enec2008

ECONOPHYSICS, NEW ECONOMICS & COMPLEXITY

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

P R O G R A MP R O G R A M

HYPERION UNIVERSITY and HYPERION RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE

14 – 16 May, 2008

BUCHAREST, ROMANIA

CONFERENCE CHAIRMAN:

Prof. Ion SPÂNULESCU, Ph.D.,

President of the

Hyperion University of Bucharest – Romania

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE:

Prof. Anca GHEORGHIU, Ph.D. – Hyperion University – Romania

Prof. Carmen COSTEA, Ph.D. – Alternative Science Association – Romania

Sc. Res.1. Elena PELINESCU, Ph.D. – INCE – Romanian Academy

Asst. Prof. Florin MUNTEANU, Ph.D. – Center for Complexity Studies –

UNESCO

Sc. Res.1. Camelia PETRESCU – ICPE – Romania

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE:

Assoc. Prof. Nicolae MIHĂILESCU, Ph.D. – Hyperion University – Romania

Prof. Ioan MÂZGĂ - Ph.D. – Hyperion University – Romania

Asst. Prof. Andrei CRISTEA – Hyperion University – Romania

Asst. Prof. Cristina BURGHELEA - Hyperion University – Romania

SECRETAIRE AND REGISTRATION:

Elena PETCU

Claudia COJOCARU

TRANSLATION: Sandra ISTRATE

Olga BALANESCU

Carmen DOMINTE

LOGISTICS: Johny RADULESCU

PROGRAMME SECTIONS OF THE CONFERENCE :

FIRST SECTION – ECONOPHYSICS

SECOND SECTION – NEW ECONOMICS

THIRD SECTION – COMPLEXITY

OUTLINE OF PROGRAMME:

WEDNESDAY, 14 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

930 – 1000 OPENING SESSION

- Opening Address: Prof. Ion Spânulescu, Ph.D.

1000 - 1100 – Econophysics Section – Paper Presentation

1100 – 1130 – Coffee Break

1130 – 1400 – Econophysics Section - continued

1400 – 1530 – Scientific Lunch

1600 – 1830 - Econophysics Section & New Economics Section

THURSDAY, 15 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

900 – 1100 –New Economics Section


1130 – 1400 – New Economics Section - continued

1400 – 1530 – Scientific Lunch

1600 – 1830 - New Economics Section

FRIDAY, 16 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

900 – 1100 – Complexity Section


1130 – 1430 – Complexity Section - continued

1430 – 1500 – Closing Session

1500 - 1630 – Scientific Lunch

SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME:

WEDNESDAY, 14 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

1000 – 1100 – ECONOPHYSICS SECTION1

Moderatori: Anca GheorghiuCarmen Costea

14C – E1 – Description and Analysis of Fuzzy Information

Wolfgang [email protected], MATH-UP.COM

14C – E2 – Analysis of EOQ Model under Imperfect Competition

S.S.Mishra and [email protected], Avadh University

14C – E3 - Some Similarities and Differences between the Scientific Way of

Thinking in Classical Statistics and Statistical Physics

Gheorghe [email protected], University of Pitesti

1130 – 1400 – ECONOPHYSICS SECTION - continued

14C – E4 - Diagonalization Problems in Classical Maxwell Theory and Their

Industrial Applications

Irina [email protected], Inst.of Physics and Math

1 The Lecture Number Stands for:14 – date (14 May)C – Conference Hall E – Conference Section (Econophysics)1 ... n – number of the paper

mailto:[email protected]




14C – E5 - Understanding Econophysics: a Comment on Platen’s Portfolio

Selection and Asset Pricing under a Bench Approach

Carmen [email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

14C – E6 – Econophysics Approach of foreign direct investment strategies

Anda Gheorghiu, Ion Spânulescu, Anca [email protected], Hyperion University

14C – E7 - Statistical Thinking and Statistical Physics

Gheorghe [email protected], University of Pitesti

14C – E8 - Physics Models Through Economy

Livia Pavelescu, Elena [email protected], „Octav Onicescu” National College

14C – E9 - Linear Fractional Modeling of Time Series

Branko Dragovich, Dusan Joksimovic, Jelena [email protected], Megatrend University

14C – E10 – Solution Principles for Nash-Stackelberg Games

Valeriu [email protected], State University of Moldova

1660 – 1830 – ECONOPHYSICS SECTION & NEW ECONOMICS14C – E11 – Tarafdar Type General Equilibrium

Rodica-Mihaela Danet, Marian-Valentin [email protected], Technical University of Civil Engineering

14C – E12 – Eco-Managers in the knowledge – Based Economy.

Characteristics of the Romanian Eco-Managers

Cristina Nistor [email protected], Maritim University of Constanta

14C – NE1 – A New Selective Approach in Marketing; Mass Marketing

versus Direct Marketing

Simona Popoviciu, Ramona Rodica Popa

[email protected], Emanuel University of Oradea










14C – NE2 – The Statistic Analysis of the World Resources and the Oil

Exploitation During 1996-2005

Adriana Anca Cristea, Tatiana Dosescu

[email protected] , Dimitrie Cantemir University

THURSDAY, 15 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

900– 1100 – NEW ECONOMICS SECTION

Moderatori: Alexandru Taşnadi Constantin Popescu

15C-NE0 - The role of expected and perceived inflation in the dynamic of inflation

Implications on the cost of living Elena Pelinescu, Petre Caraiani

Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian AcademyAndrei Silviu Dospinescu

Center for Industry and Services Economics, Romanian [email protected]

15C – NE1 – Internet, a Key Factor of the New Economy WorldwideGheorghe Popescu

[email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

15C – NE2 – Knowledge, a Strategic Asset Able to Encourage Romania’s Competitiveness

Veronica Adriana [email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

15C – NE3 - Changing and Organisational Development in the New Economy

Alexandru Tasnadi, Diana Andreia Hristache, Silvia Elena [email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

15C – NE4 -The Impact of Romania’s Adhering to the European UnionRomeo Ionescu

[email protected], Danubius University of Galati

15C – NE5 -The importance of the professional trening and development of the human ressources in the tourism field

Ramona Gruescu, Elena Lolescu, Daniel [email protected], University of Craiova








1130 – 1400 – NEW ECONOMICS SECTION

15C – NE6 -Tendecies regarding trening and education in tourism

Roxana Nanu, Gheorghe Pârvu, Alexandra Daea [email protected], University of Craiova

15C – NE7 - Romanian Regional Policy in the Context of the New Pattern of

European Union

Gabriela Marchis [email protected], Danubius University of Galati

15C – NE8 - Comunication in Banking Industry

Laura Popa, Camelia Ştefă[email protected], Spiru Haret University

15C – NE9 - Concurrence Principles in the Frame of European Union

Economic Area

Iovan Marţ[email protected], Vasile Goldis University, Arad

15C – NE10 - Complexity in the New Economy

Cristina Raluca [email protected], University of Bucharest

15C – NE11 – Transaction to the New Economics. Properties and

Characteristics

Maria-Cristina Nistor, Florin Iordă[email protected], Maritim University of Constanta

15C – NE12 - The E-Commerce Globalisation, an Undeniable Success

Gabriela Liliana [email protected], Al.I.Cuza University of Iasi

1600– 1830 – NEW ECONOMICS SECTION15C – NE13 - The dematerialization of the activities and the new type of

economic increase and development








Amelia Boncea, Cecilia [email protected], Constantin Brancusi University

15C – NE14 – The Neuromarketing – an adjuvant of the traditional marketing

techniques

Cristina [email protected], Hyperion University

15C – NE15 – The Importance of Human Resources in the New Economy

Ana Maria [email protected], Hyperion University

15C – NE16 - TIC-Implementation- Key Premise in order to Integrate SMEs

on the Knowledge Economics

Cornel Someşan, Alexandra Roş[email protected], Vasile Goldis University, Arad

15C – NE17 – Studies about safety and hazard of GSM cellular phones

Tudor Niculescu, Cornel [email protected], Ministry of Defence

15C – NE18 – The basic limits for radiofrecuency emission

Cornel [email protected], Ministry of Defence

15C – NE19 – Public and private partnership for urban development

Ileana Budisteanu, Simona Bara, Alexandra Antal, Ustinia [email protected], CDCAS

FRIDAY, 16 MAYCONFERENCE HALL – 6 FLOOR – CORPUS A

900– 1100 – COMPLEXITY SECTION

Moderatori: Andreea MitroiCristina Burghelea

16C – C1 - The Image in the Revolution of Expectation








Constantin Popescu, Alexandru Taş[email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

16C – C2 - The Use of Data Identification Technologies in Logistics

Ala [email protected], Traist Branch of JV “Estind” Chisinau, Moldova

16C – C3 - Increase the precision determinating of mobile phone in 112

urgency system

Florin Reut, Tudor [email protected], The Advanced Technology Institute

16C – C4 - The “Time” Factor

Costel-Ioan [email protected], Al.I.Cuza University of Iasi

16C – C5 - Impact Analysis for risk in Information Systems

Floarea Baicu, Alexandra Maria Bacheş[email protected], Hyperion.University

16C – C6 - The semiophysical Communicational Model and Transdisciplinary

Knowledge

Ion G. [email protected], Emanuel University Oradea

16C – C7 - Parallel Artificial Neural Network for edge localization and

contour integration

Florin Ţenea, Tudor [email protected], Ministry of Defence

1130 – 1430 – COMPLEXITY SECTION - continued

16C – C8 – Issues associated with 112 locating tracking

Florin [email protected], The Advanced Technology Institute

16C – C9 – The Impact of Creativity Management on Organizational

Performances

Ana Maria Grigore









[email protected], The Academy of Economic Studies

16C – C10 – The Generalized Algoritm for Solving the Multiobjective

Fractional Transportation Problem of “Bottleneck” type

Alexandra [email protected], Moldova State University

16C – C11 – Work migration abroad and its effects in an emmergent market

economy

Iuliana Matache, Daniela [email protected], Hyperion University

16C – C12 – A classification of some environment and socio-economic

indexes by using a singular value decomposition method

Ştefan Ştefănescu, Poliana Ştefă[email protected], University of Bucharest

16C – C13 – Statistics analysis and modelling Romanian foreign balance of

payments, 2000-2007

Calcedonia [email protected], Hyperion University

16C – C14 – Risk Management in Economics

Andrei Cristea, Tiberiu [email protected], Hyperion University

16C – C15 – Two Sides of the Mimic Model of the Underground Economy

Corina Maria Ene, Andreea [email protected], Hyperion University

16C-C15 - APPLICATIONS OF THE IMPLICIT FUNCTION PRINCIPLE

Alina Olteanu, Octav Olteanu

[email protected]; [email protected], "POLITEHNICA" Univ. of Bucharest









Opening Address

by ChairmanIon SPÂNULESCU

ENEC - 2008

ENEC - 2008

The economic amplifier model can be very well applied for modeling the economic development based on the initial investments both at the micro and the macroeconomic levels. So, for the electronic amplifier with the bipolar transistor in CE configuration (fig1), the output current IC(mA) as a function of input current, IA (µA), therefore, βgiven by Eq.(1), has a linear dependence resulting a constant value for β (Fig. 2a).

ENEC - 2008

Under normal conditions and economic policies by applying theeconomic amplifier model for the investments one may see thatthe incomes as a function of inputs (investments, materials etc.)are also a linear or near linear function (Figs. 2b and 3) justifying the econophysics model we have proposed.

An example of applying of the economic amplifier model onmanufacture level (microeconomic level) is given in figure 2b, where the total incomes as a function of initial and annualinvestments and expenses are represented. As if can be seenfrom figure 2b, the ratio between total incomes and expenses(including investments), meaning , economic β has a monotonous rising dependence, near a straight line.

ENEC - 2008

ENEC - 2008

The economic amplifiermodel can be also very wellapplied on themacroeconomic level. A good example is given in figure 3 where thedependence of the InternalBrut Product (I.B.P.) of Romania as a function of the capital accumationbetween 1990-2003 years isrepresented. As it can beseen from figure 3, theresulting function has a nearlinear dependence. Themedium value of 5.19 for theeconomic β at national levelis calculed.

ENEC - 2008

ENEC International Conference will be organized every year. So, we are looking forward to seeing you here again next year, in Bucharest with original works and papers for ENEC-2009, and also in the next years, right here, at Hyperion University.

Finally, I wish you a great success, and I wishsuccess also to ENEC-2008 Conference, andplease, enjoy your beautiful, fruitful andsuccessful staying in Bucharest, Romania.

ECONOPHYSICS

© 2008, MATH-UP.COM Dipl.-Ing. Wolfgang Ecker-Lala page 1 of 10

Dipl.-Ing. Wolfgang Ecker-Lala Landesstrasse 58 A-3441 Ranzelsdorf Mail: [email protected] Phone: (+43)(0)699 11 50 34 71


Description and analysis of fuzzy information

by Dipl.-Ing. Wolfgang Ecker-Lala, MATH-UP.COM

Overview

Results of measurements and observations are important information. This information is even more

than only numbers or numerical vectors. One of the problems are that a lot of information is imprecise

or fuzzy.

Even in the 15th century Nikolaus von Kues (Cusanus) stated the “basically non-avoidable

impreciseness of measurements”. The physician Robert von Mayer (1814-1878) said that numbers are

the basis of an “exact science”. Galileo Galilei asked for “measure all which can be measured and to

make things measurable which cannot already be measured”.

Very often a part of uncertainty is included in information. In most of these cases it is caused by a

lingual uncertainty which we all already found have in our life. E.g. we say that a management of a

company is “experienced”, “already experienced” or “not experienced”. This is a typical example of

basis information of some rating systems which are used in banks.

The mathematical description of such information - using exact real numbers – is not possible. Even

“obvious exact” information is in fact fuzzy if we have a closer look on it.

Types of uncertainty or fuzziness which is included (very often hidden) in information are

• Randomness

• Errors of measurements

• Uncertainty in used models

Of course this uncertainty or fuzziness can be caused by combinations of the types which are listed

above.

It is within the “nature of a complex system” that some information is “fuzzy”. So it is very important to

be able to describe it in mathematical models in order to be able to describe complex systems.

Description of fuzzy numbers

If we try to analyze information or observations we always use numbers. As mentioned before most of

the available information or observations are not exact but fuzzy. Based on the idea of Karl Menger

(1902-1985) a set can be characterized by an indicator function. So if we have a set A which is subset

of M the indicator function is defined by

MA ,0,1 M :IA ⊂→

M x Afor x 0Afor x 1

(x)IA ∈∀

∉∈

=




1951 Menger published his idea of fuzzy sets. Now we have to consider how fuzzy numbers can be

described.

Definition 1:

A fuzzy subset A* of a set M is described by a so called membership function (.)*Aµ which is

[0,1] M :* →Aµ

A fuzzy set A* is called normalised if

1)x( : M x *A=∈∃ µ

Similar to this we can describe a fuzzy number x* by a characterizing function.

Definition 2:

A real function (.)*xξ is called a characterizing function of a fuzzy number x*, if following

conditions are fulfilled:

(1) [ ]0,1 R :* →xξ

(2) ( ]1,0∈∀δ the δ-cut δξδ ≥∈= )(::)( ** xRxxC x is a finite, non-empty

and closed interval. So )( *xCδ is always a compact interval.

Examples for characterizing functions are

• Characterizing function is a trapezoid

This figure shows a δ-Cut )(xC *δ also.




• A non-continuous characterizing function

• A continuous characterizing function

• An indicator function which describes a real number




• An indicator function for the interval [a,b] with R∈ba,

If there is n-dimensional information we describe it by fuzzy vectors. Fuzzy vectors are described by

vector characterizing functions.

Definition 3:

A function (.,...,.)*xξ of n real variables is called a vector-characterizing function of a n-

dimensional fuzzy vector x* if following conditions are fulfilled:

(1) [ ]0,1 R : n* →xξ

(2) ( ]1,0∈∀δ the δ-cut δξδ ≥∈= )(::)( ** xRC x

nxx is a simply connected

and compact subset of nR .

Even very interesting is to consider functions of fuzzy numbers. For this we do the following definition.

Definition 4:

The supremum of a function kn RR :f → over an empty set nR⊆∅ is defined as zero.

0: : )f(sup =∅∈xx

If we have to do some statistical methods of observations which are fuzzy we have to do it very often

on functions of these observations. So we have to consider an enhancement of real functions even to

be able to operate with functions of fuzzy numbers.




Principle of enhancement:

For a real function kn RR :f → the characterizing function (.,...,.)*yξ of a fuzzy vector

)f( ** xy = is defined by

)f( : R if 0

)f( : R if )f( : )(sup:)(

n

n*

*

=∈¬∃

=∈∃==

yxxyxxyxx

y xy

ξξ

for all kR∈y and assumed that (.,...,.)*xξ is the characterizing function of x*.

In the following picture an application of this principle is shown.

Mathematical operations on fuzzy numbers

Now we have to consider how operations on fuzzy numbers have to be defined. Each result of such an

operation is a fuzzy number. So it is obvious that even the result of an operation on fuzzy number is

identified by a characterizing function.

So the fuzzy operation *2

*1

* xxx ⊕= can be seen as function 2121 xx)x,f(x += . According to the

“principle of enhancement” the characterizing function of the sum of two fuzzy numbers can be

calculated as

xx xand )x,(x : x))(x),(min(sup(x)x)( 212

21xxx *2

*1

*2

*1

* =+∈==⊕

Rxx ξξξξ

R∈= y : y))-x(y),(min(sup *2

*1 xx

ξξ




For the multiplication of fuzzy numbers *2

*1

* xxx ⊗= which is like 2121 xx)x,f(x ⋅= the product of

two fuzzy numbers is given by

xx xand )x,(x : x))(x),(min(sup(x)x)( 212

21xxx *2

*1

*2

*1

* =⋅∈==⊗

Rxx ξξξξ

A special case is ** xy ⊗= λ . Here the characterizing function is

yx and x: x)(sup(y)y)( *** x =⋅∈==⊗

λξξξλ

Ryy

=

≠⋅=

−

0 if (y)I

0 if )y(

0

*1x*

λ

λλξ

If we now consider the MIN-function of a fuzzy number we have to define it by using δ-cuts of the

characterizing function of this fuzzy number. So if Ci,δ is the δ-cut of *ix with

[ ]δδδ ,,i, ,C ii ba= , ( ] n1,...,i ,1,0 =∈δ

the δ-cuts of [ ]*n

*1 x,...,xmin are defined as

( ]0,1 min,minC ,n1,...,i,n1,...,i∈∀

=

==δδδδ ii ba .

The characterizing function (.)ξ of the fuzzy [ ]*n

*1 x,...,xmin is given by

( ]R∈∀⋅=

∈x x)(Imaxx)( C0,1 δ

δξδ

In the same way we get the MIN-function. The δ-cut of the fuzzy MAX-function is defined as

( ]0,1 max,maxC ,n1,...,i,n1,...,i∈∀

=

==δδδδ ii ba

The characterizing function (.)ξ of the fuzzy [ ]*n

*1 x,...,xmax is given by

( ]R∈∀⋅=

∈x x)(Imaxx)( C0,1 δ

δξδ

Statistical Analysis of fuzzy information

If we now try to describe fuzzy observation in a statistical way, we will get for the

upper limit of the fuzzy relative frequency

n

KK iin

∅≠∩=

)x(C : x#)(h

*j

*j

,

_δ

δ

lower limit of the fuzzy relative frequency

n

KKh ii

n

⊆=

−

)x(C : x#)(

*j

*j

,

δ

δ

where




#...is the number of elements in the set

and

Ki…are disjunctive classes

The δ-cut of the fuzzy relative frequency )(*in Kh can be calculated as follows

( )

=−

)(h),()(C ,

_

,

*ini

nin KKhKh δ

δδ .

The empirical distribution function of fuzzy observations is defined by

Rdtt

dttF

n

ix

x

x

n

i

i

∈∀⋅= ∑∫

∫=

∞

∞−

∞− x )(

)(

n1x)(ˆ

1

*

*

*

ξ

ξ

where *n

*1 x,...,x are fuzzy observations

and

(.)(.),..., **1 nxx ξξ are the characterizing functions of the fuzzy observations

and

we assume that

n1,...,ifor 0)(* =≠∫∞

∞−

dttix

ξ .

If we have a mixture of normal and fuzzy observations we get

( ] Rdtt

dttyI

nF

l

ix

x

xk

iixn

i

i

∈∀⋅+⋅= ∑∫

∫∑

=∞

∞−

∞−

=∞− x

)(

)(

n1)(1x)(ˆ

11,

*

*

*

ξ

ξ

where

kyy ,...,1 are normal observations

and *l

*1 x,...,x are fuzzy observations

And

nlk =+ observations in our sample

and

(.)(.),..., **1 nxx ξξ are the characterizing functions of the fuzzy observations




and

we assume that

n1,...,ifor 0)(* =≠∫∞

∞−

dttix

ξ .




Examples

The following examples show that fuzzy observations are in almost every topic where we believe that

observations are exact.

Impossibility of exact data definition The loss caused by black economy cannot be estimated to due non available information. Even the

definition of “black economy” is a very fuzzy one.

Different information Different vendors of the same product will sell with different prices. So we cannot answer the question

of THE PRICE of a product. THE PRICE of a product can be described by the min and max value

which we already know.

Limited precision of analyzers All analyzers which are used to measure continuous values have a very limited scale and even limited

precision. Digital analyzers have a finite number of decimal digits on their displays.

Missing objective scale The value of a building or a valuable is influenced by attributes of the person who gives estimation for

this. Even if we evaluate the quality of a management we are influenced by our own opinion.




Literature

Reinhard Viertl, Dietmar Hareter:

Beschreibung und Analyse unscharfer Information Springer Wien - New York

ISBN3-211-23877-8

Reinhard Viertl:

Einführung in die Stochastik 3., überarbeitete und erweiterte Auflage

Springer Wien - New York

ISBN3-211-00837-3

Statistical Modeling, Analysis and Management of Fuzzy Data (Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing)

Physica-Verlag

ISBN 3-7908-1440-7

Arnold Kaufmann, Madan M. Gupta:

Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic – Theory and Applications Thomson Computer Press

ISBN 1-850-32881-1

Analysis of EOQ model under imperfect competitionS.S.Mishra and P.P.Mishra

Department of Mathematics and StatisticsDr.R.M.L.Avadh University, Faizabad - 224001, UP, India

Email : sant [email protected]

AbstractDynamics of market economy is closely influenced not only by the price

elasticity of demand but also by the nature of the market structure. The marketstructures include perfect competitions, imperfect competitions, oligopoly andmonopoly etc. In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyze economicorder quantity under the market structure of imperfect competition and differentanalyses have been presented under the specific imperfect structures. Finally,numerical demonstration of the model has also been added to elucidate the useof the model under consideration.

1 Introduction

The problem of price determination for an EOQ model under imperfect compe-tition is of central importance in the field of inventory control and management,especially such kind of models which study the dynamics of the market economyover the time. Since perfect competition is an ideal situation of market struc-ture and generally is not found in real life. For this reason, imperfect marketstructure imperatively needs to be investigated to meet the demands of realexisting marketing system, for example, vide Robinson [8] and Chamberlin [2].Imperfect structure is a glaring reality in the economy of marketing system andis unanimously defined by eminent economists as

1. This is the structure where marginal revenue do not equal to price of anitem.

2. Demand is imperfectly elastic.

3. There should not be large number of buyers and retailers in the marketfor that particular item.

4. Firms are not free from joining and escaping from the market.

5. There should not be full knowledge of marketing by buyers and retailers.

6. Market should not be near to the production system.

7. Production system should not be fully dynamic.

8. Only one producer or only one seller of product should be in the market.

1

9. There are no close substitutes of product present in the market.

10. More Constraints and many difficulties should be present in the entranceof industry.

There are some particular type of imperfect competitions such as monop-olistic competition in which price is higher as compared with that of perfectcompetition. Monopoly is said to exist when there is only one producer or sellerof a product which has no close substitutes or competitive.But when there existssome producers or sellers of same product in the market, this market structureis known as oligopoly. For example, there is only one company manufacturingthe toothpaste of Binaca in India but it is not called monopoly because othersubstitutes are available in the market like Colgate, Pepsodent and Forhans etc.An imperfectly competitive firm cannot sell as much as it wants at the goingprice. It must recognize that its demand curve slopes down and that its out-put price will depend upon the quantity of the goods produced and sold. Anoligopoly is a structure with only a few producers, each recognizing that itsown price depends not merely on its own output but also on the actions of itsimportant competitors in the industry. An industry with monopolistic compe-tition has many sellers producing products that are closed substitutes for oneanother. Each firm has only limited ability to affect its output price which isbriefly presented as

Imperfect CompetitionCharacteristic Perfect Competition Monopolistic Oligopoly Monopoly

No. of firms Many Many Few One

Ability to affect price None Limitted Some Considerable

Entry barriers None None Some Complete

Example Fruitstallsin Covent Garden Cornergrocer Cars deBeers

There are few researchers such as Bonanno and Giacomo [1] analyzed gen-eral equilibrium condition under imperfect competition and Hommes and Cars[4] gave the case of the cobweb and illustrated adaptive learning and roads tochaos. Goeree et.al [3] explained about the heterogeneous beliefs and gave newconcept about cobweb in the non-linear form of price. Hommes [5] focused onthe dynamics of the cobweb model is considered under adaptive expectationsand nonlinear supply and demand. Hommes [6] again worked on cobweb dy-namics under bounded rationality. Hommes et.al [7] discussed the expectationdriven price volatility in an experimental economy under cobweb phenomenon.Maskin et.al [9] defined a theory of oligopoly considering its dynamic nature.Mishra and Mishra [10] emphasized on the price for an EOQ for deterioratingitems with the dependency of stock as well as number of selling points in themarket under perfect competition. Mishra et.al [11] elaborated a fuzzified dete-riorating inventory model with breakdown of machine and shortage cost. Peter[12] performed the testing for an unstable root in conditional and structuralerror correction in his model.

Steven[13]provided a deep insight of monopolistic competition with outsidegoods. Schinkel et.al [14] presented an exhaustive investigations on imperfect

2

competition laws. Srinivasan et.al[15] in their work suggested the applicationsof equilibria as well as price normalization in International trade under im-perfect market structure. Sonnemans et.al [16] worked on the instability of aheterogeneous cobweb economy in which a strategy experiment on expectationformation. Tuins [17] gave brief concept of oligopoly dynamics with their mod-els and tools and further Baumol [18] also emphasized on the operation analysisand its economic theory. In this paper, an attempt has been made to determinethe EOQ under imperfect competition and specific cases such as cobweb phe-nomenon, price and production monopoly, Lerner’s measure of monopoly powerand wage determination under monopsony have been analyzed. Marginal rev-enue and marginal cost along with price elasticity approach have been employedto determine the EOQ of the model.The present work is presumably believedto provide better insight to the inventory managers engaged in this field.

2 Description of model

The theory of imperfect competition as monopoly envisages a large number ofquite small firms so that each firm can neglect the possibility that its own deci-sions provoke any adjustment in another firm’s behavior. We also assume freeentry and exit from the industry in the long run. In these respects the frame-work resembles our earlier discussion of perfect competition. In monopolisticcompetition the long-run tangency equilibrium occurs where each firm’s demandcurve is tangent to its average cost curve at out-put level at which MC equals toMR. Each firm is maximizing profits but just breaking even.There is no furtherentry or exit. Imperfect competition refers to all situations in which individualfirms believe that they face downward-sloping demand curves. The most impor-tant forms of imperfect competition are monopolistic competition,oligopoly andpure monopoly. Monopolistic competitors face free entry and exit to the indus-try, but are individually small and make similar though not identical products.Each has limited monopoly power in its special brand.In long-run equilibrium,price equals average cost but exceeds marginal revenue and marginal cost at thetangency equilibrium. Oligopolists face a tension between collusion to maximizejoint profits and competition for a large share of smaller joint profits. Collu-sion may be formal, as in a cartel, or informal. Without creditable threats ofpunishment by other collusive partners, each firm is likely to face a consider-able temptation to cheat. One of the most important characteristics of demandfunction is what is known as its elasticity. According to the law of demand,the change in price and demand are in opposite direction and it is a commonexperience that price changes affect the demand for different commodities in dif-ferent degrees. In other words, demand for some commodities is more sensitiveto price changes than is the demand for others. For example, demand for neces-sities decreases very little when their prices rise whereas only and slight increasein the price is known as price elasticity of demand. Price elasticity of demand isdefined as the value of the ratio of the relative(or proportionate) change in thedemand to the relative(or proportionate) change in the price. Mathematically,

3

we define it ase = − pt

Qdt

dQd

dP ;Where, negative sign shows that demand and price move in opposite direc-

tion.Followings are important characteristics which are noteworthy in the context

under consideration.

1. Price elasticity of demand is always positive.

2. Demand is sometimes called over elastic or under elastic according as e > 1or e < 1. If e = 1,elasticity is called normal.

3. Demand for necessities or conventional necessities is inelastic or less elasticwhile for luxuries it is elastic.

4. Demand for goods having substitutes is elastic.

5. Demand for goods having several uses is elastic.

6. Goods for which demand can be postponed have elastic demand.

7. Demand for jointly demanded goods is comparatively less elastic.

8. Elasticity of demand varies with changes in income.

9. Elasticity of demand depends on levels of prices.

The following notations have been used through out the paper:

Qdt =Quantity demanded at time t.Qdt+n =Quantity demanded at time t + n.D =Total demand in whole time horizon.p0 =Initial price at time t = 0.St =Quantity supplied at time t which is decided at time t− 1

to fulfill the demand at time t.Pt = Price at time t.Pt−1 = Price at t− 1.ed = Elasticity of demand at time t.es =Elasticity of supply at time t.MR =Marginal revenue.TR =Total revenue.IMP =Index of monopoly power.Ch =Holding cost.Co =Ordering costCstp =Setup costCr =Raw matterial cost.Cw =Wage per unit time.MC =Marginal cost.t = Instant of time.

4

T =Total time horizon.F (pt) =Total turn-over for commodity at time t.q∗ =The economic order quantity under imperfect competition.b, g are the constant multiples of prices at t and t-1 time.a, h are constants due to constraints in demand and supply respectively.MRP = Marginal revenue of production.MPP =Marginal price of production.V MP =Value of the marginal production.

3 Mathematical Analysis

As we know that in case of instantaneous replenishment of inventory Qdt= St .

In this model, it is assumed that Qdt= bPt + a and supply at that time

St = gPt−1 + h ;From above, it is clear that demand at time t is fulfilled by the supply which

is decided under the view of previous price.Hence,bPt + a = gPt−1 + hbPt = gPt−1 + h− aPt =

(gb

)Pt−1 + h−a

b ;After putting t = 1 in above, we getP1 =

(gb

)P0 +

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)Upon taking iteration for t=2P2 =

(gb

)P1 + h−a

b ; P2 =(

gb

) (gb

)P0 +

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)P2 =

(gb

)2P0 +

(gb

) (h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)for t=3 P3 =

(gb

)P2 + h−a

b

P3 =(

gb

) (gb

)2P0 +

(gb

) (h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

);

=(

gb

)3P0 +

(gb

)2(

h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(gb

) (h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

);

Upon taking iteration till t, we get Pt =(

gb

)tP0+

(gb

)t−1(

h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)+(

gb

)t−2(

h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

)....... +

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

);

Pt =(

gb

)tP0 +

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

) (gb

)t−1 +(

gb

)t−2................ + 1

;

Pt =(

gb

)tP0 +

(h−ag−b

) (g−b

b

) 1−( g

b )t

1−( gb )

; Let g

b < 1

Pt =(

gb

)tP0 −

(h−ag−b

) 1−

(gb

)t

;

Pt =(

gb

)t(P0 +

(h−ag−b

))− h−a

g−b ;

Qdt= bPt + a = b

[(gb

)t

P0 +(

h−ag−b

)− h−a

g−b

]+ a ;

St = gPt−1 + h = g[(

gb

)t−1

P0 +(

h−ag−b

)− h−a

g−b

]+ h ;

∂Qdt

∂t = tb

P0 +(

h−ag−b

) (gb

)t−1;

5

∂Pt

∂t = −t

P0 +(

h−ag−b

) (gb

)t−1;∂Qdt

∂t∂t

∂Pt= −b; (−ve). It shows that price is decreasing function with respect

to quantity.We can express the following as1ed

= −Qdt

Pt

∂Pt

t∂Qdt= 1

b

[b

h( g

b )tP0+(h−ag−b )−h−a

g−b

i+a

( gb )tP0+(h−a

g−b )−h−ag−b

]=

[1 + a

bh( g


g−b

i]ed =

bh( g


g−b

ib

h( g


g−b

i+a

. It is obvious to write that

MR = ∂TR∂Q = ∂(Pt.Qdt )

∂Qdt= pt + Qdt

∂Pt

∂Qdt;...............(1)

Total turn over or total outlay for the commodity is given asF (pt) = pt ×Qdt = TR ;and ∂TR = Pt ∂Qdt

+ Qdt∂Pt........................(2)

Since in case of monopoly ∂P is negative, ∂Q is positive.Hence, it is clear from eqn (1) marginal revenue is less than the price of an

item.From equation (2), we get∂TR∂Pt

= Pt∂Qdt

∂Pt+ Qdt

;

= Qdt

[Pt

Qdt

∂Qdt

∂Pt+ 1

];

= Qdt [1− ed] = Qdt

[1−

bh( g


g−b

ib

h( g


g−b

i+a

]= a = ∂F (pt)

∂Pt; If

a > 0 then e < 1 andddp [F (pt)] > 0 ⇒ F (pt) is increasing function of pt,i.e.,the money value of the turnover increases as the price rises.But if a < 0 then e > 1 and d

dp [F (pt)] < 0 ⇒ F (pt) is decreasing functionof pt, i.e.,

the money value of the turnover decreases as the price rises.

Further, we can express asMR = Pt + Pt

PtQdt

∂Pt

∂Qdt;

MR = Pt + PtQdt

Pt

∂Pt

∂Qdt;

Price elasticity of demand ed = − Pt

Qdt

∂Qdt

∂Pt; since ∂Qdt

∂Pt< 0;

In case of monopoly, we haveMR = Pt

(1− 1

ed

)MR = Pt

(1−

bh( g


g−b

i+a

bh( g


g−b

i );

MR = Pt

[1−

[1 + a

bh( g


g−b

i]];

6

= −aPt

bh( g


g−b

i = −ab ;

MR = −ab ;

When a > 0, it is clear that MR = −ab which is negative and in this

condition, production level will not be equilibrium under monopoly and in thiscase e > 1 and production level will not be at that equilibrium and it is in loss.

So this case is not suitable to any industry.But when a < 0 then MR = (+)ve.This shows that production level will be considerable which is not in loss.In case of imperfect competition marginal revenue is equal to marginal cost

but it is not equal to the price of an item.It is clear from above expression thatmarginal revenue is dependent on price and elasticity of demand.

Moreover, we can haveSt = gPt−1 + h

= g(

gb

)t−1(P0 +

(h−ag−b

))− h−a

g−b

+ h ;

∂St

∂t = − (t− 1) g(P0 +

(h−ag−b

)) (gb

)t−2 = (−ve) i.e. decreasing functionw.r.to time.

∂Pt−1∂t = − (t− 1)

(P0 +

(h−ag−b

)) (gb

)t−2 = (−ve) i.e. decreasing functionw.r.to time.

∂St

∂Pt−1= 1

g (+ve)i.e.increasing function with respect to price.Hence, price elasticity of supply can be given asPt−1St

∂St

∂Pt−1= 1

g

[ h( g

b )t−1(P0+(h−ag−b ))−h−a

g−b

ig

n( g

b )t−1(P0+(h−ag−b ))−h−a

g−b

o+h

];

es = ( gb )t−1P0+(h−a

g−b )−h−ag−b

ghg

n( g

b )t−1(P0+(h−ag−b ))−h−a

g−b

o+h

i

3.1 Inventory model under imperfect competition withcobweb phenomenon

In this case, supply and demand at any time t are equal, quantity of supplyat time t is decided at time t− 1which is based on the price at time t− 1.Let Qdt , Qdt+1 ,Qdt+2 , Qdt+3 ..........Qdt+n are the demands at time intervalst, t + 1, t + 2, t + 3, .......t + nrespectively, quantity demanded at time t isequal to quantity supplied at that time and thus different demands at dif-

ferent times are fulfilled.Total demand in T time horizon is given as

D =n∑

i=0

Qt+i =n∑

i=0

St+i =n∑

i=0

g(

p0 + h−ab−g

) (gb

)t+i−1 − h−ab−g

+ h

Given time horizon, we can find the following costs asIf q is an EOQ thenCarrying cost =CsqT

2

Odering cost = CoDq

Total Cost = Carrying cost + Ordering cost +row material cost;TV C = CsqT

2 + CoDq + Crq ;

7

Total fixed cost is sum of setup cost , Labor cost etc.TFC = CstpT +CωT

TC = CsqT2 + Co

Dq + CstpT +Crq + CωT

From profit optimization, we get∂TC∂q = MC = MR CsT

2 − CoDq2 + Cr = −a

b ; a < 0;

CoDq2 = CsT

2 + Cr + ab ; q =

√CoD

CsT2 +Cr+( a

b )=

√2CoD

CsT+2Cr+( 2ab )

q = q∗ =

√2Co

nPi=0

Qt+i

CsT+2Cr+ 2ab

=

√2Co

nni=0g

n(p0+

h−ab−g )( g

b )t +i−1−(h−ab−g )

o+h

oCsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

=

√2Co

nP

i=0g(p0+

h−ab−g )( g

b )t +i−1−nP

i=0g(h−a

b−g )+nP

i=0h

ffCsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

EOQ =

√2Co

g(p0+

h−ab−g )

nPi=0

( gb )t +i−1−gn(h−a

b−g )+hn

ffCsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

=

√2Co

ng(p0+

h−ab−g )( g

b )t−1(1+ gb +( g

b )2+( gb )3+........+( g

b )n)−gn(h−ab−g )+hn

oCsT+2Cr+( 2a

b )

=

√√√√√2Co

8<:g(p0+h−ab−g )( g

b )t−1

„1−( g

b )n+1«

(1− gb )

−gn(h−ab−g )+hn

9=;CsT+2Cr+( 2a

b )

=

√√√√ 2Co

8<:g(p0+h−ab−g )( g

b )t−1

„1−( g

b )n+1«

(1− gb )


9=;CsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

=

√2Co

g(p0+

h−ab−g )( g

b )t−1 b(bn+1−gn+1)bn+1(b−g)


ffCsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

=√

2Cogt(b−g)p0+(h−a)(bn+1−gn+1)−gnbn+t−1(h−a)(b−g)+hnbn+t−1(b−g)2bn+t−1(b−g)2(CsT+2Cr+ 2a

b )

=√

2Cogt(b−g)p0+(h−a)(bn+1−gn+1)−gnbn+t−1(h−a)(b−g)+hnbn+t−1(b−g)2bn+t−1(b−g)2(CsT+2Cr+ 2a

b )

=√

2Cogt(b−g)p0+(h−a)(bn+1−gn+1)−gnbn+t−1(h−a)(b−g)+hnbn+t−1(b−g)2bn+t−1(b−g)2CsT+2Cr+ 2a

b

EOQ =√

2Cogt(b−g)p0+(h−a)(bn+1−gn+1)−gnbn+t−1(h−a)(b−g)+hnbn+t−1(b−g)2bn+t−1(b−g)2CsT+2Cr+ 2a

b Hence, optimal total variance costTV C∗ = Csq∗t T

2 + CoDq∗t

+ Crq∗tTFC∗ = CstpT +CωTTotal optimal Cost denoted as TC∗

TC∗ = Csq∗t T2 + Co

Dq∗t

+ Crq∗t + CstpT +CwT

8

3.1.1 Lerner’s measure of monopoly power

We define the Index of Monopoly Power asIMP = Pt−MC

Pt;

0 ≤ IMP ≤ 1; IMP shows the power of monopolistic firm at time t. IMP isnothing but it is inverse of price elasticity . It is defined as below

IMP = Pt−MCPt

= Pt−MRPt

;

= ( gb )tP0+(h−a

g−b )−(h−ag−b )+ a

b

( gb )tP0+(h−a

g−b )−(h−ag−b )

; which obviously falls in between o and 1 and

which is given as

0 ≤ ( gb )tP0+(h−a

g−b )−(h−ag−b )+ a

b

( gb )tP0+(h−a

g−b )−(h−ag−b )

≤ 1

This further implies that(gb

)t

P0 +(

h−ag−b

)−

(h−ag−b

)+ a

b ≤

P0 +(

h−ag−b

) (gb

)t −(

h−ag−b

);

and henceab ≤ 0 and a ≤ 0;It shows that monopoly of firm exists under the above condition and in an-

other condition when a ≥ 0 the marginal revenue will become negative so it willbe not suitable for monopoly of the firm.

3.2 Determination of Wage rate under Imperfect Compe-tition

When imperfect competition in product market and perfect competition in La-bor Market

are satisfied thenMRP = MPP ×MRV MP = MPP× Price of an object.SinceMR < Price of an object.MRP < V MP.Under conditions of monopoly or imperfect competition in product market,

assuming perfect competition in the labor market, the labor will get wage lessthan the value of its marginal product, we find that

Cw = MRPL

or Cw = MR×MPPL

Cw = (1− 1e )P ×MPPL;

Since P ×MPPL = V MPL

So,Cw = (1− 1

|e| )V MPL = −aV MPL

bh( g


g−b

iBut whenever in product market, there exists an imperfect competition or

monopoly then the price elasticity is less than one, so in this condition (1− 1e ) <

1; hence, Cw < V MP .Thus,TFC∗ = CstpT +CwT

9

TFC∗ = CstpT + −aV MPLT

bh( g


g−b

iTC∗ = Csq∗t T

2 + CoDq∗t

+ Crq∗t + CstpT − aV MPLT

bh( g


g−b

i

3.3 Wage determination under monopsony

Monopsony means the monopoly to hire the labor or only one individual em-ployer or firm to hire the labor. At the equilibrium state, it is important toknow that MFC is equal to both VMP or MRP and thus

TFC = CwT

4 Numerical demonstration of the model

The following numerical demonstrations are given here:(1) For given parameters p0 = Rs.50, n = 8, a = −50, b = 100, g = 200, h =

100, Ch = Rs.20, Co = Rs.25, Cstp = Rs.10, T = 4 year, Cr = Rs.20V MP = Rs.20 ;

Table-1

t pt ed EOQ Cw TOC(in108)4 822.5 1.0006 4081.98 0.012158 3.294883 410.5 1.0012 2886.51 0.024361 1.645452 204.5 1.0025 2041.23 0.048900 8.204391 101.5 1.0045 1443.6 0.098522 4.07725

0.5 71.33 1.00706 1214.08 0.14019 0.286779

(2)For given parameters p0 = Rs.50, t = 3, n = 8, b = 100, g = 200, h =100, Ch = Rs.20, Co = Rs.25, Cstp = Rs.10, T = 4 year, Cr = Rs.20V MP = Rs.20

Table-2a pt ed EOQ Cw TOC(in108) es(in10−5) MR−60 411.2 1.0015 2885.97 0.0291829 1.9772 2.48069 0.6−80 412.6 1.0019 2884.89 0.0387785 2.64408 2.47836 0.8−100 414 1.0024 2883.79 0.0483092 3.3154 2.47605 1−150 417.5 1.0036 2881.03 0.0718563 5.01341 2.47036 1.5−200 421 1.0047 2878.22 0.0950119 6.7394 2.46477 2

(3) For given parameters a = −200, t = 3, n = 8, b = 100, g = 200, h =100, Ch = Rs.20, Co = Rs.25, Cstp = Rs.10, T = 4 year, Cr = Rs.20V MP = Rs.20;

Table-3

10

p0 pt ed EOQ Cw es(in10−5) MR TOC(in109)100 821 1.00244 4134.55 0.0487211 2.4187 2 1.31409150 1221 1.00164 5089.68 0.03276 2.4878 2 1.5420200 1621 1.00124 5891.96 0.0246761 2.4908 2 2.5943250 2021 1.00099 6597.39 0.0197922 2.49262 2 3.2343300 2421 1.00083 7234.35 0.016522 2.49384 2 3.8744

References

[1] Bonanno and Giacomo, (1990). ” General Equilibrium Theory with Im-perfect Competition,” Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing,vol. 4(4),pp. 297-328.

[2] E.H.Chamberlin,(1930). Theory of Monopolistic Competition (6th edition),pp. 79-80.

[3] Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., (2000). ”Heterogeneous beliefs andthe non-linear cobweb model,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,Elsevier, vol.24(5-7), pp. 761-798.

[4] Hommes, Cars H.,(1991). ”Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The caseof the cobweb,” Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pp.127-132.

[5] Hommes, Cars H.,(1994). ”Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptiveexpectations and nonlinear supply and demand,” Journal of Economic Be-havior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pp. 315-335.

[6] Hommes, C.H.,(1999). ”Cobweb Dynamics under Bounded Rationality,”CeNDEF Working Papers 99-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center forNonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

[7] Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H.,(1999). ”Expectation Driven Price Volatility in an Experimental CobwebEconomy,” CeNDEF Working Papers 99-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

[8] Joan Robinsion,(1930) The Economics of Imperfect Competition, pp.86.

[9] Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, (1987). ”A theory of dynamic oligopoly, III :Cournot competition.

[10] Mishra, S.S. and Mishra, P.P.,(2008) Price determination for an EOQmodel for deteriorating items under perfect competition, Int.J.Computersand Mathematics with Applications. (Article in press) CAMWA: 4216 ,1-20.

[11] Mishra, S.S., Pandey, H. and Singh, R.S.,(2004).A fuzzified deterioratinginventory model with breakdown of machine and shortage cost. Interna-tional Journal of Mathematical Sciences ,3,pp.241-255.

11

[12] Peter Boswijk, H., (1994).Testing for an unstable root in conditional andstructural error correction models,”Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol.63(1), pp. 3.

[13] Steven C. Salop, (1979). ”Monopolistic Competition with Outside Goods,”Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pp.141-156,Spring.

[14] Schinkel, Maarten Pieter & Tuinstra, (2006). ”Imperfect competition lawenforcement,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier,vol. 24(6), pp.1267-1297.

[15] Srinivasan, T.N. & Kletzer, K., (1994). ”Price Normalization and Equilibriain General Equilibrium Models of International Trade Under ImperfectCompetition,” Papers 710,Yale - Economic Growth Center.

[16] Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk,(2004). ”The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategyexperiment on expectation formation,” Journal of Economic Behavior &Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pp. 453-481.

[17] Tuinstra, Jan, (2004). ”Oligopoly Dynamics: Models and Tools: Journalof Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pp. 611-614.

[18] W.J. Baumol,(2003) ,Economic Theory and Operations Analysis, 2nd Edi-tion,pp.342.

12

SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SCIENTIFIC WAY OF THINKING IN CLASSICAL STATISTICS AND STATISTICAL PHYSICS

Senior lecturer Gheorghe Săvoiu, PhD, University of PiteştiMailing address: Calea Bucureşti no. 8 bl. 27 sc. B ap. 5 Piteşti, postal code 110133, Phone: 0745047

085, e-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACTOver the past two decades a lot of Physicists have established careers in the banking and financial activities. Simultaneously during this time, academic physicists have become interested in studying financial markets and the economists in studying statistical physics more generally, and a new subfield has emerged which has become known as Econophysics. These developments have occurred because the modelling, analytical, and computational skills of physicists are exactly the skills needed to study financial markets, the dynamics of the new phenomena in economics and other new domains in a more practical way. However, despite these developments, few Physics graduates and even less Economics graduates are trained specifically in these problem areas that characterised Econophysics. This paper try to investigate why physicists are able to perform financial analysis, and which are the most interesting similarities or differences between the way of thinking in classical statistics and statistical physics. Opportunities exist for students of economics too, but some physicists are more related to apply the new thinking of Econophysics. In addition to this main purpose, the paper is a statistical evaluation of the contemporary domains in Econophysics. The author believes that another important scope and intention of this paper is becomes essentially to draw a repertory of some new domains suitable for the use of Econophysics, which can be reordered along the classical coordinates of Econophysics, but also along the new coordinates of Sociophysics, Indexphysics or the physics of the price indexes (able to measure both inflation, and the specialized stock-exchange evolutions), of Demographysics, or through Econophysics prognosis, a sub domain that combines a better time projection of phenomena, much better calibrated extrapolations and interpolations in the economic, demographical, crime-related, electoral world.

KEY WORDS: statistical thinking, statistical thinking framework, reasoning, Econophysics, statistical physics, model of Econophysics.

I. CONTEMPORARY MEANING OF CLASSICAL STATISTICAL THINKING

Scientific research, practice, national and international institutes are entering a new era, one that focuses on the development and intense use of statistical thinking. The development of statistical thinking is the next step in the evolution of the statistics science as a basic discipline for scientific research. The impetus for this evolution started in the early 1990s with particular people in the American Statistical Association and the quality management field [1]. Aided by recent advancements in technology new statistical thinking means not only a wider view of data but even more than a touchstone at the core of the statistician's art [2]. Speaking about statistical thinking as incarnation of common sense, statisticians can list some important elements of statistical thinking: the need for data and information; the importance of data production and indices or indicators; the omnipresence of variables and variability in the processes; the utilization of a scale for measuring and modeling of variability, the importance of testing hypothesis; the inference from a selected part (sample) to the all investigated population; the final explanation of variation. And so appear beyond the horizon other concepts of statistical judgment, from reliability as a measure of consistency, to

1

statistical and practical significance, from sufficient validity to justify continuance of a scientific research, to factorial analysis or correlation as changes in one variable related to changes in another, etc. Classical statistics is used generally to improve a decision, through a statistical model or a system of statistical indices. And thus statistical thinking becomes the appreciation of uncertainty and data variability and their impact on decision making as well as the use of scientific methods in approaching issues and problems [3].

Fig.1. From Data to Knowledge in Statistical ThinkingSource: www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v10n3/chance.html [4]

Traditionally statistics has been predominantly associated with the analysis stage, and only a few statisticians bring a unique perspective using empirical enquiry cycle.

Data base

Inductive Thinking Hypothesis 2

Deductive Factorial Hypothesis 1 Thinking consequences

Fig. 2. A Statistical Thinking CycleSource: Wild C.J.,Pfannkuch M.,(1999), Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

The new approach of the two modern statisticians from New Zeeland, C.J. Wild and M. Pfannkuch, (Department of Statistics, University of Auckland), was to ask practicing statisticians working on projects what they are doing, in an attempt to identify the key elements of this previously vague but somehow intuitively understood set of ideas. Their interviews led to development of a four-dimensional framework of classical statistical

2

thinking in empirical enquiry: the investigative cycle, types of thinking, the interrogative cycle, and dispositions.

B. Types of Thinking A. Investigative Cycle

D. Dispositions C. Interrogative Cycle

Fig 3. The Fourth Cycles of Statistical ThinkingSource:Wild&Pfannkuch Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

The first cycle concerns the way statistician acts and what he thinks about during the course of a statistical investigation adapted to a PPDAC model (Problem, Plan, Data, Analysis, Conclusions). Clarifying data analysis and conclusions for investigative cycle, appears another structure from the first examination of a data set: (1) begin by graphing the data and interpreting what you see; (2) look for overall patterns and for striking deviations from those patterns, and seek explanations in the problem context; (3) based on examination of the data, choose appropriate numerical descriptions of specific aspects; (4) if the overall pattern is sufficiently regular, seek a compact mathematical model for that pattern [1]. The second cycle contains a number of types of thinking emerged from the statisticians options and were subsequently refined and modified when statisticians applied them to reality. The types of thinking in a statistical approach are: recognition of the need for data (recognition of the inadequacies of personal experiences and anecdotal evidence leading to a desire to base decisions on deliberately collected data is a statistical impulse), transnumeration (forming and changing data representations of aspects of a system to arrive at a better understanding of that system, defined as numeracy transformations made to facilitate understanding when statisticians find ways of obtaining data), variation (decision making under uncertainty from omnipresent variation, extended beyond measuring and modelling to investigative strategies such as randomisation and blocking), distinctive set of models (statistical distinctive set of models, or frameworks, for thinking about certain aspects of investigation in a generic

3

way), context knowledge, statistical knowledge and synthesis (statistical knowledge, context knowledge and the information in data). The third cycle is interrogative cycle illustrated as a generic thinking process in constant use in statistical problem solving. Subcycles for any interrogative cycle are the following checking steps: generate (imagining and brainstorming to generate possibilities, as an individual or in a group, applying this to a search for possible causes, explanations and mechanisms), seek (recalling of internal or external information as a long process of read/see/hear + translate + internally summarise + compare + connect), criticise (criticism phase applied to incoming information and ideas, involving checking for internal consistency and against reference points), judge (decision endpoint of criticism or applying judgement to such things as the reliability of information, the usefulness of ideas, the practicality of plans, the rightness or conformance with both context-matter, statistical understanding, relative plausibility of competing explanations, the most likely of a set of possible scenarios, the need for more research, and the many other decisions involved in building and reasoning from models). The fourth cycle means dispositions emerged from the statisticians at work (curiosity and awareness, engagement, imagination, scepticism, being logical, a propensity to seek deeper meaning, openness, perseverance, etc. Following the approach of Wild and Pfannkuch, it seems that a contemporary definition of statistical thinking includes what a statistician does. These processes clearly involve, but move beyond, summarizing data, solving a particular problem, reasoning through a procedure, and explaining the conclusion. Perhaps what is unique to statistical thinking, beyond reasoning and literacy, is the ability to see the process as a whole (with iteration), including question like “why,” to understand the relationship and meaning of variation in this process, to have the ability to explore data in ways beyond what has been prescribed in texts, and to generate new questions beyond those asked by the principal investigator. As a conclusion of statistical thinking, what professional statisticians have, and amateurs do not have, is precisely that broad view, or overall framework, in which to put a particular problem (mental habits). Under these circumstances even “loss - as Marcus Aurelius urges us - is nothing else but transformation, and that who will not let himself or herself guided by thought, shall be voided by light … [ n.a. - the light of statistical thinking ]”. [5]

II. THE BEGINNINGS OF ECONOPHYSICS AS A STATISTICAL FINANCE

The neologizing of the term Econophysics by Rosario Mantegna and H. Eugene Stanley at the second Statphys-Kolkata Conference in 1995, represents the official document of Econophysics, born as a new, interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary science [6]. Physics has probably had a dominating effect on the development of formal economic theory; however, the historical interdisciplinarity between physics and economics, established through Econophysics, seems very likely to be a model for the future of the multidisciplinary sciences. Transdisciplinarity suggests a deeper synthesis of approaches and ideas from the two main disciplines involved in the Econophysics, during a short or medium period of time. The same importance must be given to all interactions between economics and physics as well as between the two types of scientific researchers and demographers, sociologists, mathematicians, linguistics, etc.

4

All these aspects represent a necessary detailing of the initial thematic presentation, as well as a welcome prologue before the presentation of the historical evolution of contemporary Econophysics. The contemporary stage of development, but especially the dynamics of Econophysics, is really exceptional. Some historical opinions about it maintain that statistical mechanics or physics was developed in the second half of the 19th century by James Clerk Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann, and Josiah Willard Gibbs, but others reveal the role of physics models as the foundations for the standard neoclassical model that current econophysicists seek to displace is much older than two centuries, the best arguments being N.F. Canard’s work, since 1801, where supply and demand were ontologically like contradicting physical forces, or central concept of general equilibrium theory in economics, where its author Léon Walras’ was deeply influenced by the physicist Louis Poinsot, and mostly because the father of American mathematical economics, the well-known statistician Irving Fisher, was a student of the father of statistical mechanics, none else but Josiah Willard Gibbs. But all of these historical opinions agree unanimously the primordial roots in statistical mechanics approach date back to 1936, when Majorana wrote a pioneering paper, published in 1942 and entitled Il valore delle leggi statistiche nella fisica e nelle scienze sociali. First of all, the application of concepts as power-law distributions, correlations, scaling, unpredictable time series and random processes to financial markets was possible only after physicists have achieved important results in statistical mechanics, due to other significant statistical investigations and mathematical formalizations. The oldest example of an adequate law or mathematical distribution to the wealth of individuals in a stable economy belongs to an Italian economist and statistician named Vilfredo Pareto. Secondly, the progress of the financial mathematics realised by Louis Bachelier in his doctoral thesis entitled Théorie de la speculation, since 1900, that quantifies the probability of price changes, and the differences of the logarithms of prices that are distributed in a Gaussian manner, and thus it is an anticipation of Albert Einstein’s or Norbert Wiener’s researches. Three major events underline the evolution of Econophysics, first in 1973, with the appearance of a rational option-pricing formula, like Black & Scholes’ formula, than after 1980, the huge amount of electronically stored financial data readily available, and finally since the 1990s, a growing number of physicists have attempted to analyze and model financial markets and, more generally, economic systems, new interdisciplinary journals have been published, new conferences have been organized, and a lot of new potentially scientific fields, areas, themes and applications have been identified by this new trans-disciplinary science. The researches of Econophysics deal with the distributions of returns in financial markets, the time correlation of a financial series, the analogies and differences between price dynamics in a financial market and physical processes as turbulence or ecological systems, the distribution of economic stocks and growth rate variations, the distribution of firm sizes and growth rates, the distribution of city sizes, the distribution of scientific discoveries, the presence of a higher-order correlation in price changes motivated by the reconsideration of some beliefs, the distribution of income and wealth, the studies of the income distribution of firms and studies of the statistical properties of their growth rates. The statistical properties of the economic performances of complex organizations such as universities, regions or countries have also been investigated in Econophysics. The new real characteristics of Econophysics in a medium and long term will be a result of its new research like rural-urban migration, growth of cities, etc. The real criticism of

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Econophysics is the absence of age variable, because models of Econophysics consider immortal agents who live forever, like atoms, in spite of the evolution of income and wealth as functions of age, that are studied in economics using the so-called overlapping-generations models (Paul Anglin). The first Econophysics models published by physicists in a physics journal were those of Mantegna (1991) and Takayasu (1992), though developed a few years earlier. Even a Monte Carlo simulation of a market was already published in 1964 by Stigler from the Chicago economics school. Nobel laureate of Economics, Markowitz H.M. published too with Kim a model for the 1987, about the crash on Wall Street. After the year 2000, Econophysics has matured enough to allow generalized applications, their field being called sometimes econo-engineering. New domains suitable for the use of Econophysics can be reordered along the classical coordinates of Econophysics, but also along the new coordinates of sociophysics, indexphysics or the physics of the price indexes (able to measure both inflation, and the specialized stock-exchange evolutions), of Demographysics, or through Econophysics prognosis, a sub domain that combines a better time projection of phenomena, much better calibrated extrapolations and interpolations in the economic, demographical, crime-related, electoral, etc. world. The special potentiality of Econophysics will be able to reveal its liaisons to statistics, management, finance-banking, but also to statisticians, bank managers, mathematicians, physicists, linguists, etc. Its innovative and applicative character is also evinced by the careful repertory-drawing of the principal applications of Econophysics, substantiated in the thousands of published papers presented during the international conferences and symposia, and, moreover, through the investigation, in the latter half last decade, of the part played by Econophysics, and its main potential fields of application.

III. ECONOPHYSICS AND ITS FIRST METHOD OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS

Econophysics was from the beginning the application of the principles of statistical physics and than of physics, in general, to the study of financial markets, under the hypothesis that economic world behaves like a collection of electrons or a group of water molecules that interact with each other. The econophysicists have considered that, with new tools of statistical physics, and the recent breakthroughs in understanding chaotic systems, they are making a controversial start at tearing up some perplexing economics and reducing them to a few elegant general principles with the help of some serious mathematics borrowed from the study of disordered materials. The term Econophysics was introduced by analogy with similar terms which describe applications of physics to different fields, such as Astrophysics, Geophysics, and Biophysics. Rosario Mantegna and Eugene H. Stanley have proposed the first definition of Econophysics as a multidisciplinary field or “the activities of physicists who are working on economics problems to test a variety of new conceptual approaches deriving from the physical sciences” [7]. “Economics is a pure subject in statistical mechanics,” says Stanley. “It's not the case that one needs to master the field of economics to study this.”

Another definition more relevant and synthetic considers that Econophysics is an “interdisciplinary research field applying methods of statistical physics to problems in economics and finance”. (Yakovenko VM, 2007) [8].

Another interesting and modern definition considers Econophysics a scientific approach to quantitative economy using ideas, models, conceptual and computational

6

methods of statistical physics. In recent years many of physical theories like theory of turbulence, scaling, random matrix theory or renormalization group were successfully applied to economy giving a boost to modern computational techniques of data analysis, risk management, artificial markets, macro-economy [9]. Thus Econophysics became a regular discipline covering a large spectrum of problems of modern economy.

A large definition of Econophysics describes it like a new area developed recently by the cooperation between economists, mathematicians and physicists, which applies idea, method and models in Statistical Physics and Complexity to analyze data from economical phenomena [10].

Econophysics is actually nothing more than the composition of the words physics and economics, a link between the two completely separate disciplines that lies within the characteristic behaviour exhibited by financial markets similar to other known physical systems. The aim of Econophysics is to understand the universal behaviours of a market. (Alessio Farhadi). There are some different types of Econophysics, too: an experimental or observational type, trying to analyze real data from real markets and to make sense of them, and a theoretical type trying to find microscopic models which give for some quantities good agreement with the experimental facts (Bertrand Roehner, a theoretical physicist based at the University of Paris).

Econophysics is still a new word, even after twelve years, used to describe work being done by physicists in which financial and economic systems are treated as complex systems. Thus, for physicists, studying the economy means studying a wealth of data on a well-defined complex system. The contemporary Econophysics involves in effect physicists doing economics with theories from physics, and this raises the question of how the two disciplines relate to each other and it explains interest rates and fluctuations of stock market prices, these theories draw analogies to earthquakes, turbulence, sand piles, fractals, radioactivity, energy states in nuclei, and the composition of elementary particles (Bouchaud). Today it becomes possible for methods and concepts of statistical physics to have real influence in economic thought, but it is also possible that economical methods and concepts can influence physics thought too. The method of Econophysics defines its main goal in applying method of statistical physics and other mathematical methods used in physics to economic data and economic processes. Why the methods and techniques from statistical physics can be successfully applied to social, economical and financial problems? Could be this the result of the great experience of physicists in working with experimental data gives them a unique advantage to uncover quantitative laws in the statistical data available in social sciences, economics and finance? Is indeed Econophysics bringing new insights and new perspectives, which are likely to revolutionize the old social sciences and classical economics? The study of dynamical systems is mostly based in expressing them in terms of (partial) differential equations which are further solved by analytic methods (or numerically). But this is somehow against our intuitions: we never meet in our life density distributions of our friends, cars, utility functions etc. We have converted integers into a real numbers by averaging over certain areas. This can be done either by averaging over large enough volumes or over long period of times. Statistical physics is a framework that allows systems consisting of many heterogeneous particles to be rigorously analyzed. Inside Econophysics these techniques are applied to economic particles, namely investors, traders, consumers, and so on. Markets are then viewed as

7

(macroscopic) complex systems with an internal microscopic) structure consisting of many of these particles interacting so as to generate the systemic properties (the micro structural components being reactive in this case, as mentioned already, thus resulting in an adaptive complex system).When the first physicists tried to analyze financial markets applying method of statistical physics they did not view these markets as particularly fine examples of complex systems, as cases of complexity in action. Some of them have even believed they are discovering laws or some stability evidence in the form of the scaling laws that Pareto first investigated (but that have been found in a much wider variety of economic observables). In truth, the stability evidence discovered or the empirical distribution is not a stable or definitive one (a conclusive one), because all the markets are characterized by non-stationarity, that is a general feature of adaptive complex systems: “the empirical distribution is not fixed once and for all by any law of nature [but] is also subject to change with agents’ collective behaviour” [12]. Theory confirms that characteristics of complex systems involve three necessary conditions:- complex system must contain many subunits (the exact number being left vague).- subunits must be interdependent (at least some of the time).- interactions between the subunits must be nonlinear (at least some of the time).These properties are said to be emergent when they amount to new complex or systemic structure and an adaptive complex system add the following condition:- individual subunits modify their properties and behaviour with respect to a changing environment resulting in the generation of new systemic properties.Finally the organizing adaptive complex system also add an important condition:- individual subunits modify their own properties and behaviour with respect to the properties and behaviour of the unit system they jointly determine [13-14].

IV. CONCLUSIONS

In a comparison to classical statistical thinking, Econophysics have revealed that heterogeneous in reality must be explained with homogeneous in theory. And this is the main role of method of statistical physics to unify and simplify classical statistical thinking. Classical statistical thinking remains just an application of statistical physics, like in case of the sample and the exhaustive population. Some classical researches of Econophysics through its statistical physics method and Statistics using its statistical thinking deal with the same subjects as follows:-the distributions of returns in financial markets, -the time correlation of a financial series, -the analogies and differences between price dynamics in a financial market -the physical processes as turbulence or ecological systems, -the distribution of economic stocks and growth rate variations, -the distribution of firm sizes and growth rates, the distribution of city sizes, -the distribution of scientific discoveries, -the presence of a higher-order correlation in price changes, -motivated by the reconsideration of some beliefs, -the distribution of income and wealth, -the studies of the income distribution of firms

8

-the studies of the statistical properties of their growth rates etc. The contemporary researches of Econophysics through its statistical physics method and Statistics using its classical statistical thinking deal with:-an interesting niche on the computer, where have established by making models much simpler than most economists now choose to consider even using possible connection between financial or economical terms and critical points in statistical mechanics. (Of course, one needs to be careful with analogies, and model simplifications; many of hese models are heuristic, can help us in understanding principles, and are not necessarily describing the complexity of individual economic cases);- a response of a physical system to a small external perturbation, that becomes infinite because all the subparts of the system respond cooperatively, or the concept of “noise” in spite of the fact that some economists even claim that it is an insult to the intelligence of the market to invoke the presence of a noise term… The power of prediction or the higher level of exactness of the Econophysics remains the most important difference between its statistical physics method and classical statistical thinking. The model of Econophysics is sometimes better than classical statistical model. The future scientific thought will be nothing else but statistical, either it will be a generalized thinking as in statistical physics, or a distinctive classical statistical thinking.

V. REFERENCES

[1] Moore, D. (1990). On the shoulders of giants: new approaches to numeracy (pp. 95-137). L. Steen (Ed.) Washington, D.C.National Academy Press. pp 251-253[2] Wild C.J.,Pfannkuch M.,(1999), Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry, Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, New Zealand, International Statistical Review, pp. 223 - 265[3] Sylwester, D. (1993), Statistical Thinking, AMSTAT News, February [4] Chance B. L.,(2002), Components of Statistical Thinking and Implications for Instruction and Assessment, California Polytechnic State University, Journal of Statistics Education Vol.10,No 3 www.amstat.org / publications/se/v10n3/chance.html[5] Marcus Aurelius (1925), Marci Antonini imperatoris, de se ipso ad se ipsum, Oxford University Press, [6] Chakrabarti BK (2005) Econophys-Kolkata: a short story, in ‘Econophysics of Wealth Distributions,’ Eds. Chatterjee A, Yarlagadda S, Chakrabarti BK, Springer, Milan, pp. 225-228.[7] Mantegna RN, Stanley HE (2000) An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge pp. VIII-IX.[8]Yakovenko VM (2007) Econophysics, Statistical Mechanics Approach to, Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science, Springer http://refworks.springer.[9] Burda Z, Jurkiewicz J, Nowak MA, (2003) Is Econophysics a solid science? Acta Phys. Polon. B34 87. http://www.arxiv.org/abs/cond-matpapernum/0301096[10] Yougui Wang, Jinshan Wu, Zengru Di (2004) Physics of Econophysics, http://www. arxiv .org/abs/ cond-mat/ 0401025, vl, 4 Jan, published in may 15, 2006[11] Stigler GJ, (1964), Public Regulation of the Securities Market, Journal of Business 37, pp. 117 [12] McCauley, JL (2004) Dynamics of Markets: Econophysics and Finance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge[13] Latora, V. and Marchiori, M.: 2002, Is the Boston subway a small-world network?, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 314, pp.109-113.[14] Latora, V. and Marchiori, M.: 2003, Economic small-world behavior in weighted networks, The European Physical Journal B 32, pp.249-263.

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http://www/

http://www.arxiv.org/abs/cond-matpapernum/0301096

http://refworks.springer/

DIAGONALIZATION PROBLEMS IN CLASSICAL MAXWELL

THEORY AND THEIR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS

Irina Dmitrieva

Math. Analysis Dept., Institute of Physics and Mathematics, SouthUkr. State PedUniv.,

Staroportofrankovskaya Str., 26, 65020 Odessa, Ukraine; Phone: + 38 – 048 – 761 00 02;

FAX: + 38 – 048 732 51 03; e-mail: [email protected];

Higher Mathematics Dept., Odessa National Acad. of Telecommunications (ONAT), Kuznechnaya

Str., 1, 65029 Odessa, Ukraine

MSC2000: 35A25, 35G99, 35Q60, 78A25, 78A55

Abstract.

Present results concern the diagonalization problem of the arbitrary n-dimensional operator equations

system over the arbitrary m-dimensional space. The known elements are the arbitrary operators that

act in certain class. The only requirement of the proposed diagonalization method is the operators’

commutativity in pairs.

The proposed algorithm is invariant to the matrix structure of the initial system which may have the

arbitrary block construction, and the diagonalizing procedure acts in the consecutive order beginning

from the external till the last inner matrix block elements.

Moreover, the given method doesn’t depend on the initial and boundary conditions which become

necessary only when the diagonalizing process is finished completely. Additionally, this algorithm

deals only with the operators that form the matrix of the original system. Hence, these operators

explicit expressions are known in advance and the described diagonalizing procedure “knows”

beforehand what kind of operator and when it is applied.

The proposed method and calculus, though are absolutely correct mathematically, are rather simple in

their direct application and do not require from the engineer or some other non-expert the knowledge

of the generalized function theory that is used almost in all diagonalization applied problems even for

the usual linear PDEs systems.

Thus, the present results in their specific case of the PDEs operator system over the classical Maxwell

space were applied to the solution of concrete engineering problems that concerned the signal

transmission in various media.

1. Introduction

It is well known that the majority of real physical processes may be described by the PDEs or by their

systems. That’s why even now the problem of simply applied and mathematically correct algorithm for

the various classes of the PDEs systems’ explicit solution remains quite urgent not only in the current

physics and engineering , but in the applied mathematics as well [1] – [3]. The classical approach here

is the method of integral transformations jointly with the generalized functions theory [2].

In the case of the first studied direction the original PDEs system after application of the corresponding

integral transformation is reduced to the ODEs or algebraic equations system in terms of the initial

functions’ transformants. But when the applied problem is studied by means of the above mentioned

method one must be very cautious in choosing the correct integral transformation. In other words, the

integral transformation has to be chosen correctly not only mathematically but also considering

physical or engineering features of the initial statement.

Turning towards the generalized functions method it should be noted that this approach, though is

very elegant mathematically, remains rather difficult for the non mathematicians at the stage of its

explicit realization. Thus, for example, in monograph [2, p. 127 – 201], even in the simple systems’

case of the differential operator polynomials with constant coefficients from the very beginning the

researcher has to deal with integral transformations which operate in various classes of the

generalized functions, just as: basic, moderate and quickly increased. Hence, when an engineer or

some other non expert even at the stage of system diagonalization procedure uses the both of the

above mentioned methods, he must be very acute in all their mathematical details. Moreover, for each

specific class of systems these approaches are realized in their own way [2].

With the problem of the PDEs first order systems’ solution over the space ( , , , )x y z t the author has

come across investigating the classical electrodynamics objects and Maxwell equations in particular

[4]. Thus, in [5] was considered the case of linear homogeneous isotropic undisturbed media with the

outside currents, and only two main postulates of classical electrodynamics as the following vector

equations were accepted

0

0

CT

a

a

rotH E E j

rotE H

σ ε

µ

= + ∂ +

− = ∂

r r r r

r r (1)

In (1): ( , , , )E E x y z t=r r

and ( , , , )H H x y z t=r r

are the unknown vector functions of the electric and

magnetic field tension; differential operator0

t

∂∂ =

∂; the given vector function ( , , , )

CT CTj j x y z t=r r

describes the outside current sources; the positive constants , ,a a

σ µ ε are the specific conductivity,

absolute permeance and dielectric permeability correspondingly. In [5] this vector system (1) was

reduced to the equivalent system of six PDEs, and each equation held only one unknown scalar

vector component 3

1i iE E

==

r or

3

1i iH H

==

r. In other words, the original matrix system was

diagonalized. Such result was obtained by the consistent application of the corresponding differential

operators to six original equations of (1) that were written in terms of 3

1i iE

= and

3

1i iH

=.

Further, in [6] the arbitrary 6 6× PDEs system, the “complete” Maxwell system (1), which matrix had

no zero elements, was diagonalized by the generalization of the same algorithm.

In [7] the [5, 6] results were applied to the simple case of the differential operator block matrix.

2. The problem statement

In given paper we propose the generalization and analytical formalization of the previous results [5] –

[7] in the case of the arbitrary n-dimensional differential operator systems over the arbitrary finite

dimensional real space Rm

:

1

n

ji i j

i

A F f=

=∑ ( 1, ),j n= (2)

where:1

( ,..., )m

F F x x=r r

and 1

( ,..., )m

f f x x=r r

are the n-dimensional unknown and given vector-

functions that are n s⋅ continuously differentiated in some domain of Rm

; s is equal to the maximum

order of the higher operators’ ji

A derivative for all , 1, ,j i n= and partial differential operators ji

A are

utterly arbitrary. The only requirement of the proposed diagonalization procedure is their commutativity

in pairs

ji kl kl jiA A A A= ( , , , 1, ),j i k l n= (3)

where the consistent operators’ application is defined as usual from the right to the left, i.e. from the

“inner” to the “external”

We should remind now that diagonalization of (2) is treated here in the same meaning as usual. The

initial system is reduced to the equivalent one that consists of n scalar partial differential operator

equations, and every equation holds an only one component 1

( ,..., )i i m

F F x x= ( 1, )i n= of the

unknown vector function Fr

. This result is also obtained by the consistent application of the

appropriate partial differential operators to the original equations of system (2).

