electricity markets in europe: a changing landscape …

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Electricity Markets in Europe: a changing landscape… Johan Albrecht Faculty of Economics & Business Administration

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Electricity Markets in Europe: a changing landscape …. Johan Albrecht Faculty of Economics & Business Administration. Some observations …. CCGT Tessenderlo ; ultra-efficient (57%) but idle …. Gas or coal - based electricity ?. Bron; IEA (2012). Which region prefers coal ?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity Markets in Europe:a changing landscape…

Johan AlbrechtFaculty of Economics & Business Administration

Page 2: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Some observations…

Page 3: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

CCGT Tessenderlo;ultra-efficient (57%) but idle…

Page 4: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 5: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Gas or coal-based electricity?

Bron; IEA (2012)

Page 6: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Which region prefers coal?Europe United States

International climate profile

LEADER LAGGARD

Evolution CO2–emissions btw 2000 and 2010

- 4.4% (EU-27) / -5.1% (EU-15) -5.7%

Coal consumption 2011 + 3.6% -4.6%

Gas consumption in 2011

- 9% + 3.3%

Gas price High (> $ 4/Mbtu) Low (< $ 2/Mbtu)

Investment choice electricity

Coal-powered plants Gas-powered plants

Page 7: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Energiewende; the bureaucrat’s climax• 4 500 different FIT (Justus Haucap, DICE)• extremely inefficient (35% of global PV capacity in

Germany with limited solar hours / Spain 7%)• Cost for society: € 20 billion/yr• Redistribution N->S, poor -> rich• Bankruptcy wave among German PV companies• No structural job creation• German CO2 emissions on the rise despite

Energiewende; an unconvenient truth

Page 8: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Low-carbon electricity love story under serious stress…

• March 2009, 61 CEO’s electricity companies (+70% of total EU power generation) signed a Declaration committing to action to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2050.

• 2009 Power Choices study examining how this vision could be made reality

• Eurelectric (2013): ‘Power Choices Reloaded: Europe's Lost Decade?’ : “European policy is not sending a clear signal. Instead it offers several conflicting and contradictory signals. For an investor it is almost impossible to identify a clear path through the regulatory jungle. In contrast to the coherent objective of the European internal energy market, we experience a variety of different and not very stable national policies for low-carbon….”

Page 9: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Why do we have low-carbon policies?

Page 10: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

The fossil energy system made us very rich, but also makes us…

Page 11: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Fossil fuels 82% TPES, modern RES 1% (modern RES 0.1% in 1973)

• Who made or designed the global energy system? • Problems: CO2, short-term allocative efficiency, price

volatility (risk for inflation & recessions)• Market failure 1; no price on CO2

• No G8 & G20 agreement; too risky, CO2 price triggers only mature technologies

• Market failure 2; € 544 billion fossil subsidies• Coal subsidies in EU; prolonged up to 2018

Page 12: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

CO2 price in ETS (2005-2013): no penalty for coal

p.12

Page 13: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Market failure 3; historical underinvestment in energy-related RD&D

Page 14: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

pag. 14 Source: IEA, ETP 2010

Page 15: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Global R&D gap $ 40 - $ 90 bill/yr

• WEO 2013: $ 544 bill fossil subsidies (mainly non-OECD)

• RES deployment subsidies of $ 101 billion per year (EU € 57 billion, of which € 20 billion in Germany); will expand to $ 220 billion by 2035

• Policymakers avoid explicit signals (like carbon prices), prefer hidden mechanims, avoid transparency

• No carbon price-> Soviet-style economic planning

Page 16: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Europe: alone in G8/G20• “Yes, we can!” : 20/20/20, Low-carbon Economy,

2050 Roadmap, Energiewende,…• Without a price on CO2 (failure of ETS)• Without supporting energy R&D• Without post-2020 targets• National targets -> fragmentation• With energy cost disadvantageof + $ 130 bill to US industry(WEO 2013)

