emerging risk - syed anser hussain naqvi
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EMERGING R
ISK
BY
SYED A
NSER HUSSAIN
,
MBA(HRM)
PRESTO
N UNIV
ERSITY
ISLM
ABAD CAMPU
S,
ISLA
MABAD, PAKIS
TAN
Flood risk grows to unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios considered
From both climate change and socio-economic drivers
‘Intra-urban’ flood risk is confused in governance terms and a lot less quantifiable
Continuing with existing policies is not an option
A very serious threat and a challenge to government and society
KEY FINDINGS OF THE DRIVERS ANALYSIS
How important are managing climate change and Engineering ?
Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios could reduce economic damages by 25%. Engineering only might cost 2X to get the same risk reduction. But we can’t do without it either, so: Integrated flood-risk management must lie at the core of our response.
KEY MESSAGES FROM THE RESPONSES ANALYSIS
Flood risk can be held at present day levels using a broad portfolio of responses
This could cost UK an extra £20bn to 80bn over the next 80 years. This means 2 to 4x the 2004 annual investment level
No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in terms of flood risk reduction and sustainability
Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are implemented ; sustainability and governance are important
We should not eliminate responses but rather aim at producing balanced portfolios that deliver flood risk reduction and sustainability
The time horizon of responsesChoices for responses that have a long lead time:
To implement societal responses with a long lead time sooner
rather than later. This is a precautionary approach to the
increase
in flood risk, or
Rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences later, with
potential cost and sustainability consequences.
Adaptable, reversible and irreversible responses
Choices for managing uncertainty in future flood risk: To favour reversible options; and To favour responses that have high adaptive capacity and allow incremental enhancements; or To face irreversible adverse consequences for flood management.
Summing up, building a portfolio of responses
“How we use land, balancing the wider economic, environmental and social needs against creating a legacy of flood risk.How we manage the balance between state and market forces in decisions on land use.Whether to implement societal responses with a longer lead time; or rely increasingly on bigger structural flood defences with potential economic, social and environmental costs.How much emphasis to place on measures that are reversible and those that are highly adaptive.”
Final messages Flood risk is set to increase under all scenarios, through climate, economic and governance drivers We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions on global emissions and national governance. There are potentially affordable and sustainable portfolios of responses, with which we can pull back risk to present day levels We will still need to double or quadruple the current annual spend on FRM We need to plan now for future risks, and develop our policies, science and skills.
PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
Costeffectiveness
Robustness
Environmentalquality
Precaution
society
environment
economy
Socialjustice
Flood Risk
DEFINING THE METRICSCost effectiveness• The cost effectiveness of implementing the response option
Social justice• The impact of action on different types of household
Environmental quality• The impact on biodiversity and the area and quality of habitats
Robustness• The ability of the response actions to cope with uncertainty
relating to socio-economic factors and climate change
Precaution• This metric relates to the ability to cope with extreme events
and operational uncertainty in implementing the responses
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS SCORING
neutral
++
- -
0
Environmental Quality
Social Justice
Robustness
Precaution
Flood risk
Cost Effectiveness
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS – A TYPICAL EXAMPLE
Pre-event Measures
World Markets
Global Sustainability
National Enterprise
Local Stewardship
Flood Risk
Cost Effectiveness
Environmental Quality
Social Justice
Precaution
Robustness
++
0
--
• Flood preparedness planning
• Communication and education
• Flood-risk mapping
• Flood plans
• Flood log books
• There are 12 failures under World Markets and 13 under National Enterprise
• The responses themselves do not necessarily lead to social injustice, it is the way that they are potentially applied
• This raises questions in relation to how the responses are delivered together with compensation and relocation
CLOSING MESSAGES ON SUSTAINABILITY
• No emerging responses score well across all scenarios in terms of flood risk reduction and sustainability
• A portfolio of measures is required to deliver effective flood risk management that is sustainable
• Most concerns relate to the way that flood responses are implemented rather than the responses themselves that’s why governance is so important In developing policy and projects, we should not
eliminate any responses a priori but produce balanced
portfolios of structural and non-structural responses
that deliver flood risk reduction and sustainability
Background
New and Emerging Risks at Work – Occupational Safety and Health (OSH)
Consortium composed of 18 European agencies:Germany: BAUA and DGUVFinland: Institute of Occupational HealthSchweden: Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research, FAS
Goals: Enhancing quality and cooperation in the OSH research; synergistic effects and improved flow of information
Joint call in 2009
Start of the project: may 2010
Subsidy amount : 300.000 € in Germany, ….in Sweden; … in Finland
Why focus on leaders' behaviours? Why focus on leaders' behaviours?
