Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in

Germany

Hans von StorchInstitut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum

Geesthacht

clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg

hvonstorch@web.de, http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch

Needed:• Separation of popular constructions in the media and

of scientifically valid assessments.• Generally understandable description of recent and

ongoing regional climate change based on scientific results

• Generally understandable description of possible regional climate changes in the future („scenarios“)

• Analysis and derivation of options, from reduction of emissions, to better adaptation, reduction of vulnerability to local mitigation of climate related change.

• Assessment of knowledge on regional climate change (e.g., BACC) derived with scientific methods

These tasks are integrated in “regional climate offices“ and a “Climate Service Center” to improve science-stakeholder interaction in particular regions and on the national/European level

Lund and Stockholm

Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which

is more powerful?Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“

Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some

extent but not completely avoided

Storm count

Knowledge about ongoing change …

Such as shown by the BACC report, or by the weather services, e.g.,

DMI or SMHI

Centered 99%-iles (top) and

annual means of high water

levels at Cuxhaven, Germany.

GKSS in GeesthachtThe CoastDat data set:• Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea

Clients:• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change

www.coastdat.de

Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2030-2040

Scenarios A2, B2, different models

Temperature PrecipitationMax Wind

Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2071-2100

Scenarios A2, B2, different models

Temperature PrecipitationMax Wind

Changing storm surge heights in Cuxhaven und

HamburgWithout subsidence or coastal engineering modifications of the river Elbe.

Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge heights in Hamburg

1. Additional flooding areas

2. Availability of additional polders to be flooded during severe storm surges to cap the peaks of such surges.

3. Additional dissipation of tidal (and surge) energy by narrowing the mouth segment of the estuary

Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm.

The Tidal Elbe concept of Hamburg Port Authority

Gill et al.,2007

A mitigation option: reversing (part of) the urban warming by „regional geo-engineering“

Assessing scientifically legitimate knwoledge claims about regional climate change

Assessments about regional climate change

- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change

- consensus of what is scientifically documented

for+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – done; 2nd report due in 2012+ Hamburg region (underway)+ North Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)+ Laptev Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)

climate consensus reports

in cooperation with HELCOM

Generation & Dissemination of Climate Knowledge

Regional level

National level

North German Climate Officeother regional activities

Climate Service Center (CSC) at GKSS (as national research lab)

Research Results

Information NeedsSocietyEconomyPolitics/AdministrationScience

Bridging the Gap

North German Climate Office

What do we offer?

Communication Communication of of regional climate regional climate change information.change information.

Support Support for correct for correct use and interpretation use and interpretation ofofregional climate regional climate changes scenarios.changes scenarios.

Determination Determination of of informational and informational and interpretative needs interpretative needs among stakeholdersamong stakeholders

Requests for talks

Total number of talks since 2006: 112

Average number of presentations per months.

Jan. 2006-March 2007: 1,0March 2007-Feb. 2008: 4,6March 2008-Jan. 2009: 3,7

Regional level: 69%National level: 19%International level: 12%

Climate sensitive sectors

24%

Organisations22%

Education20%

Politicians and authorities

19%

Science15%

Climate Service Center (CSC)

Climate Service Center (approx. 20 pers)

presently set upSimulation &

Data

Assessment

ConsultingCommu-nication

Federal ministries- of Education and Research (BMBF)- for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BMU)- of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs (BMVBS)

Objectives:• Contact point• Consulting• Generation of Data and Knowledge Base• Active Dissemination

Cooperation with network of existing

institutions

To remember …

• Anthropogenic climate change happens now + here.

• Emerges in temperature and related quantities• Is mainly caused by elevated greenhouse gas

concentrations. • Even a very successful „climate protection“

policy will only limit climate change, not eradicate it.

• A necessity for significant adaptation measures will remain, which needs the administrative and political attention on the regional level.

• Institutions for two-way exchange between science and stakeholders needed.

• Knowledge about regional climate change, impacts and options is needed.