Page 17: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 18: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

• Dieter Helm (author of ‘The Carbon Crunch’, Oxford): ‘Europe took every measure it could to make energy more expensive’ – Europe: EC (targets) + MS (subsidies)

Page 19: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity markets; some basics

• Defining electricity markets: introduction• Market institutions before and after the

liberalisation• Electricity prices + price composition• European recession and evolution of

electricity demand• Long-term challenges

Page 20: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Defining electricity markets

An introduction

Page 21: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Defining electricity markets/systems• Market: meeting place for buyers and sellers• Electricity; instantaneous but also intertemporal equilibrium

between demand (load) and supply (generation)• Electricity system is designed to follow a variable load –

technologies selected based on their load following ability• Efficiency: market designs should support ‘optimal’

combination of generation and balancing technologies

Page 22: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 23: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Even nuclear plants can follow the load

Page 24: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Seasonal load & peak variance; Texas (US)

Page 25: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Production by generators,sold on future and intra-day markets

Total demand / final consumption

Balancing coordinated by TSO/DSO

Page 26: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

System needs -> market designs

Ancillary services (managed by TSO/DSO): frequency & voltage control, spinning & standing reserve, black start capacity, remote automatic generation control, grid loss compensation and emergency control actions.

TSO/DSO Suppliers (Generators)/ Generators as InvestorsTraders

Page 27: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

System needs -> market design 2 • Market for ancillary services: TSO/DSO contract generators,

large users -> fee for offered capacity services – « network costs » on your invoice

• Intraday and forward ‘energy-only’ markets: D&S of electricity on platforms – « electricity cost » on your invoice

• Capacity markets: generators negotiate/receive incentives to invest, e.g. subsidy per installed MW CCGT capacity – « network costs » on your invoice (or not on your invoice – financed from general taxes)

• Debate on capacity markets in Europe; ‘energy-only’ markets apparently do not trigger sufficient investments in new capacity…

Page 28: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

European electricity market patchwork in 2013

Page 29: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Market institutions before and after the liberalisation

Page 30: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Let’s go back to 1980s• Electricity landscape with heavily regulated vertically integrated

companies (national/regional/local monopolies)• Regulation: security of supply (grid stability, flexibility, balancing),

investment cycle (follow expected demand), final prices (« cost-plus » system) & (global) profit margin

• Vertically integrated: generation, transmission, local distribution, security of supply – internal optimisation of activities and investment decisions; single business model to optimize complete value chain, e.g. generation strategy considers capacity of transmission grid and ability to balance under extreme circumstances

• Utilities sell energy services, including system reliability and system adequacy, all priced per MWh finally consumed

• Cross-subsidies at retail level to offer lower prices to industry

Page 31: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Vertically integrated companies• Prices; depending on investment cycles, technological

choices, industrial policy (cross-subsidies), geography, …• Different electricity prices can distort free competition & isn’t

life too easy for big utilities with guaranteed profit margins??• To assess desirability of this model, you have to ask whether

electricity is just a commodity or provides a social service with external benefits

• ‘Old’ invoice at retail level : electr + network costs + taxes• EC: electricity is a commodity -> liberalize to increase

competition -> market model = energy-only market (EOM)

Page 32: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Economic life in 1980s• Utilities and national planning organisations project expected

demand (ST, MT & Long Term) and propose necessary investments (generation + network)

• Governments approve investment plans and eliminate market uncertainty (technical uncertainty remains)

• After investments come on-line: period with overcapacity (esp. with nuclear, less with smaller gas-powered plants) followed by tighter markets as economy grows (explains investment waves)

• Closed markets with regulated prices to recover capital costs; prices mainly follow capital cost (see French case) : depreciated assets (after 15 to 20 yrs) lead to lower retail prices

• Once depreciated, old assets remain operational at low cost (marginal) and de facto compete with new or planned generation assets

• EU today: many assets date from before 1970!

