Eli Jacks, Acting Chief, Forecast Services DivisionAnalyze, Forecast and Support Office

Some Non-Haz Simp Items (The NWS Reorg and Consistency)

Binghamton Sub-Regional Workshop

September 24, 2015

New Organizational Structure

HQ LeadershipJohn Murphy, Chief Operating OfficerMing Ji, Director, Office of Science & Tech IntegrationLuis Cano, Director, Office of DisseminationJoe Pica, Acting Director, Office of ObservationsDavid Michaud, Director, Office of Central ProcessingAndy Stern, Director, AFS OfficeJohn Ogren, Acting Director, Office of Chief Learning OfficerDeirdre Jones, Director, Office of FacilitiesBenjie Spencer, Chief Engineer

AFS Office Organization

Analyze, Forecast, and Support Office

Andrew Stern

Analysis and Mission Support DivisionMark Tew (Acting)

Forecast Services DivisionEli Jacks (Acting)

Analysis and Nowcast Branch

(Vacant)

Decision Support Integration Branch

(Vacant)

Digital and Graphical

Information Support Branch (Vacant)

Severe, Fire, Public, and Winter Services

BranchHeath Hockenberry

(Acting) Climate Services

Branch Fiona Horsfall

Water Resources Services Branch

Mary Mullusky

Aviation and Space Weather Services

BranchKevin Stone (Acting)

Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services

Branch Mike Dion (Acting)

AFS Portfolio Office:Executive Officer: Michelle Hawkins (Acting)Portfolio Management: Dawn McClure (Acting)

New : Analysis & Nowcast Branch

Emphasis is on 0-6 hour time period

AFS in the Governance Structure

AFS works with all Leadership within the COO Tree via the Mission Delivery Council (MDC)

AFS works with all OPPSD Portfolio Leadership via the Portfolio Integration Council (PIC)

AFS Portfolio

New Corporate Councils

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Spotlight on Consistency

Types of ConsistencyArealTemporalProcessPolicyMessagingFormattingInternal versus External

Example: Areal Grid ConsistencySnow Forecast along 3 CWA Boarders

Example: Areal WWA Consistency“Walls” & “Donut Holes” in the West

Example: Temporal ConsistencyProduct Shelf Life (location of ZR)

Generated Complaintfrom FEMA HQ

Pre-Decisional

Example: Process ConsistencyDifferences between WFO and National Center Products

SPC Fire Wx ForecastApr 24, 2014

WFO Red Flag Warnings12Z Apr 24, 2014

Example: Messaging ConsistencyA “crazy quilt” of graphicasts and weather stories

Questions for DiscussionWhat is your feeling – consistency versus accuracy?

What opportunities are there to improve forecast & warning consistency?

How about messaging consistency?

What can NWSH do to support you from a policy standpoint to promote consistency?

What additional tools do you need to promote consistency?

Possible solutions - Establish common deadline for collaboration and publishing (per WR model). - Create software that disables publishing if collaboration does not meet tolerance per 10-201 - Create automated national maps with smoothing capabilities for high level use - Encourage national centers to use grids as initial input to their maps. - Common smarttools and data sets across WFOs to better initialize grids. Tighten all grid tolerances to minimize cumulative errors that build over time especially for

derived grids - Define ROC roles in addressing existing inconsistencies ROC staff need to have mediator skills.

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