3. The “upward” diagonalization stage

At the first diagonalization stage we raise a problem to obtain the scalar equation with respect to one

of the unknown components 1

n

i iF

=. Not breaking the common character our results, we assume that

the wanted component is1

F .

Step 1. We separate the last equation of system (2) and isolate the item with the scalar n

F in all n

equations of the considered system

1

1

1

1

.

n

ji i jn n j

i

n

ni i nn n n

i

A F A F f

A F A F f

−

=

−

=

+ =

+ =

∑

∑ ( 1, 1)j n= − , (4)

Then we apply to the last equation of (4) the operator

( )jn

A ( 1, 1)j n= − (4’)

consistently for all j from (4’), and to the remained 1n − equations of the same system the following

operator

nn

A (4’’)

is applied. Afterwards we sum consistently the last transformed n th equation and the rest 1n −

transformed equations for all 1, 1j n= − . As the result we come to the system that is equivalent to (4)

its equations from the first till the ( 1)n − th have no anymore the scalar n

F and the n th equation is

separate

1

1

1

1

( )

.

n

nn ji jn ni i nn j jn n

i

n

ni i nn n n

i

A A A A F A f A f

A F A F f

−

=

−

=

− = −

− − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − + =

∑

∑

( 1. 1)j n= − , (5)

Such separate equations that close the appropriate system at every diagonalization step further in this

paper we shall call “the single equations”.

Introducing the auxiliary notations for given operators and functions

(1)

1

nn ji jn ni ji

nn j jn n j

A A A A B

A f A f g

− =

− = ( , 1, 1),j i n= − (6)

we consider now only the first 1n − equations from (5), i.e. the subsystem of (5) that looks like

1(1)

1

1

n

ji i j

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 1, 1)j n= − (7)

and that is the system (5) without its “single equation”.

Continuing the proposed procedure, at every consequent step we get the “subsystem” of the

concluding system from the previous algorithm stage, i.e. the former final system without its “single

equation”. Each of these new studied objects has by one component i

F less than it had at the

preceding step. It should be remembered here that since at each step’s closing the “single equation” is

rejected hence, we can speak about the equivalence of the obtained systems only within the limits of

certain algorithmic stage and only until the moment of temporary rejection of the corresponding “single

equation”. Anyhow, it is obvious and will be completely evident at the end of the present part 3 that the

sought for system which is equivalent to the initial system (2), will be obtained after the final step

1k n= − by the attaching to the last concluding scalar equation all the preceding “single” non-scalar

ones that were rejected before.

Thus, generalizing the given method for all 1, 1k n= − , we can write the resulting system of the k th

step

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 1, )j n k= − ( 1, 1)k n= − , (8)

and consider the general

Step k+1 for 1, 1k n∀ = − . In all n k− equations of system (8) we isolate the item with component

n kF − , and the last equation of (8) is written separately:

1( ) ( )

,

1

1( ) ( )

, , ,

1

n kk k

ji i j n k n k jk

i

n kk k

n k i i n k n k n k n k k

i

B F B F g

B F B F g

− −

− −=

− −

− − − − −=

+ =

+ =

∑

∑( 1, 1)j n k= − − ( 1, 1).k n= − (9)

Then we apply to the ( )n k− th equation of (9) the following operator

( )

,( )

k

j n kB −− ( 1, 1)j n k= − − (9’)

consistently for all j from (9’), and to the rest 1n k− − equations of the same system the operator

( )

,

k

n k n kB − − (9’’)

is applied. Afterwards, we sum in the consecutive order the ( )n k− th transformed equation and the

rest 1n k− − transformed equations from system (9) for all 1, 1.j n k= − − As the result we come to

the following system

1( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

, , , , , ,

1

1( ) ( )

, , ,

1

( )

( 1, 1)

n kk k k k k k

n k n k ji j n k n k i i n k n k jk j n k n k k

i

n kk k

n k i i n k n k n k n k k

i

B B B B F B g B g

j n k

B F B F g

− −

− − − − − − − −=

− −

− − − − −=

− = −

− − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − = − − + =

∑

∑

(10)

that is equivalent to (9). The first 1n k− − equations of (10) contain only components i

F

( 1, 1)i n k= − − and don’t hold i

F ( , )i n k n= − . The ( )n k− th equation of system (10) is “single”.

Introducing the auxiliary notations for the appropriate certain operators and functions

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 1)

, , ,

k k k k k

n k n k ji j n k n k i jiB B B B B+

− − − −− = ( , 1, 1)j i n k= − − ,

( ) ( )

, , , , 1

k k

n k n k jk j n k n k k j kB g B g g− − − − +− = ( 1, 1)j n k= − − (11)

we can rewrite the concluding system of the current step 1k + , i.e. – (10) without its “single” equation

1( 1)

, 1

1

n kk

ji i j k

i

B F g− −

++

=

=∑ ( 1, 1)j n k= − − ( 1, 1).k n= − (12)

The known operators ...B and functions ...g from (12) are defined by the formulae (6), (11).

And at last the final

Step k = n – 1 leads to the following: we substitute 1 1k n+ = − ⇔ 2k n= − to (11), (12) and as the

result obtain the wanted scalar equation with the component 1

F

( 1)

11 1 1, 1

n

nB F g−

−= , (13)

while the rest 1n − non scalar equations are “single”. In (13) the corresponding given operator and

function are described by the below written recurrent formulae that were got after the substitution of

2k n= − into (11):

( 1) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2)

11 22 2 2

n n n n n

ji j iB B B B B− − − − −= − ( , 1),j i =

( 2) ( 2)

1, 1 22 1, 2 12 2, 2

n n

n n ng B g B g− −

− − −= − . (14)

Here it should be noted that in (11), (12), (14) as everywhere in the present part 3, the upper index in

round brackets of the known operator ...B and the second lower index of the known function ...g

mean the step number of the diagonalization procedure in the “upward” direction.

Also we have to notice that even at the current stage of the only one scalar equation construction the

commutativity in pairs (3) of the initial operators is strictly required. Otherwise the desired result can’t

be obtained. This evident fact follows directly from the realization of the proposed algorithm and does

not depend on which side, left or right, the corresponding operators are applied to the considered

system’s equation.

At last, closing the part 3 which main purpose was attained in the formulae (13), (14), we can write the

final system of the diagonalization procedure in the “upward” direction

( 1)

11 1 1, 1,

n

nB F g−

−= (15)

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 2, ;j n k= − 0, 2)k n= −suuuuuuu

( )∗

where:

(0)

ni niB A= ( 1, ),i n=

0,

n ng f= when 0,k = (15’)

are the known appropriate operators and functions from the last equation of system (4) or (5). System

(15), ( )∗ is got by attaching to the wanted scalar equation (15) all “single” equations that were rejected

earlier. Therefore, the equivalence of (15), ( )∗ to the initial system (2) ≡ (4) is obvious.

Additionally, it should be noted that the arrow direction for the index k from formula ( )∗ till the very

end of the next part 4 will describe the backward counting, - from the right to the left System (15), ( )∗

represents the completion of the “upward” diagonalization stage.

4. The “downward” diagonalization stage

Now we are going to propose the second diagonalization stage that works in the opposite –

“downward” direction.

Step 1 (k = n – 2). We isolate the first equation of subsystem ( )∗ and write it together with the

obtained scalar equation (15) that holds the component1

F . At this moment we neglect the rest

0, 3k n= −suuuuuuu

equations from ( )∗ considering them as “single”:

( 1)

11 1 1, 1

2( 2)

, 2

1

( 2).

n

n

n

ji i j n

i

B F g

B F g j

−−

−

−=

=

= =∑

(16)

In the last equation of (16) we separate the item with scalar 2

F

( 1)

11 1 1, 1

( 2) ( 2)

21 1 22 2 2, 2,

n

n

n n

n

B F g

B F B F g

−−

− −

−

=

+ = (17)

apply to the second and first equations from (17) the appropriate operators

( 1)

11,

nB

− (17’)

( 2)

21( )

nB

−− (17’’)

and sum up the both transformed equations.

After (17)’s transformation that dealt with operators (17’), (17’’), we come to the following system

( 1)

11 1 1, 1

( 1) ( 2) ( 1) ( 2)

11 22 2 11 2, 2 21 1, 1,

n

n

n n n n

n n

B F g

B B F B g B g

−−

− − − −

− −

=

= − (18)

which is equivalent to (17) and where the second scalar equation with the component 2

F appears.

Introducing the auxiliary notation for the known function from the right part of the last equation in

system (18)

( 1) ( 2)

11 2, 2 21 1, 1 1,n n

n nB g B g h− −

− −− = (19)

we rewrite (18) as follows

( 1)

11 1 1, 1

( 1) ( 2)

11 22 2 1.

n

n

n n

B F g

B B F h

−−

− −

=

= (20)

It is clear that after getting formulae (20), the subsystem ( )∗ has lessened by one equation and looks

like

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 3, ;j n k= − 0, 3).k n= −suuuuuuu

(1

∗ )

Indices of the given functions ...h from (19) and everywhere in the present part part 4 imply the step

number of the second – “downward” diagonalization stage.

Further, the generalization of the current diagonalization stage in the case the arbitrary step l

( 1, 1)l n= − is considered. At first, we write the subsystem 1

( )l−∗ of the previous step 1l −

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 1, ;j l n k= + − 0, 1).k n l= − −suuuuuuuuu

1

( )l−∗

When 1l = , the second equation of system (16) corresponds to the “zero” step.

As it was done earlier in the part 4, we isolate the first equation in 1

( )l−∗ and attach it to the

concluding system of scalar equations from the preceding step 1l − . Simultaneously, the remained

0, 2k n l= − −suuuuuuuuuu

equations in 1

( )l−∗ are “single”.

The system which last equation will be reduced to a scalar one is obtained earlier and looks like

1( )

1

1

1( 1)

, 1

1

pn q

qq p p

q

ln l

ji i j n l

i

B F h

B F g

+−

+=

+− −

− −=

=

=

∏

∑( 0, 1;p l= −

0 1, 1;

nh g −= 1).j l= + (21)

The symbol of finite operator product in (21) and later in the present part 4 implies the usual

consequent operator application from the inner to the external in “the right to the left” direction.

Further, we separate in the ( 1)l + th equation of (21) the item with the component 1l

F +

1( )

1

1

( 1)

1, 1, 1

1

pn q

qq p p

q

ln l

l i i l n l

i

B F h

B F g

+−

+=

− −

+ + − −=

=

=

∏

∑( 0, 1;p l= −

0 1, 1)

nh g −= (22)

and apply to the last equation from (22) the operator

( )

1

ln q

qq

q

B−

=

∏ . (22’)

To the remained equations in (22) from the first till the ( 1)l − th we apply the appropriate operators

( 1) ( )

1,

1

( )l

n l n q

l r qq

q r

B B− − −

+

= +

− ∏ ( 1, 1),r l= − (22’’)

and the l th equation of the same system is transformed by the operator

( 1)

1,( )n l

l lB− −

+− . (22’’’)

Then we sum up all these 1l + transformed equations and obtain the system

1( )

1

1

1 1( ) ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1)

1 1, 1 1, 1 1, 1

1;( 1)1 1 1

pn q

qq p p

q

l l lln q n q n l n q n l

qq l qq l n l l r qq r l l l

r lq q q r

B F h

B F B g B B h B h

+−

+=

+ −− − − − − − −

+ + − − + − + −= ≠= = = +

=

= − −

∏

∑∏ ∏ ∏( 0, 1)p l= − , (23)

that is equivalent to (22). In the case of 1l = the second item in the right part of the last equation from

(23) is assumed to be equal to zero, and 0 1, 1

.n

h g −=

Introducing the common notation for the known function from the right part of the last equation in (23)

1( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1)

1, 1 1, 1 1, 1

1;( 1)1 1

l lln q n l n q n l

l qq l n l l r qq r l l l

r lq q r

h B g B B h B h−

− − − − − −+ − − + − + −

= ≠= = +

= − −∑∏ ∏ , (24)

we can write the final system (23) of the arbitrary step l ( 1, 2)l n= − as follows

1( )

1

1

pn q

qq p p

q

B F h+

−

+=

=∏ ( 0, ;p l= 0 1, 1

)n

h g −= , (25)

and the second item from the right part of (24) is equal to zero when 1l = .

The obtained recurrent formulae (24), (25) are easily verified, e.c. for the above mentioned step 1l = .

It should be noted that after the construction of (25) the subsystem 1

( )l−∗ decreases by one equation

(the initial subsystem ( )∗ - correspondingly by l ) and turns into the following.

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( 2, ;j l n k= + − 0, 2).k n l= − −suuuuuuuuuu

( )l

∗

After continuation of the “downward” diagonalization stage including the final step 1l n= − , we come

to the sought for scalar equations’ system with all components i

F ( 1, )i n= (look (25) when

1l n= − ):

1( )

1

1

pn q

qq p p

q

B F h+

−

+=

=∏ ( 0, 1;p n= − 0 1, 1

)n

h g −= , (26)

where the definite operators and functions are described by formulae (11) and (24) from the parts 3

and 4 correspondingly.

When the explicit construction of the resulting system (26) is finished we can assert that the

subsystem of “single” equations ( )l

∗ does not exist anymore, since after completion of the preceding

step 2l n= − the subsystem ( )l

∗ consisted of one equation

( )

1

n kk

ji i jk

i

B F g−

=

=∑ ( , ;j n n k= − 0)k =

c

(0)

0

1

.n

ni i n

i

B F g=

=∑ 2

( )n−∗

In 2

( )n−∗ the given operator ...B and function ...g are from formulae (15’). The next final step

1l n= − brings 2

( )n−∗ to the sought for scalar equation with component

nF .

At the end of present part 4 we must mark the equivalence of the desired scalar equations’ system

(26) and the initial system (15), ( )∗ . Therefore, the both mentioned systems are equivalent to the

original system (2). This fact follows directly from the proposed diagonalization procedure and

completes it. Thus, the existence of the initial operator system solution in terms of diagonalization is

proved and the main purpose of given paper is attained.

In other words, the results of the parts 3, 4 and the final conclusion may be formulated as the following

Theorem. The explicit solution of the system (2), (3) in terms of the diagonalization procedure exists

and may be obtained algorithmically.

5. Concluding remarks

In the conclusion of given paper it should be noted that the proposed diagonalization procedure

doesn’t need any concrete initial and boundary conditions which become necessary only when the

obtained scalar equations have to be solved, i.e. when the diagonalization algorithm is finished

completely. Also we have to remind that the general approach from the parts 3, 4 doesn’t require any

additional conditions in the original system (2), excepting the operator commutativity in pairs (3).

Besides, the proposed method may be applied to the matrix operators of the arbitrary block structure.

In this case we construct the diagonalized block matrix at first, then apply the diagonalization

procedure from the block-to-block consistently and from the external operator elements to the inner

ones, until we obtain the unknown scalar equations with the components of the original vector function

Fr

.

In other words, the considered method doesn’t depend neither on the operator matrix structure nor on

the initial and boundary conditions of the studied problem (2) and represents the differential operator

analogue of the algebraic systems’ solution.

Additionally, and it is the last our remark, it should be noted that the proposed algorithm deals only

with the operators which form the matrix of the original system. Hence, these operators explicit

expressions are known in advance and the described diagonalizing procedure knows beforehand what

kind of the operator and when it is applied.

References

[1] Scientific and engineering results. Current mathematical problems. Fundamental trends. PDEs. 30.

Nauka, Moscow (1988). (Russian).





[4] I.Yu. Dmitrieva. Technical scientific report (2006), (2007), Odessa National Academy of

Telecommunications (ONAT), Department of Technical Electrodynamics and Wireless Systems.

(Russian).

[5] A.M. Ivanitckiy, I.Yu. Dmitrieva, M.V. Rozhnovskiy. The reduction of the classical Maxwell

equations’ system to the scalar equations of the Er

and Hr

vectors’ components. – Scientific works of

ONAT (2006), No. 1. P. 37 – 47. (Russian).

[6] A.M. Ivanitckiy, I.Yu. Dmitrieva, M.V. Rozhnovskiy. The reduction of the “complete” system of

Maxwell differential equations to the scalar equations of the vector function’s 6

1i iF F

==

r components.

- Scientific works of ONAT (2006), No. 2. P. 48 – 60. (Russian).

[7] A.M. Ivanitckiy, I.Yu. Dmitrieva. Diagonalization of the “symmetrical” system of the differential

Maxwell equations. – Scientific works of ONAT (2007), No. 1. P. 15 -24. (Russian).

Understanding Econophysics: a comment on Platen’s Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing under a

Bench Approach

Carmen Costea, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania (email:[email protected])

Sharpe was a Ph.D. student at University of California when he found out "Portfolio Selection" [H.

Markowitz's, 1952] that oriented him towards the “frontier of optimal investment”, developed later, at

Markowitz's suggestion, in his future PhD thesis investigating Portfolio Theory. From this research, Sharpe

[1964] independently developed an iconoclastic notion of investment risk finalizing with the Capital Asset

Pricing Model, shortly named the CAPM. According to CAPM theory, every investment carries two

different risks. The first one is the risk of being in the market – called the systematic risk or beta and it

cannot be diversified away. The second one, the unsystematic risk, is specific to a company's fortunes.

The CAPM helps measure portfolio risk and the return an investor can expect for taking that risk.

Markowitz made a step further, saying that a portfolio always expects return and risk. Expected return is

related to the expected return of the securities, but risk is more complicated. Risk is related to the risks of

the individual components as well as the correlations. That makes risk a complicated feature giving a lot of

trouble, when processing. Using a computer, we can estimate risk/return correlation and find efficient

portfolios. This way, we can “get more return for a given risk and less risk for a given return”, according to

Markowitz.

When a risk factor is missing from an asset pricing model, the resulting miss-pricing is embedded

within the residual covariance matrix. This phenomenon may lead to expected return estimates that are

more stable and precise than estimates delivered by standard methods.

But portfolio selection may be improved. At an extreme, optimal portfolio weights are proportional to

expected returns when no factors are observable. Such portfolios perform well in simulations and in out-of-

sample comparisons. During the last years various methodologies have been provided in the scientific

literature with models that asses the prices.

The CAPM has been settled as a theory of equilibrium. The CAPM comes out of two things:

Markowitz, who showed how to create an efficient frontier, and James Tobin, who said that “if you hold

risky securities and are able to borrow—buying stocks on margin - or lend—buying risk-free assets - and

you do so at the same rate, then the efficient frontier is a single portfolio of risky securities plus borrowing

and lending, and that dominates any other combination [James Tobin, 1959].

Both the CAPM and index funds come from that. The basic philosophical results carry through in the

more complex settings, although the results aren't quite as simple.

1

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory1 (APT) assumes that relatively few factors generate correlation, and

says the expected return on a security or an asset class ought to be a function of its exposure to those

factors. The APT goes farther and makes strong assumptions about the return-generating process. It has

also a limit because it doesn't tell too much about the expected return on those factors.

The CAPM and its extended versions offer some notion of how people with preferences determine

prices in the market. The CAPM tells you more. Whatever number of factors there may be, the expected

return of a security will be related to its exposure to those factors.

Under this exposure, Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing under a Bench Approach written by

Eckhard Platen is a paper about analysis and modeling. It is known that using this term often makes people

uncomfortable. People often conjure up images of the genius wearing glasses inputting oodles of data into

arcane computer programs while simultaneously sifting through reams of paper containing differential

equations and advanced statistics. This image does not meet the reality of the present scientists who know

that analysis does not have to be complicated or convoluted to be valuable. Despite the great steps made in

the last years in terms of developing intelligent models or projects and collecting data, it can not be said the

same for analysis.

The paper “Portfolio Selection and Asset pricing under a Bench Approach” develops a model for

financial market relying on the description of a benchmarked portfolio, namely the growth optimal

portfolio. In this paper, Platen provides a model with a certai1n form of arbitrage in order to obtain the key

features of the CAPM and APT without standard assumption required to ensure the existence of an

equivalent martingale measurement.

Trying to describe the complete market case, Platen’s paper (a) demonstrates that a multi- asset

market composed by d+1 primary security accounts including saving accounts – locally risk-less – includes

also d nonnegative risky primary security account processes and (b) derives the relation existing between

volatilities and risk premia.

A farther advantage of the benchmarking theory is that the derivative prices and different risk

management targets - value at risk, portfolio optimization or estimation - can be performed under the real

world measure. The benchmark can be extended to assets price dynamics, modeled semi-martingales

incorporated both predictable and inaccessible jumps.

J. A. Yan [1998] presented Kramkov and Schachermayer’s results, on optimal investment giving a

review of utility-based approach to contingent claim pricing in incomplete markets. They considered a

security market model in which the uncertainty and information structure are described by a stochastic basis

(F, P; (Ft)) satisfying the usual conditions with F0 being trivial (where P is the original or objective

probability) that models the “real world” probability.

1 Paper was presented by E. Platen at the Econophysics Colloquium, Canberra, November 2005

2

Starting with the concept of a growth optimal portfolio (GOP) previously developed by Kelly [1956]

and later by Long [(1990], Artzner [1997]), Bajeux-Besnainou and Portait [1997], Karatzas and Shreve

[1998], J. A. Yan [1998], Platen [2001, 2002] developed his own theory in good papers - written alone or

together with Heath [2005] - stimulating interest in reading and developing the same research.

The seven theorems presented in the above mentioned paper underline the super-martingale property

of benchmarked nonnegative portfolios. For a given asset its traded price is in practice a result of a process

that marches offer and demand. The difference between a benchmark traded price and any corresponding

expected future benchmarked value of this traded asset is nonnegative and represents an arbitrage amount,

if it’s not zero. The benchmarked pricing methodology doesn’t require the existence of an equivalent

martingale measure. The benchmark methodology facilitate the modeling of some form of arbitrage

possibly existing in the emerging and maturing markets, subjects to shocks and unexpected turbulences.

To respect the laws of conservation of value, Platen [2001] assumes that all portfolios are self-

financing. Changes in the value of the portfolio are exactly matched by the corresponding gains from trade.

These days, a rich and various literature bring important data regarding no-arbitrage: Harrison and

Kreps [1979], Folner and Sondermann [1986], Delbaen and Schachermayer [1994], Karatsas and Shreve

[1998].

Considering benchmarked portfolios and not domestic account discounted portfolios, Platen correctly

underlines that a nonnegative benchmarked portfolio process (Vδ) corresponds to a self-financing strategy

(δ) which is (S) integrable and arbitrage free in the standard sense and if (Vδ) is super-martingale. Being a

model for the financial markets, based on the different denominations of the growth optimal portfolio -

where the risk premia for premium assets does not depend on the denomination – the arbitrage amount can

be expressed as they occur after shocks or market turbulence because all benchmarked portfolio processes

are arbitrage free. Therefore the APT can also be applied.

Kelly discovered the GOP in 1956; it has been the unifying object in the benchmark approach. Later,

from 1959 until these days, GOP has been studied and applied it in portfolio optimization and derivative

pricing, fascinating lots of scientists like Latane [1959], Breiman [1960], Markowitz [1976] and Long

[1990], Hakansson and Ziemba [1995], Platen [2001, 2005]. In his papers, Platen presents, without any

particular model assumption, that the MP approximates the GOP if the MP is a diversified portfolio and the

continuous market has certain regularity. Thus, diversification and various forms of portfolio optimization

lead to complementing results. Once the observable MP established as GOP satisfying the SDE one can

now ask, a usual question is rising and concerns the natural dynamics of the GOP.

Historically, the volatility has been chosen as parameter process to model asset prices. The

discounted GOP drift has been suggested as an alternative more economically based parameter process.

This quantity reflects the underlying economic value that flows into the market per unit of time. By

3

modeling an exponential function of time with constant net growth rate, the minimal market model (MMM)

is obtained, as described in Platen’s papers [2001, 2002]. Under the MMM the GOP volatility arises. The

MMM predicts for log-returns distribution with four degrees of freedom (statistically confirmed by

Fergusson and Platen in 2005 when studying the log-returns of a world stock index in different currencies.

The model allows explaining empirical facts stylized by its probabilistic properties and explains

representative shape of the concerned volatilities of index and rate options obtained under MMM. These

typical dynamics will be soon able to explain further events and phenomena, helping business analysts and

decision makers to draw effective conclusions from limited data and put together information that does not

yet fit at first glance. Then readers will benefit themselves and hope will become comfortable with this

template.

References

♦ Artzner, P., (1997). On the numeraire portfolio. Mathematics of Derivative Securities. Cambridge Univ.Press, 53-58.

♦ Bajeux-Besnainou, I., Portait, R. (1997). The numeraire portfolio: a new perspective on financial theory. The European Journal of Finance 3, 291-307.

♦ Breiman, L. (1960). Investment policies for expending business optimal in a long run sense. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 7(4), 647-651.

♦ Burton, J. (1998). Revising the Capital Asset Pricing Model, Dow Jones Asset Manager, May/June 1998, 20-28.♦ Dalbaen, F., Schachermayer, W. (1994). A general vision of the fundamental theory of asset pricing. Math. Ann.

300, 463-520.♦ Folner, H., Sonermann, D. (1986). Hedging of non-redundant contingent claims. Contributions to Mathematical

Economics, North Holland, 205-223.♦ Hakansson, N. H., Ziemba, W. T., (1995). Capital growth theory. R. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, W. Ziemba (Edit.),

Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science: Finance, Vol 9, 65-86. Elsevier Science.♦ Harrison, J., Krepes, D.M. (1979). Martingale and arbitrage in multiperod securities markets. J. Economic

Theory 20, 381-4-8.♦ Karatsas, I., Shreve, E., (1998). Methods of Mathematical Finance, Applied Math, Springer, vol.39.♦ Kelly, J.R., (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell Syst.Techn. J.35, 917-926.♦ Long, J.B., (1990). The numeraire portfolio. J.Financial Econom.Statist. 47, 13-37.♦ Platen, E., (2001). A minimal financial market model. Trends in Mathematics, Birkhauser, 293-301.♦ Platen, E. (2002). Arbitrage in continuous complete markets. Adv. in Appl. Probab. 34(3), 540-558.♦ Platen, E. (2005). Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing under a Bench Approach, Econophysics Quolloquium,

Canberra, November 2005.♦ Latane, H. (1959). Criteria for choice among risky ventures. J. Political Econ.38, 145-155.♦ Markowitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investment. Wiley, New York. ♦ Markowitz, H. (1976). Investment for the long run: new evidence for an old rule. J. Finance XXXI (5), 1273-128♦ Sharpe, W.F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. J. Finance 19,

425-442.♦ Tobin, J. (1958). Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk. Rev. of Economic Studies 25(2), 65-86.♦ Yan, J.A., (1998). A new look at the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. ♦ J. Korean Math. Soc.35 (3), 659-673.

4

Econophysical Approaches for the Direct Foreign Investments

Anda Gheorghiu, Ion Spânulescu and Anca GheorghiuHyperion University Bucharest

Calea Calarasilor 169, sector 3 - Bucharest

Abstract. In this paper will be applied some principles and methods from econophysics in the case of the direct foreign investments (I.S.D.), particularised for the Greenfield type, and mixed firms of trade and industrial production (Joint Ventures). To this aim will be used some similarities and parallelisms between the mentioned economic domains and some phenomena and precesses from physics, specially from thermodynamics solid state physics (the grow of crystals and thin policrystalline layers etc.), electromagnetism etc.

1. Introduction

Econophysics – science recently appeared – developed specially owed to the interpretations and models created for applications in the financial and investment domains, generally in the domains of industrial economy or goods consumption. Less has been the attempts to find the applicable models of the econophysics in the domains of the trade and marketing and specially in the trade and direct foreign investments domains.

By his nature of exact science which studies the laws of the nature, the physics proved to be the source and support of other sciences and specially of the technical ones (electrotechnics, metallurgy, electronics, civil constructions, machine engineering, thermotechnics etc.) but also for many boundary sciences as biophysics, geophysics, physico-mathematics, biomedical physics and more recenty econophysics and sociophysics.

Solid state physics, deals with the study and applications of the solid materials, specials metals, semiconductors and dielectrics with numerous and extremly important applications in electronics and microelectronics, in optics, in energetics (solar cells) etc., as well as with the plastic materials, polymers etc.

For the most diverse applications, solid materials (metals, semiconductors, oxides etc.), are used like thin (films) made by various procedures from which the most used is that of evaporation and condensation in vacuum on an adequate solid support (substrate), specially in microtechnologies and nanotechnologies.

Between the process of getting thin layers by evaporation and condensation from the gaseous phase and the process of the direct investments in the variants „greenfield”, fusions, acquisitions or mixed firm associations (Joint ventures), there are more similarities or analogies which shall be exposed and analised in this paper. The examination of these similarities between the two process types can lead to the

settlement and/or understanding of some criterions or realisation conditions of some direct investments in other countries like „greenfield” investments on bare spots, or of fusions and acquisitions.

To be able to distinguish and understanding the similarities between the monocrystalline or policrystalline thin films process and the mode to realise the direct foreign investments (I.S.D.), further on shall be succintly presented the conditions to obtain, and the main physical and structural characteristics of the thin films condensed in vacuum on plane supports warmed at various temperatures.

2. General considerations about the obtaining of the solid state thin films.

To obtain the thin films by evaporation and condensation in vacuum some special devices are used: the evaporation precinct, in form of a glass case (Fig. 1) in which there are the evaporation source in form of a crucible containing the evaporation substance as well as the plane support 3 situated in the path of the atomo-molecular beam of the evaporated substance from the crucible. The support is warmed at various temperatures by dint of a separate oven. (Fig. 1)

An important parameter to obtain a compact thin layer is the number of the incident particles on the support i.e. the atomo-molecular flux density produced by the evaporation source that must exced a critical value IC to have a condensation on the support. There is too a temperature TC of the support above which the condensation can’t occur because Tsupport is too high [1]

The formation and growth of thin films process can be best explained by the adsorption theory of Frenkel and Langmuir and further developed by others researchers.

According to this theory the incident atoms on the support surface remain on it a time ts given by

RTEs

dt /e −⋅τ= (1)

where Ed is the adsorbtion (desorbtion) energy, and τ the molecular period of the adsorbed molecule (atom) vibrations (≈ 10 -14 s) on the support. During the time ts

the adsorbed atoms mograte on the support similarity to bidimensional gas, after which they can reevaporate or to settle on the support.

2

Figure 1.

The adsorbtion degree depends too on the accomodation coefficient α, defined by the probability of the incident atom (molecule) on the support’s surface, to be adsorbed. The adsorbtion coefficients depends on the nature, temperature and surface support condition as well as on the nature and atoms (molecules) incident energy Ei. If Es and Ts are the energy and the support temperature respectively, and Est and Tst the energy and the layer temperature respectively, the accomodation coefficient may be expressed by [1.2].

.is

ist

is

ist

EEEE

TTTT

−−=

−−=α (2)

In the case Ts = Tst or Es = Est , then α ≈ 1 that corresponds, for instance to the metal on metal condensation.

Numerous investigations showed that the nature and the state of the support deposition surface of the thin film presents a main importance for the structure and the physical layer properties. As function of the nature and support condition may be obtained monocrystalline layers (with some number of defects) policrystalline or even amorphous ones. It is supposed of course that the support temperature is high enough to obtain the crystalline phase, the amorphous one should appear in the case of low support temperature and the support surface contains oxides, traces of fatty acids etc or an appreciable number of defects.

In the case of the supports with insufficiently cleaning or insufficient vacuum degassing by other procedures, the obtained layers contain crystalls with a high number of structural defects.

It is generally admited that the crystalline structure supports (ionic crystalls, semiconductors, metals, mica etc.) facilitate the apparition of cvasimonocrystalline layers called epitaxial layers.

In case of autoepitaxy the support must be of the same nature and eventually with the same orientation and net type like the epitaxial layer (for instance, Si on Si,

3

Ge on Ge, Cu on Cu etc.). It is supposed that all other conditions of epitaxial growth are realised (high support temperature, the absence of defects or impurities on the support surface, atom supersaturation of the deposed etc.).

The amorphous supports like those of plane glass, generally lead to crystalline or even amorphous layers.

3. Determination of the mass and the thickness of the condensed layers on the support.

From the molecular physics it is known that inside a vacuum precinct containing a number N of molecules with a total mass M, the number ν of molecules coming from all directions and hitting the surface unity in time unity is given by:

vn41=ν (3)

in which:2/12

2

=

mTk B

πv (4)

is the arithmetic mean velocity of the molecules at temperature T.By replacing the Boltzmann constant value K and of the other numeric

entities, the relation (4) becomes:

2/124 )(10.66,4 −=ν MTp (5)

in which p represents the gas pression inside the precinct, and M = mN is the molecular mass.

The adsorbtion velocity of the molecules deposed on the plane surface support placed on the way of the evaporation source from the inside of the precinct is given by:

α ν==dt

dnw a

ad (6)

where α is the accomodation coefficient, defined as the probability of the atom (molecule) incident on a surface to be adsorbed, namely fixed on the support by the Van der Vaals adhesion forces or by other forces of atomo-molecular nature.

Taking into consideration (5), the relation (6) becomes:

].s,cm[,110.513,3)2( 12222/1 −−− α=α=MT

pTmkpdt

dnB

a (7)

For the deposition of a layer of a substance of mass m it is necessary to establish a (dynamic) equilibrium between the solid phase (or liquid) ,from the support surface and the gaseous one (of the incident atomo-molecular flux). That is to say that the evaporation velocity wev should be proportional to the mass m of the evaporated substance as well as to the adsorption velocity (deposed on the support), wad, of the particules from the incident atomo-molecular beam given by relation (7):

4

sg/cm,)2( 22/10 ⋅πα= −Tmkpm

dtdnm B

avw (8)

where αv is the evaporation coefficient (similar to the accomodation one α), and pv

the saturated vapours pression of the evaporated substance. Because M = mN, from (8) is obtained:

.sg/cm,0583,0 2(torr) ⋅α=

TMpvvw (9)

For the surfaces considered clean αv=1.From (8) and (9) formulas it is observed that the evaporation velocity depends

on the substance nature (through the intermediary of the mass M), as well as on the thermodynamic evaporation temperature T.

Supposing a punctual evaporator with spherical simmetry, a sufficiently reduced pression (to have an atomo-molecular beam) and a beam of not to high density (to neglect the shock number between the evaporated substance molecules), in order to calculate the condensated distribution on the receptacle support, the laws of Lambert from the geometric optics can be applied. From the optics it is known that the mean luminous intensity of a spherical punctual source, for the solid angle unity is:

,40 π

= FI (10)

where F is the total flux emitted by the source in all directions. Analogously in the case of a punctual source from which a substance is evaporating in all directions with a constant velocity w[g/s], the substance quantity passing through a solid angle dΩ in any direction, in time unity is given by the relation:

.d4

d Ωπ

= wm (11)

It is admited that, after evaporation, the material is condensed on an elementary surface dS2 whose normal forms the angle θ with the mean beam direction (fig.2).

Because the solid angle is given by:

,cosd2 θ=Ω

rSd (12)

it results that:

.dcos4

d 22 Sr

m θπ

= w(13)

In the case of a plane source emitting in the directions above the respective plane only, (fig.2) the relation (10) it is written:

5

,/0 πFI (10')

and consequently the formula (18) becomes:

.dcosd 22 Sr

m θπ

= w (14)

If ρ [g/cm3] is the condensed substance density, then the thickness of the layer in time unity can be found from the relation:

.ddd 2SdVm ⋅ρ=ρ= (15)

From (14) and (15) results for the thickness d:

.cos2r

d θπ ρ

= w(16)

If the evaporation is from a punctiform source and the condensation is on a plane receiver surface S(fig.2), then the layer thickness condensed in the point P will be:

.)(

cos2/32232 xh

hrh

rd

+π ρ=

π=θ

π ρ= www

(17)

Figure 2.

The layer thickness in the point 0 (x=0) is given by (see rel (17)):

.11230 hh

hd ⋅π ρ

=⋅π ρ

= ww(18)

In the thin films technology, in order to increase the productivity, inside the evaporation precinct can be situated more supports (fig.3a), so from the source of

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mass M, j layers can condensate of masses m1, m2, m3 … mj, as it is seen from the figure 3,b.

Obviously, the thicher layers will be obtained on the supports placed just above the source M, at the minimum distance h (fig.3) according to the relation (18), whereas the thickness of the other layers should be determined in compliance with (17) relation in which xj represents the distance from the point 0 (placed above the source) up to the considered support.

a) b)

Figure 3.

It is to be mentioned that for the realisation of some compound substances layers or for the controlled impurification as in the case of semiconductor thin films that must be impurified, can be used more evaporation sources with M1, M2….Mn

mass concomitant with more supports on which can be condensed layers of m1, m2… mp mass as can be seen in figure 4.

Figure 4.Between the layer mass mj and the source mass Mi there is a proportionality

relation:

ij AMm = (19)

which in the general case with more sources and more condensation supports cand be written under the form:

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+++=

+++=

+++=

+++=

nnpnnp

np

np

np

MkMkMkm

MkMkMkmMkMkMkm

MkMkMkm

2211

32321313

22221212

12121111

(20)

or under the form of a functional relation of the type:

=

==

),,(

),,(),,(

321

32122

32111

nnp

n

n

MMMMfm

MMMMfmMMMMfm

(21)

Coming again, for simplicity, to the case when we have a single source M and a single plane, finite and regular (circular or rectangular) support placed above at a distance h (fig. 3), the mass mj of the deposed layer is direct proportional to the thickness od of this one, i.e. (see rel. (18)) :

21h

kkdm oj π ρ== w

(22)

in which it was taken in consideration the evaporation above the plane only, where is situated the evaporation source (fig. 3). From the relation (22) it is seen that the deposed mass layer depends directly proportional to the evaporation velocity w and inversely proportional to the distance support – source h.

4. The crystalline thin films growth model for the direct foreign investments analyse.

As it was mentioned in § 2, between the thin films obtaining process and the mechanisms of realisation of the direct foreign investments there are more similarities or analogies. Their examination may lead to the establishment or understanding of some specific criterions or realisation conditions of some direct investment types in other countries, markets or regions.

So, the mother-firm, with the economic-financial power (capacity) source M, can be assimililated with the source of mass Mj from which is evaporating the substance that constitues the capital fluxes guided towards various locations j that can be assimilated with the support or with supports of masses mj, j = 1,2…p placed in various locations (countries) j, at „economic” distances hj toward the source. By economic distance is understood the physical route (way) type as well as the infrastructure and the costs tied to the necessary utilities to realise the capital or equipments, raw materials etc, that can be assimilated with the “trajectory” of the atomo-molecular beam from the vacuum precinct in the case of thin films deposition.

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In the case of the direct foreign investments (I.S.D.) the potential investment benefice Vij or the efficiency of the direct investment from the mass central source (the amount of Mi funds of the mother firm), towards her branches or in other investment locations in various countries or regions characterised by “masses” or funds mj, j = 1,2,3….p can be calculated with the general relation:

.ijijij CRV −= (23)

In (23) relation, Rij term represents the actual total value of the incomes expected to the obtained, and Cij is the actual value of the necessary costs to realise the investment mj in the location (or locations) j (see Fig 3 and 4).

The mass mj of the investment realised in the location j characterises the value represented by density ρ, (i.e. the receptor region characteristic, from the point of view of the attractivity degree, permisivity for investments), as well as the volume vj

of the investment (the value of each branch) so that:.jjm vρ= (24)

On the other hand, as it was shown (see rel. (22)) “the mass” mj i.e. the value of the investment realised in location j from other country or region, is directly proportional with the layer thickness do i.e. with the dimensions or the volume of the realised investment:

21h

kkdm oj π ρ== w

(25)

where h represents the “economic distance” between the mother-firm (source) and the investment (branch) realised on a “plane” support at the location j, and w is the transfer velocity (similar to “evaporation velocity”) of the investment funds, equipments and necessary management.

But, as it was mentioned in the previous paragraph, the volume and the value of the realised investment (mj mass) are conditioned also by the value, the economic-financial power respectively and other characteristics of the mother – firm (source), fact that can be written under the form of the direct dependency (see rel. (19)):

ij AMm = (26)

In the relations (26) A represents a specific parameter (proportionality constant) to each direct foreign investment type. A represents a managerial decision component at the mother-firm- level establishing the procent from the total investment fund for a certain target. From (25) and (26) results the necessary value of the transfer velocity of the capital fluxes to location j:

22 hMAhAMk ioi =π ρ=w (27)

From the formulae (27) result that the capital flux transfer velocity, equipments etc. from the sourse i to the location j depends directly on the economical (capacity) power Mi of the mother-firm and on the square of the

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economic distance from the source to the investment location. The remoter the respective location, the higher must be the value and transfer velocity of capital flux to compensate the supplementary expense with the transports that are conditioning also the realised products distribuition at the location j and the delivery of products respectively etc. It may be mentioned for instance the case of Nokia firm investment at the “support” industrial park Jucu near Cluj – Napoca from Romania. The selection of the respective locality being in large measure decided because the route distance h is smaller to the great towns from the nordic and central regions of Europe where must be distribuited the products and where from can come the equipments and installations (from Nokia “source”) towards the location j, Jucu.

It is proved so that in the case of greenfield investment Nokia from the support Jucu near Cluj-Napoca, has taken in consideration the main conditions and exigences imposed by the realisation of some “layers” which constitutes the investment of mass mj and namely by the necessary “vacuum” in the work “precinct” characterised by the specific nature of the “support” (region) j having an accomodation coeficient or condensation α (see rel. (9)), symbolised by the cheap manpower attraction and disponible in the region, good conditions to bild the infrastructure (cheap and enough ground plot, construction materials etc.), the distance h relatively small between the source and “support” (j location) and the economic-financial power (capacity) Mi of the mother-firm source as it results from the analyes of (27) formula too.

Similar considerations may be done also for other direct foreign investments categories for which can be detalied the differences of investment type, by the conditions and relations existing between the “source” and “condensation support”. This can be done by the introduction of some suplementary, or correction factors, in (22) ÷ (27) formulas and the adaptation of the rationations tied to the mother-firm characteristics and support respectively.

So, a joint venture supposes the previous existance in the target country one of the same nature firm (support), eventually of a reduced economic “power” on which a new patrimonial entity is in common realised, a profitable one.

In this case the joint venture investment type can be modell under the form of epitaxial growth1 of some monocrystalline thin films on a massive monocrystalline support as it is , for instance, the growth of a Si layer on a Si support or Ge on Ge, Cu on Cu etc. (fig. 5)

Such mono or policrystalline thin films, named epitaxial, one can be obtained by substance transport from the source S up to the support of the some nature like the deposed layer.

The transport of the gaseous substance cand be done by dint of on inert gas or easier by deposition in vacuum precincts on supports (locations j) for which are valid the considerations and the precedent relations, especially (22) ÷ (27) relations.

1 The epitaxy term is coming from the greek words „ ε π ι ” meaning „on” and „ τ α ξ ι ς ” meaning deposing on same nature, and was proposed for the denomination of the oriented crystal growts – one over the other, process.

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Figure 5.

In figure 5, by 1 was marked the connexion plane (joint venture) between the two regions (firms) that even have the same nature and crystalline structure etc, can have also some distinguishable characteristics, in the firm case, that from locality j (the film deposed on j support) may contain a more diversity of products of the firm i, as in the case of the semiconductor thin films that can have an other electronic conduction type, or other characteristics or optical or mechanical properties etc. slightly different from those of the mother-firm or of the main firm (source i) [1].

5. Conclusions

In this paper it have been applied some principles and econophysics methods to model some direct foreign investment categories specially for greenfield and joint venture investment types. For that, have been used some similarities and analogies between the mentioned investment types and some processes or phenomena from physics, specially from thermodynamics and the solid state physics, with special reference to the crystal or policrystalline substances growth, by their deposition under vacuum as thin films (layers).

In the paper it is shown that the thickness (as well as the volume) and the thin film deposed mass by vacuum thermal evaporation is determined by the evaporation velocity, i.e. by the evaporator temperature (source), by the mass Mi and by the nature (density ρ) of the evaporating substance, as well as by the distance h between the source and the support on which the solid layer mj is deposed.

By dint of the proposed econophysic model it is established that between the obtaining of the thin films process and the realisation and analysis mechanisms of the direct foreign investments, may be identified more similarities or parallelisms (analogies), the examination of these being able to lead to the establisment or foundation of some specific criterions or realisation condition of some direct foreign investments types.

So, the mother-firm of economico-financial capacity Mi can be assimilated with the “source” of Mi mass from which is evaporating the substance that is consistent of the capital fluxes (similar to the molecular-beam from the solide substances evaporated in vacuum), directed towards the various locations j that can be assimilated with the support or supports of mj, j = 1,2 …. p situated at various locations (countries) at “economic” distances hj with respect to the source.

In the paper is shown that because the mass mj of the deposed layer, assimilated with the power or economico-financial capacity of the realised investment into the country j is proportional with the Mj mass of source firm, the transfer velocity (similar to the evaporation velocity w) of the capital flux from the source Mi to the location j depends directly on the economico-financial power Mj of

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the mother-firm and from the square of the “economic” distance h from the source to the investment location.

In other words, the more far is the respective location, the larger must be the volume or the size of capital fluxes devilered by the mother-firm (investmental source) specially for the greenfiled investment types.

For the joint ventures investment type the thin epitaxial films model can be used, i.e. of a layer realisation (the investment from the location j) on a support of the same nature with that of the deposed material delivered (supplied) by the mother-firm that constitutes the ‘evaporation” source.

The theoretical considerations regarding the value (size) of the capital fluxes from the source to the locations j are the same to those above mentioned for the greenfield investments type.

REFERENCES:

1. I. SPÂNULESCU, Fizica straturilor subţiri şi aplicaţii, Editura Ştiinţifică, Bucureşti, 1975.

2. K. D. CHOPRA, Thin Film Phenomena, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969.3. I. I. FRENKEL, „Z. Physik”, 16, 117 (1924).4. L. S. PALATNIK, I. I. PAPIROV, Epitaxialnîe plenki, Nauka, Moskva, 1971.

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PHYSICS MODELS THROUGH ECONOMY

Authors:

Prof. Livia Pavelescu –National College “Octav Onicescu” of Bucharest

Prof. Elena Ciobanu –Economic High School “Mircea Vulcanescu” of Bucharest

ABSTRACT

Thermodynamic is a part of physics which studies warmth, mechanic work, the

entropy and the energy in physics systems and it is derived from static physics which tries to

determine the properties of mechanic systems starting from static laws which administers the

microscopic components.

Thermodynamic succeed to enjoin to a corpse of fundamental laws in physics, laws

from which all the other domains of physics can’t do abstraction. In this way, thermodynamic

constitutes it-self as a global cadre, but in the same time it constitutes as a limitation for the

evolution of physics systems at a macroscopic scale.

On the other hand, economic sciences operate with global static sizes, like average

income, economic growth, dynamic of hired population, and so on, and it occupies with the

analysis of dynamic of big systems, with the complexes of economic agents, it was expected

that a thermodynamic formalization of economy would be possible.

Thermodynamic is important also in theory and in practice too, because we can

calculate the sheet of a complicated technical process through the means of some simple

functions like warmth and mechanic work.

In economy, similar with the thermodynamic of steam machines, it is possible to

invest a small stock and obtain a large profit on an economic cycle.

Economic growth is a function which contain at least two variables, the stock – an

ensemble of physics and financial possessions which are capable to produce earning – and

work – a measure of people’s effort, and it can be formalized similar to thermodynamic,

making possible the calculation of complicated processes of some differential forms through

some simple function.

The economic activities of input and production are amenable of the second

thermodynamic law, according to the processes they are irreversible and they are

characterized through a constant lose of energy, in the scarceness of an external source.

International SymposiumMay the 17th, 2008, Bucharest

1

PHYSICS MODELS THROUGH ECONOMY

Authors: Prof. Livia Pavelescu – “Octav Onicescu” National College

Prof. Elena Ciobanu – “Mircea Vulcănescu” Economic School Group

Nowadays, there is noticed the effect of the globalization in the information and

economic domain, even in the “fundamental” sciences domain.

The research, control and efficiency of the financial, economic and social dynamics

of a society involve the knowledge and the understanding of the interdependencies between

the economic and social domains and the other sciences: Physics, Mathematics, Biology,

Psychological Physiology, Sociology, Law etc.

The relation between Physics and Economics is a privileged one and led to the

appearance of a new domain – Econophysics.

The Econophysics deals with the analysis of the economic and financial phenomena

from the theoretical and experimental perspective of the physicists.

At the beginning, the physicists started to analyze the temporal dynamics of prices

due to the fact that they had a lot of data, but also due to the fact that the society granted a

special importance to the financial matter.

Step by step, Econophysics started to be more and more used. This is how it was

noticed that the theoretical and experimental analysis means, which have been used by the

Physicists in the discovering of the universe’ basic laws, may be successfully applied in the

understanding of the mechanisms of the economic and social dynamics.

The experts in Economics wanted to exercise the “monopoly” on the research of this

domain, using as an argument the fact that an empiric analysis based on economic and

financial data is not equivalent to a usual experimental investigation in Physics.


2

They affirmed the impossibility of the accomplishment of some concrete, “invasive”

experiments, on a macro-economic and financial scale and that might annul the respective

theories.

But the physicists proved that such limitations are not specific to the economic and

financial systems, they are also found in domains of Physics such as: Astrophysics,

Atmospheric Physics or Geophysics.

The most important methods used in Econophysics are the stochastic modeling and

the non-linear dynamics. There is an intrinsic connection between Econophysics and

complexity theory that, in general terms, may be defined as the study of the high dimensional

non-linear systems.

The most used practical method in the study of these systems is the so called

modeling based on agents, Tesfatsion and Judd (2006), with the different characteristic

aspects: genetic algorithms, artificial life, complex adaptive systems, evolutionary

computation etc.

The aspects dealt by Econophysics, out of the perspective of the economic sciences

and stochastic analysis, are hereinafter briefly mentioned:

• the analysis of prices distribution on the financial markets (Mantenga – 1991,

Levy and Solomon – 1997, Farmer and Joshi - 2002 etc.);

• the analysis of the incomes distribution (Drăgulescu and Yakovenco – 2001,

Yarlagadda and Charkrabarti - 2005 etc);

• the analysis of the shocks and of the economic raise rates (Bak, Chen,

Scheinkman and Woodford – 1993 etc);

• companies’ analysis (Takayasu and Okuyama – 1998)

• the analysis of the scientific discoveries (Plerou, Amaral, Goparkishnan,

Meyer and Stanley – 1999 etc.)

1973 is the year of important changes in the domain of finances, when the foreign

currency started to be marketed on the financial markets, with a value settled by the exchange

market, markets that are continuously active from the temporal point of view.

In the same year the economists Black & Scholes published the first work where it is

presented a rational price formula of the options and that it had as a model the physical

dynamics of the Brownian motion. In spite of the limitations and approximations of this

formula – model, variants of this one are used even nowadays.


3

Even if the suppositions of this model are not completely verified on the real market,

that is that the dynamic series of the stocks prices is a Brownian motion and that the

transaction is a continuous one, the model Black & Scholes (1973) it definitely settles the

idea that the models characteristic to Physics coherently describe the prices dynamics in a

financial market.

In Romania, the most representative promoter of Econophysics is considered

Georgescu – Roegen (1971), well known mathematician, the founder of the bioeconomics

theory.

The bioeconomics theory of Georgescu – Roegen integrates the economic progress

and the biologic evolutionism in a harmonious, coherent, mathematical and physical

thinking, with implications in the economic policy.

According to this theory there is considered that, as the biological processes are

governed by the thermodynamic laws of entropy, the same happens with the economics, it is

even imposed a new evolutionist economics.

Unlike those mechanicist conceptions that stated reversibility, auto-maintenance of

the economic process, Georgescu – Roegen states that the production and consumption

economic activities are subject to the second law of thermodynamics, according to which the

processes are irreversible and are characterized by a constant loss of energy, in the absence of

an “external” source that might compensate this loss.

Of course, there should be taken into consideration the limitations of this

thermodynamic integralist reporting way, especially from the point of view of the model’

inherent simplifications.

Its incontestable merit is being among the first who affirms that the laws of the nature

sciences are found in the economic and social laws, and viceversa.

Holding the control over the economic and social processes is, undoubtedly, one of

the most difficult responsibilities that the economists and politicians might have.

It is unanimously accepted that the economics belongs to the complex systems class

and, as a consequence, by analogy with Physics, the fundamental dynamic characteristics

should be described both by determinist and stochastic models.

We shall present a thermodynamic approach of the economic dynamics of production

drawn up by Mimkes (2006). In this thermodynamic formalization of economics, the

fundamental laws of the market are derived out of statistical computation and laws, without


4

taking into consideration other factors. Out of the perspective of the thermodynamics as a

branch of Physics, this was expected.

But the economic interactions are not governed only by statistical laws but also by

restrictions, legislative conditioning, agreements that shall influence the way how the

economic agents interact.

In thermodynamics, heat is (Q) and it is a function of at least two variables:

temperature and pressure.

Generally, the change in heat, δQ, is not an exact total differential, that is starting

from an A thermodynamic state of the system towards a B state, the changed heat depends on

the chosen way.

So, it is possible that on a closed way ABA we should have a positive balance of the

change of heat between the system and the external environment, so it is possible to “invest”

a little heat on a way and to obtain more on the coming back way, maybe periodically as in

case of thermal equipments.

∫ δQ≠0

In Economics, similarly to the thermal equipments, it is possible to invest a little

capital and to obtain a big profit on an economic cycle.

The situation is similar to that of a bank that invests a percentage from the capital and

regains from the credited people a bigger value, or as in a company where the workers are

paid as less as possible and from the clients it is gained as much as possible.

The economic raise is also a function of at least two variables:

• the capital – the totality of the physical and financial assets that might bring

profit and

• work – representing the people’ effort

Due to this, the economic raise may also be formalized similarly to the

thermodynamics so that there might be possible the calculation of some complicated

processes of some differential forms by simple functions.

The economic production is accomplished by work, by effort, but the results depend

on the concrete production process (factory, bank, agriculture), that is in mathematical

language we say that they depend on the modality of integration.

If we note:

• the surplus by ΔQ, that is S – in the standard Economics it is the result


5

• the strived effort (-W).

Then the production may be modeled by the calculation of some inexact differential

forms, Mimkes (2006):

- ∫ ΔW = ∫ δQ

∫ δQ = ∫ AδQAB, ∫ BδQBA = ∫ AδQAB - ∫ AδQBA = Y – C = ΔQ

These relations show us that the way out of the system, the profit (Y), is balanced by

the entry of the system, expenses (C ) by the surplus (ΔQ).

The profit and the expenses are of the same cycle of production and depend on the

specific modality (way) of spending and obtaining the profit, the surplus being calculated

only if it is known the entire process.

The two inexact differential, (δQ) and (δW) are equal along the same way of

integration, they being differentiated only by an exact total differential, (dE):

δQ = dE – δW,

that represent the first law of Economics in differential form

The surplus (δQ) shall raise the capital (dE) and shall necessitate a labor contribution

(-δW).

We notice that the main characteristic of this law is the one that the equilibrium of the

production, respectively of the capital, may not be expressed by defined functions but only in

inexact differential forms.

In the interpretation of Mimkes (2006), labor (W) represents both the strived physical

and intellectual effort, but also the know-how invested in the process, that is the production

process in general. Labor exists as a general function and it always depends on the

integration road, that is the concrete production way, so it can not be calculated in advance.

The measurement unit for labor (W), for the economic production is the same for the

surplus (Q), and also for the capital (E) and it is defined as being the capital.

The capital (E) is the base of the production and without work (W) it can not raise, on

the contrary it may decrease if the business is not well managed.

The surplus is the result of work and due to the fact that it is not an exact total

differential it can not be calculated in advance, depending on the production process.

By analogy with the thermal equipments, in a heat pump the heat surplus is obtained

based on its extraction from the heat tank.


6

On a production cycle there can be expressed the efficiency of the production (the

interest degree) by the proportion between the obtained surplus (Q) and the invested capital

(E):

r = ΔQ / E

The differential form δQ may be made exact by the integration factor 1/T:

dS = 1 / T δQ

This system function (S) in thermodynamics is named entropy, and in Economics –

utility function and this is the second law of Economics.

Unlike (Q) and (W), (S) is the state function and it does not depend on the process but

only on the in and out positions of the production and may be calculated before the process.

The term of entropy was introduced in Economics by Georgescu – Roegen (1974)

and recently by K. Foley and Mimkes. Thus, in the economic stochastic systems, entropy

plays the role of the production function.

In this sense:

• in case of distribution of elements as products or money, ΔS = S2 – S1 >0, it

creates disorder;

• in case of the collection of elements, ΔS = S2 – S1 <0, it creates disorder, Mimkes

(2006).

The integration factor is a measurement of the capital (E) of those N economic agents

of a specific economic system:

E=c N T

c – proportionality factor;

T – it may be seen as: economic temperature.

In a market with N offers it may be considered as the average price.

In a system with N agents it may be the average capital for an agent, the life standard

being proportional with the gross internal product per inhabitant.

We can similarly introduce the integration factor for the production:

dV = - 1/ p δW

where: the parameter p – may be named economic or social pressure;

V – the space of the social liberties


7

The Mechanism of Production and Trade – Interpreted with the Carnot Cycle

It is hereby presented an economic cycle defined by the transactions

(1→2→3→4→1) in a diagram T / S, Mimkes (2006).

The Carnot cycle is defined by two “adiabates” – processes at S = const. and two

“isotherms” – processes at T = const.

Integrating along the closed way (1→2→3→4→1), we obtain:

- ∮δW = ∮δQ = ∮TdS = ∫TdS + ∫TdS = Y – C = ΔQ

It also results:

δQ = dE – δW

By this equation we can calculate:

• costs: C = E + T1 (S2 – S1);

• profit: Y = E+T2 (S4-S3);

• surplus: ΔQ = Y – C = ΔT ΔS – it corresponds to the closed area from the

Carnot cycle.


8

T –integrator factor –

S -entropy -

YY

CC

ΔQ - profit

33 44

22 1

In case of the production of a good, for example an automobile, the workers – with

little incomes T1 - create the product according to the production plan ΔS, on the diagram the

“isotherm” process 1→2.

The total production costs are given by the necessary materials E and by the work:

C = E + T1 ΔS

The costs may be reduced by the production of the same product, with the same

materials and according to the same production plan, but in a place where the manpower

income is lower.

The transport of the mercancy from the production place T1 to a place with a better

life standard T2 corresponds to the “adiabatic” process 2 →3.

The selling of the product, the direction 3→4 from the diagram, is done at a price

settled by the materials and by the market:

Y = E + T2 ΔS

The process shall be closed by the recycling of the automobile, direction 4→1.

Within the processes:

• 1→2 it takes place a reduction of the entropy, ΔS < 0, being a process for the

collection, organization of the environment;

• 2→3 the entropy is conserved, ΔS = 0, so both the production structure and

the distribution of the mercancies shall be carried out in the same way;

• 3→4 in this distribution the entropy raises, ΔS > 0.

The circuit of the capital E is from 1→4→1, and it has an opposite sense to the

development of the labor process W, to the profit Q, or goods, having opposite signs.

The cycle of the money shall be followed in opposite direction:

• 1→4, it is expected the selling of the mercancy, ΔS = 0, the money of the landlord is

not modified;

• 4→3 ΔS < 0, there are collected the money from the market;

• 3→2 there is expected the redistribution of the capital, ΔS = 0;

• 2→1 there is redistributed the capital, ΔS > 0, a part of this one shall belong to the

employees as a salary.

For this cycle, the efficiency of the production, the coming backs depend only on the

difference of the levels of living and it can be calculated:


9

r = T2 – T1

T1

As the efficiency of a thermal engine, the thermodynamic efficiency, the interest

degree is expressed in percentages, but it is not equivalent to this one, and it can exceed

100%, but in thermodynamics this is not possible.

A company, equivalent to a Carnot cycle, with a little ΔS but a big ΔT is efficient, but

less secure.

In the same way, a big ΔS offers a bigger security, the form of the area indicating if

the actions are speculative or secure, the maximum efficiency being characterized by a

square form of the cycle surface.


10

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Botazzi G., Secchi A., (2003), A Stochastic Model of Firm Growth, Physica A 324,

213-219

2. Bulinski M., Costea C., (Editors) (2005 / 2006), Econophysics and Complexity,

alternative science Bridging education, research and economics, (CD teaching

support)

3. Dragulescu A.A., (2003), Aplications of physics to economics and finance: money,

income, wealth And the stock markets

4. Georgescu- Roegen, Nicolae (1972), The Entropy Law and the Economic Process,

Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press

5. Mimkes J., (2006), A Thermodynamic Formulation of Economic in Econophysics

and Sociophysics: Trends and Perspectives, Willy- VCH, Berlin

6. [www5] http: // ase.ro / biblioteca

7. [www3] http: // wikipedia. org

8. [www5] http: // finance.yahoo.com


11

LINEAR FRACTIONAL MODELING OF TIME SERIES

B. Dragovich, Institute of Physics, P.O. Box 57, 11001 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

D. Joksimovic, Faculty of Business Studies, Megatrend University, Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

J. Velimirovic, Faculty of Business Studies, Megatrend University, Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

In this paper we analyze possibility to use linear fractional recurrences as a new mathematical

physics approach to the problem of modeling and forecasting time series. In particular, we

examine their forecast ability for financial time series. To this end, we investigate how it works on

different financial data, does it also have adequate forecast ability in situations when markets are

not very stable, so that data vary a lot, and what error do we get in that case. The aim is also to

surpass mathematical problems that may occur during the modeling. We try to find the strategy

that leads to enhancement of forecast accuracy by analyzing space of parameters. The

performance of forecast depends on the forecast horizon required, so we try to improve short-

term forecast accuracy. Idea is to make an assessment of the suitability of the assumed

mathematical model for a given data set by varying number of parameters. We also examine the

behavior of the model by analyzing errors applied on the theoretically generated and real life time

series, and especially questioning whether it is appropriate for financial time series. Obtained

results are encouraging and further improvements are possible.

KEY WORDS: financial time series, modeling, forecasting, linear fractional recurrences

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Time series

A time series is a sequence of data with a certain chronological ordering. It can be also

understood as a realisation of a random process. Namely, let RtX t ∈, be a given random

process whose realisation in certain moments is:



.,,,,,,2,1,0,,,2,1,,,,2,1

21012

21

21

XXXXXtXXt

XXXnt n

−−±±===

Each of these strings is a time series. So in this sense, a time series is a string (finite or

infinite) of random variables.

One of the most important tasks when studying time series is to predict their future values,

both in the near and distant future. Due to a widespread and always topical need and call for the

answer to such a question different methods have been developed which, depending on the

nature of a time series, are all trying to produce the best possible answer to the following

question: what is the value of a time series in a certain moment in the future [ ]1 ?

1.2. Linear Fractional Transformations

A linear fractional transformation (LFT) is defined as a function of the form

zz

zf⋅+⋅+

=10

10)(ββαα

,

where z, 1010 ,,, ββαα are complex numbers satisfying 00110 ≠⋅−⋅ βαβα .

This kind of mapping is also called homographic transformation or Möbius transformation.

LFT defines one-to-one mapping of the extended complex plane (C ∪ ∞) onto itself. The set of all

LFT transformations forms a group under composition called the Möbius group. Various linear

fractional transformations and the corresponding groups play significant role in pure and applied

mathematics.

1.3. Linear Fractional Recurrences

Let us define a linear fractional recurrence relation of the first order (LFR1) as

110

110

−

−

⋅+⋅+

=k

kk z

zz

ββαα

,

where 10101 ,,,,, ββαα−kk zz are complex numbers satisfying 00110 ≠⋅−⋅ βαβα .

Let a linear fractional recurrence relation of q-th order (LFRq) [ ]2 be

∑

∑

=−+−

=−+−

−+−−

−+−−

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅++⋅+⋅+⋅++⋅+⋅+

= q

iiqki

q

iiqki

kqqkqk

kqqkqkk

z

z

zzzzzz

z

110

110

11210

11210

ββ

αα

ββββαααα

,

where ,,, iiikz βα− ( qi ,,1,0 = ) are complex numbers. In the sequel of this paper we will

use rational numbers.

2. MODELING SHORT TERM FORECASTING TIME SERIES

2.1. Model with linear fractional recurrence relation of q-th order (LFRq)

For the given time series nxxx ,,, 21 , to make the analysis simpler, we take qin += .

The predicted value 1+nx , i.e. 1++ qix , applying the method of linear fractional recurrence

relation of q-th order, is:

∑

∑

=+

=+

+++

+++++

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅++⋅+⋅+⋅++⋅+⋅+

= q

kkik

q

kkik

qiqii

qiqiiqi

x

x

xxxxxx

x

10

10

22110

221101

ββ

αα

ββββαααα

.

In this model we have )1(2 +⋅ q unknown parameters ( )ii βα , , where ( )qi ,,1,0 = .

Now the question is: what is the best way to determine these parameters? Here the best is in the

sense of the most accurate prediction of the value 1++ qix .

The natural way to find these parameters is from the condition that linear fractional

recurrence relation of q-th order is correct for )1(2 +⋅ q previous values of time series from the

close past, i.e. for values qiqiqi xxx +++−+− ,,, 1)1()1( . In other words, that following equations are

true (for ( )12 +⋅≥ qi ):

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

=+⋅+++⋅−

=+⋅+++⋅−

+⋅++−

=+++⋅−

=+++⋅−

++−

=++⋅−

=++⋅−

+−

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅+

⋅+=

q

kqkqik

q

kqkqik

qqi

q

kkqik

q

kkqik

qi

q

kkqik

q

kkqik

qi

x

xx

x

xx

x

xx

112)1(20

112)1(20

12)1(

11)1(20

11)1(20

1)1(

1)1(20

1)1(20

)1(

ββ

αα

ββ

αα

ββ

αα

From these conditions we get homogeneous system of )1(2 +⋅ q linear equations with

)1(2 +⋅ q unknown parameters ( )ii βα , , where ( )qi ,,1,0 = :

0

0

0)

112)1(2012)1(

112)1(20

11)1(201)1(

11)1(20

1)1(20)1(

1)1(20

=

⋅+⋅−⋅+

=

⋅+⋅−⋅+

=

⋅+⋅−⋅+

∑∑

∑∑

∑∑

=+⋅+++⋅−+⋅++−

=+⋅+++⋅−

=+++⋅−++−

=+++⋅−

=++⋅−+−

=++⋅−

q

kqkqikqqi

q

kqkqik

q

kkqikqi

q

kkqik

q

kkqikqi

q

kkqik

xxx

xxx

xxx

ββαα

ββαα

ββαα

This system has trivial solution 0== ii βα , which is useless. Of course, there is a

possibility that this system, except trivial, sometimes has also an infinite number of solutions

( )ii βα , , where ( )qi ,,1,0 = , but it depends on the values of time series, so we cannot expect,

in advance, that this system has another solution besides trivial one. It is interesting to explore

what characteristics of time series insures the solutions that are not trivial.

For all the above mentioned, we propose the modification of the model, in the sense that

we in advance define value of the parameter 00 ≠= Aα . We call this special linear fractional

recurrence relation of q-th order LFRq( A=0α ).

2.2. Forecasting with a special linear fractional recurrence relation of q-th order (LFRq(

A=0α ))

The predicted value of time series 1+nx , i.e. 1++ qix , applying the method of special linear

fractional recurrence relation of q-th order (LFRq( A=0α )), is:

∑

∑

=+

=+

+++

+++++

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅++⋅+⋅+⋅++⋅+⋅+

= q

kkik

q

kkik

qiqii

qiqiiqi

x

xA

xxxxxxA

x

10

1

22110

22111

ββ

α

ββββααα

.)1.2.2(

In this model we have 12 +⋅ q unknown parameters ( )ii βαβ ,,0 , where ( )qi ,,1= ,

and we find them from the condition that modified linear fractional recurrence relation of q-th

order is correct for 12 +⋅ q previouse values of time series from the close past, i.e. for the values

qiqiqi xxx +++−++− ,,, 2)1(1)1( . In other words, that following equations are true (for 12 +⋅≥ qi ):

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

=+⋅+++⋅−

=+⋅+++⋅−

+⋅++−

=+++⋅−

=+++⋅−

++−

=+++⋅−

=+++⋅−

++−

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅+

⋅+=

⋅+

⋅+=

q

kqkqik

q

kqkqik

qqi

q

kkqik

q

kkqik

qi

q

kkqik

q

kkqik

qi

x

xAx

x

xAx

x

xAx

112)1(20

112)1(2

12)1(

12)1(20

12)1(2

2)1(

11)1(20

11)1(2

1)1(

ββ

α

ββ

α

ββ

α

From these conditions we get the following system of 12 +⋅ q linear equations with

12 +⋅ q unknown parameters ( )ii βαβ ,,0 , where ( )qi ,,1= :

Axxx

Axxx

Axxx

q

kqkqikqqi

q

kqkqik

q

kkqikqi

q

kkqik

q

kkqikqi

q

kkqik

−=

⋅+⋅−⋅

−=

⋅+⋅−⋅

−=

⋅+⋅−⋅

∑∑

∑∑

∑∑

=+⋅+++⋅−+⋅++−

=+⋅+++⋅−

=+++⋅−++−

=+++⋅−

=+++⋅−++−

=+++⋅−

112)1(2012)1(

112)1(2

12)1(202)1(

12)1(2

11)1(201)1(

11)1(2 )

ββα

ββα

ββα

.)2.2.2(

This system has unique solution when the determinant of the system is different from zero,

which has place practically always. However, if the determinant of the system is equal to zero,

one can do some small modifications in values of time series, which will not affect time series but

insure unique solution.

We tested this model on the data from the past (historical simulation) for 10 == Aα and

.4,3,2,1=q

3. TEST OF THE METHOD AND DATA DESCRIPTION

We used the real time series for the forecasting with special linear fractional recurrence

relation of q-th order (LFRq( A=0α )), for 1=A and 4,3,2,1=q . We programmed modules in

the softver Matlab, which made the predictions using the data from the past, based on equations

(2.2.1) and (2.2.2.) for 1=A and 4,3,2,1=q .

We compared the forecasted values with original data from the past, calculated absolute

and relative errors of deviation, and in that way analyzed the characteristics of suggested model.

All daily data are retrieved from the site www.euronext.com. For the lack of the space, in

the section below we show only the results for the Belgium market, where we used stock price

index BEL20, closing price over the period from 1.11.2006. till 30.11.2006.

http://www.euronext.com/

We also tested the model for each of the 20 companies separetely from which BEL20 index

is composed, using the values of their stocks (for example, Belgacom, Ackermans & van Haaren,

Mobistar, Omega Pharma, etc.). Model was also applied on the other markets, like French and

German market, where we used daily data of CAC40 and DAX30 indices, and values of stocks of

their companies.

4. ESTIMATION OF RESULTS

4.1. Estimation of results for forecasting with LFR1 ( )10 =α

The predicted values from the past ,1++ qix , we get using the formula (see (2.2.1.)):

110

11,11

1

+

+++ ⋅+

⋅+=

i

ii x

xx

ββα

for 2,4,3 −= ni ,

where we get 101 ,, ββα from the (2.2.2.).

We then compare predicted data ,11++ix with the original ones 11++ix , calculate absolute

error, ( )11,

11.. ++++ −= ii xxerrabs , and relative error, 11

11,

11..++

++++ −=

i

ii

xxx

errrel , for

2,4,3 −= ni .

Graphs of predicted and original data, and relative error, for LFR1 ( )10 =α are shown

below:

Graph 1: November – real and prognostic process LFR1 ( )10 =α (red line – original

data, blue line – prognostic data)

Graph 2: Relative error LFR1 ( )10 =α



22110

2211,12

1

++

++++ ⋅+⋅+

⋅+⋅+=

ii

iii xx

xxx

βββαα

for 3,6,5 −= ni ,

where we get 21021 ,,,, βββαα from the (2.2.2.).

We then compare predicted data ,12++ix , with the original data 12++ix , calculate absolute

error, ( )12,


12,

12..++

++++ −=

i

ii

xxx

errrel , for

3,6,5 −= ni .


below:






3322110

332211,13

1

+++

+++++ ⋅+⋅+⋅+

⋅+⋅+⋅+=

iii

iiii xxx

xxxx

ββββααα

for 4,8,7 −= ni ,

where we have got 3210321 ,,,,,, ββββααα from the (2.2.2.).

Then we compare predicted data ,13++ix with the original data 13++ix , calculate absolute

error, ( )13,


13,

13..++

++++ −=

i

ii

xxx

errrel , for

4,8,7 −= ni .


below:






443322110

44332211,14

1

++++

++++++ ⋅+⋅+⋅+⋅+

⋅+⋅+⋅+⋅+=

iiii

iiiii xxxx

xxxxx

βββββαααα

for 5,10,9 −= ni ,

where we obtained 432104321 ,,,,,,,, βββββαααα from the (2.2.2.).

We also compare predicted data ,14++ix with the original ones 14++ix , calculate absolute

error, ( )14,


14,

14..++

++++ −=

i

ii

xxx

errrel , for

5,10,9 −= ni .


below:




5. CONCLUSION

Analyzing the obtained results we can make the following conclusions.

For the tested time series which is very volatile, better prediction is achieved for

smaller number of parameters q, what is expected, because in the very volatile time

series, the value of time series in some point is more dependent on its value from the

very close past. For the case when q = 1, we observe time series as the Markov

process.

Relative error is less than 5%, and that is encouraging preliminary result.

Maximal value of the absolute error is comparable with standard deviation of

successive changes in values of time series, and that is also encouraging preliminary

result.

Trend of the forecasted time series follows the trend of the original time series, and

one gets impression that it is shifted in time, which shows us a direction for the further

analysis.

In the process of solving the system (2.2.2), sometimes the determinant of the system

is very weakly conditioned, so we get some abnormal peaks as a consequence of

mentioned weakly conditioned determinant and rounding off the values of coefficients

at four decimals. Solution of these situations is another task which is ahead us.