Page 33: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

« Cost-Plus » & investment cycle (FR); price follows investm cycle

Page 34: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 35: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Age distribution of existing power plants

Ageing infrastructure is the challenge in many OECD countries, whereas emerging economies have to cope with a growing demand for electricity.

Page 36: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

The liberalisation and market integration project

• Directive 96/92/EC concerning common rules of the internal market in electricity (the First Electricity Directive) and Directive 98/30/EC on common rules for the internal market in natural gas (the First Gas Directive)

• 2002: national and international electricity and gas trading platforms, e.g EEX.com

• 2003: Second Energy Package (SEP)• 2005: EC inquiry about functioning of internal market• 2009: Third Energy Package (TEP) for the electricity and gas markets

: stringent unbundling rules , new agency to coordinate the actions of the national regulatory authorities (NRAs), the formation of ‘European Network of Transmission System Operators’ for electricity and gas

• TEP completed by the end of 2014??

Page 37: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

The landscape in 2014

• Generation only // generation and supply (with trading) // trading only // distribution (DSO) // transmission (TSO)

• Regulation: security of supply, plus new policy targets (climate policy GHG-20% by 2020, 20% RES-quota by 2020)

• TSOs (together with DSOs) ensure security of supply, but cannot influence generation choices e.g. more weather-based generation demands more efforts in terms of balancing and back-up -> costs/risks are externalized

• Electricity generation company only sells electricity as a commodity and does not consider system behavior

• Each company has only one activity (no cross-subsidies) in a much more uncertain environment (and targets 15% ROI)

Page 38: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

The landscape in 2014 (2)

• No price, investment cycle and profit regulation anymore (forbidden in theory, still existing at retail level in many MS)

• Life time of electricity (system) assets is still 30 to 50 years – can these investments be triggered in free and unpredictable markets??

• In all MS, you can buy shares of publicly listed companies (e.g. Belgian TSO Elia did buy German TSO 50 Hertz), you can set-up your own energy company (lowest financial barrier for trading companies targetting industrial consumers)

Page 39: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Who is retailing before/after liberalization?

Domestic Generator(s)/ Producer(s)

Retail clients (households &

companies)

Domestic Generators/

Traders

Foreign Generators/

Traders

Suppliers/ retailers

Trading platforms (ahead,

intraday)

e.g. Belgian trading company - without generation assets - buyselectricity on Dutch and German wholesale markets to sell toBelgian and French industrial companies

Before After liberalization

Page 40: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity prices + price composition

Page 41: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Wholesale prices 2005-2010 (CWE)

Page 42: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Retail electricity invoice today

• Retail invoice = electricity + network + taxes (as it was before the liberalisation)

Page 43: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity prices in 2013

Source; Eurostat (2014). 81/2014

Page 44: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 45: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 46: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

EU-15 retail prices for households, 1998-2011

Page 47: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Lower prices for industrial consumers

Page 48: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Rising retail prices in Germany…

Page 49: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

… conceal flat commodity prices but strong increase of electricity taxes

Page 50: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Invoice in Germany: 35% commodity + 25% network costs + 40% taxes

Page 51: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

EU27: commodity < 50% household invoice

Page 52: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Industry: lower prices of which 70% consists of commodity (because of lower taxes)

Page 53: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

DK: commodity 20% of « electricity invoice »?

Page 54: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Danish industry pays less taxes…

Page 55: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Some conclusions• With the ongoing liberalisation and market

integration, retail prices still differ because of differences in national tax systems and policies with respect to network costs

• Retail prices slightly increased since 1998, retail price variation remained

• The aim of the EU energy policy was "to ensure that EU consumers receive the full benefits of market opening in terms of lower domestic bills for electricity and gas “

Page 56: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

European recession and evolution of electricity demand

Page 57: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Structural demand reduction?

