Elections and Voting Systemsin France: Majority Rules Indeed!

By Eric Sautedé, University of Saint Joseph (Macao)Seminar on Moving towards Universal SuffrageCity University of Hong Kong, January 11th 2014

Seminar jointly organized by the Power for Democracy, SynergyNet, Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union and the Democratic Party.

Introduction

• Many elections in France: municipal, regional council, general council, senatorial, legislative, presidential, for referenda and of course European...

• Debate around universal suffrage dates back to the Revolution, but first full universal suffrage for the national assembly in 1848.

• Semi-presidential system is established with the 5th Republic (1958), and especially after the referendum of 1962 that establishes the direct election through universal suffrage of the President. Only “semi” as the Prime minister is chosen by the president from the majority in the National Assembly. Both the two previous Republic, the 3rd (1870-1940) and the 4th (1945-1958) were parliamentary.

• Mandate for president used to be 7 years and changed to a 5-year term for the election of 2002. That was meant to shorten and re-legitimize the grab on power of the president (François Mitterrand did two terms, and thus 14 years and was very sick at the end) and to make the president’s term and the legislators’ term congruent. Moreover, it minimized the risk of cohabitation [1986-8/1997-2002].

• Still, issues with the shared prerogatives between the President and the Prime minister; and does not obliterate the legitimacy issue [see CEVIPOF’s studies].

Historical perspective about universal suffrage

Universal suffrage (men only) in 1848 (2nd Republic) for legislative elections. Censitary/census suffrage before: 246,000 people voting out of 36 million French in 1847.

Speech by Clemenceau (1909): “Traditionally, I have always been in favor of a list system... but only when the administrative reform will have been achieved.”

Women suffrage introduced by law between 1919 and 1940 (≠ Senate), but only effective in 1944.

Administrative organization of France

Main voting systems in France (direct elections only)

• presidential election (universal suffrage since 1962): two-round majority system (top-two runoff), whole territory, only the 2 highest vote-getters stay on for second round unless one got an absolute majority in the first round, 5-year mandate (since 2002);

• legislative elections (universal suffrage since 1848): two-round majority system, 2 rounds, 577 constituencies, threshold for 2nd round=12.5% of registered voters, 5-year;

• European elections (universal suffrage since 1979): proportional method according to highest average (without vote-splitting or preferential vote), 1 round, 8 “regions” (74 seats altogether), min. 5% of the vote cast, 5-year;

• Regional council elections (universal suffrage since 1986): proportional method with a majority bonus (additional 25% of the seats), 2 rounds (since 1999), regions with sections of departments, fusion: ≥5% of vote cast, 2nd round: ≥10% of vote cast, representation: ≥5% of the vote cast, 6-year;

• General council elections: two-round majority system (top-two runoff), “canton” constituency, 6-year;

• Municipal council elections (for municipalities above 1,000 inhabitants): proportional method with a majority bonus (50% of seats for the highest vote-getter list), 2 rounds, municipality, fusion: ≥5% of vote cast, 2nd round: ≥10% of vote cast, ≥5% of the vote cast, 6-year;

Presidential elections: main features

• Fifth Republic (1958) institutes a semi-presidential system, but the president is originally elected by an electoral college composed of around 82,000 elected officials (legislators, senators, council and municipal councilors). This will be changed by referendum in October 1962 (approved by 62.3% of the voters) and Charles de Gaulle was the first one elected according to the new system in 1965. At the time, François Mitterrand, former minister and future socialist president of the Republic, characterized the referendum as unconstitutional. Yet Mitterrand ran against De Gaulle in 1965 and was even able to deny him a victory in the first round, contrary to what many believed would happen.

• voting system: two-round majority system (top-two runoff), 2 rounds, whole territory, only the 2 highest vote-getters stay on for second round unless one got an absolute majority in the first round, 5-year mandate (since 2002);

• who can run: French who is 18 and with his civil rights; candidacy endorsed by 500 elected officials (about 145,000 people), coming from at least 30 different departments or overseas territories, and a maximum of 10% can be from the same department or territory. The names are publicly disclosed.

