&precipita@onchanges

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Futuresealevelrise(notcoun@ngglacialicemel@ng)

12 http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=43.3251,-101.6015&z=13&m=7

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But, the geological record suggests otherwise when you consider glacial ice melting!

Oceans are soaking up excess CO2 from the atmosphere – but are

becoming more acidic. Impact to shelled organisms.

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Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extentAll Figures © IPCC 2013

Climate change affects organisms and ecosystems

•  Global warming modifies temperature-dependent phenomena –  Timing of migration, breeding

•  Spatial shifts in the range of organisms –  Animals and plants will move

towards the poles or upward in elevation

–  20-30% of all species will be threatened with extinction

•  Plants act as carbon sinks; fewer plants means more CO2 in the atmosphere 15-16

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Temperature increase and cumulative carbon emissions

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Safe 2oC path

Current Path 3.2 to 5.4oC

http://www.planetseed.com/relatedarticle/climate-challenge-our-choices

Impacts to soil moisture and agriculture

Soil moisture 30 cm below ground projected through 2100 for high emissions scenario RCP 8.5. The soil moisture data are standardized to the Palmer Drought Severity Index and are deviations from the 20th century average. Credits: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Soil moisture 30 cm below ground projected through 2100 for moderate emissions scenario RCP 4.5. The soil moisture data are standardized to the Palmer Drought Severity Index and are deviations from the 20th century average. Credits: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

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Probability of heat waves likely to increase

(Frequency) •  If we exceed the 2oC average

global temperatures, the probability of heat waves will increase in N. America.

•  I in 20 year events will become 1 in 3 or, in some regions, every year events.

•  Deaths from heat waves will increase especially among the poor, elderly and young who are the most vulnerable – and often do not have access to A/C.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009]

Strom, 2007: Hot House

Abrupt Climate Change:

a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few

decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few

decades and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural

systems

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Abruptchange,threshold’s&5ppingpoints:Non-linearirreversiblechange-Arc5c

mel5ngfasterthanexpected

IPCC, 2013

Arctic Ice Tipping Point?

Optimistic sign #1: Agreement on a new UN climate treaty in 2015

•  Most countries have made some kind of GHG reduction “pledge”

•  Agreement to keep warming well below 2oC warming

•  More money for developing countries is part of the deal (U.S. contributes $3B to Green Fund)

•  Only parts of the treaty are legally binding.

•  Assuming all pledges are met, this will not meet the requirement for keeping warming below 2oC warming

•  Provisions in the Paris Treaty to have countries ramp up their pledges on a periodic basis.

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Optimistic sign #2: China/U.S. deal on climate change (Nov. 2014)

•  China and the U.S. - 60% of total GHG emissions

•  China set a target for its GHG output to peak "around 2030”

•  U.S. to cut its own GHGs by 26 to 28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025

•  U.S. Senate recently voted to affirm that climate change is real, but many Republicans are firmly against taking any action that would hurt the economy.

•  Presidential election issue for Democrats – not so much for the Republicans!

•  Donald Trump: I think that climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. A lot of people are making a lot of money. I know much about climate change - "I've received many environmental awards. And I often joke that this is done for the benefit of China — obviously I joke — but this done for the benefit of China."

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama

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Optimistic sign #4: Energy - demand for oil & gasoline going down (at least in N. America)

Causes? •  Millennial

lifestyle choices •  EV’s coming

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Op5mis5csign#5:Energy–Lifestylechoicesbymillennialgenera5on.

•  IncreasingtrendamongMillennialsistoliveandworkinurbancenters–theydon’tdriveasmuch.

•  Thefurtheryouchoosetolivefromyourjob:–  Lesslikelyyouwillwalk,busorridea

bike(health,wallet,greenbenefits).–  Morelikelyyouwilldrive,addingto

overallfossilfuelenergyuse,emissions,highwayinfrastructure,highgasolinecosts.

•  Globally,theworldisincreasinglymovingtoci@es

Optimistic sign #6: Changing Demographics:

social behavior, values of Millennials.

•  Different values –  advocate for the environment and

social justice & passionate about making a difference in the world.

•  Sharing Commons –  greater sharing of cars/bike sharing that

reduces the demand for cars and gasoline –  Up-cycling – sharing stuff you don’t want

anymore

•  Social Media Activism –  social media campaigns that rate poor &

good carbon reduction performing companies.

–  Active boycotts against high carbon companies.