Page 58: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Reserve margin NL+FR+DE}: > 15/20 % up to 2018

Bron: Axpo Market Analysis

Page 59: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

IHS CERA: CWE reserve margin outlook

Page 60: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Merit order effect (supply = Σ marginal cost)

p.60

Page 61: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Capacity mix Europe2. Status of CWE-Nordic interregional coupling;A first step: Interim Tight Volume Coupling (ITVC)

• Interim Tight Volume Coupling (ITVC), based on EMCC‘s Nordic-German coupling, will provide tight volume coupling between the future CWE market coupling and NPS market splitting

• ITVC will consider two regions with

o many market areas

o many interconnectors

o different market coupling schemes

• The CWE-Nordic TSOs and PXs asked EMCC to develop the interim solution to couple the two regions

• The project was launched in January

• The project will be launched in two steps;

step 1 without the NorNed, step 2 with the NorNed

• Costs are shared by all TSOs in both regions

Page 62: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Impact on existing assets: CCGT

Page 63: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Marginal and total electricity prod.cost (€/MWh, 2013)

Fuel cost (€/MWh)

Total cost (LCOE, excl.CO2 cost),

€/MWhPV 0 190

Wind onshore 0 107Wind offshore 0 142

Nuclear 8 98Coal 30 67Gas 50 76

Biomass 75 122

Page 64: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity in CWE: no market-driven investments

• Overcapacity; wholesale market price electricity CW Europe: € 75/MWh in 2007 / € 40 - 45/MWh today

• Even lower electricity prices are possible• Efficient markets: price expectations trigger investment

behavior• 2013-2025: a lot of old capital (fossil & nuclear) needs

to be replaced • Alternative; longer use of inefficient capital• Low prices -> coal replaces gas (wholesale prices reflect

marginal costs)

Page 65: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Some conclusions

• Electricity landscape undergoes a very radical transformation (~unbundling, contestability)…

• with an uncertain institutional outlook (# capacity mechanisms)…

• while the Europe wants to decarbonize and imposes investments in new RES capacity with low LFs…

• inserting a subsidized and sheltered market segment in liberalised markets…

• leading to an increasing variability of generation and more complications to follow the demand for electricity…

• which is shrinking for the first time since 1960…

Page 66: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Electricity: long-term challenges

• Energy transition with subsidized market intervention increases short-term energy security risks in Europe; European utilities depreciated 51 GW assets

• Energy transition consistent with European Energy-Only Market (EOM) model?

• Back to Energiewende (based on NEA/OECD 2012)

Page 67: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …
Page 68: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Residual load with 50% RES

Maximal load remains high with 50% RES!

Excess output of 27 GW

Page 69: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Residual load with 80% RESMaximal load remains high with 80% RES!

Excess output (78 GW or 43 TWh/yr or 12% wind & PV output) > max load

Load oscillations of 100 GW in a few hours (mainly because of PV) / today < 12 GW

Page 70: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Generation portfolios for 12 scenarios

Page 71: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Total system cost : between € 39 and € 96 billion

Page 72: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

Wholesale prices with 80% RES (DE)• 80% RES: prices are zero for 2850 hours (33% of time)• 80% RES: massive investments but very low prices

Page 73: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

80% RES: a challenging market reality• Prices (for electricity as commodity) can never finance

required transition investments• System with low LF for all assets – is there a better

definition of inefficiency?• Capacity renumeration schemes unavoidable?• Final consumers will have to pay high upfront cost of

transition, irrespective of their (low) electricity consumption

• Policymakers : “Yes, you consume less and green electricity and that’s why your invoice will double/triple ”

• Model of economic planning with subsidies not sustainable/consistent

Page 74: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

The energy transition; a learning experiment

Page 75: Electricity Markets  in Europe: a  changing landscape …

• Ernest Rutherford (1871-1937): « Gentleman, we have run out of money. It’s time to start thinking. »

• « Let’s organize a summer school! »