Psychological disorders as reasons for sick leave have dramatically increased in the last years
Due to changing nature of work: Increasing importance of psychosocial risk factors
Leaders impact health and well-being of employees in many ways:
task assignment (complexity, autonomy, time pressure)
feedback
social support
participation in decision making
Research on Leadership and Health – in a Research on Leadership and Health – in a nutshellnutshell
The supervisor-subordinate relationship has been reported as one of the most common sources of stress in organizations
LMX, and Transformational leadership as concepts are currently dominating the field of research, but there are also potential negative consequences!
Leaders behaviours can be either a direct predictor for employees health and well-being, or plays a moderating role between stressors, and strain
1. Description of the samples in every country2. Reliability and validity of the scales used3. Differences in perceived leadership between
countries4. Differences in occupational well-being between
countries5. Relationships between leadership and well-
being indicators6. Conclusions
Outline
1. Leadership climate: leaders provide clarity in goals, supply information and feedback, carry out changes at work successfully, promote employee participation and control
2. Transformational leadership: leaders act as role models, provide attractive vision of future, encourage independent thought, pay attention to individual development
3. Authentic leadership: leaders genuinely desire to understand their own leadership to serve others more effectively
4. Fair leadership: leaders treat their subordinates fairly and equally
5. Health-promoting leadership: leaders support employees’ autonomy and participation and take active role in solving conflicts
6. Abusive leadership: leaders show hostile verbal and nonverbal behaviors, excluding physical contact
Leadership Scales
• The samples differ between the countries which limits conclusions.• Leadership is generally perceived as most positively in Sweden
and most negatively in Germany; Finland falls in between.• Occupational well-being is lowest among the German employees,
although the Finnish employees have highest turnover intentions.• Health-promoting leadership shows highest correlations with well-
being indicators in every country (r = |.26-.48|), and leadership climate is the second one (r = |.20-.40|).
Conclusions
CYBER TERRORISM AND ITS THREATS
WHAT IS CYBER TERRORISM An attack that undermines the confidentiality or availability of a computer, information resident on it. Some offences under Computer Misuse and Cybercrime Act 2003: Unauthorized access to data Access with intent to commit offences Unauthorized access to and interception of computer service Damaging or denying access to computer systemThe Intelligence Bureau(IB) has warned regarding the cyber threat •Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam warned in a 2005 lecture regarding the cyber terrorism•Cyber crime experts say this is a dangerous scenario.
POSSIBILITIES OF CYBER TERRORISM
• The cyber terrorism is likely to be fought in three stages.
First the enemy would bring down the control systems of defense .
Secondly, they would look to attack financial services .
Finally, nuclear Power plant nerve center
ESTIMATED ENEMY COUNTRIES
Two countries are estimated in cyber attack towards Pakistan. Namely USA, India and Israel.
USA and India are trying to destabilize our economy.
CHILD PORNOGRAPHY
Internet
Internet provides less risk of being identified. Highly organized, global subculture. Many of them are in countries where child pornography is not a priority for law enforcement. What is child pornography? Definition of child.
LACKING OF CYBER SECURITY It is estimated that 5 thousand of corporate networks have
no protection from cracking. In Home the internet facilities still suffers security. Which
causes cyber hacking of the banking of that house Pakistan becoming the developed nation the number of
transactions has made to digital via Internet has increased . The work of almost all branches of the country like economy, energy, transport and communications, banking uses computer networks.
But still we don’t have cyber security.. The breakage of these networks may paralyze the whole
country. Pakistan being IT emerging power is in need of cyber
security
WAY OF SECURITY
• cyber crime police stations must be established soon.
• The recruitment of professionals is must. • The latest updating of security software's must
be done in companies, schools, colleges and other sectors.
• The pirated soft wares must be put to an end.• The Google maps showing the higher security
parts of the nation must be disabled.• The unauthorized GSM Sims must be
deactivated by the mobile companies .• The mobiles with out IP address must be
banned.• The selling of smarter mobiles must be only to
certified people cause the interaction between those mobile cant be tracked.
• The recording between blackberry mobiles must be established.
• The education of the security system must be made from school level to colleges.
• The banning of the sites regarding manufacture of bombs and hacking and other offensive sites must be done.
• The nation is vulnerable to new forms of terrorism ranging from cyber attacks to attacks on military bases abroad to ballistic missile attacks on U.S. cities.