These results are optimistic and show directions of further research and improvements of

the proposed model for forecasting time series.

According to the above analysis we suggest the following natural directions of further

investigations.

Variation of the values of parameter A.

Application of the proposed model for calculating the trend of time series when it is

decomposed to its basic components. We expect that it will bring good results for large

q.

Try to modify the model in such way that some other parameter in the former model be

a constant.

It is worth noting that in this model we used rational numbers. To have more insight into

different aspects of the model, which parameters are rational numbers, one can treat it not only

from the usual real point of view but also using p-adic numbers. On possible uses of p-adic

numbers in econometrics one can see [3]. p-Adic and adelic analysis of some dynamical

systems based on linear fractional transformations is presented in [4] and [5]. We also plan to

extend the present time series model by its p-adic and adelic counterparts.

AcknowledgementsThe work on this article was partially supported by the Ministry of Science, Serbia, under contract

No 144032D.

REFERENCES

[1] P.J. Brockwell, Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Second Edition, Springer Texts

in Statistics, 2002.

[2] E. Bedford and K. Kim, “Periodicities in Linear Fractional Recurrences: Degree growth of

birational surface maps”, arXiv:math.DS/0509645v1.

[3] B. Dragovich and D. Joksimovic, “On Possible Uses of p-Adic Analysis in Econometrics”,

Megatrend Review 4 (2) (2007) 5-16.

[4] B. Dragovich, A. Khrennikov and D. Mihajlovic, “Linear Fractional p-Adic and Adelic Dynamical

Systems”, Reports on Mathematical Physics 60 (2007) 55-68, arXiv:math-ph/0612058.

[5] B. Dragovich and D. Mihajlovic, “p-Adic and Adelic Rational Dynamical Systems”, SFIN A 20 (1) (2007) 187-196, arXiv:0707.0984v1[math-ph].

Econophysics, New Economics Ccomplexity International Conference ”ENEC 2008”HYPERION UNIVERSITY and Hyperion Research Development InstituteBucharest, ROMANIA, 14 - 16 May, 2008

Solution Principles for Nash-Stackelberg Games

Valeriu Ungureanu

Abstract. Equilibrium Principles for Hierarchical and Mixture of Hierarchical andSimultaneous Games are defined and examined by means of graphs of best responsemappings, Pareto optimal response mappings and graphs intersection.

Mathematics subject classification: 91A05, 91A06, 91A10, 91A20, 91A40, 91A44,91A65, 90C29, 90C39, 90C90.Keywords and phrases: Noncooperative game, strategic game, multiobjectivegame, Nash equilibrium (NE), Stackelberg equilibrium (SE), Nash-Stackelberg equi-librium (NSE), Pareto-Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium (PNSE), graph of a best responsemapping, graph of a Pareto optimal response mapping, graphs intersection.

1 Introduction

Interactive decisions situations, which involve both sequential decisions and si-multaneous decisions made by independent and interdependent players with oneor more objectives, can be modelled by means of strategic games (Stackelberggame [3, 18], Nash game [4], Pareto-Nash game [1, 2, 5, 7], Pareto-Nash-Stackelberggame). At every stage (level) of the Nash-Stackelberg game a Nash game is played.The stage profiles (joint decisions) are executed sequentially throughout the hier-archy as a Stackelberg game. At every stage of the multiobjective Pareto-Nash-Stackelberg game a multiobjective Pareto-Nash game is played. Stage profiles areexecuted sequentially throughout the hierarchy. Via notion of best response map-ping graph we define unsafe and safe Stackelberg equilibria for Stackelberg games,pseudo and multi-stage Nash-Stackelberg equilibria for Nash-Stackelberg games,and Pareto-Nash-Stackelberg equilibria for multiobjective Pareto-Nash-Stackelberggames.

The carried out investigation continues and extends the Nash game research viaNash equilibrium as an element of the best response mapping graphs intersection[6, 8–17].

Consider the noncooperative strategic game

Γ = 〈N, Xpp∈N , fp(x)p∈N 〉,

where

• N = 1, 2, ..., n is a set of players,

• Xp ⊆ Rkp is a set of strategies of player p ∈ N ,

c©Valeriu Ungureanu, 2008

1

2 VALERIU UNGUREANU

• kp < +∞, p ∈ N ,

• and fp(x) is a pth player cost function defined on the Cartesian productX = ×

p∈NXp — profiles set of the game. Without loss of generality suppose

that all players minimize the values of their cost functions.

Suppose that the players make their moves hierarchically:

first player chooses his strategy x1 ∈ X1 and communicates it to the secondplayer,

the second player chooses his strategy x2 ∈ X2 after observing the moves x1

of the first player and communicates x1, x2 to the third player,

and so on

at the last, the nth player selects his strategy xn ∈ Xn after observing themoves x1, ..., xn−1 of the preceding players.

On the resulting profile x = (x1, ..., xn) every player computes the value of his costfunction.

When player p ∈ N moves, players 1, 2, ..., p − 1 are leaders or prede-cessors of player p and players p + 1, ..., n are followers or successors ofthe player p. The player has all the information about the predecessors’choices and doesn’t have information about the choices of the successors,but the pth player (p < n) has all the information about the all strategysets and the cost functions of the players p, p + 1, ..., n.

By backward induction, every player n, n − 1, ..., 2 determines his best movemapping and the first player determines the set of his best moves:

Bn(x1, ..., xn−1) = Arg minyn∈Xn

fn (x1, ..., xn−1, yn) ,

Bn−1(x1, ..., xn−2) = Arg minyn−1, yn: (x1,...,xn−2, yn−1, yn)∈Grn

fn−1 (x1, ..., xn−2, yn−1, yn) ,

· · ·B2(x1) = Arg min

y2,..., yn: (x1,y2,..., yn)∈Gr3

f2 (x1, y2, ..., yn) ,

X = Arg min(y1,...,yn)∈Gr2

f1 (y1, ..., yn)

where

Grn = x ∈ X : x1 ∈ X1, ..., xn−1 ∈ Xn−1, xn ∈ Bn(x1, ..., xn−1) ,Grn−1 = x ∈ Grn : x1 ∈ X1, ..., xn−2 ∈ Xn−2, (xn−1, xn) ∈ Bn−1(x1, ..., xn−2) ,· · ·Gr2 = x ∈ Gr3 : x1 ∈ X1, (x2, ..., xn) ∈ B2(x1) .

SOLUTION PRINCIPLES FOR NASH-STACKELBERG GAMES 3

Evidently, Gr2 ⊆ Gr3 ⊆ · · · ⊆ Grn, and forms a family of nested sets.

Definition. Any profile x ∈ X of the game is called unsafe (optimistic, strong)Stackelberg equilibrium.

This definition of the unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium is equivalent with respective[3] definition. For n = 2 the unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium notion and originalStackelberg equilibrium [18] notion are equivalent.

2 Unsafe Stackelberg Equilibrium. Existence and Properties

1 Theorem. For every finite hierarchical game the set X of unsafe Stackelbergequilibria is non empty.

The proof is evident.

Corollary. The unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium notion and the Nash equilibriumnotion are not equivalent.

For the proof it’s sufficient to mention (in the theorem 1 context) that the Nashequilibrium doesn’t exist for every pure strategy finite game.

Example 1. It is considered a three-player 2×2×2 game with the cost matrices:

a1∗∗ =[

5 21 3

], a2∗∗ =

[1 33 −1

],

b1∗∗ =[

5 74 6

], b2∗∗ =

[3 48 5

],

c1∗∗ =[

2 107 3

], c2∗∗ =

[8 64 5

].

The first player moves the first, the second player moves the second and the thirdplayer moves the last.

First of all we must determine the graph Gr3 of the third player. The graph’selements are emphasized by boxes.

c1∗∗ =[

2 107 3

], c2∗∗ =

[8 64 5

].

The second player graph Gr2 is determined on the base of the Gr3. Its elementsare emphasized by two frames boxes.

b1∗∗ =

[5 7

4 6

], b2∗∗ =

[3 4

8 5

].

At the last, the set of the unsafe Stackelberg equilibria is determined on Gr2.

4 VALERIU UNGUREANU

a1∗∗ =

[5 2

1 3

], a2∗∗ =

1 3

3 −1

.

The game consists of one unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium (2, 1, 2) with the players’cost functions values (3, 4, 6). Remark, the profile (2, 1, 2) is not a Nash equilibrium.Moreover, the corresponding three matrix game doesn’t have pure strategies Nashequilibria. ¤

In the example 1 the player best move mappings are mono-valued and the re-alization of the unique unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium is natural. The situationis more complicated when the mappings are multi-valued. The realization of theunsafe Stackelberg equilibrium is problematic. The modification of the example 1illustrates this fact.

Example 1 (continuation). We modify only the elements a211, b211 and c211

of the cost matrices in example 1:

a1∗∗ =[

5 21 3

], a2∗∗ =

[+∞ 33 −1

],

b1∗∗ =[

5 74 6

], b2∗∗ =

[4 48 5

],

c1∗∗ =[

2 107 3

], c2∗∗ =

[6 64 5

].

The elements of the Gr3 are emphasized by boxes.

c1∗∗ =[

2 107 3

], c2∗∗ =

[6 64 5

].

Elements of the Gr2 are emphasized by two frames boxes.

b1∗∗ =

[5 7

4 6

], b2∗∗ =

[4 4

8 5

],

At the last, the set of the unsafe Stackelberg equilibria is determined on Gr2.

a1∗∗ =

[5 2

1 3

], a2∗∗ =

+∞ 3

3 −1

.

The game consists of the same unique unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium (2, 1, 2)with the players’ cost functions values (3, 4, 6). Unfortunately, the realization of thisequilibrium is problematic because for the third player the first strategy (the profile(2, 1, 1)) give the same value for the cost function as the second strategy (the profile(2, 1, 2)). If, at the last stage, the third player will choose the first strategy, then


at the profile (2, 1, 1) the values of the cost functions are (+∞, 4, 6). It’s a disasterresult for the first player. ¤

2 Theorem. If every strategy set Xp ⊂ Rkp , p = 1, n is compact and every costfunction fp(x1, ..., xp, ..., xn), p = 1, n is continuous by (xp, ..., xn) on Xp × · · · ×Xn

for every fixed x1 ∈ X1, ..., xp−1 ∈ Xp−1, then the unsafe Stackelberg equilibria setX is non empty.

The proof follows from the well known Calculus’ Weierstrass theorem.

3 Theorem. If every strategy set Xp ⊆ Rkp , p = 1, n is convex and every costfunction fp(x1, ..., xp, ..., xn), p = 1, n is strict convex by (xp, ..., xn) on Xp × · · · ×Xn for every fixed x1 ∈ X1, ..., xp−1 ∈ Xp−1, then the game has a unique unsafeStackelberg equilibrium with the “guaranteed” realization property.

“Guaranteed” realization means that the unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium isstrictly preferred for the all players. The proof follows from the properties of thestrict convex functions.

Remark that the strict convex requirements in the theorem 3 may be substitutedby unimodal or other requirements that guaranteed the mono-valued characteristicsof the involved best-move mappings.

3 Safe Stackelberg Equilibrium

In order to exclude the case illustrated in the continuation of the example 1 thenotion of the safe Stackelberg equilibrium is introduced, which is equivalent withrespective notion in [3].

By backward induction, every player 2, ..., n determines his best move mappingand the first player determines the set of his best moves:

Bn(x1, ..., xn−1) = Arg minyn∈Xn

fn (x1, ..., xn−1, yn) ,

Bn−1(x1, ..., xn−2) = Arg minyn−1

maxyn

(x1,...,xn−2,yn−1,yn)∈Grn

fn−1 (x1, ..., xn−2, yn−1, yn) ,

Bn−2(x1, ..., xn−3) = Arg minyn−2

maxyn−1,yn

(x1,...,xn−3,yn−2,...,yn)∈Grn−1

fn−1 (x1, ..., xn−3, yn−2, ..., yn) ,

· · ·B2(x1) = Arg min

y2

maxy3,...,yn

(x1,y2,...,yn)∈Gr3

f2 (x1, y2, ..., yn) ,

X = Arg miny1

maxy2,...,yn

(y1,...,yn)∈Gr2

f1 (y1, ..., yn)

6 VALERIU UNGUREANU

where

Grn = x ∈ X : x1 ∈ X1, ..., xn−1 ∈ Xn−1, xn ∈ Bn(x1, ..., xn−1) ,

Grn−1 =

x ∈ Grn : x1 ∈ X1, ..., xn−2 ∈ Xn−2, (xn−1, xn) ∈ Bn−1(x1, ..., xn−2)

,

· · ·Gr2 =

x ∈ Gr3 : x1 ∈ X1, (x2, ..., xn) ∈ B2(x1)

.

Evidently, Gr2 ⊆ Gr3 ⊆ · · · ⊆ Grn−1 ⊆ Grn, too.

Definition. The profile x ∈ X of the game is named safe (pessimistic, weak)Stackelberg equilibrium.

In general, the unsafe Stackelberg equilibria set is not equivalent to a safe Stack-elberg equilibria set, i.e. X 6= X. Remark that in the example 1 modified gamethe profile (1, 1, 1) (with the costs (5, 5, 2)) is a safe Stackelberg equilibrium. Thesecurity’s “payment” for the first player is “supported” also by the second playerbecause the value of his cost function increases, too.

Definition. A correspondence Γ : A → B is said to be upper hemicontinuous ifthe images of all compact sets are bounded, and: ∀a ∈ A, am → a, bm ∈ Γ(am), andbm → b, it follows that b ∈ Γ(a).

In words, this definition simply says that a correspondence is upper hemicontin-uous if and only if it has a closed graph and the image of compact sets is bounded.

Definition. A correspondence Γ : A → B is said to be lower hemicontinuous atthe point a if the images of all compact sets are bounded, and:

for each convergent sequence in the domain am → a, and each value in the range(b ∈ Γ(a)), there exists a sequence such that (bm → b). The sequence is such thatthe m-th point of the sequence in the range (bm) is in the range of the m-th pointin the sequence in the domain (am), for all m > M for some value of M .

Or, stated entirely in set notation, am → a(a, am ∈ A), ∀b ∈ Γ(a) : ∃M,∃bm → bsuch that bm ∈ Γ(am),m > M.

In addition, for n = 2 the safe Stackelberg equilibrium is not always an unsafeStackelberg equilibrium.

Theorems 1−3 analogs for safe Stackelberg equilibrium may be formulated andproved. In the theorem 3 conditions the unsafe and safe Stackelberg equilibria areidentical.

4 Pseudo-Equilibrium. Nash-Stackelberg Equilibrium

Consider the strategic game

Γ = 〈N, X lpl∈S,p∈Nl

, f lp(x)l∈S,p∈Nl

〉,where


• S = 1, 2, ..., s is a set of stages,

• Nl = 1, 2, ..., nl is a set of players at stage (level) l ∈ S,

• X lp ⊆ Rkl

p is a set of strategies of player p ∈ Nl at stage l ∈ S,

• s < +∞, nl < +∞, l ∈ S,

• and f lp(x) is a lth stage pth player cost function defined on the Cartesian prod-

uct X = ×p∈Nl,l∈S

X lp.

Elements x = (x11, x

12, ..., x

1n1

, x21, x

22, ..., x

2n2

, ..., xs1, x

s2, ..., x

sns

) ∈ X form profilesof the game.

Suppose that the players make their moves hierarchically:

at the first stage players 1, 2, ..., n1 selects their strategies x11 ∈ X1

1 , x12 ∈ X1

2 ,..., x1

n1∈ X1

n1simultaneously and communicate it to the second stage players

1, 2, ..., n2,

the second stage players 1, 2, ..., n2 select simultaneously their strategiesx2

1 ∈ X21 , x2

2 ∈ X22 , ..., x2

n2∈ X2

n2after observing the moves (x1

1, x12, ..., x

1n1

)of the first stage players and communicate two stages result to the third stageplayers,

and so on

the sth stage players 1, 2, ..., ns select simultaneously their strategiesxs

1 ∈ Xs1 , xs

2 ∈ Xs2 , ..., xs

ns∈ Xs

nsat the last after observing the moves

(x11, x

12, ..., x

1n1

, x21, x

22, ..., x

2n2

, ..., xs−11 , xs−1

2 , ..., xs−1ns−1

) of the precedent stagesplayers.

On the resulting profile x = (x11, x

12, ..., x

1n1

, x21, x

22, ..., x

2n2

, ..., xs1, x

s2, ..., x

sns

) everyplayer computes the value of his cost function.

Suppose that the lth stage pth player has all information about allstrategy sets and the cost functions of the players of stages l, l + 1, ..., s.Without loss of generality suppose that all players minimize the values oftheir cost functions.

Definition. The profile x ∈ X of the game is pseudo-equilibrium if for everyl ∈ S there exist yl+1 ∈ X l+1, ..., yn ∈ Xn such that

f lp(x

1, ..., xl−1, xlp‖xl

−p , yl+1, ..., yn) ≥ f lp(x

1, ..., xl, yl+1, ..., yn), ∀xlp ∈ X l

p, ∀p ∈ Nl,

where xl−p = (xl1, ..., x

lp−1, x

lp+1, ..., x

lnl

).

Accordingly the definition, players 1, 2, ..., nl, l = 1, 2, ..., s − 1, s select their

8 VALERIU UNGUREANU

pseudo-equilibrium strategies:

B1p(χ1

−p) = Arg minx1

p∈X1p

f1p

(x1

p‖χ1−p

), p ∈ N1,

(x1, x2, ..., xs) ∈ PE1 =⋂

p∈N1

Gr1p,

B2p(x1, χ2

−p) = Arg minx2

p∈X2p

f2p

(x1, x2

p‖χ2−p

), p ∈ N2,

(x1, x2, x3, ..., xs) ∈ PE2 =⋂

p∈N2

Gr2p,

· · ·Bs

p(x1, x2, ..., xs−1, χs

−p) = Arg minxs

p∈Xsp

fsp

(x1, ..., xs−1, xs

p‖χs−p

), p ∈ Ns,

(x1, x2, ..., xs) ∈ PEs =⋂

p∈Ns

Grsp,

where

Gr1p =

(x1, ..., xs) : x1

p ∈ B1p(χ1−p)

, p ∈ N1,

Gr2p =

(x1, x2, ..., xs) : x2

p ∈ B2p(x1, χ2−p)

, p ∈ N2,

· · ·Grs

p =(x1, ..., xs−1, xs) : xs

p ∈ Bsp(x

1, ..., xs−1, χs−p)

, p ∈ Ns,

χl−p = (xl−p, xl+1, ..., xs) ∈ X l−p ×X l+1 × · · · ×Xs,

X l−p = X l1 × ...×X l

p−1 ×X lp+1 × ...×X l

nl.

Surely, the set of all pseudo-equilibria is PE = PEs.

Example 2. Consider a four-player 2× 2× 2× 2 two-stage game with the costmatrices:

a∗∗11 =[

5 86 4

], a∗∗12 =

[6 45 9

], a∗∗21 =

[3 21 1

], a∗∗22 =

[2 33 2

],

b∗∗11 =[

4 76 8

], b∗∗12 =

[3 76 4

], b∗∗21 =

[7 35 3

], b∗∗22 =

[8 31 9

],

c∗∗11 =[

5 24 5

], c∗∗12 =

[ −1 33 2

], c∗∗21 =

[1 24 3

], c∗∗22 =

[3 54 −2

],

d∗∗11 =[

6 21 3

], d∗∗12 =

[ −2 33 1

], d∗∗21 =

[7 21 3

], d∗∗22 =

[6 33 −1

].

The first and the second players move at the first stage, the third and the fourthplayers move at the second stage.

Elements of Gr11 and Gr1

2 are emphasized in matrices by bold fonts.Evidently, PE1 consists of two elements: (1, 1, 1, 1) and (2, 2, 2, 1).Suppose, the first and the second players choose the strategies 1 and 1.


At the second stage, the third and the fourth players have to play a matrix gameswith matrices:

c11∗∗ =[

5 −11 3

], d11∗∗ =

[6 −27 6

].

PE2 contains a profile (1, 1, 1, 2). Thus, the profile (1, 1, 1, 2) with costs(6, 3,−1,−2) is a two-stage pseudo-equilibrium.

Suppose, the first and the second players choose the strategies 2 and 2.

Then, at the second stage, the third and the fourth players have to play a matrixgame with matrices:

c22∗∗ =[

5 23 −2

], d22∗∗ =

[3 13 −1

].

The set PE2 contains profile (2, 2, 2, 2). Thus, the profile (2, 2, 2, 2) with costs(2, 9,−2,−1) is a two-stage pseudo-equilibrium.

Evidently, both pseudo-equilibria (1, 1, 1, 2) and (2, 2, 2, 2) aren’t Nash equilib-rium. ¤

The pseudo-equilibrium definition does not used the information that at thefollowing stage the stage players will choose the strategy accordingly the pseudo-equilibrium statement. As the result, the profiles do not safe the required statementat all stages.

For excluding this inconvenient, it’s reasonable to choose strategies by backwardinduction procedure and thus we obtain a new equilibrium notion.

By stage backward induction, players 1, 2, ..., nl, l = s, s − 1, ..., 2, 1 select their

10 VALERIU UNGUREANU

equilibrium strategies:

Bsp(x

1, ..., xs−1, xs−p) = Arg min

ysp∈Xs

p

fsp

(x1, ..., xs−1, ys

p‖xs−p

), p ∈ Ns,

NSEs =⋂

p∈Ns

Grsp,

Bs−1p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−1

−p ) == Arg min

ys−1p , ys:

(x1,...,xs−2, ys−1p ‖xs−1

−p , ys)∈NSEs

fs−1p

(x1, ..., xs−2, ys−1

p ‖xs−1−p , ys

), p ∈ Ns−1,

NSEs−1 =⋂

p∈Ns−1

Grs−1p ,

Bs−2p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−3

−p ) == Arg min

ys−2p , ys−1, ys:

(x1,...,xs−3, ys−2p ‖xs−2

−p , ys−1, ys)∈NSEs−1

fs−2p

(x1, ..., xs−3, ys−2

p ‖xs−2−p , ys−1, ys

),

p ∈ Ns−2,

NSEs−2 =⋂

p∈Ns−2

Grs−2p ,

· · ·B1

p(x1−p) = Arg min

y1p, y2,...,ys:(y1

p‖x1−p, y2,...,ys)∈NSE2

f1p

(y1

p‖x1−p, y2, ..., ys

), p ∈ N1,

NSE1 =⋂

p∈N1

Gr1p,

where

Grsp =

x ∈ X :

xl ∈ X l, l = 1, s− 1,xs−p ∈ Xs−p,

xsp ∈ Bs

p(x1, ..., xs−1, xs−p)

, p ∈ Ns,

Grs−1p =

x ∈ NSEs :

xl ∈ X l, l = 1, s− 2,

xs−1−p ∈ Xs−1

−p ,

xs−1p ∈ Bs−1

p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−1−p )

, p ∈ Ns−1,

· · ·Gr1

p =

x ∈ NSE2 :x1−p ∈ X1−p,

x1p ∈ B1

p(x1−p)

, p ∈ N1.

Of course, NSE1 ⊆ NSE2 ⊆ · · · ⊆ NSEs.

Definition. Every element of the NSE1 is called Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium.

The set of all Nash-Stackeberg equilibria NSE1 is denoted by NSE also.If s = 1 and n1 > 1, then every Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium is the Nash

equilibrium. If s > 1 and n1 = n2 = ... = ns = 1, then every equilibrium isan unsafe Stackelberg equilibrium. Thus, the Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium notion


generalizes the both Stackelberg and Nash equilibria notions.

Example 2 (the first continuation). For the NSE illustration consider thesame four-player 2×2×2×2 two-stage game with the cost matrices as in the example2. It’s opportune to represent the cost matrices as follows:

a11∗∗ =[

5 63 2

], a12∗∗ =

[8 42 3

], a21∗∗ =

[6 51 3

], a22∗∗ =

[4 91 2

],

b11∗∗ =[

4 37 8

], b12∗∗ =

[7 73 3

], b21∗∗ =

[6 65 1

], b22∗∗ =

[8 43 9

],

c11∗∗ =[

5 −11 3

], c12∗∗ =

[2 32 5

], c21∗∗ =

[4 34 4

], c22∗∗ =

[5 23 −2

],

d11∗∗ =[

6 −27 6

], d12∗∗ =

[2 32 3

], d21∗∗ =

[1 31 3

], d22∗∗ =

[3 13 −1

].

Elements of Gr23, Gr2

4 are emphasized in matrices by bold fonts.NSE2 consists of profiles: (1, 1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 1, 1), (1, 2, 2, 1), (2, 1, 2, 1), (2, 2, 1, 2),

(2, 2, 2, 2).At the first stage, the first and the second players have to play a specific matrix

game with incomplete matrices:

a11∗∗ =[ · 6· ·

], a12∗∗ =

[8 ·2 ·

], a21∗∗ =

[ · ·1 ·

], a22∗∗ =

[ · 9· 2

],

b11∗∗ =[ · 3· ·

], b12∗∗ =

[7 ·3 ·

], b21∗∗ =

[ · ·5 ·

], b22∗∗ =

[ · 4· 9

],

Elements of Gr11, Gr1

2 are emphasized in matrices by bold fonts.NSE1 consists only from one profile (1, 2, 2, 1) with the costs (2, 3, 2, 2).Evidently, PE = PE2 6= NSE = NSE1.As can be seen, if the first and the second players choose their strategies 1 and

2 at the first stage, then the third and the fourth players can move also 1 and 2 atthe second stage, because the profile (1, 2, 1, 2) will have for them the same costs2 and 2. Unfortunately, for the first and the second players the cost will be 8 and7, respectively. For the first and second players the profile (1, 2, 1, 2) is worse than(1, 2, 2, 1).

Thus, as in Stackelberg game, it’s necessary and reasonable to introduce a notionof safe Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. ¤


By stage backward induction, players 1, 2, ..., nl, l = s, s − 1, ..., 2, 1 select theirequilibrium strategies:

Bsp(x

1, ..., xs−1, xs−p) = Arg min

ysp∈Xs

p

fsp

(x1, ..., xs−1, ys

p‖xs−p

), p ∈ Ns,

SNSEs = NSEs =⋂

p∈Ns

Grsp,

Bs−1p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−1

−p ) == Arg min

ys−1p

maxys

(x1,...,xs−2, ys−1p ‖xs−1

−p , ys)∈SNSEs

fs−1p

(x1, ..., xs−2, ys−1

p ‖xs−1−p , ys

), p ∈ Ns−1,

SNSEs−1 =⋂

p∈Ns−1

Grs−1p ,

Bs−2p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−3

−p ) == Arg min

ys−2p

maxys−1, ys

(x1,...,xs−3, ys−2p ‖xs−2

−p , ys−1, ys)∈NSEs−1

fs−2p

(x1, ..., xs−3, ys−2

p ‖xs−2−p , ys−1, ys

),

p ∈ Ns−2, SNSEs−2 =⋂

p∈Ns−2

Grs−2p ,

· · ·B1

p(x1−p) = Arg min

y1p

maxy2,...,ys

(y1p‖x1

−p, y2,...,ys)∈NSE2

f1p

(y1

p‖x1−p, y2, ..., ys

), p ∈ N1,

SNSE1 =⋂

p∈N1

Gr1p,

where

Grsp =

x ∈ X :

xl ∈ X l, l = 1, s− 1,xs−p ∈ Xs−p,

xsp ∈ Bs

p(x1, ..., xs−1, xs−p)

, p ∈ Ns,

Grs−1p =

x ∈ NSEs :

xl ∈ X l, l = 1, s− 2,

xs−1−p ∈ Xs−1

−p ,

xs−1p ∈ Bs−1

p (x1, ..., xs−2, xs−1−p )

, p ∈ Ns−1,

· · ·Gr1

p =

x ∈ NSE2 :x1−p ∈ X1−p,

x1p ∈ B1

p(x1−p)

, p ∈ N1.

Surely, SNSE1 ⊆ SNSE2 ⊆ · · · ⊆ SNSEs.

Definition. Elements of SNSE1 are called safe Nash-Stackelberg equilibria.

The set of all safe Nash-Stackeberg equilibria SNSE1 is denoted by SNSE also.

Example 2 (the second continuation). Observe, that at the second stageSNSE2 = NSE2.

At the first stage, the first and the second players have to play a specific matrixgame with the same incomplete matrices:


a11∗∗ =[ · 6· ·

], a12∗∗ =

[8 ·2 ·

], a21∗∗ =

[ · ·1 ·

], a22∗∗ =

[ · 9· 2

],

b11∗∗ =[ · 3· ·

], b12∗∗ =

[7 ·3 ·

], b21∗∗ =

[ · ·5 ·

], b22∗∗ =

[ · 4· 9

],

The elements of Gr11, Gr1

2 are emphasized in matrices by bold fonts. (In every2 × 2 matrix the maximal element is selected. After that, the first player with thefixed strategy of the second player, chooses the matrix with the minimal among themaximal selected elements. In the same manner, the second player constructs hisgraph. The graphs intersection consists of a single element.)

SNSE1 consists only of one profile (2, 1, 2, 1) with costs (1, 5, 4, 1).Consequently, for the considered game there are two PE (1, 1, 1, 2) and (2, 2, 2, 2)

with costs (6, 3,−1,−2) and (2, 9,−2,−1), respectively, one NSE (1, 2, 2, 1) withcosts (2, 3, 2, 2) and one SNSE (2, 1, 2, 1) with costs (1, 5, 4, 1). None of these profilesare better for all players. The problem of the equilibrium principle selection isopened. ¤

5 Multi-objective pseudo-equilibrium. Pareto-Nash-StackelbergEquilibrium

Consider the multiobjective strategic game

Γ = 〈N, X lpl∈S,p∈Nl

, f lp(x)l∈S,p∈Nl

〉,with vector cost functions f l

p(x)l∈S,p∈Nl.

In the same manner as for Nash-Stackelberg games the equilibrium principlescan be introduced. An essential difference in corresponding definitions is the strongrequirement that every minimization or maximization operator must be interpretedas Pareto maximization or minimization operator. Evidently, the Pareto optimalresponse mapping and the graph of the Pareto optimal response mapping are con-sidered for every player. An intersection of the graphs of Pareto optimal responsemappings is considered in every definition as the stage profile.

6 Conclusions

The examined processes of decision making are very often phenomena of real life.Their mathematical modelling as Pareto-Nash-Stackelberg games gives an powerfultool for investigation, analysis and solving hierarchical decision problems. Never-theless, the problem of equilibrium principle choosing in real situations is a task forboth a decision maker and a game theorist.


It’s interesting to mention that the proposed models based on graphs of playersoptimal response mappings, give us the recurrent relations, similarly as that usedtraditionally on dynamic programming. It’s obvious that a concrete n stage dynamicproblem solving may be considered, for example, as an n players Stackelberg game,such that at every stage the same player moves, using the same objective function.

References

[1] Blackwell D., An analog of the minimax theorem for vector payoffs. – Pacific Journal ofMathematics,Vol. 6, 1956, pp. 1-8.

[2] Born P., Tijs S. and van den Aarssen J. Pareto equilibria in multiobjective games. – Meth-ods of Operations Research,Vol. 60, 1988, pp. 302-312.

[3] Leitmann G., On Generalized Stackelberg Strategies. – Journal of Optimization Theory andApplications,Vol. 26, 1978, pp. 637-648.

[4] Nash J.F., Noncooperative game. – Annals of Mathematics, Vol. 54, 1951, pp. 280-295.

[5] Podinovskii V.V. and Nogin V.D., Pareto-optimal solutions of the multi-criteria problems.– Moscow, Nauka, 1982 (in Russian).

[6] Sagaidac M. and Ungureanu V., Operational research. – Chisinau, CEP USM, 2004, 296 p.(in Romanian).

[7] Shapley L.S., Equilibrium Points in Games with Vector Payoffs. – Naval Research LogisticsQuarterly, Vol. 6, 1959, pp. 57-61.

[8] Ungureanu V., Mathematical programming. – Chisinau, USM, 2001, 344 p. (in Romanian).

[9] Ungureanu V. and Botnari A., Nash equilibria sets in mixed extension of 2× 2× 2 games.– Computer Science Journal of Moldova, Vol. 13, no. 1 (37), 2005, pp. 13-28.

[10] Ungureanu V. and Botnari A., Nash equilibria sets in mixed extended 2 × 3 games. –Computer Science Journal of Moldova, Vol. 13, no. 2 (38), 2005, pp. 136-150.

[11] Ungureanu V., A method for Nash equilibria set computing in multi-matrix extended games. –Spanish-Italian-Netherlands Game Theory Meeting (SING2) and XVI Italian Meeting on GameTheory (XVI IMGTA), Foggia, Italy, 14-17 June 2006, Conference Book, 2006, p. 156.

[12] Ungureanu V., Nash equilibria set computing in finite extended games. – Computer ScienceJournal of Moldova, Vol. 14, no. 3 (42), 2006, pp. 345-365.

[13] Ungureanu V., Nash Equilibrium Conditions for Normal Form Strategic Games. – The XIV-th Conference on Applied and Industrial Mathematics dedicated to the 60-th anniversary of thefoundation of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science of Moldova State University(CAIM XIV), Satellite Conference of ICM 2006, Chisinau, august 17-19, 2006, p. 328-330.

[14] Ungureanu V., Nash Equilibrium Conditions — Extensions of Some Classical Theo-rems. – CODE-2007: Conference de la SMAI sur l’Optimisation et la Decision, Col-loque satellite de la conference SMAI-2007, Institut Henri Poincare, Paris 18-20 avril 2007,http://www.ann.jussieu.fr/∼plc/code2007/ungureanu.pdf.

[15] Ungureanu V., Nash Equilibrium Conditions for Strategic Form Games. – 6th InternationalCongress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics, ETH and University of Zurich, Switzerland,16-20 July 2007, Abstract Book, p. 436.

[16] Ungureanu V., Nash Equilibrium Conditions for Strategic Form Games. – LibertasMathematica.- 2007, T. XXVII, p. 131-140.


[17] Ungureanu V., Set of Nash Equilibria in 2x2 Mixed Extended Games. – The Wolfram Demon-strations Projecthttp://demonstrations.wolfram.com/SetOfNashEquilibriaIn2x2MixedExtendedGames/Posted November 17, 2007.

[18] Von Stackelberg, H., Marktform und Gleichgewicht. – Springer Verlag, Vienna, 1934.

Mathematics and Computer Science Department,State University of Moldova,str. A. Mateevici, 60, Chisinau, MD-2009,Republic of MoldovaPhone: +373 22 488 187E-mail: [email protected]

Tarafdar Type General Equilibrium

Rodica-Mihaela Dăneţ and Marian-Valentin PopescuDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science

Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest124,Lacul Tei Blvd.,036296 Bucharest, Romania

e-mail:[email protected]@gmail.com

Abstract. In this paper, we prove two general equilibrium theorems in the line of

the Tarafdar type results. These theorems give sufficient conditions for the existence

of an equilibrium point ( and of a maximal element ) for a generalized abstract

economy ( respectively for a qualitative game ) .

Concerning this terminology, by a generalized abstract economy we

understand a family ( ), , ,i i i i i IX A B P

∈Γ = consisting of: an index set I of agents

( or players ), a choice or strategy set iX in a topological vector space, two

constraint multimaps ( correspondences ) , : 2 iXi i i

i I

A B X X∈

= →Ő and a

preference multimap ( correspondence ) : 2 .iXiP X → An equilibrium point

( )i i Ix x

∈= for this economy is the one satisfying the conditions ( )i ix B x∈ and

( ) ( )i iA x P x∩ = Ć , for each i I∈ .

Also, a qualitative game is a family ( ),i i i IX P

∈Γ = , where I , iX , and iP are

like as in a generalized abstract economy. A maximal point for this game is an

element ii I

x X X∈

∈ = Ő such that ( )iP x = Ć , for each i I∈ .

For the proof of our general equilibrium theorems, we use some results of

R.- M. Dăneţ ( 2006 ) concerning the existence of a fixed point for a family of

multimaps. Note that such results can be also applied to obtain various general

1


equilibrium theorems, for example in the forms of Nash type, Yannelis-Prabhakar

type and Lin-Yu-Ansari-Lai type problems.

A short history of the application of the fixed point theory for multimaps in the

mathematical economics is presented in the introduction of our paper. The section of

“Preliminaries” contains the above mentioned results of R.- M. Dăneţ about the

existence of a collectively fixed point for a family of multimaps defined on product

spaces and formulated in the line of the Lin-Yu-Ansari-Lai results. The section “Main

results” contains our general equilibrium results.

1. Introduction

Many results concerning fixed point theory can be applied in the equilibrium theory, giving, for example, the existence of a solution for equilibrium in abstract economies or generalized games and in generalized abstract economies with preference multimaps.

In 1975, W. Shafer and H. Sonnenschein proved the existence of equilibria for abstract economies without ordered preferences.

Over the last thirty years, more general existence results appeared in the literature. To make a partial list of these results, we mention: A. Borglin and H. Keiding (1976), D. Gale and A. Mas Colell (1978), N. C.Yannelis (1987), C. Ionescu-Tulcea (1988), E. Tarafdar (1988), K. K.Tan and G. X.- Z.Yuan (1994).All these results assume directly or indirectly the lower-semicontinuity of the multimaps representing the constraints of each agent.

In 1999, G. X.- Z.Yuan and E. Tarafdar proved some existence theorems for equilibrium of compact or noncompact qualitative games and generalized games in which the constraint or preference multimaps have supplementary properties.

The existence of equilibrium in an abstract economy with compact strategy sets in nˇ was proved in a seminal paper of G. Debreu.

The theorem of Debreu extended the earlier work of J. Nash in game theory ( Around 1950, J. Nash contributed several key concepts to game theory. When the 21-years old J. Nash wrote his 27-pages dissertation outlining his “Nash Equilibrium” for the strategic non-cooperative games, the impact was enormous. His existence proof is one of the first applications of Kakutani’s fixed point theorem and gives him the Nobel Prize in Economics).

There exist many generalizations of Debreu’s theorem, for example, by A. Borglin and H. Keiding (1976).Following their paper and, also, the paper of D. Gale and A. Mas-Colell (1978), on non-ordered preference relations, many theorems on the existence of maximal elements of preference relations, which may not be transitive or complete have been proved by T. C. Bergs (1976), M. Walker (1977), N. C. Yannelis and D. Prabhakar (1983), S. Toussaint (1984), N. C. Yannelis (1985), C. Ionescu-Tulcea (1988), G. Mehta (1990).

In this paper we give two results of Tarafdar type equilibrium theorems, for generalized abstract economies and qualitative games.

2

For the proof of the existence of an equilibrium point, we use some results (2006) of R.- M. Dăneţ. concerning the existence of a fixed point for a family of multimaps.

Now we recall some definitions and notations, reviewing the mathematical and economical concepts that we need.

For a nonempty set X , 2X denotes the class of all subsets of X . A multimap is a function : 2YT X → ; in another terminology, a multimap is also known as a set valued function, a mapping, a map or a correspondence (here X andY are two nonempty sets).

A multimap arises naturally in many economic applications, for instance, budget correspondence, excess demand correspondence etc.).

The biggest difference between functions and multimaps has to do with the definition of an inverse image:a) the inverse image of a set A under a function f is the set ( ) :x f x A∈ ;b) for a multimap : 2YT X → , the inverse of B by T ( B Y⊆ ), is defined by

( ) ( ) 1 :T B x X T x B− = ∈ =But, there exist two reasonable generalizations: the upper inverse and the lower inverse;the upper inverse of B by T is the set ( ) ( ) :T B x X T x B+ = ∈ ⊆ ;

the lower inverse of B by T is the set ( ) ( ) :T B x X T x B− = ∈ ∩ ą Ć .Note that, in this paper we will use only the lower inverse of a set B by a

multimap T , but we will write ( )1T B− instead of ( )T B− . We will denote also

( )1T y− instead of ( )1T y− . Therefore, ( )1x T y−∈ if and only if ( )y T x∈ . A multimap : 2YT X → is a nonempty-valued (convex-valued, or

compact-valued) if the set ( )T x is a nonempty (respectively convex, or compact) for each x X∈ . The fiber of the multimap : 2YT X → at the point y Y∈ , is the set

( )1T y− . Let I be a countable or uncountable set of agents (or players). For each

i I∈ , suppose her/his choice or strategy set iX is a nonempty subset of a topological vector space.

Let ii I

X X∈

= Ő . For each i I∈ , let : 2 iXiP X → be a multimap. Following the

notion of T. Gale and A. Mas-Colell, the collection ( ),i i i IX P

∈Γ = is called a

qualitative game. A point x X∈% is said to be an equilibrium of the game Γ , if ( )iP x = Ć% , for all i I∈ .

A generalized abstract economy (or a generalized game) is a family of quadruples ( ), , ,i i i i i I

X A B P∈

Γ = , where I is a (finite or infinite) set of players

3

(agents) such that, for each i I∈ , iX is a nonempty subset of a topological vector

space; , : 2 iXi i i

i I

A B X X∈

= →Ő are constraint multimaps and : 2 iXiP X → is a

preference multimap. An equilibrium for Γ is a point x X∈% such that, for each i I∈ , ( )i ix B x∈% % and ( ) ( )i iA x P x∩ = Ć% % .2. Preliminaries

In 2006, having as a starting point a result of Q. H. Ansari and J. C. Yao (see [AY]), R.- M. Dăneţ proved a result (see Proposition 1 below) concerning the existence of a fixed point for a family of multimaps. This result was formulated (for example, in [DPV],Theorem 3.1) in the following framework.

Let I be an index set and for each i I∈ , let iE be a Hausdorff topological vector space.

Let ( )i i IX

∈ be a family of nonempty convex subsets with each iX in iE .

Let ii I

X X∈

= Ő . Let also C X⊆ be a nonempty compact subset.

In the result of Ansari and Yao (see[AY],Theorem2) there are two families of multimaps ( )i i I

S∈ and ( )i i I

T∈ , , : 2 iX

i iS T X → , related by the condition ( ) ( )co i iS x T x⊆ , for each i I∈ and x X∈ . Also, let us observe that, imposing

some conditions to the family ( )i i IS

∈ , they obtained a common fixed point for the

family ( )i i IT

∈ .The Ansari and Yao’s result was generalized in a certain sense, in 2003,

by L.- J. Lin, Z.- T. Yu, Q. H. Ansari and L. P. Lai (see[LYAL],Theorem3.1).Inspired by this last results, R.- M. Dăneţ formulated another generalization of the Ansari and Yao’s result, for a single family of multimaps which are nonempty-valued and convex-valued.

Proposition 1. For each i I∈ , let : 2 iXiT X → be a nonempty-valued and

convex-valued multimap (that is, for each x X∈ , the set ( )iT x is a nonempty convex subset of iX ). Suppose that the following conditions hold:1) for each i I∈ , X can be covered with the interiors of all fibers of iT , i.e.

( ) 1int :X i i i iX T y y X−= ∈U ;

2) if X is not compact, assume that for each i I∈ and for each finite subset iF of iX ,there exists a nonempty compact convex set iFC in iX such that iF iC FĘ and \X C can be covered with the interiors of all fibers of iT at the points of

iFC , i.e. ( ) 1\ int :iX i i i FX C T y y C−⊆ ∈U .

Then, there exists ( )i i Ix x X

∈= ∈% % , such that ( )i ix T x∈% % , for each i I∈ (i.e. x% is a

fixed point for the family ( )i i IT

∈ ).

4

Let us remark that the proof of the Proposition 1 (very technical but standard) follows the idea of the original theorem of Ansari and Yao, that is to use the partition of unity subordinated to a finite subcovering of a compact product space and to apply the Tychonoff’s fixed point theorem (“If X is a compact set in a locally convex Hausdorff topological vector space and :h X X→ is a continous function,then h has a fixed point”-see for example [T]).

The following collectively fixed point result (see, for example [DPV], Theorem 3.2) can be proved with understanding changes in the proof of the Proposition 1 and generalizes Theorem 1 of [AY] .

Proposition 2 For each i I∈ , let , : 2 iXi iS T X → be two nonempty-valued

multimaps, such that:0) for each i I∈ and each x X∈ , ( ) ( )co i iS x T x⊆ ;1) for each i I∈ , X can be covered with the interiors of all fibers of iS , that is

( ) 1int :X i i i iX S y y X−= ∈U ;

2) if X is not compact, assume that for each i I∈ and each finite set iF of iX , there exists a nonempty compact convex set iFC in iX such that iF iC FĘ and

( ) 1\ int :iX i i i FX C S y y C−⊆ ∈U .

Then, there exists x X∈% such that ( )i ix T x∈% % , for each i I∈ .Remark. Obviously, according to the condition “0)”, only iS must be a non-empty valued multimap.

As a simple consequence of the Proposition 2, we obtain the following result (see [AY], Theorem 1).

Corollary 3. For each i I∈ , let , : 2 iX

i iS T X → be nonempty-valued multimaps, such that:0) for each i I∈ and each x X∈ , ( ) ( )co i iS x T x⊆ ;

1). ( ) 1int :X i i i iX S y y X−= ∈U ;2) if X is not compact, assume that for each i I∈ , there exists a nonempty compact convex subset iC of iX such that

( ) 1\ int :X i i i iX C S y y C−⊆ ∈U .

Then, there exists x X∈% such that ( )i ix T x∈% % , for each i I∈ .

Proof For each i I∈ and each finite subset iF of iX , we define ( )co

iF i iC C F= Č . Therefore, it follows that iF iC FĘ and the set iFC is compact and convex. Now, we apply Proposition 2.

5

3. Main Results

In this section, we apply Corollary 3 to the existence of the equilibrium points (and maximal elements) for general abstract economies (respectively qualitative games).

Definition. A generalized abstract economy (a generalized game) ( ), , ,i i i i i IX A B P

∈Γ = consists of : an index set I of agents (or players), a choice or strategy set iX in a topological vector space iE , two constraint multimaps

(correspondences) , : 2 iXi i i

i I

A B X X∈

= →Ő and a preference multimap

(correspondence) : 2 iXiP X → .

Remark. The index set I is any set (countable or not) of agents (or players). The choice set (the strategy set) iX is the nonempty set of actions available to the agent i . For each x X∈ and i I∈ , ( )iA x (respectively ( )iB x ) is the state attainable for the agent i , at x , under the constraint iA (respectively iB ) and

( )iP x is the state preference by the agent i , at x .

Definition. A qualitative game is a family ( ),i i i IX P

∈Γ = , where I , iX and iP

are like as in the definition of a generalized abstract economy.

Definition. An equilibrium point ( )i i Ix x

∈= for a generalized abstract economy

( ), , ,i i i i i IX A B P

∈Γ = is the one satisfying the conditions: ( )i ix B x∈ and

( ) ( )i iA x P x∩ = Ć , for each i I∈ .

Definition. A maximal point of the qualitative game ( ),i i i IX P

∈Γ = is an element

x X∈ such that ( )iP x = Ć , for each i I∈ ( : 2 iXiP X → ).

Remark. Obviously Ć is the minimal set in 2 iX ordered by the inclusion. We call an element x X∈ with ( )iP x = Ć a “maximal” element for iP , and not a “minimal”element, because the multimap iP is associated with a preference relation “f ” defined on X (hence “f ” is a strictly ordering on X ) such that

( ) :i i i i iP x z X z x= ∈ f , that is ( )iP x is the upper contour set of ix . If for eachi I∈ does not exists i iz X∈ with i iz xf , that is such that ( )iP x = Ć , then x is a maximal element for “f ”.

Now we can prove an equilibrium theorem for a generalized abstract economy. In this theorem, we consider K a nonempty compact subset of the

6

product space ii I

X X∈

= Ő ( ii I

K K∈

= Ő , where, for each i I∈ , iK is a nonempty

compact subset of iX ).

Theorem 4. Let ( ), , ,i i i i i IX A B P

∈Γ = a generalized abstract economy (or a

generalized game) such that:(1) iX is a nonempty convex subset of a Hausdorff topological vector space and

iK is a nonempty compact subset of iX ;(2) for each x X∈ , ( ) ( )co i i iA x B x K⊆ ⊆ ;

(3) ( ) ( )( )( ) 1 1co int :X i i i i i i iK A y P y G y K− −⊆ ∩ ∈ČU where

( ) ( ) :i i iG x X A x P x= ∈ ∩ = Ć ;

(4) for each ( )i i Ix x X

∈= ∈ , ( )coi ix P xĎ .

Then Γ has an equilibrium point in coK , that is there exists cox K∈% such that for each i I∈ , ( )i ix B x∈% % and ( ) ( )i iA x P x∩ = Ć% % (hence ix G∈% ).

Proof. For each i I∈ , we consider the following sets and multimaps:( ) ( ) :i i iF x X A x P x= ∈ ∩ ą Ć , and

, : 2 iKi iS T X → defined by

( )( ) ( )

( )

co ,

,

i i i

i

i i

A x P x x FS x

A x x G

∩ ∈ěď= ď ∈

( )( ) ( )

( )

co ,

,

i i i

i

i i

B x P x x FT x

B x x G

∩ ∈ěď= ď ∈

Then, we can prove that the hypothesis of Corollary 3 are fulfilled.Indeed, the condition”0)” of Corollary 3 holds, i.e. for each i I∈ and

x X∈ , ( ) ( )co i iS x T x⊆ .

Let ( ) ,1

con

i i i j i jj

x S x x xα=

∈ =Ţ ĺ with 0jα > , 1

1n

jj

α=

=ĺ and ( ),i j ix S x∈ , for all

____1,j n= .

Case 1. If ix F∈ , then for each ____1,j n= , ( ) ( ), coi j i ix A x P x∈ ∩ and therefore

( ) ( )coi i ix A x B x∈ ⊆ and ( )coi ix P x∈that is

( ) ( ) ( )coi i i ix B x P x T x∈ ∩ =

7

Case 2. If ix G∈ , then for each ____1,j n= , ( ) ( ),i j i ix S x A x∈ = and hence

( ) ( )coi i ix A x B x∈ ⊆ .

So, ( )i ix T x∈ .Now let us prove that the condition “1)” of Corollary 3 holds, for coK

instead of X that is ( ) 1co int :X i i i iK S y y K−= ∈U .

But, for each i iy K∈ , we have:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( )( )11 1 1coi i i i i i i i i iS y A y P y F A y G−− − −= ∩ ∩ ∩Č (I)

Indeed, if ( )1i ix S y−∈ then ( )i iy S x∈ and hence

( ) ( )coi i iy A x P x∈ ∩ , if ix F∈

or ( )i iy A x∈ , if ix G∈ .Then ,

( )1i ix A y−∈ and ( ) ( )1co i ix P y−∈ and ix F∈

or ( )1i ix A y−∈ and ix G∈ ,

hence the equality (I) is valid.But ( ) ( ) ( )1 1co i i i iP y P y− −Ę , hence, from (I) we obtain:

( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( )( )1 1 1 1i i i i i i i i i iS y A y P y F A y G− − − −∩ ∩ ∩Ę Č =

= ( ) ( )( ) ( )( )1 1 1i i i i i i iA y P y A y G− − −∩ ∩Č =

= ( ) ( )( )1 1i i i i iA y P y G− −∩ Č (II)

Now, if cox K∈ , then from the hypothesis “(3)”, it follows that there exists i iy K∈ such that

( ) ( )( )( )( )

( )II

1 1 1int inti i i i i i ix A y P y G S y− − −∈ ∩ ⊆Č

Hence,( ) 1int :i i i ix S y y K−∈ ∈U .

Finally, we remark that the condition “2)” of Corollary 3 holds for coK instead of X , that is for each i I∈ , there exists a nonempty compact convex subset iC of

iX such that ( ) 1co \ int :i i i iK K S y y C−⊆ ∈U

(Indeed, we apply our hypothesis “(3)”, putting coi iC K= . Note that co iK is compact, according, for example to [C],Theorem 2, p.113 ).

Then, we can apply Corollary 3, obtaining the existence of an element cox K∈% such that ( )i ix T x∈% % , for each i I∈ , hence:

ix F∈% and ( ) ( )coi i ix B x P x∈ ∩% % %

8

or ix G∈% and ( )i ix B x∈% % .

But from the hypothesis “(4)”, ( )coi ix P xĎ% % , for each ( )i ix x X= ∈% % . Then it

follows that ( )i ix B x∈% % and ix G∈% , that is ( ) ( )i iA x P x∩ = Ć% % .

The following result, an equilibrium theorem for a qualitative game, is actually a consequence of our Theorem 4.

Theorem 5. Let ( ),i i i IX P

∈Γ = a qualitative game and K a nonempty compact

convex set in ii I

X X∈

= Ő such that:

1) iX is a nonempty convex subset of a Hausdorff topological vector space and

ii I

K K∈

= Ő , where iK is a nonempty compact convex subset of iX ;

2) ( )( ) 1int :X i i i i iK P y G y K−⊆ ∈ČU , where ( ) :i iG x X P x= ∈ = Ć ;

3) for each ( )i i Ix X

∈∈ , ( )coi ix P xĎ .

Then, Γ has a maximal element in K (an equilibrium point), that is, there exists x K∈% such that ( )iP x = Ć% , for each i I∈ .

Proof. For each i I∈ , we define the constraint multimaps , : 2 iXi iA B X → by

( ) ( )i i iA x B x K= = , for all x X∈ .

Therefore, for each i I∈ and i iy K∈ , ( )1i iA y X− = (for each x X∈ ,

( )1i ix A y−∈ because ( )i i iy A x K∈ = ).

Therefore, the conditions “(2)” and “(3)” of Theorem 4 are fulfilled. (Indeed, for example, “2)” of Theorem 5 implies “(2)” of Theorem 4, because

( )( ) 1int :X i i i i iK P y G y K−⊆ ∈ =Č ( )( )( ) 1int :i i i i iX P y G y K−∩ ∈Č

= ( ) ( )( )( ) 1 1int :i i i i i i iA y P y G y K− −∩ ∈Č .

We can apply Theorem 4, finding x K∈% such that for each i I∈ , ( )i i ix B x K∈ =% % (obviously, because ~

x K∈ )and

( ) ( ) ( )i i i iK P x A x P x∩ = ∩ = Ć% % % .

But : 2 iXiP K → .If x K∈% is such that ( )iP x ⊆% iK , then ( )1

i ix P y−Ď% , for each

i iy K∈ and according the hypothesis “2)”, it follows that ( )iP x = Ć% .

If x K∈% is such that ( )i iP x K⊆% , then ( ) ( )i i iK P x P x= ∩ =Ć % % .

Hence, certainly, ( )iP x = Ć% .

Therefore, x K∈% is a maximal point of the game ( ),i i i IX P

∈ .

9

References

[AY] Ansari, Q.H. and Yao, J.C., A fixed point theorem and its applications to a system of variational inequalities. Bull. Austral. Math. Soc., 59, (1999), 433-442.

[DPV] Dăneţ, R-M., Popovici, I-M. and Voicu, F., Some Applications of a Collectively Fixed Point Theorem for multimaps. Carpathian J.Math.-to appear.

[LYAL] Lin, L.- J., Yu, Z.- T., Ansari, Q.H. and Lai, L.P. Fixed Point and Maximal Element Theorems with applications to Abstract Economies and Minimax Inequalities. J.Math.Anal.Appl., 284(2003), 656-671.

[T] Tychonoff, A., Ein Fixpunktsatz. Math. Ann., 111, (1935), 767-776.

[C] Cristescu, R. Notions of Linear Functional Analysis. Publishing House of Romanian Academy, Bucharest, 1998-in Romanian.

10

Eco-Managers in the Knowledge-Based Economy. Characteristics of the Romanian Eco-Managers

Preparator drd. Nistor CristinaMaritime University of ConstantaTel: 0726.903.396; E-mail:[email protected]

Abstract: In the context of the knowledge-based economy, there appears a new manager

profile because of the changes of a new geologic era: the „Eco-manager”. In this study there are

presented the features of this new manager type and there are analyzed the national „eco-managers”

through the perspective of the activity of management of waste, ecological team-building and the

development of the corporate responsibility strategies within the Romanian business environment.

1. Economic context: the new geologic age

The human being passed in a new age 200 years ago, without realizing that. The British

geologists consider that we passed from Holocene age that lasted 10000 years to anthropoge era. In

2002 Paul Crutzen suggested for the first time that people left Holocene because of the global mark

that it was left upon the environment. That phenomenon represents an implication of the passing to

the new economy time based on knowledge so that the urbanization increased ten times in the last

century and the knowledge revolution determined indirectly the behavior modification regarding the

human’s consumption. Crutzen’s opinion is that after a few generations the human being will run out of

fossil resources, resources that have been generated in hundred millions years. Jan Zalasiewicz and

Mark Williams, researchers at Leicester University in Great Britain consider that the industrialization

changed completely the Earth geologic characteristics. These structural modifications have a huge

impact upon the economic activity of the enterprises and they request a new type of managers and

eco-managers that should be flexible order to adapt to the new environmental conditions and to

protect the existent resources.

2. A new type of economy and management

In the frame of an economy based on knowledge a new manager type can be identified and it

refers to the complexity of human – environment relation. It is also about being able of making long

term decisions within this context. The new type of manager of the new economy is called

ecomanager and ecomanagers’ main feature is the one of making decisions according to principles of

long lasting concept and in the same time identifying the modalities of economic development taking

into account the environment protection.

Ecomanagers have as specific targets to fit the environment information with the enterprise

problems, the environment legislation harmony, the authorization integrated by the environment, the

implementation of management systems as EMAS – European System of Environment Management

and Audit and ISO 14001 – International Standard of Environment management, the carriage of

ecomanagement decisions regarding the usage of ecologic packing, ecologic products production and

their utilization in production, the environment projects financing, providing technologies friendly to the

environment and the development of the knowledge regarding those technologies utilization.

Generally speaking, ecomanagers have a proactive attitude in front of their production activity

approaching system, services and even commerce in concordance with the long lasting development

principles.

Untill recently the main managers’ concern was to get benefits it doesn’t matter the means of

effects upon the environment.

Therefore there have been provided technologies that offer indeed a good productivity but

against the environment, there have been built factories, enterprises and working halls that do not

respect the norms of environment protection, in the rural area there have been made deforestations in

order to extend the arable ground, so on.. Long lasting development concept has in its view the effects

awareness that decisions and management strategies have upon the environment. All those will have

negative effects upon the next generations, so in order not to destroy the nature new solutions of

economic activities should be found and applied.

These methods refer to the reduction of the resources consumption, to their protection and

recycling, environment protection against pollution, the ISO standards carriage and maybe one of the

most important ones: changing the mentality of the managers and their employees.

Ecomanagers, in their activity, put limits to the utilization of pesticides, insecticides and other

chemical materials, waste materials resulted from technical processes and air polluting substances.

They put maximum limits to the energy consumption in the working area and they recommend

employees to strictly reduce the power, thermal or water consumption. These measures, approaches

have as effects not only the environment protection but also company costs reducing a fact that may

influence the income level.

Ecomanagers recycle paper, glass, Freon, aluminum, metal or many other elements and

they form groups of waste materials in order to eliminate them. They take into account the pre-

recycling possibility, an activity that produces or uses recyclable or reusable packing.

Ecomanagers and waste management. The implementation of Der Grune Punkt system in Romania

Ecomanagers are the managers that develop in their organizations implementation

methodologies for the waste management procedures.

The waste management refers to collection activities, transportation, waste treating,

recovering and elimination. The activity organization concerning the administration, control of wastes

is the obligation of the economic agent that generates them, respectively, ecomanager’s obligation.

The wastes generation is the consequence of any industrial or commercial activity, and the

wastes problem in Romania must be approached consciously, taking into account that we should

maintain permanently the quality of the natural environment, consumers’ health and economic agents.

The waste management is ruled through an local, autochthnous legislation harmonized with European

Union Directives.

In Romania many ecomanagers took the option of introducing in their enterprises DER

GRUNE PUNKT System (The Green Point) that takes in its view selective collection wastes platforms

where special boxes for paper, plastic material and domestic wastes are placed. Ecomanagers take

action in accordance with European Legislation (norm 01/12/EC).

In accordance with those ones, the companies that ar in the packing market must rich a

recycle level of 55% and a valorization of 60%. The other local managers must be aware that if they

don’t make special measures in order to achieve these targets, they will be obliged to pay contribution

of 1Rol/ kilo to the Environment Fund.

In 2003 the company Eco-Rom was settled by a group of ecomanagers, packing producers.

This company is trying to promote an efficient and long lasting solution for the packing administration

process, similar to the ones in France (Eco-Emballages), Belgium (Fost Plus), Austria (ARA) and

Germany (Duales System Deutchland) affiliated to ”Der Grüne Punkt” System.

The above mentioned company puts at the disposal of the economic agents that bring into

the market packs, packed products or similar goods, a system organized by an activity management of

utilization, valorization and recycling of packing wastes Der Grune Punk, offering consultancy and

assuring services for almost 700 economic agents in Romania.

Der Grune Punkt system emblem/ stamp can be noticed on Eco-Rom customers’ products

and it shows that that company pays for the packs and wastes utilization and recycling.

Eco-Rom Ambalaje undertakes, through a contract, the economic agents’ responsibility of

organizing the valorization and recycling activity for the packs wastes and they also report the

authorities if they fulfilled their targets.

The founders are enterprises like Argus S.A., Chipita Romania S.R.L., Coca-Cola HBC

Romania S.R.L., Heineken S.A., Mars Romania S.R.L., Romaqua Group S.A., Tetra Pack S.A., Titan

S.A., Unilever South Central Europe S.R.L. and other ones and the organization is still open to the

other ones that want join it, to the ones that have the obligation of achieving the valorization and

recycling targets.

4. Ecomanagers and employees: ecological team building

Ecomanagers have as their main target the resources protection and that’s why they avoid

developing their activity in ecological, esthetical areas. They organize ecological team buildings with a

double purpose: working relation improvement and cohesion, unity increase between employees, but

also an ecological involvement. Groups of managers and employees plant trees, collect wastes in rural

or urban areas.

The company EcoXtrem Teambuilding has an innovative view regarding the team building

process. They are looking for an original modality of performing team building and they organized

many events with different teams at different development and cohesion levels.

5. Ecomnanagers and social responsibility (CSR) in Romania

Many foreign companies with branches in Romania make ecomanagement decisions that

sustain the organization of social responsibility activities.

I’ll give you some examples of a few companies in Romania that I believe they are really led

by ecomanagers. So we could see some models of ecomanagement actions that might be useful for

the traditional managers in Romania in order to make them respond successfully to the modifications

of economic or natural environment and also to the customers’ expectations and requests, requests

that are in accordance with European Norms and legislation.

Motorola involved in more than 300 projects that approach lots of local community problems.

The projects cover both the environment protection problem and education or social ones.

Apa Nova is a member of number 1 worldwide water services company Veolia Eau, a

specialist in the water service administration and sewerage system for public collectivities and

economic agents. It’s the concessionaire, the dealer of public services for water supply and sewerage

system in Bucharest.

The main field activity of the company is the water resources administration, water treating

and distribution to the population and economic agents and water exhausting. This organization

developed in 2007 a project called “We care about the environment” a project that support The Nature

Network 2000 in Romania, a preliminary condition for Romania integration in European Union.

They also celebrate yearly, together with other water consumers the International Water Day

and the International Environment Day. In these circumstances they develop campaigns that urge,

stimulate the Romanian citizens to take attitude regarding the environment protection.

HeidelbergCement is in Romania since 1998 and they produce cement, concrete and

aggregates, through Carpatcement Holding, Carpat Beton, and Carpat Agregate. All these 3 divisions

of HeidelbergCement use advanced technologies and they want to promote higher quality standards.

Carpatcement Holding makes investments in alternative combustibles and technologies

friendly to the environment. Heidelberg Cement is an active member of the International Business

Council for Long Lasting Development, consequently, Carpatcement Holding Representatives sustain

that the environment protection represents an absolute priority.

Carpatcement Holding has the highest European standards, having also ISO 14001. As a

result of the top technology investments, dust emissions have been reduced with 99% in comparison

with the moment in which they were purchased. The cement factory from Deva was the first one in

Romania which obtained the accreditation for the quality integrated management system and

environment protection, in accordance with the requests of ISO 9001/2000 and ISO 14001/1996.

In the same field, Lafarge Romania enclosed in 2006, for 3 years, a partnership with the non-

governmental organization WWF for the program Danube-Carpathians Romania. This partnership

represents a continuation commitment for the program of pollution reducing system and nature

preservation through the restoration of the exploited areas.

Through this partnership many preservation and natural restoration actions may take place in

the totally destroyed area. Lafarge representatives wish to transmit the image of a company that really

wants to change the mentality regarding the environment importance. Lafarge Romania takes part

actively too in the national program of corporative social responsibility “Millions of people, millions of

trees”, of which purpose is the planting of young trees and another plants in the areas indicated by the

local communities and administration centers, For ex, in Brasov. This program is sponsored by the

local environment centers.

Dacia Group Renault brought the factory from Pitesti to a high quality level in accordance

with the norms for environment protection and ISO 14001.

Conclusions

The Romanian companies must take into account the ecomanagement structures led by

ecomanagers, and that should be done not only because of the European Norms or internal legislation

but also for the impacts that they might have upon the next generations. In the attitude of traditional

managers in Romania we should see an obvious concern regarding the environment protection. Those

activities might have the following effects:

- charges and company costs decrease, so an increased income and profit;

- the development of a responsible attitude perceived by consumers and community so that any

company shall be obliged to fulfill the social responsibilities and activities in the designated

areas.

Bibliografie:1. Done, P., UE ne obligă la colectarea selectivă a deşeurilor, Ziarul de Bacău nr. 18 (1697) din 28 mai

2007

2. ×××, Rezumatul proiectului EcoMANAGER, Asociaţia pentru Dezvoltare Durabilă Slatina, site http://

www.adds.ro/ecomanager.html

3. ×××, Istoric şi obiective, Eco-Rom Ambalaje S.A., site http://www.ecoromambalaje.ro/despre.php

Badicioiu, A., Am intrat într-o nouă epocă geologică, articol Cotidianul ediţia 30 ianuarie 2008 , rubrica

Future

4. ×××, http://www.responsabilitatesociala.ro/stiri-csr/angajatii-motorola-romania-au-sarbatorit-prin-

voluntariat-ziua-globala-in-serviciul-comunitatii.html (16 octombrie 2007)

5. ×××, http://www.ecologistics.ro/noutati.html

http://www.cotidianul.ro/index.php?id=17397&art=42183&cHash=1e24891c4c

http://www.ecoromambalaje.ro/despre.php

http://www.adds.ro/ecomanager.html

http://www.adds.ro/ecomanager.html

NEW ECONOMICS

The Statistic Analysis of the World Resources and the Oil Exploitation During

1996-2005

Lect.univ. dr. Anca Cristea Lect.univ. dr. Tatiana. Dosescu

Lect. univ. dr. Emilia Gogu „Dimitrie Cantemir” University

Bucharest România.

It’s widely known that any economic or social analyses of each country cannot be made without taking into account the oil production and consumption, its evolution tendencies or its various prices in the world market.

The oil resources are spread unequal on Terra, but they are increasing. In 2006 the oil stocks were estimated at 1293 mld barrels by Oil and Gas Journal, 15

mld more barils than in 2005, an increase of 1%. In Iran the oil resources are supposed to have been increased most, with 5%.(from 125,8

mld. barrels in 2005 to 132,5 mld. barrels in 2006). Increases of 4,9 mld. barrels (25%) have been noticed (in comparison with 2006) in Saudi Arabia, 2,5 mld. barrels (2%) in Kuwait and 2,5 mld. barrels (3%) in Venezuela

Decreases of the present resources have been recorded in Mexico (1,7 mld. barrels), in Norway (cu 0,8 mld. barrels), USA (0,5 mld. barrels) and Great Britain (0,5 mld. barrels).

You can see in the below table the oil stocks spread worldwide in 2005.

Tabll 1.

Area Oil stocks (mld. barrels)

stocks Structure %

Middle East 743 57.5North America 213 16.5Central and South America

1038.0

Africa 103 8.0Eurasia 79 6.1Asia 36 2.8Europa 15 1.2Total 1292 100.0

Source – Oil&Gas Journal, vol. 103, nr 47 (dec 2005)

The areas are presented in a decreasing order and you can easily notice that Middle East,

in 2005, owned more than half of the world stocks (57,5%) followed by North, Central and South America (26,5%), and the smallest one was in Asia (2,8%) and Europe (1,2%).

Those aspects brought to life a lot of conflicts all over the world, areas with certain

problems, oil price increases, another products and service price increases. Furthermore the dependency relations between some countries and the shorter or longer variation of the oil prices have started to be obvious. In order to illustrate better the facts mentioned above, please, look at the bellow graphic:

1

Structura rezervele mondiale existente pe regiuni geografice 2005 %

58%16%

8%

8%6% 3%1%

Orientul Mijlociu America de NordAmerica Centrala şi de Sud Africa Eurasia Asia Europa

Figura 1 In order to have an accurate image regarding the worldwide oil stocks, we’ll take into

discuss the first 20 countries (see table 2)Table 2.

Total worldwide oil stocks in 2005 and the first 20 countries

Country Oil resources (mld. barrels)

Structure/ countries

%1. Saudi Arabia 264,3 20,462. Canada 178,8 13,843. Iran 132,5 10,264. Iraq 115 8,905. Kuwait 101,5 7,866. UAE 97,8 7,577. Venezuela 79,7 6,178. Russia 60 4,649. Libya 39,1 3,0310. Nigeria 35,9 2,7811. SUA 21,4 1,6612. China 18,3 1,4213. Qatar 15,2 1,1814. Mexico 12,9 1,0015. Algeria 11,4 0,8816. Brazil 11,2 0,8717. Kazakhstan 9 0,7018. Norway 7,7 0,6019. Azerbaijan 7 0,5420. India 5,8 0,4521. The other countries 68,1 5,27

Total 1292,6 100,00Source – Oil&Gas Journal, vol. 103, nr 47 (dec 2005)

The first place is occupied by Saudi Arabia having 20,46% from the total quantity of the world stocks. Saudi Arabia is followed by Canada 13,84%, on the third place Iran is placed

2

(10,26%), and afterwards the share becomes smaller and smaller, India being on the twentieth place with 0,45%.

It is remarkable the fact that except of the mentioned countries, all the other ones own only 5, 27% from the world stocks.

Structura re ze rve lor mondiale e xis te nte în prime le 20 de tari in 2005

13,8

10,3

8,9

7,9

7,6

6,24,63,02,81,71,41,21,00,90,90,70,60,50,45,3

20,4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1

Restul tarilor lumiiIndiaAzerbaijanNorvegiaKazahstanBraziliaAlgeriaMexicoQatarChinaSUANigeriaLibiaRusiaVenezuelaUAEKuwaitIraqIranCanadaArabia Saudita

Figura 2

From the above analyze, made in Table 3 we can notice that Saudi Arabia, Canada and

Iran own almost half of the total stocks of the 20 countries that have been put into discuss (47,01%) and 44,55% from the world stocks. Iran, Iraqi, Kuwait UAE and Venezuela own 32,18% from those 20 countries and 22,75% from the world total; Russia, Lebanon and USA own 12,77% from those 20 countries and 12,10% from the world total, China, Qatar, Mexico, Algeria and Brazil own 5,63% and respectively 5,34%; Kazakhstan, Norway, Azerbaijan and India own only 2,41% and 2,28% from the world total.

Table 3.

The level of oil stock indifferent groups of countries Countries grouped in accordance with the oil

stock

Country

Number of

countries

Oil stocks (mld. barili)

Structura %

5-9 Kazakhstan, NorwayAzerbaijan, India

429,5 2,41

10-20 China, Qatar, Mexico 5 69,0 5,63

3

Algeria, Brazil20-60 Russia, Lebanon,

Nigeria, SUA4 156,4

12,7760-120 Iraq, Kuwait, UAE,

Venezuela4 394,0

32,18120-265 Saudi Arabia, Canada,

Iran3 575,6

47,01Total 20 1224,5 100,00

After we could see a table regarding the total oil stocks in 2005 and in the first 20 countries, we will shortly review the daily oil production between 1996 and 2005 in some certain geographical area.

Table 4

daily oil production between 1996 and 2005 in some certain geographical area.

(1000 barrels/day)Year North

America Latin

America East

Europe West

EuropeMiddle

EastAfrica Asia

PacificWorld Total

1996 7865,8 8148 6930,8 6181,1 19012,3 6419,4 7025,6 615831997 7865,7 8476,2 7093 6202,2 19603,7 6589,8 7123,1 62593,71998 7679,4 9467,4 7083,3 6109,1 21115,6 6705 7049,9 65209,71999 7227,1 9122,9 7212 6176,9 20283,2 6351,8 7109,1 634832000 7213,1 9316,5 7624,8 6287,5 21415,4 6771,1 7251,5 65879,72001 7178,8 9327,4 8243,4 6033,6 20776,6 6620,9 7211,5 65392,22002 7191,3 9491,2 9036,5 5949,6 18649,1 6449 7279,7 64046,42003 7140,1 9573,2 9953,6 5626,7 20439 7273,3 7274,3 67283,22004 6823,9 9967,6 10733,9 5372,9 22001,7 8347,9 7330,3 70578,22005 6480 10206,5 11098,1 4904,4 22783,6 8856,7 7433,5 71762,9I 05/96

% 82,38 125,26 160,13 79,35 119,84 137,97 105,81 116,53

∆ 05/96 -1385,8 2058,5 4167,3 -1276,7 3771,3 2437,3 407,9 10179,9

From the above table we could ascertain the presence of a variation degree that is constant between the geographical areas from a year to another. On the whole, in this period of time, the world daily production increased with 16,63%, and that means an absolute increase of 10179,9% thousand barrels/day. Taking into discuss the geographical areas there are signs, evidences for 2005/1996 and mainly, they are more than one for : East Europe (160,13%); Africa (137,97%); Latin America (125,26%); Middle East (119,84%); Asia Pacific (105,81%) and sub-units: North America (82,38%); West Europe (79,35%).

