2016 Election Update

Mark Cribben, JDDirector FamMedPACManager Grassroots

State of the Presidential Race

While the President has seen his approval ratings rise, boding well for Clinton, most still believe that the nation is on the wrong track, giving hope to Donald Trump’s campaign.

Hillary Clinton took the lead over Donald Trump around Memorial Day, however both candidates continue to be among the least favorable candidates in history.

General Election Polling

Clinton Trump48.5% 42.2%

51.5%

“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are on the wrong track?”

■ Right Direction ■ Wrong Track

President Obama has seen his approval ratings consistently rise since Christmas 2015. In December his approval rating was averaging at about 43%.

Presidential Approval Rating

Series10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

29.2

64.7

Right DirectionWrong Track

WHO WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY?

Polls-plus forecastHillary Clinton: 83.5% Donald Trump: 16.4%

Polls-only forecastHillary Clinton: 86.2% Donald Trump: 13.8%

Now-castHillary Clinton: 86.5% Donald Trump: 13.5%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Presidential Battleground States

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2016: Enormous Stakes for Healthcare

If Clinton Wins:• Gridlock; R’s likely to keep House• ACA protected from repeal by veto• Passing “fixes” to ACA also unlikely• Crack down on drug price increases

If Trump Wins:• Republicans keep House & Senate• ACA repeal through reconciliation?• GOP may not agree on replacement• Leave Medicaid expansion to states• Reduce barriers to entry for new

pharma

Presidential candidates’ health care stances generally adhere to respective party lines

Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Julie Edgar, “Health Care Reform: Health Insurance & Affordable Care Act,” WebMD, May 20, 2016; "Annotated Transcript: The Aug. 6 GOP Debate", Washington Post, August 6, 2015.

Affordable Care Act Single-Payer Medicare Medicaid Abortion

Keep Expand Expand Supports

Replace Keep Keep Ban

Overview of candidates’ stances on major health care legislation

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Presidential candidates’ stances on health policy span political spectrum

Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Alan Rappeport and Margot Sanger-Katz, "Hillary Clinton Takes a Step to the Left on Health Care," New York Times, May 10, 2016.

Health Care Program Clinton Trump

Affordable Care Act (ACA) Preserve & Build Repeal & Replace

Prescription Drug Prices Control drug prices & hold drug companies accountable. Lower barriers to trade to allow drug makers

from overseas to sell in the U.S.

Medicaid Expansion Support new incentives to encourage states to expand ? Unclear, Trump proposes state block-grants for

Medicaid

Medicare Buy-In Supports people 50+ to be able to purchase Medicare coverage ? Unknown, Trump promised to improve Medicare

by making “the country rich”

Public Option Supports public option, suggests state initiatives under ACA Does not support

Mental Health Parity Wants mental health parity with physical health issues Supports current reform plan in Congress

Provider Price Transparency Would expand disclosure requirements Require transparency from doctors and hospitals

Sale of Health Insurance Across State Lines ? Early 2015 Clinton expressed an open mind, not

currently in her platform Allow health insurance to be sold across state lines

Details on 2016 presidential candidates’ platforms on health care

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Breakdown of 2016 Senate RacesCook Political Report Rating

Re pub lic ans de fend ing 24 seats, sev en in states that Obama car ried in 2012

7 of 24 Republican Senate SeatsConsidered Toss Up This Cycle

Rubio (FL)Kirk (IL)

IN (Coats)Ayotte (NH)

Portman (OH)Toomey (PA)Johnson (WI)

1 of 10 Democratic Senate SeatsConsidered a Toss Up This Cycle

NV (Reid)

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2016 2018 2020

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8

22

10

24

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Democrats, Republicans Will Take Turns Playing Defense in Elections Ahead

Senate Seats in Play, by Election Year■ Republican Seats ■ Democratic Seats

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FLORIDA

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 74.5% Trump 25.5%RCP Average: Clinton +3.8Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Incumbent

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D)

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Rubio +4.8Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Rubio has 75.4% chance of winning

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ILLINOISPresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 99.1% Trump 0.9%RCP Average: Clinton +15Senate RaceRCP: Leans Dem; Duckworth +7Cook: Lean DFiveThirtyEight: Duckworth has 88.9% chance of winning