• “Wars in the 21st century will increasingly require all elements of national power – not just the military. They will require that economic, diplomatic, financial, law enforcement and intelligence capabilities work together.”
REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000REAL WORLD EXAMPLE – AUSTRALIA 2000
Maroochy Shire Waste Water Plant – Sunshine Coast
Insider
46 intrusions over 2 month period
Release of sewage into parks, rivers
Environmental damage
Cost of Capability
Availability of Capability
1955 1960 1970 1975 1985
Invasion
Precision
Guided
Munitions
ComputerStrategicNuclear
Weapons
Cruise Missile
Cost & Means of AttackCost & Means of Attack
1945 Today
MissilesICBM & SLBM
BIO-TERRORISM
Bioterrorism is one form of terrorism. Terrorism is defined as the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government or civilian population in the furtherance of political or social objectives.
Terrorists use weapons of mass destruction. These are destructive devices which include bombs, missiles, poison chemicals, disease organisms, radiation or radioactivity at levels dangerous to human life.
Biologic agents are likely to be used by terrorists as weapons because:
They are capable of damaging populations, economies, and food supplies
Certain agents are inexpensive to make They can be directed at a small group of people or an entire population
They can be used to attack people, economies and food supplies
They cause fear, panic and social disruption
CHARACTERISTICS OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS THAT COULD BE USED AS BIOTERRORIST AGENTS
• They have a wide range of effects• They are obtained from nature• They are easily made by relatively
unsophisticated methods• They are invisible to the senses• Their effects may be delayed• They can produce mass casualties
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN A BIOLOGICAL ATTACK AND A NATURAL OCCURENCE
• A biological terrorist attack may mimic a large scale naturally occurring disease outbreak. There are differences. A biological attack:
• Results from a deliberate act• Will be treated as a crime scene• May not be immediately recognized
BIOLOGICAL ATTACK VS. NATURAL OCCURRENCE
May be preceded by verbal or written threats from a terrorist group
May find abandoned spray devices may be found
Claims by a terrorist group to have released a biologic agent
May result in contamination of critical facilities
May expand rapidly from different source cases
Will cause widespread public panic
ROUTES OF ENTRY INTO THE HUMAN BODY
Ingestion
Dermal penetration
Inhalation
AEROSOL INHALATION
The use of aerosols is an efficient way to affect the maximum number of people with a single attack.
BIOWEAPONS RECENT HISTORY
Bio weapons have a long history. Recent uses include:
U.S, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, and the U.S.S.R experiment with anthrax during World War II (W.W.II)
In 1991, Iraq threatens use of bio weapons against U. S. troops in Persian Gulf war
Post W.W.II , NATO and the Warsaw Pact nations had bio weapons programs
• In 1969, U. S. unilateral decision to destroy bio weapons• In 1972, Bio weapons Convention created in which U. S.
and U. S. S. R. were signatories • Possible/probable active offensive bioweapons programs
in N. Korea, Iran, China, Egypt, Algeria, India, Pakistan, Syria, Israel
• In 1986, Bhagwan cult poisons Oregon salad bars with salmonella-715 people sick
• In 1995, Aryan Nation orders plague bacteria from supply house in Maryland and Minnesota Patriots Council members convicted for planning ricin use in assassination attempt.
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS
• There are several types of agents. They are classified as:
• Bacteria• Rickettsia• Viruses• Biotoxins
BACTERIA
• Single celled organisms capable of causing disease. These agents, grown on culture to produce large quantities, can be modified or “weaponized” for greater destruction
• Produces inflammation in tissues and/or toxins
EXAMPLES
• ANTHRAX• SMALL POX• PLAGUE• TYPHOID• CHOLERA• TULAREMIA
RICKETTSIA
• Vector borne (ticks, lice, mosquitos) parasitic form of bacteria
• Diseases are difficult to treat
• Variants exist worldwide
EXAMPLES• TYPHUS• ROCKY MT.