All those tendencies towards evolution and increase can be found in the significant alterations or mutations in accordance with the geographical areas (see table 5 ). There are some insignificant and law variations but the Middle East, more or less is on the first place during that period of time, in the frame of the mentioned series: (between 29,12% year 2002 and 32,51% 2000, and the West Europe is on the last place (between 6,83% and10,04% in 1996. It’s very interesting to notice the fact that this structure rating may be associated with the on-under unit evolution ratings .

Table 5

4

Yearly structure of the oil production in accordance with geographical ares between1996-2005

Year North America

Latin America

East Europe

West Europe

Middle East

Africa Asia Pacific

Total worldwide

1996 12.77 13.23 11.25 10.04 30.87 10.42 11.41 1001997 12.49 13.46 11.27 9.85 31.14 10.47 11.31 1001998 11.78 14.52 10.86 9.37 32.38 10.28 10.81 1001999 11.38 14.37 11.36 9.73 31.95 10.01 11.20 1002000 10.95 14.14 11.57 9.54 32.51 10.28 11.01 1002001 10.98 14.26 12.61 9.23 31.77 10.12 11.03 1002002 11.23 14.82 14.11 9.29 29.12 10.07 11.37 1002003 10.61 14.23 14.79 8.36 30.38 10.81 10.81 1002004 9.67 14.12 15.21 7.61 31.17 11.83 10.39 1002005 9.03 14.22 15.46 6.83 31.75 12.34 10.36 100

12,8

13,2

11,3

10,0

30,9

10,4

11,4

12,5

13,5

11,3

9,9

31,1

10,5

11,3

11,8

14,5

10,9

9,4

32,4

10,3

10,8

11,4

14,4

11,4

9,7

32,0

10,0

11,2

10,9

14,1

11,6

9,5

32,5

10,3

11,0

11,0

14,3

12,6

9,2

31,8

10,1

11,0

11,2

14,8

14,1

9,3

29,1

10,1

11,4

10,6

14,2

14,8

8,4

30,4

10,8

10,8

9,7

14,1

15,2

7,6

31,2

11,8

10,4

9,0

14,2

15,5

6,8

31,7

12,3

10,4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Structura anuala a producţiei de petrol pe regiuni geografice în perioada 1996-2005 %

Asia P acific

Africa

Orient ul Mijlociu

Europa de Vest

Europa de Est

Am erica Lat ina

Am erica de Nord

Figure 3

The evolution of the oil production in accordance with the geographical areas between

1997-2005, in comparison with 1996

Year North America

Latin America

East Europe

West Europe

Middle East

Africa Asia Pacific

Total worldwideT

1997 100.0 104.0 102.3 100.3 103.1 102.7 101.4 102.21998 97.6 116.2 102.2 98.8 111.1 104.4 100.3 105.9

5

1999 91.9 112.0 104.1 99.9 106.7 98.9 101.2 103.12000 91.7 114.3 110.0 101.7 112.6 105.5 103.2 107.02001 91.3 114.5 118.9 97.6 109.3 103.1 102.6 106.22002 91.4 116.5 130.4 96.3 98.1 100.5 103.6 104.02003 90.8 117.5 143.6 91.0 107.5 113.3 103.5 109.32004 86.8 122.3 154.9 86.9 115.7 130.0 104.3 114.62005 82.4 125.3 160.1 79.3 119.8 138.0 105.8 116.5

Dinamica producţiei de petrol mondiale în perioada 1997-2005 fata de 1996%

102.2

105.9

103.1

107.0 106.2104.0

109.3

114.6116.5

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Figure 4

To draw a conclusion regarding the oil stocks and exploitations there is a high concentration degree in 7 countries that are able to ensure over 50 % from the world production and that is why the majority of the countries in the geographical areas are dependent on the oil import. Also our country, Romania, is in this situation because of its economy that is highly dependent on the offer-request fluctuations in the frame of the oil world market.

6

The role of expected and perceived inflation in the dynamic of inflationImplications on the cost of living1

Dr. Elena PelinescuDrd. Petre Caraiani

Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academydrd. Andrei Silviu Dospinescu

Center for Industry and Services Economics, Romanian Academy

The expected inflation plays a key role both in the macroeconomic dynamics, and the

financial markets, and within the different economic policies. For example, as the central banks

started to adopt the inflation targeting (IT, hereafter) regime, the measuring and forecasting of

inflation has become an essential issue in the process of the implementation of monetary policy.

Also, at the level of different social policies, the importance of expected inflation comes from the

necessity of computing in a correct way both the cost of living and the correlations between the

different social measures and the expected inflation.

During the last ten years, the debate on the official inflation and the perceived inflation

was centered on the difference in the perceived inflation by consumers and the official inflation.

The debate tried to answer the important problems regarding the efficiency of the official

indicators that measure the inflation. These debates were sustained by the results obtained,

which illustrated the growth in the gap between the official inflation measured by the CPI and the

perceived inflation as measured by the surveys of the European Commission (see European

Central Bank (2002a, 2002b, 2003 şi 2005), European Commission (2004), National Bank of

Belgium (2002) and Deutsche Bundesbank (2004)).

Although the problem of the gap was ample debated within the European Union, this

problem was less debated in Romania. Discussions were focused on the analysis of the methods

to measure official inflation and on the ability of the CPI to measure the cost of living in a correct

way. In this sense the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) computed for 2000 the monthly inflation

rates using different indices (Lasspeyres, Paasche, Fisher). The results illustrated the fact that

the inflation computed as the cost of living is higher than the official inflation.

The relevance of the gap between the perceived inflation and the official inflation is

illustrated by Paolo Del Giovane şi Roberto Sabbatini (2005) which revealed a series of elements

which confirm the importance of this gap. The gap affects the capacity of the consumers to

correctly identify the prices of economic goods which leads to a decrease of the efficiency of

allocating the goods, it influences the expectations with respect to the future dynamic of prices

and can distort the decisions regarding the prices and wages, it affects the credibility of the

1 The paper is a result of the research in the Romanian Academy Grant 2007-2008, Inflation and the cost of living – Statistical and econometrical approaches

1

monetary policies, and in the cases of the countries that adopted the Euro, it also affects the

public acceptance of the currency and the confidence in its stability.

Previous contributions regarding the expected and perceived inflation comparative with

the official inflation were done by Pelinescu and Dospinescu. Pelinescu and Dospinescu (2006)

analyzed the differences between the perceived and official inflation. They showed that if the

perceived inflation is an approximation of the cost of living, then there is a tendency over over-

perception of inflation.

The present study continues the previous studies, and it treats the importance of the

expected and perceived inflation in the dynamic of aggregate inflation and the implication on the

cost of living.

1. The inflation measured by the CPI, expected inflation, perceived inflation and the cost of living. Theoretical Observations

The CPI, the index of the consumer prices officially computed, reveals the changes of the

consumer prices based on a consumption basket in which the weights of the goods in the basket

are corresponding to the real weights in the consumption expenditures of the population.

The computed index of prices is, usually, a Laspeyres in which the prices in the current

and base period are weighted with the weights from the base period. This method has its own

limitations which were theorized, and revealed and numerous studies which a significant impact,

like those of Boskin Report (1996), Schultze şi Mackie Report (2002), Bryan şi Cecchetti (1993),

Nordhaus (1998). The fore mentioned authors revealed limits in the construction of the index of

consumption prices and measuring errors which are registered due to this limit.

Beyond these measurement errors which are related to the way the price indices are

constructed, we deal with mis-measurements which have deeper causes which are related to the

differences between the mathematical and statistical constructions of indices and the process of

perceptions of prices and consumptions. These differences are subtler and more difficult to solve.

For example, the prices indices officially computed consider the changes of prices in a symmetric

way, in the sense that the positive and negative deviations from the base prices are treated

differently. However there are some questions related to the way the consumers perceive

inflation, as it is possible that prices fallings are not perceived as the prices risings are perceived.

For these reasons, an index of the inflation perception is symmetrical.

2

The expected inflation is measured using the surveys realized at the level of samples

by households and tries to quantity the expectations regarding the future dynamic of inflation by

economic agents. For the EU member countries, the main source of current information is the

European Commission survey at the consumer level. The survey addresses questions related to

inflation, unemployment, the income growth, etc.

As for the dynamic of inflation, the survey adresses two types of questions, one which is

forward looking, related to the expected inflation, and a backward looking question, both

questions containing six possible qualitative answers:

The backward looking inflation: „How do you think the CPI developed during the last

twelve months” has as possible answers the following: 1. It increased more. 2. It increased

moderately 3. It increased slightly 4. It stayed at the same level. 5. It decreased 6. I don’t know”

The forward looking question refers to the expectation of the respondent with respect to

the dynamic of inflation in the next 12 months, as compared to the previous 12 months. The

possibly answers are six: 1. They will increase faster. 2. They will increase at the same rate 3.

They will remain at the same level 5. They will decrease 6. I don’t know

This survey is done each month, and it studies the dynamic of inflation given by HICP,

the harmonic index of consumption prices.

The perceived inflation reflects the perception of the consumers with respect to the past

dynamic of prices. The computation of the index of perception of inflation is based on the survey

program applied at the level of European Union (the Joint harmonized EU program of business

and consumer surveys).

Within the consumers ‘ confidence indicators, the backward looking questions (Q5) and

(Q6) quantity the perception of the consumers with respect to the past and future price changes.

The perception indicator reflects the impact of the prices modifications on consumers. In this

respect, the indicator is influenced by psychological factors. The consumers perceive more acute

the prices modifications of the goods and services bought more often or those which have a

higher impact on their consumer basket. Researchers suggest even a stronger hypothesizes

indicating a fundamental difference between CPI and the perception indicator. For example

Kahneman (1979) identifies a cognitive bias of the consumer namely the tendency to perceive

more acute the losses then the wins, even if those two are of the same magnitude. In this context

the consumers have an aversion to lost. At the same time the perception may be affected by an

isolation effect, namely the consumers perceive the modification of prices separately without

taking into account the connection between their modifications. The consumers are not rigorously

analyzing all the changes in prices. In this respect, the literature on price modification is

numerous see for example Del Giovanne şi Sabbatini (2005), Fluch şi Stix (2005), Brachinger

(2005), Dziuda şi Mastrobuoni (2005). The concept of perception errors is a relative one. It can be

understood in the sense that the consumer tend to misspercepive. We think the focus should not

3

be on the missperception but on the fundamental differences in constructing the indicators, we

have matemathical and statistical instruments in the case of the consumer price index and

psihologycal mechanisms in the case of the inflation perception indicator.

In the analysis of the cost of living indicator there are debates focusing on the differences

between this indicator and the consumer price index. Recent studies analyzing the case of

developed countries showed that the consumer price index tends to overestimate inflation and

that it is higher then the cost of living indicator. The differences come from two fundamental

sources: the differences in the economic phenomenon reflected by the indicator and the

differences in the method of calculation. In conformance with the definition proposed at the

International Conference of the Labor Statistics, November 19872, the consumers’ price index

measures “the evolution of the level of prices of goods and services bought to be consumed”. The

cost of living indicator measures “the level of the consumers’ utility, the rate of the minimum cost

necesary in order to achieve a certain living standard “3, thus the indicator has a built in relation

between two structuraly different goods and services baskets4. In Romania the consumer price

index measures “the evolution of the goods bought and of the prices of services used by the

population between a certain period (current period) and a past period (base period)”5. From the

definition of the consumer price index it results that if the consumer behaviour remains

unchanged, then the substitution elasticity between two products is zero and the level of this

indicator reflects the true cost of living.

The studies of Menser şi Mc. Donald (1988), Aizcorbe şi Jackman(1993), in United States

suggest that the consumer price indicator calculated using Laspeyres index is 0,2 procentual

higher then the indicator reflecting the cost of living. The papers do not identify the source of the

differences, namely if the differences comes from the price modifications or from modification in

the consumer basket. More recent studies for example Gordon (1995), Boskin et all (1995), şi

Diewert (1995) suggested that the difference are higher 1% annualy in the United States, a much

higher level then the one calculated by Wynne şi Sigalla (1994), Lebow, Roberts şi Stockton

(1994), Pakes (1995). A general picture of the magnitudine of these effects 6 in the United States

and in the transition countries can be found in Koen şi Masi (1997). Their analyisis is made on

annual data and focus on the corelation between different goods and services included in the

consumer basket. The results suggest that the correlation coefficients for the transition countries

are in the band 0,7 and 0,9 and ocazionaly for some good 0,4; in comparance in the United

2Dr. Filofteia Panduru, Indicele preţurilor de consum, opţiuni metodologice, lucrare prezentată în cadrul Seminarului Onicescu, 6 septembrie 2002, Institutul Naţional de Statistică, p1 3Jan Hanousek şi Randal K. Filer, Evaluating Imperfections and Biases in Price Index during Transition, BCE, 2000, p.44 Dr. Filofteia Panduru, Indicele preţurilor de consum, opţiuni metodologice, lucrare prezentată în cadrul Seminarului Onicescu, 6 septembrie 2002, Institutul Naţional de Statistică, p1 5 Ibidem, p.36 Pentru ţările în tranziţie dimensiunea abaterilor se regăseşte şi în studiile asupra inflaţiei realizate de Brada, King şi Kahan (2000), Filer şi Hanousek (2000) şi Duchene şi Gross (1994)

4

States the value converge to 0.99. For Romania our computations for the period January 1994-

September 2002 indicates a varation of the coefficient in the band 0,6 and 0,95 and ocasionally

values under 0,1 for rent and termic energy; 0,2 for fruits; 0,3 for oil; 0,4 for CFR tarifs. These

values are much lower then the group with a coefficient of 0,954 for food goods, 0,941 for non-

food goods and 0,872 for services.

Kornai (1992) highlighted a specific factor in the transition coutries, namley the

unsatisfied demand of the population which in it turn trigered an increase of prices after

liberalization, generating a preasure in the direction of the increase in production. In these cases

the Laspeyres index underevaluates the true increase in the cost of living, the intensity of the

undervaluation variates from country to country and from period to period depending on the price

liberalization strategy and the intensity of reforms. In this context, the analyses suggest that in the

periods when the perception of inflation is higher then the statistical inflation indicators then this

indicates a perception of a cost of living higher then the one suggested by the evolution of

inflation. In this context, the expected inflation will in it’s turn register higher values then the

official measurements of price modifications.

2. Methods of measuring of the inflation expectations, perceived inflation and cost of living

One of the most used methods to quantify the surveys data, for the qualitative answers

with respect to the future dynamic of inflation, is the probabilistic approach.

Theil (1952) constructed one of the first methods to quantify the expectations regarding

inflation using the probabilistic approach. He succeeded to build a more rigorous method than

that based on the balance statistics.

Lyziak (2003, p. 11) underlined the fact that there are two fundamental elements in the

probabilistic method, namely:

1. Each individual has a probability function over the expected changes in prices.

This function has a determining role in the questions from the survey;

2. It is assumed that if the expected price change falls in a zero-centered

interval, namely a (-s, +s) interval, the respondents will report that prices will

remain the same.

Two of the most used methods to quantify the expectations of the individuals are the

adjusted method of Carlson and Parkin (1975), and the uniform method, from which we present

only the first.

We follow here the presentation of Lyziak (2003, p. 11). It is assumed that „a” stands for

the percentage of individuals that expect the prices to grow faster, „b” stand for the respondents

5

that expect the prices to grow with the same speed, as a percentage from total respondents. We

use „c” to denote the percentage of those who expect that prices will increase slower inflation, „d”

those who expect a constant inflation and „e” those respondents who expect that prices will

decrease.

We use πe+12 for the expected rate of inflation in the next 12 months. We assume that this

variable is normally distributed, with parameters m for mean, and σ2 for variance.

The adjusted method of Carlson and Parkin implies that the interval centered on zero is

endogenized.

Lyziak (2003) showed that the system can be written as:

( ) ( )sFsPa e +−=+>= + 0012 1 πππ (1)

( ) ( ) ( )sFsFssPb e −−+=+<<−= + 000120 πππππ (2)

( ) ( ) ( )tFsFstPc e −−=−<<= + 0012 πππ (3)

( ) ( ) ( )tFtFttPd e −−=<<−= + 12π (4)

( ) ( )tFtPe e −=−<= + 12π (5)

The system can be rewritten by using the normalization relations, see Lyziak (2003) for

details:

−=

σmkNzkF )( (6)

After the system is rewritten using the normalization equation, the system can be easily

solved. The solution is given by the following equations:

( ))(

0

BADCDC

m+−+

+=

π(7)

)(2 0

BADC +−+−

=π

σ (8)

( ))(

0

BADCAB

s+−+

−=

π(9)

( ))(

0

BADCCD

t+−+

−=

π(10)

Where the variables A, B, C and D are given by: A=Nz-1(1-a), B=Nz-1(1-a-b), C=Nz-1 (1-a-b-c), iar

D=Nz-1(e).

The data for perceived and expected inflation were obtained from the Joint Harmonized EU

Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. The survey permits us to obtain qualitative

6

data. The survey uses as a center value the formulation rise slightly. The choice for the central

value of the scale is interesting taking into account that the scales usually use neutral formulation

as a center data. The formulation suggests that we have “a built in compensation” for the

aversion to lost effect identified by Kahneman (1979).

The data for perceived and expected inflation are not compatible with the CPI data. In order to

obtain compatible data there can be used a number of methodologies. We are going to present

two methodologies.

The first methodology implies a simple “rescaling” of the survey data by dividing the

original series by the standard deviation of survey data, on one hand, and multiplying them by the

standard deviation of inflation, on the other:

)()(

pit

it

itpit

seBse

B

π

π =(1)

where πpit represents our (transformed) measure of perceived inflation, Bit denotes the

original balance statistic from the survey, and se(Bit) and se(πpit) stand respectively for the

standard deviation of the balance statistic and the officially measured inflation (HICP or national

CPI).

The second method is based on a linear regression where the endogen variable is represented

by the annual variation of CPI and the exogenous variable is represented by perceived and

expected inflation.

The transformation of the qualitative data in quantitative data heavily depends on the method

used. The objective of the methods is a rescaling of the data so as to make them compatible with

CPI. The first method ensures the consistent with CPI by linking the qualitative data to CPI using

standard deviation. The relation between the standard deviation of the two series compensates

for the differences in the level of the two series but the connection is not strong enough. The

second method utilizes OLS, which minimizes the differences between the IPC series and the

series for perceived inflation. The quantitative perceived inflation series obtain is based on the

forecast of IPC. Thus it anchors more strongly the perceived inflation series to IPC.

The analysis of the cost of living suggest that the best indicators are the superlative

indicators Fischer and Törnquist-Theil. This indicators are batter then the Laspeare index

because of the statistical properties as reversibility and the small impact of the asimetry of the

distribution.

7

Fischer Index:

IF = ∑∑

∑∑=

10

11

00

01 *qpqp

qpqp

II PL ;

Törnquist-Theil Index :

ITT =

∑

∑

=

=n

iit

n

iitit

qp

qp

100

1

The computation made by Jan Hanousek şi Randal K. Filer7 for the Czech Republic shows that

for the period 1993-1999, the Laspeyres index was higher than the Paasche index with 9,97%

annually, and with 4,75% ( except 1994 for which there weren’t made any computations) then

the Fischer index ( used to measure the cost living)

On the entire period 1991-1999, the Laspeyres index indicates a cumulative increase of prices of

236,5%, superior to 207,3% indicated by the Paasche index and 221,5% indicated by the Fischer

index8.

In the case of Romania the differences between inflation measured by CPI and the cost

of living indicator raised some questions regarding the accuracy of the inflation measurements.

The computation of the specialists from the National Institute of Statistics indicates for the year

2000 that the cumulative inflation starting from December 1999, base on the Laspeyres index

was 40,1% (published data), on the Paasche index of 40,92% and on the Fischer index of

41,09%. It can be seen that the relation between the three indexes is inversed for Romania

comparing with the Czech Republic and with the countries with a stable market economy in

general. The explanation resides on the modification in the structure of the consumer basket

which operated in the same direction with the modification of prices and on the fluctuations of

some relative prices which generates in its term asymmetries at the level of groups of products

and at the level of the indicators.

At the same time we must look at the consumption behavior of households. The increase

of the prices of goods bought more often by consumer increase in their turn the level of inflation

as a cost of living the level being higher than the one of other indexes. The modification of the

structure of consumption spending in the period 1995-2007 shows: a decrease with 8,1% of the

7 Jan Hanousek şi Randal K. Filer, Evaluating Imperfections and Biases in Price Index during Transition, BCE, 2000, p.138 Potrivit autorilor J.Hanousek şi R. K. Filer diferenţele pot fi mai mari datorită faptului că pentru anul 1994 au presupus că nu au fost abateri între cei doi indici dată fiind revizuirea ponderilor din indicele Laspeyres în acest an.

8

weight of the spending for the food goods, an increase of 5,5% for the services and 2,63% for

non-food goods as can be seen in Figure 1.

The increases in prices due to the modification of utilities prices up to the level registered

in other UE countries and the liberalization of the prices of food goods had a considerable impact

on the modification of the structure of the consumer basket before the Romanian integration in

2007 and after. For example beginning with January 2007 due to important modification in the

budget for income and spending, the computation of CPI uses the weights from the structure of

the average spending of households for the year 2005.

Figure 1

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Modificarea structurii coşului de consum în perioada 1995-2007

Alimentare Nealimentare Servicii

3. Conclusions

The objective of the paper was to analyze the concept of expected and perceived

inflation, the cost of living and the impact of the first two concepts on the dynamic of inflation.

The analysis suggests some interesting conclusions:

1. There are fundamental differences in constructing the consumer price index and the inflation

perception indicator; we have mathematical and statistical instruments in the case of the

consumer price index and psychological mechanisms in the case of the inflation perception

indicator.

9

2. In calculating perceived inflation based on the Consumer Surveys we have to take into account

“a built in compensation” found in this surveys, namely we have “a built in compensation” for the

aversion to lost effect.

3. The regression method used to construct a quantitative series for perceived inflation anchors

more strongly the perceived inflation series to CPI

4. The differences between the cost of living indicator and CPI usually reflect the modifications in

the real economy and there are not only due to differences in the methodology of construction.

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13

INTERNET, A KEY FACTOR OF THE NEW ECONOMY WORLDWIDEProf. univ. dr. Popescu Gheorghe – Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

ABSTRACTInternet represents, according to experts, the most stunning technological of the history. Along with the

unparalleled development of the Internet and with a remarkable focus on information and fast

information access, traditional companies have faced difficult questions, such as: “How may Internet

controlled speed and amplitude? How may Internet generate the increase of the business efficiency?

May Internet help to increase and develop the activity of a company? How may be approached the issue

regarding the companies’ competitiveness given the conditions of the New Economy?”

The present work aims at put knowledge in terms of basic resources of the New Economy, able to

trigger an extremely fast evolution of the Internet, to define and clarify notions regarding signs, data and

information, so frequently used in regular language, to show the information classification and the

significance of the implicit information compare with explicit information, to present the main features of

the digital economy and to highlight, in the end, the Internet’s role on global level in terms of increase of

competitiveness upon the level of the New Economy.

It is deemed very useful delimitation and profound knowledge of the notions the New Economy operates

with and, thus, the significance regarding the presentation of the Internet as component of the digital

economy and “engine of the New Economy” is considered a key and reference factor given the present

international environment.

Key words: Internet, New Economy, business efficiency, knowledge, economic growth, digital economy

1

1. Knowledge as continuous and vital process within the New EconomyKnowledge is seen as a continuous process able to differentiate individuals, by means of motivation and

knowledge capacity. The motivation we have to know more or less is tightly connected to the effort we

have to make to increase the knowledge capacity, which effort comprises intellectual, financial and time

resources. A highly significant notion is the knowledge cost which depends on the social, economic and

politic context where an individual is at a certain point and on the society’s interest for knowledge.

On individual level, there is a paradox of knowledge. It addresses our attempt to represent the infinity of

the universe where we live in a finite knowledge system. The biological and psychological limitation of

the human brain hinders it to identically and entirely reflect on our universe and, thus, knowledge

becomes a relative cognitive dynamic process. Metaphorically, Andrei Pleşu has enclosed this

knowledge paradox in an elegant wording:” But we think intermittently and differently: we think with a

limited device the infinity of each thought.” (Pleşu, 2003, p. 82). People think based on patterns, which

are formed in time by means of education, family, school and universities, society or religious cults. Such

individual patterns are shaped and depend on social, cultural, politic and economic patterns existing in a

certain geographical area and in a given historic age.

The knowledge dynamics becomes crucial for any precise understanding of the way organizations

function. Therefore, the knowledge management may determine the competitiveness of an economic

agent. As any individual, the organization has a certain memory, a certain capacity to learn and a specific

knowledge generation and processing. Some authors even speak about the organizations’ cognitive

systems, which are not mere collections or linear compilations of the individuals’ knowledge. Even if there

is a certain dynamics of the employees’ number in a company, by means of their employment or

departure, the company has the capacity to preserve its database, behavior, norms and values (Baumard,

2001).

2. Signs, data and information – concept clarification and specific aspects In regular, the concepts of data, information and knowledge are used most times equivalently and inter-

changeably. With respect to knowledge management, they are not equivalent in terms of semantics. The

difference between them is relative and it triggers the difficulty to define them.

Signs are unitary graphic representations, invented by humans to communicate. For instance, the

mathematical figures and symbols are signs we use frequently in our daily life. Separately, these signs

don’t tell anything. They gain meaning when they are complied together and immersed in a semantic

context.

Data are compilations of signs, which represent different characteristics of events or processes.

Therefore, data are processed signs. For instance, 2 and 0 are two signs with no signification. If we

compile under the form of 20 and put them in a semantic context, we have obtained data about the

event whose context we have considered. For instance, we could consider a table with the evolution of

temperature in a city during a certain month of the year. In this context, 20 means the value of the

temperature of a certain day. All the values listed under the respective table represent data. Them, in

themselves, do not carry meaning, but lend the meaning of the context considered. For instance, in a

table with the ages of youth, 20 means the age of a person and the value in that table will represent

characteristic data to evaluate the ages of the respective youth.

2

Information is data with meaning. For instance, 20°C represents information regarding the temperature

in a certain day and place and 20 years old represents the age of a certain person. Thus, the data have

been put in a certain semantic context and have become information. In other words, information is

processed data. Moreover, to inform means to inform, respectively to put in a form, to structure a certain

meaning by processing the data, which are compiled signs.

Information is a concept having various semantic valences and construal, which captured the attention

of various researchers, mainly after the publication of the book written by Claude E. Shannon, A

mathematical theory of communication in 1948 (Guiaşu, 1968). This explains by means of the attempt of

the American author to develop a metric to measure the information quantity conveyed by means of a

communication channel. According to CE Shannon, information must be a measurable and abstract

quantity. Its value must not depend on the information type as well as length and temperature is physical

condition measures with values which do not depend on the object subjected to measurement.

3. Knowledge and its classification in implicit and explicit knowledgeKnowledge is information processed in order to understand the events taking place in our environment. Our

entire biological and social existence depends, mainly, on the knowledge about natural, social, politic,

economic, scientific and technologic environment we live in. The knowledge’s processing can be performed on

different levels of complexity and abstraction, from scientific theories to applicative knowledge necessary for

daily existence. In an organization, the processing of data into information and of information into knowledge is

made both on the individual level of employees and on the level of work teams. Organizational skills occur by

implementing knowledge as intangible resources and their processing capabilities. Properly developed, these

skills may lead to the achievement of the competitive advantage (Probst, Raub, Romhardt, 2000). To define knowledge is yet another goal of science due to its complexity. Knowledge is a peculiar

combination between conscious and subconscious, rational and irrational, direct life experience and

experience gained by learning. The child touching with his/her own hand a hot object got burnt and

learned by direct experience the danger related to hot objects. He/she has not yet an explanation for this

fact, but learned to avoid touching hot objects in the future. Later, when he learned about

thermodynamics and heat transfer, he would have understood rationally the danger related to hot

objects and would avoid touching them.

Knowledge is classified as implicit knowledge and explicit knowledge taking express ability as

classification criterion.

Nonaka and Takeuchi underline the significance of the implicit dimension in knowledge generation,

especially in the oriental culture, by considering the existential unit between body and (Nonaka, Takeuchi,

1995). If the western philosophy focuses on the delimitation of the physiological processes in the human

body from the cognitive ones, the oriental philosophy focuses on the unity and integrality of such processes,

namely on the significance of the sensory knowledge process for the development of the cognitive

processes. From this, the attention paid by Japanese companies to the development and capitalization of

the knowledge’s implicit dimension of their employees. The wisdom of each individual is, in this context, an

outcome of all the existential processes specific to his/her personality.

The explicit dimension of knowledge addresses its capacity to be communicated by means of written and

oral language. It is the dimension which accompanies the individual and organization communication

3

process, a process so familiar to us that we most times live under the impression that it is the only possible

process for knowledge communication. However, we underline that, in terms of quality and quantity,

knowledge in the explicit field is only a small part of the entire knowledge a person may acquire, respectively

may generate during their entire life.

Explicit knowledge is learned in school and society; it allows the formation of the culture of a people and

its capitalization by means of communicating knowledge and wisdom to each generation. Our universities

are organizations specialized in communicating knowledge, but they have developed teaching technologies

which process explicit knowledge. It is the knowledge allowing the development of science and technology,

namely the society’s progress. Computer technology operates with explicit knowledge and, may be, that’s

why western companies have focused in its processing and use for accomplishing the competitive

advantage. (Fuller, 2002).

The knowledge management, especially the one developed by Japanese companies, centers the

human capital and thus both implicit and explicit knowledge is considered. Although it may seem curious,

it means to consider both the rational and irrational, the conscious and unconscious, the explicit and

emotional intelligence. For Japanese, creating new knowledge exceeds the explicit stage and that’s why

the convergence between the implicit and explicit dimensions is very important.

4. Strategic knowledge significance Recent research on strategic management and performance management underline the knowledge’s

significance in achieving the competitive advantage. Knowledge is the most valuable intangible resources

an organization may have and has already become the most important production factor, after entire ages

were dominated by land, labor and capital as production factors. A survey performed by the renowned

consultancy company „McKinsey" has clearly proved that the success of large companies is based on

performing knowledge management. If a success metric is considered based on market capitalization, it

may be highlighted that, for large companies, the most important contributions belongs to intangible

resources and not to the tangible ones.

5. Digital economyDigital economy is based on Internet and has as actors - communities of manufacturers, merchants,

consumers or electronically transacted services.

5.1. Digital economy and new economy – definitions and characteristics The outcome of the implementation of this new economy addresses the creation of new markets and the

expansion of the existing ones, the occurrence of new behavior patterns for manufacturers and

consumers, the transformation of the patterns within the traditional economy.

Digital economy implies new laws, new currencies new mentalities and behaviors for manufacturers,

sellers and buyers, new distribution networks, etc. The digital economy concept has several synonyms: e-

economy, Internet economy, web-economy, virtual economy etc.

The “new economy” concept must not be associated directly and unilaterally with the digital economy.

The new economy is the concept which defines the role, weight and dynamics of the traditional and

digital economies given the increase and powerful influence of the latter.

As “real” economy, the digital one is based on market, which is transforming from a standard one into an

electronic one, based on information technology, having the following functions (similar with the regular

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ones): meeting between buyers and sellers; offer contents (features of the products offered by the seller,

agreement on various products); search for business partners (information about product and price,

auction organization, offer adjustment by the sellers according to buyers’ preferences); price discovery

(price assessment and comparison); transaction easement; logistics for supply of information, goods and

services to buyers); payment (payment transfer to seller); trust: credit system (reputation, online agents

for consumer protection, assessment agents); organizational infrastructure; legal frame (commercial

code, contract law, intellectual property protection, dispute settlement); regulations (regulations and

rules; monitoring, enactments).

The main particularity of the business fulfillment in a digital world is that the distribution processes are

based on information gathering, selection, processing and distribution. The chain of a digital business

starts with supply and demand and concludes with prices and competition. The main components of the digital economy are: digital products, consumers, sellers, company infrastructure, agents,

maintenance and support services, web designers.

5.2. Components of digital economy In order to classify digital economy, the main components can be classified (mentioned above) and

there can be other classification means based on the complexity and inter-dependence of the

companies acting in the digital economy. Such system developed by CISCO Systems and Texas

University, in their report from June, 2000 [www.internetindicators.com], identifies four components in a

hierarchic structure of the digital economy: Internet infrastructure; applications of the digital economy

infrastructure; agents; online transactions.

The identification of the digital economy components are based on this structuring manner and on

elements generating maximum incomes.

Other researchers [ www.idc.com ] structures structure digital economy on three components, joining the

last two components in a single class: Internet infrastructure (which represents the support for

transaction fulfillment); commercial infrastructure (which facilitates trading on Internet); online trade

(which represents the trade itself). In time, the components’ structure has changed and each stage of

the Internet evolution has coincided with the dominance of one of the levels mentioned. Thus, in the first

years of the Internet, investments were focused on technologies and services developing the

infrastructure, attracting users for online trade. At present, the dominance of the expenses not related to

technology are increasing, sales and marketing and web design gaining a significant role for the

improvement of the Internet environment and increase of the online trade. Several large companies,

such as Microsoft and IBM are playing various roles on different levels. This layering of the digital

economy allows an analysis of the company in terms of its level to enter the e-economy and the

possibilities to expand its activities to other architecture levels.

5.2.1. Internet Infrastructure– general presentationThis level comprises companies whose products and services help the creation and development of the

network infrastructure based on TCP/IP protocols. This class comprises telecommunication companies,

Internet providers, Internet infrastructure support companies, Internet access companies and

manufacturers if network equipment, computers, security products and services, etc.

The companies comprised in this level have become more powerful than those in other layers of the

5

http://www.internetindicators.com/

http://www.idc.com/

digital economy. The Internet infrastructure has become a huge industry on its own, larger than the

pharmaceutical industry, baking system and aircraft industry. Ensuring the spine of the digital economy,

infrastructure eases the increase of the companies from the other three levels. Several of the most

powerful of the companies in the Internet infrastructure operate in the other levels of the digital economy,

generating significant incomes in the electronic trade or ensuring products and services for the

application level. Within this level, there operate companies such as IBM, Dell, HP, Cisco, GlobalNet,

GSM, RDS, EasyNet etc.

5.2.2. Diversity of the applications of the digital economy infrastructure –a challenge of the New Economy This level comprises companies whose products and services allow the optimal use of the infrastructure

in order to fulfill electronic businesses. On this level, there are manufactured the software products

necessary for direct web transactions. Additionally to the manufactures of software necessary for web

transactions, the application level includes the consultancy and services companies which design, build

and maintain all the web sites, from portals to complete sites for electronic trade. The achievements of

the companies within this level are products and services which allow the optimal use of the

infrastructure for the fulfillment of online businesses: Internet trade applications; multimedia applications;

web developed software; search engine software; online training, web databases. As digital economy

and network infrastructure develop, it is expected for the development of applications (audio and video

technologies and other web applications) to expand significantly. On this level, there activates

companies such as Adobe, Macromedia, Borland, Genesys Software etc.

5.3. Features and particularities of digital economy The particularities of the digital economy are provided in a research performed by Texas University, the

Center for Research in Electronic Trade. The research has considered the structure on the four levels of

the digital economy with examples of the American achievements for 1998-2000. The research’s

findings have led to the delineation of the following definitive characteristics of the digital economy:

a). The level of the electronic transactions, out of which a significant preponderance is held by the

electronic trade, has noticed a spectacular development, unforeseen. Digital economy is

developing rapidly, an example being the American digital economy which developed with a

rate of approximately 174.5% from 1995 to 1998, compared with the average global rate (which

includes the American digital economy as well) of 3.8% in that period.

b). The dimension of the digital economy has become compatible with the traditional one only in a few

years from the implementation of WWW, already contending in size with traditional sectors such as

energy, vehicles and telecommunications. The average per employee in the digital economy is over

US 250,000, 65% higher than in the traditional economy.

c). The digital economy has become significant worldwide [http://www.idc.com], one of the first 20

economies in the world being the American digital economy. Although the overall incomes in

the digital economy are not strictly comparable with the IGP if the American one was (in terms

of overall income) “recouped” as nation, it would have the 18th position worldwide, after Swiss

and before Argentina.

d). The digital economy has significant impact regarding new jobs and related responsibilities,

6

http://www.idc.com/

remodeling labor market. Most worker classes (say, web designer, Internet advisor) did not

exist before 1994/1995 and most organizations have changed the work places’ structure to

adjust to new challenges and opportunities within digital economy. Over six million Americans

work in what we call high technology field and, as electronic businesses expand and traditional

businesses are depending more and more on the Internet, new jobs will be created and the

existing ones will be reformed.

e). The staff working in the infrastructure and application levels generates more than half of the

digital economy’s income. The incomes of these levels are higher than those of agents and

online transactions, which shows the crystallization condition of the digital economy and

suggest the need to increase rapidly the levels remained behind. Given that the overall

economic activity is heading toward the Internet – or TCP/IP networks, the levels of agents

and business will become more powerful. In parallel, there are developed the infrastructure

and application levels due to the Internet’s expansion worldwide and as organizations will

agree to built Intranet and Extranet networks.

f). Organizations within the infrastructure level have the highest income per employee. The Internet

infrastructure is the most lucrative of all the levels with the digital economy, many organizations

within the infrastructure being powerful and enjoying competence and significant savings. Although

they generate a high added value, organizations within the application level decrease their savings

because they don’t sell just software, but they spend on Internet assistance and web projects to

model their products according to each client. This issue is significantly acute for organizations

within the online transaction level. Moreover, organizations within the levels of agents and traders

have started to operate in the electronic environment recently and traditional organizations which

enter into online activities are not able, most times, to operate as accurately as the ones “born” on

the Internet.

g). Large companies supply digital economy. Although thousands of new organizations are

established within the digital economy, large companies continue to play a significant role. For

instance, the first 15 IT companies own a third of the jobs within this field.

h). Even if it is agreeable the image of an electronic world without agents, studies highlight that they

play a significant role regarding the establishment of digital economy. For instance, only fees

(which are lower than 10% of the value of a transaction) have represented important incomes for

certain classes of agents, such as tourist agencies and auction houses.

Understanding the characteristics of digital economy depends on knowing the relations products-costs-

quality, analyzed according to the following economic aspects:

The curve of the costs for tangible (traditional) products and services has a “U” shape because,

up to a certain point, as quantity increases, the cost decreases and then the two variables increase

simultaneously. For intangible (digital) products, the variable cost per unit is very law, almost fix,

compared to quantity. The cost per unit decreases as the quantity increases. The classification of

products and services in tangible and intangible has taken into account the possibility of their direct

examination (which situation suits traditional economy) or the impossibility of this process (situation

characteristic to digital economy).

7

The products/services connection becomes stronger in digital economy. Unlike the physical

products sold, plus technical services such as installation, repair, etc, the intangible products are

subject to update and development services (update, upgrade) which endorse daily update and

upgrade of initial parameters.

The link between purchase and rental is over-unitary in traditional economy while in digital

economy it tends towards a unitary or over-unitary value. This is due to the fact that tangible

products could hardly be partitioned, while intangible ones, for instance, software, are easily

partitioned among several users.

Given that digital economy costs are high, it becomes efficient when a “critic number” of buyers

and seller is “achieved”. In traditional economy, products and services may be efficient, regardless

of the number of buyers and sellers. In digital economy, the transaction attendees will increase

when television and personal computers will be equally spread worldwide.

Quality incertitude and the need to increase it are more considerable in digital economy. It

represents the consequence, on one hand, of the high prices which must be paid for intangible

products and, on the other hand, of the impossibility to “touch” and test the product directly, “at

work”. In digital economy, quality is tightly related to the brand, name of the manufacturer, thus new

digital companies hardly enter the market.

The prices’ nature is a lot more flexible in digital economy. Obviously, prices are important in any

economy because they determine the volume of the sales, market partition and profit. In digital

economy, products may be offered for discriminatory prices for different clients, according to

demographic aspects, preferences and past behaviors, etc. Online agents may allow actors to set

the desired product and price offered and then to correlated them in real time. Moreover, in digital

economy, the prices’ negotiation becomes real for expensive products as well;

There are two types of prices in digital economy: online and offline. While certain organizations

offer low prices for online products (for instance, Pacific Brokerage Service -www.tradepbs.com,

offers a 50% discount for online products), others (such as banks) maintain the same price or

charge a higher price (certain banks charge a higher fee for online payments than for offline ones;

another example in this respect is grocery shopwww.peapod.com , which offers online products for

a price significantly higher than in supermarket). This price diversity changes the micro-structure of

the consumer’s market, distribution channels and the force of the business concluded between

parties;

Within the new economy, potential winners and insolvents are easily differentiated and, in

general, there will survive organizations which move fast towards the electronic world. Traditional

manufacturers must automate and computerize manufacture, to include more electronic

components in their products, to appeal to cyber-marketing, to expand their market, using Internet

facilities, etc. In their turn, native organizations for digital economy must “humanize” their products,

to lower their prices, etc. It is envisaged that potential winners will be the suppliers of Internet

services, portal owners, electronic trade software companies, owners of private networks, average

manufacturers, interconnection equipment suppliers, advertising and target marketing agencies,

large traders, suppliers of payment systems, special and security infrastructures, online business

8

http://www.peapod.com/

companies, conventional retailers who use frequently online markets, market creators, etc. The

potential insolvents will be small whole sellers, brokers, regular sellers, manufacturers without

novelty elements, etc.

Bibliography:1. Baumard, Ph. (2001). „Tacit knowledge in organizations", Sage Publicaîions, London

2. Brătianu, C, Murakawa, H. (2004). Strategic thinking, Transactions of JWRI, Voi. 33, Nr.1, pp. 79-89,

University of Osaka

3. Fuller, S. (2002). Knowledge management foundations, Butterworth Heinemann, Boston, Massachusetts

4. Guiaşu, S. (1968). Aplicaţii ale teoriei informaţiei, Editura Academiei, Bucureşti

5. Nonaka, I., Takeuchi, H. (1995). The knowledge-creating company, Oxford University Press, New York

6. Pleşu, A. (2003). Jurnalul de la Tescani, Editura Humanitas, Bucureşti

7. Probst, G., Raub, S., Romhardt, K. (2000). Managing knowledge. Building blocks for success, John

Wiley and Sons, New York

8. European Commission (2005). „Commission launches five-year strategy to boost the digital

economy", Press release lp/05/643, Brussels, 1 June 2005

9. http://www.eu.int/information_society/eeurope/i2010/docs/launch/i2010_press_release_en.doc

10. European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (2004). European

knowledge society foresight: The Euforia project synthesis,

http://www.eurofound.eu,int/publications/files/EF0404EN.pdf

11. Information Society Commission (2005). Learning to innovate. Reperceiving the global information society,

http://www.isc.ie/downloads/34843_lnfoSoc.pdf

12. Lisbon European Council (2000). Presidency Conclusions, Lisbon European Council, 23-24 March

2000, http://ue. eu. int/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/ec/00100-r1. en0.htrn

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http://ue/


http://www.eu.int/information_society/eeurope/i2010/docs/launch/i2010_press_release_en.doc

KNOWLEDGE, A STRATEGIC ASSET ABLE TO ENCOURAGE ROMANIA’S COMPETITIVENESSDr. Popescu Veronica Adriana – Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

ABSTRACTAs concept-solution, the knowledge society represents the topic of a political, scientific, educational or

media speech, able to create, by its concepts and impact, a new social reality.

Information and knowledge regarded in their essence have always existed. The novelty is not the use

of knowledge, because mankind has always depended on this aspect. The novelty is that

Informational Society and Knowledge Society are capable to answer to the needs of the moment.

At present, the society’s conceptualization is recording a various range of approaches which, beyond a

prior skepticism, reflects a systematic preoccupation for the operation of the respective concept.

Thus, it is essential, on European level and on national level, to define the operation regarding the

knowledge and research-innovation in a more complex society. Defining and understanding various

actors actively involved in knowledge and the inter-connection between them within a consistent and

durable environment are considered more and more key-elements.

Considering knowledge as connected in different ways to the knowledge’s object and social practice,

the means to acquire knowledge and to make it institutional will make the comparative difference

between the strength of the new society typology experienced by each nation.

The preoccupations intended to make operational the informational society concept is mainly focused

on the development of characteristic technologies and their strategies; for a change, making operation

the concept of knowledge society involves, by excellence, a systemic refection procedure in order to

draft a visions necessary for a convergent action of the actions of the social actors involved.

The aforementioned aspects suggest the fact that the knowledge society represents a typical example

of dialectic concept, as the Romanian origin savant Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen defined together

with the aritmo-morphic concept. (Georgescu-Roegen, 1979).

The notion of knowledge society is, due to its dialectic nature, a concept-problem and, at the same

time, at concept-solution. As we can see, the competitive environment of the modern economic life

represents a challenge for all organizations. Success in this environment addresses creativity, innovation

and flexibility. Given the super-complexity environment triggered by the knowledge based economy and

society, the expansion and development of capabilities and competences within an organization by

learning is vital. The competent management of complexity and change represents real sources for the

competitive advantage sustainable on long term for the organizations knowledge based. That why we

consider knowledge as a strategic asset able to encourage Romania’s competitiveness.

Key words: knowledge society, informational society, competitiveness, creativity, innovation,

competences.

1

„The development of a strong knowledge based economy cannot be performed without ensuring a

high level of education, as the social cohesion cannot exist without tolerance and respect for other

cultures. Continuous learning does not consider only the formal education and training systems, but

the active citizen, social inclusion and personal development”.

Viviane Reding, The challenges of shaping Education and Cultural Policies, in Culture,

Cultural Rights and Education in an Enlarged Europe, The Enlarged Europe Forum, Bruges,

20 November 2000

1. Knowledge society – concept, evolution and perspectives by means of diversity on global level In the economy of the human society, the limited existence of the resources for covering the needs

trigger the rational, as genetic code to express the manifestation and appreciation of human

behaviors, on individual and social-institutional level.

The origins of the expression – knowledge society - (or knowledge based) could be identified in the

papers drafted in the 60s, independently by Fritz Machlup and Peter Drucker. The first one proposed the

term knowledge Industries (Machlup, 1962), and the second one - knowledge work and knowledge worker

(Drucker, 1969).

The competitive environment of the modern economic life represents a challenge for all organizations.

Success in this environment addresses creativity, innovation and flexibility. Given the super-complexity

environment triggered by the knowledge based economy and society, the expansion and development of

capabilities and competences within an organization by learning is vital. The competent management of

complexity and change represents real sources for the competitive advantage sustainable on long term for

the organizations knowledge based.

At present, the society’s conceptualization is recording a various range of approaches which, beyond a

prior skepticism, reflects a systematic preoccupation for the operation of the respective concept.

1.1. Notions of “information” and “knowledge” – delimitation of notions and clarification of basic differences The notion of “knowledge based society” is the center of EU policies. Politicians have built in this field

a consistent speech, but the differences regarding the construal and enforcement of the respective

policies are proving more and more certain epistemological confusions. Such confusions represent a

significant threat for the concept’ implementation and for the development of certain practices and

institutional structures which would not support the process.

Thus, it is essential, on European level and on national level, to define the operation regarding the

knowledge and research-innovation in a more complex society. Defining and understanding various

actors actively involved in knowledge and the inter-connection between them within a consistent and

durable environment are considered more and more key-elements.

Cook and Brown (1999) identified the need to differentiate between information and knowledge.

Thus, information represents a stable system, which can be formalized and transported and, as effect,

it can be accumulated and owned. Regardless of the fact that such information is explicit or implicit,

2

owned collectively or individually, different research focused on it, are based on the “epistemology of

owned elements”.

Knowledge seen as continuous process of creating information is associated with action and is

understood as part of the practical activity, based on epistemological effort defined as “epistemology

of action”. Studies focused on this topic also name it “knowledge in practice” (Lave & Wenger, 1991),

„learning based on experiment" (Bruner, Salling, Olesen) or „distributive cognition" (Hutchins, 1996).

Cook and Brown suggest the reduction of the difference between the two types of epistemology, be

considering the information as instrument triggering knowledge within different activities. They refer to

certain types of information, their heuristic value and validity given the different types of activities.

Considering knowledge as connected in different ways to the knowledge’s object and social practice,

the means to acquire knowledge and to make it institutional will make the comparative difference

between the strength of the new society typology experienced by each nation.

1.2. The evolution of the concept of knowledge society (or knowledge based) Generally, the stands characterized by skepticism regarding the knowledge society concept originate

in the fact that the human society has always been knowledge based and the new brought by

contemporary society only refers to the electronic support of the communication process and how

information is handled. Moreover, the use of synonyms of information and knowledge – by ignoring

their different positions in the epistemic hierarchy – either renders relative the distinction between the

informational society and the knowledge society or leads to the adoption of hybrid wordings – with

questionable epistemological validity – such as “ knowledge and information society”.

However, a closer look could show that the distinction mentioned is relevant from the perspective of

the operational valences of the two concepts. Thus, the preoccupations intended to make operational

the informational society concept is mainly focused on the development of characteristic technologies

and their strategies; for a change, making operation the concept of knowledge society involves, by

excellence, a systemic refection procedure in order to draft a visions necessary for a convergent

action of the actions of the social actors involved.

The aforementioned aspects suggest the fact that the knowledge society represents a typical example

of dialectic concept, as the Romanian origin savant Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen defined together

with the aritmo-morphic concept. (Georgescu-Roegen, 1979).

The notion of knowledge society is, due to its dialectic nature, a concept-problem and, at the same

time, at concept-solution.

The concept-problem nature refers to the fact that the reality mentioned by the notion of knowledge

society is a significantly growing one, under crystallization, thus, hardly to comprise it synchronically;

as the characteristics of this new type of society are found, on large scale, in the existence of more

and more human communities, its refection in epistemological plan, by means of the respective

concept, it is susceptible of permanent improvements and reconsiderations. Thus, the development of

the knowledge society is based on an orientation focused on a certain visions and not, as the case of

the informational society, on template-programs or guideline-programs, although such instruments

remain applicable for the specific actions of the social actors involved in this process.

3

As concept-solution, the knowledge society represents the topic of a political, scientific, educational or

media speech, able to create, by its concepts and impact, a new social reality. As Terhi Nokkala

(2004) mentions “terms becomes important because they represent forms of political rationality and

regimes of epistemological validity according to which certain activities are deemed to be legitimate or

not, they indicating, thus, which courses of action are the rational and logic ones. The speech’s power

resides in its ability to pre-shape a certain social reality starting from the terms defining it, making the

participants to represent it as such and acting accordingly”.

The notion of knowledge society justifies the registration of the idea representation procedure and the

one of action for its performance, on the coordinates of the systemic (constructivist) paradigm, as

defined by Le Moigne and Morin (1999).

The principles of systemic are highly general and allow, unlike the ones of the positivist paradigm, dominant

in the industrial age, a more profound understanding and, thus, a proper management of the problems

raised by globalization and complexity, characteristic to the contemporary society.

Not to proceed systemically regarding the knowledge society issue would have harmful consequences

socially and scientifically, determining the sever decrease of the efficiency of the collective and individual

action, but also the waste of resources.

The epistemological referential of systemic, which offers specific answers to the question “How do we

know?” has two complementary positions, namely the phenomenological one and the finalist one.

(Eriksson, 1997).

The phenomenological position endorses the status of knowledge as report between the knowing topic and

the reality subject to knowledge. This hypothesis involves:

- to assign a determinant and active role, not only a acknowledging one, to the knowing topic related to

the reality subject to knowledge;

- to approach knowledge as process and not as object – the information which is only the result of

such process; otherwise, the latter would be seen as stock, namely in a closed environment.

The finalist hypothesis of the constructivist paradigm focuses on the projective (purpose) nature of the

knowledge. The project undertaken by the knowing subject guides the “production” act of the new

knowledge and the way of assessing its validity; thus, from a constructivist perspective, the

knowledge’s validity resides not in the attribute of objective truth, impersonal and transient, as

positivism says, but it is expressed by vertical pertinence verified in specific action contexts based on

their enforcement.

According to the constructivist paradigm, there can be explained the current trend to pass from the

“normal science” to the “post-normal science”. (Funtowicz, Ravetz, 1993). The normal science drafts

new information within specialized disciplines and which are proper for solving small or medium

problem possibly highlighted in the conventional management; the post-normal science endorses the

integration of the information in complex, trans-disciplinary structures, useful for solving significant

problems, which could be identified in a systemic managerial procedure.

2. The resources of the knowledge society. “Value-human” close relation The real problem of the knowledge based society is meta-knowledge. The reason for this statement,

deems Prof. Dinu Marin, resides in the performance of an actions routine to avoid an entropic risk:

4

reinventing the wheel. Thus, the world must always come back to the need to phrase an asymptotic

answer to the question: how do we favor development using knowledge more and more?

The global society reduces humankind to the natural condition of depending on its own lasting

resource – innovative in terms of liberties – thinking, knowledge. In fact, it is a real come back of the

world to itself, noticed as its global stage of existence, where the Renascent attempts to focus the

society’s characteristics on value-human are revived.

Which makes that any generic concept, such as the knowledge society, to imply adherence, beyond

rational, as it happened with socialism and communism, is its quality to trigger conjectural

developments with ideological ambitions. The premises’ projection, beyond being subject to reporting

everything to possible bench-marks, with the exact knowledge of own strengths, fails in utopia. Not

few are the temptations to solve everything by globalization. This is not different from the way of

burdening excessively the communism with abilities - the true cause of its surprising failure.

As any other society projection, the knowledge society is voluntarily accredited with higher

expectations than it could satisfy. Even in the most perverted possible way, globalization is charged

with supra-normative functions regarding its ability to solve the problems of the pre-global world, such

as poverty, sub-development, etc.

Obviously, a trick less visible for novices is practiced: it is implemented the idea of the continuity of the

world’s ordering principle, the order imposed from the perspective of the stronger party, namely, as

Caragiale put it, something is changed, but the essence stays the same.

The knowledge society will be the expression of the human creativity marked by the rules of the living

systems (Prigogine, Stengers, 1997), and not of the functional systems with energy eaters’ ineptitude

or a top down reproducibility. In a direct way, the knowledge society is a lot more than instrumental,

even if World Wide Web, so, the knowledge society cannot be, as aforementioned, a new wonderful

world.

As the global society it substantiates, the knowledge society cannot be, respecting its essence, a

utopia, even if it mentions a sacrifice worthy ideal.

Avoiding the insinuating the concern for global is not only necessary, but it has to be possible by

making internal the specific of the society of knowledge. Even by complying with the limits of humanity

to be progressive by itself providing, as historically proved that nature – including the human one –

dost not make jumps.

3. The goals of the European Union regarding the implementation of the knowledge based economyThe competitive advantage in the knowledge based economy will not be limited to products or services,

but it will be determined by the ability of people and institutions to continuously acquire new abilities

and of the fastness in exploiting the cutting-edge information. Globalization, with its competitive

pressure, transforms the constructing requirements of the knowledge based society into an urgent

objective. In this context, the Meeting from Stockholm of the European Council has clearly reinforced

the goals stipulated in Lisbon, which must be respected and implemented. The conclusions from

Lisbon have clearly established the common strategic goal for all the countries of the European Union1.

5

Thus, there have been identified the most sensitive levers to be used by each country in order to

reach this objective goals. These are:

- to remodel the national educational system to ensure equal chances to acquire new abilities and

competences during the entire professional life;

- to influence employers to increase the level of competences, skills and abilities of the employees;

- to create a stimulating environment related to the innovation and development of the

entrepreneurship initiative;

- to update the government structures for the online age;

It is important to notice that the successful implementation of the knowledge based economy means

more than new competences, abilities and skills. Each employee must prove more entrepreneurship

initiative, both as employee and citizen. There are mainly endorsed business initiative, but are equally

supported and the development of creativity, innovation, flexibility, team-work and any form of discovery

arising from intellectual curiosity. More and more, individuals must be able to undertake responsibility

for their professional path. Given that employment throughout the active life will not be certitude, each

active person must identify the employment opportunities and to be come interested in acquiring the

competences necessary for permanent training.

4. The need to pass to the society of knowledgeThe society based on information and knowledge implies the intensive use of the information for all

activities and human existence, with significant economic and social impact.

4.1. The main characteristics of the knowledge society The new technologies of information and communication are used both on individual level and within

highly flexible organizations, arising from the independence of the human activity related to space and

time.

Thus, an accurate implementation of the knowledge society implies the convergence of three key-

elements: information technology, communication technology and multimedia production.

• Description of the knowledge society The fast development of the information and communication technology within the past years has had

an increasing impact upon society and global economy, highlighting fundamental changes of the

production and distribution patterns, trading conditions, employment and daily life. At the beginning of

the new millennium, global economy is experiencing the passage from a significantly industrial society

to a new set of rules – the society of knowledge, which leads to the occurrence of what is called the

new economy.

The reasons of the passage to the knowledge society are dictated by the powerful dynamic of the new

economy, where digital technologies render easier and cheaper the accessing, processing, storage and

communication of information. This huge volume of available information creates exploitation

opportunities by creating new products and service, by developing new activities and increasing the

employments. The new economy, characteristic to the society of knowledge, transforms digital

information in economic and social value, creating new industries, adjusting the existing ones and

profoundly affecting the life of all citizens. Also, the reasons of the passage to the knowledge society

reside in its characteristics, which are expressed from several perspectives, from global to individual:

6

- politically, the knowledge society is a democratic one;

- administratively, it offers development possibilities for business and public administration;

- socially, it offers people easy access to education by developing the informational and

communication infrastructure;

- legally, it adjusts the labor’s nature, creating conditions for the performance of activities specific to

the informational age;

- economically, it triggers the increase of the business potential and labor productivity;

- culturally, it is a society knowledge based, ensuring the recognition of the human values (tradition,

religion, inter-human relations, etc);

- individually, it allows the capitalization of intelligence with small investments;

• Change of the labor’s characteristicAnother reason for the passage to the knowledge society is the change of the labor and organizations’

nature, which develop together with the society and represents the main evolution mechanism. The

labor object is no longer dependent only on a certain field, work implying information, at the same

time. Thus, it is necessary to carry out activities such as collection, processing, memorizing,

adjustment, request and change of information.

4.2. The entrance in the “Age of Responsibility” triggered by the new knowledge society Amartya Sen deems that “people themselves must be responsible for the development and change of

the world they live in. You do not have to believe or disbelieve to accept this basic connection. As

people leaving together – broadly speaking – we cannot run from the thought that terrible events

around us are, in their essence, our problems. They are our responsibility – even though they are

others’ responsibility”. (Amartya Sen, 2004).

The transition to a New Society is as necessary as Amartya Sen says “development needs to fend off

major sources which lead to liberty privations: poverty as tyranny, low number of economic

opportunities and systemic social privation, neglect of public facilities and intolerance and over-

implication of the repressive governments (Amartya Sen, 2004). Despite of unprecedented increases

of the general wealth, the contemporary world denies the elemental liberties of a high number of

people, maybe of the most.

The new age we have to enter is one of a fecund concordance of the world’s contraries where we all

live a unique spiritual experience, based on the “balance between freedom and responsibility, property

and equity, pleasure and limitation; the connection between justice and love, rational and affective; the

alliance between science and morals; the accommodation of technique with nature (Enciclopedie de

Filosofie si Stiinte umane, Editura AII Educational, Bucuresti, 2004, p. 1039)

5. The „3I" of the knowledge society – brief presentation The „3I" of the knowledge society (Dragomirescu, 2001) symbolize the triad of the processes which

may be deemed significant for this society’s phenomenology, namely: innovation, learning and

partnership inter-activity. They are self implied and influenced and, understood as an organic whole,

highlight the essence of the new society (Drucker, 2001), having a special significance for the present

and future of Europe (Langer, 2000).

7

Within the examined triad, innovation – which, in this project, is considered to include both the

invention type outcomes and the innovation ones – address the generation and development

processes of the new ideas, while learning corresponds to the absorption of the information

communicated/transmitted by changes of mental and behavioral patterns, within the plan of effective

actions; as articulation factor, the partnership inter-action intervenes in the relations between the

actors – individual or collective – of the knowledge based activities within organizations, communities

and society. It can be concluded that the “31” are articulated in a “spiral” of knowledge – that dynamic

of generations of ideas and solutions, continuous and self-maintained, which fits in “virtuous circles”

processes of their generation, communication and use in action.

In the Europe of knowledge, the innovation issue is approached mainly from the perspective of the

relation between the national innovation potentials and the refection of the innovation in terms of

competition, both on the level of institutions and national economy; the innovation factor intervenes

explicitly in the patterns of policies regarding the performance of the economic convergence, both

between the groups of member states with different development levels and in the economy of the

European Union enlarged related to the other poles of development from the global economy. It is

worth mentioning the experience of Scandinavian countries regarding the innovation oriented policies.

Thus, the triple helix pattern adopted by VINNOVA, the Swedish agency for innovation, wants to offer,

based on incremental approaches, efficient solutions for issues regarding the drafting, communication

and use of new knowledge elements (Etzkowitz, 2002). The phrase chosen to name this pattern

represents suggestively the symbolic inter-action established between three actors, namely the ones

in the research field, business field and political filed. The first class comprises researchers (who are

busy using the knowledge elements they obtain or create) and professors (who begin their classes in

order to convey the new knowledge, preparing grounds to form advanced skills for graduates). The

second class comprises entrepreneurs, who are aware of the economic value of the new knowledge

elements, managers, who anticipate the market demands undertaking opportunities and risks for the

enforcement of the conceptual and technological solutions, and investors, who engage in new

projects, who wait for the consequences of the investments performed to obtain new knowledge

elements. The third class includes politicians, who allot public funds for research-development,

legislators, who influence the functioning conditions of companies, research centers and universities

and local public authorities, which facilitate the establishment of new companies and help to the

creation of an attractive life and work environment. (Filip, 2005).

The advance of the knowledge society triggers the assignment of an expended significance for the

innovation processes, in their various manifestation forms. In the industrial society, innovation was

seen as creation and application form, with a validated market success of the outcome of the creative

act, being suitable especially for technical-engineering sciences. Given the terms of the society of

knowledge, innovation, previously an exception creative event, it becomes a general rule in the

professionals’ behavior and in the dynamic of the performing organizations, a “large scale” procedure,

extended upon the non-technical areas.

A new approach, in the same context, addresses the relations between product innovation and

process innovation and how their articulation influences the positions of each country in the global

8

hierarchy regarding the performance of the national innovation systems; thus, the economy of the

European Union may be characterized as focused on the process innovation while the North-American

one – on the product innovation.

The modern partnership forms, cluster type, which comprise institutions, research centers, universities

and public administration institutions, are likely to stimulate the innovation associated with productivity

increases, which generate new employments, given the endogen economic increase. They

supplement the previous paradigms of the expended enterprise, virtual or “net-worked.” (Filip, Barbat,

1999).

The advance of the knowledge society grants new valences to the learning process, improving it in

terms of manifestations and implications.

Individual learning is present everywhere an organized human activity is performed; it arises from the

permanent confrontation between goals and means, expectations and outcomes, aspirations and

environmental conditions where the action is performed. In terms of its organizational and collective

dimensions, learning occurs naturally even only for the communication and present collaboration in

any community.

If in the pre-industrial and industrial societies, learning was an outcome derived from action, in the

knowledge society the focus is on programmed and permanent learning, both on individual and

organizational levels. In this respect, it is worth mentioning the goals of learning in the contemporary

society, provided in the preamble of the report „Learning - the treasure within", drafted for UNESCO:

„learn to know; learn to do; learn to be; learn to live in community.” (Delors, 1996).

The fast development of science and technology speeds the rhythm and proportion of the information

becoming obsolete; thus, the educational system is important to ensure the access of its beneficiaries

to information and, especially, to assist them in “learning to learn”.

A trend, deemed definitive for the knowledge society and provided in the programs of the European

Union (Commission of the European Communities, 2000), addresses speeding the learning process

and its expansion throughout the entire of the active life (life-long learning).

In the society of knowledge, the learning sources become various, combine themselves and influence

each other in personalized forms: institutional training, acquirement of personal experience, interaction

with counterparties and mentors, membership in professional communities, virtual environment

connections.

Organizational learning is a process which occurs by individual learning and by bringing new members

in a community, with their knowledge and skills. (Simon, 1991). Learning conditions the individual and

collective potential to innovate and to absorb the innovation’s outcomes and the “ability of an

organization to learn faster than its competitors may become its main competitive advantage.” (de

Geus, 1988). Thus, learning in contemporary organizations implies ensuring the interactive character

of this process, the systemic easement of its performance and the use of outcomes obtained.

The main factors favoring the creation of an organization based on learning are anchored in the

organizational culture, which must be knowledge based (Hauschild, Licht, Stein, 2001) and they

represent systems of values and related practices, which “fasten” learning in all its forms Nevis,

DiBella and Gould (1998) include the recognition of skills and professional credits, promotion of

9

transparency, stimulation of creativity and curiosity – as reverse of the self-sufficiency, promotion of

pluralism, support – of the decisional factors- of the learning initiatives and their animators, ensuring

resources and conditions favorable for the goal pursued.

The third “I” of the society of knowledge, partnership interactivity, reflects by its name, the type of

relation and interaction established between homologues, either individual or collective actors. It is

different from the transactional interactivity and hierarchic relations, exceeding their limits in terms of

cooperation valences which the attendees could activate interacting. Also, the partnership interaction

benefits from and highlights, on a high level, the facilities of the networks, distributed systems and

systems for assisting the group activities, representative for the infrastructure of the society of

knowledge. Thus, the learning enterprise concept proposed in the 90s is becoming more and more

important (Riis, Neergaard, 1994).

6. The issue regarding the knowledge society in Romania. European context reflections The expansion of the European Union is carried out in a tight inter-conditioning with the reform of

economy and its institutions and with the advance of the society of knowledge. It can be said that the

phrase “Europe of knowledge” synthesizes the essence of such major evolutions, different in meaning,

but convergent in meaning and horizon; it express a way of thinking and an undertaking to act for a

future based on aspirations and common values, partnership for the development of science,

technology and economy, the assessment of the European citizen status.

In 2006 there will be 12 years since the launching of the document named “Europe and global

informational society”, known as the “Bangemann Report”, as presentation of the role and contribution

of Martin Bangemann, the then-vice-president of the European Commission.(Bangemann et al., 1994).

This document drafted by 20 personalities of science, politics and business, was passed at the

meeting of the presidents and governors in Corfu and represented a first significant impulse towards

the awareness and European systematic action on large scale for the informational society.

In June, 2002, the European Council from Seville adopted the Action Plan „e-Europe 2005 – An

informational society for everybody" (Council of European Union, 2003). The deadline of the

enforcement of the Action Plan “e-Europe 2005” coincides with the review of the Strategy from Lisbon

where it was established the goal for the European Union to become, until 2010, “the most competitive

and dynamic economy knowledge based, able to support economic growth, with more and better

employments and a higher social cohesion” (Lisbon European Council, 2000). Starting from this

reviewed strategy (Commission of the European Communities, 2005 a), which focuses on the economic

growth and the superior use of manpower and the acknowledgement that in Europe; the informational

society has passed from the “testing-stage” to the “large expansion” one. The European Commission

has launched the “2010 Initiative (Commission of the European Communities, 2005 b), a five year

strategy intended to lead to the development of the Europe of knowledge based on the new TIC

generations.

Regarding Romania, it could be deemed that the progress to be registered in terms of knowledge

society would condition, directly, the rhythm and quality of its European accession, long and complex

process, engaging the efforts of the entire Romanian society.

Bibliography:

10

1. Amartya Sen, Dezvoltarea ca libertate, Editura Economica, Bucuresti, 2004, p. 345

2. Bangemann, M. et al. (1994). Europe and the Global Information Society, Reccommendations to the

European Council http://europa.eu.int/ISPO/docs/basics/docs/bangemann.pdf

3. Dinu, M. (2004). Globalizarea şi aproximările ei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

4. Delors, J. (1996). Learning. The Treasure Within, Report to UNESCO by the International

Commission on Education for the Twenty-first Century, UNESCO Publishing, Paris,

http://www.unesco.org/delors/delors_e.pdf

5. Dragomirescu, H. (2001), „Organizaţii bazate pe cunoaştere", în: F.G. Filip (coordonator), Societatea

informaţională - societatea cunoaşterii. Concepte, soluţii şi strategii pentru România, Editura Expert,

Bucureşti, pp. 425-443

6. Dragomirescu, H. (2004). „Riscuri asociate neutilizării activelor intangibile ca active economice

strategice", în: F.G. Filip, B. O Simionescu (coordonatori), Fenomene şi procese cu risc major la scară

naţională, Editura Academiei Române, Bucureşti, 2004, pp. 15-33

7. Drucker, P. (2001). „The Next Society; a survey of the near future". The Economist, November 3rd, 2001,

pp. 3-20, http://economist. com/surveys/displaystory. cfm?story_id=770819 Eriksson, D. (1997). „A

principal exposition of Jean-Louis Le Moigne's systemic theory", Cybemetics and Human Knowing,

4(2-3), pp. 35-77

8. Etzkowitz, H. (2002). „The Triple Helix of University - Industry - Government", Working Paper 2002-11,

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9. Filip, F.Gh., Bărbat, B. (1999). Informatica industrială. Noi paradigme şi aplicaţii, Editura Tehnică,

Bucureşti

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Business, an XIII, nr. 48 (585),"p. 4

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1,2001, pp. 75-81

14. Langer, J. (2000). „Enlarging Europe through science and education", Foresight2(<5), pp. 599-605

15. Le Moigne, J.-L., Morin, E. (1999), L'intelligence de la complexite, L'Harmattan, Paris

16. Loveridge, D., lan, M. (2004), European knowledge society foresight: the Euforia project synthesis

report, PREST, Manchester, http://www. eurofound. eu. int/publications/htmlfiles/ef0404.htm


18. Nevis, E., DiBella, A., Gould, J. (1998), „Understanding organizations as leaming systems", în: David

19. Pleşu, A. (2003). Jurnalul de la Tescani, Editura Humanitas, Bucureşti

20. Riis, J.O., Neergaard, C. (1994). „The leaming company: a new manufacturing paradigm", în:

J.K.H. Knudsen, P.A. Mac Conaill, J. Bastas (editors), Sharing CIM Solutions, IOS Press,

Amsterdam, pp. 94-102

11

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http://ue/



Changing and Organizational development in the New Economy

AUTHORS: PROF.UNIV.DR. ALEXANDRU TAŞNADI,

CONF.UNIV.DR. DIANA ANDREIA HRISTACHE, PREP. UNIV. DRD. SILVIA ELENA POPESCU

Summary

The problematic of the identification of the organizational changing, in the

context of the New Economy, is laying its print on the public image management. The

modernism of the civil society is mixing with the organizational modernism, express

through what we call in the synthetic way, the Corporative Communication.

From the corporative point of view, to communicate, signify, to develop at the

organizational level, the concept of Collective Competence. Simultaneous, the

assembly of the strategies that are considered the object of the organizational

efficiency growth will lead at its full functionality.

The organizational public image management involves a certain specific

change. The creation of a innovative environment, motivating and interactive. It is

called to develop the corporative competence of all modern companies.

The interactivity so called „organization – client – civil society”, cannot develop

without a dynamic communication and it is realized through the ways of media

segment. The organizational changing is a process of real involvement of human

resources. As so called „agents of change”, the employees, must develop „stellar

communication”, to assure the organizational feed-back.

As a conclusion, we can say with certitude, that the organizational

development is the main infrastructure of the corporative communication

development.

Finally, the public relations will lead through the reinforcement of the

organizational public image.

Key-words: New Economy, Public Image, Corporative Communication,

Organizational Changing.

The organizational environment suffers some significant changes under the

global communication influence. Nowadays the changing of the organizational culture

is a complex process continuously helped by the modifications that interfere with the

consumers’ preferences.

The public organizational image implies a veritable change personalization

and professionalism. First of all in order to develop the corporative competences of

the modern companies an innovational, motivational and interactive frame should be

built .

Nowadays the organizations are pretty preoccupied for getting, obtaining the

corporative performances sustained by the human resources management

stimulation.

That means we have to pay a special attention to the way in which the

persons are stimulated with rewards, leadership and the work that they are

performing and its environment.

The purpose is to develop some motivational processes and a certain working

environment that may enable the possibility of getting good results, the results that

the management itself expects.

The promotion and consolidation of the companies cultural changes

represent a long-term process, a pretty difficult one due to the fact that there is a

certain feel of safety created by faiths, traditions, experience that has as its main

purpose the achievement of a concordance between the individual perspectives and

the ones of the company itself.

The organization-client-civil society interactivity cannot be developed without

a dynamic organizational communication adjusted by a properly implementation of

the organizational change.

If an organizational change is needed we must take into account the

necessary time that allows us to apply that implementation. Specialists say that the

organizational change is a process made by certain strategies, politics and different

managerial practices and the new view will be created by these ones.

A good example might be the Japanese management, applied by Toyota. It

was first remarked in 50’ due to its innovative way of approaching the implemented

production in technology and afterwards it became a veritable competitor of the

traditional model applied by Ford.The reorganization of the production conditions

using the Japanese technique called ka-ban offers a viable alternative to the

organizational change. Presently, the organizational modernism mixes with the one

of the corporative communication that becomes “the working tool used in the

corporative management that is necessary when you wish to rich the management

operational targets.

The support of the organizational image and of the changes clearly is part of

the communication science, but in this situation the corporative communication must

be activated. It represents a new philosophy, a creative and emphatic philosophy of

the organizational life, a new way of approaching the modifications that may

anticipate the implementation and afterwards the development of new organizational

policies and strategies.

If the successes recorded by the Japanese companies have been considered

just as a result of the changes that interfered at an organizational level, nowadays,

the success attributes in business is given by the accent stressed on quality and

productivity.

The Japanese organizational change is a special one. It doesn’t generate, at least

from the point of view of the employees, the frustration feeling of the fear of loosing

the job. On the opposite, the Japanese production model is characterized by a higher

dependency degree and by the integration of some human resources practices

applied for the company business strategies, and as I said before the accent is

stressed on the employees’ safety concerning their job position , on their work and

their team work. The trump of the organizational change must be searched and found

in the dynamism and in the capacity of Japanese companies reaction in front of the

market requests and consumers’ preferences.

