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ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

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Page 1: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

ELEMENT 8

Judgement and Decision Making

Defining Judgement

Defining Decision Making

Decision Making Methods

Page 2: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

AIM & END STATE

• Aim:– To discuss and delve into the concept of

Decision Making• End state:

– To have a greater understanding of some of the limitations to Decision Making and some methods of enhancing it

• References: In the CRM Reference Manual

8.0

Page 3: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

• What is Decision Making?– Decision Making is a complex process

consisting of evaluating alternatives and selecting a course of action

• The process involves seeking information relevant to the decision at hand, estimating possibilities of various outcomes, attaching values to the anticipated outcomes and then deciding on a course of action.

• Sanders and McCormack 1994

JUDGEMENT

8.1

JUDGEMENTCHOICE

Page 4: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

JUDGEMENT

• There are two key types of judgement:– Perceptual (Intuitive)

• Decision based on perception of the environment• Good for simple, common decisions

– Cognitive (Analytical)• Requires more analysis• Used in complex decisions

• What are some examples of the two?

8.1.1

Page 5: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

JUDGEMENT

• Hazardous Attitudes and Judgement– Anti-Authoritarian– Impulsiveness– Invulnerability– Exhibitionist– Resignation

• What do these mean?

8.1.2

Page 6: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

BARRIERS

• Judgement is the evaluation of options• The person doing the evaluation must

have appropriate skills– Knowledge– Skills– Training.

8.1.2

Page 7: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

BARRIERS

• Knowledge– Theory– Empirical

Observation– OJE

• Skills– Innate– Taught– Acquired

• Training– Formal Theory– Formal Prac– OJT– Continuation Trg– Mentored Trg.

8.1.2

Page 8: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DECISION MAKING

• Some DM Concepts (with some aides memoire);– Cognitive Dissonance (Justifying bad decisions)

– Consistency Theory (I am doing God’s work.)

– Commitment (I’m a man of my word!)

– Certainty Effect (Better the devil you know)

– Choice Supported Bias (‘This is what I did before’)

– Confirmation Bias (Justifying your decision)

– Scarcity Principle (“I can’t have him therefore I must have him!)

– Sunk-Cost Effect (“The share price should go up soon!”)

8.2.1

Page 9: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DECISION MAKING

• A hypothesis is an explanation between two or more variables

• Hypotheses usually include a prediction of future events

• Determining Cause is a means of testing a hypothesis

• False Hypotheses are expectations derived from incorrect assumptions...

8.2.2

Page 10: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DECISION MAKING

• False Hypotheses can result from:– High Expectancy of Certain Circumstances– Diverted Attention– Expected Circumstances are desired– After High Concentration– Reflexes were wrong

• Determining Cause– Looking for things that are different or things

that are the same IOT test a hypothesis.

8.2.2.1

Page 11: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DECISION MAKING

• Limitations on DM:– Situational Factors

• Eg Time, Environment, Mechanical, Organisational

– Physiological Factors• Eg Sensory Limitations, Illness

– Psychological Factors• Eg Belief system, Expectation Bias, Hazardous

Attitudes.

8.2.3

Page 12: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DECISION MAKING

• Procedural Tools– Crew Determined DM Triggers

• Equidistant Point / Equitime Point / PNR

– Manufacturer Determined DM Triggers• Land ASAP emergencies• Should/Shall/Must

– Regulator Determined DM Triggers• Rules and Regulations and

Recommendations.

8.2.4

Page 13: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DM MODELS

• DM Process / DM Models– Each situation requiring DM is different but

each DM process – or DM Model – follows similar steps

– The CRM Reference Manual has descriptions of the different DM Models

– The US Army’s Planning Handbook describes the process as follows:

8.2.4

Page 14: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DM MODELS

– Determine the Nature of the Problem– Identify the Problem– Identify what is Necessary to Solve the Problem– Gather Information– Generate Assessment Criteria– Analyse Possible Solutions– Decide on Best Course of Action– Brief the Plan– (Implement the Plan)– Review the Plan if Necessary.

8.3.1.2

Page 15: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DM MODELS

• The following DM Models are in common use: – SADIE /

CLEAR / GRADE

– MIDAS– OODA

• Let’s compare each DM Model

8.2.4

Page 16: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DM MODELS

8.3.1.2

• MIDAS– Used by SA

Country Fire Service to assess a situation and decide on a course of action

• Review and compare MIDAS.

Page 17: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

DM MODELS

8.3.3

• OODA Loop• Observe, Orient, Decide,

Act (repeat ie loop)– Devised by a US fighter

pilot (Colonel Boyd)– Fast decision making tool– Abbreviated DM Model

similar to other models.

Page 18: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

IMPROVING DM

8.3.3

• Keep up your level of training• Keep healthy. DM is affected by your

physical condition• When confronted with a situation:

– Stabilise the situation / Buy time, sell stress.  • Assess the situation• Determine if a solution is known• Assess time factors.

Page 19: ELEMENT 8 Judgement and Decision Making Defining Judgement Defining Decision Making Decision Making Methods

IMPROVING DM

8.3.3

• Use an appropriate DM Model• Task specific discussion • Allocate priorities• Manage workload• Consider contingencies• Keep everyone in the loop • Execute the Plan• Review and adjust the Plan.