employment outlook survey 2005
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1st Quarter 2005
Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyIreland
2
ContentsRepublic of Ireland Employment Outlook
Regional Comparisons 3
Sector Comparisons 5
Global Employment Outlook 9
International Comparisons - Americas 10
International Comparisons - Asia Pacific 11
International Comparisons - Europe 12
About the Survey 14
About Manpower 15
Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the “Net Employment Outlook”.
This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their
location in the next quarter.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland
3
Republic of Ireland
The QuestionHow do you anticipate total employment at your location
to change in the three months to the end of March 2005
as compared to the current quarter? Of the Irish
employers interviewed, 19% said they expect to hire
more people during the first quarter of 2005. Only 4%
expect to reduce their workforce, and 74% anticipate no
change. The Net Employment Outlook therefore remains
at an upbeat +15%.Whilst no meaningful quarter-on-
quarter is recorded at the overall national level, the Net
Employment Outlook is up 12 percentage points
compared to the corresponding period of 2004.
Table 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters
% Increase % Decrease % no change % Don’t know Net employment outlookQ1 2005 19 4 74 3 +15Q4 2004 18 4 76 2 +14Q3 2004 23 5 72 0 +18Q2 2004 16 7 77 0 +9Q1 2004 14 11 75 0 +3
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters
2003 2004 2005
Regional Comparisons
Positive hiring intentions are found in all of the Irish
regions. Employers in Munster and Connaught have the
most optimistic expectations, with those in Ulster and
Dublin holding more cautious views.
As is shown in the following section, whilst quarter
on quarter Net Employment Outlook increases are
observed in only two regions [Dublin and Leinster],
year on year increases are recorded in every region.
Connaught
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
National average
Ulster
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Chart 2: Net Employment Outlook by Region
+ 24
+7
+15
+28
+16
+8
4
Connaught
The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase is recorded in
Connaught where the Net Employment Outlook is up
25 percentage points to a healthy +24%.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 3: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Connaught
2003 2004 2005
Dublin
The trend of increasing optimism observed throughout
2004 ends with the Net Employment Outlook for Dublin
halving since the previous quarter to a level similar to
that recorded at the corresponding period of 2004.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 4: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Dublin
2003 2004 2005
Leinster
Despite a percentage point quarter-on-quarter
decrease, employers in Leinster expect a positive start
to 2005, the Net Employment Outlook up 16
percentage points year-on-year to +15%.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 5: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Leinster
2003 2004 2005
Munster
The greatest year-on-year regional increase is observed
in Munster. With the Net Employment Outlook up 27
percentage points year-on-year and 13 percentage
points quarter-on-quarter, employers here are
expecting active levels of first quarter hiring activity.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 6: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Munster
2003 2004 2005
5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland
Ulster
No meaningful quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year
change is found in Ulster where employers have
cautiously optimistic first quarter hiring intentions.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Chart 7: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Ulster
2003 2004 2005
Sector Comparisons
Employers across all but one sector of the labor market
have positive hiring intentions for the first quarter of
2005. As was the case last quarter, the single
exception is the Restaurants and Hotels [-8%] sector.
Employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade [+24%]
and Electricity, Gas and Water [+21%] anticipate the
greatest optimism regarding the forthcoming quarter.
15
7
19
21
13
3
1
2
-8
6
24
9
Agriculture, etc.
Community, etc.
Construction
Electricity, etc.
Finance, etc.
Manufacturing
Mining & Quarrying
Pharmaceutical
Restaurant & Hotels
Transport, etc.