The development of a diversifying working structure through the total quality

management implementation requests the coordination of the productive activities in

all the functional departments.

The employees are not employed for their functional skills, but for their

knowledge regarding the products that are to be made and their quality. Therefore

the employment criteria stress upon the candidate’s working aptitudes and his/her

ability of learning and achieving new knowledge and multifunctional abilities.

The responsibility records are defined in general terms. On the job training –

Japanese production technology and total quality management stress on the

flexibility ant inter-functional activities that need a continuous and intensive training

process.

The total quality management implementation in the Japanese field implies

the usage of a “lean” production. This pattern is implemented in order to assure the

achievement of some coordination economy of the managerial functions, and the

success key to rich those high quality standards stays in sharing the information. It’s

also very important to develop the internal communication between the employees.

In Taira’s opinion the worker’s knowledge pass over the limit written in his

responsibilities record so that there it’s a considerable overlapping between the

knowledge of the workers that have different positions in the production hall.

Even if the results are promising the Japanese managerial pattern cannot be

implemented as such in an organization. The values system should be first adjusted

in accordance with the organizational culture. In the favor of the ones previously

mentioned we could make a comparison with the American managerial pattern

shown in the personnel policy.

The personnel policy in the American companies stimulates the development

of the functional skills that are necessary for the work requests and responsibilities.

Therefore the activity of a continuous knowledge improvement brings significant

changes that enable the extent of the human intellectual horizon and the

development of the working potential.

Even though we keep asking ourselves: what’s the advantage offered by the

Japanese human resources management application at the organizational level?

It consists in a stability that also implies a strong commitment in front of company, of

the job itself- personally, the employee is oriented towards changes and against

strikes or any other work conflict.

The result is simply a high level productivity that keeps increasing and a work

climate that allows the management to plan and implement changing plans of the

products and applied processes.

Specialists consider that those results are produced by the practices applied

in the human resources field that stress upon the company commitment in front of its

own employees. They have a safety state, a statute and material advantages and all

these ones together are able to develop the employees working potential.

Another feature that is often underlined is given by the way in which the group

collision and cooperation are encouraged instead of stressing upon individualism and

personal initiatives.

At the beginning of the new millennium the organizational change must take

into account the modifications that have interfered in the environment, the obvious

development of the informational technology. These aspects lead towards a new

“syntagm” – the society based on knowledge. It’s important to understand the human

modern collectivities.

Bibliografie:

1. Briddges, W.& Mitchell, S. (2000) Leading Transition, A New Model for

change, in Leader to Leader, vol.16, no.3

2. Hristache, D. (2004) Comunicare corporativă, Bucureşti: ASE

3. Zhao, B.Z. (1991) How do Japanese manage total quality, in The Best

Paper Proceedings of the 1991Annual Meeting of Association of Japanese

Business Studies, New York

4. Taira, K. (1989) Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations in

the United States: Japanization of America or Americanization of Japanese

Techniques, in Association for Japanese Studies

5. White, M.& Trevor, M. (1983) Under Japanee Management: the experience

of british workers, London: Heinemann Publisher

THE IMPACT OF ROMANIA’S ADHERING TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

Ph.D. Professor Romeo Ionescu

Dunarea de Jos University, Galatz

e-mail: [email protected]

In March 2000, the European Council from Lisbon stipulated that E.U. has to become the most

competitive and dynamic economy in the world until 2010.

Romania’s adhering to the E.U. doesn’t give much time to Romanian companies in order to

prepare for achieving Lisbon’s strategically objective.

For economic point of view, Romania has to eliminate the disparity given Central Europe, to

achieve European economic average level and to support Lisbon Agenda. As a result, there are five

zones for the debates: the reform of public administration based on developing regions, the

liberalization and the integration of the Romanian market to the E.U.’ s market, research, development

and innovation, measurement of Romanian labour transfer across the Europe and the intensification of

the Economic and Social Council.

Another part of the paper deals with investments’ opportunities for Romania as a new Member

State. So, we realized a comparative analysis between costs and benefits of adhering.

The conclusion is that is necessary a public strategy of information about the costs on

integration. As a result, there is a crisis of communication about European integration.

On the other hand, we analysed the importance of SME in order to obtain a regional

development in Romania. Another aspect is the foreign trade: we talked about the change of custom

tariff, about common foreign trade policies in E.U., about foreign direct investments and the evolution

of the internal demand.

We continued with the analysis of Romanian economy under the impact of the E.U.’s

enlargement until 2015. But we support the ideas which speak about the necessity to consolidate the

European “house”, about the low capacity of absorption of European Funds and about new ways of

integration without adhering, like in case of Helvetia.

We finish the paper in a optimistic manner because we consider that E.U. bring more

advantages than costs to its Member States and the main advantages for our country is that Romania

represents an alternative for branches’ locations.

The European integration has a lot of effects not only economic ones. A reunited Europe

means a more powerful continent, democratic and stable, in order to ensure peace and security and to

develop trade and investments into community.

After the last two enlargements, the E.U. has about 480 millions inhabitants. It is the greatest

common market from the world and it is ready to fight with global competition. In 2000, at Lisbon, the

European Council stipulated that the E.U. has to become the most competitive and dynamic economy

in the world until 2010. It will be possible using knowledge accumulation, a sustainable economy with

better jobs and a special cohesion policy.

Romania hopes to obtain advantages after its adhering to the E.U. But the Romanian

companies had not enough time to prepare for this event. The competitive framework becomes more

developed and Romanian companies have to fight against powerful and well-known companies from

Europe.

For the beginning, the European integration means common projects with European Union, in

which Romanian businessmen realised partnerships with businessmen from other Member States.

These projects determined the elimination of the technologic disparities between Romania and other

countries.

After Romania’s adhering, the activity of the Romanian companies had to be licensed on

market under competitive European standards. The activity of these companies has to be evaluating

using informational and informatics systems like SAP and SIVECO. On the other hand, it will be

implemented another American system.

So, there is the risk that Romanian economy isn’t able to apply European technologic

standards. As a result, Romanian companies must to invest all their profits for at least next two years.

If they will be not able to adapt at European standards, the foreign investors will go to other markets.

European integration represents a mars against a traditional inertia, and Romanians must

participate to a handicap course. These handicaps are:

elimination of the disparities between Romania and Central Europe;

achievement of the European average level of development;

supporting of the Lisbon Agenda.

Romania has to support Lisbon Agenda using a national plan of action. As a result, there are

five zones of debates:

the reform of the public administration using developing regions;

liberalization and integration of the Romanian market into the E.U.;

research, development, innovation, using our potential in IT industry;

measuring labour transfer in other countries;

reactivating of the Economic and Social Council in Romania.

Unfortunately, the law state is replaced in Romania with a ministry ordinances state.

Romanian developing regions are not viable as a result of the excessive centralization which has to be

substitute by a greater number of subsidiaries. The groups of interests must promote an inter-regional

development and support the elaboration of the necessary laws.

Integration represents more investments for Romania too. For the older Member States, that

means new markets. A great part of the European concerns have plants in Romania. That means a

greater competition on the markets. But, there are other sectors in which is necessary new entrances

of Romanian and foreign companies.

Practically, European integration is a problem of investments and revenues. It represents new

personal relationships and new experiences too. The welfare grows up only as a result of personal

investments in material base.

On the other hand, Romania has to learn from the experiences of those states which adhered

in 2004, in order to eliminate the possibility to become a simple market for other countries.

We must understand that the adhering implies costs, but the advantages are greater. The

main element is competitively, because E.U. has problems with the competitively of the American and

Japanese companies. Practically, Romania’s costs represent our investments for a better training into

E.U. But we don’t make the confusion between costs and looses, because the costs help us to

integrate quickly.

Romania has to learn to work on projects too. That means a real progress and civil society

must to inform its citizens about real costs and mechanisms of integration.

There are at least three benefits of integration for Romania:

economic, strategic and rare materials security;

prosperity;

a higher standard of civilization.

As a conclusion, there is no Member State which obtain only looses from integration. At least,

those states obtain little benefits than other.

There is a crisis of communication about European integration, especially about the costs of

integration. The E.U. is seeing like a rigid institution, especially the activity of the European

Commission.

As a result, the financial sources are very hard to access. There is not a real partnership

between government, union syndicates and employers. These three entities have different

conceptions about these problems and different points of views.

The social trilateral dialogue about working code implied powerful reactions from government

and employers. On the other hand, this dialogue is the unique way for a successful integration.

There is a chronic absence of dialogue between specialists of ministries and the legal

framework is difficult.

The modification of the fiscal code is an example of the absence of dialogue, because the

requests of IMF and E.U. weren’t correct understood and the proposals of the employers were

ignored. Probably, the past and the present governments have to collaborate. More, it must be a

debate between civil society, union syndicates, business medium, universities and government.

As a result, the integration has to achieve all levels of the society (political, economic and

social). We must be well informed in order to achieve European projects. On the other hand, the costs

for investments are little than the costs of ne-adhering.

Between Euro-enthusiasm and Euro-pessimism must be a middle way. As a result, the first

effects of the integration will be achieved in 2009.

The preparations for integration represent an individual responsibility because everybody has

to make his calculation in order of his punctual interests. We must understand that not Romanian

government will be integrated. Romanian inhabitants will be integrated in the E.U.

Practically, the political discourse is focused on the supporting of a “patient” and E.U. is

presented like a justification for all abuses.

Nowadays, we use too much mythology in order to implement unlimited needs for inhabitants.

But integration will be realized at individual level. So, the individual interest is the only one which is

important now. The term of Romania’s integration is a wrong one, because Europe has to become a

way of thinking for everybody.

The concept of European integration was and is very well defined using the sum of all

perspectives. Romania hasn’t a strategy in which it will be not able to integrate.

The motor of the Romanian economy are the SMEs, which are under the impact of integration.

This impact depends by the type of enterprises. The production and services enterprises which have

medium exports will be forced to fight with other European firms on common market, but they will

benefit of the advantages of a greater market. In order to have success on this greater market,

Romanian firms must have the capacity to implement innovation and technical progress.

On the other hand, SMEs become a important theme for economic analysis, in order to

quantify their contribution at macroeconomic development. There are a lot of European regions which

achieved a high development level as a result of SMEs’ activities.

The same SMEs represent an important element for Romania foreign trade. The statistical

databases about foreign trade allow Romanian government to establish global trade policies and to

have initiative on the new trade markets too. The same statistical databases are used by associations

from different national industries, by international organizations, firms and private companies in order

to monitory new markets and new development opportunities.

European legislation (European Parliament Framework and European Council’s Regulation

no.638/2004) about community statistics for goods trade between Member States stipulate realization

of different statistics for intra-community trade based on Intrastat statistical system and for extra-

community trade based on Extrastat statistical system.

After 1st of January 2007, the Romanian foreign trade statistics were changed as a result of

the elimination of custom declarations for those goods which circulate between Romania and other

Member States. As a result, Romania adopted Intrastat statistical system.

On the other hand, Romania has to apply common trade policy, that means common custom

tariff, generalized preferences scheme (GPS), measures of trade defence and trade preferential

accords with tertiary countries. In order to have success, Romania analysed the experiences of those

Member States which adhere in 2004 and before.

These countries have some common characteristics connected with their foreign trade, like

the following:

changes in their custom tariff: the custom taxes for trade with E.U. were cancelled. As a direct

effect, the trade connections with E.U. become better. On the other hand, the new Member

States implemented new taxes for tertiary countries and sever anti-dumping measures for

those goods which are from outside of the E.U.;

common foreign trade policy inside E.U.: that means new opportunities for the new Member

States. More, together with WTO’s regulations, E.U. signed free-trade accords with other

countries or organizations;

foreign direct investments: there are focused on industry, that implied a significant growth of

the imports in 2004, followed by smaller ones between 2005-2007. As a result, the trade

balances of these new Member States had different evolutions. Czech Republic was the only

new Member State which had trade exceeding in 2005, for example;

internal investments demand: grew very much and it covered especially cars and equipments.

Romanian internal market will be covered by local producers which will be able to promote research

and development. As a result, local output will grow and it will support restructuration process.

Nowadays, under new economy based on knowledge, Romanian firms’ competitively will

depend by their capacity to realise goods with high plus value at competitive prices. Globalization and

trade liberalization will force Romanian firms to become more efficient on Romanian and international

markets.

In order to achieve these objectives, Romanian firms need a coherent business strategy. This

strategy must include investments for research and development, new technologies, better managerial

practises, new projects and an efficient marketing.

Romanian industry operates in an open and competitive framework. That means the

implementation of the internal market like a first step for international efficiency. As a result, Romanian

firms must to succeed on internal market and on international markets too.

A new challenge for the E.U. appeared after the two last enlargements: the future dimension

of the E.U. Some specialists consider that E.U. will have 33 or 37 Member States in the following 15

years.

On the other hand, some voices talk about the necessity to consolidate present European

house. Gunter Verheugen criticized the European big-bang enlargement and considered that E.U.

must to reduce the speed of the integration process. More, he proposed that E.U. to focus on vertical

integration not on horizontal one and he talked about four priorities:

the success of internal reforms: improvement of the rules of common policies’ implementation,

growth of transparency and “democratic quality” of this implementation;

the growth of economic efficiency: in order to achieve the objective fixed by Lisbon Strategy

(March 2000). That means: E.U. the most efficient economy in the world until 2010 and

implementation of the European social model;

fight against organized crime and terrorism: in order to ensure security for European citizens;

a greater role and position of the E.U. in the world: in order to become the most important

global player.

In 2006, the European Parliament talked about the E.U. capacity to accept new members

(Strasbourg, 16th on March 2006). The concept of absorption capacity was often used after the refuse

of the citizens from France and Holland to adopt European Constitution. The new constitution had to

initiate the institutional bases for a new enlargement, after 2007. At the beginning of 2007, the French

foreign ministry asked for a clarification of the concept of absorption capacity. This clarification

appeared into a common declaration about new potential members from West Balkans gave at a

informal ministerial reunion at Salzburg. But this concept is not a new one. It was used for the first time

at European Council from Copenhagen in 1993 and it is known like the fourth criteria from

Copenhagen. This criteria talk about the E.U.’s capacity to absorb new members with the maintaining

of the rhythm of integration.

Olli Rehn, commissar for enlargement argued that the rhythm of enlargement is influenced by

the absorption capacity of the E.U., that means existence of a institutional equilibrium, limitation for

budget deficit and implementation of common efficient policies. But, Rehn preferred to talk about

function capacity than absorption capacity and asked for reform of European structures in order to

become more efficient and democratic, able to give more prerogatives to the E.U. about foreign policy

and against terrorism and international organized crime.

The train of the new enlargements has to be not a TGV or Eurostar, but a personal one. This

train of enlargement still moves and supports changes from the neighbour countries of the E.U.

Rehn consider that is difficult to design a limit of the E.U. on a map, because this limit can

affect the strategically influence of the E.U. More, E.U. consider that is necessary a multilateral

framework, as an intermediary step for adhering. The socialist group from European Parliament wants

a accelerate enlargement, but the right political group from the same Parliament wants a alternative

statute for some countries like Turkey, for example.

For Romania, the future integration will clean the business medium and will create a greater

competition in order to improve the quality of the Romanian outputs. The elimination of the trade

barriers will facility imports from other Member States and will put pressure on Romanian producers.

The greatest impact will be on agricultural firms. These firms need investments in order to

achieve European quality standards and often they have not enough money.

The advantages of the Romania’s adhering are based on the idea that it becomes more

attractive for production and investments to other European companies. As a result, Romania become

a good alternative for a lot of important European companies.

Bolkenstein directive will develop competition on services markets. We consider that the East-

European companies will have the advantage of little prices on common services market.

As a final conclusion, Romania can’t exist and develop without E.U. As a result, the future

integration of Romania will be supported by a sustainable economic development and by a new social

context.

ReferencesIonescu R.V., Marchis G., Tratat de Economie Europeana, Ed. Didactica si Pedagogica, Bucharest,

2007

National Forecasts Commission, Annual report, Bucharest, 23rd of November 2006.

141853154/doctorate/Popescu.doc

www.abm.ro

www.fisd.ro

www.tribunaeconomica.ro

www.ziarulfinanciar.ro

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http://www.tribunaeconomica.ro/

http://www.fisd.ro/

http://www.abm.ro/

The importance of the professional training and development of the human resources in the tourism field

Ph.D.Ramona GruescuPhD.Elena LolescuPhD. Daniel Toba

University of Craiova

Abstract. Tourism is a traditional, fragmented industry, dominated by small businesses

and lead by managers, who, mainly, have no education or formal training in tourism. There is a

point of view that a well qualified generalist can be very soon trained in the specific tourism

problems of an operation and is preferred to a high qualified specialist in tourism. This down to

up approach suffocates both the innovation and the leadership. Indeed, considering the rapid

change of the nature of tourism, there is a threat from the overspecialization in knowledge and

detailed abilities. Determining the efficiency of using the labour force in tourism activities

implies many particularities, specific for other branches of economy’s tertiary sector, also. These

are determined by: first, the difficulty of determining the output of touristic goods and services in

real terms, and to express that in specific units. Second, even when the work effects can be

expressed by technical information, a standardisation of work consumption can be achieved only

in a very small degree. Third, the heterogeneity of touristic activities and major discrepancies that

can be found among the components of the same product from one services supplier to another,

make a difficult job from selecting some physical common indices, to measure the work of all

categories of employees. For the future, a vision, commitment and mutual respect are needed

both from the industry and the education. If the education and the training in tourism support a

profitable industry in tourism, where the key position of the development of human resources is

acknowledged, then stronger partnerships, and also a better communication and a mutual

direction for education, training and quality products will be achieved in tourism. The

development of a quality tourism and development of education, training and quality products in

tourism, will satisfy a large scale of clients opinion, that tourism is a responsible, mature sector.

Key words: professional training, occupation, training, education.

Methodology. The research methodology that is used consists in statistical investigation,

gathering and processing data, economic and mathematical analysing and modelling of the

phenomena. Labour force used in tourism is analysed using some occupation indices that allow

the assessing the repartition of work places in the touristic sector to types of enterprises, knowing

their evolution in time and assessing the importance of tourism as work places supplier.The touristic sector is a complex industry, containing a large row of economic activities in each region thing

which involves a substantial investment in the human capital. From the demand point of view, the expansion and the

evolution of the touristic market is connected to the demographic changes of the population, the growth of the buying

force, the increase of the duration of free time and of its importance and the diversification of the public’s desires and

preferences.

The preference for mobility, the need of security, comfort and touristic authentic services are, among others,

the main expectations of tourists. Such expectations will be encountered mainly in a large palette of products and

services which will be available, through the increase of their quality and the acknowledgement of their availability

on the market.

Tourism is an activity offered by people, being the sector in which the productivity tends to be low and

where the increases in terms of touristic activity lead to create new jobs. Despite the progress reorganization of the

process of production of touristic services, accelerated by the application of new technologies, especially in the

countries which have a touristic sector with potential, but less developed, opportunities can be expected of

supplementary and the better and more various occupations.

Most of the European countries are very developed from the point of view of the businesses connected to

tourism and should be able to cope with the future challenges. Still, there is still room of improvement to overcome

the constraints which usually interfere in the businesses connected to tourism in Europe, especially for IMMs, to

benefit along these perspectives favourable of the market. Among these are:

- the lack of strategic knowledge regarding the touristic demand and the use of these information in

operational terms;

- the poor application of the quality control and of the qualitative techniques of management in

production, marketing and the offering of touristic services;

- the insufficiency of the appreciation of the richness and diversity of the available attractions all

over Europe and which can become the basis for new and original products and touristic

destinations (The National Research Institute- Development in Tourism, Romania)

The increasing demand of the tourists for touristic services personalized of high quality is often hard to

satisfy, as far as certain touristic sectors lack qualified personnel and suffers because of the lack of high class

personnel, often because of the lack of attractiveness of the work environment from tourism.

The relationship tourism and human capital is complex, of inter-conditioning, each of the two elements

having at the same time the role of cause and effect. Thus, the stimulation of the growth of tourism is an important

medium of re-launching of the working force, but the development, respectively the retardation of the development

of tourism depends on the existence or the inexistence of the human resources in the reference territory.

In the sphere of the services in general and in the sphere of tourism in particular the human factor is of a

special importance. In the field of tourism the human component is included in other fields.

Tourism is an industry with an intensive work market, which is based on people. When tourists visit a

destination-attraction, they “buy” not only the charm and the attractions, but also the ability and the services of the

employees in tourism. This is why, the development of human resources should be a main preoccupation of the

professional people from tourism. In the last years, the countries responded for the growth in the industry of tourism,

focusing on the development of the product and marketing.

Generally, the market of work in tourism is characterized by a low level of education. There are differences

from country to country and, also, there are differences between the sub-sectors. In each particular sub-sector such as

the Suppliers of aliments and drink could require a low level of education comparatively to other sub-sectors. The

image is somewhat different for the managers from all the sub-sectors where over the last years a growth of the level

of formal education took place. Specialists such as barmen, chefs are better trained, and the personnel from the

administrative positions tends to be more educated than the personnel from the operations of serving.

Within the sub-sectors such as the agencies of tourism, tour operators, the transport companies, the regional

transport companies, the big hotels, the general level of education is higher comparatively to other sub-sectors which

are more affected by seasoning of the demand and dominated by very small enterprises. Still, there still seems to be

an important need for the improvement of the general level of the formal education in tourism, in order to reduce the

lacks in the identified abilities.

Tourism is still characterized by a working force with a reduced level of the aptitudes for most of the jobs in

the basic sub-sectors, especially in IMM. On the other hand, there is a new demand for supplementary abilities, and

the big operators found media to develop the abilities of the working force. The main obstacles encountered in the

promotion the abilities are:

the lack of the working force and the change of the high level personnel;

the bad image and the private work conditions of the touristic industry as a job, including the

seasonality;

the lack of basic qualification that can be raised;

the reduction of the competition characteristic of micro-enterprises because of the lack of

development of the working force.

The industry of tourism is under a big pressure. The modifications encountered on the touristic markets, the

reorganization of the industry and a higher competition on the internal and international markets creates a very big

pressure on the specialty knowledge. The ability to succeed and the future performance of tourism and the activities

who go along with it will depend greatly on the abilities, qualities and the knowledge that the managers are capable

to bring to their businesses, goods that they can obtain through the sectors of education and training.

There is a large palette of problems, both as far as the quantity and also the quantity of management are

concerned, the facilities from tourism, the accommodation and the catering. Many of these can contribute to the

reduction of amateur management which characterizes the small businesses which dominate most of the industry of

tourism.

The small enterprises have supported a tradition of maintenance of amateur personnel in management,

which only the big unities started to change. The qualified personnel and trained professionals, and most of all those

with experience in other industries, are an unusual thing outside the big firms. These lead to a lack of complexity of

the politics and practices of human resources, which are dominated by unusual styles of management and approaches

of the operational circumstances. This makes tourism vulnerable to the ideas, the assumptions and its domination by

the practices of management identified in other economic sectors.

Indeed, the practices are usual in other industries of services-comprehensive induction, regulate

appreciations, effective communications with the employees-are poorly developed in many businesses from tourism

and relaxation.

The management abilities must be interpreted as fallows:

1) today’s management demands leadership;

2) the management of a tourism enterprise needs abilities not only to lead a services enterprise, but also to

a) lead an enterprise of services selling experience, being an integrated part of the chain tourism-value

b) lead an enterprise which- because of the nature of tourism- needs to make alliances of

networks/strategic-to work in a complexity of partnerships, such as s destination. Also, the need of

better knowledge in the management of destinations is increasing (Cooper, 1997)

What can be considered to be the new dimensions of the needs of knowledge for managers are: the impact

and the potential use of the technology of information and communication, the greater and greater focusing on the

quality and the management of human resources, the concept of durable development of tourism which adjoins to the

need of development of the management models orientated holistically and the need to focus on the vision and the

values of the enterprise, as instruments of management capable to work with new media of the organization.

The professional profile will have a greater multifunctional purpose, a greater flexibility and autonomy. For

instance, the personnel should be capable to furnish a diversified product regarding the quality if it has the

competence to work and make decisions independently. If the organizational change of the requirements of the

profile of a job takes place and the personnel holds abilities to work independently, it can assure flexibility, quality

and high productivity.

However the tasks and the operational and technical abilities will dominate the industry of tourism if the

strategy is authorized to eliminate the abilities.

The outlining of the profiles of the new jobs can be seen as a result of a general change in the manner in

which the work is organized- as we mentioned earlier- but it can be seen as a result of a more complex market, more

complex products and changes in the concept of service. As a consequence, the simple and repetitive traditional tasks

are transformed in multidimensional tasks to furnish complex products. Another trend would consist in the dividing

of the complexity of the service in simple, repetitive functions which need some or very little abilities. This tendency

to eliminate the abilities can be seen to a certain extent as a strategy which should cope with the qualified working

force.

The globalization of products, services and markets already affects the tourism sector from Europe until the

level at which there are more resemblances than differences between the factors which influence tourism in all the

member states.

1. Difficulties in the recruitment and the keeping of the personnel

The industry of tourism not only deals with an dreadful concurrence on the touristic markets, but there are

more and more proofs that in some countries and sub-sectors of the tourism there are what could be called “internal

concurrence on the work market” between different economic sectors. An immediate effect is that certain countries

(Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark) and sectors (hotels, restaurants, the suppliers of drinks and food) are dealing

with the problem of the employment availabilities (Cooper, 1997). When it is given attention to the demand and the

expectations of the future generations regarding the work life in general, this tendency can increase if the industry of

tourism doesn’t realizes that the agendum is no longer connected to the manner in which it is received the demand of

the touristic sectors for qualifications and the working force, but to the way in which the tourism responds to the

demands of the future working force. This essential change will come once we concentrate upon the management of

human resources.

Big expenses with the personnel represent a major obstacle for the development of the sector since the

enterprises are forced to use important resources to recruit and bring the new personnel and do not succeed in

building innovative organizations, based on knowledge.

The professions of the touristic industry present a series of characteristics which individualized them and

require special efforts regarding the planning and the recruitment of human resources:

• the low level of technicality, characteristic to certain basic functions from the services of hotels

and restaurants;

• a big mobility of the working force, permanently existing fluctuations of the degree of

engagement of the working force (often determined by seasonality or special events, holidays,

festivals), which requires the use of the occasional supplemental personnel for times of maximum

touristic intensity;

• the work carries on, priory, in counter time as compared to the usual program of work (weekends,

holidays, leaves of absence) which determines great difficulties in the recruitment of the working

force;

• the dimension of the work day, the work in tourism supposing a utilization of the entire available

time during a day, with possible negative consequences on the family and social plan that can

disturb the continuity in work of the personnel hired in tourism;

• physical exhaustion, most of the professions in tourism being generator of special physical efforts

and nervous exhaustion, especially during times of touristic afflux;

• psychological constraints, the personnel which comes into contact with the clients being forced to

make proof of control, adaptability to the clients’ demands, good disposition, patience. The

personnel must be an agreeable presence, comforting, to know plural foreign languages, have

psychological knowledge. All these requirements submit the works from tourism to constraints of

psychological nature, generator of modifications of the interval of time destined to the qualification

of the working force for these activities. (C. Cristureanu, 1992)

The planning of the human resources must be realized in two stages. During the first phase there are

established and analyzed:

• the skills, the abilities and the potential of the necessary personnel;

• the potential changes regarding the human resources due to promotions;

• the eventual losses caused by the improper use of human resources;

• the consequences absenting and of the changes of the working conditions.

The second phase refers to the actual planning, which is done through the development of some recruitment,

selection, employment and professional preparation, transformation and promotion of the personnel, material co

interest. The planning must take into consideration of the evolution of some influence factors such as: the

environment, the technology, the working market, the human and material potential, the politic of internal and

external partners, the legislative system, the national and international economic situation.

Within the methods of recruitment of the human resources must be used:

a. the publicity, which can make advertisements in the press, radio, television, and which must respect the

fallowing characteristics: to be diffused on a large scale, to offer sufficient information, to be formulated

exactly and creatively;

b. the network of knowledge/acquaintances, method through which we can appeal to colleagues, associates,

acquaintances, who can offer information about the persons interested in the occupation of the vacant jobs.

c. the use of the advisers for recruitment, forming teams of advisers well trained in the field who know where

and how to find potential candidates for the job;

d. the search of the persons, complex method, applied generally for the leading jobs and for the jobs which

require a high level of specialization. This method involves the localization, the identification and the

motivation of the candidates for the job.

2. The practical experience is no longer sufficient to stay competitive

Within the international market, the structures of the change intensify the competition. Even the small

enterprises-although oriented especially at the local level-live under the pressure of the globalization. From the point

of view of this trend, the era of the experience “at the working place” as being sufficient to have success has come to

an end. It must be replaced by an increasing involvement and capacity in the industry in order to offer systematic

teaching at the working place. The tourism industry-and particularly the IMMs and the micro enterprises-must

improve the general management and the knowledge, including the general statistics for development to increase the

quality of the planning.

More than that the ethics and the durable development plays a more and more important role in the society

in general, but also in tourism and must be a part of the development of tourism and also in the needs of teaching not

only in the industry of tourism, but also within the public administration responsible for the tourism planning.

3. The lack of the working force

Many countries do not deal only with an increasing competition regarding the quality, but also with severe

lacks regarding the abilities from here resulting a vicious circle. The lack of a competent working force and a

tendency to not give the proper attention to qualifications, and also the investments generally reduced in the formal

training and the training within the company, are some of the circumstances which prove this factor. The

development of the educational national (general) systems lead to a better educated working force generally. As an

example, the young generations have more abilities as far as the foreign languages are concerned and IT than the

previous generations. Even here there is an important lack of clarified working force, and the existing and potential

working force lacks the necessary abilities to be the key factor in the improvement of quality and competitiveness of

the touristic product.

The essential role of the human resources, both at the firm’s level, and the level of the entire society, results

from the fallowing grounds:

a. the human resources accomplish a decisive part in the process of the nature

transformation in goods destined to the needs of the society;

b. the human resources produce and reproduce objective factors of the production;

c. they represent both the creators and the stimulators of the production media;

d. represent the only production factor capable of creating great values;

e. they influence most of all the efficiency of the use of material, financial resources and

of information;

The necessary aptitudes for the carrying on of a useful activity must satisfy the fallowing criteria:

- the competence, respectively the capacity to resolve the tasks demanded by the job;

- the years of experience, the firm being able to recruit either young people, these ones forming themselves

professionally more easily, or only candidates with experience;

- the intelligence, the creativity, the facility to integrate in the working groups, the results obtained in the

present job or in the previous jobs.

In tourism, however, because of the relationship personnel-client, it is also necessary to observe the personnel’s

behaviour, its attitude, the way to act and react, because all these represent essential criteria of appreciation of the

services quality on the whole, elements that generate the pleasing and satisfaction of the tourists.

Tourism gives to the work performed in this sector a series of characteristics among which: large consume of live

work, material and moral responsibility, relatively high and complex level of preparation, direct relations worker-

client, accentuated seasonality, utilization of models of work with partial time.

Tourism is an intensive domain in work which means that the consummation of live work is superior

comparatively to other branches of similar dimensions. Thus, the necessary of work at the unity of product is one of

the highest, which supposes a greater number of workers and a lower productivity of work. The main reason of this

state consists in the fact that the mechanization and the automating have a limited sphere of application and can be

achieved for a small number of operations.

Because of the direct implication of an important part of the employees from tourism in the process of

serving the consumers, these ones have a high material and moral responsibility. The material responsibility is

determined by the material values they have in custody, the employees manage and manipulate them, to which is

added, for many categories of personnel, the responsibility for the goods of the tourist from the unities of hotel

accommodation or other similar unities.

Referring to the moral responsibility, we must start from the premises that the employee from tourism has

an important part in the stimulation of the demand, the creation of a relaxing atmosphere, the formulation of the

buying decision, the formation and the maintenance of the interest towards a touristic product and, in conclusion, in

the determination of the tourist’s return.

Also, the touristic industry supposes a relatively high and complex level of preparation. In tourism there are

an important number of functions which require a special qualification; apart from that the work in tourism solicits

beside the knowledge of technical order, specific to each sector (hotels, alimentation, transport) also a general high

level of training and culture. The worker must know a language of international circulation, know and be able to

present the touristic values of the aria where they perform their activity, be able to offer useful detailed and correct

information; the physical features and the appearance are important in the creation of an agreeable atmosphere and in

the stimulation of the consumers. Also, he must have the capacity to adapt to the psychic state of the tourists, to

promote a calm relaxing climate (R. Minciu, 2001)

Another characteristic of the work in tourism is that the direct contact between the employee and the

client/tourist, which will determine a continuous effort of adaptation of the worker to the demands and the

personality of each client, and also an adequate of communication between them. The direct contact employee-client

imposes increasing exigencies regarding the professional, the specialty and psychical preparation/training.

4. The technology of information and communication

Despite the general development of businesses and particularly those of e-business in some sectors of

tourism, such as the airline transports and the transport agencies, it seems that the IMMs and the micro-enterprises

from tourism doesn’t fully take advantage of the integrated and the solutions of e-business. Generally the small

enterprises are sceptical as far as the technology of information and communication and the Internet solutions,

mainly because of the lack both of the abilities and the operational resources and also the strategic ones (Cooper,

1996).

But the human resources too can be affected by the implications the technologies of information and

communication, e-business and the future reorganisation of the organisations will have on the needs and the

development of human resources, their employment and the creation of new opportunities of jobs.

But also, the technology means the possibility of automating of processes, and as a consequence of e-

business, all the processes of businesses should be reviewed. A logic reaction at the high costs with the working

force in combination with the problems of attraction of the working force is the automating, and there is no doubt

that the automating era in tourism started. Despite the natural concentration on the personal service encountered in

tourism, will be registered a development as a consequence of the possibilities of the automating and standardisation,

which in many cases will be the basis of the realization of the necessary resources for the improvement of

productivity and the furnishing of individual services of quality (The National Institute of Research-the Development

in Tourism, Romania).

Another effect of the information and communication technologies is the increasing of the e-learning possibilities-a

domain which is not yet expended in tourism although the potential as a flexible instrument of the demand for

learning is obvious.

5. The productivity

The determination of the efficiency of the utilisation of the working force in the touristic activity supposes a

series of particularities, specific in fact and of other branches of the tertiary sector of the economy. These are

determined, first of all, by the difficulty of the determination in real terms of the production of touristic goods and

services and of its expression in specific unities. Secondly even when the effects of the work can be expressed

through technical information, it can only be realised at a small extent a standardisation of the work consumptions.

Thirdly, the heterogeneity of the touristic activity and the major differences which exist between the components of

the same product from a provider of services to another, they render difficult the selection of some physical, mutual

indicators for the work measurements of all the employees categories.

The work productivity of employees represents one of the main indicators of the quality of the activity in

tourism, respectively of the efficacy of the utilisation of human resources. In the specific conditions of tourism the

most appropriate characterisation of the work productivity is represented by value expression of this one (receipts,

PIB-internal gross product, VA-added value on employee or on unity of time). The value expression of the work

supposes however some reserves, determined by:

the expression in comparable prices is difficult, because the increase of prices isn’t always the

exclusive result of inflation, but can also be an effect of the increase of the quality of services;

any effect of the consume of working factors in tourism is influenced also by external factors as are

the position of the unity, the level of tariffs, the tourists’ structure, the degree of technical

endowment, etc;

It results, thus, the work productivity in the value expression doesn’t reflect on the whole the economic and

the social effect of the spent work and, as such, the combined measurement of the physic and value indicators is

necessary in order to obtain a complete image of the efficiency and the manner in which the working force is used.

The work productivity in tourism represents smaller values than in other branches of the economy because

of the great consume of live work and of the small possibilities of implementation of the technical progress. For the

achievement of an increase of work productivity, this aspect reflecting in the financial results on the whole of the

economic agent, is necessary to identify the factors of influence of the work productivity and the ways of their

modification.

Within the direct influence factors on the work productivity are inscribed: the level of the professional

preparation, the organisation of work and the degree of technical endowment.

A higher level of preparation of the working force permits the practice in better conditions of the functions

and the obtaining of better results. Any misfit between the requirements of the job and the professional preparation

of the employees is negatively reflected on the working productivity and on the satisfaction in work of the employee.

As a consequence, a rigorous delimitation of the attributions of each job, the recruitment o some well prepared

employees and the permanent increasing of their qualification level.

Also, an important factor of influence of work productivity is represented by the way of organization of

work. This aims the organization of each job for the obtaining of a maximum output, through the promotion of

modern methods of leadership, the fluidization of information circuit, the improvement of system of the organization

on norms of work, the simplification of organizational structure, the reduction of the number of intermediaries.

The results of the work and the consummation of live work differ in report of the degree of technical

endowment and the technical-functional parameters of the equipments and installations. The increase of the degree of

technical endowment solicits, however, high investments and it is relatively limited, only a part of the compartments

of the touristic activity having a high degree of receptivity for the technical progress. The realization of these

investment efforts for a superior technical endowment will allow the obtaining of some better results under the

qualitative aspect, concomitantly to the faster and of a greater quality serving of the consumers.

Beside the direct factors of influence, on the productivity of the work can very well act, randomly and with

a more reduced influence, a series of indirect factors which have an influence on the conditions of the developing of

the touristic activity, the tourists’ structure, the placement of the unities as compared to the main orientations of the

flux of travels, the force of attraction of different arias, the good name of the holiday destinations.

The level of prices and tariffs causes the increasing of the value volume of the activity, and, implicitly, an

increase of the work productivity. This factor, however, must be carefully analyzed, the variation of prices and tariffs

could be the effect of the action of various factors such as: the improvement of the services’ quality, the inflation and

the organization on types and categories of comfort of work productivity, although the employees effort and the live

work consummation can be the same to the one of the employees from the unities of more modest category.

The seasonality, depending on natural factors, on the consummation habits, on the institutionalized periods

of holiday, causes the concentration of the demand in certain periods and its restraint the rest of the time, with

unfavorable needs on the volume of the activity, the work consume and of their results.

Incidences on the work productivity creates the tourists’ structure depending on the type of tourism

practiced-national or international, the type of arrangement solicited (in the organized tourism being practiced more

reduced tariffs), on the means of transportation used, the motivation of the travel, etc. (R. Minciu 2001)

6. The lack of attractiveness of the work environment form tourism

Except of some countries such as Germany, Austria and Finland the general experience is that the image of

the industry of tourism is bad for an employer, especially as far as the sub-sectors such as the accommodation and

the food and drink suppliers are concerned, while the tourism agencies, the tour operators, the transport companies,

the regional companies of tourism, the big hotels seem to have a better image.

The precarious conditions of work without (visible) perspectives of career, the hierarchical or non organizational

structure, the low wedges, the part-time or season jobs, are some of the factors which are added to the bad image.

7. The seasonality of the demand and the structure of the industry.

The tourism of relaxation is very affected by the seasonality of the demand. In some destinations the season is

limited to 3 months. And together with the seasoning structure there is often a dependence of some markets, some

segments and a weak diversification of the offer. The seasonality is to a great extent identified to the mutual aspect of

the problems found behind the fragmentation of the structure of industry in small enterprises and micro-enterprises.

The seasoning occupation and the big fluctuation of the personnel, comparatively to other sectors of activity, are

tightly connected to the seasoning concentration of the touristic circulation and on the temporary functioning of an

important part of the technical-material base. Thus here comes the necessity of an increased number of workers who

should cope with the requirements from the times of maximum activity, which will lead to the reduction of the

exigencies in the process of their selection. The big fluctuation of personnel reduces the level of satisfaction in work

of the workers, because of the insecurity of the job and the more reduced incomes, encouraging the migration to

sectors with permanent activity. Higher expenses regarding the creation and the maintenance of the jobs emerge,

increasing the complexity of the problems to which must respond the department of human resources.

In this sector it is practiced, in a greater extent then in others, the work with partial time and are applied

flexible methods to the occupation of the personnel (the hiring during the weekend, on the occasion of certain events,

holidays, or for certain activities-guides, instructors, etc). These flexible formulas of occupation respond to the needs

of some segments of the population-women, students, retired people, creating however difficulties in the recruitment

of the working force.

These particularities influence the number and the dynamic of workers, the level of the work productivity,

the politics of recruitment and organization of the professional preparation.

Because of the seasonality a more stable, mature development of tourism is hard to obtain, and hence of more stable

jobs, the seasonality limiting this way the innovation and the development of the working force. On the other hand,

the structure of the seasonality can be used as a means of obtaining high abilities.

The image of the seasonality is somewhat different for the business tourism, the towns and the countries or the big

destinations both with more than one season. Also the image varies on the sub-sectors; the tourism agencies, the

transports sector-the international hotel chains are not so much affected by the seasonality of the demand. In fact we

can say that when we talk about tourism in general terms we are dealing with two very different worlds, although

both affected by the globalization.

8. Global enterprises and micro-enterprises

The touristic sector is divided into the world of the oriented players at global level-airlines, tour operators,

hotel chains, amusement parks etc. with global systems of reservation, which use advanced technologies, standards

of services, concept of services and also own concepts and plans of training, and the big world of local micro-

enterprises, often family businesses (the IMMs and the micro-enterprises represent more than 90% of the industry).

These are more sensible to the seasonality of the demand and traditionally orientated towards the businesses at the

local level, but affected by the markets’ globalization.

Bibliography

Chris Cooper, Eduardo Fayos-Sola, Donaldo Hawkins, Sheryl Spivack (1997) An introducing to TEQUAL-A

methodology for quality in tourism education and training, WTO Tourism Education and Training Series

Chris Cooper, Rebecca Shepherd, John Westlake, (1996) Education and educators in tourism: A manual of tourism

and hospitality education, WTO Tourism and Training Series, 1996

C Cristureanu, (2002) The economy and the politic of international tourism, Abeona, Bucharest

J. Christopher Holloway (2002)-“The Bussiness of Tourism”-sixth edition, Pearson Education, London

The National Institute of Research-Development in tourism, Romania, (2002) Present problems of the demand of

working force from the Romanian tourism in the context of the European Union adherence-Phase I

I. Ionescu, V. Ionascu, M. Popescu, (2002) The economy of tourism and commerce enterprise, Uranus, Bucharest

R. Minciu, (2001) Tourism economy, Uranus, Bucharest

O. Snak, P. Baron, N. Neacsu, (2005) Tourism economy, Expert, Bucharest

Tendencies regarding training and education in tourism

PhD. Roxana Nanu

PhD. Gheorghe Pirvu

PhD. Daea Alexandra

University of Craiova

Tourism is an industry with an intensive labour market based on people. The importance of tourism

strategic treatment as a consequence of its involvement in solving the problems of the working class has

imposed, world wide, the promotion of some politics which should assure both tourism’s integration in the

strategies of fighting against the unemployment, and also the allocation of investments for the increase of the

level of education and formation of professional aptitudes and personnel quality, encouraging the partnership of

public sector and private sector.

Generally, tourism labour market is characterized by a low level of education. Tourism is a traditional

industry, fragmented, dominated by small businesses and leaded by managers who, mainly, have no education or

formal training in tourism. There is a point of view that a well qualified generalist can be soon trained in specific

problems of a touristy operation and is preferred to a high qualified specialist in tourism. This approach from

down to up suffocates both the innovation and the leadership. Given the rapid change of the nature of tourism,

there is a danger from the overspecialization in knowledge and detailed abilities. The professional preparation is

necessary to cope with the demand in growth to the acquiring of new aptitudes by the labour force. For that were

outlined through importance the following priorities: the facilitation of the information exchange, especially

through the new technologies; the improvement of the professional preparation through the acquiring of new

aptitudes in tourism industry; the improvement of the quality of the touristy products; the promotion of the

environmental preservation and the sustainable development in tourism; the professional preparation inside the

company and other processes regarding the job and the spare time when people are learning.

Key words: training initiatives, human resources, qualitative aspect, productivity, professional preparation

Methodology. Methodology and the methods used, the way of organizing and unfolding of the research

have in view: The quantitative side (number of employees at one sightseeing spot); The qualitative side

(handling, specialty knowledge, attitude towards the clients, the operability of the serving, elegance, good taste

etc.)

The present problems working force demand from tourism derives from the reasoning of economic order,

connected to the increase of the economic efficiency, the cost occasioned by the activity of professional

preparation and development being taken as investment for the assurance of the firm’s progress.

The professional preparation is a process of learning/training, through which the wage earners acquire

theoretical and practical knowledge, new technical abilities which should make their present work more

efficient. The professional development is a more complex process of preparation of managers or other

specialists to assume increased responsibilities, in the present or future seats. These two types of activities differ

by purpose and persons to which they address to. In exchange, they are both necessary both for the individual

progress of each employee, and for that of the organization.

The diversity and the quality of the services are the main factors of concurrence and, as a consequence,

the fundamental problems with which are dealing the industry of tourism in general and the receptor

international tourism in particular. On these two essential aspects depends, in the last place, the prosperity, the

stagnation or the involution of the entire future touristic activity.

The service provided for the clients is the result of two components: a qualitative one, with mainly

material character (example: the doting with technique equipments, the quantity and the diversity of the

aliments, the environment, the number of the personnel etc.), which can be evaluated on an objective basis, and

the second one, a qualitative component, behaviorist, which cannot be evaluated objectively; this in certain

situations can have a decisive role.

The quantitative sporire of those involved in the organization and the performing of voyages, in the

serving of tourists is an effect of the significant increase of the number of persons which make a journey, the

distances of traveling, of the time allocated to holidays etc. the number of those who work in hotels and

restaurants, transports, travel agencies, pleasure performances, the administrative leading of the touristic

apparatus registered a substantial increase on tourism’s development. These activities are found, totally or

partially, in the structure of the touristic industry, which makes difficult the rigorous evaluation of those

occupied in tourism; many of these jobs are seasoning or part-time, so that, the contribution of tourism to the

full-time hiring is considerably smaller in comparison to the jobs paid by the hour. Moreover, we should mention

that the aria of inclusion of the touristic industry is sensibly different from one country to another, accentuating

the difficulties of commensuration from this sector. The jobs are often created in arias where there are few

alternatives of hiring. It is worth reminding that many of these jobs attract those who want to work during the

season, such as students who look for work as representatives of the resort during the summer or the owners who

rent their houses in the summer time.

It is clear that, for the countries which are major warm destinations or who rejoice a powerful

internal touristic demand, the number of jobs is much bigger. In the balance sheet, tourism as a form of

employment is benefic from the economic point of view, although efforts should be made in order to create more

full-time jobs in this industry.

A particular aspect of the relationship tourism-working force is represented by the indirect contribution

to the increase of the number of those occupied in this sector, the tourism having the quality of goods and

services consumer; this influences favorably the utilization of the working force in its supplying branches, such

as: agriculture, alimentary industry, light industry, constructions, the industry of construction materials, etc. If

the tourists are accommodated in a certain aria, there are created directly jobs. These workers and their families

who live nearby must take supplies from the aria, and their families need preparation and medical assistance. In

their turn, these give birth to other jobs in shops, schools and hospitals in order to satisfy the needs. The volume

and the quality of the touristic activity depend essentially on the appointment with personnel, that is the number

of workers and their qualification level, on the concordance between the characteristics of the preparation of the

working force and the functions fulfilled, on the professionalism and the quality of the exercise of the

attributions. The role of the human factor increased during the contemporary period, because of the increase of

exigencies of consumers for the quality of services and the participation to the touristic activity of larger and

larger segments of the population.

A multitude of aspects define the relationship tourism-working force under the qualitative aspect, such

as: the level of qualification of those occupied in tourism and the structure of the working force on levels of

preparation, the report between the those hired full time and part time, the proportion of the seasoning employees

and the personnel fluctuation, the cost of the professional formation.

From the point of view of the professional preparation, a great part of the specialists consider that

tourism needs personnel with a high qualification level, with a large horizon of knowledge, well trained,

knowing a foreign language of international circulation, capable to recommend and promote the touristic

product; also an important segment of the experts in the field appreciate that also the activities which do not

require a specialty preparation have a large presentation in tourism, this becoming a debuseu for the unqualified

and poorly qualified working force.

The experts’ opinions are supported by the structure on qualification levels of those occupied in

tourism; upon some studies effectuated in the main European touristic countries the fallowing were observed:

appreciatively 40% form the total of the personnel from tourism is unqualified, almost 42% has general average

preparation, 8%-specialty studies and only 10%-superior studies.

The relative high cost (comparable, in some authors’ opinion, with that from the industries with high

level of technique) the demand of a new job in tourism and its maintenance is determined by the temporary

character of the employment of the workers from tourism.

The quality characteristics of the serving personnel have in view:

• The quantitative side (number of employees at one room);

• The qualitative side (handling, specialty knowledge, attitude towards the clients, the operability of

the serving, elegance, good taste etc.)

Taking into consideration all these, a definition of the quality of human resources is enunciated as being “the

ensemble of their individual and mutual characteristics which in a certain social and management climate, of a

system of stimulants and in the presence of some adequate material conditions are used voluntarily for the

realization of the objectives of the organization at a high performance level”.

It is obvious that the desire of rending efficient the activities of the companies imposes the necessity of

the assurance of the human resources at a superior qualitative level.

In fact the international standards of the quality vise precisely this thing, and a distinct procedure of

the quality system (included in these standards), entitled “the qualification, the training, the selection and the

hiring of the personnel”, establishes the demands and the modalities of assurance of the corresponding human

resources under the qualitative aspect basing itself on the fallowing components:

• The recruiting, the selection and the integration of the personnel;

• The appointment on the job/post;

• The promotion and the transfer;

• The wage system and other forms of remuneration;

• The evaluation of the personnel;

• the organization and the production of work;

• the professional instruction and preparation;

• the assurance of the conditions for the recuperation of the working capacity.

These components have in view the assurance and the growth of the human resources quality and also the

qualitative level at a certain point, on the basis of the specific characteristics.

The personnel’s behavior must be inscribed in a conduit specific to each firm, which is defined through its

politic of a product. The objectives of the use of the personnel are tightly connected to the ensemble objectives

of the politic of product of the firm. They are found in desiderates as the quality improvement, the productivity

growth and the services diversification.

The dimension of the quality of the performed services is determined, in greatest part, by the activities

fulfilled by the contact personnel. Their simple enumeration outlines the role of the personnel performer of

services, come in direct contact with the client, in the improvement of the services’ quality in tourism: the

correctitude, the receptivity, the trust inspired, the personalization and their inclusion as an objective of the use

of the personnel. Such a role is the consequence of the position held by the personnel, found at the frontier

between the internal and the external environment. The reminded aspects suppose the development of an

emotional activity characterized by symbol, look, the expression of a sincere interest, conversation etc.

The essential role of the human resources both at the level of firm, and at the level of the entire society,

results from the fallowing considerations:

a. the human resources fulfill a decisive role in the process of transformation of nature in goods destined

to the needs of the society;

b. the human resources produce and reproduce the objective factors of production;

c. they represent both the creators and the stimulators of the production means;

d. they represent the only production factor capable of creating great values;

e. they influence in most part the efficiency of the use of material, financial resources and of information.

The aptitudes necessary to the development of a useful activity must satisfy the fallowing criteria:

- the competence, respectively the capacity of resolving the tasks required by the job;

- the years of service, the firm being able to recruit whether only youth, more easily to form

professionally, or experienced candidates;

- the intelligence, the creativity, the ease of integration in the work groups, the results obtained at the

present job or at the previous jobs.

In tourism however, because of the direct relationship personnel-client, it is also necessary to observe the

personnel’s behavior, its attitude, its way to act and react, because these represent essential critiques of

appreciation of the quality of services in their whole, elements which generate the tourists’ pleasing and

satisfaction.

Tourism gives to the work performed in this sector a series of characteristics among which: large consume of

live work, material and moral responsibility, relatively high and complex level of preparation, direct relations

worker-client, accentuated seasonality, use of work models with partial time.

Tourism is an intensive domain in the work which means the consummation of live work is superior

comparatively to other branches of close dimensions. Thus, the necessary of work at the unity of product is one

of the highest, which supposes a greater number of workers and lower work productivity. The main reason of

this state consists in the fact that the mechanization and the automation have a limited sphere of application and

can be realized for a small number of operations.

Because of the direct implication of an important part of the tourism employees in the process of

serving the consumers, these have a high material and moral responsibility. The material responsibility is

determined by the material values the employees have to take care of, administrate and manipulate, to which is

added, for many personnel categories, the responsibility for the goods of the tourists found in the hotel

accommodation units and similar ones.

As far as the moral responsibility is concerned, we must start from the premises that the employee from

tourism has an important role in the simulation of the demand, the creation of a relaxation atmosphere, the

formulation of the buying decision, the formation and the maintaining of the interests for the touristic product

and, in conclusion, in the tourist’s return.

Also, the touristic industry supposes a relatively high and complex level of preparation. In tourism there

is an important number of functions which do not need a special qualification; beside these the work from

tourism reclaims apart from the knowledge of technical order, specific to each sector (hotels, alimentation,

transport) also a high general instruction and culture level. The employee must know a language of international

circulation, know and be able to present the touristic values of the aria where they perform their activity, be able

to offer detailed useful and correct information; the physical features and the appearance are important for the

creation of an agreeable atmosphere and the stimulation of the consumers. Also, they must have the capacity to

adapt to the psychical mood of the tourist, to promote a relaxed, relaxing climate (R. Minciu, 2001)

Another characteristic of the work in tourism is that of the direct contact between the worker and the

client/tourist which will determine a continual effort of the worker to adapt to the demands and the personality of

each client, and also of an adequate of communication between them. The direct contact employee-client

imposes increased exigencies regarding the professional, specialty and psychical preparation.

The work productivity in tourism presents smaller values than in other branches of the economy

because of the large consummation of live work and the reduced possibilities of implementation of the technical

progress. For the realization of an increase of the work productivity, this reflecting in the financial results of

ensemble of the economic agent, it is necessary to identify the influence factors of the work productivity and the

modality of their modification.

Within the factors of direct influence allows the exercise in better conditions of the functions and the

obtaining of better results. Any misfit between the demands of the job and the professional preparation of the

employees is negatively reflected on the work productivity and on the satisfaction in work of the worker. As a

consequence, a rigorous delimitation of the attributions of each job is important, the recruitment of well prepared

workers and the permanent raising of their level of qualification.

Also, an important factor of influence of work productivity is constituted by the manner of organization

of work. This vises the organization of each job in the purpose of the obtaining of a maximum working

efficiency, through the promotion of modern methods of leading, the fluidization of the information circuit, the

improvement of the system of work norm setting and the, the simplification of the organizational, the

simplification of the organizational structure, the reduction of the number of intermediaries.

The results of the work and the consummation of live work differ in report of the degree of technical

endowment and the technical-functional parameters of the equipments and installations. The growth of the

degree of technical endowment reclaims, however, the investments raised and it is relatively limited, only a part

of the compartments of the touristic activity having a high degree of receptivity at the technical progress. The

realization of these investing efforts for a superior technical doting will allow the getting of better results under

the qualitative aspect, at the same time with the more rapid and quality serving of the consumers.

Beside the direct factors of influence, on the work productivity can act, at random and with a more

reduced, a series of indirect factors which exercise an influence on the conditions in which the touristic activity

is developed: the level of prices and tariffs, the seasonality of the touristic activity, the tourists’ structure, the

placement of the units according to the main orientations of the fluxes of travelers, the force of attraction of

certain arias, the fame of some holiday destinations.

The level of prices and tariffs determine the majoring of the value volume of the activity and, implicitly,

a growth of the work productivity. This factor, however, must be carefully analyzed, the variation of the prices

and tariffs being possibly the effect of the action of plural factors such as: the improvement of the services’

quality, the inflation and the structure on types and categories of comfort of the units. The units of superior

category register thus higher levels of work productivity although the effort of the employees and the

consummation of live work can be the same with that of the employees from the units of a more modest

category.

The seasonality dependent on the natural factors, on the consume customs, on the institutionalized

holiday periods, determine the concentration of the demand in some periods and its limitation the rest of the

time, with unfavorable effects on the volume of the activity, the consummation of live work and of their results.

The incidences on the work productivity create the structure of tourists too according to the type of

tourism practiced-national or international, on the type of arrangement solicited (in the organized tourism being

used more reduced tariffs), the used means of transport, the motivation of the journey, etc. (R. Minciu 2001)

Because the improvement of the quality of services and the growth of the productivity are often found

in an inverse relation, becomes necessary the performing of the activity in a manner which would assure the

equilibrium between the quality and the quantity of the performed services, equilibrium which is constituted in a

specific objective of the use of personnel.

In this context appears obvious the fact that the strategies of the use of the personnel are found in the

strategies of the activity developed in the domain of the assurance with the necessary of human resources.

• the recruitment of personnel with real aptitudes for the performing of touristic services;

• its perfecting in the performing of some high quality services;

• the motivation of the personnel hired for its perpetuation,

• the assurance of the material support necessary to the realization of the performance and

• the keeping the best within the firm

Each alternative is rendered operational through various specific strategies.

One of the major problems of the industry is the developing of challenging and financially attractive careers

in the industry of tourism: the careers which will increase the dignity of the industry through the increasing of

the professionalism; the reduction of expensive expenses with the personnel; the raising of the productivity

through the sense of the property. Clearly the education and the training have an important role to play, to build a

solid foundation of qualification and the experience of the industry. All over in tourism, the expenses with the

personnel are generally raised at all the level of sub management, leading to difficulties regarding the

recruitment. But the companies which carefully planned the recruitment and training strategies sustain that that

helped them keep their personnel.

The employers from tourism consider that the preparation basis as important at all levels. From their point

of view, the most appropriate educational level is the vocational training for the personnel which is in direct

contact with the clients and the supervisors, while these prefer post university classes for the managers.

The preferred study domains are the specific preparation in the tourism combined with the study of the

businesses and liberal arts, which suggests that the employers wish to discover human resources of the type of

those prepared in several domains, which can adapt to the functions specific to each professional category.

The employers from tourism have identified their priorities for basic and theoretic knowledge and the

personal abilities considered essential for each type of job. Of particular interest, low rates of the priorities were

registered, which is surprising if we consider the levels of satisfaction of the employers from tourism are

relatively low. Still, the interpersonal communication appeared as being of a relevant importance at the level of

the supervisors and the personnel which is in direct contact with the clients, while the management abilities and

the strategic planning were overwhelming at the managerial level. As main tendencies in the problems connected

to the development of the abilities and of those referring to the job we can notice:

- the managers will have to develop more abilities as far as the management of human resources is

concerned, especially in the knowing of the aspects which motivate the working force.

- At the same time with the continual internalization of businesses, all the managerial levels will need

more training as far as the international environments and the multicultural abilities are concerned.

- The knowing of the environment and the conservation techniques will become an essential part of the

education in tourism at all professional levels.

- The expansion of the franchise among the transnational companies will hurry the need for international

standards in the quality of services and finally among the abilities and knowledge of the employees.

- The problems of public health, such as AIDS, will become an essential part of the education in tourism

at all levels.

- The supervisors will have to acquire more management abilities of high level, such as the previsions of

marketing and the strategic planning.

- The employers will prefer the candidates who already hold a combination between the formal education

and a previous working experience.

- The performance of an employee will count more than other criteria regarding the compensation and the

benefits.

- The groups, such as those of women, which were traditionally less represented at the managerial levels,

will play a more important role.

- The change of the life style will determine the companies to adopt more flexible practices of work.

- Tendencies of saving the economy will reduce the chances of promotion of the employees.

- In order to increase the services’ quality, the incentives will become standards for companies.

- More tourism graduates will be hired for supervisors’ positions than it is usually the case.

- The towns of 24 h will become the norm, inducing a non stop system of hiring.

- A MBA will become an essential request to enter and advance at the managerial levels of a company.

- The industry will rather hire persons who detain knowledge in the liberal arts.

The employers appreciated the quality of the abilities and knowledge of their employees as being very low,

especially at the level of the personnel which is in direct contact with the clients. Still, this is precisely the

category with the lowest access to the training opportunities, so we ca deduce from the observations regarding

the current initiatives meant to improve the preparation of the employees from tourism.

Beside the formal education, the employers showed a special importance for the previous experience of their

personnel. From now on we need specific training programs which should combine the theoretic knowledge with

the experience.

The most appropriate environment for the habituation of abilities and knowledge requested for the

fulfillment of the tasks connected to each occupational category has proven to be a combination between school

and the job, which suggests that the suppliers of education and the employers from tourism should work more

together in the creation of training programs.

The main major tendencies are the predictable growth in the industry of tourism and the reorientation

towards new markets. The problem on which there is a general consensus refers to the need of qualified human

resources, capable of guarantee the offering of quality services in tourism- a sine qua non condition in order to

exist competitiveness.

There is a general agreement that the businesses in tourism should play a relevant role in the training

and practical education of their employees. Within the educational system are permanently producing

modifications, in order to adapt to the demand in continuous change:

- the training institutions in tourism will have to improve the part of the education syllabus which refers

to the businesses abilities.

- The constant technological change will affect the traditional teaching methods, once are introduced

alternatives such as distance education, interactive training etc.

- The industry will have an increased responsibility for the preparation of their employees at all levels.

- The companies will continue more and more the continuous preparation in order to assure the

commitment and the keeping of their employers.

- International exchange programs at all hiring levels will become usual.

The industry and the education must work in partnership in order to promote the accessibility of tourism as an

activity. The educational levels in schools- and among the general public- connected to the tourism, was lowed

in the past and contributed to the bad image of tourism and to its acceptability as an activity in general. This is

why there is a desperate need in the future so that industry and education tie this lack and work together. The

expansion of education and training in tourism got to the point of exercising an intense pressure on the budgets

of the public sector. Traditionally, the public sector expects to furnish educational programs which will produce

the managers from tourism and the personnel in direct contact with the client. In front of the budget reductions,

the educational institutions will have to cooperate much closer, and enforce the connections with the industry,

the tourism boards and other organisms in tourism- including the community and the consumers.

In the future, are needed a vision, commitment and mutual respect both from the part of industry and

the education. If education and training in tourism will support an profitable industry in tourism, where the key

position of the development of human resources is recognized, stronger partnerships will be able to be realized, a

better communication and a mutual direction for an education, a training and quality products in tourism. The

development of quality tourism and of a quality education and training in tourism will satisfy the conviction of a

large specter of clients- parents, students, employers, governments and the tourism clients- that tourism is a

responsible, mature sector.

A distinction should be made between education and training, the benefits of the education in tourism

are more on a long term, contrasting to the training in tourism, where the benefits are measurable and

instantaneous.

For the industry as a whole, these add value, raise the quality of the personnel, give a sense to the

professionalism and of the property. Also, it helps to the identification and to the pointing out of the

resemblances with other different sectors (for instance transport, hospitality, attractions). Those who work in

industry understand the inter-relations between the sectors and start to perceive opportunities of businesses. The

training offers especially practical abilities and knowledge which raises the performance and the productivity of

the personnel within the industry, connecting the education and training to the planning of the working force it

will be allowed a greater closeness to the sector’s needs of the results of the tourism schools. Obviously, the

employers with vision on a long term use education and training to help them keep the personnel offer a career to

the employees succeeding this way a better use of the human resources in the industry of tourism.

A well trained professionally industry of tourism will furnish a better product and a better level of the service for

more and more full of pretensions tourists. Better prepared personnel, better paid offering better services to the

clients and a greater productivity of the company, make the company and the country richer, benefiting both the

visitors and the resident population. The visitors will return to reinforce the cycle.

The industry admits clearly that the quality human resources in tourism are the key for its future success. Beside

this quality need is registered an increase in the number and variety of the abilities requested for different

occupations of the industry. For instance, the hotel personnel have access in useful time to information in order

to help them fulfill more efficiently the tasks. Also, the general hotel managers are no longer simple good hosts;

they must be efficient leaders with good operational and financial management abilities and be capable of

assuming a large palette of responsibilities from the increase of sales, the planning of a new relaxation complex,

and also develop a multicultural approach of the businesses operations. This means that, in order to stay

efficient, the tourism managers must profound their knowledge regarding the operational aspects of businesses,

and the good conceptual and creative abilities.

The fact that tourism is interpreted in different ways and extends on so many sectors is reflected

through the multitude of educational approaches adopted.

The professional preparation and the systems of professional preparation play an important part when we speak

of the need of perfecting the aptitudes, but new forms of work organization and a more complex business

environment suppose new approaches of the professional preparation. Plus there is the need of taking into

account all the processes during which people learn, in order to understand and improve the totality of the

possibilities of development of the human resources as an innovation basis, productivity, quality and competition

in the industry of tourism.

The professional preparation is necessary to cope with the demand in growth to the acquiring of new

aptitudes by the working force. For that were outlined through importance the fallowing priorities: the

facilitation of the information exchange, especially through the new technologies; the improvement of the

professional preparation through the acquiring of new aptitudes in the industry of tourism; the improvement of

the quality of the touristic products; the promotion of the environmental preservation and the durable

development in tourism; the professional preparation and other processes regarding the job and the spare time

when people are learning.

The preparation of the human resources can be achieved through one of the forms:

- formal learning, which takes place in education and training educations, generating diplomas and

acknowledged qualifications

- the non formal learning which happens beside the main systems of the education and training and does

not necessarily lead to formalized certificates. The non formal learning can be furnished at the job place

through the activities of the organizations and the societies’ groups (such as the youth organizations, the

syndicates and the politic parts). Also they can be furnished trough the organizations and the services

which were founded to complete the formal systems (such as the art, music, sport classes or the private

professors to get prepared for the exam)

- the informal learning is not an usual accompaniment in the ordinary life. Unlike the formal and the non

formal learning, the informal learning is not necessarily an intentioned learning and hence it can be

easily recognized by persons as a way of contributing tp the knowledge and their competences.

The concept of competence embraces the technical abilities, the general abilities, the personal abilities and also

the abilities (easy abilities) necessary to be useful in other abilities in an organizational/ business context. While

the abilities can be acquired in an institutionalized context offered by educational/ training institutions, the

person needs informal abilities and auto learning abilities in order to use the formal abilities at his job.

There is the need of knowledge for tourism in general and need for each working category: managers,

supervisors, qualified/professions working force. Still there is a mutual need of knowledge needs for all the

categories- which of course depend on the size of the enterprise.

Beside the fact that the learning needs are oriented towards the ability to lead and facilitate the

stimulation of services- which is the basis of the industry- the needs of learning could be relevant for other

sectors of the economy too. This works for all the categories of working force and in particular for management.

The fast progress of the tourism as an object, and the acknowledgement of its importance by the

government had accelerated the study of tourism, although often in an ad-hoc and unplanned manner. Tourism

has now its own academic community, magazines, the support of the professional societies and an increasing

number of books. As far as this growth increases a series of new classes in tourism, the educators in tourism is

confronted with severe problems, and is concerned by the quality and the distribution of classes in tourism, the

standards of the involved personnel. First of all, the aria of study itself presents a major handicap, influenced by

the weaknesses and the conceptual fragmentations. Hence the educators are dealing with many questions which

in other subjects would be on mutual ground. This happens just because there isn’t a general agreement on the

definition of tourism or on what the industry of tourism contains. This leads to a number of different industrial

sectors and academic subjects, reinforcing the needs of a disciplined approach. Also it points out the problems

with the data sources both of comparability and also of quality. Great part of the activity of tourism is relatively

recently developed, and only of a few time it was considered it is worth a serious business effort or an academic

study. As a consequence, the subject lacks the antecedents of a mature domain, and the educational and

intellectual infrastructure is only now arranged. The diversity and the quality of services are the main factors of

competitiveness and, thus, and also the fundamental problems with which is confronted the industry of tourism

in general and the international receptor tourism in particular. On these two essential aspects depends, last of all,

the stagnation or the regression of the entire future touristic activity.

Bibliography

Chris Cooper, Eduardo Fayos-Sola, Donaldo Hawkins, Sheryl Spivack (1997) An introducing to TEQUAL-A

methodology for quality in tourism education and training, WTO Tourism Education and Training Series

Chris Cooper, Rebecca Shepherd, John Westlake, (1996) Education and educators in tourism: A manual of

tourism and hospitality education, WTO Tourism and Training Series, 1996

C Cristureanu, (2002) The economy and the politic of international tourism, Abeona, Bucharest

J. Christopher Holloway (2002)-“The Bussiness of Tourism”-sixth edition, Pearson Education, London

The National Institute of Research-Development in tourism, Romania, (2002) Present problems of the demand of

working force from the Romanian tourism in the context of the European Union adherence-Phase I

I. Ionescu, V. Ionascu, M. Popescu, (2002) The economy of tourism and commerce enterprise, Uranus,

Bucharest

R. Minciu, (2001) Tourism economy, Uranus, Bucharest

O. Snak, P. Baron, N. Neacsu, (2005) Tourism economy, Expert, Bucharest

Romanian Regional Policy in the Context of the New Pattern of European Union

Gabriela Marchis

University Lecturer, PhD. in Progress

Danubius University of Galati

Abstract:

The critical consequences over the interregional disparities at EU level due to the complexity

of the European economic integration process may be attenuated only by some adequate measures

of regional policy. Researchers like: Fujita, Krugman and Venable, demonstrate that: “the economies

of different states are characterized by heterogeneity and, as a consequence, the economic relation

among them, needs to be viewed in the context of diversity” („New Economic Geography”, 1999).

Thus, it is recommended that regional instruments ensemble to serve the national economic

policy of each member state of EU, in the sight of reducing the existing inequalities between EU

citizens’ standards of living. On the other hand, the process of European integration, by removing the

commercial obstacles, ensuring the free movement of production factors and by the eliminating the

state aids procedures, is contributing to stumping the boundary line among member states; this idea

being emphasised by Krugman in 1991, when he demonstrated that “the more unified is the European

market, the much higher is the mobility of capital or labour factor and there is no point in approaching

trade relations among member states in terms of international trade, rather that dealing with

interregional trade”.

In this context, “developing the regional policy in an enlarged Union may not be viewed only

by national perspective, without taking into consideration the existing connections among national

regional politics, European regional policy and the EU competition policy” (Batchler J. Wishlade F.,

Yuill D., 2003).

This paper intends to reveal the dynamics of European integration process, revealing the main

effect of this process, economic divergence (Mangrini, 1999) or economic convergence (Krugman,

1991; Romer 1986 and 1990). The Romanian regional policy is presented in relation with European

Union regional policy, in the perspective of catching-up process, the modernisation on the whole

economy, through a mimetic behaviour.

Regional convergence between Romania and EU implies an extensive jump from the existing

status of “poor” country of the community (the Nord-Est region – RO21 has the lowest level of

GDP/inhabitant, being the poorest region of EU) through the EU medium level of welfare. This may be

achieved only when Romania will learn the European lesson, that “the integration can’t be a substitute

for a strategy of economic development” (Rodrik, 2000).

Integrarea economică în Uniunea Europeană poate fi abordată din 3 perspective (Pelkmans,

2006): „adâncirea (liberalizare economică; politici şi reguli comune; obligaţii şi restricţii pentru statele

membre), lărgirea (în domeniul economic şi a celorlalte puteri) şi extinderea (prin aderarea noilor

state)”. Trebuie însă subliniat faptul că dezvoltarea rapidă a Uniunii Europene a condus la o serie de

inadvertenţe de natură economică şi/sau politică între adâncire şi lărgire, precum şi între adâncire şi

extindere. O analiză atentă a istoriei Uniunii Europene arată o evoluţie ciclică, caracterizată de

succesive suişuri şi coborâşuri, perioadele de boom alternând cu cele de criză, această evoluţie fiind

generată de faptul că integrarea politică a fost prioritară integrării economice.

Figura nr.1 Procesul de integrare economică în U.E. – abordarea trivalentă

De asemenea, fragilitatea stadiilor de integrare generată de complexitatea evoluţiei istorice a

Uniunii Europene, a făcut ca adâncirea, lărgirea şi extinderea, ca forme de manifestare a procesului

de integrare economică, să nu se poată realiza simultan, permanent şi la acelaşi nivel de intensitate.

Astfel, abordarea trivalentă a procesului de integrare europeană poate fi rezumată astfel:

•Adâncirea U.E. s-a manifestat în diferite moduri: cele 5 revizuiri ai Tratatului CEE1; realizarea uniunii

vamale depline; evoluţia istorică a deciziilor Curţii Europene privind integrarea economică;

•Lărgirea este un fenomen recurent în istoria U.E., în special în ceea ce priveşte regulile şi politicile

economice şi poate fi exemplificată prin: Politica Agricolă Comună; Uniunea Economică şi Monetară;

Politica în domeniul transporturilor, Politica în domeniul cercetării şi dezvoltării tehnologice, Acordul

Schengen, Carta Socială Europeană, etc.;

•Extinderea a creat importante reacţii în viaţa social-economică a U.E., reprezentând întotdeauna o

adevărată provocare în realizarea obiectivului fundamental de coeziune economică şi socială, fiind

elementul promotor al reformelor în cadrul U.E..

„Politica de coeziune poate fi privită ca un instrument de adâncire a integrării, care este nu

numai un proiect economic, dar şi unul social, cultural şi politic” (Popescu, 2007). Coeziunea

economică-socială reprezintă o componentă de bază a modelului european de dezvoltare economică

şi socială, alături de creşterea economică şi de libertatea politică. Prin urmare, modelul european se

prezintă ca „un întreg care vrea să difuzeze prosperitatea dinspre nucleul dur către zonele emergente”

(Marin et al., 2004)

Evoluţia politicii de coeziune poate fi explicată însă, în corelaţie cu procesul de extindere al

Uniunii Europene. Astfel, în 1973, odată cu aderarea Regatului Unit la U.E. am putea spune că a

început dezvoltarea treptată a politicii europene de coeziune, Regatul Unit fiind statul care a susţinut

crearea Fondului European de Dezvoltare Regională, fapt materializat doi ani mai târziu, în 1975.

Importanţa politicii de coeziune pe agenda U.E. s-a accentuat odată cu aderarea Greciei (1980), apoi

a Spaniei şi Portugaliei, în 1986, într-un moment în care procesul de adâncire a U.E., ar fi putut

periclita, chiar de la început, poziţia regiunilor mai slab dezvoltate în competiţia de pe piaţa unică

1 Actul Unic European (1986); Tratatul de la Maastricht (1993); Tratatul de la Amsterdam (1999), Tratatul de la Nice (2000), Tratatul de la Lisabona (2007).

