elaine wong a race to the finish
DESCRIPTION
2012 Women Leaders ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
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A Race to the Finish: Decision Making in Groups and Teams
Elaine M. WongDepartment of Communication
UW-Milwaukee
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Overview
• Decision making (DM) models
• DM in teams: Carter racing exercise
• Debrief and discuss problems team DM
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Rational Decision Making Models
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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What kinds of assumptions do rational theorists make?
• People are “rational”• Use information optimally• Driven by outcomes, consumption• Framing does not matter• People know their preferences, preferences
do not change• Probabilities can be calculated
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Factors affecting decisions in organizations
Individual Level•Decision making styles•Cognitive limitations•Past experience
Group Level•Group effectiveness •Group composition•Group processes
Organizational Level•System complexity•Time pressure•Politics
Decision
Uncertainty
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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March & Simon’s Administrative Model
• Based on observations that people– have limited skills – are subject to cognitive biases– rarely have accurate and complete information– in short, assumes bounded rationality
• Satisficing decisions– Select an acceptable solution
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Carter Racing
• Your dilemma: Should Carter Racing take part in the Pocono race?– Read case– Write down individual decision to race or not
(provide justification- 5 min.)– Get into groups and reach a group decision to
race or not (provide justification- 20-25 min.)
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Carter Racing: push and pull factorsPros
-prize money from race-gain a new sponsor(Goodstone tires)-have the money to put out
another car to their racing team
Cons
-if race and fail:-lose tire sponsorship-need to replace $20K engine-lose oil contract -wasted entry fees
-if withdraw without racing-lose $7,500 of entry fee-lose potential sponsorship with Goodstone and need to return money-end season with $ 50K deficit© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Relationship between temperature and gasket failures
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees)
Hea
d G
aske
t F
ailu
res
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Ambient temperature for races without blown gaskets
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees)
Nu
mb
er o
f R
aces
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Races with and without gasket failures
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Ambient air temperature (in degrees)
Nu
mb
er o
f in
cid
ents
gasket failures no gasket failures
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Why your decision matters…
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Cognitive biases in DM groups
• Confirmation bias– Tendency to search for information that
substantiates currently-held beliefs/goals.• Availability bias
– Overestimating the frequency of vivid, extreme or recent events and causes
• Representative bias– Failure to take into account base rates and
overestimating the likelihood of rare events
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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More cognitive biases!
• Anchoring and adjustment– Inappropriate decisions when initial amounts are
too high or low• Groupshift
– Tendency to exaggerate one’s initial position• Groupthink
– When a group’s norm for consensus overrides the realistic appraisal of alternatives
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Social problems in DM groups
• Production blocking– Having to wait your turn to voice your ideas
• Evaluation apprehension– Worried about how others will evaluate your ideas
• Free riding/social loafing– The larger the group, the less individual effort
exerted.• Conflict
– Task: regarding how to approach the task– Emotional: typically based on value differences
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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Improving group DM
• Generate more alternatives– Brainstorming
• 1) Don't allow criticism; • 2) Encourage wild ideas; • 3) Go for quantity; • 4) Combine and/or improve on others' ideas.
– Nominal group technique• Go it alone first!
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
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More on improving group DM
• Generate task conflict– Minority dissent
• Alternative perspective to majority views enhances divergent thinking at the subconscious level.
– Devil’s advocate• Force the group to consider alternative solutions.
© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee