Electric Vehicles: is Australia Ready?

PROFESSOR STEPHEN GREAVESInstitute of Transport & Logistics Studies

University of SydneyMarch 3rd, 2015

S e m in a r O v e r v i e w

› Context: Driven by wider sustainability objectives, Australia is considering cleaner vehicle technologies, including electric vehicles.

› Seminar Outline:

› Provide a general state-of-play of the electric vehicle landscape overseas and in Australia.

› Assess the practicalities of meeting current vehicle needs with electric › Assess the practicalities of meeting current vehicle needs with electric vehicles under various range/re-charging options in Sydney.

› Identify the main challenges/barriers ahead for wider adoption of electric vehicles in Australia.

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Electric Vehicles (EVs) – some definitions to get us started...

› Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) - Hybrid technology uses conventional engines in conjunction with battery power to maximise the time an engine operates close to point of

maximum efficiency. – e.g., Prius.

› Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) - Vehicle can be recharged from an external source of electricity with the electricity stored in a rechargeable battery that contributes to drive stored in a rechargeable battery that contributes to drive the wheels. Three broad sub-categories:

- Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) - Highway capable vehicles that are powered entirely from an on-board rechargeable

battery, generally re-charged through plug-in – e.g.,

Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi iMiev.

- Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) – Conventional hybrid vehicle that has a battery that can be re-charged from mains electricity – e.g., Holden Volt.

- Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle (NEV) – low speed all-electric vehicle.

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Electric Vehicles – a Very Brief History

› First produced in the 19th century out-numbering gasoline-based vehicles.

› 20th century: Limited range, rise of ‘king oil’ and the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV).

› Late 20th century: Air quality legislation in the U.S. mandating manufacture of PEVs overturned leading mandating manufacture of PEVs overturned leading to infamous documentary....

› Mid-2000s: Resurgence of interest, particularly in more ‘socially/environmentally conscious’ European nations, small PEVs.

› Late-2000s: Spreading of interest to more auto-dominated societies, larger PEVs.

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Contemporary BEVs

› Recent resurgence of interest in BEVs – why?

- Setting of aggressive emissions targets, in turn mandating improved vehicle efficiency and reduced emissions/km.

- Battery technology, re-charging improvements.

- Vehicle design – from ‘nerd’ mobile to ‘cool’ mobile.

- Conventional fuel issues – cost, energy security, environmental impacts.- Conventional fuel issues – cost, energy security, environmental impacts.

- Government support for vehicle manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers & policy interventions to encourage uptake.

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Contemporary PEVs – the pros and cons

› Pros:

- Zero-emissions at point of use.

- Reduced noise.

- Higher efficiency in stop-start driving.

› Cons:

- High capital vehicle cost

- Battery technology – cost, long recharge times, limited vehicle range, increased vehicle weight.

- Limited re-charging options.

- Source of energy used to provide the electricity used to recharge the battery.

- Some concerns over safety, performance in extreme temperatures.

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EV Market Share of New Car Sales - 2013

6.1%

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http://www.abb-conversations.com/2014/03/electric-vehicle-market-share-in-19-countries/. Accessed 25/2/15

0.036%

Policies to support EV uptake in Norway

Incentive Primary Purpose

VAT-exempt (25%) Reduce purchase price

Rego-exempt Reduce ongoing ownership costs

Reduced licence fee

Reduced company car tax

Access to bus lanes Reduce time costs

› Parliamentary mandate requiring 50,000 zero emission vehicles by 2018.

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Access to bus lanes Reduce time costs

Free parking Reduce usage costs

Free toll-roads

Reduced rates on ferries

Financial support for conventional and fast recharging stations

Reduced ‘range anxiety’, accessible charging

Reserved EV number-plates Control of incentives, visibility of EVs.

Clean, GHG-free, cheap electricity Reduced operating costs, environmental benefits

Adapted from Figenbaum, E., Kolbenstvedt, M., Elvebakk, B. (2014) Electric vehicles - environmental, economic and practical aspects As seen by current and potential users. TØI report 1329/2014.

Who buys EVs in Norway and Why?

› 2014 survey of 1,721 EV owners, suggests EV owners generally more educated, higher income, multicar households, located in and around big cities. However, EV-only households are growing along with consumer confidence.

› Little overall reported changes in travel after purchasing an EV.

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The state of play elsewhere

› Europe: many nations offer incentives around reduced purchase and ownership costs and a few (e.g., Netherlands, London) around parking.

› China and India: Incentives are provided but are paid to the manufacturers rather than consumers with the dual aim of creating an export market as well as addressing local pollution concerns.

› U.S: target of 1 million EVs by 2015; aggressive federally-funded incentive › U.S: target of 1 million EVs by 2015; aggressive federally-funded incentive program to manufacturers with most states having purchase and ownership tax-based incentives, and carpool lane access.

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Current State-of-Play of the EV Market in Australia

› Several trials conducted around the country, mainly with fleet vehicles.

› Vehicles are expensive, very much a niche product.

› Consumer preference for larger vehicles, PHEVs.

› General lack of government support compared to overseas.

› Limited recharging network.› Limited recharging network.

› Highly carbon-intensive electricity generation negating GHG benefits.

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Government Incentives for PEVs in Australia (1)

› Federal: Small break on the luxury car tax ($75,375 versus $61,884) for fuel efficiency less than 7L/100km.

› State: Victoria ($100 rego discount); ACT ($0 stamp duty), no incentives in NSW or anywhere else.

› Indirect incentive of not taxing electricity as a fuel (for now at least).

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Australian PEV registrations 2010-14

2014: 0.11% due primarily to the Outlander P-HEV.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country. Accessed 25/2/15

External Recharging Stations – Sydney and Surrounds

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https://www.chargepoint.net.au/charge_point

Practicalities of BEVs for Day-to-Day Driving in Australia

› Hypothetically assess the extent to which current car travel needs could be met by BEVs for a sample of Sydney motorists assuming a simple home-charging set-up.

› Evaluate the relative importance of battery capacity, re-charging time, driving conditions, and auxiliary requirements on vehicle range.

› Full study details available in: Greaves SP, Backman H and Ellison AB 2014 'An Empirical Assessment of the Feasibility of Battery Electric Vehicles for Day-to-Day Driving', Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol.66, pp. 226-37

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Study Methods - Overview

ENERGY CONSUMPTION MODELFn(vehicle characteristics, home-

home tour distance, speed, auxiliary power reqs)

BATTERY RECHARGE MODEL

Home-home tours from GPS-based driving information

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BATTERY RECHARGE MODELIf parked time >60 mins, fn(Charge

of previous tour; time between tours; charging rate (kWh/h)*

*In Australia, electricity is supplied at 240-volts, enabling a vehicle to receive 240 volts at 30 amps (7.2 kWh/h) implying in theory a 24 kW vehicle (e.g., Nissan Leaf) should be

rechargeable in under four hours. However, in reality, the ability of the vehicle to draw current is dictated by safety and service quality constraints, such that the effective charging rate is around 10–15 amps (2.4–3.6 kWh/h) implying around 6–10 h is needed for full re-charge of a 24 kW vehicle.

The GPS Driving Data

› Five weeks of GPS data collected from 166 Sydney motorists as part of a study of driving behaviour *.

› Reasonably representative of Sydney driving, although captured many more shorter trips than the Household Travel Survey as expected.

› *Greaves SP, Fifer S, Ellison R and Germanos G 2010 'Development of a Global Positioning System Web-Based Prompted Recall Solution for Longitudinal Travel Surveys', Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol.2183, pp. 69-77

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Results – Tour Distances and Time Between Tours

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Home-Home Tours

<7% of home-home tours exceed

lowest range considered of 60km

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Tour Distance (km)

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Home-Home Tours

Time Between Tours (mins)

>50% of tours separated by more

than 7 hours and 20% separated by

less than 1 hour.

How many vehicles (tours) would have run out of charge over the five weeks?

Battery

capacity

(kWh)

Estimated

driving

range

(km)

Recharge Rate (kWh)

2.4 3.6 7.2

Vehicles Tours Vehicles Tours Vehicles Tours

8 60 73% 10% 73% 10% 73% 9%

12 85 52% 5% 52% 5% 52% 5%

18 130 38% 3% 38% 2% 37% 2%

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› Around 10% of tours would not have been possible even for the lowest range (60 km) considered.....

› but over 20% of vehicles would have run out of charge at some point even with the highest range vehicle.

› Recharge time in itself has little impact due to time parked at home and because battery takes on most of the charge in the first third of charging time.

18 130 38% 3% 38% 2% 37% 2%

24 170 31% 2% 31% 2% 31% 2%

30 210 25% 1% 25% 1% 25% 1%

36 255 22% 1% 22% 1% 21% 1%*166 vehicles making a total of 8,280 out-of-home tours over the five week period

How often would vehicles have run out of charge?

75%78%

14%

19%

19%

16%13%

13%

12%

5%

4%4% 5%

9%

8%

5%

5%3% 3%

9%

4%

1%

1% 0% 0%

27%

13%7%

3% 2% 2%

5+

4

3

2

Days

› Over ¼ of the lowest-range vehicles would have required some additional recharging options at least five times during the study period.

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27%

48%

62%69%

75%78%

16%

8 12 18 24 30 36

Battery Capacity (kWh)

2

1

0

study period.

› Even for the highest range vehicles, a small but significant proportion (9%) would have needed other options on at least 2 occasions.

How do driving conditions impact range?

› Effective range varied by over 100 km based on driving speed.

› Lower ranges generally associated with very high tour speeds, which tended to be on longer journeys on high-speed roads.

› 90% of trips exceed range expectations with average speeds clustering around 34 km/h, close to optimal for BEV range.

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100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250

Av

era

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To

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Effective Range (24 kWh Battery Capacity)

Use of electrical auxiliaries

› Current standardised EV tests do not incorporate full impact of auxiliaries on range, which is why they are over-stated for practical driving conditions.

› Impacts are dramatic with range reduced by one quarter to one half dependent on weather, running A/C, heaters etc.

Auxiliary Discharge Rate (kW)

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Battery

capacity

(kWh)

Est.

driving

range

(km)

0.5 (base load) 2.0 (heavy rain) 3.5 (Hot Summers Day) 5.0 (Cold winters day)

Veh. Tours Veh. Tours Veh. Tours

Est.

range

(km) Veh. Tours

Est.

Range

(km)

8 60 73% 10% 88% 16% 96% 23% 35 99% 31% 30

12 85 52% 5% 66% 8% 84% 12% 52 91% 17% 44

18 130 38% 2% 48% 4% 58% 5% 78 69% 8% 65

24 170 31% 2% 38% 2% 43% 2% 104 54% 4% 87

30 210 25% 1% 33% 2% 39% 2% 130 43% 3% 109

36 255 22% 1% 25% 1% 32% 2% 156 39% 2% 131

Summary of hypothetical work

› Range:

- While BEVs with a range as low as 60km could accommodate over 90% of day-to-day driving in Sydney the incidence of tours requiring out-of-home charging increases markedly for vehicles below 170km effective range.

› Recharging:

- Despite claims that re-charging infrastructure are integral to encouraging BEV uptake, in reality a simple home-based re-charging set-up appears adequate for the majority of reality a simple home-based re-charging set-up appears adequate for the majority of recharging needs.

- Practical challenges with home-charging (i.e., easy access to a power outlet) are likely to present a bigger barrier.

› Driving Conditions:

- Effective range is dramatically impacted by both how a vehicle is driven and use of electrical auxiliaries – Sydney’s hot summers may present particular challenges.

- BEVs appear particularly suited for the majority of day-to-day city driving where average journey speeds of 34 km/h are close to optimal in terms of maximising vehicle range.

- Currently-available BEVs appear unsuitable for long, high-speed journeys without some external re-charging options.

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Electric Vehicles: is Australia ready?

› Government Support (2/10): There are no targets, little direct financial support or meaningful policy supporting EVs. Overseas success stories, suggest without this, it simply won’t happen.

› Recharging infrastructure (3/10): while home-charging is generally viable, ‘range fear’ implies investment in charging stations (conventional and fast) is needed. However, it is currently somewhat of a ‘chicken and egg’ situation.

› Understanding the consumer (5/10): While Mitsubishi got it wrong with the iMieV, › Understanding the consumer (5/10): While Mitsubishi got it wrong with the iMieV, the early success of the Outlander is an indicator that Australian’s first and foremost want a vehicle ‘that meets their needs’. PHEVs may provide a more appealing option than BEVs for ‘range-fearing’ Aussies.

› Energy & environment (2/10): cheap petrol, rising electricity prices and the continued reliance on carbon-based electricity generation threaten the EV cause.

› The bigger picture: while there is considerable scepticism about EVs not just here but overseas, seems improbable that aggressive emission targets will be achievable without wide-spread use of cleaner technologies.

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