ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2012: TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND MARKET

The introductions of the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF in 2010 marked the beginning of a new era in the transportation industry:

the permanent establishment of electric-drive in the mass market for passenger vehicles. Ever-rising and increasingly volatile oil

markets and better energy storage technology have suddenly brought electric vehicles (EVs) to the threshold of technical and

economic viability. Car manufacturers have begun to take a new interest in EVs, spurred by governments’ attempts to reduce

energy dependence and the environmental footprint of the transportation sector.

This report is a comprehensive account of the strategic opportunities created by the electrification of personal transport. It offers

an extensive review of the technological, economic, and political trends shaping the EV industry. By investigating supply and

demand drivers, it analyzes the industry trajectory for the next five years. The report relies on supply and demand analysis to

assess industry growth and explores how the supply and demand dynamics are impacted by preferences and biases.

HIGH-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET TAXONOMY

Source: GTM reSeArcH

DOMINIC HOFSTETTER AND TRAVIS BRADFORD | GTM RESEARCH

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES1.1 Historical Perspective

1.1.1 First Steps:

Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries

1.1.2 Dormancy (1935-1960s) and

Awakening (1970s-1990)

1.1.3 Adolescence: 2000s and Beyond

1.2 Market Definition and Taxonomy

1.3 Types of Vehicles

1.3.1 ICEs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs

1.3.2 Comparison of Vehicle Types

1.3.3 Electric Motors

1.4 Batteries

1.4.1 Battery 101

1.4.2 Performance Tradeoffs

1.4.3 State of Technology (Fitness for Purpose)

1.5 Charging Infrastructure

1.5.1 Infrastructure Components

1.5.2 Charging Mechanics

1.5.3 Utility and Grid Infrastructure

1.5.4 Other Charging Challenges

1.6 The Case for Electric Vehicles

1.6.1 Economic Benefits

1.6.2 Oil Independence and Energy Security

1.6.3 Environmental Benefits

1.6.4 Other Benefits

1.7 Conclusion

2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011 2.1 Current Market Size and

State of Technology Adoption

2.2 Trends

2.2.1 Rising Gasoline Prices

2.2.2 Increasing Fuel Economy

2.2.3 Changes in Consumer Attitudes

and Behavior

2.2.4 Changes in Regulatory Environment

2.2.5 Development of the Smart Grid

2.2.6 Emergence of a Startup Culture

2.2.7 Battery Research and Development

2.2.8 Commoditization of Charging

Infrastructure

2.2.9 Industry Consolidation

2.3 Challenges

2.3.1 Range Anxiety and Charging Time

2.3.2 Deployment of Charging Infrastructure

2.3.3 Risk of the Three Mile Island Effect

2.3.4 Cost Differential

2.3.5 Consumer Behavior

2.3.6 Grid Capacity

2.3.7 Competitive Response

2.3.8 International Coordination

2.3.9 Sales and Service Infrastructure

2.4 Investment Flows

2.4.1 Public Investment

2.4.2 Private Investment

2.5 Regulatory Environment

2.5.1 General Attractiveness

2.5.2 Financial Support

2.6 Conclusion

3. EV ECONOMICS 3.1 Economic Drivers

3.2 Capital Cost

3.2.1 Current and Future Battery Costs

3.2.2 Other Drivers of Capital Cost Differentials

3.2.3 Predicting Future Capital Costs

3.3 Operating Costs

3.3.1 Cost Drivers

3.3.2 Predicting Future Operating Costs

3.3.3 Relative Operating Costs: EVs vs. ICEs

3.3.4 Payback Period

3.4 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

3.4.1 TCO in the United States

3.4.2 International Perspective

3.5 Conclusion

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015 4.1 Supply Side of the EV Industry

4.1.1 Players and Manufacturing Capacity

4.1.2 Production Capacity: Passenger Vehicles

4.1.3 Production Capacity: Fleet Vehicles

4.1.4 Supply Chain Constraints

4.2 Demand Side of the EV Industry

4.2.1 Global Vehicle Fleet

4.2.2 Substitutability Constraints

4.2.3 Infrastructure Constraints

4.2.4 Consumer Demand

4.2.5 Commercial Demand

4.2.6 Government Roll-Out Programs

4.2.7 Conclusions

4.3 Forecasting Market Growth and Technology

Deployment Between 2011 and 2015

4.3.1 Forecasting Vehicle Sales

4.3.2 PHEV vs. BEVs in Vehicle Deployment

4.4 Beyond 2015

4.5 Conclusions: A Few Years of Creep,

Then a Major Leap

4.5.1 Market Conditions

4.5.2 Industry Adaptations

4.5.3 Architecture Evolution

4.5.4 Capital Flows

4.5.5 Final Remarks

5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS 5.1 Established Car Manufacturers

General Motors

Nissan

Mitsubishi

Renault

Toyota

Volkswagen

Daimler

PSA Peugeot Citroën

BMW

Ford

Honda

Hyundai Kia

Fiat/Chrysler

SAIC

5.2 Independent Car Manufacturers

Tesla Motors

Coda Automotive

Fisker Automotive

BYD

Think Global

Bright Automotive

Chery Automobile

Wheego Electric Cars

5.3 Charging Infrastructure Providers

Better Place

ClipperCreek

Coulomb Technologies

Eaton

ECOtality

North America

Epyon Power/ABB

General Electric

Leviton

Schneider Electric

6. APPENDIX

7. BIBLIOGRAPHY

LIST OF FIGURES

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES · U.S. Electric Vehicle Timeline