–  Buy-cotting that buy from ethical firms – tech enabled.

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Optimistic sign #7: Extreme weather events are increasing, financial impacts growing &

human suffering increasing (macabre catalysts for action).

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https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/earths-29-billiondollar-weather-disasters-of-2015-4th-most-on-recor

Optimistic sign #8: Energy - N. America moving away from coal and cost of renewables is declining significantly

A “wave of bankruptcies”

are hitting the coal industry

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Optimistic Sign #9: Energy - Carbon Divesture Movement is Catching On

•  Grass-roots movement among universities, pension funds, religious groups, to pressure financial managers to sell their carbon assets.

•  All of us can de-carbonize our investment portfolio!

•  Past time to dump coal stocks

•  Still time to dump oil and gas stocks?

Optimistic Sign #10 Wildcard events always happen in adaptive complex systems

•  Low probability/high impact events or technologies are often a product of complex systems – Black Swan events.

•  Things we can’t imagine that make big differences in the direction complex systems take…

9/11 put N. America catapulted security concerns – personal

freedoms lost

Henry Ford’s Model T changed transportation

The Internet of Things & The rise of computers

3D printing could revolutionize Transportation networks

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Population fertility -mortality

GDP

food, water agriculture,

aquaculture

economy energy GHG

urbanization

land

water Climate and nat. system change

Earth

Ocean

Atmosphere

Biosphere

Anthropogenic system

Earth’s climate system

Complex Systems: Non-Adaptive Earth’s Climate System

Adaptive Anthropogenic System

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Anthropogenic system 32

Energy Conversion Technologies

Energy Markets: Global

Supply/Demand

Energy Resources

(renewable & non-renewable)

Energy Investments

Energy Resource Processes

(Extraction & Upgrading)

Drift change

Sustainable E

nergy R

evolutions

Energy Infrastructure

Energy Complex Sub-System

Energy Carriers

& Storage

Environmental (air, water,

land)

Energy End-Use

Customers

Drift change

Unsustainable

Energy

Revolution

Energy R&D

Status Quo

The Change Model as an

emergent property

Difficult to predict outcomes –

adaptive behavior No one’s in charge!

Role of Government

Policy & subsidies

Externalities: Climate Impacts

The energy sub-system as the crux of the climate change problem

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•  Yougetacrazyitch.•  Signalistransmihedto

yourbrainupyourspinalcord(INFORMATION)

•  Thissetsoffacascadingseriesofneuralpathwaysthatfire(CHEMICALIONS)

•  Thesesignalsbouncearoundinyourbrainforawhileun@lan“emergent”responseresults(DECISION)

•  Youscratchtheitchlikecrazyinresponse!(ATPenergyexpenditure)33

Signalinginyourbrain–ananalogyforenergysystemsignaling

Energy Conversion Technologies

Energy Markets: Global

Supply/Demand

Externalities: Climate Impacts

Energy Resources

(renewable & non-renewable)

Energy Investments

Energy Resource Processes

(Extraction & Upgrading)

Drift change

Sustainable E

nergy R

evolutions

Energy Infrastructure

subsystem

Energy Carriers

& Storage

Environmental (air, water,

land)

Energy End-Use

Customers

Drift change

Unsustainable

Energy

Revolution

Energy R&D

Status Quo

Signaling in the Anthropogenic energy sub-system Where is the sustainable energy pathway?

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Information

Decisions

Cash $

Role of Government

Policy & subsidies

Information

Information

Information

Decisions

Decisions

??

E.G. we develop an economic “itch”& signals are sent throughout the

system

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Ab

Drift change

Sustainable E

nergy R

evolutions

Future Change

Drift change

Unsustainable

Energy

Revolution

Status Quo

Anthrosphere Adaptive

Complex System

Factors and probabilities as to how our Energy/climate future may unfold

Towards Fossil Fuels New supply of oil (fracking),

sustained or strong economic growth; subsidies for fossil fuels;

slow policy action on climate change, new fossil fuel

technologies, developing world demand for energy

Towards Green New UN treaty, U.S./China action,

declining cost of renewables, Millennial values, reduced demand

for oil, extreme weather, grass-roots actions, carbon divestures.

Short Group Discussion:

Are you personally confident that the climate change issue will be solved such that any children, grandchildren, nieces/nephews you have will be safe?