Wholesale & Retail
National average
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Chart 8: Net Employment Outlook by Sector
6
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Despite a 6-percentage point quarter-on-quarter
decrease in Net Employment Outlook, employers in the
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector have upbeat
expectations regarding the first quarter of 2005.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 9: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
20
2003 2004 2005
Community, Social and Personal
The greatest quarter-on-quarter decrease is observed
in the Community, Social and Personal sector where
the Net Employment Outlook is down 28 percentage
points. Is is noticeable however that employers in this
sector are considerably more positive than at the
corresponding period of 2004 when the Net
Employment Outlook stood 17 percentage points
ower at -10%.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 10: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Community, Social and Personal
20
2003 2004 2005
Electricity, Gas and Water
The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase in Net
Employment Outlook is recorded in the Electricity, Gas
and Water sector where employers anticipate active
first quarter hiring activity.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 12: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Electricity, Gas and Water
20
2003 2004 2005
Construction
Unlike 12 months previously, employers in the
Construction sector anticipate positive first quarter
hiring activity, the Net Employment Outlook standing at
an upbeat +19%
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 11: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Construction
20
2003 2004 2005
7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland
Mining and Quarrying
Employers in the Mining and Quarrying sector
anticipate a stagnant start to 2005 with the Net
Employment Outlook down 15 percentage points
quarter-on-quarter and 12 percentage points year-on-
year to +1%.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 15: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Mining and Quarrying
20
2003 2004 2005
Finance, Insurance, Real Estateand Business Services
Whilst employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
and Business Services sector are upbeat regarding
their first quarter hiring intentions, a notable year-on-
year downturn is observed, with the Net Employment
Outlook down 7 percentage points on the
corresponding period of 2004.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 13: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services
20
2003 2004 2005
Manufacturing
The greatest year-on-year increase in Net Employment
Outlook is observed in the Manufacturing sector. That
said, employers here expect a quiet start to 2005 with
the Net Employment Outlook largely unchanged since
the last quarter at +3%.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 14: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Manufacturing
20
2003 2004 2005
Pharmaceutical
Within the Pharmaceutical sector, employers expect a
slow-paced first quarter with the Net Employment
Outlook down 17 percentage points to +2%. This
does reflect an improvement since the corresponding
period of 2004 when the Net Employment Outlook
stood 7 percentage points lower at -5%.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 16: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Pharmaceutical
20
2003 2004 2005
8
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Solid first quarter hiring activity is expected by
employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector
where the Net Employment Outlook for the current
quarter [+24%] is higher than at any previous time
since the establishment of the survey in Ireland.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 19: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Wholesale and Retail
20
2003 2004 2005
Restaurants & Hotels
Whilst employers in the Restaurants & Hotels sector
have pessimistic expectations regarding first quarter
hiring activity, a notable year-on-year Net Employment
Outlook improvement of 16 percentage points is
observed.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 17: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Restaurants and Hotels
20
2003 2004 2005
Transport, Storage andCommunication
Only modest levels of hiring activity are expected by
employers in the Transport, Storage and
Communication sector where the Net Employment
Outlook stands at +6%.
60
50
40
30
10
0
-10-20
-30
-40
Chart 18: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Transport, Storage and Communication
20
2003 2004 2005
9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe
Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between January and March 2005.
Regional & International Comparisons
Employers in 17 of 19 countries and territories say they
expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, with
12 countries reporting stronger hiring levels compared
to one year ago. New Zealand and Hong Kong
employers once again reported the strongest
anticipated hiring trends for the quarter ahead.
Although employers in both Italy and Germany are
reporting negative Net Employment Outlooks for this
quarter, German employer confidence has improved
since the first quarter of 2004, whilst employer
confidence in Italy has decreased slightly over the same
period of time.
In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted
results reveal continuing employer optimism and solid
hiring levels with all three countries recording year-over-
year improvements. Notably, Canadian and American
employers reported the strongest first-quarter outlooks
in four years.
Net Employment OutlookAMERICAS
CanadaMexicoUnited States
ASIA PACIFIC
AustraliaHong KongJapanNew ZealandSinapore
EUROPE
AustriaBelgium FranceGermanyIrelandItalyNetherlandsNorwaySpainSwedenUK1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK
and the United States.
Q4 2004%
13(17)1
1821(20)1
Q1 2005%
4(18)1
1214(21)1
Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005
-9(+1)1
-6-7(+1)1
Q4 2004%1725112914
Q1 2005%172613308
Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005
0121-6
Q4 2004%475-214-16759
18(14)1
Q1 2005%152-615-131255
14(18)1
Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005
-3-2-3-410-350-4
-4(+4)1
REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Net Employment Outlook
Net Employment Outlook
10
Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across
the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure
anticipated employment trends between January and
March 2005. The overall regional outlook is positive
with employers in all three countries forecasting year-
over-year improvements.
Based on the seasonally adjusted data, employers in
the United States posted the region’s strongest Net
Employment Outlook. U.S. and Canadian employers
reported their strongest first-quarter outlooks in four
years. Mexican employers expect to hire less in the first
quarter than they did at the close of 2004. However,
the hiring outlook is comparable to levels reported at
this time last year.
Americas
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Line shows seasonally adjusted data.
Canada50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Mexico
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Line shows seasonally adjusted data.
USA
11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe
Over 6,000 interviews have been conducted across
Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends
between January and March 2005.
Continued positive hiring activity is expected in all of the
countries surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers in
New Zealand reporting the most positive outlook.