EXTINDERE

ADÂNCIRE LĂRGIRE

europeană. „Semnarea Tratatului de la Maastricht consolidează legătura dintre adâncirea integrării

economice şi coeziunea economică şi socială […] coeziunea, fiind privită ca unul dintre cele trei

obiective majore ale U.E., alături de Piaţa Unică şi Uniunea Economică şi Monetară” (Popescu, 2007).

De asemenea, extinderea spre est a Uniunii Europene din 2004, precum şi cel de-al doilea val al

extinderii, din 2007, au condus la o restructurare drastică a strategiei europene de coeziune, care nu

se transpune doar într-o simplă remaniere a fondurilor. „Coeziunea regională şi procesul de integrare

europeană sunt două feţe ale aceleiaşi monede” (Martinico, 2007)

Literatura de specialitate oferă semnale confuze în ceea ce priveşte convergenţa reală la

nivelul U.E.. Ritmurile inegale de creştere a activităţii economice ce caracterizează statele membre

U.E., precum şi diferenţele existente între diferitele regiuni în ceea ce priveşte condiţiile economice,

sociale şi geografice au condus la apariţia unor importante disparităţi regionale ale PIB-ului/locuitor,

ale productivităţii muncii şi al gradului de ocupare al forţei de muncă, atât în interiorul unui stat

membru, cât şi la nivel interstatal. Prin urmare, pe de o parte se poate observa o convergenţă reală

între statele membre, dar, pe de altă parte, la nivel regional, se poate constata o creştere a

disparităţilor, regiunile mai slab dezvoltate fie că nu reuşesc să ajungă din urmă regiunile dezvoltate,

fie că înregistrează întârzieri în procesul de dezvoltare şi chiar rămâneri în urmă.

Alături de cele trei procese fundamentale ale construcţiei europene – adâncirea, lărgirea şi

extinderea – integrarea include şi un alt set de procese, de aderare, care vizează adoptarea

progresivă a modelului specific U.E. de către statele candidate. Îndeplinirea „criteriilor de la

Copenhaga” (1993), care definesc condiţiile necesare realizării unei convergenţe reale, structurale, a

economiilor din estul şi centrul Europei, reprezintă de fapt procesul de compatibilizare a unui stat

candidat cu standardele specifice Uniunii Europene. „Convergenţa reală defineşte procesul de

ajustare a structurilor economice şi de construire a cadrului instituţional şi legal.” (Mooslechner, 2003)

Cel mai frecvent, convergenţa reală este abordată în strânsă legătură cu nivelul de dezvoltare

economică. Cu alte cuvinte, se referă la procesul de „catching-up”2 a ţărilor sărace, în ceea ce priveşte

nivelul veniturilor pe cap de locuitor, către un nivel ţintă, stabilit în comparaţie cu o ţară de referinţă

sau calculat ca medie a veniturilor per locuitori în diferite ţări. Dar procesul de „catching-up” nu se

realizează automat, el depinde în mare măsură de ritmul reformelor economice, de implementarea

acquis-ului comunitar precum şi de nivelul dezvoltării economice.

Unii autori susţin că nu se poate vorbi la nivelul U.E. de convergenţă reală şi nici de

divergenţă, ci doar de o convergenţă a ratelor de creştere economică a statelor membre, convergenţă

ce exclude ideea de „catching-up” a regiunilor slab dezvoltate.

Există şi opinii potrivit cărora convergenţa este determinată şi accelerată de procesul de

difuziune spaţială a tehnologiilor, a capitalului, a investiţiilor străine, a informaţiilor şi a factorului

muncă, precum şi de comerţului internaţional. (Sala-i-Martin, 2003).

Extinderea Uniunii Europene la 27 de membrii a condus nu numai la mărirea disparităţilor

economice între regiunile Uniunii ci şi la apariţia unui nou model de distribuţie teritorială a bunăstării.

Astfel, noii poli de creştere economică sunt reprezentaţi de Dublin, Madrid, Helsinki şi Stocholm,

precum şi de Varşovia, Praga, Bratislava şi Budapesta.

2 Termen provenit din limba engleză: „ajungere din urmă”.

Conform celui de-al Patrulea Raport privind Coeziunea Economică şi Socială (2007),

suprafaţa Uniunii Europene, ca urmare a aderării României şi Bulgariei, s-a mărit cu aproximativ 8,6%,

populaţia a crescut cu peste 6,3%, în timp ce, PIB-ul/locuitor, măsurat la paritatea puterii de

cumpărare, a scăzut cu aproape 4%. Inegalităţile regionale au evoluat, astfel încât raportul dintre cele

mai dezvoltate şi cele mai sărace regiuni ale Uniunii s-a modificat permanent, de la 5 în UE-15, la 9 în

UE-25 şi la 8 pentru UE-27. Centrul de gravitaţie al politicii de coeziune economică s-a deplasat astfel

înspre Europa de Est. În ceea ce priveşte problema convergenţei reale, raportul arătă că principalii

beneficiari ai politicii de coeziune – Grecia, Spania, Irlanda şi Portugalia – au înregistrat în perioada

1994 – 2006 o dezvoltare economică impresionantă. Noile state membre, în special cele cu un nivel

redus al PIB/locuitor au înregistrat o creştere economică rapidă, procesul de „catching-up” fiind

evident, iar cele 3 state baltice aproape şi-au dublat PIB-ul/locuitor în perioada 1995 – 2005.

Menţinând acelaşi trend, se preconizează că în aproximativ 15 – 20 ani, Polonia, România şi Bulgaria

vor reuşi să atingă un nivel al PIB/locuitor de 75% din media U.E..

De asemenea, PIB-ul/locuitor la nivelul U.E.-27 a înregistrat o creştere de până 4% în

perioada 1995-2000, pentru ca mai apoi, în perioada 2001-2003, să înregistreze o încetinire a ritmului

de creştere, de până la 1%. O redresare economică firavă s-a înregistrat în perioada 2004-2005, când

creşterea PIB/locuitor a crescut la 1,9%, respectiv 1,3%.

Figura nr.2 Creşterea anuală a PIB/locuitor în perioada 1996-2005

Sursa: Adaptare după European Commission (2007) „Growing Regions, growing Europe”, Fourth

Report Economic and Social Cohesion, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,

Luxembourg.

În acest context, rămâne esenţial rolul politicii de coeziune în realizarea dezvoltării echilibrate

şi echitabile a regiunilor U.E. şi, în special, în reducerea disparităţilor la un nivel cât mai acceptabil

într-o perioadă rezonabilă de timp.

Politica de dezvoltare regională a României a prins contur în cadrul procesului de pregătire în

vederea gestionării fondurilor comunitare aferente statelor candidate, în cadrul negocierilor de

aderare. Procesul de asociere în vederea integrării României în Uniunea Europeană s-a desfăşurat

într-un cadru instituţionalizat, începând cu data de 1 februarie 1993, data semnării Acordului de

Asociere a ţării noastre la Uniunea Europeană (Acordul European)3. La 22 iunie 1995, România şi-a

depus în mod oficial candidatura pentru aderare iar, în luna decembrie a aceluiaşi an, ţara noastră a

prezentat o strategie detaliată cu privire la adoptarea acquis-ului comunitar, prima evaluare a

îndeplinirii criteriilor de aderare fiind făcută de U.E. în Agenda 2000 – document adoptat în iulie 1997.

Un moment important în cadrul relaţiilor România – U.E. este reprezentat de Consiliul European de la

Helsinki, din decembrie 1999, când a fost adoptată decizia de începere a negocierilor de aderare cu

ţara noastră, proces demarat la 15 februarie 2000 şi încheiat oficial la 17 decembrie 2004 cu ocazia

Consiliului European de la Bruxelles. Semnarea Tratatului de Aderare dintre Uniunea Europeană şi

România s-a desfăşurat la 25 aprilie 2005, prilej prin care Comisarul European pentru Extindere Olli

Rehn a declarat: „Semnarea Tratatului de Aderare este un bine meritat moment de sărbătoare dar nu

şi sfârşitul procesului. Mai este nevoie de muncă susţinută pentru continuarea reformelor şi

implementarea lor până la data planificată de aderare de 1 ianuarie 2007.”

În acest context, se poate spune că politica de dezvoltare regională a României are o istorie

relativ recentă, anul 1998 marcând instituirea cadrului legal al politicii de dezvoltare regională din

România prin Legea nr.151/19984, care stabileşte obiectivele, instituţiile implicate şi instrumentele

specifice promovării politicii naţionale de dezvoltare regională. Potrivit Normelor metodologice de

aplicare a acestei legi5, dezvoltarea regională în România este definită ca fiind „ansamblul politicilor

autorităţilor administraţiei publice centrale şi locale, elaborate în scopul îmbunătăţirii performanţelor

economice ale unor arii geografice constituite în regiuni de dezvoltare şi care beneficiază de sprijinul

guvernului, al Uniunii Europene şi al altor instituţii şi autorităţi naţionale şi internaţionale interesate”.

Capitolul de negociere aferent politicii naţionale în domeniu – capitolul 21 (Politica regională şi

coordonarea instrumentelor structurale) a fost deschis în martie 2002 şi stabileşte acquis-ul comunitar

de dezvoltare regională şi modalităţile de implementare a acestuia. Negocierile au fost închise în

septembrie 2004.

Obiectivele generale ale politicii naţionale de dezvoltare regională se referă la: diminuarea

dezechilibrelor regionale existente; stimularea dezvoltării echilibrate; revitalizarea zonelor

defavorizate; prevenirea producerii de noi dezechilibre; pregătirea cadrului instituţional pentru a

răspunde criteriilor de integrare în structurile U.E. şi pentru accesarea Fondurilor Structurale şi a

Fondului de Coeziune; integrarea politicilor sectoriale la nivel regional şi stimularea cooperării

interregionale interne şi internaţionale care contribuie la progresul economic şi social.

Obiectivele de bază ale politicii de dezvoltare regională sunt stipulate de articolul 3 al Legii

nr.315/2004 privind dezvoltarea regională în România:

diminuarea dezechilibrelor regionale existente prin stimularea dezvoltării echilibrate, recuperarea

accelerată a întârzierilor în domeniul economic şi social a zonelor mai puţin dezvoltate, ca urmare a

unor condiţii istorice, geografice, economice, sociale, politice, precum şi preîntâmpinarea producerii de

noi dezechilibre (art.3-a);

3 Acordul de Asociere a Românie la Uniunea Europeană a intrat în vigoare 2 ani mai târziu, la data de 1 februarie 1995.4 Odată cu intrarea în vigoare a Legii nr.315/ 28 iunie 2004 (MO nr.577/ 29 iunie 2004), această lege a fost abrogată.5 H.G. nr.634/1998.

corelarea politicilor sectoriale guvernamentale la nivelul regiunilor prin stimularea iniţiativelor şi

prin valorificarea resurselor locale şi regionale, în scopul dezvoltării economico-sociale durabile şi al

dezvoltării culturale a acestora (art.3-b);

stimularea cooperării interregionale, interne şi internaţionale, transfrontaliere, inclusiv în cadrul

euroregiunilor, precum şi participarea regiunilor de dezvoltare la structurile şi organizaţiile europene

care promovează dezvoltarea economico-socială şi instituţională a acestora, în scopul realizării unor

proiecte de interes comun, în conformitate cu acordurile internaţionale la care România este parte

(art.3-c).

Cadrul instituţional al dezvoltării regionale în România a fost pentru prima dată creat de Legea

nr.151/1998 privind dezvoltarea regională în România. Modificările şi adaptările ulterioare privind

instituţii active în domeniul dezvoltării regionale sunt cuprinse în Legea nr.315/2004 privind

dezvoltarea regională în România. Conform legislaţiei în vigoare structurile instituţionale necesare

elaborării şi implementării unei politici integrate de dezvoltare regională funcţionează pe două nivele:

regional şi naţional. La nivel teritorial, fiecare regiune de dezvoltare are un Consiliu de Dezvoltare

Regională (C.D.R.) şi o Agenţie de Dezvoltare Regională (A.D.R.), iar la nivel naţional cadrul

instituţional creat pentru coordonarea elaborării şi implementării politicilor regionale este constituit din

Consiliul Naţional pentru Dezvoltare Regională şi Ministerul Dezvoltării Lucrărilor Publice şi

Locuinţelor.

România, ţară fără tradiţie în domeniul dezvoltării regionale, a fost nevoită să preia şi să

adapteze continuu instrumentele specifice politicii regionale în conformitate cu cerinţele europene. În

urma investigaţiilor efectuate, putem afirma că instrumentele politicii de dezvoltare regională active în

perimetrul românesc se referă la:

• „stimulente negative” faţă de localizarea în zonele aglomerate şi relocalizarea activităţilor în

teritoriul naţional – acest tip de instrumente s-a aplicat cu precădere în Marea Britanie, Franţa,

Germania, Grecia şi Italia dar, în prezent, şi-a redus semnificativ importanţa, fie datorită reducerii

inegalităţilor între nivelul de dezvoltare al marilor metropole şi al regiunilor înconjurătoare, fie ca

urmare a privatizărilor pe scară largă a întreprinderilor de stat, fapt ce a condus la scăderea

influenţei guvernelor.

• crearea infrastructurilor adecvate dezvoltării regionale – acest instrument a dobândit în timp o

importanţă din ce în ce mai mare, mai ales în perspectiva aderării la Uniunea Europeană. Pentru

adoptarea acquis-ului comunitar ţara noastră a primit asistenţă tehnică şi financiară de la diferite

organisme internaţionale pentru crearea şi dezvoltarea sistemelor informaţionale, educaţionale, de

consultanţă şi de formare profesională, a sistemelor de cercetare ştiinţifică şi de dezvoltare

tehnologică, această asistenţă având ca obiectiv prioritar revitalizarea mediului de afaceri

românesc.

• stimulente financiare pentru dezvoltarea armonioasă a regiunii – acest tip de instrumente are

drept scop atragerea investiţiilor productive, creşterea gradului de ocupare a forţei de muncă,

dezvoltarea echilibrată a regiunii, etc. şi se prezintă sub forma grant-urilor, subvenţiilor, reducerii şi

scutirilor de taxe, facilităţilor pentru amortizarea capitalului fix, precum şi a ajutoarelor financiare

nerambursabile din fondurile europene, a creditelor de la instituţiile financiare internaţionale, a

asistenţei financiare din bugetele locale şi din fondurile private. Un caz particular al stimulentelor

financiare privind dezvoltarea regională armonioasă, îl reprezintă ajutorul de stat.6 Începând din

ianuarie 2007, autorizarea ajutoarelor de stat se face exclusiv de către Comisia Europeană,

Consiliul Concurenţei îndeplinind doar rolul de autoritate de contact în raporturile dintre Comisia

Europeană şi autorităţile şi instituţiile publice naţionale, furnizori şi beneficiari implicaţi în

procedurile din domeniul ajutorului de stat.

Cadrul arhitectonic al instrumentelor de politică regională care au avut impact asupra

dezvoltării şi pregătirii României pentru a adopta modelul european este reprezentat de: programele

Fondului Monetar Internaţional şi ale Băncii Mondiale privind privatizările şi reformele structurale;

facilităţile de leasing şi de micro-creditare a I.M.M.-urilor prin programele Băncii Europene de

Reconstrucţie şi Dezvoltare (U.E.-BERD şi U.S.-BERD) precum şi prin Banca de Micro-finanţare a

României; programele Băncii Europene de Investiţii în domenii precum: transporturi (drumuri,

aeroporturi, căi ferate), energie, protecţia mediului şi dezvoltarea I.M.M.-urilor; asistenţă specializată

prin intermediul F.M.I. în domenii cheie precum: modernizarea sistemului bancar, îmbunătăţirea

modului de colectare şi raportare a datelor statistice, reforma administraţiei fiscale; asistenţa

multilaterală acordată României prin diferitele instrumente active la nivel european: instrumente

financiare, asistenţă tehnică, etc.; programele multianuale de dezvoltare regională finanţate prin

Fondul Naţional de Dezvoltare Regională, constituit din sumele care se alocă anual prin bugetul de

stat ca poziţie distinctă pentru politica de dezvoltare regională.

Implementarea politicii regionale europene se realizează, în principal, prin intermediul

instrumentelor de programare, care au drept scop transpunerea în practică a strategiilor de dezvoltare

economico-sociale şi activarea instrumentelor financiare europene în vederea maximizării beneficiilor

aduse de politicile europene de coeziune, în sinergie cu cele naţionale. Urmând modelul european, pe

baza documentelor de programare se stabilesc priorităţile naţionale de dezvoltare, în principal

compatibile cu domeniile de intervenţie a instrumentelor structurale. Finanţarea politicii de dezvoltare

regională în România se află într-o perioadă de mari schimbări şi transformări, deoarece se realizează

tranziţia de la instrumentele de preaderare, specifice unei perioade de programare (2000-2006), la

instrumentele structurale aferente altei perioade de programare (2007-2013), care funcţionează după

reguli cu totul noi.

6 În contextul negocierilor de aderare privind Capitolul 6 (Politica în domeniul concurenţei), România a declarat ca acceptă întreg acquis-ul comunitar în vigoare şi că nu solicită nici un fel de perioade de tranziţie sau derogări. Cea mai importantă dispoziţie legislativă în domeniul controlului şi monitorizării ajutoarelor de stat în România este Legea nr.137/2007 (Monitorul Oficial nr.354/ 24 mai 2007), care aprobă Ordonanţa de Urgenţă a Guvernului nr. 117 din 2006 privind procedurile naţionale în domeniul ajutorului de stat (Monitorul Oficial nr.1042/ 28 decembrie 2006) care, la rândul ei, abrogă Legea nr.143/1999 privind ajutorul de stat (Monitorul Oficial nr.370/3 august 1999). De asemenea, Consiliul Concurenţei a adoptat Regulamentul privind abrogarea unor regulamente şi instrucţiuni adoptate de Consiliul Concurenţei în domeniul ajutorului de stat (Monitorul Oficial nr.1057/ 30 decembrie 2006) astfel încât legislaţia internă să devină compatibilă cu legislaţia comunitară în domeniu.

Tabelul nr.1 România – instrumente financiare ale politicii de dezvoltare regională

200

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Instrumente de pre-aderarePhare, Ispa, Sapard

Facilitatea de Tranziţie

Instrumente post-aderare: F.E.D.E.R., F.C..

În concluzie, aplicarea politicii naţionale de dezvoltare regională se realizează în concordanţă

cu obiectivele şi priorităţile generale de dezvoltare ale României, precum şi cu obiectivele Uniunii

Europene în domeniul coeziunii economice şi sociale, România situându-se într-o perioadă de

asimilare a modelului european. Viteza de înţelegere deplină, adaptare şi implementare a modelului

european determină ritmul de convergenţă reală între România şi Uniunea Europeană.

BIBLIOGRAFIE:

1. Bachtler J., Wishlade F., Yuill (2003) Regional Policies after 2006: Complementary or Conflict, European Policy Research Centre, Glasgow, United Kingdom.

2. Bachtler J. (2000) “Regional policy in Europe. Which way forward?” în: Coffey, P. (ed.), Europe – Toward the Next Enlargement, International Handbooks on Economic Integration, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston/Dordrecht/London.

3. Ionescu R.V., Marchis G. (2006) Teoria integrării economic comunitare, Editura Fundaţiei Academice Danubius Galaţi.

4. Ionescu R.V., Marchis G. (2006) UNIUNEA EUROPEANĂ – prezent şi perspective - TRATAT, Editura Didactică şi Pedagogică, Bucureşti.

5. Marin D., Socol C., Marinaş M. (2004) Economie europeană: o prezentare sinoptică, editura Economică, Bucureşti.

6. Martinico G. (2007) “The impact of the cohesion policies on the “Form of Union”: for a constitutional language of the “integrative” regionalism” in Regions in Focus?, Regional studies Association, Lisbon, Portugal, 2nd – 5th April.

7. Mooslechner P. (2003) „Some remarks on ‘How to balance real and nominal convergence’: an introductory statement” în în Tumpel Gugerell G., Mooslechner P. (eds) Economic Convergence and Divergence in Europe: Growth and Regional Development in an Enlarged European Union, Edward Elgar Publishing.

8. Popescu Gh. H. (2007) Economie europeană, Editura Economică, Bucureşti.

9. Sala-i-Martin X. (2003) „Convergence and divergence – theoretical underpinnings” în Tumpel Gugerell G., Mooslechner P. (eds) Economic Convergence and Divergence in Europe: Growth and Regional Development in an Enlarged European Union, Edward Elgar Publishing.

COMMUNICATION IN BANKING INDUSTRY

Lector Dr. Laura POPA – Spiru Haret University, 5 Turnului St., Brasov

Conf. Dr. Camelia STEFANESCU - Spiru Haret University, 5 Turnului St., Brasov

Abstract Technology is having a major impact on the banking industry. For example, many routine bank

services that once required a teller, such as making a withdrawal or deposit, are now available through

ATMs that allow people to access their accounts 24 hours a day. Also, direct deposit allows companies

and governments to electronically transfer payments into various accounts. There are a number of skills

that successful commercial banking professionals possess. The most important skills are fundamental

business and communication skills. To excel in the banking industry, each banker must be able to interact

professionally with a wide range of business organizations. The ability to effectively communicate to

customers is essential because as a banker, you are the key to their loan, their investments, their money,

and their peace of mind.

KEYWORDS: communication, satisfaction, customer

1. NATURE OF BANKING INDUSTRY

Banks safeguard money and valuables and provide loans, credit, and payment services, such as

checking accounts, money orders, and cashier’s checks. With the passage of the Financial Modernization

Act in 1999, banks also may offer investment and insurance products, which they were once prohibited

from selling. As a variety of models for cooperation and integration between the financial services

industries have emerged, some of the traditional distinctions between banks, insurance companies, and

securities firms have diminished. In spite of these changes, banks continue to maintain and perform their

primary role in the financial system—accepting deposits and lending funds from these deposits.

There are several types of banks, which differ in the number of services they provide and the

clientele they serve. Although some of the differences between these types of banks have lessened as

they begin to expand the range of products and services they offer, there are still key distinguishing traits.

Commercial banks, which dominate this industry, offer a full range of services for individuals, businesses,

and governments. These banks come in a wide range of sizes, from large global banks to regional and

community banks. Global banks are involved in international lending and foreign currency trading, in

addition to the more typical banking services. Regional banks have numerous branches and automated

teller machine (ATM) locations throughout a multi-state area that provide banking services to individuals.

Community banks are based locally and offer more personal attention, which many individuals and small

businesses prefer. In recent years, online banks—which provide all services entirely over the Internet—

have entered the market, with some success. However, many traditional banks have also expanded to

offer online banking, and some formerly Internet-only banks are opting to open branches. Savings banks

and savings and loan associations, sometimes called thrift institutions, are the second largest group of

depository institutions. They were first established as community-based institutions to finance mortgages

for people to buy homes and still cater mostly to the savings and lending needs of individuals. Credit

unions are another kind of depository institution. Most credit unions are formed by people with a common

bond, such as those who work for the same company or belong to the same labor union or church.

Members pool their savings and, when they need money, they may borrow from the credit union, often at

a lower interest rate than that demanded by other financial institutions. Federal Reserve banks are

Government agencies that perform many financial services for the Government. Their chief

responsibilities are to regulate the banking industry and to control the Nation’s money supply—the total

quantity of money in the country, including cash and bank deposits. Federal Reserve banks also perform

a variety of services for other banks. For example, they make emergency loans to banks that are short of

cash and clear checks that are drawn and paid out by different banks.

Interest on loans is the principal source of revenue for most banks, making their various lending

departments critical to their success. The commercial lending department loans money to companies to

start or expand a business or to purchase inventory and capital equipment. The consumer lending

department handles student loans, credit cards, and loans for home improvements, debt consolidation,

and automobile purchases. Finally, the mortgage lending department loans money to individuals and

businesses to purchase real estate. The money to lend comes primarily from deposits in checking and

savings accounts, certificates of deposit, money market accounts, and other deposit accounts that

consumers and businesses set up with the bank. These deposits often earn interest for the owner, and

accounts that offer checking provide an easy method for making payments safely without using cash.

Deposits in many banks are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which ensures that

depositors will get their money back, up to a stated limit, if a bank should fail.

2. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

Technology is having a major impact on the banking industry. For example, many routine bank

services that once required a teller, such as making a withdrawal or deposit, are now available through

ATMs that allow people to access their accounts 24 hours a day. Also, direct deposit allows companies

and governments to electronically transfer payments into various accounts. Further, debit cards, which

oftentimes double as ATM cards, instantaneously deduct money from an account when the card is swiped

across a machine at a store’s cash register. Electronic banking by phone or computer allows customers to

pay bills and transfer money from one account to another. Through these channels, bank customers can

also access information such as account balances and statement history. Some banks have begun

offering online account aggregation, which makes available in one place detailed and up-to date

information on a customer’s accounts held at various different institutions. Advancements in technology

have also led to improvements in the ways in which banks process information. Use of check imaging,

which allows banks to store photographed checks on the computer, is one such example that has recently

been implemented by some banks. Other types of technology have greatly impacted the lending side of

banking., For example, the availability and growing use of credit scoring software allows loans to be

approved in minutes—rather than days—making lending departments more efficient. Other fundamental

changes are occurring in the industry as banks diversify their services to become more competitive. Many

banks now offer their customers financial planning and asset management services, as well as brokerage

and insurance services, often through a subsidiary or third party. Others are beginning to provide

investment banking services that help companies and governments raise money through the issuance of

stocks and bonds, also usually through a subsidiary. As banks respond to deregulation and as

competition in this sector grows, the nature of the banking industry will continue to undergo significant

change.Working conditions also vary according to where the employee works. Employees in a typical

branch work weekdays, some evenings if the bank is open late, and Saturday mornings. Hours may be

longer for workers in bank branches located in grocery stores and shopping malls, which are open most

evenings and weekends. Branch office jobs, particularly teller positions, require continual communication

with customers, repetitive tasks, and a high level of attention to security. Tellers also must stand for long

periods in a confined space. To improve customer service and provide greater access to bank personnel,

banks are establishing centralized phone centers, staffed mainly by customer service representatives.

Employees of phone centers spend most of their time answering phone calls from customers and must be

available to work evening and weekend shifts.

3. FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS AND COMMUNICATION SKILLS FOR BANKING PROFESSIONALS

There are a number of skills that successful commercial banking professionals possess. The most

important skills are fundamental business and communication skills. To excel in the banking industry,

each banker must be able to interact professionally with a wide range of business organizations. The

ability to effectively communicate to customers is essential because as a banker, you are the key to their

loan, their investments, their money, and their peace of mind. In recent years, the banking industry has

evolved dramatically, driven by changes in the business and economic environment, in legislation, in

competitive pressures and in enabling technologies. With a wide variety of products, such as credit card,

mortgages, home equities, lines of credit, savings and checking accounts, insurance and investment

products, banks need to anticipate and satisfy the changing needs of their customers. In addition,

financial institutions need to be able to estimate and review risk and compliance with regulations such as

Basel II and mandatory capital requirements. More than ever, banks need better understanding of key

indicators and best practices for decision making in all areas of operations, including:

• Customer acquisition and retention

• Sales and service improvement

• Pricing and ROI analysis

• Risk management and fraud prevention

• Financial flow, valuation and forecasting

• Regulatory control and compliance.

In today’s demanding marketplace, leading financial institutions have no way to differentiate

themselves except by taking advantage of the information locked up in their enormous volumes of data

from transactions, daily operations and demographics. Timely analysis of this data will help these

enterprises manage all facets of customer interaction, investment, risk, regulation, and asset evoluation to

enhance customer experience and increase profitability. Modern financial insitutions have long used

predictive modelling to generate lists for direct mail, e-mail and telephone campaigns. But only a fraction

of business questions were modeled because traditional tools are slow, expensive and unreliable in the

hands of business users. With state-of-the art analityc technology, marketing departments can identify all

underserved market segments and create, test and lauch highly targeted product and service offerings for

small groups of customers and prospects. Shifting from product-centric to customer-centric thought

processes, leading banks are now able to design and recommend products that deliver the right solution

to the right customer at the right time.

Culture is a funny thing. It is one of those words that we use daily, and yet whose precise

meaning is not generally well understood. In organisational terms, it is impossible to separate culture from

structure. Each is the reflection of the other, although the cultural characteristics will tend to determine the

structure. Organisational culture is the pattern of shared values, beliefs, attitudes, assumptions and norms

that are reflected in the daily behaviours of the company’s members. A more simple definition is “The way we do things around here”.The way we behave, make decisions, furnish offices, give rewards,

approach teamwork, communicate, dress, eat, value (or not) our customers, the list is endless. It is worth

pointing out at the outset that there is often a significant difference between what the organisation

espouses as its culture, and how it actually behaves. A good example of this can be seen with the core

values that Raiffeisen Bank tried to communicate and promote in a recent campaign. “Your satisfaction is our first priority”. This value statement was meant to demonstrate the company’s commitment to

customer service, and to provide the staff with a unifying mission that would guide their attitudes and

behaviours. Organisational culture is the pattern of basic assumptions that a given group has invented,

discovered or developed in learning to cope with its problems of external adaption and internal

integration, and that have worked well enough to be considered valid, and, therefore, to be taught to new

members as the correct way to perceive, think and feel in relation to those problems.

Culture is a key component in the achievement of the organisations’s mission and strategies, the

improvement of organisational effectiveness and the management of change. The significance of culture

arises because it is rooted in deeply held beliefs. It reflects what has worked in the past, and shows itself

in behaviours that have been accepted because they have met with success. The problem is that deeply

held beliefs are very difficult to change, and just because they worked well in the past, does not mean that

they will do sa in the future. In fact, it is indisputable that the challenges of today and the future cannot be

effectively met by yesterday’s solutions. This was postulated by none oher than Albert Einstein. Thus,

culture most be dynamic and able to adapt to changing conditions. If it is not, it can work against an

organisation by erecting barriers which prevent the achievement of corporate strategies.

The components of organisational culture are: values, attitudes, assumptions and behaviour.

Values refer to what is regarded as important to the organisation. They influence the beliefs, assumptions

and attitudes of the members, which in turn influence behaviour. High performance organisations

recognise the importance of shared values as the most effective way to translate mission, vision and

strategy into effective organisational performance. Exemples of areas in which values can be expresses

might be: customer care, the level of entreprise/initiative expected from staff, the expectations regarding

obedience and loyalty, equity in the treatment of employees, excellence and quality, growth, innovation,

productivity, social responsibility, teamwork. The important thing is that values can and do change. What

individuals regard as important changes sometimes during their lives, in response to their changing

circumstances. It is the same with organisations. Typically, customers and their satisfaction have not be

seen as the number one priority in many organisations in different sectors around the world. However, as

more and more companies focus on customer satisfaction, it increases the pressure of other companies

to do the same, or suffer the inevitable consequences. This means fostering and nurturing the values that

support a customer orientation.

The attitudes and assumptions of the members of the organisation will reflect the underlying

values and will determine their daily behaviour. They are manifested in one’s general approach to life in

the organisation. For example, if a company does not place a high level of importance to building teams,

and tends to reward individual performance and not that of the team, then it is very likely that individuals

will have a negative attitude to working together as a team.

Most organisations would want their staff to treat customers with respect, to take more initiative,

to work effectively in teams, to improve the quality of their services and to work towards increasing their

productivity. Traditionally, this has been achieved in a confrontational way, based on inherent power

differences between workers and management and the use of hierarchical authority. These days

however, it is increasingly recognised that the key to improved performance and getting workers to

identify with the organisation’s mission, goals and strategies lies in the ability of management to motivate

the staff, so that they behave in the desired way willingly.

Knowing what your customers really need is the key to providing high quality customer service.

Being accessible, listening to concerns and resolving problems are fundamental when building customer

loyalty. I suggest to define service as followed:

Sorry if something goes wrong, we apologize for the inconvenience. We want you to know that

we really care for your business.

Expedite, effective solutions. The faster we can fix your problem the better. We do what it takes to

set things right. Expectation – we try to give more than you expect.

Respond. While many people in business focus on doing things right the first time, we take a

powerful interest in setting things right if they do go wrong.

V.I.P. You are very important for us. We carefully take care of and follow your orders from order

entry until shipping the goods.

Implement improvements, changing processes to avoid the problem next time. We will use your

feedback to avoid problems and to improve productivity and service quality.

Communication. Don’t hesitate to contact us, we are here to help you.

Excellence.

REFERENCES

1. Cialdini, R. Influence: Psychology of Persuasion. Influencing skills.Business Tech International Press,

p. 17-35, Bucharest, 2004

2. Guner, G. Situational Service: Customer Satisfaction. Center for Leadership Studies.Inc. And

Situational Services Incorporated, p. 52-80, Turkey, 2004

3. Kotler, P. Marketing Management, Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control:Markets Analysis

and customers’behaviour, p. 234-269, Teora, Bucharest, 2003

4. Tran, V. Communication Theory: Interpersonal Communication, p. 81-100, S.N.S.P.A. Bucharest, 2001

PRINCIPIILE CONCURENŢEI ÎN SPAŢIUL ECONOMIC AL UNIUNII EUROPENE

Prof. univ. dr. Marţian IOVAN

Universitatea de Vest „Vasile Goldiş” din Arad

România

Telefon/ fax:0257/284899

E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT. The author starts by presenting a brief history of the European politics in this field of

competition which is that of providing a fair, transparent and functional environment, in view of

strengthening the single market. He continues by analyzing the political principles in the domain of

competition through treaties regarding the European integration, inclusively the Treaty of Lisabon. In a

synthesis based experience of authorities representing the Union, the author highlights the rules and

content of the public policies pursuing the agreement between enterprises and the concerned practices

with monopolist character; the abuse of the dominant position inside the common market; the antitrust

legislation; the policy regarding social welfare and the role of the state department in economy; the

importance of observing the financial laws and the view of the Member States regarding competition.

The policy of the European authorities started decades ago by creating a decisional network which

involves not only international actors, but also Member States public authorities - all interacting in an

environment in which the principles of the European Union Treaties will be applied taking into

consideration the law of all national systems. Such public politics is essential having a multinational

character.

Key words: European integration, economy, competition, market, states.

Încă în Memorandumul Jean Monnet, apoi în Tratatul de creare a C.E.C.O., din 1951, şi în

Tratatul de la Roma, sunt stabilite direcţii şi principii de acţiune ale politicii în domeniul concurenţei, ştiut

fiind faptul că întreţinerea unui climat concurenţial funcţional reprezintă o cerinţă fundamentală a

dezvoltării economiei de piaţă.

1


Întrucât Piaţa Comună a fost concepută ca o piaţă liberă, iar în tratatele cu privire la integrarea

europeană, inclusive în controversatul proiect de Constituţie Europeană1, s-a stabilit că unul dintre

obiectivele Uniunii constă în aceea că Uniunea oferă cetăţenelor şi cetăţenilor săi un spaţiu de libertate,

securitate şi justiţie, fără frontiere interne, precum şi o piaţă unică unde concurenţa este liberă şi

nedistorsionată, asigurarea unei bune funcţionări a mecanismelor concurenţiale a fost şi va rămâne o

condiţie indispensabilă pentru promovarea eficienţei economice, a calităţii bunurilor şi serviciilor, a

progresului tehnologic, a productivităţii în ansamblu şi a creşterii gradului de satisfacţie a consumatorilor.

Concurenţa ar putea fi definită ca „preocuparea pentru asigurarea funcţionării corecte a regulilor

jocului comercial atât din punctul de vedere al autorităţilor publice, al agenţilor economici, cât şi al

indivizilor”. 2 Astfel concepută, concurenţa desfăşurată pe o piaţă largă şi extrem de complexă, cum este

cea a Uniunii Europene, îndeplineşte rolul de cel mai important principiu organizaţional al economiei de

piaţă atrăgând numărul imens de agenţi economici şi consumatori în acţiunea de echilibrare a cererii cu

oferta. Dar proiectul pieţei unice europene va rămâne un model teoretic, ideal – atâta vreme cât în

practicile comerciale reale se împletesc diferite tipuri de pieţe ale bunurilor, serviciilor, capitalurilor, forţei

de muncă, monetare etc. dependente de tradiţiile naţionale, de particularităţile regionale şi locale. Pe

aceste pieţe s-au manifestat diferite forme de concurenţă imperfectă (monopoluri, carteluri, oligopol,

monopson etc.) combinate între ele în diferite moduri, în funcţie de loc şi de timp; de asemenea, în

paralel, s-au produs incorectitudini atunci când agenţii economici au practicat metode de vânzare-

cumpărare aflate în discordanţă cu normele şi reglementările legale.

Dat fiind faptul că, până în momentul creării Comunităţii Economice Europene şi până la

preaderarea la U.E., statele europene practicau în diferite moduri politici protecţioniste, de subvenţionare

a anumitor ramuri industriale, a unor întreprinderi considerate de interes naţional, s-a impus necesitatea

articulării unei politici în domeniul concurenţei , prin care să se dezvolte un cadru instituţional,

normativ în care instituţiile europene abilitate, guvernele pot menţine şi stimula concurenţa, pot preveni

manifestările distorsionante de concurenţă sau pot combate comportamentele neloiale şi incorecte ale

participanţilor la mecanismele pieţei (practicile anticoncurenţiale, abuzul de poziţie dominantă,

aranjamentele comerciale incorecte, ajutoarele de stat care pot altera concurenţa, practicile concertate

între agenţii economici care pot elimina sau distorsiona fluxurile comerciale etc.).

Raţiunea principală a politicii în sfera concurenţei o constituie adoptarea acelor practici care să

consolideze şi să dezvolte mediul concurenţial astfel încât să fie atinse gradual obiective de felul următor:

Creşterea calităţii vieţii consumatorilor datorită îmbunătăţirii performanţelor economice, accesului

la o diversitate mai mare de bunuri şi servicii, reducerea timpului de muncă şi creşterea timpului

liber etc.;

1 Proiectul „Tratatului pentru instituirea unei Constituţii Europene” (T.C.) rămâne un document controversat care intră în arhivele U.E.2 Wish, R., Competition Law, Second edition, London, 1989, p.3

2

Protecţia consumatorilor prin prevenirea şi înlăturarea efectelor dăunătoare ale practicilor

anticoncurenţiale;

Promovarea măsurilor antimonopol, antitrust, ca structuri orientate spre polarizarea bogăţiei în

societate şi cu potenţial nedemocratic;

Asigurarea unei mobilităţi maximale a factorilor de producţie, astfel încât toţi agenţii economici –

producători şi consumatori – să poată găsi liber capitalul şi forţa de muncă de care au nevoie la

un moment dat;

Promovarea atomicităţii în ceea ce priveşte numărul şi puterea economică a agenţilor de pe piaţă

– fapt care se face remarcabil în protejarea întreprinderilor mici şi mijlocii;

Maximizarea transparenţei în ceea ce priveşte oferta şi cererea, astfel încât actorii de pe piaţă să

poată obţine liber cel mai bun produs/serviciu la cel mai bun preţ;

Corelarea şi asigurarea funcţionării coerente a diversităţii tipurilor de pieţe, de bunuri, servicii,

capital, forţă de muncă etc. din spaţiul Uniunii Europene şi în raport cu exteriorul;

Satisfacerea unor cerinţe sociale şi de dezvoltare durabilă – scop în care politica în domeniul

concurenţei poate conţine măsuri nonconcurenţiale fiind vizate: reducerea şomajului, eradicarea

sărăciei, protecţia mediului, dezvoltarea unor sectoare de „vârf” ale economiei europene şi a

capacităţii de apărare, diminuarea decalajelor dintre regiuni etc.

Subordonată realizării unor astfel de obiective, politica publică europeană în domeniul concurenţei

a fost concepută şi adaptată în funcţie de derularea practicilor anticoncurenţiale existente într-o etapă

sau alta, într-o zonă sau alta, necesităţii integrării politice prin consolidarea uniunii economice. Orice

acte de împiedicare, restrângere sau distorsionare (denaturare) a concurenţei libere pot avea ca

rezultat funcţionarea necorespunzătoare a pieţei comune, crearea unor disfuncţii, dezechilibre sau

discontinuităţi în relaţiile intracomunitare. 3

1. Scurt istoric al politicii comunitare în sfera concurenţei

Procesul de proiectare, implementare şi consolidare a politicilor Uniunii Europene a început

odată cu înfiinţarea C.E.C.O (1951), dezvoltându-se, ulterior, cu predilecţie în cadrul Comunităţii

Economice Europene. Politica europeană în domeniul concurenţei se bazează pe Art. 3 (f) al

Tratatului de la Roma, pe Art.3 (g) al Tratatului de la Maastricht, în care se precizează că trebuie luate

măsuri corespunzătoarea astfel încât „concurenţa la nivelul Pieţei Comune să nu fie distorsionată”. În

acest scop trebuie respectate regulile cu privire la concurenţă4, iar Comisia urmează să exercite

controlul asupra aranjamentelor anticoncurenţiale, comportamentelor anticoncurenţiale ale

3 Vezi Octavian Manolache, Tratat de drept comunitar, Ediţia 5, Editura C.H. Beck, Bucureşti, 2006, pp.324 – 446. 4 Aceste reguli sunt cuprinse în Partea a III-a, titlul 1, cap. 3, în articolele 85 (81), până la 94 (89) în Tratatul de la Maastricht.

3

monopolurilor şi agenţilor economici publici, asupra ajutoarelor de stat. Aceste direcţii de acţiune au

constituit pilonii centrali ai politicii comunitare în domeniul concurenţei.

Crearea şi dezvoltarea unei pieţe comune fundamentată pe principiile liberei circulaţii a

bunurilor, serviciilor, capitalurilor şi persoanelor, pe libera concurenţă, în conformitate cu Tratatul de

instituire a Comunităţii Economice Europene, a favorizat dezvoltarea graduală a unor politici comune

în domeniul concurenţei şi comerţului. Comisia a acţionat în sensul dezvoltării unei politici nu numai

de monitorizare şi coordonare, ci şi de coparticipare comună. Astfel, din nevoia derulării unui proces

puternic centralizat, politica în domeniul concurenţei şi politica comercială comună au devenit treptat

politici sectoriale autentic supranaţionale, aflate în competenţa exclusivă a autorităţilor Uniunii

Europene. Totodată, s-a înregistrat un proces de apropiere, de compatibilizare a legislaţiilor naţionale,

în măsura în care trebuia asigurată funcţionarea pieţei comune.

În anul 1962, în urma negocierilor la nivelul Consiliului Ministerial, s-a ajuns la un important

acord, cunoscut sub numele de Reglementarea 17, care conţine un set de drepturi acordate agenţilor

economici aflaţi în competiţie. Reglementarea conţine norme privind: obligativitatea firmelor de a

notifica în prealabil aranjamentele lor comerciale către Comisie (Art.4 şi 5); condiţiile în care se pot

acorda excepţii individuale (Art. 6 şi 8); mecanismul de consultare pentru autorităţile publice naţionale

(Art.10); administrarea practică a politicii de către Comisie (Art. 14); limitele superioare ale amenzilor

şi penalităţilor (Art. 15 şi 16); drepturile statelor membre şi ale părţilor terţe în cazul declanşării

investigaţiilor (Art. 19). Punerea în aplicare a Reglementării 17 a fost urmată de creşterea

exponenţială, în anii '60, a numărului notificărilor către Directoratul General pentru Concurenţă. De

asemenea, a crescut numărul cererilor de exceptare individuală.

Volumul de muncă al Comisiei şi al Directoratului General pentru Concurenţă a crescut de la

an la an; acestea aflându-se în fiecare nouă etapă în postura de a-şi redefini priorităţile, de a promova

o atitudine ofensivă în a interveni cu restricţii aplicate manifestărilor anticoncurenţiale de pe piaţă, de

a dezvolta reţeaua instituţională proprie şi de a forma personalul necesar. Rolul Curţii Europene de

Justiţie a fost minimal până la sfârşitul anilor '60. În această perioadă, efectele anticoncurenţiale ale

dezvoltării monopolurilor, ale concentrărilor economice în diferite forme, ale ajutoarelor de stat au fost

subestimate de Comisie; aceasta, adesea, exprima o atitudine de toleranţă faţă de carteluri, de

practicile de monopol. Dar, pentru că în anii ' 70 s-au revigorat manifestările de monopol, abuzurile de

poziţie dominantă pe piaţă şi au proliferat subvenţiile guvernamentale, Comisia şi alte autorităţi

comunitare au promovat o nouă axă în politica lor în domeniul concurenţei – aceea de a

instituţionaliza un sistem coerent de control preventiv prin care să fie înlăturat abuzul de poziţie

dominantă, să fie monitorizate fuziunile şi alte forme de concentrare economică, să ţină sub control

acordarea de ajutoare publice discriminatorii. În acest scop a fost necesară dezvoltarea şi

consolidarea legislaţiei în domeniu, creşterea competenţei profesionale a personalului.

În anii '80, problematica politicii în domeniul concurenţei a fost clasată pe o poziţie privilegiată

în agenda Comisiei pornind de la o filozofie nouă – de factură neoliberală, cu privire la valorificarea

condiţiilor necesare pentru ca relaţiile de concurenţă să joace rolul de forţă regeneratoare a industriei

4

europene. La aceasta a contribuit într-o oarecare măsură şi climatul economic mondial, caracterizat

de puternica dezvoltare a SUA şi a ţărilor din Asia de Sud - Est. Pe acest fond a crescut rolul

comisarilor pentru concurenţă, al Comisiei şi, mai ales, al Curţii Europene de Justiţie, fiind vizat

controlul fuziunilor, al ajutoarelor de stat, astfel încât să fie asigurate perspectivele realizării procesului

de integrare regională. Volumul de muncă al Curţii Europene de Justiţie în domeniu a crescut ca

urmare a numărului tot mai mare de cazuri primite pentru soluţionare. În acelaşi timp, Consiliul

Ministerial a acordat o tot mai mare atenţie respectării regulilor concurenţei în toate sectoarele

economice, aderând la ideea că o puternică competiţie internă este cheia competitivităţii pe plan

extern. Autoritatea Directoratului General pentru Concurenţă a crescut treptat, în timp ce componenta

protecţionistă a politicii în domeniul concurenţei s-a diminuat şi s-a marginalizat. Comisia şi-a

amplificat preocupările pentru antrenarea, implicarea organismelor din ţările membre în vederea

respectării principiilor şi normelor dreptului comunitar în materie de concurenţă.

Unul dintre rezultatele proiectării şi implementării politicii în domeniul concurenţei, până în anii

lansării proiectului Tratatului de instituire a Constituţiei Europene, a fost consolidarea unui sistem de

relaţii între Comisie şi C.E.J. care joacă un rol vital în administrarea curentă a procesului de făurire a

pieţii unice europene. Comisia este instituţia care stabileşte principalele reguli, efectuează

investigaţiile, adoptă soluţiile, decide întreruperea comportamentului anticoncurenţial, aplică

penalizări; instrumentele decizionale se află practic la dispoziţia Comisiei. Rolul Comisiei a crescut în

ultimele două decenii şi datorită implicării active a Parlamentului şi Consiliului Ministerial, mai ales

pentru a fi asigurată o mai mare transparenţă şi deschidere în procesul de aplicare a principiilor

concurenţei. De asemenea, C.E.J. şi Curtea de Primă Instanţă au jucat şi continuă să exercite un rol

esenţial în procesul de aplicare a regulilor concurenţei. Aceste două instituţii sunt responsabile pentru

supervizarea legală a regulilor în domeniul concurenţei. Pe fondul prevalenţei dreptului comunitar

asupra celui naţional, deciziile acestor instituţii sunt obligatorii pentru statele membre.

2. Principiile actuale ale politicii Uniunii Europene în domeniul concurenţei

Dezvoltarea pieţei publice europene, consolidarea uniunii economice şi monetare presupun

asigurarea cadrului optim derulării concurenţei între agenţii economici, astfel încât să fie promovată

eficienţa şi calitatea. Înglobând majoritatea măsurilor din tratatele precedente – fondatoare ale Uniunii

Europene – tratatele de la Nisa şi Lisabona prezintă conţinutul şi regulile politicilor U.E. În acest sens, sunt

interzise practicile comerciale restrictive, sunt condamnate monopolurile şi poziţia dominantă pe piaţă,

sunt formulate – la modul principial, politicile cu privire la achiziţii şi fuziuni, la ajutoarele de stat şi faţă de

sectorul de stat.

5

A. Încă în Tratatul de la Roma, Partea a III-a, Art.85 (1) se precizează faptul că sunt incompatibile cu piaţa internă şi interzise orice acorduri între întreprinderi, orice decizii ale asocierilor de întreprinderi şi orice practici concertate care pot prejudicia comerţul dintre statele membre şi care au

ca obiect sau efect împiedicarea, restrângerea sau denaturarea concurenţei în cadrul pieţei interne, în

special cele care constau în:

Impunerea în mod direct sau indirect a preţurilor de cumpărare sau de vânzare sau a altor condiţii

de comercializare inechitabilă;

Împărţirea pieţelor sau surselor de aprovizionare;

Aplicarea unor condiţii inegale la prestaţii echivalente în raportul cu partenerii comerciali,

plasându-i pe aceştia în dezavantaj concurenţial;

Limitarea sau controlul producţiei, desfacerii, dezvoltării tehnice, a investiţiilor;

Condiţionarea încheierii contractelor de acceptarea de către parteneri a unor prestaţii

suplimentare care, prin natura lor sau conform uzanţei comerciale, nu au legătură cu obiectul

acestor contracte.

Unele acorduri, decizii sau chiar categorii de decizii de asociere, unele practici concertate pot fi

exceptate de la regulile anterioare cu condiţia ca ele să favorizeze îmbunătăţirea producţiei, a distribuţiei

produselor, promovarea progresului tehnic sau economic şi să rezerve consumatorilor o parte echitabilă

din profitul rezultat. Astfel filosofia pe care se fundamentează Tratatele Uniunii Europene şi, în particular,

legislaţia europeană în materie de concurenţă promovează credinţa în drepturile individuale, în libertate,

respingerea intervenţiei statului în regulile pieţei, atitudinea prudentă faţă de marile companii, respectul

faţă de consumatori.

În legislaţia comunitară anterioară cu privire la concurenţă, dar şi în Tratatul de la Lisabona, sunt

prevăzute şi aplicate derogări individuale şi derogări cadru în condiţiile precizate. Pentru a beneficia de

astfel de exceptări / derogări trebuie îndeplinite condiţii de felul următor: aranjamentul, practica aplicată

trebuie să fie favorabile realizării obiectivelor generale ale Uniunii Europene iar avantajele să fie mai mari

decât dezavantajele; să aibă efecte mici sau limitate asupra concurenţei; restricţiile care afectează

concurenţa să fie absolut necesare pentru atingerea obiectivelor companiei; să producă efecte benefice

pentru consumatori. Comisia Europeană, Directoratul General pentru Concurenţă (DG- IV), pe parcursul

deceniilor anterioare, au fost favorabile, flexibile în acordarea derogărilor dacă acordurile de asociere sau

practicile concertate se încadrau în condiţiile prevăzute în dreptul comunitar (au fost înregistrate zeci de

mii de cazuri de companii mixte, „carteluri de criză” constituite în industrii aflate în declin - precum sectorul

minier, siderurgic, construcţia de nave etc.). Guvernele naţionale au adus argumente pentru acordarea

derogării, dar aceasta era în competenţa exclusivă a Comisiei.

Pentru că, de la un deceniu la altul, a crescut numărul solicitanţilor de exceptări individuale, s-a pus

problema conceperii unor excepţii-cadru, care din raţiuni organizatorice, procedurale, de creştere a

operativităţii în luarea deciziilor, au fost aprobate de Consiliu. Reglementările cu privire la derogările –

cadru au fost revizuite şi actualizate în repetate rânduri, fiind valorificată experienţa acumulată de

autorităţile comunitare. Comisia a avut agenda încărcată cu probleme ce vizau practicile marilor companii;

6

la fel, problema practicilor restrictive a solicitat o mare parte din energiile şi timpul de lucru ale D.G. –IV. În

anii '80 şi '90 D.G.- IV a aplicat numeroase penalizări (în special amenzi), care în unele cazuri au depăşit

200 milioane €. Cartelurile au fost apreciate ca o ameninţare serioasă la adresa realizării/funcţionării pieţei

unice – motiv pentru care practicile anticoncurenţiale ale acestora (acordurile de fixare a preţurilor, de

partajare a preţurilor etc.) au fost condamnate şi intens mediatizate. Totodată, D.G.-IV a militat împotriva

aranjamentelor discriminatorii în domeniul distribuţiei şi exporturilor, aranjamentelor de licenţiere

exclusivă, abuzurilor de drepturi de proprietate intelectuală etc. Cu toate acestea, în ciuda succeselor

repurtate, aplicarea reglementărilor cu privire la derogările cadru a rămas un proces cu multe obstacole şi

neîmpliniri – dată fiind existenţa unor diferenţe / necorelări între reglementările comunitare şi unele norme

juridice naţionale în materie de concurenţă.

Din textul tratatelor de la Maastricht / Amsterdam/ Nisa / Lisabona se desprinde faptul că acordurile

care pot avea ca efect direct sau indirect fixarea preţurilor, stabilirea de condiţii de vânzare sau a cotelor

de producţie, înţelegeri ce duc la discriminarea partenerilor comerciali, boicoturile colective şi alte măsuri

similare sunt considerate ilegale pentru că distorsionează concurenţa şi afectează comerţul interstatal.5

Realizarea efectivă a politicii publice în domeniul concurenţei continuă să fie un demers al autorităţilor

U.E. extrem de complex şi încărcat cu diferite dificultăţi, a căror depăşire presupune nu numai

perfecţionarea sistemului decizional european, ci şi reformarea instituţională, accentuarea funcţiilor

guvernamentale ale instituţiilor europene.

B. Încă în Tratatul de la Roma (Art. 86), era prevăzut că “este incompatibilă cu piaţa internă şi

interzisă, în măsura în care ar putea aduce atingere comerţului dintre statele membre, folosirea în mod

abuziv de una sau mai multe întreprinderi a unei poziţii dominante deţinute pe piaţa internă sau pe o parte

semnificativă a acesteia.” În ultimele tratate este păstrat principiul de interdicţie a abuzului de poziţie dominantă în interiorul pieţei comune întrucât acesta afectează comerţul dintre statele membre. Practicile

abuzive ar putea consta în:

Impunerea, în mod direct sau indirect, de preţuri de vânzare, de cumpărare sau de condiţii de

comercializare inechitabile;

Condiţionarea încheierii contractelor de acceptarea de către parteneri a unor prestaţii

suplimentare care, prin natura sau conform uzanţei comerciale, nu au legătură cu obiectul

acestor contracte;

Aplicarea unor condiţii inegale la prestaţii echivalente în raporturile cu partenerii comerciali,

plasându-i pe aceştia în dezavantaj concurenţial;

Limitarea producţiei, a desfacerii sau a dezvoltării tehnice în detrimentul consumatorilor. De la

acest principiu, Uniunea nu acordă derogări şi nu face excepţii.

Practicile antimonopol premergătoare Tratatului de la Lisabona, mai ales în anii '50-'60, au

evidenţiat o politică publică a guvernelor în domeniul concurenţei cu puncte slabe şi cu alunecări duale.

5 Vezi Enciclopedia Uniunii Europene, Ediţia a III-a, coordonator Luciana – Alexandra Ghica, Editura Meronia, Bucureşti, 2007, p. 120.

7

Acestea, manifestând o teamă că va slăbi competitivitatea în faţa provocărilor venite din partea unor firme

din SUA şi Japonia, au promovat creşterea puterii marilor companii – ca o cale de relansare economică şi

de progres tehnologic. Activitatea agenţilor economici transnaţionali europeni a fost încurajată chiar după

intrarea în vigoare a Tratatului de la Roma, în care era stabilit că libera concurenţă este o prioritate în

cadrul Comunităţii şi orice abuz al uneia sau mai multor entităţi care au o poziţie dominantă pe o piaţă sau

pe o parte a acesteia va fi prohibit, ca incompatibil cu principiile pieţei comune dacă afectează comerţul

dintre statele membre.

Problema conceptuală şi practică ce se punea consta în stabilirea condiţiilor necesare pentru a

lua în considerare existenţa unui monopol în economie şi dacă acesta a uzat de poziţia dominantă pe piaţă. Ori Tratatul pentru crearea Comunităţii Economice Europene nominalizează trei note de conţinut

ale noţiunii de monopol: firma să aibă o poziţie dominantă; acţiunile acesteia să producă efecte asupra

pieţei comune sau asupra unei părţi semnificative a acesteia şi acţiunile întreprinse să afecteze comerţul

dintre statele membre. Pe când noţiunea de poziţia dominantă a unei firme pe o piaţă semnificativă (fie

piaţă a produsului, fie piaţă cu limite geografice sau fie piaţă cu o dinamică în timp) constă în abilitatea şi

capacitatea firmei de a înlătura concurenţa de pe un segment semnificativ al pieţei. În acest sens, pentru

a stabili semnificaţia noţiunii de poziţie dominantă pe piaţă se folosesc drept criterii: cota de piaţă a firmei

şi amplitudinea efectelor anticoncurenţiale. Se apreciază, în principiu, că o firmă are o poziţie dominantă

pe o piaţă atunci când cota sa de piaţă este mai mare de 40%. Aceasta nu exclude excepţiile, care sunt

dependente de diferite caracteristici ale pieţei. Au fost constatate cazuri de firme cu poziţie dominantă pe

piaţă în condiţiile în care cota de piaţă a produselor acestora a fost sub 25 %. Aceste firme au reuşit să

înlăture efectiv concurenţa de pe piaţa produselor lor, s-au comportat şi au luat decizii independent de

concurenţii lor, de consumatori şi de clienţi.

Din practicile şi experienţa Directoratului General IV s-a ajuns la concluzia că o firmă cu poziţie

dominantă pe piaţă abuzează de aceasta atunci când:

- stabileşte preţuri semnificativ mai mari sau mai mici decât preţurile de echilibru ale

pieţei cu scopul de a înlătura concurenţii;

- refuză să furnizeze produse în anumite cazuri;

- impune acorduri de cumpărare pentru anumite categorii de produse;

- reduce producţia sau tratează discriminatoriu diferite segmente de piaţă;

- pune în aplicare o strategie de achiziţii şi fuziuni pentru a înlătura concurenţii.

Posibilităţile de a abuza de poziţia dominantă de către o firmă cresc dacă, pe lângă faptul că ea

deţine o cotă mare din piaţa unui produs, sporesc oportunităţile pe planul structurii şi funcţionării pieţei

respective, comportamentului agenţilor economici concurenţi, accesului la noile tehnologii şi la factorii de

producţie, reglementărilor legale privind accesul agenţilor economici pe piaţa respectivă.

În acord cu cele anterioare, Comisia Europeană, autorităţile specializate în domeniu au avut de

rezolvat două probleme majore în implementarea politicii în domeniul concurenţei:

a) să demonstreze poziţia dominantă pe piaţă;

8

b) să desfăşoare o anchetă prin care să dovedească faptul că s-a abuzat de poziţia dominantă de pe

o piaţă.

În acelaşi timp, firmele supuse cercetărilor au trebuit să dovedească autorităţilor europene contrariul,

adică punctele a şi b nu sunt adevărate, sau mai concret, să demonstreze faptul că nu au făcut nimic prin

care să fi cauzat deteriorarea fragilei structurii a concurenţei, că nu au împiedicat – în mod neloial, apariţia

şi dezvoltarea unor noi competitori care ar fi putut ameninţa această dominaţie.

Ultimele tratate cu privire la instituirea şi funcţionarea Uniunii Europene sistematizează în principii

coerente de drept comunitar experienţa instituţiilor europene în domeniu, în special a Comisiei, Curţii

Europene de Justiţie şi DG IV; totodată, stabileşte necesitatea adoptării de către Consiliul Europei, la

propunerea Comisiei, a unor regulamente europene de punere în aplicare a principiilor concurenţei.

Consiliul hotărăşte după consultarea cu Parlamentul European. Regulamentele care vor fi adoptate

vizează atingerea unor scopuri specifice, precum: respectarea interdicţiilor aplicate în relaţiile de piaţă prin

instituirea de amenzi şi penalităţi cu titlu cominatoriu, simplificarea controlului administrativ şi asigurarea

supravegherii eficiente, să definească rolul Comisiei şi al CJE în aplicarea dispoziţiilor, regulilor cu privire

la concurenţă6, să definească raporturile dintre legislaţiile naţionale şi normele Uniunii Europene cu privire

la concurenţă. Până la intrarea în vigoare a regulamentelor europene, cele care hotărăsc cu privire la

admisibilitatea înţelegerilor, deciziilor şi practicilor concertate şi la exploatarea abuzivă a unei poziţii

dominante pe piaţa internă, în conformitate cu dreptul intern şi cu dispoziţiile tratatelor cu privire la

instituirea şi funcţionarea Uniunii Europene,sunt autorităţile statelor membre.

Comisia veghează la aplicarea principiilor politicii în domeniul concurenţei; la cererea unei stat

membru sau din oficiu, Comisia poate investiga presupusele cazuri notificate de încălcare a dispoziţiilor

privind concurenţa, în colaborare cu autorităţile competente din statele membre. Dacă se va constata

existenţa unei infracţiuni, Comisia propune mijloace adecvate pentru a-i pune capăt.

C. Comunitatea a pus în aplicare, dealungul timpului, o legislaţie antitrust menită să împiedice

înfăptuirea unor concentrări susceptibile de a crea poziţii dominante sau de a genera abuzuri pe piaţă.

Dacă au fost identificate şi se dovedesc astfel de cazuri, Curtea Europeană de Justiţie ia decizii de

interzicere, de stopare a concentrărilor şi fuziunilor care au generat distorsiuni în derularea concurenţei şi

au afectat funcţionarea relaţiilor comerciale dintre statele membre.

Monitorizarea preventivă a fuziunilor dintre întreprinderi cu dimensiuni europene a fost cea mai

controversată şi mediatizată de instituţiile de presă din Europa, chiar dacă reglementările comunitare în

domeniu au devenit clare în anii '90 şi au servit ca principal instrument al DG IV. Întrucât în anii ' 80 s-a

înregistrat o pronunţată creştere a numărului de fuziuni, societăţi mixte şi achiziţii publice, Comisiei

Europene i s-a cerut să elaboreze un proiect de Regulament în materie de achiziţii şi fuziuni, pentru a fi

aprobat de Consiliu – fapt ce a avut loc în 1989, punându-se astfel bazele unei politici europene coerente

în domeniul fuziunilor şi achiziţiilor. În Regulament, Art. 2(3), se stipulează că o concentrare care crează

6 Toate aceste reguli sunt prevăzute în Secţiunea din tratate vizând regulile cu privire la concurenţă aplicabile întreprinderilor.

9

sau consolidează o poziţie dominantă ca urmare a căreia concurenţa efectivă va fi distorsionată pe piaţa

comună, va fi declarată incompatibilă cu principiile pieţei integrate. Instituţiile abilitate să investigheze

fuziunile au avut ca obiect de cercetare acele firme care participă la o fuziune cu o cifră de afaceri

agregată de peste 5 miliarde de ECU; acele fuziuni în cadrul cărora cel puţin 2 dintre firmele implicate au

fiecare cel puţin 250 milioane ECU - cifră de afaceri individuală. Acele fuziuni care se încadrează în

parametrii anteriori, trebuie notificate Comisiei, care va aplica procedura în analiza fiecărui caz cu scopul

de a găsi răspunsuri concrete la întrebări privind: măsura în care fuziunea notificată intră sub incidenţa

Regulamentului; în ce măsură fuziunea este compatibilă cu principiile pieţei comune; dacă se

înregistrează o poziţie dominantă pe piaţă. Comisia urmează să identifice şi să estimeze efectele fuziunii

asupra concurenţei pe baza aplicării procedurii de control al fuziunilor, a analizei raportului Comitetului

Consultativ cu privire la concentrări.

Aplicarea Regulamentului comunitar, a procedurii de control al fuziunilor conduce la unul din

următoarele rezultate posibile:

fuziunea este incompatibilă cu dreptul comunitar, fiind respinsă;

aprobarea fuziunii, deoarece aceasta este compatibilă cu dreptul comunitar;

aprobarea fuziunii va fi acordată dacă vor fi satisfăcute câteva condiţii şi dacă vor fi asumate

câteva obligaţii suplimentare; în principiu fuziunea ar corespunde reglementărilor

comunitare.

Diversitatea şi numărul mare de cazuri de achiziţii şi fuziuni au ridicat uneori probleme dificile

Directoratului General IV, Comisiei şi CEJ, adesea confruntate cu divergenţe în raport cu guvernele

naţionale. Prin urmare, a crescut numărul de respingeri aplicate unor fuziuni de anvergură. În acelaşi timp,

a trebuit să se intervină pentru amendarea Regulamentului cu privire la controlul fuziunilor. Atât

reglementările comunitare, cât şi practicile sau experienţa acumulată în implementarea politicii în

domeniul concurenţei, implicit în sfera achiziţiilor şi fuziunilor de întreprinderi, sunt încorporate sintetic în

principiile / dispoziţiile tratatelor cu privire la integrarea europeană, urmărindu-se ca fuziunile,

concentrările şi achiziţiile realizate să nu distorsioneze concurenţa şi comerţul dintre statele membre iar

dacă se constată, pe acest plan, practici şi efecte anticoncurenţiale relevante – acestea urmează să fie

înlăturate.

D. În ceea ce priveşte politica cu privire la sectorul de stat în economie, în care, prin tradiţie,

au funcţionat monopoluri de stat (în minerit, transport, energie, telecomunicaţii, servicii poştale şi altele),

textul ultimelor tratate valorifică filosofia neoliberală cu privire la viaţa economică, experienţa acumulată de

Comisie şi CEJ în domeniul promovării unui autentic mediu concurenţial la nivel european, urmat de

rezultate benefice în planul productivităţii, eficienţei, asigurării calităţii bunurilor şi serviciilor, al introducerii

tehnologiilor de „vârf” şi satisfacerii nevoilor cumpărătorilor. Ori, până la începutul anilor '90, pe plan

practic statele şi-au păstrat monopolul asupra utilităţilor publice, proprietatea de stat în sectoarele care

furnizează electricitate, gaze, apă, servicii de transport şi telecomunicaţii. Statul s-a dovedit a fi un prost

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gospodar al proprietăţii sale; întreprinderile de stat au funcţionat adesea în afara reglementărilor din

domeniul concurenţei. Rezultatele au fost cele specifice gospodarului perdant, precum: adesea, serviciile

furnizate au fost scumpe şi de slabă calitate; întârzierea introducerii progresului tehnic şi a realizării de

inovaţii tehnologice; risipirea fondurilor şi ineficienţă; decalaje între preţuri existente pe teritoriile statelor

membre; incompatibilităţi între reţelele administrative naţionale.

Pe baza experienţei acumulate, Comisia a adoptat o politică de aplicare a principiilor concurenţei

corecte şi în domeniul utilităţilor publice întrucât, ca agenţi economici – fie ei aparţinători sectorului de stat,

reglementările în domeniul concurenţei sunt perfect compatibile cu misiunea / rolul acestora în economie.

Liberalizarea aplicată sectorului de stat din economia unor ţări membre ale Uniunii Europene a condus la

rezultate benefice pentru agenţi, societate, consumatori. Treptat, s-au creat premise pentru a fi eliminate

discriminările între firmele publice şi cele private în domeniul comercializării / achiziţiei de bunuri şi servicii.

Comisia a fost abilitată să adopte măsuri împotriva statelor membre care acordă drepturi exclusive sau

speciale unor firme. Însă, chiar dacă astfel de măsuri şi reglementări au fost adoptate, guvernele

naţionale, într-o măsură mai mică sau mai mare, au continuat să protejeze aşa-numitele „monopoluri de

interes public”. Unele firme de stat au reuşit să reziste la presiunile Comisiei şi Directoratului General IV în

privinţa creşterii transparenţei raporturilor financiare cu statele – motiv pentru care autorităţile europene şi-

au sporit energiile în aplicarea dreptului comunitar în domeniul concurenţei. Astfel, încă din anul 1980,

Comisia a adoptat Directiva privind transparenţa relaţiilor financiare dintre statele membre şi

întreprinderile publice. Aceste întreprinderi erau definite, în Art. 2 al Directivei ca „orice întreprinderi

asupra cărora autorităţile publice pot să exercite direct sau indirect o influenţă dominantă în virtutea

dreptului de proprietate asupra ei, participării lor financiare în cadrul ei ori regulilor care o cârmuiesc”.

De multe ori, autorităţile publice au exercitat o influenţă dominantă asupra deciziilor comerciale

ale întreprinderilor publice, fapt ce a fost posibil atunci când:

a) o autoritate publică deţine partea cea mai mare a capitalului subscris;

b) o autoritate publică controlează majoritatea voturilor ce se atribuie acţiunilor emise de

întreprinderi;

c) când pot să desemneze mai mult de jumătate din membrii organului administrativ de

conducere sau de supraveghere.

Ori, pentru a limita influenţa dominantă a autorităţilor publice în luarea deciziilor comerciale ale

firmelor de stat, trebuie respectate normele privind transparenţa financiară fiind vizate: compensarea

pierderilor financiare; furnizarea capitalului; subvenţiile nerambursabile; împrumuturile în condiţii

privilegiate; acordarea de avantaje financiare prin renunţarea la profituri ori la recuperarea sumelor

datorate; renunţarea la dobânda normală asupra fondurilor publice utilizate; compensarea obligaţiilor

financiare impuse de autorităţile publice. Prin toate acestea, Comisia a urmărit ca întreprinderile publice

să nu beneficieze sau să beneficieze cât mai puţin de un tratament preferenţial în materie de concurenţă,

să limiteze riscul denaturării concurenţei. În sfera de aplicare a Directivei Comisiei Nr. 80/723 din 1980

erau vizate nu numai întreprinderile publice ca atare, ci şi cele cărora le erau acordate drepturi exclusive

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sau speciale, cele cărora li se încredinţează efectuarea unor servicii de interes economic-general ori au

caracterul de monopol producător de venituri.

Pe acest fond, Comisia a continuat să practice intervenţii active valorificând normele specifice

statuate în Tratate, mai ales începând cu anii '90. Astfel, respectarea de către toţi agenţii economici –

privaţi şi publici, a regulilor concurenţei a devenit o prioritate; statele membre au devenit actori principali în

valorificarea noilor instrumente, cum ar fi reglementările antitrust, cele cu privire la ajutoarele de stat etc.

şi dezvoltarea cadrului dreptului comunitar al concurenţei, întrucât procesul de liberalizare în economie

depinde de punerea în aplicare a reglementărilor la nivel naţional.

Valorificând experienţa acumulată dealungul deceniilor în sfera politicii din domeniul concurenţei,

în ultimele tratate ale unei Uniunii Europene este stabilit faptul că în ceea ce priveşte întreprinderile

publice şi întreprinderile cărora le acordă drepturi speciale sau exclusive, statele membre nu emit şi nu

menţin nici o măsură contrară dispoziţiilor autorităţilor Uniunii Europene. Aceloraşi reguli de concurenţă,

sunt supuse şi întreprinderile însărcinate cu gestionarea serviciilor de interes economic general sau care

prezintă caracter de monopol fiscal. Principiile privind statutul întreprinderilor publice rămân, pentru viitor,

deschise unui proces de dezvoltare rezultată din adaptarea reglementărilor în domeniul concurenţei la

noile realităţii economice şi instituţionale survenite în Uniunea Europeană după anii 2000 şi, mai ales,

după ratificarea Tratatului de la Lisabona.

E. În atenţia autorităţilor europene a stat, încă de la înfiinţarea pieţei comune, regimul de acordare a ajutoarelor de stat, întrucât acestea au efecte de denaturare a concurenţei, de fragmentare a

pieţelor, de afectare a cadrului concurenţial comunitar. În ultimii 50 de ani, ajutoarele de stat către anumiţi

agenţi economici şi în detrimentul altora aflaţi în spaţiul pieţei unice s-au concretizat în diferite forme,

precum: subsidii - inclusiv la export; scutiri sau reduceri de sarcini fiscale sau sociale; garanţii de credite;

aplicarea unei rate a dobânzii mai mici la credite acordate de stat unor agenţi economici; acordarea de

credite fără dobândă; cumpărarea de acţiuni la anumite societăţi pentru a le salva de la faliment;

micşorarea / anularea obligaţiilor financiare ale unor întreprinderi când acestea au devenit insolvente;

acordarea de stimulente financiare unor întreprinderi în perspectiva privatizării acestora; punerea la

dispoziţie a unor suprafeţe de teren la preţuri modice sau chiar gratuit; subscrierea de capital de stat în

anumite întreprinderi, ca formă de ajutor; practicarea unor preţuri care avantajează agenţii publici (de

exemplu: un guvern achiziţionează la preţuri mai mari decât cel de echilibru al pieţei cu scopul de a

favoriza vânzătorul în competiţia pe piaţa comună), exceptarea de la obligaţia de a plăti amenzi, penalizări

şi alte asemenea mijloace financiare prin care autorităţile publice sprijină întreprinderile.

Procedurile aplicate de stat în acordarea ajutoarelor au fost directe sau indirecte; adesea statul a

recurs la scheme netransparente, la desemnarea unor instituţii publice ori private pentru a le investi cu

misiunea de a administra ajutorul acordat. Ori toate aceste forme de ajutor de stat imperfectează libera

circulaţie a bunurilor, denaturează concurenţa; toate sunt măsuri discriminatorii prin care vor fi favorizate

anumite activităţi naţionale, ele tinzând astfel să se substituie barierelor vamale care au fost înlăturate, să

12

creeze în mod artificial avantaje unor competitori în detrimentul altora. În plus, ele sunt acordate, adesea,

din raţiuni politice şi, mai rar, economice. Dacă toate întreprinderile ar beneficia de ajutor de stat, fără nici

o discriminare, atunci concurenţa nu ar fi afectată. Dar când, prin ajutorul financiar de orice fel,

întreprinderea beneficiară îşi întăreşte poziţia în raport cu celelalte aflate în competiţie pe piaţa

intracomunitară, atunci acesta joacă un rol nociv în derularea comerţului dintre state, fiind incompatibil cu

piaţa comună.

