embracing change. v6.2. sg21.03.16

Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria

Centre for Spatial Information Science (CSIS)

CSIS ROUNDTABLESEMINAR

Presentation By

Simon Gusah

Urban Researcher

Tuesday 9th February, 2016

Ahmadu Bello University


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Introduction (1)

Background: Sustainability & Resilience• Resilience & Sustainability concepts have similar

timespan (since early 1970’s), but aren’t identical• Both entail retention of stocks of resources to

maintain essential function of ecosystems• For ecosystems to be sustainable and for

sustainable development to be achieved eco- and socio-economic systems need to be resilient.

• Key differences: i) Intergenerational Equity; not emphasized in resilience, but is a core value of sustainability, and ii) Methodologically; resilience thinking focuses on responding to external factors and threats, whilst sustainability deals with the co-evolution of embedded components and dimensions.

• Resilience is necessary but not sufficient to achieve sustainability. Resilience is a componentof sustainability, not a potential replacement. (Todorov and Marinova 2011).

Common Model ofSustainable Development

Environment

Liveable

Social EconomicEquitable

Viable

Sustainable

Development



“EMBRACING CHANGE”

URBAN RESILIENCE IN NIGERIA

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Introduction (2)

Structure of the PresentationCONTENTS

1. IntroductionProblem-Opportunity Statements

2. Definition of TermsSustainability & Resilience

3. 100 Resilient Cities (100RC)City Resilience Framework

4. Nigeria’s Resilience OpportunityNorth-East Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation

5. Urban Resilience in NigeriaImplications for Theory, Practice & Policy

6. Conclusions & Recommendationsi) Embracing the Informalii) Achieving More Output with Less Input

RESILIENCE: A DEFINITION“Resilience

is the capacity

of a social-ecological system (SES)

to absorb or withstand perturbations

and other stressors such that

the system remains within the same regime,

essentially maintaining

its structure and functions.

It describes the degree to which

the system is capable of

self-organization, learning and

adaptation.”

Resilience AllianceSource: http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/resilience





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http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/resilience

Problem-Opportunity Statement (1)

Nigeria’s Population Doubles in 25 years

YEAR PopulationMedian

AgeRural/Urban

Split

1965 50, 238,570 18.9 80-20%

1990 95,617,350 17.5 65-35%

2015 183,523,432 17.7 48-52%

2040 350,720,062 19.8 34-66%

2050 440,355,062 21.4 29-71%

Data Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division – World Population Prospects 2012 Revision (Medium Fertility Variant) http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.shtml





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http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.shtml

Problem-Opportunity Statement (2)

Climate Change and/or Conflicts

Basemap: Max Lock Centre, University of Westminster (2011)

Climate Change & Conflict in Nigeria

Source: Aaron Sayne, United States Institute of Peace (2011)

POOR RESPONSE POOR RESPONSE

POOR RESPONSE

Desert Encroachment, Water Shortage

Sea Level Rise

Hypothetical

model of a

vicious cycle

due to poor

responses to

Climate

Change

Resource ShortagesInsufficient land & water

Loss of property

Less oil revenue

Conflict RisksLow economic opportunity

Strained relationships

Worsened relations

b/w citizens &

institutions

Destructive self-help

Climatic ShiftsMore heat, less rain

Higher sea levels

More severe

weather

Secondary ImpactsMore population

displacement

More sickness & death

More unemployment &

less economic growth





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Definitions & Theoretical Framework (1)

Sustainable Development & the SDGsThe Brundtland ReportOur Common Future (1987)

"Sustainable development is

development that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the

ability of future generations to meet

their own needs“Brundtland recognised that economic growth whilst necessary to satisfy human needs, has an adverse impact on the environment.





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Definitions & Theoretical Framework (2)

Resilient Urban Model (Lagos or Abuja?)



Which Nigerian urban model is RESILIENT (capable of “self-organization, learning, adaptation”)?#1. Organic, Chaotic, Prosperous, Inclusive….Resilient? OR #2. Planned, Orderly, Expensive, Exclusive….Resilient?

Crawford S. Holling (1973) first theorised the concept of ecological system resilience, linked to Social-Ecological Systems (SES).

ENGINEERING RESILIENCE: the ability of a material to return to equilibrium or steady state after deformation or stress (i.e. skyscraper swaying in high wind, bridge bending under heavy load)

ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM RESILIENCE: the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different state that is controlled by a different set of processes. A resilient ecosystem can withstand shocks and rebuild itself when necessary. (Resilience Alliance)



1. ‘Lagos’ Model 2. ‘Abuja’ Model

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Definitions & Theoretical Framework (3):

Resilience as an Everyday Concept….





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Case Study: 100RC (1)

100 Resilient Cities (100RC) Challenge

Rockefeller Foundation funded challenge to select 100 global ‘Resilient Cities’ (100RC)

RF to fund the position of a Chief Resilience Officer (CRO) for 2 years and a City Resilience Strategy (CRS)

Helping cities cope with short-term ‘shocks’ & long-term ‘stresses’

In 2014 Enugu became Nigeria’s 1st

‘100RC’ Resilient City.

