end-to-end risk model for pavia using gem tools
DESCRIPTION
End-to-end calculations using IDCT toolsTRANSCRIPT
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End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM toolsCatalina Yepes Estrada
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
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End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM tools
Masters course on Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation
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GEM Tools and models
IDCT GEM Taxonomy FF Manager OQ engineSHARE model
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Building Portfolio
1255 Buildings40 Students12 Groups (by colors)
≈ 10 hours to survey 100 buildings1220 Buildings were surveyed
Mobile Android and Windows IDCT apps
• detailed per-building exposure dataset
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Building Portfolio
Surveyed buildings according with the
material of the lateral load resisting system
Reinforced concrete
Masonry, unknown
Unreinforced masonry
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Exposure model
16 building typologiesReplacement cost of 388 €/m2Total replacement cost ≈780 M€
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Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
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Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
(Ahmad et al 2010)
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Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
(Ahmad et al 2010)
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GEM Vulnerability Database
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Hazard model from SHARE10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
[g]
PGA ≈ 0.15g
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Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Set of ground motion fieldsExposure model Vulnerability functions
Loss curves Loss maps
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Total loss exceedance curve and Average Annual Loss (AAL)
AAL around 0.6% of the total replacement cost
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Economic loss maps2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years
< 100€
140€ - 190€
300€ - 400€
> 600€
Thousand EUR
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org