Încă în Tratatul de la Roma, Art. 87, paragr.1, se stabilea ca incompatibil cu piaţa comună a

oricărui ajutor acordat de un stat membru sau prin intermediul resurselor de stat, care distorsionează sau

ameninţă să distorsioneze concurenţa, favorizând unele întreprinderi ori producţia unor mărfuri, în măsura

în care afectează comerţul dintre statele membre. Fiind un fapt nociv pentru economia de piaţă, misiunea

politicii publice în domeniu este aceea de a depista ajutoarele existente, de a preveni acordarea de noi

ajutoare de tipul celor descoperite, în general de a le interzice. Comisia este cea care urma să ţină sub

control astfel de ajutoare, să propună măsurile potrivite pentru dezvoltarea progresivă şi funcţionarea

pieţei comune; politica faţă de ajutoarele de stat fiind prin natura ei una supranaţională.

Dar practica de edificare a pieţei unice europene a scos în evidenţă faptul că există unele ajutoare

de stat ce se integrează în cadrul comunitar, nu afectează comerţul dintre state, libera concurenţă; ba mai

mult, pot conduce la rezultate benefice pe plan tehnologic, social, în înlăturarea unor efecte catastrofale

naturale. Astfel de ajutoare de stat au fost acceptate, dealungul deceniilor, ca excepţii, ele obligatoriu

trebuind să aibă următoarele destinaţii:

promovarea dezvoltării unor zone economice cu standarde de viaţă reduse, cu o pondere

mare a sărăciei şi şomajului;

remedierea unei grave perturbări a economiei naţionale a unui stat membru;

executarea unui important proiect de interes european comun;

facilitarea dezvoltării unor zone economice când nu sunt afectate schimburile comerciale

şi concurenţa (coeziune şi politică regională);

dezvoltarea culturii şi conservarea patrimoniului cultural până la limita la care nu este

denaturată concurenţa etc.

Implementarea principiilor politicii publice privind ajutoarele de stat nu a fost lipsită de dificultăţi.

Dimpotrivă, presiunile grupurilor de interese asupra guvernelor naţionale, reţinerea guvernelor ţărilor

membre, necooperarea statelor membre au generat abateri de la regulile concurenţei. Pe acest fond,

Directoratul Antitrust şi Directoratul pentru Ajutoare de Stat au căutat mijloace pentru a convinge statele

din alcătuirea Comunităţii să respecte regulile, să sisteze ajutoarele şi practicile anticoncurenţiale de acest

tip. În anii '70, când şomajul şi inflaţia ajunseseră la un nivel ridicat, cererea era scăzută, competitivitatea

prăbuşită, guvernele considerau că este firesc să fie mărite cheltuielile bugetare în vederea reducerii

efectelor recesiunii economice. Subvenţiile bugetare erau în medie de 10 % din totalul cheltuielilor

bugetare iar în unele ţări depăşeau chiar 20 %. În astfel de condiţii, Directoratul pentru Ajutoare de Stat şi,

13

mai presus de acesta, Comisia, nu au reuşit să monitorizeze şi să articuleze o politică eficientă în

domeniul acordării ajutoarelor de stat.

Începând cu anii ' 90, Comisia şi Consiliul au reevaluat subvenţiile şi efectele lor în spaţiul

concurenţial; s-a stabilit cu mai multă precizie conţinutul conceptului de ajutor de stat la nivel european în

raport cu nivelul naţional sau local, a fost analizată „radiografia” ajutoarelor de stat la nivelul pieţei unice.

Astfel s-au pus bazele noii politici a axei Comisie – Consiliu - Curtea Europeană de Justiţie în domeniul

ajutoarelor de stat, a cărei experienţă este sintetizată în Tratatul de la Lisabona, fiind stabilite principiile în

privinţa regimului ajutoarelor de stat. În primul rând, este prevăzut că sunt incompatibile cu piaţa internă

ajutoarele acordate de statele membre sau prin intermediul resurselor de stat, sub orice formă, care

denaturează sau ameninţă să denatureze concurenţa, prin favorizarea anumitor întreprinderi sau sectoare

de producţie, în măsura în care acestea afectează schimburile dintre statele membre. Comisia este cea

care, împreună cu statele membre monitorizează permanent regimul ajutoarelor existente iar în cazul în

care constată incompatibilitatea unui ajutor de stat cu piaţa Uniunii sau că acel ajutor este utilizat în mod

abuziv, aceasta adoptă o decizie europeană de suspendare sau modificare a ajutorului de către statul în

cauză. În rezolvarea cazurilor sunt implicate Consiliul şi CEJ corespunzător procedurilor stabilite.

În acelaşi timp, sunt prevăzute tipurile de ajutoare compatibile sau care pot fi considerate

compatibile cu piaţa internă. În acest sens sunt următoarele:

ajutoarele cu caracter social acordate consumatorilor individuali, cu condiţia ca acestea să fie

acordate fără discriminare determinată de originea produselor;

ajutoarele destinate remedierii pagubelor provocate de calamităţi naturale;

ajutoare acordate economiei anumitor regiuni ale R. F. Germania, afectate de divizarea

Germaniei;

ajutoarele destinate să favorizeze dezvoltarea economică a regiunilor în care nivelul de trai

este anormal de scăzut;

cele destinate să promoveze cultura şi să conserve patrimoniul, dacă acestea nu modifică

condiţiile schimburilor comerciale şi ale concurenţei în Uniune, într-o măsură care contravine

interesului comun;

ajutoarele destinate să promoveze realizarea unui proiect important de interes european

comun sau să remedieze perturbări grave ale economiei unui stat membru;

alte categorii de ajutoare stabilite prin regulamente sau decizii europene adoptate de Consiliu,

la propunerea Comisiei, după consultarea Parlamentului European.

F. Pentru realizarea obiectivelor politicii Uniunii Europene în domeniul concurenţei prezintă o

mare importanţă respectarea dispoziţiilor fiscale. În acest sens, se aplică principiul conform căruia nici

un stat membru nu aplică, direct sau indirect, produselor altor state membre impozite interne, de orice

natură, mai mari decât cele care se aplică direct sau indirect produselor naţionale similare. În plus, nici un

stat membru nu aplică produselor altor state membre impozite interne de natură să protejeze indirect alte

14

produse. Totodată, existenţa unor norme unitare care să regleze concurenţa pe piaţa unică presupune

amendamente ale legislaţiei Uniunii Europene în domeniu. Legile sau legile-cadru europene stabilesc

măsurile referitoare la apropierea dispoziţiilor legale, de reglementare şi administrative ale statelor

membre având drept scop instituirea şi funcţionarea pieţei interne.

Consiliul este cel care hotărăşte în unanimitate, după consultarea Parlamentului European şi a

Comitetului Economic şi Social, în privinţa măsurilor de armonizare a legislaţiilor referitoare la impozitul pe

cifra de afaceri, accize şi alte impozite indirecte astfel încât să fie asigurată coerenţa pieţei unice şi cadrul

juridic menit să favorizeze concurenţa corectă / loială şi să evite manifestări anticoncurenţiale

aparţinătoare tipurilor invocate pe paginile anterioare.

Reproducerea de practici anticoncurenţiale, în ciuda eforturilor Consiliului de a adopta măsuri

menite să apropie dispoziţiile legale, administrative ale statelor membre de implementare a politicii în

domeniul concurenţei pe piaţa unică europeană va aduce Comisia în situaţia de a se consulta cu statele

membre, de a aplica procedurile de eliminare a practicilor neconstituţionale descoperite. În acest sens, se

prevede că „în cazul în care Comisia constată că o neconcordanţă între dispoziţiile legale, de

reglementare sau administrative ale statelor membre falsifică condiţiile de concurenţă pe piaţa internă şi

provoacă o denaturare care trebuie eliminată, aceasta se consultă cu statele membre în cauză. Dacă,

după această consultare, nu se ajunge la un acord, legile – cadru europene elimină denaturarea în

cauză.”

*

* *

Corelată cu o evidentă motivaţie a decidenţilor europeni de a promova valorile neoliberalismului,

reforma politicii concurenţei a fost supusă la testul unui timp de o jumătate de secol. În primele decenii,

Comisia s-a concentrat pe înregistrarea practicilor (acorduri, fuziuni, acţiuni concertate, ajutoare de stat

etc.) care generau sau puteau să producă denaturări ale concurenţei dându-şi acceptul asupra unora,

interzicând altele sau acţionând în sensul eliminării de pe piaţă a unora dintre practicile anticoncurenţiale

descoperite. Ca urmare a dezvoltării înregistrate la nivelul altor poli de putere economică la scară

planetară, a globalizării şi a extinderii geopolitice a Uniunii, a crescut numărul de semnale, de plângeri în

domeniul încălcării regulilor concurenţei. Treptat Comisia nu a mai putut face faţă soluţionării acestora,

fiind constrânsă să treacă la o aplicare descentralizată a regulilor concurenţei, să înlocuiască sistemul

notificării prealabile a Comisiei referitor la acorduri, fuziuni, ajutoare de stat etc. cu un sistem de verificare

post factum. Comisia şi-a trecut în agendă numai cazurile grave de încălcare a principiilor concurenţei, în

timp ce abaterile curente, cu un impact mai redus, au început să fie soluţionate de autorităţile şi jurisdicţiile

naţionale interesate sau direct afectate, conformându-se principiul subsidiarităţii.

În raport cu prevederile tratatelor de instituire şi funcţionare a Uniunii Europene, politica în

domeniul concurenţei se bazează pe un set de reglementări supranaţionale, unitare şi coerente la nivelul

pieţei unice. Reforma politicii concurenţei va trebui să facă faţă viitoarelor provocări ce vizează

15

legitimitatea demersurilor Comisiei (acesta este asociată de unii autori cu un deficit democratic)7 atâta

vreme cât Parlamentul European şi Consiliul au o implicare mai redusă şi, în al doilea rând, aşteptărilor

actorilor de pe piaţa unică de a rezolva operativ şi cu o maximă eficienţă cazurile de practici

anticoncurenţiale. În acelaşi timp, după cum atrăgea atenţia prof. Miron Dumitru, „ evoluţiile viitoare în

acest domeniu depind în tot mai mare măsură şi de factorii externi, printre care se pot menţiona:

percepţiile la nivel naţional cu privire la funcţiile unei politici comune, caracterul imprevizibil al climatului

politic şi economic internaţional, uniformizarea reglementărilor privind concurenţa în cadrul forumurilor

internaţionale.”8 În orice caz, regulile privind concurenţa reprezintă un corolar al prevederilor comunitare

relative la libera circulaţie a mărfurilor, astfel încât să fie larg facilitat procesul de dezvoltare a pieţei unice

europene, în care comerţul dintre statele membre să nu fie stânjenit de factori anticoncurenţiali iar

interesele întreprinderilor şi ale consumatorilor să nu fie afectate.

Privită în ansamblu, politica autorităţilor europene în domeniul concurenţei se înscrie pe linia

începută cu decenii în urmă de consolidare a unei reţele decizionale ce implică nu numai actori

supranaţionali, ci şi autorităţi publice de la nivelul statelor membre – toţi interacţionând într-un mediu în

care principiile concurenţei, aşa cum sunt definite în Dreptul Uniunii Europene, se vor impune în raport cu

normele de drept aparţinătoare sistemelor naţionale. Pluralismul centrelor de decizie de la nivelele

suprastatal şi statal corespunde regulilor jocului democratic doar dacă sunt asumate valori şi principii

comune menite să dea coerenţă şi consecvenţă politicii publice în domeniul concurenţei.

BIBLIOGRAFIE

1. Andersen, Swein S.; Eliassen, Kjell A., Making Policy in Europe, ediţia a II-a, Londra, 2001

2. Bărbulescu, Iordan Gh., Uniunea Europeană. Aprofundare şi extindere. Cartea 1. De la

Comunităţile Europene la Uniunea Europeană, Ed. Trei, Bucureşti, 2001

3. Bârzea, Cezar, Politicile şi instituţiile Uniunii Europene, Editura Corint, Bucureşti, 2001

4. Bocancea, Sorin, Instituţii şi politici publice în Uniunea Europeană, Ed. Cantes, Iaşi, 2004

5. Bondor, Florin (coordonator), Politici publice şi administraţie publică, Ed. Polirom, Iaşi, 2007

6. Ghica, Luciana – Alexandra (coordonator), Enciclopedia Uniunii Europene, Ediţia a III-a, Editura

Meronia, Bucureşti, 2007

7. George, Stephen, Politics and policy in the European Community, Oxford University Press, 1996

7 Cei care au ridicat problema deficitului democratic doresc să semnaleze faptul că, datorită supremaţiei legii comunitare asupra celei naţionale, guvernele statelor membre – reunite în Consiliu, ajung să poată practica un control al propriilor Parlamente, în loc să fie ele controlate de către Parlament. Totodată, guvernele naţionale iniţiază şi implementează anumite politici pentru care nu au acordul alegătorilor lor. 8 Dumitru Miron, Economia Uniunea Europene, Editura Luceafărul, Bucureşti, 2002.

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8. George, Stephen; Bache, Ian, Politics in the European Union, Oxford University Press, New York,

2001

9. Koch, R., Competition policy and law, Longman, 1994

10. Kovar, R., Code européen de la concurrence, Dalloz, 1993

11. Lequesne, Christian; Surel, Yves, L'intégration européenne: Entre émergence institutionnelle et

recomposition de l'État, Presses de Sciences Politiques, Paris, 2004

12. Manolache, Octavian, Tratat de drept comunitar, Ediţia a V-a, Editura C.H. Beck, Bucureşti, 2006,

pp. 324-661

13. Marga, Andrei, Filosofia unificării europene, Ediţia a IV- a, Editura Fundaţiei pentru Studii

europene, Cluj-Napoca, 2003

14. Miroiu, Adrian, Introducere în analiza politicilor publice, Ed. Punct, Bucureşti, 2001

15. Miron, Dumitru (coordonator), Economia Uniunii Europene,Editura Luceafărul, Bucureşti, 2002

16. Moussis, Nicholas, Guide to European Policies, European Study Service, Rixensart, 2003

17. Profiroiu, Marius, Politici publice. Teorie, analiză, practică, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2006

18. Sută, Nicolae (coordonator), Integrarea economică europeană, Editura Economică, Bucureşti,

1999

19. Ţincă, Ovidiu, Drept comunitar general, Editura Lumina Lex, Bucureşti, 2005

20. Zürn, Michael; Joerges, Christian, Law and Governance in Postnational Europe: Compliance

Beyond the Nation-State, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2004

21. Wish, R., Competition Law, 3rdedition, Butterwoths, London, 1993

22. *** Tratatul de instituire a unei Constituţii Europene,

http://www.avocatnet.ro/content/articles/id_1337/pagel%20D_5/avocatnet.html

23. http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Roma

24. http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Maastricht

25. http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Amsterdam

26. http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Nisa

27. http://europa.eu/lisbon_treaty/index_ro.htm

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http://europa.eu/lisbon_treaty/index_ro.htm

http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Nisa

http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Amsterdam

http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Maastricht

http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tratatul_de_la_Roma

http://www.avocatnet.ro/content/articles/id_1337/pagel%20D_5/avocatnet.html

SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE IN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE NEW ECONOMYPrep. univ. drd. Popescu Cristina Raluca – University of Bucharest

AbstractThe paper “Scientific Knowledge in the Complexity of the New Economy” aims to emphasize the

importance of rationally using the scientific knowledge in the new economy, only for the purpose of

creating social welfare and ensuring competitiveness for each individual upon the highest level.

The ground is represented by the idea that mankind today has undergone a series of critical phases

during its existence, and that nowadays we are facing the beginning of the Responsibility Century.

Man is becoming the central pillar for decisions made at any level, as it is regarded as the main

resource of the current society. This paper considers enunciating the following objectives: defining the

concepts of making individuals responsible, real values of the “whole common living”, enterprises’ “corporate social responsibility”, “information” and “knowledge” in view of the

transfer from the old to the new economy, as well as implementing the methods for increasing the level in individual’s awareness, protecting the real values of the “whole common living”, discovering the essence of responsibility taking into account the specific aspects of the new

economy.

Key words: new economy, making individuals responsible, knowledge, economic growth

1

1. A new phase for mankind – the beginning of the Responsibility CenturyGiven the current context faced by mankind, it can be asserted that humanity undergoes a new phase,

of profound connotations and implications on a general level, namely the beginning of the

Responsibility Century.

The core objective of the “2000 Lisbon Strategy” implies that in view of year 2010 the European Union

will become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge based economy worldwide, able of

sustainable economic growth, with the best jobs and the largest social cohesion1. Given this vision, the

themes approached by the “2000 Lisbon Strategy” open a series of extremely important issues for the

European Union.

The “2000 Lisbon Strategy” also provided a provision of particular theoretical and practical value “The

European Union is confronted with a quantum shift resulting from globalization and the challenges of a

new knowledge-driven economy. These changes are affecting every aspect of people’s lives and

require a radical transformation of the European economy. The Union must shape these changes in a

manner consistent with its values and concepts of society and also with a view to the forthcoming

enlargement2”. This processes’ shaping, grounded on the values promoted by the European Union is

expressed by the social model of the entire policy “People are Europe's main asset and should be the

focal point of the Union's policies. Investing in people and developing an active and dynamic welfare

state will be crucial both to Europe's place in the knowledge economy and for ensuring that the

emergence of this new economy does not compound the existing social problems of unemployment,

social exclusion and poverty3”.

From the information above there can be noticed that man becomes the central pillar of decisions

made at any level, and that it is considered as the main resource of the current society. Under such

circumstances, the individuals’ responsibility level should increase. However, the process of

making individuals more responsible should begin from inside, and not in response to external

factors.

People hold the “cosmic-technical” energy, and hence the power of destruction increases. That is why

people should be responsible for their actions and they should use the knowledge they currently have

only for the interest of mankind and in order to protect the real value of the “whole common living”. It is

of common knowledge the fact that throughout history mankind has faced various phases marked by a

series of disasters produced consequent to using knowledge for destructive purposes. In this respect,

there can be mentioned the creation of atomic bomb, with devastating effects that can be noticed even

nowadays, the gradual destruction of the ozone layer, with severe consequences over weather

worldwide, generating major disequilibrium, genetic modification implemented on plants, animals and

even humans, able to generate results that are only now beginning to take shape and which will

definitely become visible in the near future.

Another challenge of the new economy refers to the value of attempting to favor the increasing of

knowledge background of different nations. For such purpose, promoting economies opening seems

1 Presidency Conclusions Lisbon European Council, 23 and 29 March 2000, paragraph 5, www.europact.eu.int/summits/previous.htm2 Presidency Conclusions. Lisbon European Council, paragraph 13 Presidency Conclusions. Lisbon European Council, paragraph 24

2

to represent an advantage, especially if it can ease learning by observation. Regarding the main issue

of the new development, the efficient use of resources and the focus on the role played by positive

externalities in the economic growth process, Professor Constantin Popescu (Popescu, C., 2002)

underlined the following aspect: “The increase in the production of economic goods can support

development and achieve individual and social human welfare, upon the condition of keeping the

ecological equilibrium, or it can occur by polarizing the economic life upon directions that increase

real costs for the selected alternatives. The last mentioned economic growth, which wastes the limited

resources, is a growth generating poverty”.

Mankind’s global and local ecological issue cannot be solved unless for knowledge society and important

elements of the new economy will be also imposed by ecological and not only informational considerate.

a) The Responsibility Century refers to creating an ecologically sustainable society, because

unless for scientific knowledge, technologic knowledge and management of such, no assets,

organizations, and technological, biological and economic transformations would be produced which

are necessary for the sense evolution pursued by mankind.

b) The Responsibility Century is global and it involves all elements of the common living whole. Knowledge society, by both its components, informational and sustainable, will be of global nature.

c) The Responsibility Century will also represent a new phase in the culture, the first plan being

occupied by knowledge culture in view of responsibility, which involves all knowledge forms.

1.1. The concept of individuals’ “social responsibility” – discovering the essence of responsibility in the relation between “people” and the “living whole”Knowledge should be used in order to change people from inwards and such should not be grounded

that an external change over humans, in the attempt of making them more responsible, could have

long term surprising and positive effects. The focus should be on human values, on the

implementation of modalities for making individuals responsible, which could lead to long term results,

and this becomes possible as soon as every particular individual becomes entirely aware of his/her

contribution to mankind.

The current society places as focal point the consumers’ demand and needs, involving to an ever

larger extent the design, production and use of goods and services from their very research and

development. From this standpoint, the new economy is of interactive, participative nature, ensuring

the interface between offer and demand on a much more rigorous volume and structure area, in space

and time. The role of the consumer is increasing, moreover in terms of his ability of becoming an

important source of innovational ideas for the producer or of innovation forcing, for market

maintenance or growth purposes, for increasing the comfort level or for increasing the sustainability

level of the economic growth.

Competition and cooperation represent two inseparable sides of the new economy, taking into

account the interaction between demand and offer. The competition manifestation forms between

producers are radically changed by the priority granted to a consumer which is continuously and

rapidly changing in respect with his needs, tastes and demands, thus forcing competitors to cooperate.

The new economy respects the principle according to which “the more persons are involved, the

larger the advantages for each involved party”.

3

The micro- and macro-economical effects of the new economy are grounded on the principles which

are generally valid to its development, namely:

a)awareness;

b)accessibility;

c)availability;

d)affordability;

The analysis of the economical and social life on a global scale emphasizes the fact that theories on

economic growth have succeeded only in part, upon the scale of reduced population size, to solve the

development related issues, and that such have severe consequences in respect with economical-

social and ecological disequilibrium. In time there could be noticed that the development of some can

only be achieved by other’s becoming poor, by irremediable environmental pollution or by destroying

the planet’s other life forms.

In this respect, the Canadian Professor Bernard Hodgson (Bernard Hodgson, 2002) raised the

problem of morality of uncontrolled economic growth as an imperative aspect and reality of the

economic liberalism. He draws the attention on the following fact: the increase serving only to satisfying

endless desires can undermine the liberal dimension of the liberal growth ethics, due to constant

manipulation of the consumers and due to the real consequences of the economic growth over the

environment, given negative externalities. “It is ironic that the growth receipts in a liberal market

economy, promoted both by technologic advances in production, and by the uncontrolled consumerism

can only reduce the choices of both the producer and the consumer, choices representing the very

essence of a market economy based system”.

Hodgson promoted economic theory reconstruction in a moral view, due to the inherent morality of the

human action and he also demonstrated that economic theories could not be neutral in respect with the

values they promoted, but that they were of normative nature, promoting moral values.

1.2. The concept of enterprises “corporatist social responsibility” – unrevealing the essence of responsibilityThe theoretical-pragmatic aspects have been put into practice by creating the enterprises “corporatist

social responsibility” concept. A new vision on social positioning of such, it describes the enterprises’

functions system. “The main function of an enterprise is to create value through producing goods and

services that society demands, thereby generating profit for its owners and shareholders as well as

welfare for society, particularly through an ongoing process of job creation. However, new social and

market pressures are gradually leading to a change in the values and in the horizon of business

activity”4. In view of such social function, the concept of “corporatist social responsibility” particularizes

what organizational behavior means. “Most definitions of corporate social responsibility describe it as

a concept whereby companies integrate social and environmental concerns in their business

operations and in their interaction with their stakeholders on a voluntary basis”5.

4 Corporate Social Responsibility. A business contribution to sustainable development, 2002 Commission of the European Communities COM/2002 347 final5Green Paper. Promoting a European Framework for Corporate Social Responsibility, 2001, European Commission, Luxemburg, p.8

4

The concept introduced by the European Union aims a behavior change on an organizational level.

Enterprises should fulfill their legal obligations, exceeding the existent agreements, and by voluntarily

undertaking new and important social obligations and responsibilities which are not (directly or

indirectly) generated by the demands of obtaining profits for owners or stakeholders.

The range of these new responsibilities is extremely varied.

a) On internal level (regarding enterprise related activities) corporate social responsibility can refer

to:

- Investing in the human capital, such as: employees training in permanent learning, employees

empowerment based management, ensuring a better personnel training, promoting more

harmonious rapports between work, family and spare time, a larger labor diversity, equal

payment for women and equal promotion chances for them;

- Un-discriminatory practices regarding ethnical and national minorities;

- Labor security and employees health safety on the job (others than those which are legally

mandatory);

- Managing the impact over the environment and the natural resources: reducing the natural

resources consume, pollution, energy waste, practicing the “win-win” opportunities relation

(good for both the business and the environment).

b) On external level (regarding a company’s activity “beyond its doors” – local community,

shareholders, partners, suppliers, consumers, public authorities):

- Integrating the company in the local community by providing jobs, incomes (benefits and

services), cooperation with other enterprises (especially SME) and contribution to the viability

of such, training employees and ensuring the possibility of allowing them to be employed by

other units etc;

- Protecting human rights in respect with local community and with the activities on an

international level and channels of global offer, promoting exemplary relations in terms of

moral, legal and political aspects on a local plan and in regards to the environments outside

the community;

- Voluntary involvement in complying with the prerequisites for a clean global environment;

In view of these visions and social experiences, detailed knowledge of nowadays’ characteristics and

behaviors will lead to a better approach of all challenges generated by contemporary processes and to

the implementation of new methods and methodologies able to help mankind to face the

Responsibility Century.

1.3. Prospectus regarding the concepts of “information” and “knowledge”a) Information, driver for social welfareGrounded on Moore’s synthesis6, four aspects can be underlined regarding the economic role of

information:

Information is a resource for organizations and private individuals, becoming the main source of

welfare for companies and individuals;

6 Moore, N., The Information Society, World Information Report 1997/98, UNESCO Publishing Paris, 1997.

5

Information represents the grounds of new rapidly growing economic areas;

Information can be used in common without being consumed;

The development of information and communication technology (ICT) revolutionizes

fundamental activities of the human society: business, education, governing, and enterprise

management.

Thomas S. Wurster and Philip Evans (2000) provide extremely interesting opinions on the economic role of information, quoting a highly appreciated article they previously published in Harvard Business Review.

The authors regard an enterprise’s activities in view of two elements: information and works. The

production physical world takes shape by information, yet in the economy of an activity an information

economics combines with an economics of the things that are fundamentally and qualitatively different

(only if we refer to the fact that sold or transferred information is not lost, whilst physical things are finally

transferred). Internet and electronic networks create an information flow which is ever larger, distinctly of

physical things. That is why the old connection between the physical object and information is broken. Yet,

a connection remains, however released of any immediate constrain. This leads to valorizing a large latent

economic potential which is transformed into value.

These authors draft a theory of information richness and reach, by means of which they interpret the

effect of the information economics in the context of relative, yet pronounced, separation from physical

things. The theory also applies in the case when the main product is information. Information richness is

not only the information quantity, but it also refers besides such (for instance, the transmission ribbon

allowing only for text if it is narrow or moving image if it is larger), to interactivity, to the extent in which it can

be purposefully prepared for the addressee, to information correctness, to information security etc.

Information richness actually means information quality. Reaching information refers to the number of

people who can receive certain information.

Wurster and Evans ascertained that as long as information is comprised in the delivered physical things, a

basic law exists governing its economy: the larger the information richness, the lower its reaching is.

This can be also easily understood on an intuitive standpoint.

Electronic commerce is an example of high reach level economy. However, the browsing phenomenon,

without which reach would be un-organized. It is important to achieve a reach level that could ensure

critical mass of beneficiaries, unless for which value creation could no longer be ensured. The critical mass

refers to the area of information economy, and not of things economy.

b) Knowledge in view of intellectual capitalKnowledge represents intellectual capital, what is learned in an organization: “no other sustainable

advantage exists than what a company knows, how it can use what it knows and how fast it can learn

something new”. Bohn noticed7: „information is much easier to store, describe and move than knowledge”.

This author mentions that it is important to understand technological knowledge, meaning knowledge

regarding the way of producing goods and services.

7 Roger E. Bohn, Measuring and Managing Technological Knowledge, quoting Dale Neef (coordinator).

6

Bohn, as well as others, operates a distinction between data and information, and between information and

knowledge:

a) Data are obtained directly from measuring one or more variables.

b) Information represents data which have been organized or structured in a certain way, placed in

a context and having a particular meaning. Information shows the status of the production system

or of a part of such.

c) Knowledge is much more than that. It attempts to understand the process, to produce cause-

effect associations and to make predictions, to take prescriptive decisions. Bohn defines

technological knowledge as the understanding of the effects of input variables (x) over output

variables (Y). Given Y = f(x), technological knowledge is knowledge on the arguments and

behavior of f(x). It must be also remembered Bohn’s definition for the learning concept: learning is

the evolution of knowledge over time.

Knowledge cannot be measured only by its effects. The idea has taken shape of knowledge not as a

stock, but as a flow, and it is in exactly that flow that the combination is manifested of experience and

inspiration from people creating knowledge and applying it in technologic processes and in business

management. In a knowledge-creating company knowledge is not a specialized activity of the

research and development department. It is a behavior modality, a way of being. In such a company,

each individual is a knowledge worker, also meaning an enterpriser.

1.4. Is knowledge the novelty of global economy?In order to answer to the question “Is knowledge the novelty of global economy, or not” we

consider that we should first of all consider the following aspects which are closely connected to the

issues involved by the notions of information and knowledge, namely: “Have knowledge and

information always existed?”, “To what extent do they influence nowadays, more than ever,

mankind?”, “Are people only now starting to act according to the knowledge they have?”.

By analyzing the recent papers on complex issues such as “The New Economy”, “Knowledge or

information based society” (concept also found in the specialized papers published by Ovidiu

Nicolescu), “Internet”, there can be ascertained that the novelty of global economy is generated by the

very occurrence and making use of a new economic factor: knowledge8. The arguments in this respect

refer to the fact that during the last 50 years the production factors have been earth, work and capital,

and that the role of knowledge has been neglected as distinctive production factor. James W. Michaels

(1999) described as it follows the age undergone by mankind: Stone Age; Iron Age; Agriculture Age;

Industry Age; Technology Age; Knowledge Age.

In a graphic form, he presented such in the form of interconnecting time waves each with a growth

segment followed by decline in favor of the new growing wave. The last considered wave (age) is the

knowledge age, the growth of which is predicted without showing what could follow next. These ages

are recorded on an ascending scale in respect with the value they create, and the most effective from

this stand point is the knowledge age. The opinions of James W. Michaels are probably the first

theoretical conceptual inclusion of the knowledge society in line of the human history. The lack of

information age could be surprising, as such is not explicitly mentioned, however it is most likely divided

8 Dale Neef (coord.), The Economic Impact of Knowledge, Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, 1998.

7

in the author’s vision into technology age and knowledge age, the last mentioned one representing the

higher part of the information age. Actually, in the opinion of most specialists mankind is currently

undergoing the information age, the successive phases of which are:

a) The information society;

b) The knowledge society;

c) The conscience society.

Knowledge society is much more than informational society and informatics society. Actually, the

last two mentioned ones are included in the knowledge society. From the moment when Internet intervenes,

with its great advantages (e-mail, electronic commerce and electronic transactions, Internet market), by

including in the electronic information area as many citizens as possible, the shift is made towards

informational society. Knowledge is meaningful information and acting information. That is why knowledge

society is not possible unless connected to information society, of which it is inseparable. In the same time, it

is much more than informational society by the major role of information – knowledge in the society. The

best meaning for knowledge society is probably that of informational and knowledge society.

The name of knowledge society is nowadays used worldwide. This name is short for knowledge based

society.

The European commissioner Romano Prodi, chairman of the European Commission sometimes uses the

concept of knowledge based economy. In 2001, Deutschland magazine published a special edition

dedicated to knowledge society, in which Sther (2001): „The social order taking shape in the horizon is

based on knowledge. […] The knowledge volume at our disposal is doubled every five years. […]

Knowledge is becoming more and more basis and principles guiding people’s activity. In other words,

we are organizing reality by the knowledge we have. […] If the main feature of the modern society is

knowledge, then knowledge production, reproduction, distribution and achievement cannot remain un-

political. One of the most important issues we will confront during the next decay will be how to

monitor and control knowledge. This will lead to the development of a new branch of science policy:

knowledge policy. Knowledge policy will regulate the rapidly increasing volume of new knowledge in

the society and it will influence its development”.

The question to which we have decided to reflect throughout this sub-chapter, “Is knowledge the novelty of global economy, or not?” is answered in the aspects described in the following.

Information and knowledge regarded in their essence have always existed. The novelty is not the use

of knowledge, because mankind has always depended on this aspect. The novelty is that

Informational Society and Knowledge Society are capable to answer to the needs of the moment. The

question arises however: “Why a knowledge society? Hasn’t the evolution of the human society so far

based on knowledge?” The novelty arises from:

a) The speed by which knowledge are renewed (it is known that the knowledge volume at our

disposal doubles every five years);

b) The nature of the moving force animating social, economic and cultural changes exceeds the

world of informational technologies.

The renowned sociologist Peter Drucker has mentioned important changes in the society. Regarding

the integration of new technologies, Drucker mentioned that: “The world resulting from the current

8

rearrangement of values, beliefs, economic and social structures, political concepts and systems, in

other words of the views over the world will be different from what one could imagine today. In some

areas – and especially in respect with society and its structure – fundamental changes have already

occurred. The new society is actually certitude, and it is also certitude that its primary resource will be

information”.

2. The New EconomySpecialists forecast that the 21st century will represent a singular historic point, and that the evolution

speed of tools will overcome human assimilation and development capacity. This overcoming will

produce a shock wave equivalent to exceeding the sound level.

The future is of real time on-line activity. In other words, the future is of societies understanding to

transform as a whole into an active network and succeeding in speeding up its evolution or the self-

organization of which is integrated in the worldwide system, in the same time maintaining the identity

and control in the national sub-system grounded on universally accepted rules.

The importance of time and decreasing distances represent the true challenges of the 21st century.

The time factor, variable of economic growth, implies revealing at least two aspects regarding

economic growth, by means of which its analysis becomes more thorough, namely: how long is the

period in which the economic growth is achieved and how macro-economical indicators and total

population evolve within the considered time interval.

The time factor is becoming significant both in terms of the fight against resources’ rarity, by

rationalizing choices, and of the equal chances for generations, grounded on the social-human value of

hope.

Specialists consider that the information technological paradigm is not evolving towards closing, but

towards opening. The information technological paradigm is regarded as a strong force penetrating

down to the heart of life and spirit. Mankind evolution should be regarded in close correlation with the

multitude of development factors, with the complexity of the economical-social life, of the culture, identity

and not last of the environment.

2.1. The New Economy versus the Old Economy – historical and theoretical aspectsThe present paper provides a brief description of the differences between the New Economy and the

Old Economy, grounded on the evolution of such elements from a historical stand point, also

considering the implications of theoretical nature.

Richard Boulton described the difference between the old economy and the new one as it follows: in

the first one, the tangible goods are important, whilst in the second mentioned one, there are of

importance the intangible goods (assets) which create value. Intangible is immaterial, difficult to

describe and moreover to quantify and measure. Intangible assets (goods) are valuable and they

create value.

In respect with intangible goods, classifications represent guidelines and many comments on such

can be made, yet the one proposed by the European Commission provides a clear picture over their

structure9(see table 1).

Table 1. Company Assets Structure9 European Commission Enterprise DG - European Observatory on Intangible Assets, Policy Trends in Intangible Assets, 8 Nov. 2000, http://www.eu-intangibles.net.

9

http://www.eu-intangibles.net/

A. INTANGIBLE GOODS Human capital Continuous trainingKnowledge networksEntrepreneurship Personnel and know-howCompany values Managerial skills

Customers capital Clients networkMarketing strategyGoodwill

Organizational and functional capital

Company structureFunctioning (operating) procedures Research and development organizationSuppliers networkData bases and softwareInformation processing systems. Other procedures

B. TANGIBLE GOODS Physical assets

The actual structure of the New Economy can be schematically illustrated as it follows: “The New

Economy – Digital Economy (Internet market) + Acknowledging the value of intangible goods and their

use, mainly knowledge + Ensuring social sustainability compared against the environment + New

economic rules arising from the first three prerequisites”.

The evolution of the new economy should not be limited to the information sector, which represents a

process of extended consequences in the old, traditional economy. In the same time, the new economy

does not necessarily imply growth rates for the entire economy, which could exceed the average

performances of last years.

Gordon and Gundlach take a critical standpoint regarding the new economy’s potential of increasing

productivity, taking into account the failure and even collapsing of several known companies in the new

economy (dotcoms) in years 2000 and 2001, the slow down of the economic growth in the United States

in 200110. In conclusion, a more realistic assessment of changes induced by the new economy becomes

essential, in case a correct reflection is pursued of the nature and implications of the new economic

processes.

2.2. The New Economy – theoretical aspectsA term which has been more and more used in the last period is New Economy. In knowledge society

a new economy really takes shape, also incorporating the Internet economy. That is why the new

economy is the economy of information and knowledge society.

The term of new economy has been increasingly used during last years11. The rapidity by which the

informational society is transforming into an information and knowledge society generates an 10 See Gordon, R., Does the „New Economy" Measure Up to the General Invention ofthe Past?, in Journal of Economics Perspectives 14(4), 2000 and Gundlach, E., Interpreting Productivity Growth in the New Economy; Some Agnostic Notes, Kiel Working Papers 1020, Kiel, 2001.11 Conferinta Noua Economie - O sansa pentru Romania (Conference The New Economy – A Chance for Romania), organized by Arthur Andersen and Oracle, under grant of the Romanian Prime-Minister, Adrian Nastase, in collaboration with the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Resources, Bucharest, Marriott Hotel, 20th of March 2001.

10

understanding of the new economy that considers not only the Internet market and the effect of information on the Internet over all economic agents, but also the effect of knowledge as economic factor imposing acknowledgment of the intangible goods in general, in creating economic

value, as well as by the demands of achieving sustainable society, which besides the fact that it is

impossible unless for a knowledge society, will also impose in the social economy new industries,

orientation changes in relation to the classic economic thinking (for instance, resources, energy,

materials productivity before labor productivity)12.

The concept used by Romano Prodi, the chairman of the European Commission, namely that of

knowledge based economy (which he regarded as equivalent to the one of knowledge based society)

is closer to the standpoint expressed herein13. Often the concept of knowledge based economy or

knowledge driven economy is shortened in the form of knowledge economy, more and more used along

with the notion of new economy.

The new economy is based on creating knowledge, on using information in the economic area,

mainly by innovation.Given the nature of the new economy, it has been attempted to define it by means of a series of concepts,

such as:

a) Digital economy, because it refers to goods and services the production, development and

sale of which essentially depend on digital technologies;

b) Information economy, because it includes all goods and services regarding informational

technologies, such as: research, legal and banking services, financial services;

c) Virtual economy, because the environment in which transactions take place is not a

physical, but a virtual one;

d) Internet economy, because the working environment is the Internet;

e) E-commerce, e-banking and e-economy.

Two American authors, Kling and Lang14, suggest certain taxonomy in their attempt of introducing a

systematization of the new phenomenon. Thus, they suggest that the term of information economy should be used for the area of informational goods and services (from research and education to

advertising and show-biz). Also, they recommend the concept of digital economy in the case of those

goods and services where research – development – production – sale are vitally dependant on the

digital technology.

As regards to the term of new economy, these authors view as appropriate to use it in case of

interaction between information economy and digital economy, in order to emphasize the resulted

consequences, such as high growth, low inflation and a low unemployment level.

12 Ernst Ulrich von Weiszăcker, Amory B. Lovins, L.Hunter Lovins, Factor patru. Dublarea prosperitatii prin înjumatatirea consumului de resurse, Report for the Roma Club, Editura Tehnica, Bucuresti, 1998 (translation from German language).13 Romano Prodi, speech at the German Confederation of Trade Unions' (DGB) Federal Presidium, Brussels, 7 November 2000, apud Cordis Focus, European Commission, 20 November 2000.14 Kling, R., L. Roberta, I.T. and Organizational Change in Digital Economics. A Sociotechnical Approach, in E.Brynjolfsson, B. Kahin: Understanding the Digital Economy-Data, Tools and Research, MIT Presse, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2000.

11

Essentially, the new economy represents a wide concept describing an economy in which both the final

product, and its intermediary stages, represent information, and in which modern digital technologies

provide worldwide access to all information available upon a certain moment. These new technologies

have the role of enhancing efficiency in the conventional, traditional business practices and of easing

the occurrence of new processes and products.

The new economy can no longer be reduced to digital economy (or the Internet), because besides the

informational and knowledge society objective, in the 21st century mankind should also achieve the

stage of ecologically sustainable society15. This objective, on which mankind survival depends, cannot

be fulfilled without knowledge and knowledge management.

2.3. The New Economy and the implications of the innovation processesKnowledge economy represents a New Economy in which the innovation process (the ability of

assimilating and converting new knowledge in order to create new services and products) is becoming

decisive.

Innovation in the knowledge society aims to improve productivity, not only in respect with work and

capital, but also in respect with the natural energetic and material resources, and with environmental

protection. That is why the new economy implies encouraging the creation and development of

innovative enterprises upon its own knowledge structure.

Innovation in view of the new economy represents the capacity of assimilating and converting new knowledge in order to improve productivity and to create new products and services. The informational society has created the Internet market. The new role of information in the Internet

context has opened the period of a new economy. The influence of Internet as a market in the

informational society is the acknowledgment of the intangible goods’ (assets) value. Knowledge

represents a feature of the new economy.

3. Fundamental problems of the New Economy – recreating the spirit of the New EconomyAccording to the studies undertaking the problems of the new economy, there should be noticed that a

series of aspects exist which should be taken into consideration. The following questions exist: “Can

the issue of global poverty be overcome by means of the New Economy, or not?”, “Will the New

Economy aggravate the issue of global poverty, or will the new techniques and technologies, once

implemented, be able to cut down or to diminish the major disequilibrium faced by mankind today?”,

“Can we speak of sustainable development or of healthy development in case of the world countries?”,

“Is mankind getting closer or rapidly getting away from sustainable economic development?”, “Can we

consider organizations today as really competitive?”, “Which are the elements for a healthy

organization and can such elements be found in the New Economy?”, “Will mankind be able to

diminish the problems arising from underground economy?”, “Is it possible for the gap created by the

New Economy to be diminished by implementing safer means for performing internet transactions?”,

“Can we speak of really efficient control in the New Economy?”.

15 Acad. M. Draganescu, Societatea informationala si a cunoasterii. Vectorii societatii cunoasterii, (Information and Knowledge Society. Vectors of Knowledge Society) Chairman of the Science and Information Technology Section with the Romanian Academy, 2001.

12

The responsibility for scientific knowledge is the one which will lead to increasing worldwide

competitiveness. The issue of inter-human competition generates a series of negative aspects, which

can be also seen nowadays consequent to the existent major disequilibrium between world countries.

The individuals’ entering competition with the other individuals has generated the worst miseries (the

nuclear bomb, the creation of chemical weapons, the possibility of generating mutations of any level,

the occurrence of cloning even in the case of humans). What is really important is to create the

conditions for each individual to be able to compete with oneself. Only in this manner will the real

individual values be maintained and the responsibility spirit will be disseminated upon all social levels.

The issues of the economical-social development are interacting closer and closer in time and space,

given the context of increased role of the assembly over its components. Thus, the basis are

established of a new economic theory of development in view of rationality, given the limited

resources and hope, based on the ethics of equal chances for coexisting and succeeding generations.

The macro analysis of the economical processes, along with their dynamic approach, has shaped new

concepts, among which those regarding economic growth and development. Among the numerous

notions used in order to investigate macro-economical processes, the most frequent are the terms of

growth, development, technical progress, economic evolution, economic cycle etc. In respect with the

sense for the mentioned terms, smaller or larger differences exist between various authors, and also

certain convergence points, which make the said notions to be of universal nature.

Economic growth takes place in a certain space and time. The new social order imposed by

sustainable human development is grounded, in view of specialists, on eight basic principles:

refreshing economic growth; a certain quality of the economic growth; conserving and developing the

resources base; ensuring that population development level is maintained; technological reorientation

and risk control; integrating the environment and economic processes in the decision making action;

reforming international economic relations.

Bibliography:

1. Bohn, Roger E., Measuring and Managing Technological Knowledge, quoting Dale Neef

(coordinator).

2. Dale Neef (coord.), (1998) The Economic Impact of Knowledge, Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston.

3. Dragomirescu, H. (2004). „Riscuri asociate neutilizării activelor intangibile ca active economice

strategice", în: F.G. Filip, B. O Simionescu (coordonatori), Fenomene şi procese cu risc major la scară

naţională, Editura Academiei Române, Bucureşti, 2004, pp. 15-33

4. Drăgănescu, M. (2001) Societatea informationala si a cunoasterii. Vectorii societatii cunoasterii,

(Information and Knowledge Society. Vectors of Knowledge Society) Chairman of the Science and

Information Technology Section with the Romanian Academy.

5. Drucker, P. (2001). „The Next Society; a survey of the near future". The Economist, November 3rd, 2001,

pp. 3-20, http://economist. com/surveys/displaystory. cfm?story_id=770819 Eriksson, D. (1997). „A

principal exposition of Jean-Louis Le Moigne's systemic theory", Cybemetics and Human Knowing,

4(2-3), pp. 35-77

13

http://economist/

6. Gordon, R., Does the „New Economy" Measure Up to the General Invention of the Past?, in

Journal of Economics Perspectives 14(4), 2000 and Gundlach, E., Interpreting Productivity Growth

in the New Economy; Some Agnostic Notes, Kiel Working Papers 1020, Kiel, 2001.

7. Hodgson, Bernard (2001) Economics and Moral Science, Springer Verlag, Berlin, New York,

2001, p. 56.

8. Kling, R., L. Roberta, I.T. and Organizational Change in Digital Economics. A Sociotechnical

Approach, in E.Brynjolfsson, B. Kahin: Understanding the Digital Economy-Data, Tools and

Research, MIT Presse, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2000.

9. Loveridge, D., lan, M. (2004), European knowledge society foresight: the Euforia project synthesis

report, PREST, Manchester, http://www. eurofound. eu. int/publications/htmlfiles/ef0404.htm

10. Michaels, James W. (1999 October 11) How New is the New Economy?, Forbes.

11. Moore, N., (1997) The Information Society, World Information Report 1997/98, UNESCO

Publishing Paris.


13. Popescu, Constantin, (2002) Creşterea care sărăceşte (Growth that Generates Poverty), Tribuna

economică, no.29-31, Bucuresti.

14. Probst, G., Raub, S., Romhardt, K. (2000). Managing knowledge. Building blocks for success, John

Wiley and Sons, New York

15. Stehr, Nico (2001) A World Made of Knowledge, Deutschland, No.l, www.magazine-

deutschland.de

16. Ernst Ulrich von Weiszăcker, Amory B. Lovins, L.Hunter Lovins, Factor patru. Dublarea

prosperitatii prin înjumatatirea consumului de resurse, Report for the Roma Club, Editura

Tehnica, Bucuresti, 1998 (translation from German language).

17. Wurster, T. S., Evans, P., Blown to Bits, How the New Economics of Information Transforms

Strategy, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts, Hardcover, 2000. Microsoft

Reader edition (eBook), 2000.

18. Corporate Social Responsibility. A business contribution to sustainable development, 2002

Commission of the European Communities COM/2002 347 final




20. Green Paper. Promoting a European Framework for Corporate Social Responsibility, 2001,

European Commission, Luxemburg, p.8






14



http://www.magazine-deutschland.de/

http://www.magazine-deutschland.de/

http://www/



24. European Commission Enterprise DG - European Observatory on Intangible Assets, Policy

Trends in Intangible Assets, 8 Nov. 2000, http://www.eu-intangibles.net.

25. Conferinta Noua Economie - O sansa pentru Romania (Conference The New Economy – A

Chance for Romania), organized by Arthur Andersen and Oracle, under grant of the Romanian

Prime-Minister, Adrian Nastase, in collaboration with the Ministry of Communication and

Information Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Resources, Bucharest, Marriott Hotel, 20th

of March 2001.

26. Romano Prodi, speech at the German Confederation of Trade Unions' (DGB) Federal Presidium,

Brussels, 7 November 2000, apud Cordis Focus, European Commission, 20 November 2000.

15

http://www.eu-intangibles.net/

http://ue/

Trecerea la Noua Economie. Trăsături şi Caracteristici

Autori: Prep. drd. Nistor Maria-Cristina, Lector univ. dr. Iordănoaia Florin

Universitatea Maritima din ConstantaTel: 0726.903.396

E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The New Economy is a business economy that includes every type of business built around

the Internet in connection with other important processes like globalization, durable development and

innovation. Some of the characteristics of the New Economy, like the fact that New Economy

represents the shift from economy based on steel to one based on silicon used for microprocessors,

are presented in the following sections. This workpaper has the purpose to present, to comment and

to exemplify upon a few of the various features of the New Economy trends and to give a general

perspective upon the changes that influenced the exceeding of the classic period.

Introducere

Era Industrială, caracterizată de economia clasică a apărut şi a apus demult. În prezent trăim

în Societatea Informaţională, tot capitalistă ca şi economia clasică, dar care are la bază Noua

Economie sau Economia Cunoaşterii. Noua Economie se caracterizează în principal prin dominarea

acesteia de către procesul de revoluţionare a tehnologiei informaţionale şi a comunicaţiilor, tehnologii

ce modifică profund activităţile economice şi sociale.

Noua Economie are însă numeroase alte trăsături şi caracteristici ce o diferenţiază de

economia clasică.

Până în acest moment tema Noii Economii a fost abordată din mai multe puncte de vedere,

atât de către autori români cât şi de autori străini. Denumirea de „ Nouă Economie” este echivalentă

cu sensul termenului „knowledge-based economy”. În limba română, traducerea acestui termen ridică

anumite controverse. Sensul termenului de „cunoaştere” din traducerea iniţială „economie bazată pe

cunoaştere” trimite la sensul din DEX „a lua cunoştinţă de obiectele şi de fenomenele înconjurătoare,

reflectate în conştiinţă, a stabili în chip obiectiv natura, proprietăţile unui lucru, relaţiile dintre fenomene

şi a le da o interpretare conformă cu adevărul, activităţi ce au existat dintotdeauna, odată cu apariţia

oamenilor”. Unii autori au adoptat însă traducerea de „economie bazată pe cunoştinţe”, pornind de la

premisa că în general cunoştinţele reprezintă principalul „input” al Noi Economii.

Potrivit lui Ovidiu Nicolescu, Noua Economie a apărut în urma unor cauze de natură tehnică şi

tehnologică: diversificarea proceselor informaţionale şi de comunicaţii, apariţia nanotehnologiilor şi

biotehnologiilor, precum şi în urma unor cauze de natură umană: modificările în pregătirea şi în

volumul de cunoştinţe al resurselor umane, accesul la o cantitate mare de informaţii prin intermediul

internetului şi accentuarea disponibilităţii spre inovare.(Nicolescu, 2005)

Dintr-o altă abordare, în opinia lui Daniele Archibugi şi B.A. Lundval, trăsăturile de bază ale

Noii Economii sunt globalizarea şi digitalizarea.( Archibugi, Lundval, 2001)

1. Definirea conceptului de „Noua Economie”

Pentru început, consider ca fiind necesar de menţionat distincţia dintre sensul economic al

conceptului de „Societatea Informaţională” şi „Noua Economie”. În primul rând, Noua Economie sau

Economia Cunoaşterii reprezintă o extindere a societăţii informaţionale. În al doilea rând, trebuie avut

în vedere sensul diferit al termenilor „informaţie” şi „cunoştinţe”. Potrivit lui Alan Burton Jones, datele sunt definite ca fiind un semnal ce poate fi trimis de la un emiţător la un receptor – fiinţă umană sau alt

destinatar (Jones, 1999). Informaţiile reprezintă date care aduc receptorului un plus de cunoaştere iar

cunoştinţele sunt alcătuite din informaţii şi conţin elemente cu valoare adăugată, care sunt aplicabile,

generatoare de soluţii şi de substanţă economică. Cu alte cuvinte, pentru realizarea unui proces

economic de genul construirii motorului unui utilaj inovativ care să ducă la simplificarea activităţii de

producţie într-o întreprindere, nu este suficientă deţinerea de date şi informaţii inginereşti (rezultate din

calcule şi măsurători mecanice, electronice etc.) sau economice (calcule pentru măsurarea

productivităţii, analiza rentabilităţii construcţiei utilajului etc.). Pentru ca motorul respectiv să poată fi

construit, personalul executant trebuie să deţină o serie de cunoştinţe extinse, din domenii largi,

pornind de exemplu de la modul de scriere, citire, măsurare, proiectare şi până la stabilirea de

corelaţii, în funcţie de experienţa personală, cu activităţi similare de producţie realizate anterior sau

corelaţii cu utilaje asemănătoare, construite în alte ţări.

Noua Economie reprezintă starea actuală a societăţii care, spre deosebire de economia

clasică, prezintă anumite elemente de diferenţiere apărute în urma influenţei unor fenomene şi

procese noi, apărute în ceastă perioadă, precum globalizarea, dezvoltarea durabilă, comerţul

electronic, inovarea etc.

2. Caracteristici ale procesului de trecere la Noua Economie

Trecerea la o nouă stare de fapt a societăţii s-a realizat în urma apariţiei unor factori care nu

sunt doar de natură economică, ci şi de natură ştiinţifică (ingineria genetică, cucerirea spaţiului extra-

terestru), de mediu (modificările climaterice), socială (adâncirea diviziunii claselor sociale), politică

(războaie şi crize conflictuale), demografică (migrarea populaţiei dinspre mediul rural spre mediul

urban, precum şi dinspre ţările în curs de dezvoltare spre ţările dezvoltate), tehnologică (invenţiile în

plan tehnologic) etc. În continuare ne vom opri asupra câtorva dintre factorii de impact ce au favorizat

trecerea la Noua economie.

2.1 Implicaţiile ingineriei genetice în Noua Economie

În Noua Economie se realizează investiţii masive în aplicaţiile ingineriei genetice. Ingineria

genetică reprezintă un ansamblu de metode si tehnici care permit fie introducerea în materialul genetic

al unei celule, a uneia sau a mai multor gene noi, fie modificarea unor gene prezente deja într-o

celulă. Ingineria genetică mai este numită şi “modificare genetică” iar produsele obţinute se numesc

“organisme modificate genetic” (OMG) sau “organisme transgenice”. Transferul de gene se face fie

pentru mărirea rezistenţei la diverşi factori nocivi, fie în scopul sporirii productivităţii. Introducerea

alimentelor modificate genetic în agricultura SUA şi a Europei au impulsionat , pe de o parte,

producţiile agricole dar, pe de altă parte, au creat proteste şi polemici de natură etică, biologică şi

medicală. Alimentele şi seminţele modificate genetic capătă caracteristici fizice superioare şi au

capacitatea de a supravieţui eventualilor dăunători. Cultivarea acestor alimente au rolul de a potenţa

agricultura şi comerţul unei ţări, însă s-a constatat că numeroşi dăunători se adaptează rapid la noile

plante, ceea ce duce la apariţia de dezechilibre în ecosisteme. În acest moment nu este cunoscut care

este efectul acestor tipuri de alimente asupra sănătăţii oamenilor pe termen lung iar organizaţiile

ecologice luptă pentru interzicerea totală a organismelor modificate genetic.

Specialiştii avertizează că operaţiunile de modificare genetică care se realizează la scară

industrială au şi alte efecte negative, cum ar fi impactul asupra biodiversităţii, prin eliminarea unor

specii naturale care nu mai fac faţă competiţiei cu organismele modificate genetic.[4]

2.2. Schimbările climaterice şi efectele multiple ale acestora

Analiştii Noii Economii, economişti, finanţatori, organisme guvernamentale, evaluează

influenţa asupra economiei produsă de către schimbărie climaterice. Sunt avute în vedere efectele

acestor schimbări asupra modificării PIB-ului ţărilor afectate de manifestările puternice ale naturii,

afectarea agriculturii din cauza inundaţiilor şi taifunurilor care apar în mod neprevăzut, distrugerea de

locuinţe din cauza cutremurelor şi alte fenomene şi elemente naturale distuctive care afectează

deficitul balanţei bugetare.

În Noua Economie se promovează tot mai mult conceptul de „dezvoltare durabilă” care are în

vedere totalitatea modalităţilor de dezvoltare socio-economică, ţinând cont de protejarea

mediului.Trebuie să ţinem cont de faptul că Noua Economie presupune o globalizare a comerţului, în

sensul extinderii şi dezvoltării acestuia în cadrul „satului global” („global village”), extindere ce de multe

ori nu respectă princiii de dezvoltare durabilă.

Dezvoltarea comerţului presupune o cantitate, în continuă creştere, de produse transportate

prin diferite modalităţi de transport. Atât producătorii cât şi transportatorii de marfă ar trebui să

conştientizeze faptul că utilizarea de autoturisme pe căile rutiere de transport are impact semnificativ

asupra schimbărilor climatice, circa 12% din emisiile totale din UE fiind reprezentate de dioxidul de

carbon (CO2), principalul gaz cu efect de seră, provenit de la combustibilul consumat de autoturisme.

Potrivit unui raport al Agenţiei Europene de Mediu (EEA), făcut public în data de 12 martie 2007 la

Copenhaga, emisiile de gaze cu efect de seră provenite din transporturi rămân încă un obstacol major,

deşi nu imposibil de evitat, în calea îndeplinirii de către UE a obiectivelor de la Kyoto (Japonia) privind

schimbările climatice. Acordul de la Kyoto urmăreşte reducerea treptată a volumului de emisii de gaze

cu efect de seră, care sunt considerate responsabile pentru încălzirea globală şi schimbările climatice.

Uniunea Europeană se află în centrul eforturilor internaţionale pentru combaterea schimbărilor

climatice şi Comisia a propus în ianuarie 2007 să urmărească, în contextul negocierilor internaţionale,

reducerea cu 30% a emisiilor de gaze cu efect de seră din toate sectoarele economice, până în anul

2020 (în comparaţie cu nivelurile din 1990).[5] Raportul EEA, „Transporturile şi mediul: spre o nouă

politică comună de transporturi”, menţionează că în timp ce emisiile provenite din majoritatea celorlalte

sectoare (furnizare de energie, industrie, agricultură, gestionarea deşeurilor) au scăzut între 1990 şi

2004, emisiile provenite din transporturi au crescut substanţial din cauza cererii mari în acest domeniu.

Transporturile rutiere produc 93% din totalul emisiilor de gaze cu efect de seră provenite din

transporturi. Deşi s-au înregistrat îmbunătăţiri semnificative în tehnologia vehiculelor, în special în

eficienţa combustibilului, acest lucru nu a fost suficient pentru a neutraliza efectul traficului crescut şi a

dimensiunilor tot mai mari ale autoturismelor. În timp ce UE şi-a redus, pe ansamblu, emisiile de gaze

cu efect de seră cu doar 5% în perioada 1990-2004, emisiile de CO2 provenite din transportul rutier au

crescut cu 26%.

În Noua Economie numărul autoturismelor utilizate de populaţie s-a mărit într-un ritm

extraordinar. Dacă pentru companiile producătoare de autotutrisme, Noua Economie aduce un număr

foarte mare de clienţi şi o creştere simţitoare a profiturilor înregistrate, pentru mediu folosirea acestor

autoturisme are un impact semnificativ, în special asupra încălzirii globale cauzate de cantitatea de

gaze emise. În consecinţă, încălzirea globală influenţează negativ agricultura, fiind necesară

schimbarea politicii agricole în sensul cultivării acelor soiuri care să reziste la temperaturi ridicate şi la

condiţii de secetă. O altă influenţă negativă a încălzirii globale şi agravează constă în topirea calotei

glaciare, care, potrivit specialiştilor, duce la inundaţii şi la extincţia anumitor clase de animale.

2.3. Dependenţa de petrol – problemă strigentă a Noii Economii

În cadrul Noii Economii se amplifică dependenţa statelor lumii de consumul de petrol. În

momentul actual, se constată manifestarea unei crize energetice pe plan mondial. Această criză duce

la creşterea preţului petrolului datorită limitării accesului la resursele de petrol. Statele membre ale

Uniunea Europeană deţin doar 0,6 % din rezervele mondiale de petrol şi circa 2 procente din rezervele

de gaze. În schimb, consumul de petrol în Uniunea Europeană reprezintă circa 17 la sută din

consumul la nivel mondial. În aceste condiţii, Uniunea Europeană este un importator net de energie,

iar dependenţa de resursele externe se va accentua şi în anii următori. Creşterea dependenţei faţă de

petrol şi creşterea preţurilor la ţiţei pe plan mondial (din 1996 pînă în 2006, preţul ţiţeiului a crescut de

trei ori) fac Europa din ce în ce mai vulnerabilă pe plan politic şi economic iar în prezent, ca răspuns,

Uniunea Europeană caută soluţii la dependenţa de petrol provenit din Rusia, din zona instabilă a

Orientului Mijlociu sau din ţările OPEC.

2.4 Necesitatea învăţării continue a resursei umane.

În Noua Economie angajaţii şi cunoştinţele acestora reprezintă cea mai importantă resursă a

unei întreprinderi, datorită faptului că generează valoare adăugată şi contribuie aproape în întregime

la obţinerea de profit. O companie nu poate exista fără oameni. Dacă în Era Industrială, concepţia

socială de bunăstare a oamenilor era în legătură directă cu obţinerea unei diplome de studii căreia îi

urma, în mod evident, o slujbă sigură şi bună la care individul mergea toată viaţa, în Noua Economie

regulile s-au schimbat. Procesele economice din cadrul firmelor s-au amplificat şi, pentru a se reduce

costurile de personal cu angajarea de noi specialişti într-un anumit domeniu, întreprinderile caută

acum indivizi multicalificaţi şi mereu informaţi cu schimbările ce survin apărute în mediul exterior al

companiei. În perioada actuală, indivizii trebuie să obţină calificări şi diplome de studii, după care să îşi

găsească o slujbă şi apoi să se reinstruiască permanent pentru slujba respectivă. Şi de cele mai multe

ori, indivizii din Noua Economie nu îşi mai păstrează aceeaşi slujbă, ci se remodelează în funcţie de

cererea de forţă de muncă de pe piaţa muncii. Având ca punct de pornire Legea lui Moore, comentată

pe larg în următorul subcapitol, o trăsătură a Noii Economii este aceea că volumul de cunoştinţe se

dublează o dată la fiecare 18 luni, iar factorul uman trebuie să ţină pasul cu aceste schimbări. De

aceea, companiile caută să îşi recompenseze angajaţii oferindu-le în cadrul pachetului salarial, pe

lângă ăsuri de stimulare de natură financiară, o grilă gratuită de instruire, concretizată prin trimiterea

la traininguri sau finanţarea unor programe educative de tip MBA, de pe urma cărora compania va

avea mai târziu de câştigat.

2.5 Dezvoltarea tehnologiei şi menţinerea valabilităţii Legii lui Moore

În Era Industrială, teoria ce a marcat epoca era formula lui Einstein, E=mc2. În Noua

Economie, teoria definitorie este Legea lui Moore, care nu este o lege în sensul ştiinţific al cuvântului,

ci o observaţie bazată pe analiza tendinţelor dintr-o perioadă de 6 ani în domeniul electronicii. Veche

de 43 de ani, în Noua Economie Legea lui Moore rămâne valabilă. La data de 19 aprilie 1965, în

revista Electronics a apărut un articol al inginerului Gordon Moore, director al departamentului de

cercetări din compania Fairchild Semiconductors şi viitorul cofondator al corporaţiei Intel. În cadrul

articolului, acesta a prognozat dezvoltarea microelectronicii pentru următorii 10 ani şi a prezis că

numărul elementelor cristalice a microschemelor se va dubla în fiecare an [6]. Moore a susţinut că

dezvoltarea procesării şi a comunicaţiilor va avea un ritm accelerat şi a observat în dezvoltarea

microelectronicii o tendinţă ce a definit strategia de afaceri a companiilor de profil, transformate în

pionii unei industrii IT de miliarde de dolari.

Gordon Moore a mai observat că creşterea exponenţială a numărului de circuite integrate se

va realiza concomitent cu reducerea preţurilor. Conoscută sub denumirea de „Legea lui Moore”,

această observaţie a devenit sinonimă cu ideologia schimbării tehnologice rapide, conform căreia

„cantitatea de informaţie se dublează la fiecare 18 luni” (Kiosaky, 2007). În 1975, Moore a susţinut

faptul că numărul tranzistorilor incluşi într-un circuit integrat se dublează la aproximativ doi ani,

afirmaţie verificată în timp.

Fig.1 : Multiplicarea numărului de tranzistori în cadrul procesoarelor Intel. Sursa: www.intel.com

Microprocesoarele guvernează Noua Economie, fiind prezente în toate sectoarele vieţii

sociale şi economice, de la echipamentele cu panouri de comandă utilizate în construcţii, în industria

energetică, transport, comunicaţii şi în infrastructură, până la jucării. În prezent, „o carte poştală

muzicală în valoare de doar câţiva dolari conţine un microprocesor mai puternic decât cele mai rapide

calculatoare mainframe produse cu câţiva zeci de ani în urmă” [8].

Dacă oţelul a reprezentat principala resursă materială a secolului XX, în secolul XXI acesta a

fost înlocuit de siliciu. Industria de semiconductori din siliciu a exeprimentat o rapidă reducere a

costurilor, în paralel cu o creştere exponenţială a valorii inovării. Siliciul reprezintă principalul element

brut ce intră în componenţa microprocesoarelor de la baza lumii digitale, microprocesoare ce intră în

componenţa unei mase imense de produse, de la telefoane mobile şi PC-uri, până la echipamente

pentru industria spaţială.

Radhakrishna Hiremane, Technical Marketing Engineer la Intel Corporation, consideră că

următorele milioane de utilizatori de produse tehnologice digitale vor proveni din părţi ale globului fără

tradiţie în industria tehnologică: Europa de Est, America Latină sau Orientul Mijlociu. Aceşti utilizatori

vor iniţia următorul val de dezvoltare a industriei tehnologice ce are la bază siliciul ca materie primă.

Avalanşa de inovaţii în plan tehnologic este în permanentă extindere. De exemplu, corporaţia Intel se

orientează spre fabricarea de procesoare ce vor avea de la sute sau mii de pini la milioane de

conexiuni.( Hiremane, 2005).

În opinia lui Sean Maloney, vicepreşedinte executiv la Intel Communications Group, tranziţia la

Noua Economie presupune trecerea de la abordări exclusiviste mai costisitoare către o abordare

modulară bazata pe building block-urile standard la nivelul industriei. Companiile care vor avea succes

în Noua Economie vor fi cele care vor adopta mai rapid abordarea de design modular, care este mai

rapidă şi eficientă din punct de vedere al costului. [10]

Designul modular presupune flexibilitate, astfel încât un produs construit pe un astfel de

concept să poată fi adaptat şi extins pentru a veni în întâmpinarea cererilor clienţilor. De exemplu, faţă

de un sistem electronic bancar clasic ce realizează operaţiunile de plată într-o limbă de circulaţie

internaţională (limba engleză sau franceză), sistemul electronic bancar modular are, în plus, module

de plată adaptate la standardele locale.

Un alt exemplu de dezvoltare tehnologică, cu multiple implicaţii în comerţ, distribuţie, transport

şi în alte sectoare, îl constituie tehnologia RFID (radio frequency identification). Aceasta s-a impus

pornind de la conceptul de radar. Începând cu cel de-al doilea război mondial, când a fost inventat

radarul, nu puteau fi distinse electronic avioanele britanice şi cele germane, iar introducerea unui

emiţător IFF (identification friend or foe) a permis diferenţierea semnalelor emise. În anul 1999, la

Massachusetts Institute of Technology a început să se studieze modul în care lanţurile de distribuţie ar

putea să beneficieze de această tehnologie. Ideea iniţială era următoarea: într-un magazin,

cumpărătorul se îndreaptă spre casa de marcat cu ultimele sale achiziţii, şi în loc să mai aştepte ca

angajatul să scaneze codul de bare al fiecărui produs în parte, pentru a face totalul, totul are loc

instantaneu prin intemediul unui cititor RFID care identifică toate produsele pe baza etichetei RFID.

Singura operaţiune constă în introducerea cărţii de credit pentru a reţine suma totală. În plus,

lanţul de retail îşi poate actualiza automat stocurile, identifică starea produsului şi toate detaliile de

care are nevoie pentru a face o ofertă competitivă cu care să îşi mai deschidă încă 5 magazine, prin

intermediul etichetei RFID. În realitate, sistemul RFID se bazează pe identificarea oricărui obiect pe

care s-a ataşat o etichetă ce emite un cod electronic unic (eticheta RFID). Nici o etichetă RFID nu este

identică cu alta, aşa cum se întâmplă în acest moment cu codurile de bare şi de aceea primele

sisteme RFID au fost introduse în clădirile în care era nevoie de nivele certe de securitate. Însă

tehnologia este aplicabilă pentru orice obiect, chiar şi pentru cele aflate în mişcare, şi de aceea nu a

durat foarte mult până a atras atenţia celor implicaţi în distribuţie şi, respectiv, în transportul maritim.

Spre deosebire de codurile de bare, folosite în acest moment ca standard, etichetele RFID au

avantajul de a putea conţine şi alte date în afară de preţ, precum caracteristicile sale, data la care a

fost mutat dintr-un loc în altul şi temperatura la care se află. În aproximativ doi ani, experţii consideră

că preţul unei etichete RFID ar putea ajunge la 5 cenţi iar peste 6 - 8 ani, se estimează că preţul va

ajunge la 1 cent. În prezent, tehnologia RFID este adoptată în străinătate de filiale unor mari companii

de retail ca Metro sau Wal Mart.

Mai trebuie menţionat că în Noua Economie au apărut o serie de produse simbolice, fără

caracteristici fizice esenţiale ce se bazează pe informaţii, ca de exemplu cardurile, bankingul

electronic, pachetele de programe pentru calculatoare, proiecte, oferirea de servicii de consultanţă etc.

2.6. Transmiterea rapidă a informaţiilor şi cunoştinţelor

În Noua Economie informaţiile şi cunoştinţele se transmit în cantităţi mari şi cu viteze foarte mici. În

această perioadă observăm extinderea la scară largă a vehiculării cunoştinţelor la nivele

http://a.softpedia.com/adclick.php?n=abda331e

intersectoriale şi intrasectoriale. Cunoştinţele se găsesc în toate sferele activităţii economice şi

influenţează desfăşurarea proceselor organizaţiilorUn bun exemplu de a evidenţia tendinţa de

răspândire rapidă a cunoştinţelor în cadrul Noii Economii, precum şi accesibilitatea informaţiilor din

cele mai vaste domenii la care nici nu se spera în economia clasică, este chiar cel referitor la

resursele bibliografice utilizate în această lucrare. În urma utilizării unui motor de căutare de informaţii

virtuale, am găsit o serie de reviste în format electronic cu informaţie relevantăpentru subiectele

analizate. Informaţiile despre Legea lui Moore au fost selectate din versiunea electronică a revistei de

IT&C “Market Watch” precum şi din revista în format electronic Technology@Intel Magazine, care are

o extindere foarte mare, având ediţii internaţionale traduse în 4 limbi: portugheza, rusă, chineză

simplificată şi spaniolă. O altăsursăbibliografică este revista Business Wire care este liderul de piaţă

global în distribuţia electronică de ştiri de comerţ. Mii de companii membre şi organizaţii trimit prin

intermediul Business Wire articolele, comunicate de presă, pecum şi documente multimedia către alţi

jurnalişti, manageri, investitori, autorităţi şi publicul general. Observăm o deplasare a surselor de

informare în masă către domeniul electronic, care se poate explica pornind de la dezvoltarea

comerţului electronic, cu produse vândute prin intermediul magazinelor virtuale. În comerţul electronic

nu mai este necesară achiziţionarea sau închirierea unui clădiri pentru sediu, întrucât toate afacerile

se desfăşoară în mediul virtual, pe bază de comenzi şi livrări de produse, echipamentul cheie

constând în calculatoare, telefoane şi fax, precum şi în personal cu cunoştinţe de utilizare a

echipamentului.

Concluzii:

Pentru ca România să se adapteze fără o peroadăde decalaj la Noua Economie, nu este

suficientă doar adaptarea legislaţiei la Uniunea Europeană. Trebuie avut în vedere că sunt necesare

investiţii masive în educaţie, cercetare şi dezvoltare realizate de către guvern şi investiţii, precum şi

subvenţionări în domeniul tehnologic care este, în prezent, timid dezvoltat pe plan naţional. România

trebuie să se pregătească pentru intratea în rândul fabricanţilor următoarei generaţii de produse

digitale ale Noii economii, evoluate tehnologic, dar si pentru alimentele modificate genetic. Un prim

pas pentru încurajarea dezvoltării activităţilor tehnologice a fost realizat deja prin înfiinţarea unor

instituţii precum Comisia „Forumul pentru Societatea Informaţională” a Academiei Române de pe

lângă Secţia de ştiinţa şi tehnologia informaţiei, care îşi propune să sensibilizeze societatea

românească în legătură cu dezvoltarea societăţii informaţionale şi să impulsioneze prin propuneri

concrete o serie de măsuri şi acţiuni în această direcţie. Însă acesta este doar un mic pas raportat la o

Nouă Economie ce impune schimbări de proporţii.

Biliografie:

[1] Nicolescu, O., Luminiţa, O., Economia, firma şi managementul bazate pe cunoştinţe, Ed.

Economică, Bucureşti, 2005

[2] Daniele Archibugi, B.A. Lundval, The Globalizing Learning Economy, Oxford University Press,

Oxford, 2001, p.21-23

[3] A.B. Jones, Knowledge Capitalism-Business, Work and Learning in the New Economy, Oxford

University Press, 1999

[4] ***, Alimentele Modificate genetic alarmează autorităţile europene, articol Magna News, 23 aprilie

2007 [5] Comunicarea Comisiei către Consiliu şi Parlamentul European, Rezultatele revizuirii Strategiei

Comunităţii de reducere a emisiilor de CO2 provenite de la autoturisme şi vehicule utilitare uşoare

COM(2007) 19 final, EC(2007) 60, Bruxelles, 7.2.2007.

