Big Shift or Big Return? Visible Minority Representation in the

2015 ElectionAndrew Griffith

Metropolis Toronto 5 March 2016

Agenda• Riding portrait

• Candidates

• MPs Elected

• Over/under representation

• 33 Visible Majority Ridings

• MP comparison

• Implications

2

Methodology

• NHS and Elections Canada data

• Mix of names, photos, MP profiles, Parliamentary website

• Number of visible minority citizens (15 %), not total population (19 %)

3

Concentration vs Dispersion 2015 Electoral Ridings View of Ethnic Enclaves

50

100

150

200

Ethnic Origin Visible Minorities Religious Minorities015

35218

67

42

77

144

11293

65

182

135

27

< 5% 5-20% 20-50% 50-70% 70% plus4

Growth in Candidates 2015 Visible Minority 2004 - 2015 Elections

5%

9%

14%

18%

Citizens Lib CPC NDP BQ2004 2006 2008 2011 2015

5

2015 Candidates

6

PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CANDIDATES 2015 ELECTION

13%

25%

38%

50%

Liberal CPC NDP Green Bloc

28%

39%43%

20%

31%

3%

11%13%13%

17%

Visible Minorities Women

15%

30%

45%

60%

Citizens Overall Liberal Cabinet CPC NDP Other

27%

41%

17%

48%

27%26%

51%

0%5%6%

16%

21%

14%15%

Visible Minorities Women7

2015 Elections

13%

25%

38%

50%

Visible Minority Women

50%

0%

45%

3%

13%13%

35%

9%

34%

24%

50%

17%

Liberal Cabinet Liberal PS or Equiv CPC Critics CPC Dep CriticsNDP Critics NDP Dep Critics 8

Cabinet and Critics

10%

20%

30%

40%

Women Visible Minority Indigenous

0%

7%

39%

0%2%

19%

5%

22%22%

Liberal Conservative NDP9

Parliamentary Committees Membership 2016 as Share of Caucus

10%

20%

30%

40%

Women Visible Minority

4%

36%

0%

12%

4%

24%

Liberal Chair CPC Vice-Chair NDP Vice-Chair10

Committee Chairs 2016 Liberal Only

Visible Minority MPs Gender and Party

11

VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 % VISIBLE MINORITIES

8

17

25

33

Liberal Conservative NDP

2

1

12

5

27

Men Women

Over/Under Representation Compared to Visible Minority Citizens

12

1.8%

3.5%

5.3%

7.0%

South Asian Chinese West Asian Black Arab L American SE Asian

Percentage Total MPs Percentage Total Citizens

Cabinet• Gender parity (15 men, 15 women, plus PM)

• But all 5 supporting ministers, 1 of whom visible minority

• 5 Visible Minority Ministers • 3 men, 2 women • 3 foreign-born • 4 Sikh, 1 Muslim

• 2 Aboriginal (1 woman, 1 man, latter resigned)

• 2 Persons with Disabilities (1 woman, 1 man)

• Diversity and Inclusion committee

13

Parliamentary Secretaries, Other

• 35, of which 12 women (34 percent)

• 8 visible minority (23 percent) • 6 men, 3 women • 6 foreign-born • 3 Black, 3 South Asian (2 Sikh), 1 Chinese, 1 Arab, 1 Latin American

• 1 Aboriginal woman

• Other • Government whips, gender parity but no visible minority • House leaders, 2 men, 1 visible minority (Chinese)

14

Aboriginal Peoples

• 54 Aboriginal candidates (5.3 %)

• 10 elected MPs (3.0 %), up from 7 (2.3 %), compared to 4 % of the population

• 8 Liberal, 2 NDP

• Increase in Aboriginal vote

15

‘Big Shift’ - Not so fast

• Outreach — ‘showing up’ — not enough

• Policies matter: citizenship and immigration restrictions

• Wedge politics weaker than broader values

• Overall campaign message vs boutique politics

16

Conclusion• All parties compete for ethnic votes

• Greater efforts to recruit visible minorities

• Visible minorities well-represented

• But variance among different groups

• Limits to identity/wedge politics

17

Andrew Griffith

Email: agriffith232@gmail.comTwitter: @andrew_griffithLinkedIn: andrewlgriffithFacebook: Andrew Griffith C&MBlog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com

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