emeseh presentation
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Effect of Climate Change on Africa and Its People: Multiple Stress Factors
Dr Engobo EmesehDepartment of Law and Criminology
Aberystwyth University
United Kingdom
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Climate Change and Africa “Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity”
IPCC 2007, 4th Assessment Report, Chapter 9
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A vulnerable Continent
“All its regions - from the flood prone coastal regions, to the more drought susceptible semi-arid and arid Sahel and Saharan regions- are fragile and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.”
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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Africa and Climate Vulnerability- Factsheet ™ By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people projected to be
exposed to increased water stress. ™Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
with implications for food security and malnutrition Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will
affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa
is projected under a range of climate scenarios . ™ The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Physical Factors Economic Factors
Poverty Dependence on primary sectors
e.g- agriculture is the economic foundation of many countries, employing about 60% of the population (especially those in the rural areas) and accounting for about 30% of GDP
Capacity Deficits and Institutional/Governance Challenges
Multiple Stresses- Internal
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Stressors- External
Global Pressures Climate Change mitigation/Energy Security
Bio- fuels Global Food Security
“Land grabs”
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Case Study- 2012 Floods in Nigeria Nigeria
In West Africa Population- 150 million Climatic Zones- varied
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Worst in decades From early July 2012 – late November 2012 Flooding in most states in the country 7.7 Million affected, over 2.1 million
displaced, 5,800 injured, and 363 people killed.
Facts
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2012 Flood – Most Affected States
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014
Trofani
Agbere
Elemebiri
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Floods in Bayelsa State-
7 out of the 8 LGAs affected 355 Communities affected
All areas along major river banks were submerged. 42,683 houses affected 800,000 persons were directly or indirectly
affected 4,005 fish farms destroyed
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
35 deaths Illnesses due to contaminated sources of drinking Widespread displacement
E.g. the Federal University was forced to evacuate their campus and shut for 2 months
Impacts
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Over 85% of agricultural land Food crops completely destroyed 4,005 fish farms destroyed Equipment (fishing, farming) destroyed or lost
Infrastructure Roads, Bridges, Schools…
Public, Business and Residential Properties
Impacts (2)
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Aerial View of Trofani Community
09/04/23
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A completely submerged house in Igbogene
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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Flood Defence ??
09/04/23
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Sagbama LG Council Secretariat Complex
09/04/23
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Rescuing some personal properties in Biseni
09/04/23
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A Relief Camp for Displaced Persons
09/04/23
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Displaced mother and her children
09/04/23
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Another victim in Azikoro Village
09/04/23
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Yet another in Azikoro, Yenagoa
09/04/23
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Aerial view of a flooded plantation in Elebele
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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On-The-Spot Assessment by NEMA Officials
09/04/23
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Collapsed Imiringi Bridge
09/04/23
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A damaged section of Trofani Road
09/04/23
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Natural Factors Physical, Climate change?...,
Socio/Economic Factors Land Use Patterns, Environmental Degradation, Poverty,
Livelihoods, housing…External
Upper Riparian States water releases from the Lagdo Reservoir in Cameroun,
Contributory Factors
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Responses
Disaster Management and Adaptation Relevant Factors
Costs Capacity Local Knowledge
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Institutional Factors
Multiple Institutions/Agencies Input from various ministries/departments
Environment, Agriculture, Planning, Forestry, Transport, Health, Housing, Water, etc.
Monitoring/enforcement Clear lead role?
conflicts/overlaps Coherent Policy/Strategy?
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
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4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
THANK YOU