• High turnout: 70-80% [2012=80%]

Parliamentary elections: main features

• Many voting systems since the inception of universal suffrage in 1848: 16 different systems, starting from a general ticket system (scrutin de liste majoritaire) with the 2nd Republic (1848-1852); a two-round uninominal majority system during the 2nd Empire (1852-1870) and most of the 3rd Republic (1870-1940), with a mix system between 1919-1928; a proportional system or mix system during the 4th Republic (1945-1958), known for its governmental instability; and mainly a two-round majority system during the 5th Republic (1958 onward), except for a short proportional spell for the 1986 elections (that allowed the National Front to gain 35 seats).

• Voting system today: two-round majority system, 577 constituencies (about 100,000 people, voted and validated in 2010, including 11 legislators for French leaving abroad; strict gender parity since 2000), threshold for 2nd round=12.5% of registered voters [5%=1958-1967, 10%=1967-1976], 5-year mandate;

• who can run: French who is 18 and with his civil rights; can run in any constituency and not only in the one he/she is registered; only one candidacy; ineligibility for army officers, higher civil servants, magistrates, etc.

• Declining turnout: more than 80% in the 1970s, now about 60% [2012=57%]

Two-round majority system: benefits

• More on the efficient side of governance than on the fairness of representativity [citizens are less fairly represented in their diversity];

• allow clear cut majorities to emerge;

• popular majority brings additional legitimacy and stability during the whole mandate [always an absolute majority of the President and often for the legislators];

• it does not contradict political plurality: in the first round, numerous parties can run [in 2012, more than 17 political parties participated] and the whole political spectrum is present in the campaign, from far left to far right; moreover, major parties are not always assured to hold an absolute majority and need to coin agreements with close-minded minor parties, usually before and in between the two rounds, to then form a coalition [in 2012, the Socialist Party with the Green Party and the Radical Party] and even major parties merge together diverse political outlooks (UMP is made of centrists, gaullists, neo-liberals, etc.).

Two-round majority system: distortions• The main distortion has to do with the discrepancy between the electoral weight of each

and every party and the number of seats they actually get and how government are formed;

• parties leading the vote are actually overrepresented: in 2012, with only 29% of the vote cast, the Socialist Party garnered 48% of the seats in the National Assembly, and the UMP, with 27% of the vote cast garnered 33,6%, the 2 points of percentage in vote cast translating into a 15 points of percentage in seats!

• small parties have little chances to be represented especially because of the “Republican front” practiced by the major parties and “unhealthy triangular” elections in the second round being closely scrutinized, this in turn leading to a perception that elites from the major parties are consciously forbidding any challenger to emerge [with 14% of the vote cast in 2012, the National Front only gained 0.3% of the seats], diversity of opinions is thus challenged;

• the system also affect deeply voters’ behavior: instead of voting for ideas, voters chose the one who has the best chance to win (sincerity caves in to utility), and in the 2nd round, voters have to choose a remaining contender that is not necessarily very close to one own’s preferences (Chirac in 2002). Abstention has thus become a way to express one’s own disagreement.

• political life has somehow become strictly bipolar with regular alternation of powers, but is also gradually perceived as a Tocquevillian tyranny of the two major forces.

Presidential election 2002

Presidential election 2007

Presidential election 2012

Legislative elections 1986 [First cohabitation]

Legislative elections 2002

Legislative elections 2007

Legislative elections 2012

Conclusion

• The Fifth Republic (1958) is credited for:

• rationality (cooperation between the different branches of power) and accountability (a motion of no confidence over the Prime Minister’s general policy address brings his/her immediate resignation);

• stability;

• semi-presidential is seen as a good balance vs. a full presidential system (especially after the experiences of cohabitation);

• And yet some people would like a Sixth Republic to be instituted to mitigate the “monarchic” character of the Fifth:

• the lack of diversity and representativity being clearly attributed to the voting system: a proportional voting system and single mandate are among the many proposals;

• problem lies also in the nature of the elite: social reproduction and educational background ---> lack of diversity and innovation.

References

• Website of the National Assembly: http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/histoire/suffrage_universel/modes_scrutin.asp

• Website of the Ministry of the Interior: http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-elections-en-France/Les-modalites-d-elections

• Website on legal information under the Prime minister: http://www.france-politique.fr/modes-de-scrutins.htm

• Excellent synthesis on the 5th Republic: http://www.vie-publique.fr/decouverte-institutions/institutions/veme-republique/transformations/comment-caracteriser-regime-politique-ve-republique.html

• Website of CEVIPOF, research center on French politics: http://www.cevipof.com/en/le-centre/presentation/

• … Wikipedia of course.