The cities of Kaduna, Katsina, Kano & Lagos have applied for the final round, to be announced around March 2016.

Kaduna City’s ‘Story’ of Resilience

Former thriving metropolis, long-term stress due to the collapse of textiles & other industry since the 1980’s – triggered unemployment & economic decline for a generation.

Frequent bouts of civil/social unrest ‘shocks’ have occurred, due to underlying ‘stresses’.

New Leadership, under Governor El Rufai, is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of; Peace-Building Initiatives, De-Militarisation & Promoting Community Cohesion.

Source: http://www.100resilientcities.org/





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http://www.100resilientcities.org/


City Resilience Framework (CRF)

4 CATEGORIES; 12 INDICATORS; 48-54 SUB INDICATORS; 130-150 VARIABLES

Category 1: Leadership & StrategyEffective Leadership & Management, Empowered Stakeholders, Integrated Development PlanningCategory 2: Health & WellbeingMinimal human vulnerability, Livelihoods & employment, Safeguards to human life & healthCategory 3: Economy & SocietyFinance including contingency funds, Social stability & security, Collective identity & mutual supportCategory 4: Infrastructure & EnvironmentReliable mobility & communications, Continuity of critical services, Reduced physical exposure

Rockefeller Foundation 100RCCity Resilience Framework





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City Resilience Framework (CRF)What does CRF mean for Nigerian cities? Can CRF fit with local realities?

Informal Economy DominantMost daily transactions take place out of sight/reach of government

Lack of Basic Service CapacitySWM, Traffic Management, Utilities, Public Transport

No City-level AdministrationCity Administration is divided between State and LGAs

No Detailed Record-keepingAd-hoc Management; No Learning, Data or KPIs – can’t fit framework

Learn from Local Systems & Networks Operation. Attune Government to ‘Peoples’ informal ways

Government should Limit Scope of services, focus on core/basics; i.e. Revenue Collection & Maintenance

Governor can Exercise Rightvia Land Use Act: declare Urban Areas and create appropriate City Structure

Engage Local LeadersMai Unguwa etc. collect local data, for upward official collation & analysis

Problems/Limitations Opportunities/Strategies





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Nigeria’s Resilience Opportunity (1)

Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation of N.E.Statistics on the 5-year insurgency:

Total IDPs in 6 NE States: 1,188,018 (149,357 H-holds)

Demographics: 53% F, 47% M; 56% Children, 28% <5y.o.

79% Displaced since 2014, 87% Living with host families

Source: International Organisation for Migration, IOM (February 2016) (http://nigeria.iom.int/dtm)

Source: IOM/NEMA DTM Round II Report February 2015 Source: Victims Support Fund, VSF, Abuja (2015)





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http://nigeria.iom.int/dtm

Nigeria’s Resilience Opportunity (2)

Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation of N.E.Resilience: “Building Back Better”

European Union, United Nations, World Bank RPBA (Recovery & Peacebuilding Assessment) currently on-going (January-March, 2016)COMPONENTS

i) Infrastructure & Social Services

ii) Peacebuilding Stability & Social Cohesion

iii) Economic Recovery

PROCESS

i) Compilation of Data

ii) Consolidation & Draft Synthesis Report

iii) Transitional Recovery Framework

TARGETS

1-2 Years, Stabilization Phase

3-4 Years, Medium-Term Recovery

REBUILDING AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REFORM, FUNDAMENTAL CHANGEThe often invoked ‘Marshall Plan’ not only rebuilt Europe/Germany, it fundamentally changed the nature of relationships between countries. Not merely a ‘financial package’.

ENGAGING WITH COMMUNITIES‘Civilian JTF’ successes show that government with the community is much more effective

FROM VICTIMS TO VANGUARDThis may not be the last time the NE will need to rally. Climate change and other conflicts may follow.

Resilience; from fail-safe to safe-to-fail

NEW URBAN/SPATIAL PATTERNSRural-urban drift likely to accelerate & many may not return to villages, preferring a new life in ‘town’. We must prepare for this shift.





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Urban Resilience in Nigeria

Implications for TheoryRe-conceptualising ‘Sustainable Development’Sustainable Development; an idealised state for both ‘Over-developed’ & ‘Under-developed’ world.The Global ‘North’ and ‘South’ both need a shift, to converge on sustainable growth & consumption.

GLOBAL ‘NORTH’‘Developed World’

GLOBAL ‘SOUTH’‘Developing World’

OVER-DEVELOPEDExcess Consumption

UNDER-DEVELOPEDLack of Basic Services

Reduce Global InequalityHow? “3L”* GROWTH?

“Steady-State” Economy?

