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Market Briefing:Emerging Markets
Stocks, Bonds, & CurrenciesYardeni Research, Inc.
July 22, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 22, 2020 / Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com
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EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies 1Stock Markets: Americas 2-3Stock Markets: Asia 4-7Stock Markets 8-9US$ Forex Rates: Americas 10US$ Forex Rates: Asia 11Fragile Five 12-13Emerging Markets Bond Yields 14-15
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
7/22
7/22
EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES
Local Currency
US Dollars
Source: MSCI.
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Figure 1.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500
1000
1500
2000
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX*(US$)
* Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 2.
EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies
Page 1 / July 22, 2020 / Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com
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Figure 3.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7/22
EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI(US$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
7/22
ARGENTINA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
7/22
BRAZIL MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1000
2000
3000
7/22
CHILE MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2000
4000
6000
8000
7/22
MEXICO MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
PERU MSCI
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Stock Markets: Americas
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Figure 4.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
7/22
EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI(local currencies)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10000
20000
30000
40000
7/22
ARGENTINA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
7/22
BRAZIL MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
7/22
CHILE MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210000
20000
30000
40000
50000
7/22
MEXICO MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1000
2000
3000
4000
7/22
PERU MSCI
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Stock Markets: Americas
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Figure 5.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
EM ASIA MSCI(US$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
7/22
CHINA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5000
10000
15000
7/22
HONG KONG MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
SINGAPORE MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
7/22
SOUTH KOREA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
5007/22TAIWAN MSCI
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Stock Markets: Asia
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Figure 6.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
400
600
800
1000
1200
7/22
EM ASIA MSCI(local currencies)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
7/22
CHINA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
7/22
HONG KONG MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
7/22
SINGAPORE MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
7/22SOUTH KOREA MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
5007/22TAIWAN MSCI
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Stock Markets: Asia
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Figure 7.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
7/22
INDONESIA MSCI(US$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
THE PHILIPPINES MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
7/22
MALAYSIA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
7/22
INDIA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
7/22
THAILAND MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
50
100
150
200
250
7/22
PAKISTAN MSCI
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Stock Markets: Asia
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Figure 8.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2000
4000
6000
8000
7/22
INDONESIA MSCI(local currencies)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
THE PHILIPPINES MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
MALAYSIA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
7/22
INDIA MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
THAILAND MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
PAKISTAN MSCI
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Stock Markets: Asia
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Figure 9.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
RUSSIA MSCI(US$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
7/22
ISRAEL MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
POLAND MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
300
500
700
900
7/22
TURKEY MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
7/22
HUNGARY MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
7/22
EGYPT MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
7/22
CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
SOUTH AFRICA MSCI
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Stock Markets
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Figure 10.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
RUSSIA MSCI(local currencies)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
7/22
ISRAEL MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
7/22
POLAND MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
50000
100000
150000
200000
7/22
TURKEY STOCK PRICE INDEX
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
7/22
HUNGARY MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1000
2000
3000
4000
7/22
EGYPT MSCI
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
7/22
CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
500
1000
1500
2000
7/22
SOUTH AFRICA MSCI
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Stock Markets
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Figure 11.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2226
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
7/22
MEXICO(Peso/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.15.65.14.64.13.63.12.62.11.61.1.6.1
7/22
BRAZIL(Real/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2280
65
50
35
20
5
-10
7/22
ARGENTINA(Peso/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22900850800750700650600550500450400350300
7/22
CHILE(Peso/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100000
200000
300000
7/17
VENEZUELA(Bolivar Fuerte/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224400
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
7/22
COLOMBIA(Peso/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
7/22
PERU(New Sol/$)
200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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US$ Forex Rates: Americas
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Figure 12.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
7/17
CHINA(Yuan/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
7/17
MALAYSIA(Ringgit/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
7/17
SOUTH KOREA(Won/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2218000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
7/21
INDONESIA(Rupiah/$)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285
75
65
55
45
35
25
7/21
INDIA(Rupee/$, inverted scale)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2245
40
35
30
25
7/21
THAILAND(Baht/$)
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US$ Forex Rates: Asia
Page 11 / July 22, 2020 / Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: FRAGILE FIVE(percent change)
Turkey (-283.6)
India (-36.4)
South Africa (-93.6)Indonesia (-52.0)
Brazil (-149.1)
Latest data thru: 07/22/20
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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Figure 13.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE(US$, percent change)
Turkey (-67.1)
India (24.2)
South Africa (-31.5)Indonesia (-26.1)
Brazil (-37.9)
Latest data thru: 07/22/20
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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Figure 14.
Fragile Five
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE(local currencies, percent change)
Turkey (26.3)
India (69.5)
South Africa (32.5)Indonesia (12.4)
Brazil (54.7)
Latest data thru: 07/22/20
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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Figure 15.
Fragile Five
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
7/22
10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES(percent)
Hong Kong (0.51)India (5.81)Malaysia (2.71)Philippines (2.79)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 16.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
7/22
10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES(percent)
Singapore (0.88)South Korea (1.35)Taiwan (0.45)Thailand (1.24)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 17.
Emerging Markets Bond Yields
Page 14 / July 22, 2020 / Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
7/21
10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES(percent)
Brazil (3.40)Chile (2.82)Colombia (5.36)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
Emerging Markets Bond Yields
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