· High-Level Electric Vehicle Market Taxonomy

· Electric Vehicle Configurations

· Electric Motor vs. ICE Efficiency Curve

· Comparison of Vehicle Types

· Batteries of Tesla Roadster, Nissan LEAF, and

Chevy Volt

· Value Chain for Electric Vehicle Batteries

· Li-ion vs. NiMH

· Comparison of Li-Ion Chemistries

· Specific Energy and Specific Power of Different

Battery Types

· Conceptual Illustration of Battery Discharge

· Average Daily Range Requirement for Personal

Vehicles

· Proportion of Trips Possible From Batteries of

Different Capacities

· Home Charging Times for Mid-Size PHEVs

· Charging Equipment from Select Equipment

Manufacturers

· Battery Switch Station from Better Place

· Map of Public Charging Spots in the United

States as of June 30, 2011

· Current Readiness versus Future Momentum of

Top 50 Metros

· Technical Potential for Fueling the Regional LDV

Fleet With Available Electric Capacity

· 24-Hour Total Loading of Single Feeder

· Costs of Oil Dependence to the U.S. Economy,

1970-2009

· Energy and Carbon Intensity Values for

Conventional Vehicles, Hybrids, and PHEVs

2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011 · Popular Electric Vehicles

· Weekly U.S. All Grades, All Formulations Retail

Gasoline Prices

· Gasoline Prices by Country

· Elasticity of Demand for Crude Oil – Estimates

for Selected Countries (1971-2000)

· Oil Prices and HEV Sales, U.S., Historical

· LDV Fuel Economy

· Average Fuel Economy Trends Through 2008

by Region, With Enacted or Proposed Targets

Through 2020

· Technology for Improved Fuel Economy and

Reduced CO2 Emissions

· Top 10 ARRA Awardees in Electric Drive and

Vehicle Battery Component Manufacturing

· Top 10 Venture Capital Investments in EV

Companies in H1 2011

· Electric Vehicle Attractiveness by Country

· State-Level Incentives in the United States

· Financial Incentives for Electric Cars by Country

(in EUR)

3. EV ECONOMICS · Battery Cost Break-Up

· USABC Performance and Cost Goals of Li-ion

Batteries

· Battery Cost Estimates With Production Volume

· Estimates of PHEV Li-ion Battery Pack Cost

· Learning Curves in Battery Manufacturing

· Electric Vehicle Cost Premium Forecasts in USD

· Key Drivers of EV Operating Costs

· Cycle Cost of Battery

· Simplified Variable Cost of ICEs vs. BEVs in the

United States

· Cost Advantage of BEVs: 2012-2020

· Cost Advantage of BEVs, 2012-2035

· Gasoline and Electricity Cost in Select Markets

· International Comparison of Cost Advantage

· Total Cost of Ownership for Stylized Vehicles

· Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average BEV to

Gasoline Prices and Subsidies

· Financing Vehicle Purchase With Car Loans

· Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average PHEV to

All-Electric Range and MSRP

· Total Cost of Ownership of Currently Available

Vehicles

· TCO Comparison Across Select Countries

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015

· List of Passenger Electric Vehicle Manufacturers

· Announced Production Capacity by Car

Manufacturer

· List of Select Commercial Electric Vehicle

Manufacturers

· Worldwide Lithium Production and Reserves

· Historical and Projected Contained Lithium

Demand

· Lithium Harvesting in Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni,

the World’s Largest Salt Flat

· Demand and Supply of Rare Earth Minerals

Worldwide

· Demand Constraints in the Electric Vehicle

Industry

· Percentage Change in Car Fleet Growth (1996-

2008)

· Stock and Flow Data for Select Countries

· Unlikely Purchasers of Electric Vehicles

· Access to Recharge Spot by Location and Outlet

Distance

· Consumer Interest in Alternative Powertrain Types

· Factors That Would Favorably Influence People’s

Decision to Purchase a PHEV or EV

· Factors That Would Make People Hesitant to

Choose a PHEV or EV

· Percentage Distribution of PHEV Designs by

Early Market Potential Respondents

· Share of Vehicle Trips by Distance (2009 NHTS)

· Overview of EPA Driving Cycles

· Driving Cycles and Fuel Economy in the United

States, Europe, and Japan

· Electricity Availability and Instantaneous Power

demand by Time-of-Day in Watts (Weekday

Average)

· A Selection of Fleet Electrification Announcements

· Announced Targets for Annual Sales and Stock

Size by Country in 2015 and 2020

· Announced Targets for National Fleets

(Cumulative Stocks), 2010-2020

· Third-Party Forecasts of EV Fleets in Different

Regions

· Selection of Long-Term Forecasts by Various

Third-Party Analysts

5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS · List of Available and Announced BEV Models

· List of Available and Announced PHEV Models

· List of Charging Infrastructure Providers

VALUE-ADDED ELEMENTS: STRATEGIC INQUIRIES:

» Growth analysis and investment flows for global EV market through 2015.

» Breakdown of current EV economics and opportunities for reducing capital, battery and EV operating costs.

» Examination of supply-side manufacturer capacities and contraints to growth.

» Analysis of demand-side cost benefits, deployment programs and infrastructure constraints.

» Over 30 strategic profiles of car manufacturers and charging structure infrastructure providers.

» What technologies and companies are vying for market share?

» How fast will the market grow and what will drive growth?

» What other infrastructure elements will be required and what are the prospects for those?

» Are there alternative business models which might help address obstacles?

» How competitive are EVs relative to ICEs today, and how is this competitiveness expected to change over time?

» Which technologies will win, and what investment strategies are available to capitalize on that insight?

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ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2012: Technology, Economics, and MarketDOMINIC HOFSTETTER AND TRAVIS BRADFORD | GTM RESEARCH