*3L Principle: “Long-life, Loose-fit, Low Energy”. Alexander Gordon, 1972

Steady State Economy: http://steadystate.org/discover/definition/





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?

http://steadystate.org/discover/definition/


Implications for Practice“Urban Acupuncture” (Jaime Lerner 2014)Small-scale, targeted urban interventions, which release embedded social and economic energies.

CSIS Supported HANDY Access Laneway Project

3m wide ‘rat-run’to be Expanded to 8m

HANDY Access Laneway

Proposed site for Community Market





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Implications for Policy DevelopmentRe-visit the “Native Authority” Urban Governance ModelEngaging Communities by making better use of traditional (formal/informal) governance structures.

1 Emir of Kano: Jurisdiction is Kano State

44 District Heads (Hakimi):1 per LGA (Gunduma, District). Answer to Emir directly.

1,002 Village Heads (Dagaci):Answer to Hakimi.

6,490 Ward Heads (Mai Unguwa):Answer to Dagaci. Each Mai Unguwa has between 500 to 3,000 people under their area (Unguwa, Ward).

Hierarchical, highly distributed civil society structure, reaches all communities & land markets within the Emirate. The Colonial Native Authority co-opted this indigenous governance framework very effectively. Source: IPRC 2013

EMIR

Hakimi(District Head)

Dagaci(Village Head)

Mai-Unguwa(Ward Head)







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KANO EMIRATE COUNCIL STRUCTURE

Conclusions & Recommendations

1. Government, the Absentee LandlordEmbracing the Informal

Most Nigerians, most of the time, can and do live and operate outside of the government’s knowledge or influence.

The (informal) ‘market’ finds solutions for most of the daily challenges of life (education, health, transport, water, electricity etc.) and this dynamic should be nurtured & adapted, not crushed.

Formal solutions should only be employed if/when they produce better outcomes, not normatively or unreflectively.

Recommendation 1: Informal Market Reform Government should Embrace the Informal;

Lead, Follow, or Accommodate solutions.





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Conclusions & Recommendations

2. Learning from Lord LugardIndirect Rule & Native Authority

Nigeria’s 1st Governor General ‘invented’ Indirect Rule, not as political ideology, but for political expediency.

Colonial Office was unwilling to fund colonies; so, with a £135,000 budget and a handful of ‘Residents’ he created a system to govern millions of Nigerians effectively through their traditional leadership institutions. (Ref: Whittaker CS, 1970/2015)

The (highly effective) Native Authority (NA) system was retained in place post-Independence (1960), only being replaced by the Local Governments after the Local Government Reform (1976).

Nigerian cities today, with growing populations & falling revenues could adopt a form of Lugardian pragmatism;

by tapping into civil-societal structures, networks & platforms.

Recommendation 2: Local Governance Reform

Achieve more Output with less Input;

By more effective civic engagement.





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Thanks for your attention!

“Embracing Change”

Implications for Sustainable Development

Simon GusahMPhil Researcher, De Montfort University

Visiting Researcher, CSIS, ABU Zaria [email protected]

+234 81 55555 260DMU Supervisory Team:

Dr John Ebohon (1st), Dr Jamileh Manoocherhi (2nd)& Prof Adamu Ahmed (Local Advisor, ABU Zaria)





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mailto:[email protected]

References &

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Adger WN (2003) Building resilience to promote sustainability. Newsletter, International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), Global Environmental Change, vol. 2:1-3.

Birkenholtz T (2012) Network political ecology: Method and theory in climate change vulnerability and adaptation research. Progress in Human Geography, Sage Publications, vol. 36, Issue 3:295-315.

Carpenter SR, Westley F, Turner MG (2005) Surrogates for resilience of social-ecological systems. Ecosystems, vol. 8:941-944.

Giddens A (1984) The constitution of society: Outline of the theory of structuration. University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles.

Gunderson LH and Holling CS, eds. (2002) Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature. Island Press, Washington DC.

Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual review of ecology and systematics. 1-23.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part a: global and sectoral aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

IPCR (2013) Perspectives on Traditional African and Chinese Methods of Conflict Resolution, JHP Golwa (Ed.), Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Abuja, Nigeria.

Lerner J (2014) Urban Acupuncture. Island Press.

Martin-Breen P, Anderies JM (2011) Resilience: A Literature Review. Bellagio Initiative, Brighton:IDS

Sayne A (2011) Climate change adaptation and conflict in Nigeria. US Institute of Peace.

Todorov V, Marinova D (2011) Modelling sustainability. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 81(7): 1397-1408.

Urquhart AW (1977) Planned urban landscapes of Northern Nigeria: a case study of Zaria. Ahmadu Bello University Press, Zaria, Nigeria.

Walker B, Holling CS, Carpenter SP, and Kinzig A (2004)Adaptability and Transformability in Social-Ecological Systems. Ecology and Society 9:5

Whitaker Jr. CS (1970/2015) The Politics of Tradition: Continuity and Change in Northern Nigeria, 1946-1966. Princeton University Press.

WCED (1987) Our common future. World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford, Oxford University Press.





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embracing change. v6.2. sg21.03.16

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