emerging growth: mid- decade economic trends university of north texas center for economic...
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Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends
University of North TexasCenter for Economic Development and Research
http://cedr.unt.edu
December 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change
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'01
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-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 2013:2.2%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3Q 2014:3.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
’12 2013 2014
Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Nov. 2014:321,000
Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands
Jan-08
FMAMJJASONDJan-09
FMAMJJASONDJan-10
FMAMJJASONDJan-11
FMAMJJASONDJan-12
FMAMJJASONDJan-13
FMAMJJASONDJan-14
FMAMJJASON-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012 2013 2014
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N0
25
50
75
100
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
Nov. ’14:35,940
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0255075
100125150175200225250
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted
N D J F M A M J J A S O N5%
7%
Nov. ’14:5.8%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2013 2014
O N D J F M A M J J A S O$13.0
$13.5
$14.0
$14.5
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Oct. ’14:$14.87 trillion
2013 2014
Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
$13.0
$14.0
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
O N D J F M A M J J A S O$10.0
$10.5
$11.0
$11.5
$12.0
$12.5
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
2013 2014
Personal ConsumptionIn trillions
Octt. ’14:$12.02 trillion
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions
N D J F M A M J J A S O N$350
$375
$400
$425
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Nov. 2014:$449.3 billion
2013 2014
Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Retail Sales 2008-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2012 2013 201494
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Nov. 2014:106.7Industrial Production
Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
O N D J F M A M J J A S O$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
2013 2014
Oct. 2014:$971 billion
Source: Commerce Department
Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
N D J F M A M J J A S O N0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014
Nov. ’14:1,028,000
Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies
Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
43.8
20.8
Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders
Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands)
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
36.2
20.8
49.6
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O300
400
500
600
New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands)
Oct. 2014:458,000
2012 2013 2014
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Source: The National Association of Realtors
Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units.
2012
2013
2014
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Oct. 2014:5.26 million
2000:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 Low Point Date of Low PointUnited States 62.8 69.3 64.5 40.4 2006 : Q3Los Angeles 40.2 28.3 21.1 1.8 2006 : Q3New York 42.1 29.8 23 5.1 2006 : Q3/Q4Miami 58.8 57.8 54.5 10 2007 : Q1Austin 57.5 64.2 62.9 49.9 2000 : Q4Dallas 65.3 63.4 60.4 53.7 2007 : Q3Houston 66.2 64 61.5 47.4 2007 : Q3San Antonio 63.3 68.7 65.7 46.5 2006 : Q3Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index
Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability
(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)
Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR
ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%3Q 2014:
2.3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.
N D J F M A M J J A S O N-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov. 2014:-0.2%
00
Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)
N D J F M A M J J A S O N-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov. 2014:-0.3%
0
Source: The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2013 2014
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov. 2014:88.7
Consumer Confidence: 2008-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board
Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.
N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N90
94
98
102
106
110
Nov. 2014:105.5
’11 2012 2013 2014
Things to Worry About
Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities European sovereign default Corporate and consumer debt Federal Deficits/Debt Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes Political gridlock Environmental regulations Market volatility
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-$1,900
-$1,600
-$1,300
-$1,000
-$700
-$400
-$100
$200
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars
2012: -$1.09 trillion2013: -$679.5 billion2014 Projected: -$492 billion2015 Projected: -$469 billion2016 Projected: -$536 billion
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.
O N D J F M A M J J A S O$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2013 2014
Oct. 2014:$43.4 billion
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Household Net WorthIn trillions
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14
2Q 2014:$81.5 trillion
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
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'14-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)
Business Bankruptcies
1999 37,884 2007 28,322
2000 35,472 2008 43,546
2001 40,099 2009 60,837
2002 38,540 2010 56,282
2003 35,037 2011 47,806
2004 34,317 2012 40,075
2005 39,201 2013 33,212
2006 19,695 2014 28,319
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Oct. ’14:5.0%
2012 2013 2014
Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009
Aug'29…May'37…Feb'45…Nov'48…
Jul'53…Aug'57…Apr'60…Dec'69…Nov'73…Jan'80…Jul'81…Jul'90…
Mar'01…Dec'07…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
4313
811
108
1011
166
1688
19
Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
Last Data Entry: Oct. 2014Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
198119831985198719891991199419961998200020022004200720092011201385
95
105
115
125
135
Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro
Nov '11
Nov '12
Nov '13
Nov '14
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%Texas U.S.
U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted
U. S. Nov. 2014 = 5.8%Texas Nov. 2014 = 4.9%D/FW Nov. 2014 = 4.6%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Ft. Worth-Arlington MDNonagricultural Employment
Nov. 2013 Nov. 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 938,100 961,900 2.54%Mining, Logging, Construction 62,700 66,000 5.26%Manufacturing 94,200 92,900 -1.38%Wholesale Trade 43,400 48,300 11.29%Retail Trade 105,900 106,400 0.47%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 67,400 72,500 7.57%Information 13,200 12,800 -3.03%Financial Activities 53,700 51,900 -3.35%Professional & Business Services 107,700 116,600 8.26%Education & Health Services 120,200 122,200 1.66%Leisure & Hospitality 104,800 104,800 0.00%Other Services 36,300 37,200 2.48%Government 128,600 130,300 1.32%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Dallas-Plano-Irving MDNonagricultural Employment
Nov. 2013 Nov. 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 2,211,000 2,298,700 3.97%Mining, Logging, Construction 115,500 126,500 9.52%Manufacturing 163,600 163,600 0.00%Wholesale Trade 130,200 135,100 3.76%Retail Trade 228,500 231,400 1.27%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 83,900 91,600 9.18%Information 66,600 67,100 0.75%Financial Activities 197,300 208,800 5.83%Professional & Business Services 388,700 414,900 6.74%Education & Health Services 269,000 278,100 3.38%Leisure & Hospitality 217,800 222,700 2.25%Other Services 76,500 77,500 1.31%Government 273,400 281,400 2.93%
Sales and Use Tax Allocations
2010 2011 2012 2013% Chg 12-13
Allen 24,606,228 27,499,534 29,874,634 31,856,091 6.63%
Arlington 83,143,848 86,127,967 88,941,229 94,043,810 5.74%
Dallas 204,732,898 215,394,908 232,445,766 242,456,290 4.31%
Fort Worth 100,569,555 105,424,832 112,745,846 118,919,449 5.48%
Frisco 40,303,106 44,280,590 49,889,488 58,676,772 17.61%
Plano 58,888,948 66,325,563 68,410,251 69,804,509 2.04%
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Conclusions
The US recession is technically over. Financial sector risk Texas has performed better than nation
We’ve been “lucky puppies” Market / consumer confidence is major headwind Political failure is hurting growth
Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility Housing market will start recovery Local job market growing
Questions?
Contact info:
940-565-4049http://cedr.unt.edu