Sen. Mark Kirk (R) Incumbent

Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D)

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INDIANA

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Bayh +4.3Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Bayh has a 69% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 15.3% Trump 84.6%RCP Average: Trump +5

Evan Bayh (D) Former Senator

Rep. Todd Young (R)

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Hassan +2Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Hassan has a 65.8% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 86.8% Trump 13.1%RCP Average: Clinton +8Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) Incumbent

Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)

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OHIO

Senate RaceRCP: Likely GOP; Portman +15.8Cook: Lean RFiveThirtyEight: Portman has a 96.1% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 61.7% Trump 38.3%RCP Average: Trump +0.6Sen. Rob Portman (R)

Incumbent

Ted Strickland (D) Former Governor

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PENNSYLVANIA

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Toomey: +1.8Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: McGinty has 54.2% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 87.9% Trump 12.0%RCP Average: Clinton +6.2Sen. Pat Toomey

(R) Incumbent

Katie McGinty (D)

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WISCONSIN

Senate RaceRCP: Leans Dem; Feingold +5.3Cook: Lean DFiveThirtyEight: Feingold has a 93.2% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 89.6% Trump 10.4%RCP Average: Clinton +7

Sen. Ron Johnson (R) Incumbent

Russ Feingold (D) Former Senator

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North Carolina

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Burr +2.8Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Burr has a 57.9% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 70.1% Trump 29.9%RCP Average: Clinton +2.5Sen. Richard Burr (R)

Incumbent

Deborah Ross (D)

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NEVADA

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Cortez Masto +2.3Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Cortez Masto has a 56.6% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 72.4% Trump 27.6%RCP Average: Clinton +4.2

Rep. Joe Heck, DO (R)

Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

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OTHERS RACES TO WATCHMISSOURIARIZON

A

Senate RaceRCP: Likely GOP; McCain +16Cook: Lean RFiveThirtyEight: McCain has 93.1% chance of winning

Senate RaceRCP: Toss Up; Blunt +1.0Cook: Toss UpFiveThirtyEight: Kander has a 58.2% chance of winning

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 56% Trump 44%RCP Average: Clinton 1.3%

PresidentialFiveThirtyEight: Clinton 21.8% Trump 78.2%RCP Average: Trump +6.7

Sen. John McCain (R) I Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Sen. Roy Blunt (R) I Jason Kander (D)

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NV

CA

AZ

COUT

VA

TX

FL

MIWI

MN

IL

IANE

As few as 37 House races could be close in 2016

PA

NY

ME

NH

NJ

MI-01MI-07MN-03WI-08

MN-02MN-08

IA-01IA-03IL-10NE-02

Midwest

■ Lean Democratic ■ Toss Up ■ Lean Republican

Competitive* 2016 House races, by status of race

Southeast

Northeast

CA-07CA-24NV-04

AZ-01CA-25CO-06NV-03

CA-10CA-21CA-49UT-04

West

*Competitive in this presentation refers to toss up and lean races

Source: The Cook Political Report, 2016.

FL-07FL-18FL-26TX-23

VA-10 FL-13

ME-02NY-19NY-22PA-08

NJ-05NY-01NY-23NY-24

NH-01NY-03

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Republicans Have More at Stake in 2016, But Aren’t Expected to See Big Losses in the House

17 GOP House Seats are Rated as Toss Up RacesFor the 2016 Election

2 Democratic House Seats are Rated as Toss Up RacesFor the 2016 Elections

CA-10 Denham IL-10 Dold NY-19 OPEN CA-25 Knight IA-01 Blum NY-22 OPEN CA-49 Issa ME-02 Poliquin PA-08 OPEN CO-06 Coffman MN-02 OPEN VA-10 Comstock FL-07 Mica NV-03 OPEN TX-23 Hurd FL-26 Curbelo NJ-05 Garrett

FL-18 OPEN NE-02 Ashford

Demo crats need a net gain of 30 seats in the House, there are cur rently only 37 com pet it ive races, in clud ing six that are now held by Demo crats. To cap ture a ma jor ity, Demo crats would need to win all six com pet it ive races that are cur rently rated as “Lean Demo crat” in The Cook Polit ic al Re port, all 18 races that are rated as “Toss Ups,” and 11 of the 13 races in the “Lean Re pub lic an” cat egory.

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