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KeyLectureLearningsKeyLearning#1:Intheshortterm(decadesto100years)theEarth

con@nuetowarmandifwedon’tstopburningfossilfuelssoon,wecouldsetoffa10,000yearglobalwarmingperiodwithtragicconsequences.Wearealsocrea@ngaglobalspeciesex@nc@oneventthroughourac@vi@es.But,thereareatleast10reasonstobeop@mis@c.

Key Learning #2: In the medium term (10s to 100s of thousands

of years), the Earth might begin to slide into another glaciation period, if we don’t keep CO2 levels above around 300 ppm (but not more than 400 ppm to avoid a global warming period!). We will need to become planetary stewards.

Key Learning #3: In the very long-term, the Earth’s continents

will shift around, climate will change with or without us. The Earth will likely dry up in 1.5 billion years and be completely destroyed in 4-5 billion years! But new planets and life may emerge from the ashes.

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Medium Term: changes in insolation received on Earth, matter

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Medium Term: Glacial Cycles & Climate Change

•  Causes –  Ice-core records show fluctuation of greenhouse gasses with glacial-

interglacial cycles –  #1: CO2 decrease in cold glacial – taken up by cold oceans. +

feedback loop enhances cooling –  #2: CO2 increase in warm interglacial – helps drive warming started by

orbital variations. + feedback loop.

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Ruddiman, 2005 Strength of the greenhouse effect vs.

the Milankovitch orbital cooling. •  Normally, once a

certain T and/or CO2 threshold was passed, we would have been committed to another glaciation

•  Activities like wars and pandemics might push us towards a cooling event.

•  Continued use of fossil fuels would push us towards a warming event.

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Ruddiman, 2005

300 ppm

Key conclusions from the IPCC (AR5, 2013) on Paleoclimates

•  There is high confidence that annual mean

surface warming since the 20th century has reversed long-term cooling trends of the past 5,000 years in mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

•  It is virtually certain that orbital forcing will be unable to trigger widespread glaciation during the next 1,000 years.

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Evidence of our existence long after we have disappeared

Rover missions to Mars

Apollo 11: Sea of Tranquillity Apollo 12: Ocean of Storms Apollo 14: Fra Mauro Apollo 15: Hadley-Apennine Apollo 16: Decartes Apollo 17: Taurus-Littrow

Voyager missions explore the solar system

Radio & TV signals from Earth to space for over

75 years – are you listening ET?

Technofossils

Home sapiens as a distinct species for about 200,00 years so far.

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Bio-technological evolution will probably outpace natural

selection in humans •  Neural implants,

heart tech, becoming more common.

•  We will take charge of our own evolution.

True for False?

Based on the latest science, it now seems likely that in the next 1,000 years the Earth will slide into an ice age again.

False: because we have raised CO2 concentration well above 300 ppm it now seems virtually certain that we will NOT go into another ice age for at least 1,000 years.

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KeyLectureLearningsKeyLearning#1:Intheshortterm(decadesto100years)theEarth

con@nuetowarmandifwedon’tstopburningfossilfuelssoon,wecouldsetoffa10,000yearglobalwarmingperiodwithtragicconsequences.Wearealsocrea@ngaglobalspeciesex@nc@oneventthroughourac@vi@es.But,thereareatleast10reasonstobeop@mis@c.

Key Learning #2: In the medium term (10s to 100s of thousands

of years), the Earth might begin to slide into another glaciation period, if we don’t keep CO2 levels above around 300 ppm (but not more than 400 ppm to avoid a global warming period!). We will need to become planetary stewards.

Key Learning #3: In the very long-term, the Earth’s continents

will shift around, climate will change with or without us. The Earth will likely dry up in 1.5 billion years and be completely destroyed in 4-5 billion years! But new planets and life may emerge from the ashes.

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Plate tectonics will continue

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A large supercontinent will likely form again – climates will change again

The far distant evolution of our Sun

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1.5 Billion years AD: The Earth’s water boils away as the

Sun’s output increases by 10%!

5 Billion AD: Earth is either swallowed up by the Sun or becomes a lifeless husk

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12 Billion years AD: Star nurseries form again!

Roughly 12.4 billion years from now, the sun has blown off its outer layers. A shimmering planetary nebula now expands like a soap bubble around the tiny remnant of the sun's core, seen here from a distant Kuiper Belt Object.

And….perhaps life will evolve again!

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And on that happy note…..

This concludes The Earth’s Story!

Thanks for your rapt

attention....