electrifying asia’s transportation sector
DESCRIPTION
ELECTRIFYING ASIA’S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Lynette Cheah, Ph.D. SIEW Roundtable F: Transportation Fuel Choices for Asia October 30, 2014TRANSCRIPT
ELECTRIFYING ASIA’S
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
Lynette Cheah, Ph.D.
SIEW Roundtable F: Transportation Fuel Choices for Asia
October 30, 2014
Singapore University of Technology and Design
• Singapore’s 4th university, established in 2009 in
collaboration with MIT and Zhejiang University
• Focus on design and multidisciplinary research
• Four pillars:
• Engineering Product
Development
• Engineering Systems and
Design
• Information Systems
Technology and Design
• Architecture and Sustainable
Design
2
Today’s seminar
3
• Electric vehicles in Asia
• Life cycle impact of EVs
• Reducing impact from cars
BYD E6 electric crossover vehicle
3x freight
activity
2+ billion
cars
By 2050,
Growth in motorization
4
Source: WBCSD
Global electric vehicle stock in 2012 =
180,000+ (0.02% of total passenger cars)
5
Source: IEA 2013
Hybrid EV (HEV)e.g. Toyota Prius,
Ford Fusion
Plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV-X miles)e.g. Toyota Prius PHEV13,
Chevy Volt PHEV35
Battery EV (BEV-X miles)e.g. Nissan Leaf BEV75,
Mitsubishi iMiEV BEV75
6
Types of electric vehicles (EVs)
Why electrify transportation?
• Energy security
• Reduce reliance on
(imported) fossil fuels
• Slightly more energy
efficient
• Environmental benefits
• Zero tailpipe emissions –
mitigates local air pollution
• Combat global warming –
potentially lower carbon
emissions, if coupled with
clean grid
7
EVs as % of total passenger vehicle sales
8
EV market shares are still
below 1% in most markets
Source: IEA 2013
China’s growing vehicle market
9
• In 2010, vehicle sales in
China surpassed the US
and all other countries
• No question that China’s
vehicle population will grow.
Question is how big?
• Energy and environmental
implications - China is
already the world’s largest
CO2 emitter and second
largest oil importer
Vehicles per 1,000 people
Projected growth of EVs in China
• Drivers: Government support, rising oil prices, reserves of raw materials for
EV production
• Restraints: Lack of charging facilities, cost premium, range anxiety, charging
time, lack of consumer awareness
10
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2013
Today’s seminar
11
• Electric vehicles in Asia
• Life cycle impact of EVs
• Reducing impact from cars
BYD E6 electric crossover vehicle
A life cycle perspective is holistic
12
1. Raw materials
2. Component manufacturing
3. Vehicle assembly
4. Transport / distribution
5. Vehicle operation
8. Disposal
10. Recycling
7. Vehicle Maintenance
6. Fuel production & distribution
9. Landfill / incineration
Life cycle of
a passenger
car
Well-to-wheel basis:
EVs are more energy efficient
13
Well-to-tank stages Tank-to-wheel stage
84% 20% η = 17%
31% 85% η = 26%
However, not all EVs are green
14
Short-distance commuter in San Francisco vs. Denver
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Gas ICE HEV PHEV10 PHEV40 BEV100
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns,
gC
O2
/km
Due to charging
Due to petroleum use
Other life cycle phases
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Gas ICE HEV PHEV10 PHEV40 BEV100
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns,
gC
O2
/km
Due to charging
Due to petroleum use
Other life cycle phases
Source: Cheah et al 2011
Impact from electricity generation matters
15
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
India China Malaysia Thailand Singapore Taiwan South Korea Japan
Grid emission factors, kg CO2/kWh
Source: Econometrica 2011
Today’s seminar
16
• Electric vehicles in Asia
• Life cycle impact of EVs
• Reducing impact from cars
BYD E6 electric crossover vehicle
Approaches to reduce impact
Carbon
Fuel
Fuel
Distance
Distance
VehicleVehicles =
Carbon
emissions
from
motor
vehicles
X X X
Low
carbon
fuels
Efficient
cars
Reduce
travel
activity /
demand
Efficient
road
system
17
Passenger vehicle CO2 emission rates
18
Source: ICCT 2012
Low carbon fuels and vehicle technologies
• Take time to penetrate into vehicle fleet and realize fuel use / greenhouse gas
reductions in the transport sector
19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fle
et f
ue
l use
, bil
lio
n li
ters
Baseline: unchanging fuel consumption
Halve new vehicle fuel consumption by 2030
1,552 bil L
Source: Cheah 2010
Supply-side, technical
Solutions. “Easier”,
takes time
Demand-side, socio-economic
solutions. More difficult (?)
Approaches to reduce impact
Carbon
Fuel
Fuel
Distance
Distance
VehicleVehicles =
Carbon
emissions
from
motor
vehicles
X X X
Low
carbon
fuels
Efficient
cars
Reduce
travel
activity /
demand
Efficient
road
system
20
Promoting system efficiency
• Traffic management• Incident management
• Signal control management
• Air traffic operations management
• Optimal driving• Eco-driving programs
• Reduce speed limits
• Truck anti-idling programs
• Connected vehicles
• Advanced traveler information
21
Reducing travel demand
• Car pooling
• Shift fixed cost to variable cost
• Fuel tax, mileage tax (vs. COE)
• Pay-as-you-drive insurance
• Congestion pricing
• Travel alternatives
• Telecommute, alternative schedules
• Transit-oriented development
• Create land use patterns that reduce trip length and frequency
• Develop and promote use of public transportation and non-
motorized modes
• (your good ideas here)
22
Key takeaways
• EVs are a small percentage of total sales, but are growing
• On a life cycle basis, not all electric vehicles are green
• Advances in fuel and vehicle technologies help.
Reducing vehicle travel demand equally important
23
Transport carbon impact by mode
25
Source: WBCSD 2004
40.230 Sustainable Engineering, 2014
+5% +9% +8%
+29%
-10%
+20%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
teri
al p
rod
uct
ion
en
erg
y, G
J
26
More fuel-efficient vehicles tend to require
more resources/energy to produce
40.230 Sustainable Engineering, 2014
27
But still beneficial on a life cycle basis,
given dominance of the use phase