[email protected] the eu and russian gas: is ukraine a game-changer? based on the joint...
TRANSCRIPT
The EU and Russian Gas:Is Ukraine a Game-Changer?
Based on the joint work with J. Pollak and S.R.
Schubert in ÖGfE Policy Brief
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
Short and medium term: No
Is Ukraine a game-changer?
Long term: Yes
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- There is no short/medium term alternative to Russian supplies
Short term I (economic argument)
EU Natural Gas Suppliers, 2012 Type of transport, 2012
Source: http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_Statistical_Report_2013.pdf
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- Economic interdependency between Russia and the European Union makes further escalations costly
- The EU supplies Russia with a diverse array of machinery, transport equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agricultural products
- Around 75 percent of FDI in Russia originates from the EU
Short term II (political argument)
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- Within next 8-9 years many major gas supply contracts will run out
- During this time the EU can expand its LNG infrastructure and increase its bargaining power towards Russia
Medium Term I
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
Medium Term II
LNG Suppliers, 2012
Source: http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_Statistical_Report_2013.pdf
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- Creating Energy Union Solidarity principle A large scale joint R&D program A transparent system of gas storage Emergency distribution plans
- New infrastructure projects South Stream? Incorporating Turkey as a transit hub for Asian markets
Long Term
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- October 30: a 4.6 bln dollar “winter” package between Ukraine and Russia:
“Unprecedented levels of EU aid will be disbursed in a timely manner, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reassured Ukraine that it can use all financial means at its disposal to pay for gas”
Current developments I
Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htm
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- LNG terminal Klaipeda (Lithuania) to start operating in December (main supplier Norwegian Statoil)
- new LNG terminal in the North Sea (the Commission supports two German companies with €4 million)
Current developments II
Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htm
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- A new structure of the EU Commission in the energy sector
- Energy Union on the main agenda
Future Agenda
[email protected] Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014
- Energy Union as a top priority of the Commission
- Opposition to South Stream as long as Gazprom does not fully adhere to the EU completion law
- A new more assertive tool in negotiating energy prices with third countries
Maroš Šefčovič on his future plans:
Source: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/sefcovic-tells-meps-he-has-vision-eus-energy-union-309359