empower nd commission - nd pipeline authority · 2020-02-04 · dry natural gas “residue gas”...
TRANSCRIPT
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February 4, 2020
Justin J. KringstadGeological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
EmPower ND
Commission
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
3
Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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Bakken & Three Forks Formations
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Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation
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North Dakota Well Completions and Spatial Development
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2011
1,304 New Wells
2018
1,260 New Wells
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North Dakota Well Completions and Developed Sections
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North Dakota Gathering Pipeline Development
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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Cumulative Remaining Wells – Peak Month Minimum BOPD
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30-Day Initial Production (BOPD)
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Years Remaining* / Minimum Wellhead Oil Price*Assumes 1,200 Completions Per Year and $7MM Well Costs (20% After Tax IRR)
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Statewide Initial Oil Production Rates – 24hr
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Statewide oil Performance
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 12Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide
~4% Improvement
Over 2018
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Presentation Forecast Note:
Many forecasts are in “draft” status as
the EIA has recently released their
2020 Annual Energy Outlook with a
revised oil price forecast. Final
forecast updates/revisions will be
available in mid-February.
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EIA Oil Price Forecasts - Reference Case
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
DRAFT
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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DRAFT
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Rail Destinations Market Share (Oct 2019)
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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Statewide Gas Performance
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 22Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide
~10% Improvement
Over 2018
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Statewide Gas-Oil Ratio
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 23Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide
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NDPA North Dakota Gas Production ForecastAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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DRAFT
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Simple Terms
Blue – Lack of pipelines
Orange – Challenges on existing
infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold
Blue – % flared from zero sales wells
Orange – % flared from wells with at
least one mcf sold.
Nov. 2019 Data – Non-Confidential WellsStatewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Solving the Flaring Challenge – Gas Connections
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Gas Processing Expansions
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31JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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DRAFT
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32JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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DRAFT
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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DRAFT
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Major Gas Pipeline and
Processing Infrastructure
WBI Transmission
Whiting
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WBI Energy – North
Bakken Expansion Project
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Project Highlights
• 63 Miles - 24” Pipeline
• 20 Miles - 12” Pipeline
• $220+ Million
• 350,000 MCFD Capacity (expandable)
• End of 2021 Proposed Completion
• Residue Gas Service From North of
Lake Sakakawea to Northern Border
Pipeline in McKenzie County
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Northern Border Pipeline
*Data Source: Northern Border IPS
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Northern Border Pipeline Market Share
NDPA Calculations Using Northern Border IPS
~1,150+ BTU
~1,035 BTU
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Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 39*Data Source: Northern Border IPS
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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits
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JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 41Map Source: TC Energy Website
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JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 42Map Source: TC Energy Website
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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*
*Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas
DRAFT
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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DRAFT
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Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure
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Northern Border Proposed Expansion Options
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Two Proposed Options:
Stateline/Watford City to Ventura
-580 Mdth Incremental (~525 MMCFD)
-Phase 1: Q3 2021
-Phase 2: Q4 2023
Stateline/Watford City to Cheyenne
-430 Mdth Incremental (~390 MMCFD)
-Phase 1: Q3 2021
-Phase 2: Q4 2022
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WBI Energy Tioga to Emerson Proposal
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Non-Binding Open Season
January 10 - February 28, 2020
-600 Mdth Incremental (~560 MMCFD)
-Proposed In-Service Q4 2023
-330 Miles of 24” Pipe
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Regional NGL Infrastructure
Kinder
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Ma
rath
on
Pe
tro
leu
m
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Raw Natural Gas
(1400+ BTU)Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
“Residue Gas”
Methane
57.67%
NGL’S (8-12 gallons per 1,000 cubic feet
of raw gas)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
“Y-Grade” if NGL’S are left together in
one mix for separation later
Ethane
19.94%
Propane
11.33%
Butane
3.80%
Natural Gasoline
1.29%
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Natural Gas Processing – “Ethane Capture”
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Mole % Source: Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC)
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Raw Natural Gas
(1400+ BTU)Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
“Residue Gas”
Methane
57.67%
Ethane
19.94%
NGL’S (8-12 gallons per 1,000 cubic feet
of raw gas)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
“Y-Grade” if NGL’S are left together in
one mix for separation later
Propane
11.33%
Butane
3.80%
Natural Gasoline
1.29%
Natural Gas Processing – “Ethane Rejection”
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Mole % Source: Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC)
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Bakken – Three Forks Average NGL Content (GPM)
Data Source: Operator Gas Analysis
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Bakken – Three Forks Average NGL Content (GPM)
5252JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 52Data Source: Operator Gas Analysis
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Bakken – Three Forks Average Ethane Content (GPM)
5353JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 53Data Source: Operator Gas Analysis
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Bakken – Three Forks Average Gas BTU
5454JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 54Data Source: Operator Gas Analysis
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Assumed NGL Content for NDPA NGL Forecasts
Mole % Source: Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC)
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North Dakota Captured* NGL’s
5656JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 56*Non-flared NGL’s & Assumes 10 GPM
DRAFT
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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options
57
5757JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 57
DRAFT
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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov
www.northdakotapipelines.com
Contact Information
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 58