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End This Depression Now! Paul Krugman

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Page 1: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

End This Depression Now!

Paul Krugman

Page 2: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Yes, it’s a depression

Page 3: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Good old IS-LM has worked fine

Page 4: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

No crowding out

Page 5: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Liquidity traps rule

Page 6: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Structural foolishness: geography

Page 7: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Structural foolishness: occupations

Page 8: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

But why no deflation?

Page 9: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Nominal rigidity is real

Page 10: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Separated at birth

Page 11: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Keynes was right

Page 12: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Any sign of the confidence fairy?

Page 13: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Not here

Page 14: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Debt: Not good, but not unprecedented

Page 15: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Hysteresis in action?

Page 16: End This Depression Now! - Princeton Universitypkrugman/End This Depression Now!.pdf · Historical Long-Term Unemployment Percent of Total Unemployed Who Were Out of Work for 52 Weeks

Conclusion: Looking for risks in all the wrong places Obsessing over: -- Invisible bond vigilantes -- Not scaring off the confidence fairy Ignoring: -- Huge losses in foregone output and employment -- Long-term damage to economic potential


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