SPOTTED FEVER• Q FEVER• INDIA TICK
FEVER• MEDITERANEAN
TICK FEVER
VIRUSES
• Smaller than bacteria
• RNA or DNA in a protein coat
• Use living cells to reproduce
• Not affected by antibiotics
EXAMPLES• EBOLA• LASSA FEVER• INFLUENZA• VIRAL HEPATITIS• VIRAL
HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS
BIOTOXINS
• Are poisonous by-products of bacteria, fungi, marine animals or plants
• Do not replicate in the host
• Are not communicable
• Highly toxic when delivered as an aerosol
EXAMPLES
• BOTULINUM• STAPHLOCCOCA
L ENTEROTOXIN B
• RICIN
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MOST LIKELY TO BE USED IN A TERRORIST ATTACK
• Bacteria - anthrax, plague, tularemia
• Virus - small pox, viral hemorrhagic fever
• Biotoxin - botulism
ANTHRAX
• Infectious agent: Bacillus anthraces – gram +, spore forming bacteria
• May enter the body from skin (coetaneous), digestive system or by inhalation (most likely route to be used by terrorists)
ANTHRAX• Symptoms: itching, lesions, fever,
fatigue, non-productive cough, respiratory failure and hemodynamic collapse
• Transmission: none person to person except with cutaneous
• Incubation period: 1 to 6 days• Mortality: 5 to 20% percutaneous, 80 to
90% inhalation• Treatment: antibiotics• Prevention: vaccine
PLAGUE
In nature, fleas living on rodents spread infection to humans. As a bioterrorist weapon – inhalation of aerosol leads to pneumonia, sepsis and infections of bodily organs
Infectious agent: Yersinia pestis – a gram neg., non-motile bacillus
May be bubonic ( infection of lymph nodes) or pneumonic (infection of lungs)or septicemic
Symptoms: cough with bloody sputum, fever, chill, shortness of breath
PLAGUE
• Transmission: may occur person to person by respiratory droplet inhalation
• Incubation period: 2 to 3 days• Mortality: 50 to 60%• Treatment: antibiotics• Prevention: vaccine ineffective
against aerosol exposure
TULAREMIA
• A zootomic, bacterial infection caused by Francisella tularensis, a gram negative coccobacillus
• In nature, bacteria is commonly found in ticks living on rabbits and transmitted by handling the animal or by tick bite. Inhalation of aerosol leads to pneumonia and sepsis
TULAREMIA
Symptoms: sudden and influenza-like with fever, chills, headache and nausea
Transmission: not usually person to person
Incubation period:3 to 5 days(range 1 to 14)
Mortality: low unless untreated
Treatment: antibiotics if early, vaccine available
Prevention: in nature, avoid tick bites and using gloves when handling infected animals
BOTULISM• Infectious agent: Clostridium botulinum – a
spore forming, anaerobic bacillus
• In nature, may be food borne, wound, or intestinal. As a bioterrorist weapon, ingestion or inhalation leads to production of the neurotoxin and resulting flaccid paralysis
• Symptom: fatigue, weakness, blurred vision, difficulty in swallowing and speaking, descending muscle paralysis and respiratory failure
• Transmission: none person to person
• Incubation period: 12 to 72 hours
• Mortality: most lethal compound per weight
• Treatment: antitoxins, respiratory support
• Prevention: vaccine available for types A and B
SMALL POX
Infectious agent: Variola virus - Orthopox virus
Declared eradicated in 1980, but stockpiles may exist
Not naturally acquired. It can be disseminated as and inhaled as an aerosol
Symptoms: Fever, muscular rigidity, headaches, and vomiting. Severe cases experience prostration and hemorrhage into skin and mucous membranes
SMALL POX
Rash appears after about three weeks; progresses from macules (initial skin lesions) to papules to pustular vesicles, to scabs
Transmission: may occur person to person by respiratory droplets or skin inoculation. Highly contagious when rash appears
Incubation period: 10 to 12 daysMortality: less than 1% in the minor form and
20 to50 % in the major formTreatment: supportivePrevention: vaccine
VIRAL HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS
These are highly infectious viral illnesses caused by the Filoviruses (Ebola and Marburg), Arenaviruses (Lassa fever), Bunyaviruses (Congo hemorragic fever and Hantaviral disease), and Flaviviruses
Symptoms: vary from one type to the next. They include: sudden onset of fever, muscle aches, headache, followed by vomiting, diarrhea, and rash and internal bleeding
Complications: In severe forms, multiorgan failure occurs, primarily due to hemorrhagic and pulmonary complications
VIRAL HEMORRAGIC FEVERS
Mode of transmission: handling infected wild animals, but may be used as an aerosol bioterrorist weapon
Incubation period: 2 to 21 daysReservoir: gorillas and chimpanzees Transmission: some may be spread person to
person by contact with body secretionsMortality: Ebola rates have reached 90% but
varyTreatment: supportivePrevention: Avoid contact with infected
monkeys or other animal hosts
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