Employers in Hong Kong also revealed optimistic hiring
intentions for the first three months of the year with
their strongest outlook in seven quarters. In Hong
Kong, it is noticeable that Hong Kong’s Net
Employment Outlook has increased at every quarter
since the establishment of the survey. Singapore
employers reported weaker hiring activity compared to
the previous quarter. Employers in Japan revealed a
considerable Net Employment Outlook improvement
year-over-year. Employers in both Australia and
Singapore reveal no meaningful year-over-year changes
in anticipated hiring patterns.
Asia Pacific
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Australia50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Hong Kong
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
2003 2004 2005
Singapore
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Japan50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
This country joined the survey in Q2 2004.
New Zealand
12
Over 10,000 interviews have been conducted across
11 European nations to measure anticipated
employment trends between January and March 2005.
The overall regional Net Employment Outlook for
Europe is positive with only employers in Italy and
Germany continuing to reveal negative hiring intentions
for the quarter ahead. However, 6 of the 11 countries
anticipate decreases in year-over-year outlooks.
Employers in Ireland and the UK continue to report the
most buoyant hiring intentions in Europe with Ireland
reporting a considerable year-over-year improvement.
Employers in Norway are very upbeat about first-
quarter hiring intentions, reporting the highest level ever
recorded for the country. Employers in Germany,
although forecasting a negative outlook for the quarter
ahead, are less pessimistic than they were in the first
quarter of 2004. Notably, in the next three months
French employers are anticipating the weakest hiring
levels since the survey began in this country.
Europe
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
2003 2004 2005
Austria50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Belgium
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
France50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Germany
13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Ireland50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
2003 2004 2005
Italy
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Netherlands50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Norway
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Spain50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-202003 2004 2005
Sweden
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Line shows seasonally adjusted data.
2003 2004 2005
UK
14
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforce during thenext quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40 yearsand is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity inthe world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey:Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area offocus.Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the onlyforward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast employmentover the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focuson retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived allof its information from a single question.Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which it isconducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower’s customer base.Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 35,000public and private employers across 19 countries and territories tomeasure anticipated employment trends each quarter. Thissample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectorsand regions to provide more detailed information.
MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using avalidated methodology, in accordance with the highest standardsin market research. The research team for the 19 countries andterritories where the survey is currently conducted includesManpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization Researchand Analysis Division of Right Management Consultants - anindependent operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World andGrupo IDM. The survey has been structured to be representativeof each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/-4.2%.
In Ireland, the national survey is conducted by Right ManagementConsultants and includes 562 employers. With this number ofinterviews, the margin of error for the Ireland Survey is +/-4%.
Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net EmploymentOutlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andsubtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Canada,the United States and United Kingdom to provide additionalinsight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possibleto review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to addseasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future,as more historical data is compiled.
SectorsThe industry sectors that are reported for each country in thisreport are representative of the local economy. In some areas ofthe report, we have reported the data in two broad sectorcategories: Industry and Services. These categories are consistentwith standards of other respected international data sources. The“Industry” category includes sectors such as: construction,manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The “Services” categoryincludes wholesale and retail trade; restaurants and hotels;transportation and storage; communication; finance; insurance;real estate; other business services and public administration.
History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the
United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
15
About Manpower IncManpower Inc. (NYSE:MAN) is a world leader in the employment
services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to
meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle.
The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract
recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and
organizational consulting services. Manpower’s world wide
network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries and territories enables the
company to meet the needs of its 400, 000 customers per year,
including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through
improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling
customers to concentrate on their core business activities. In
addition to the Manpower branch, the company operates under
the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson
Wells, Elan, Brook Street and Right Management Consultants.
More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
www.manpower.com.
2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved
About Manpower IrelandManpower is Ireland’s leading provider of workforce management
solutions specializing in permanent and temporary recruitment,
HR services, managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy.
Manpower Ireland’s network of offices allows the company to
meet the needs of local and national customers. This includes
numerous small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger
organisations.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through
improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling
customers to concentrate on their core business.
Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of over 2000 temporary
employees who stay loyal to the company (and it customers)
thanks to best in class employment benefits. These include a
contract of employment and a free e-learning toll offering staff
over 1,000 courses in a diverse range of subjects, keeping
Manpower’s workforce up to date with today’s ever-changing
working environment.
Manpower, 54 Grafton Street, Dublin 2Tel: (+)35 31 645 5200
www.manpower.ie
© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.