[6]http://www.cnews.ro/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=71&Itemid=37

[7] Robert T. Kiyosaki, Copil bogat, copil isteţ: startul financiar în viaţă, Ed. a 2-a, Ed. Curtea Veche,

Bucureşti, 2007

[8] Revista Market Watch IT& C nr. 75, mai 2005, secţiunea Diverse

[9] Radhakrishna Hiremane, From Moore’s Law to Intel Innovation—Prediction to Reality,

Technology@Intel Magazine, aprilie 2005.

[10] Intel Calls for Modular Approach for Building Flexible, Cost-effective Communications Equipment,

Business Wire, Berkshire Hathaway, 26 Februarie 2002.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2002_Feb_26/ai_83286764/pg_1

THE E-COMMERCE GLOBALISATION, AN UNDENIABLE SUCCESS

Drd. Cioban Gabriela-LilianaUniversitatea “Ştefan cel Mare” SuceavaFacultatea de Ştiinţe Economice şi Administraţie PublicăStr. Universităţii nr.13 Suceava 720229Universitatea “Al. I. Cuza” IaşiFacultatea de Economie şi Administrarea AfacerilorŞcoala Doctorală de [email protected]

Abstract:The electronic commerce is in a full process of development and its success are numerous and

evident. On-line transactions have unfurled all over the world, the e-commerce is following the quick

development of the Internet technology and World Wide Web.

E-commerce allows businessmen to sell products and services to the consumers all over the

world. The e-commerce became a leading way to gain success in business in the 21st century. The

electronic transaction of the goods and services constitutes an extension of the actual commerce. It

also obtains a raised efficiency, the reduction of the cost and regarding the marketing effect.

The electronic commerce has a powerful impact over the firms competitiveness, it is not

restricted by the states boundaries, but it depends on the existence/inexistence of the computers

networks. The e-commerce positively influences not only the activity of the small and medium

enterprises but also helps the clients by offering never ending options.

Key words: E-commerce, Internet, Globalization, On-line, Type of business, e-commerce, E-Payment, B2B

INTRODUCTION:A great importance is permissible to the e-commerce regarding its competitiveness and future

development of the industrialized countries’ economies in the framework of the global informational

society. One cause of this development is the quick change of the data and informational technology.

The ethnic process in the field of informational technology and communication is used as a technology

in almost every economical field and in every workplace.

The term “electronic commerce“ (“e-commerce” or “internet commerce”) has not an accepted

unanimous definition; it is referring in a large way to the “ development of some economical activities

through the Internet meaning selling goods and services on the Internet. According to some

characteristics of the transactional goods, these can be direct delivered on the Internet, or can be

delivered by people, as a rule at the buyers home address.”


The e-commerce development gives an impulse to the globalization process through the

overcoming borders of the traditional commerce. The firms and the interested consumers from all over

the world where is a computer connected to the Net can access an Internet site.

The assiduous development of the last two decades of the informational technology determined

by the necessity of stoking and quick data transmission with the lowest costs has revived the global

commerce, the engross or en detailed one, redefining the classical principals of the marketing. Today,

the term “e-commerce” has become synonym with the profit’s rise.

The globalization triumph brought the emergence of the “new economy”, which is based on the

informational and tele-communicational technology and the Internet.

At the planetary scale globalization was realized at the end of the Second Millennium and the

beginning of the Third Millennium on economical, social, cultural, technological and military domain.

On economical domain, the globalization has devoted the domination of the capitalist economy

on the market.

The European Union grants a great attention to the development of the informational society

according to the stipulations of the Lisbon Agenda.

The development of the informational technology influences the world economy creating new

industry units, the diversity of the existent ones and also the labor force potential market and the

degree of the future occupancy of it.

THE E-COMMERCE - BUSINESS SUCCESS The business success in the 21st century is represented by the e-commerce, which has known

and will know an ascendant trend having as prove the continual growth of the virtual aboriginal shops

number.

The e-commerce has become an important component of the economical development policies

of the developed countries’ governments (USA, European Union, Japan, etc.)

The e-commerce has two main components: the Business-to-Business commerce, where the

transactions are unfurling between firms (e.g. rtcoffice.ro) and the Business-to Consumer commerce,

which refers to the relations between sellers and the final consumer. (e.g. emania.ro, amazon.com).

There are also other possibilities of participation at the e-commerce transactions or at the

informational exchange. The Internet facilities the interaction between the participants, it creates virtual

shops for different goods and services. These markets offer the participants the possibility to transact

with other consumers (Consumer-to-Consumer or C2C), consumers which sell direct to other

consumers (ex: okazii.ro, ebay.com); or with firms (Consumer-to-Business or C2B) – physical persons

(consumers) which use the Internet to sell their products or services to the firms and/ or are in search

of sellers to bid for the products or the services they need (ex: telejob.ro, priceline.com); or with the

govern – E-government: Government-to-business (G2B) a model of e-commerce where a

governmental institution buy or sell goods, services or information from the juridical persons (e-

licitaţie.ro); Government-to-consumer (G2C): has covering relations of the govern-citizens type at the

information level and performing public services (e.g.: the on-line payment of the taxes ).

The E-commerce is the key of the industry competitiveness in an informational era by assuring:

a. Firms benefices:

• Extension to the international markets;

• The cost decrease of creation, evolution, distribution, keeping and finding of information based

on paper;

• Create the possibility of modeling the products and the services on customers’ needs;

• Lowering the communicational costs.

b. Consumers benefices:

• Gives customers the possibility to buy or to make transactions 24h/day, all over the year from

almost every location;

• Grant the consumers more possibilities to choose;

• The buyers can easily choose the lowest price for a product or a service;

• It permits a quick delivery of products and/or services (in certain cases);

• The consumers can receive the relevant information within seconds, not days or weeks;

• It facilitates the participation at virtual bids;

• It allows the consumers to interact with other buyers in electronic communities and to compare

the experiences;

• It facilitates the competition, having as a result the prices’ decrease.

c. Society benefices:

• It gives the possibility for many people to work at home and to buy from home having as a

result a less traffic on the streets and the decrease of the air pollution;

• It allows that some merchandise to be sold at lower prices with advantages for those with

smaller income;

• It raises the efficiency and /or improves the quality.

d. Limiters of the e-commerce:

• There is a shortage of the universal accepted standards for quality, security and trust;

• The software tools are at the height of evolution;

• There are some difficulties between e-commerce soft application and Internet with some old

preexistent applications and date bases;

• The Internet access is still expensive and / or unseasonable.

The e-commerce initiatives can generate decreases of the costs, raises of the incomes and

operational efficiency for the companies that have in mind to gain an advantage in a competitive

economical environment from our days.

The online European market is affected by the existence of a fragmented settlement

framework, by a lack of clear and friendly standards regarding the access to the online products

protected by copyright, as well as the severe misunderstandings between the participants dealing

with fundamental issues such as the payment system of the taxes for the media content taking

over.

In European Union the preoccupation for taxation of the e-commerce activities had a powerful

manifestation. In 1998 were established the directing lines regarding the taxation of the e-

commerce.

An important part of the payments for the online acquisitions is done through the traditional

payment methods: paper checks, cash at delivery or before delivery.

Among the modern instruments of payment used today for the e-commerce we have:

a. B2B:

• Conventional means of payment;

• Electronic checks (digital signature + PKI);

• B2B Internet banking;

• Other means of payment.

b. B2C:

• Debit/credit cards;

• Electronic money;

• Payment system for a certain country-depend on the country tradition;

• Electronic payment systems using the mobile phone;

• Interactive television (Web TV);

• The phone bill payment;

• The Romanian situation:

• Virtual cards issued by BancPost (Taifun) and Banca Românească (Visa Virtual). Partially

accepted in foreign shops;

• Opening accounts to foreign banks to accept foreign payments (e.g.: Librariilehumanitas.ro);

• Usage of e-money system abroad (e.g. Cartea.ro - Moneybookers);

• Micro payment system - SMS cu VAT (e.g: zf.ro).

Presently it imposed an elaboration of a special legislation in this area and not only.

The European executive intends to launch conduct codes for the online services suppliers, the

possessors of propriety rights and consumers to ensure a large offer of online content and the

adequate administration of the protected materials by copyright.

Not only in European Union, but also in USA, Canada and other developed countries the

business medium and the state institutions were preoccupied by the law problems that are using

the Internet for different applications. The legislative framework of the UE regarding the settlement

right of the intellectual propriety contain directives for the following domains:

• The legal protection of the software programs;

• The legal protection of the data bases;

• The right for leasing and borrowing of the artistic creations;

• The cable and satellite transmissions;

• The conditions that unfurl the right intellectual propriety’s protection.

The Romanian relevant legislation for the e-commerce contains:

• The Common Legislation (Commercial code; Civil Code; Legea 31/1990 + Cod CAEN; the

legislation regarding the consumer protection);

• The E-Commerce Law no. 365/2002;

• The Government Decision no.1308 from 11/20/2002 regarding the approval of the

methodological Norms for the Law enforcement 365/2002 regarding the e- commerce;

• The Law 51/2003 to approve the Government Ordinance no. 130/2000 regarding the juridical

regime of the distance contracts;

• The Law of electronic signature 429/2001;

• The Law for persons protection regarding the data usage with personal character and the free

circulation of these data 677/2001;

• The Rule no.4/2002 of BNR regarding the performed transactions through the electronic

payments tools and the relations between the participants of these transactions.

In the last decade, the Internet had an alert rhythm of development in every sector of activity of

economical and social life. It appears major changes in short periods of time being impossible to

be predicted what the future will bring.

THE ROMANIAN E-COMMERCE In Romania, 5-7 years ago, was born the e-commerce by launching a bid and announcement

site, by launching one of the first online shop with IT&C and maybe by launching the first magazines

that tried to have customers which paid for content on the Internet.

Starting with 2004 in Romania is recorded on www.trafic.ro portal over 70 sites, which realize

the e-commerce activity and are visited daily by al least 1000 persons.

According to the data published in 2005 January by Visa International, the overall amount of

selling for 2004 shows that in Romania the e-commerce unfurled through Visa Credit Cards has

overcome 5,7 million dollars; the Romanian and foreign citizens performing over 41.000 transactions

of buying through the Net. The most spectacular raise recorded in 2004 was in December (the total

amount of selling reached over 28% from the total sum spent online in 2004).

Since then the Romanian e-commerce has evolved becoming maybe the most dynamical

industry form Romania. It appeared hundreds of virtual shops in the last few years also not everyone

understood the way of developing on online business. Site.Audit.ro has proposed to support the

younger entrepreneurs in their efforts to enter with the right step at the online e-commerce market.

In Romania the online selling and services raise daily even though is situated below those of the

EU. The Romanian e-commerce potential of development is very big because of the quick

development of the Internet, this having a major impact for the economical and social aspects.

Presently we can talk about a real revolution, which take place in commerce and tele-communications.

The Romanian e commerce maturity is gradually developed and takes time. In the following

years the value of the online transactions from Romania will have a monthly raise rate of about 20%.

At the end of June in Romania there were 4,5 millions Internet connections, with 78,2% over the

similar level form 2006, the penetration rate being of 21% according to the National Authority for

Settlement in Communication and Technology (ANRCTI)

http://www.trafic.ro/

In the third trimester (period July-September 2007) the Romanian online shops, which

implemented the e-Payment solution, had sold products and services in amount of 7,6 million euros,

the number of transactions being almost 88.000.

Comparing the results for the first 6 months of the year, the third trimester had a slightly

decrease of the numbers, a natural phenomena taking into account that the summer months

represents, traditionally, the holiday period when the shopping rhythm is slowly.

September marks the resumption of the raising rhythm, the numbers indicating in the E-

Payment system a 23& raise over August, from 2,3 million euros to almost 2,8 million euros.

June, July and August, the least dynamical months of the years had a total sum of 7,5 million

euros and 90.500 transactions, processed through e Payment, which represents 76% and respective

85% from the total recorded in 2006. This shows us how much the market has raised and what

potential there is here for the suppliers of the online domain.

Reported to the whole year 2006, January- September 2007 period had recorded a raise of

137% of the transactions online using the credit card e Payment and 115%, from its value reaching the

sum of 21,5 million euros and 253 transactions.

The most important sectors that recorded the biggest online success are tele-communications,

with 30% from the entire amount of transactions, followed by the tourism (touristical packages) and

transportations, with 20%, e-tail with 18% and content access with 12%

The main factor, which contributed to the evolution of the market, is the raising level of the public

trust regarding the online payments, through convincing programs of information and education

dedicated for both the final customers and the online suppliers.

For the last semester of 2007 the raise were estimated between 20 and 30& monthly with an

average point in the first two weeks from December.

The most successful online virtual shops are the bookshops, computer sites and electronics.

The best sellers form the entertainment domain became in Romania the video games, which

surpasses, as selling numbers, the music and the film. The selling of PC games and consoles

recorded important rises every year, and those, which work in, the Romanian profile industry, are very

optimistically for the next few years. One of the easiest ways of selling video games is online shop,

because the dial-up is overcome in Romania.

The competition raise for the market gain had determined the reorientation of numerous shops

to other types of services and products, or even the changing the character of the site. The context of

the online e-commerce evolution has also some psychological blockage, the reduced number of

Internet users (6 million Internet users) form the entire population, the insufficient advertising in mass

media of this type of commerce.

Besides all that the e-commerce will continue to rise both for operators and as a total amount of

business.

This year, the Romanian e-commerce market is estimated to 275-300 million euros, with 200%

raise than 2007 (declarations of the online shops representatives eMag and PCfun ).

This year will raise the number of the online shops because there are many domains poorly

covered, especially those from the services domain.

CONCLUSIONSThe electronic trade not only reduces the distances but also eliminates them. There is not

reason for the electronic seller to be located in one stabile place. As a rule the customer does not

know and interest where is the location of the seller. In his turn the electronic seller, for example

amazon.com, which presently is the orders.

It can be shown that every industry or institution, which can deliver on the market, it could also

activate in every market without being physically present.

REFERENCES1. ALEXANDRU Puiu – “Managementul în Afacerile Economice Internaţionale”, Editura

Independenţa Economică, Brăila, 1997

2. ANRCTI - Autoritatea Naţională pentru Reglementare în Comunicatii şi Tehnologie

3. BARI Ioan – “Globalizare şi probleme globale”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2001

4. CRISTUREANU Cristiana – “Economia invizibilului, Tranzacţiile internaţionale cu servicii”

Editura All Beck, Bucureşti 2004

5. Revista BusinessWeck nr.69 din 27.11.2007

6. ziarul Financiar – august 2006

7. ziarul Adevărul din 14.12.2004

8. ziarul Cotidianul din 18.01.2005

9. www.legi-internet.ro

10. www.curierulnational.ro ediţia din 04.01.2008

11. www.forrester.com

12. www.international.visa.com

13. www.internetmagazin.ro

14. www.trafic.ro

15. www.no-cash.ro

16. www.hospitalityebusiness.com

17. www.marketwatch.ro

18. www.hit.ro

19. www.eafacere.ro

20. www.business-online.ro

21. www.siteaudit.ro

22. www.afaceri.net

http://www.afaceri.net/

http://www.siteaudit.ro/

http://www.business-online.ro/

http://www.eafacere.ro/

http://www.hit.ro/

http://www.marketwatch.ro/

http://www.hospitalityebusiness.com/

http://www.no-cash.ro/

http://www.trafic.ro/

http://www.internetmagazin.ro/

http://www.international.visa.com/

http://www.forrester.com/

http://www.curierulnational.ro/

http://www.legi-internet.ro/

The dematerialization of the activities and the new type of economic increase and development

Dematerializarea activităţilor şi noul tip de creştere şi dezvoltare economică

Lect.univ.dr. Răbonţu CeciliaConf.univ.dr. Boncea Amelia

Universitatea Constantin Brâncuşi Tg-JiuFacultatea de Ştiinţe Economice


Rezumat: At an international level, this phenomenon of dematerialization of the economical activities was the subject of several debates concretized in seldom contradictory perceptions and attitudes regarding the importance and the infusion of each sector in part.

Nowadays, we talk, more and more, about this economy of services, specific to developed countries, that doesn’t become a form of antagonist economy to the industrial one, but rather a superior form of development.

Se pune în prezent tot mai des întrebarea dacă serviciile au devenit cauza sau sunt doar un simptom al dematerializării activităţilor. Atât adepţii cât şi adversarii fenomenului de terţiarizare folosesc această problemă controversată ca pe un fel de “minge la fileu”. Mulţii dintre specialiştii în domeniu apreciază că dezvoltarea serviciilor este sinonimă cu dematerializarea, realitate greu de contesta în actuala perioadă de dezvoltare economică.

Acest aspect a fost formulat în două variante1 şi anume:1.pe măsură ce activităţile industriale se restrâng, ca urmare a saturării pieţei cu

produse industriale, se dezvoltă prin compensare activităţile de servicii;2.sectorul de servicii s-a dezvoltat prin deturnarea resurselor alocate industriei, pe

care le-a preluat, în detrimentul acesteia.În decursul mai multor ani, specialiştii care au analizat acest fenomen complex al

dematerializării activităţilor au adus în prim plan trei versiuni care încearcă să clarifice relaţiile stabilite între acest fenomen şi dezvoltarea serviciilor. Ne referim aici la:

•scăderea ritmului de creştere a producţiei industriale se datorează modificărilor apărute în repartizarea populaţiei active pe categorii de activităţi, în sensul că s-a acordat o importanţă sporită aparatului birocratic2 care furnizează servicii publice, fapt ce a determinat amplificarea ponderii serviciilor necomecializabile în sectorul serviciilor.3

•apariţia unei relaţii între scăderea competitivităţii şi dezvoltarea serviciilor care a căpătat două sensuri în funcţie de economia pe care o caracterizează4.

1 C. Cristureanu, Economia Imaterialului, Editura Economica, Bucuresti., p. 312 A. Bercoff – Lettre ouverte a ceaux qui ne sont rien et veulent etre tout, Albin Michel, Paris, 1992, p.583 Tendinţa care se manifestă în lume în ultimele decenii referitor la acest aspect este cea de diminuare majoră a personalului angajat în aparatul administrativ din ţările dezvoltate din punct de vedere economic, fapt ce duce şi la scăderea ponderii sectorului public în PIB, ceea ce nu înseamnă că şi serviciile sunt mai puţin importante în economie4 în cadrul economiei Marii Britanii s-a observat o scădere a ponderii produselor industriale în balanţa de plăţi, fapt ce nu este imputat de către specialişti de la Cambridge (sunt cei care revendică noţiune de dezindustrializare), serviciilor, ci le consideră pe acestea incapabile de a prelua dezvoltarea economică sau funcţia de suport al competitivităţii;economiştii nord - americani argumentează dualitatea dintre dezvoltarea serviciilor şi pierderea competitivităţii ca răspuns la sporirea

•în ţările în care activităţile industriale au fost substituite de servicii, restructurarea economică nu a generat stagnare, aşa cum reiese din analiza dinamicii celor două sectoare care aprecia că serviciile sunt departe de a căpăta statutul de motor la creşterii economice, ci corespunde unui nou model de creştere economică bazat e societatea informaţională

Pe plan internaţional acest fenomenul al dematerializării activităţilor economice a făcut subiectul mai multor dezbateri concretizate în percepţii şi atitudini uneori contradictorii cu privire la importanţa şi aportul fiecărui sector în parte.

În ultimele decenii, s-au conturat două tendinţe cu influenţe puternice asupra economiei şi anume:

1.un fenomen extrem de des întâlnit în ţările dezvoltate din punct de vedere economic, care se referă la deplasarea masivă a forţei de muncă dinspre sectorul secundar spre cel terţiar;

2.puternica accentuare a procesului de globalizare a pieţelor, aspect ce este urmare a mai multor factori dintre care amintim: Noile tehnologii din domeniul telecomunicaţiilor şi informaticii, mondializarea pieţelor financiare şi strategiile marilor corporaţii transnaţionale.

Ca o concretizare a dualităţii dintre industrie şi servicii, apare şi ideea “economiilor în curs de dezindustrializare”, care în opinia adepţilor săi vor conduce la înlocuirea producţiei industriale cu servicii, fapt ce ar fi urmat de: diminuarea creşterii economice, a inovaţiei tehnologice, a veniturilor şi deteriorarea performanţei comerciale.

Pe lângă această teorie apare la cealaltă extremă ideea economiilor postindustriale conform căreia serviciile sunt considerate “produse superioare”, iar economiile ce se pot baza pe servicii sunt unele foarte dezvoltate.

Raportându-se la aceste două aspecte prezentate anterior au fost remarcate în literatura de specialitate noi puncte de vedere conturate în concepte precum: “economie a serviciilor”5 sau “noua economie industrială”6, apărute ca urmare a interdependenţelor existente între sectoarele industriale şi cele de servicii. Asupra acestor interdependenţe, se regăseşte acţiunea puternică a unor factori dintre care amintim: schimbările petrecute în cadrul pieţei dar şi a cererii, noile aspecte referitoare la concurenţa internă şi internaţională, dinamica politicilor comerciale dar mai presus de toate acestea se înscriu noile tehnologii din domeniul informaticii şi a telecomunicaţiilor.

Nu se poate vorbi de dematerializarea activităţilor fără a prezenta raportul existent între bunuri şi servicii. Este bine ştiut că serviciile în sens larg, includ şi bunurile materiale şi producţia de bunuri materiale în sens volumetric, dar auxiliară din punct de vedere conceptual. Atunci când se achită preţul de vânzare al bunului material, trebuie conştientizat faptul că o cotă parte a acestui preţ este reprezentată de totalitatea serviciilor ce participă la realizarea şi valorificarea bunului în forma existentă la momentul respectiv.

Existenţa unei relaţii de complementaritate între bunuri şi servicii este certă, şi rămâne adevărată şi în condiţiile noilor tendinţe de detaşare a sectorului terţiar faţă de domeniul industrial. Aşa cum un serviciu turistic de cazare are nevoie pentru a fi prestat de un bun material reprezentat de hotel, aşa şi un bun material are nevoie de un suport tehnologic şi de servicii de întreţinere. Dependenţa multor bunuri de servicii rezidă şi numai în simpla informare şi pregătite a pieţei potenţiale fapt realizat de banalele şi totodată extrem de importante servicii de comunicaţii.

accentuată a costurilor produselor industriale care au în componenţă un număr exagerat de mare şi inutil de servicii dar şi de înlocuirea exporturilor de bunuri materiale cu exporturile de servicii comercializabile, urmărind acest demers se face propunerea de a se întoarce toată atenţia asupra dezvoltării de tip industrial pentru care ar fi necesar concentrarea întregului efort financiar5 A.S. Bailey, D, Mailat – Le secteur tertiare en question, ED. Regionales Europeennes S.A,. Economica, Paris, 1988, p. 21.6 J. Miles – Services in the New Industrial Economy, Berlin,1989

De această legătura indestructibilă în anumite cazuri depind şi tranzacţiile internaţionale dar de multe ori cunoaşterea faptului că serviciile şi bunurile interacţionează este suficient, managerii cu experienţă fiind puşi în situaţia de a jongla cu o unealtă strategică de stimulare a cererii şi a creşterii profitului.

Între a fi un serviciu bun şi un bun pur apar o serie de situaţii în care elementele serviciului şi produsului se întrepătrund în diferite proporţii.

Se poate afirma că între sectorul serviciilor şi sectorul industriei apar o serie de elemente comune date fiind noile forme de manifestare a acestora, complet diferite de cele tradiţionale. Astfel, ponderea din ce în ce mai mare de servicii în valoarea unui bun material devine pentru managementul oricărei unităţi o posibilitate strategică de sporire a competitivităţii unităţii respective.

În conformitate cu cele spuse anterior, trebuie precizat că serviciile nu sunt în opoziţie cu industria ci devin tot mai integrate punându-se accent pe eliminarea antagonismului industrie-servicii şi înlocuirea acestuia cu noua abordare de combinare şi îmbinare a acestor activităţi.

În prezent se vorbeşte din ce în ce mai mult de această economie de servicii specifică ţărilor dezvoltate, care nu devine o formă de economie antagonistă celei industriale, ci mai degrabă o formă superioară de dezvoltare care face trecerea de la “hardware la software, dinspre bunurile materiale spre performanţă dinspre produse către sisteme ce furnizează soluţii şi pachete de bunuri şi servicii, dinspre succes economic evaluat prin nivelul producţiei, spre succes economic măsurat în grade de satisfacţie ale clientului”7.

Noile forme de organizare, noile stiluri de conducere şi noile mentalităţi apărute se datorează noii economii a serviciilor, conturată în urma dematerializării activităţilor, ce pune pe prim plan fluxurile orizontale în defavoarea funcţiilor verticale, ce favorizează auto-organizarea vis-à-vis de ordinul-comandă, optând mai curând pentru matrice fluctuante şi mai puţin pentru structuri formale. Cercetările au demonstrat că economiile cu planificare centralizată prin neadaptarea la această nouă formă de economie nu au reuşit să reziste8.

Printr-o implicare din ce în ce mai mare a serviciilor în absolut toate activităţile existente într-o economie se poate percepe un avânt considerabil în ceea ce priveşte progresul general, fapt demonstrat de economiile ţărilor dezvoltate din punct de vedere economic9. Un exemplu concludent în acest sens este faptul că în SUA, numărul persoanelor ocupate în învăţământ este mai mare decât cel din agricultură. Între funcţiile cele mai importante ale serviciilor în producţia de bogăţie materiale şi spirituală se înscriu serviciile de educaţie şi cercetare 10.

Implicarea serviciilor de cercetare şi învăţământ în pregătirea producţiei este o mică parte din contribuţia serviciilor la creşterea economică, deoarece la acestea se adaugă serviciile necesare pentru aprovizionarea cu materii prime şi materiale, cele ce ajută la derularea producţiei propriu-zise, serviciile de întreţinere şi stocaj, serviciile de distribuţie,

7 Agnes Ghibuţiu – Serviciile, o componentă esenţială a politicilor industriale contemporane – Studiu IEM, 1995.8 Michael Kostecki – Foreign Direct Investements and Services Economies of Eastern Europe, OCDE, Centre for Cooperation with the Economies in Transition, CET/DAFFE (94), 7 Oct. 1994, p. 2.9 În aceste ţări, în care se pune accent pe performanţele sistemelor, fapt ce se repercutează asupra calităţii proceselor şi produselor, se remarcă importanţa deosebită acordată serviciilor de învăţământ şi cercetare, domenii în care funcţionează milioane de persoane şi cărora sun alocate bugete destul de însemnate provenite din domeniul public dar şi din cel privat.10 Orio Giarini, Jean Roulet – L’Europe face a la nouvelle economie de service, L’Institut Universitaire D’Eddes Eurupeennes, Geneve, 1988, cap.4

serviciile legate de utilizarea produselor, întreţinere, refacere sau potenţare a valorii de întrebuinţare precum şi serviciile de reciclare şi gestionare a deşeurilor, etc.

Din moment ce fiecărui stadiu al producţiei îi revine în medie 20% din costurile de producţie, restul de 80% este revendicat de funcţiile serviciilor, fapt ce demonstrează încă odată rolul extrem de mare pe care îl au acestea în creşterea economică.

În perioada actuală, serviciile se bucură de o atenţie deosebită fiind prezentate ca o forţă economică a societăţii, un factor de antrenare a creşterii economice, un factor de producţie în “voga” şi extrem de important.

Cu toate acestea trebuie menţionat că nu toate serviciile contribuie în aceeaşi măsura la dezvoltarea sectorului terţiar şi implicit la creşterea economică, ci ele sunt extrem de eterogene şi caracterizate de anumite trăsături care fac posibilă împărţirea lor în două mari categorii şi anume:

-servicii intensive în muncă în realizarea cărora predomină munca manuală medie şi puţin calificată;

-servicii intensive în inteligenţă pentru a căror realizare este necesară forţă de muncă înalt calificată şi în număr redus.

Dat fiind faptul că în ultimele două - trei decenii, serviciilor au căpătat un rol şi un loc bine determinat, fiind mult mai elaborate şi diferit prestate faţă de perioadele anterioare, cele mai moderne şi dinamice servicii fiind hotărâtoare pentru întreaga activitate economică indiferent de domeniul avut în vedere. Ne referim aici la serviciile financiar-bancare, de întreţinere, cercetare-dezvoltare, consultanţă, publicitate, asigurări, de consultanţă dar şi servicii aşa zise primare, care sunt într-o pondere din ce în ce mai mare în toate categoriile de ţări.

Ponderea serviciilor în produsul intern brut dar şi ponderea populaţiei ocupate în sectorul terţiar sunt doar doi indicatori extrem de expresivi pentru demonstrarea importanţei acestui sector în toate economiile ţărilor care se confruntă cu noua tendinţă denumită “economia de servicii” adică acea “situaţie în care resursele sunt utilizate în funcţie de servicii, în cadrul cărora cele vizând depozitarea, transmiterea şi prelucrarea informaţiilor reprezintă o parte crescândă a întregului”11.

Astfel de indicatori ne pot deschide drumul spre înţelegerea proporţiei pe care şi-o revendică serviciile în cadrul dezvoltării economice, fapt ce reflectă măsura în care creşterea economică se poate baza pe factorii intensivi legaţi de nivelul pregătirii profesionale, de noile cuceriri ale tehnicii şi ştiinţei. Totodată, se poate remarca, gradul de eficientizare a activităţilor cuprinse în sectorul terţiar, fapt relevat de nivelul scăzut al cheltuielilor materiale dar şi de rezultatele obţinute prin folosirea unei cantităţi însemnate de muncă vie, inteligenţă şi creativitate.

Dacă serviciile deţin peste 2/3 din PIB, amploarea fără precedent a serviciilor în economiile ţărilor dezvoltate a pus în inferioritate forte multe domenii ale industriei. Pe lângă funcţia economică a serviciilor, dată în principiu de ponderea lor în PIB, şi deci în creşterea progresului economic, nu trebuie omise nici funcţiile socială şi cea de protecţie a mediului, funcţii ce amplifică rolul major al acestor activităţii în economie. Deci, ceea ce domină viaţa economică în perioada actuală este acel fenomen calitativ-structural ce se transpune în creşterea accentuată a sectorului terţiar şi în mod aparte a serviciilor moderne. Serviciile au cunoscut o amploare fără precedent, iar multe ramuri ale industriei se confruntă cu o concurenţă din ce în ce mai acerbă.

În ţările mai slab dezvoltate, ponderile prezentate mai sus sunt mai reduse, însă se înregistrează o creştere ce se bazează pe dezvoltarea serviciilor primare, acele servicii ce presupun un consum de muncă vie mare.

11 definiţie preluată din Orio Giarinii, W. Stahel -.Limitele certitudinii, ED. EdimpresCamro, Bucureşti, 1996

Schimbările petrecute în economie se datorează în cea mai mare măsură rolului jucat de către informatică, microelectronică şi telecomunicaţii, domenii care au adus modificări în însuşi modul de organizare şi funcţionare a economiei atât la nivel micro dar şi mezo şi, de ce nu, macroeconomic.

În zilele noastre complexitate produselor şi activităţilor existente în viaţa economică aduce în prim plan aportul tehnologic şi ştiinţific, informaţia fiind considerată în cele mai multe cazuri hotărâtoare din punct de vedere calitativ dar şi cantitativ. Astfel, s-a acceptat tot mai des ideea că informaţia reprezintă “principala materie primă” cu care lucrează economia modernă.

Tendinţa spre care se tinde în marea majoritate a ţărilor este spre ceea ce poartă denumirea de economie a serviciilor, a informaţiei şi comunicaţiilor. Aşa cum în cazul revoluţiei industriale, munca fizică a fost preluată de către maşini, în cazul revoluţiei de tip informaţional din activitatea omului vor fi eliminate efortul şi caracteristicile rutinale şi fizico-executorii. Revoluţia informaţională prezintă unele avantaje12 sintetizate prin: asigurarea fundamentării şi simultaneităţii unor mişcări şi decizii economice, funcţionare corespunzătoare a mecanismului economic, contracararea riscului şi a incertitudinii, şi altele.

Dată fiind intervenţia în forţă a serviciilor în toate domeniile de activitate, nu se poate vorbi doar de o simplă modificare cantitativă în structurile de consum, ci mai presus de acest aspect se observă modificarea însăşi a naturii celei mai mari părţi a activităţii şi un salt calitativ general al vieţii economice şi sociale. Dematerializarea activităţilor este un fenomen inevitabil, iar contribuţia serviciilor la creşterea economică şi la dezvoltarea economică sunt aspecte certe, demonstrate de altfel de ponderile tot mai mari pe care le deţin serviciile în indicatorii macroeconomici.

12 Al.Jivan – Economia sectorului terţiar, Ed. Sedona, Timişoara, 1997, p.10

The Neuromarketing – an adjuvant of the traditional marketing techniques

Assistent Cristina BurgheleaHyperion University – Bucharest

Abstract: The human emotion characterized from a commercial point of view is perceived as

a limitative message whose focus is the product. The tri-dimension of the emotion meets the message

which determines the spread of the information and need to consume and acquire. So, the emotional

essence of the one who decides the consuming determines a pressure which is reflected in the

promoting of the product.

The need to use a product determines the interfingering between the two sciences neurology

and marketing and thus resulting the neuromarketing.

The neuromarketing appeared from the need to sustain a decision by all possible means when

its pressure is a way over the ability of a decision maker to confront failure.

The advertising messages will no longer regard the reason or emotional side of the consumer

which leaves room to “escape”, but will regard directly the process is of the brain, onto which most of

the times, the human being has no control over, but can simulate a credibility of a message received

and can interpret in the same time those erosions which “bother”.

Keywords: product; consumer; advertising; promotion; neuromarketing.

The traditional marketing starts from an innovating idea but in the same time with the

traditionalist predominance: that every product can be launched on the market even the need to

acquire that product is not the marginally determined. They refer to the marginal need through the fact

that the consumer must be determined by a superior or inferior limit of the acquiring thinking of not

only an innovative product but also a useful one. The need to use the products is not determined by a

soul individual but by a collectivity of individuals who can influence the desire to acquire of each other

but also the assimilation of the idea “to have”.

Traditional marketing started from the paradigm death through adequate promoting activities

any products can be launched on the market regardless if the consumers need it or not, regardless if

the products is viable or not. The result is that even at present about 95% of the new launch products

have a life expectancy of a maximum of six months even if they had an advertising campaign to

impose them as an image and as an idea of the existence of what will eventually be thought as an

“absolute product”. That is why the paradigm has been changed and modern marketing considers that

only the identification and satisfying the needs and desires of clients is the way towards success; sex

acts which actually shows a superior limit that the necessity vector can reach but also an inferior one

up until which the shadow of failure leads to unsatisfying the desires of the client.

Only that this new paradigm is difficult to transpose into practice because up until now the

information linked with the desires and needs, the evaluation criteria and the decision-making strategy

1

have been collected through techniques subjected to great errors.1 Approximately 95% of the process

is leading to the satisfying of consumers are developed at an unconscious level, while the traditional

investigation methods (focus groups, interviews etc.) are concentrated on the conscious, reasonable

elements of perceiving and elaborating the reaction to them. This way information alteration is

introduced, of which psychology and sociology are aware, but not those who pay the actual studies.

The conscience perception of the products is determined by the necessity but also by the

need of novelty, which acts like an inhibitor but is in fact the information which can be altered, and the

vows becoming only a tangent with the aware element generating unhappiness at an informational

reception level.

For example, in focus groups the opinion of a group appears, and the opinions are polarized

around two positions (for example for and against a product), most of the people tending to accept

without a critical analysis the opinion expressed by the person with the most resonance.

Creating the interface of a product to manipulate a mass of people is very easy to accomplish

because the starting point is “the unconscious” which can be maneuvered so as its own opinion to

complete and even identify itself with the opinion of the others.

Another phenomenon is the predisposition to risk, the opinion of the group becoming more

radical than that of the people taken separately, because a sum of opinions forms a whole and

represents a force while the individual opinion doesn’t have the orientation nor the characteristic a

mass opinion has.

In addition there is a tendency to identify with a social image which makes the participants

respond according to what they think the interviewer would like to hear. That is why a change of the

communicational roads between the products and the client is imposed, and even creating new ideas

which generate solutions.

The quantum of solutions leads to the appearance of “salvaging ideas”, which can be

enounced like so: in order to make the products be bought it is necessary to create them according to

the unconscious needs and desires of consumers, and during the whole promoting, buying and using

processes nice emotional experiences to be created for the customers. The experiences had at an

emotional level are those obtained by each consumer through identifying, observing but in the same

time through a great influencing of the subconscious we does specifically determines need to acquire

the unique quality in acquiring products. The emotional phenomenon is more and more emphasized,

but also it is more and more manipulated by an overwhelming majority of those promoting based first

of all on the characteristics of the superior a limit of human emotion, emotion created on certain stimuli

which can lead to the appearance of chain reactions.

This means transferring the emphasize from traditional to modern elements, from reasonable

to emotional ones, from conscious to unconscious ones – this being possible only by applying the

neuromarketing.

The neuroscience exists for many years. Often it has been misunderstood and sometimes

even mistaken with some practices. Its principles are tested in business through its abilities to

1 Chief Executive September 2006,No. 9 – Daniel Bichis “Cheia spre mintea consumatorului” page 39

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influence the decision of consumers, decision which can be influenced anyway more or less by

external or internal factors present at the level of each human activity.

The appearance of this technique started many controversies. The skeptics think that this is a

way to manipulate consumers, while others think that neurosciences are fascinating.

Invented at Harvard in the mid ‘90s by Professor Gerry Zaltman the neuromarketing is a

combination between two sciences, neurology and marketing, through which the instruments used by

the first one initially only for medical interest, are now being used in advertising purposes. The

neuromarketing appeals to the technology of transmitting images through magnetic resonance – MRI,

technology used to detect brain tumors, but which allows reading the way the brain receives,

processes and interprets various images presented to it.

The term neuromarketing designates using the identification techniques of the brain

mechanisms to understand the consumers’ behavior, in order to optimize the marketing strategies.

Answers at the eyes’ (in ECT) or the brain’s level (especially through EEG and fMRI) are being

monitored to determine the way the consumer perceives, evaluates and reacts to the stimulant

represented by an advertising message, a product or a service.

This way one can find out how the human brain responds to a very advertising message, and

marketing personnel can their facts their options to popularize a brand. The impact of the message on

the brain represents in fact the key to open a Pandora’s Box. The accomplishment of this mechanism

can lead to increasing sales and most of all to creating a new perspective and orientation at a sales

developing level. This can be done with the help of some consumers’ representatives who will be

presented some images while they are introduced in a machine and subjected to some radio magnetic

fluxes.

The fragmentation of mass communication can become a force which added can create an

overwhelming impact and can determine just the same fragmentation of the way consumers react.

Implicitly, great corporations look for means as precise as possible to target the advertising message.

Advertising is not lights in the old days – you take a products and state is the best on the

market and then determine the individuals by different means to acquire it. Now you must know your

target audience, carefully studying his behavior, but most of all interact with the necessities of the

client, determining him to “choose” you. But the way can now best the consumer, that people whom a

product or service addresses to, is that of going straight to the source, more accurate... to the brain.

That’s the way one can find out in a relatively short time the behavior of the buyers, their desire to

acquire unique products, and the advertising campaign can be changed on the way to have a more

certain and overwhelming impact on those who determine the survival on the market.

The desire for affirmation but also the need significantly determined to conquer a certain target

audience, led to the appearance of strategies and the advertising companies’ level which have started

to invest massively in brain studies, studies which have led without intention to the innovating concept

of neuromarketing.

The neuromarketing tries to find new breaches on the market, tries to understand and

obviously to influence the consumer, tries to develop managerial strategies which can influence the

great mass of those who significantly determined can reduce the major impact of the losses at an

3

emotional level. Those who try to find interdependency between the consumer and his emotional

development are based now on many recently developed procedures: imaging with magnetic

resonance, from which result all kinds of images with brain reactions to different stimuli.

In the figure presented below are presented the main techniques used in neuromarketing

which follow either the activity in the profound structures of the brain (fMRI and PET), or in the surface

ones (EEG and MEG). These techniques can resemble open windows to the interior of the brain,

which allow registering to modification of its functioning during the interaction of the consumer with the

tested product. The obtained information allow choosing even more efficiently the need for a product,

the type of advertising message, the form it is transmitted in, the conceited to elements of the products

or packaging, the delimitation of the price categories used etc.

For now some methods are less accessible, taking into account costs but also of obligating

the subjects to find themselves in an environment very different from the usual one, environment

which can lead to the detaching of an emotional collapse and the failure of the used technique

(especially PET and fRMI).

That is why they will probably be used especially for the fundament of some studies, to detect

some stimuli, based on which the obtained results can be interpreted better, for example, by

associating the EEG with the ECT.

Following the direction of the book (ECT) - 1990

The direction of the look is registered and the areas it focuses on our indicated.

Functional magnetic resonance images (fMRI) - 1990

Identifying the activity of the brain simultaneously in several regions.

Tomography with anti electrons emission(PET) - 1970The intensity of the metabolism and the outflow of the blood

in the brain.Axial computerized tomography(CAT/CT) - 1970

This technique generates images of the body organs.Magneto-head x-ray (MEG) - 1960

During this procedure that is recorded the activity and the inhibition of neuron cells in the brain.

Electro- head x-ray (EEG) - 1920This procedure shows that during different activities modifications of the electrical potential of the

brain are registered and the time needed to process a stimulus can be measured.

The need to be sold and the need to be known makes each products try to interact with the

consumer. The product is the one who opens the window towards the inside of the human brain with

the help of the need but also the desire to acquire it. There, at a neuronal level one can observe a

modification of the functional activity during the interaction between the consumer and different types

of products. Choosing these techniques only enhances the efficiency of the sales and the actual

message becomes a collective hypnosis. The actual connectivity is the one who should have been

effectively determined and stimulated to acquire but also to choose more or less strategic pivot

products. Up until now the marketing solutions were limited to interact methods of reading our

4

thoughts and feelings. These noticed how and how much we bought according to the increase or

decrease of prices. An absolutely necessary pivot in marketing development in general is poll

approach. But they aren’t always exact; first of all, because the people don’t always say what they

think or do. That is why traditional researches are much more intuitive and lack perspective. Then the

fidelity cards were invented. But not even this method could attain a complete and relevant image,

Because not every consumer accepts to be in a database in exchange for some very low discounts.

Even from the first appearances on the market of the neuromarketing concept one could

observe that the consumer identified himself with the image of the products and he was more and

more tented to say that the product is exactly like him. The studies performed show that the engine of

the commerce is represented actually by the conclusions reached in the interactions between

neurology and marketing, meaning the association between the self image and the individual

knowledge of each of us.

“Even from the first attempts of Professor Gerry Zeltman from Harvard University performed in

the ‘90s, the neuromarketing attracted the attention of the great companies and found itself a lot of

applications. Following the model first met in genetic engineering and pharmaceutical research there is

a very close collaboration between the great investors and university laboratories involved in this kind

of research.”2 Here are some of the main developing fields:

The competitive advantage of using neuromarketing

The marketing world has always searched for an answer to that question: to what degree the

quality of the product, even recognized by the consumers, represents a source of competitive

advantage. The most authentic example was offered by the competition between Coca-Cola and

Pepsi Cola. In order to delimitate very well its target market but also to increase his market share,

Pepsi launched in the ‘70s the campaign called The Pepsi Challenge following which a series of tests

were performed in supermarkets and mini markets where the consumers were asked to decide which

of the two beverages was tastier. Without knowing what beverages it was about, but most of all

focusing on quality 57% of the participants chose Pepsi and only 43% chose Coca-Cola. These results

were intensely exploited from an advertising point of view and to prepare the sales force, but the effect

regarding the increase of the market share was insignificant.

Later on an experiment was performed through which the activity of different areas of the brain

was measured with the help of the fMRI when the subjects came into contact with the two products.

The obtained results were pretty relevant and brought one more time on the first plane the idea that

the existence of neuromarketing and the company’s motivation to develop their activity in this sense:

• When they didn’t know what beverages it was about, 75% of the subjects preferred Pepsi, the

beverage which activated stronger the area of the brain which corresponds to the sensation of

satisfaction, of sensorial pleasure;

2 Chief Executive September 2006,No. 9 – Daniel Bichis “Cheia spre mintea consumatorului” page 40

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• When they knew what beverages they tasted, the report was reversed and for 75% of the

people tested Coca-Cola determined the activity of the area of the brain which responds for

valuable judgments and reason and the one containing the emotional memory.

The experiment shows that the brand image produces the arousing of some emotions which can

become stronger than the direct effect of that product. It is a demonstration of the reality of the

statement that “the products are created in the factory and the brand is created in the mind of the

consumer and is the one who gives the power and the motivation to success”.

For 30 years the obstinacy with which the consumers continued to buy a products they now is less

tastier than that of the direct competitor was an enigma, explained through a mysterious “branding

effect” which couldn’t be decomposed in elements to be repeated what could be analyzed and may be

rethought as a future strategy.

The neuromarketing is a revolutionary concept which boomed in the United States and which

recently became known in Europe. A recent study for formed at Daimler Chrysler showed that the

“reward centers” in men’s brains were activated by sports cars in the same way the response to

alcohol or drugs.

If a study were performed in our country based on the messages in election campaigns one would

notice the fact that in most cases “the brain” of the people masses responds differently, and the image

about each candidate is perceived as a whole which is individualized in individual accomplishment.

The image is formed in the mind of the information consumer and is developed in the superior limit

of the desire to succeed by voting the best candidate and thus creating, at a certain time, more or less,

a mass hypnosis.

Maximizing the impact of advertising

Researchers have proposed a model of the human brain constructed out of three super posed

structures; each of them specialized on certain functions:

• The R complex (reptilian) or the primitive brain, controls the body and decides very rapidly

the strategy we use (we act, we retreat or we wait), to ensure the satisfying of fundamental

needs (physiological, sexual, security and territory defense etc.);

• The limbic system for the emotional brain, associated with emotions, feelings attention,

general attitude, usual memory (the recalling of events), the immunity and hormonal

balance, the relationships with the others; its decisions refer to the pleasure or non pleasure

we associate with that situation;

• The neo-cortex or the rational brain, which analyzes and solves the problems, uses the

language and logic, constructs rational memories (of the materials studied for an exam type)

and leads the creative thinking; its decisions refer to sticking to the rules and previous

experiences, convictions and personal values, self image.

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In short one can say that in the face of a product the rational brain evaluates, the emotional

one senses, and the primitive one decides what we have to do. We are aware only of the results of the

reasonable evaluation and partially on the effect on the emotional state. If nor the basic reactions or

emotions are involved the advertising message is simply ignored. That is why, in order to have an

effect, advertising is addressed first of all to the emotional and primitive brains which it has to

determine to open the channel of focus which transmits the information the words the rational brain

too.

The automobile company Daimler Chrysler financed an experiment which wanted to establish

the types of automobile men want. The result itself was not expected, preferences being for about 2/3

of sports automobiles, about 25% of limousines and the rest for compact class.

The important fact was that in this test it was shown that sports automobiles activate strongly

an area of the primitive brain initially considered as being involved in making decisions linked to vital

elements (appetizing food, attractive and available sexual partner). Activating that area usually leads

to blind gestures, the man acting instinctively to obtain that trophy. Also the neuronal rewards circuits

are activated which thus produce a profound emotional state, the rational brain is preconditioned to

supply justifications and solutions to obtain that product. There’s nothing new, off a mobile dealers will

say, as they know very well the affect the presence of a beautiful lady by the side of the car she offers

has. But this finding allowed redrawing the bodies of the limousines and of the compact class so was

Primary instinctsQuick reactionsDefense and retreat actionsOrienting towards winning

EmotionsMemory Learning through experienceFocusLeisure/Pain

AnalysisEvaluationLogicCreative thinking

The rational brain The limbic system The reptilian

brain

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to determine on their own a very motivated answer. And it lead to the re-conceiving of advertising

messages and of the presentations of the sales agents followed by an increase of sales up to 40%.

Another study demonstrated that the act of buying by a person can even be “predicted”

observing with the help of imaging through magnetic resonance the activation of neuronal circuits. The

great companies are so interested in these evolutions of science that they act many times in a

coalition. But in the same time, the collaborations with the laboratories of cognitive sciences are done

with maximum discretion, out of the fear of arousing by accident negative reactions of the public

opinion.

In our country a special impact which can be the basis for the presence of neuromarketing

was the advertising campaign Maggi developed in 2005. It had a special resonance by “optimizing” the

memorizing of an advertising campaign according to the repeating of the messages and their diffusion

in many environments of mass communication. The idea was so successful, and the transmitted

message had such a special resonance and the target public level that the mother company Nestle

Rumania decided to renew the Maggi campaign in 2006 with the slogan “The Maggi heart comes back

home twice as precious!”

Transmitting information repeatedly through these innovative “ideas” to persuade the

consumers to make the ad in the benefit of the firm with a low cost, represented by the value of the

awards given following the campaign represents an absolute success of the presence of

neuromarketing on the Romanian market. So, the message seen by the consumer where ever he was

determined the motivation to buy and the resonance of the success made the neuronal circuits

activates the stimulating centers of necessity.

The stimulated envy by the potential winnings determined the motivation at a neuron-psychical

level of the population, so 85%3 Of the Serbian population one it to receive the promotional Maggi

flyer, a percentage never reached by another developing campaign until present. The frenzy of this

campaign brought out the imagination of the individual to find as visible as possible places to promote

Maggi hearts. The general desire for a possible daily 2000 euros earning stimulated the subconscious

of the consumer thus generating a passing state of happiness which could only be satisfied through

that visible competing to acquire as many Maggi hearts as possible which covered without much effort

a significant part of the “urban windows”. The success of the campaign was overwhelming because

the stimuli of the mass hypnosis were detached and all that one called product individualization

became a initiating factor of the need “to have”.

But studies were performed over the Internet to and it was proven that the accuracy of the

anticipation of the buyer behavior is of 77%. The exact purpose in this case was setting the way a

certain site had to be constructed and what kind of contents it should’ve had. With the help of

biometrics sensors have been recorded all the reactions of those analyzing a certain site: the

conductivity of the skin, the pulse, the respiration, the mimic and gestures.

The lack of free time and the human need quickly led to conceiving the sites for virtual stores.

The consumer analyses following a documentation and decides what to acquire. The visual impact

tangent with the desire to acquire is the initiating stimuli of virtual madness.

3 http://adplayers.ro/articol/-11/Maggi-pompeaza-de-2-ori-mai-mult-557.html

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On the Internet technology has evolved very quickly, the need to know the behavior of the

customer led to the apparition of “pop-up ads” – advertising windows which appear when visiting a

certain site. It has gone so far that the advertisers wanted to know which area of the screen we look at

more often, as well as the area we access most often with clicks.

The financial force of these businesses attracted very many hackers which have developed

special viruses: adware and spyware. These viruses are in fact programs which correlated to the

information obtained through Pop-ups, which download automatically promotional materials posted in

the already learned areas through ”screen knowing”.

The chaotic receiving of spam messages leads to the initiation of the desire to acquire

especially by stimulating the desire to try out a product you receive a lot of emails about. The

advertisers are based on the mass effect, by sending as many spam’s as possible to which very few

will answer.

Seeing the message initiates at a neuronal level a simulation of the desire to acquire and thus

no a subtle manipulation of the consumer it is strides actually to consciously limit his memory.

In a very close future the accident factor on the Internet will be forgotten and the contents will

go to the users already “analyzed” by the consumers and then adapted for them.

For the specialists in neuromarketing the self image and the self knowing of each of us

represent the white gold of a perfect alchemy: the transformation of the self love in the low of four the

other self which is transposed in an advertising target. The consumer must tremble, vibrates and feel

an overwhelming desire to acquire a product; the comfort of having a relative stability and being

dominated by the continuum desire to acquire. The subconscious memorizing mechanisms are those

who initiate the actions leading to the evaluation of the state of satisfaction of the masses.

”The intimate knowledge of the consumer’s brain can only incite the enterprises and their

advertising deputies to escape from the spaces normally allocated for communications. The conditions

of the receptivity of a brand are judged more favorably as the “target” is not actually aware it is

regarded. It is what the rapid development of the advertisement explains, this hybrid between

advertising and amusement”.4

Motivation through advertisements

The traditional evaluation methods of the efficiency of advertisements (re-memorizing the

spot, recognition tests and measuring the attitude towards the product or brand) is based exclusively

on what the subjects report – so it is limited to the conscious memory. The purpose of the advertising

investment is to determine people to buy their own promoted products or services, not to understand

their advantages or to like the story of the spot. The essential difference between emotion and reason

is the fact that emotions make us act, while reason only makes us evaluate. And when we talk about

motivation, we almost exclusively refer to the emotional and the reptilian brains.

4 Le monde diplomatique, Marie Benilde “ Publicitatea se implica in neurostiinte” Noiembrie 2007, pag. 3

9

The advertising message with an intensively emotional content activates imagination, people

having the tendency to verify in what way the product can satisfy them. The result is that after such an

imaginative test the information is memorized as if the experience would have actually occurred and

activates decisional elements in the primitive brain. There are some clear differences between the

answer of the brain towards the reasonable and emotional spots. The latter activate strongly the areas

of the brain implicated in establishing social relationships and making decisions – exactly the type of

answer any company which invests in TV advertising wants. Using the neurosciences represents the

most important progress in the field of market research in the last 25 years.

For the moment a translation of the neurological data in the specific marketing language is being

done, so as for the information to be used by those who know the other elements of the marketing mix.

The neuromarketing offers a multitude of additional information, but it can’t offer any kind of

information linked to the behavior of consumers. The second limit is that of the price and technology.

For the moment, the PET and fMRI (the strongest) type techniques can only be applied in the

laboratory, and the rental price of the equipment is significant. But it can be estimated, like has

happened with a lot other technologies that the appearance of real demand for such equipment for

other purposes than medical ones will lead to a rapid decrease of the cost and dimensions of the

equipment.

At last, it mustn’t be ignored the reaction of consumers’ associations which fight for the limiting of

the freedom of advertising agents and market studying companies to obtain information about the way

the consumers elaborate their decisions. It is a reaction determined by fear of the possible latter

manipulation by identifying a n “acquisition button” to transform them into certain victims of the

advertising messages. One can observe that: even a reduced increase of the efficiency of advertising

leads to a boom of some diseases such as: obesity, anorexia or type 2 diabetes.

But such reactions fueled by the hunger for sensational of the media are not justified.

What neuromarketing can actually do is improve the way the companies create and promote

products so as to make them more interesting, attractive and valuable for the consumers. The

objective of neuromarketing is to change the behavior of companies which can easily pass over the

decision of the individual and not over the behavior of the consumers.

At least this is what the promoters of neuromarketing sustain, the market studying technique

which appeals to psychiatric instruments to guarantee the advertising message will permanently and

efficiently stay in the mind of the audience.

References:

1.Miller, E.K. Cohen, J.D. (2001) An integrative theory of prefrontal cortex function, Annual Review of

Neuroscience, Pp. 167-202.

2. Zaltman, G. (2003) How Customers Think: Essential insights into the mind of the market. Boston,

USA, ed. Harvard Business School Press.

3. http://www. chiefexecutive.net

4. http://www.sfin.ro

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5. http://www.capital.ro

6. http://www.monde-diplomatique.ro

7. http://adplayers.ro/articol/-11/Maggi-pompeaza-de-2-ori-mai-mult-557.html

8. http:// www.capital.ro

9. http://www.adacademy.ro

11

The importance of human resources in the new economy

Ana-Maria Grigore - Hyperion University

Abstract: In the knowledge-based economy – the new economy it seems, by experts opinion –

the firms meet the major challenge to find qualified personnel in labour markets defined by

complex and erratic evolutions and above all by the lack of many categories needed in the

process. The human resource gets more important, more complex and more expensive than

before. That reality enhances the importance of MRU and the necessity to modify its contents.

1. Adopting the knowledge-based economy

During the last quarter century the economy of the developed countries evolved from the

Industrial Era to the Information Era, from the capital-based economy to what has been called

knowledge-based economy. One of the indicators of this transition is represented by the volume

of the corporations’ investments within the information technology. In the American economy it

happened for the first time in 1992 that the volume of the expenses in relation to the information

technology overtook all other investments expenses in equipment (Manasco, 2000, p.1).

Knowledge represents the new source of wealth – a category which has to be carefully treated as

well as the proper capital.

Knowledge determine most frequently and often, decisively, obtaining the competitive

advantage by the companies, without which these ones can neither develop nor survive. Some

states such as USA are in an advanced stage of building of the new economy. Their previous

years economic performances are edifying to this purpose. They represented the main argument

which determined the European Union to draft the Lisabona Strategy by which it establishes what

and how it should be acted so that the countries within should be able to build rapidly this new

type of economy and to take over the advance that USA currently has. Essentially, the knowledge-based economy is characterized by transforming the knowledge into raw material,

capital, products – essential production factors of the economy and by economic processes within

which the production, the sale, the purchase, the learning, the storage, the development, the

partition and protection of knowledge become predominant and decisively condition the obtaining

of profit and ensuring the sustainability of economy on long term (Nicolescu and Nicolescu, 2005,

p.48)

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2. Considering knowledge as an asset of the company

During the last decades the knowledge replaced the capital as a difficult to find

production factor, thus becoming the dominant force in businesses. This dramatic change led to

the current crisis of knowledge and to the search of solutions. In the Industrial Era the physical

work based on manual skills was the source of economic growth and the ability to perform such

labor the key to employment in the assembly line. The knowledge was something that allowed the

work in the organization.

In the Information Era, on the other side, the intellectual work based on knowledge is the

source of the economic growth and the capacity to do it represents the key of employment.

Knowledge, by follow, does not represent some means to carry the work to the end – it’s the work

itself. The managers, the technicians, the experts in marketing and sales are those who provide

administrative support, they all acquire and spread knowledge which is the current coin of their

employment. They analyse, synthesize, create, perfect, in other words, they manage the

intangible represented by knowledge. If the iconography of the Industrial Era was a pair of hands,

the one of the Information Era is a pair of brains (Beazley et al. 2002).

The notorious specialist P. Drucker stated 15 years before that “the basic economic

resource is not the capital, neither the natural resources nor the work. It is and it will be

knowledge” (Drucker, 1993, p.8). “The most valuable asset of a 21st century institution will be the

set of knowledge of its employees and the productivity of their work” (Drucker, 1999, p.135). This

evolution from the focus on the educated physical work to the focus on the trained mental abilities

is mirrored in the change of the aims of the businesses within the last 100 years. The aim of the

Industrial Era was to automatize the human work. The aim of the Information Era is to develop

and exploit the human knowledge.

The reveal of the superior quality nature and of the specificity of the knowledge-based

economy does not signify in any way a unilateral approach of the economic system. Naturally, the

system of the knowledge-based economy is not reduced only to knowledge. All the elements that

the economic sciences named as economic activity inputs are maintained. Their weight within the

economic circuits modifies and partially, their nature and modality to display, subject to the

conditions in which the knowledge and the processes focused upon them usually have the

decisive role. There is no doubt that the economic processes no matter how much they change

they will always need also human resources, technical-material, financial, etc., but in superior

configurations and mechanisms, a result of the evolutions and accumulations.

During the two decades between `80 and 2000 occurred the transformation of the value

relation between the tangible and intangible assets. The ratio between them evolved from 1:1

(which means that the market value of a company practically means the value of its physical

assets) to a ratio of 5:1, meaning that the intangible values are considered to be 5 times higher

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than the tangible ones. We might have returned to a ratio of 4:1 after the fall of the dot-com

industry and the decline of the markets in the 2000s, but it will never fall to 1:1. The phenomenon

certifies the value of the intellectual capital – a possible gain of the organization not related to the

tangible assets (Beazley et al., 2002). The knowledge that the new economy is based upon is

important for the companies with a low technical level, non-profit organizations, as well as for the

companies focused on the top technique. To this purpose the former president of General Electric

is being quoted, legendary Jack Welsh, who stated: “a good idea does not summarize to a

technological idea. A good idea is to handle a process which requires a six days period and

reduce it to one single day. We obtain growths of the work productivity of 6-7% mostly with this

kind if ideas. Each person can have such contribution”.

For any asset, other than the intellectual one, the organization deploys high efforts to

fight against its loss. The natural question is asked: why knowledge does not enjoy the same

treatment? Ironically, it was settled a rigorous maintenance program in order to extend the life of

the used devices but not a program for the preservation of the volume of the knowledge of the

employees. However, the loss of these ones is in reality higher than in the case of fixed means

which can be easily replaced.

If the knowledge was systematically transferred from the one who leaves to the one

replacing him, bringing the latter to a maximum efficiency a couple of months earlier, the gain

would be enormous based on this process only.

Unfortunately many organizations do not have a realistic perspective upon the value of

the knowledge of the employees or of the costs for replacing it.

Although many managers strongly state: “people are our most important asset”, these are

rather treated like an expense. Acknowledging the knowledge “as a main engine of productivity”

means to admit that people are not a cost but rather a catalyst of growth and wealth.

Otherwise there would be no point that the companies should take care of the tangible

assets neglecting at the same time to their valuation by the equipped people.

3. Loss of knowledge in the new economy

Each generation of managers and leaders faced threats upon the profitability and

sometimes the uncertainty of the survival, which characterized the age when they lived. War,

inflation, economic crisis, the collapse of the stock, the employment crisis represented all serious

dangers for businesses in the last century. The first decade of this century does not represent an

exception regarding the aforementioned threats list, the problem is that a further one was added –

the loss of knowledge. The loss of knowledge due to the fact that the employees quit represents a

threat – for the prosperity and productivity of the company – equal to the big threats of the last

century.

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This movement towards the knowledge lead to the significant increase of this one for the

organization. Knowledge represents now the main economic production factor, an asset which

has to be carefully kept and wisely used. But knowledge lay first in people’s mind – people who

leave the organization and take the knowledge with them. When knowledge gets out the door

without leaving “children” the result can be devastating for the organization. The increase of

losses can create a crisis for the organization. In fact, the organizations face currently such a

crisis: retirements, transfers, abandons, resignations.

As long as the importance of knowledge increases the negative impact of the loss of

knowledge at organizational level exponentially increases. The effects are predictable and

expensive, including:

- reduced efficiency;

- decrease of productivity;

- increase of employees’ stress and frustration;

- lower incomes.

All together these negative effects harm the profitability, the innovation capacity, the

answer speed, reducing the chances of survival in front of the faster competitors and the more

conscientious ones of this phenomenon.

Very suggestive to this purpose is the analogy carried out by Beazley et al. (2002), of

businesses with long-distance race. The success does not belong to the sprinters who run alone.

The long-distance race of businesses is formed by many sprints of a huge number of racers. For

each employer – participating at the race as well as for the whole organization, each sprint takes

place within a relay race, the success of the organization depending on its result. The competitive

advantage in the Information Era belongs to the organization whose employees succeed in

transmitting the know-how to the next racer who at his turn he will pass it on to the next one and

so on and so forth in a succession that lasts as much as possible.

4. The continuum of knowledge

The knowledge being the basic resource is worth exploring its characteristics and how

they can be used by the organization.

Simplifying, knowledge is represented by the set of skills that the employees must

possess in order to carry out to an end their tasks in maximum efficiency and efficacy conditions.

Knowledge includes essential databases and information but it is broader than this.

Knowledge is the base of the competence and wisdom which are more valuable for the

organization than knowledge. The essential question for an organization which wants to conquer

the knowledge-based economy is: how can the information be transformed in knowledge and

further in competence and wisdom?

4

The continuum of the knowledge explains this process of conversion. Starting with the

information and ending with wisdom the continuum has the following components (Beazley et al.

2002):

Data – Information- Knowledge- Competency – Wisdom

We cover these stages in an assembly of processes which bring a higher understanding,

an increased ability to approach complexity, a holistic perspective.

Knowledge represents the information organized in a frame, concept, principles, theory,

hypotheses or other action permits which increase the understanding of a situation and the

probability to resolve a task. Knowledge allows action. According to professor O. Nicolescu

(2005, p.21), by knowledge we represent sets of information and skills by whose use it is

generated an added value. In conclusion, the essential distinction between the information – that

which bring new elements – and knowledge consist in their capacity to create, by use, economic

substance and added value, which interests mostly in economy. It can be plenty of information,

usually far less knowledge.

Competency means knowledge integrated through own experience (contextual familiarity

in the particular process that the organization exercises, eventually), which provides the capacity

to resolve problems, to take decisions and to manage situations and tasks at a level that ensures

success. In other words, competency means categories of knowledge assembled in an

operational system, able to give solutions.

Wisdom – the most diffuse notion, usually easier to observe post-factum – competence

refined by experience, practice, maturity brought in a judgment above the average, intuition, a

holistic perspective, a level which allows correct decisions in complicated situations and instable

environments, requiring a balance between the long term aims and the current needs.

5. Human resources management based on knowledge

Within this framework which has to be the mission and objectives of human resources

management (HRM)? The measurement of the performances of the employees can not be done

based on the algorithm of some “norms” imposed and recognized in the culture of a branch of

production or another, as in the Industrial Era. Paradoxically, in an era of microprocessors, of top

technologies, of equipments “independent” of man`s skills and attention, the human resource

regains the hegemony among the economic variables of the organization. The responsible

leadership and management of this resource represent the big challenge of the modern

management.

In his classical work “Organization in action”, James Thompson (1967) describes how the

human variable affects the actions of the organisation. Later, Hambrick andi Mason (1984) stated

that the organisations are reflections of their top managers. Based on this paper, Finkelstein and

5

Hambrick (1996) underlined the importance of the human element in the strategic choice and

performance of the company. The human resource increased its importance because the

knowledge part became the critical ingredient in order to acquire the competitive advantage in the

new economic landscape. In a recent allocution addressed to the Massachusetts Institute of

Technology graduates, Carly Fiona, general manager at Hewlett – Packard, stressed this thing,

saying that the magic ingredient, the most important and tangible of the current landscape is the

man. By follow, the answer to the key question of the strategic management: why does the

companies performance vary, is that they differ from the point of view of the human capital (Hitt et

al., 2001).

In the 21st century knowledge-based economy the employers have to cultivate their

creativity of their people in order to be competitive. In “Human resource management in the

knowledge economy”, Mark Lengnick-Hall and Cynthia Lengnick-Hall (2003) state that since the

manner in which businesses are done is modified, in the same measure the role of the human

resources managers should be changed. Although many human resources classical activities are

needed, they become more remote from the direct process of generating the value, state the

two specialists aforementioned. The management of the human resources has to be torn apart

from its bureaucratic past and to focus upon the “plugged-in” of the best brains.

In the knowledge-based economy the focus of HRM will not be restricted in its

conventional form of recruitment, training, motivation and so on and so forth. The task of HRM

within the knowledge-based economy also includes other activities which intersect with other

traditional functions (finances, marketing, strategy) and other new ones (such as knowledge

management). For this reason, HRM is not focused any longer on the leadership of the people in

the conventional purpose. HRM is now responsible of leading the capacities created by people

and the relationships that these people develop.

The adoption of the knowledge-based economy, of the construction and functioning of

the knowledge-based companies can not be carried out without knowledge-based management.

It has to be underlined the fact that the human factor has a decisive role in outlining the

knowledge-based management as well as in outlining the company and the knowledge-based

economy. Thus, the human resources become much more important and complex than in the

previous systems. Consequently, the importance of the human resources management is

increased at the same time with the substantial modification of its contents (Nicolescu and

Nicolescu, 2005, p.271).

The knowledge-based economy owes its conceptualization to philosopher Michael

Polanyi (Price, 2004, p.65). He considers the knowledge to have two faces: explicit and implicit.

The explicit knowledge ist o be found in books, documentation, files and other accessible

sources. The implicit or tacit knowledge is the one to be found in the employees’ mind much more

difficult to be accessed, for evident reasons. Usually, an organization does not know which this

6

„knowledge” is. Even worse, the managers’ trend to fire an employer when the least problem

occurs means in fact to irresponsibly renouncing knowledge.

Grant (1997, quoted by Price 2004) argues that HRM can improve the competition of

an organisation through the impact upon „the knowledge basis” of a business: its employees’

skills and expertise. HRM can increase competition from a knowledge management perspective.

A possible strategy consists in spreading the „tacit” knowledge within the organisation and

blocking its spreading outside it.

To this purpose, the organization should:

1. Accept that the set of knowledge is a vital source of added value for its products

and services and a key for gaining the competitive advantage.

2. Clearly distinguish between the tacit and explicit knowledge.

3. Accept that the „tacit” set remains within the individuals and it is learnt in an

informal and not structured manner.

4. In a way or another, identify and record this tacit knowledge and incorporate it in

the „structural capital” of the business in order to be able to be also transmitted to

others.

The knowledge management supporters argue that the long term competitive

advantage can be reached by identifying and recording the tacit knowledge. But the simple fact to

agree with this principle based on the common sense ground does not tell us also how to do it.

And many studies end here. A remarkable exception is Tiwana (1999, quoted by Price 2004),

who points out:

„In the technology-based industry the companies which thrived are not the ones who

invented new technologies but those which applied them. Microsoft is probable a good example

of a company which first based itself on a good marketing then on the sale of shares and latest

on innovation–mainly coming from exterior”.

Professor O. Nicolescu considers that a new productivity paradigm was outlined,

pursuant to which within the new economy productivity means „what, how much and how well it is

produced by using the available resources with a view to increasing the clients’ satisfactions”.

Knowledge, intellectual capital and time became the most relevant resources. Being the single

resource which possesses the capacity to think and implement new ideas, people occupy the

central position in the formulation of relevant productivity strategies.

The new type of human resources management outlined within the knowledge-based

companies displays more characteristics by which it differentiates itself from the classical human

resources management:

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The focus on the human resources approach from the perspective of the

amplification and effectiveness of treating knowledge;

The inclusion in its ranging sphere not of employers only but also of other main

stakeholders of the organization;

The intense differentiation or specialists’ approaches, actions and behaviours in HRM

field in order to be able effectively to consider the heterogeneity of the human

resources involved in organization, of their characteristics, motivations and

expectations;

The performance in a participative manner, to the purpose of intense and direct

involvement of knowledge-based specialists in carrying out the human resource

activities which concern them, starting with the projection of their careers;

The display of an intense creativity in all human resources management processes in

order to be able to conceive adequate solutions for the different number of original

elements involved in the efficient and effective use of human resources;

Conceiving and performing the human resource activity in a flexible way,

permanently modifying their functions and content, corresponding to the endogenous

and the exogenous evolutions of the organisation;

Keeping within the company the knowledge-based specialists, their elite, which

became a central function of knowledge-based management on which the

functionality and the company performances depend in a great measure;

The subordination of all actions in the field of human resources to obtaining

competitive economic performances and ensuring the company sustainability.

The mentioned characteristics reflect in all processes which represent the content of

human resources management, leading to important modifications upon some of them.

6. Conclusions

Beginning with the times of the old, wealth and power were associated with the

possession of physical resources. Wealth and power in the 21st century will mainly result from

intangible intellectual resources from the knowledge capital.

The proliferation of new information and communication technologies, the changes in the

role and functions of knowledge cause profound modifications in the way in which people work,

learn, have fun and communicate.

As long as the mobility of information and globalization of employment increase, the

knowledge and expertise can be instantaneously transported around the globe so that any

advantage based on such differences can disappear over the night. The only advantage that can

8

be maintained is the one given by a continuous innovation process and by the creative talent of

knowledge operators in order to manage a continuous flow of issues and challenges – the

capacity to extract value from information.

We are now an information society in a knowledge-based economy where the knowledge

management is essential and the human factor is decisive in outlining this type of management.

7. Bibliography

Beazley H., J. Boenisch, D. Harden, Continuity Management: Preserving Corporate Knowledge

and Productivity When Employees Leave, John Wiley & Sons, 2002

Drucker, P., F., Post Capitalist Society, New York: HarperCollins, 1993

Drucker, P., F., Management Challenges of the 21st Century, New York: HarperCollins, 1999

Hambrick, D. C, Mason, P. A. , The organization as a reflection of its top managers, Academy of

Management Review, 1984

Hitt, M., L. Bierman, K. Shimizu, R. Kochhar, Direct and Moderating Effects of Human Capital on

Strategy and Performance in Professional Service Firms: A Resource-Based Perspective, The

Academy of Management Journal, Vol.44, 2001

Lengnick-Hall, M., C., Lengnick-Hall, Human Resource Management in the Knowledge Economy,

Berrett Koehler, 2003

Manasco, B., Leading companies focus on managing and masuring intellectual capital, 2000

Nicolescu O., Luminiţa Nicolescu, Economia, firma şi managementul bazate pe cunoştinţe,

Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2005

Nicolescu O., Managementul resurselor umane bazate pe cunoştinţe, „Raporturi de muncă”, nr.

1, ianuarie 2005

Price A., (), Human Resource Management in a Business Context, 2nd Edition, Thomson

Learning, 2004

Thompson J., Organization in Action., New York: Mc- Graw-Hill, 1967

Yahya S.; Goh W-K. Managing human resources toward achieving knowledge management,

Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2002

9

TIC IMPLEMENTATION – KEY PREMISE IN ORDER TO INTEGRATE SMEs ON THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS

Cornel SOMESAN1 and Alexandra ROSU2

ABSTRACT

The first thing we must point out is that this paper tries to provide a reply to the following question: what is the most suitable way to evaluate innovation at SMEs level? The main goal of this work is to contribute to TIC implementation as a driver of the actual economics growth. In this paper we will not attempt to show the entire possible recommendations of this theme as we are still working on them.Our work will focus on the new opportunities and challenges brought into play by the current e-economics game. As a result, we divided the paper into five sections. In the first, we made a short presentation regarding the knowledge economics. In the second section, we analyzed the situation at the European and international level. The third one is based on the TIC stage, as a vital and permanent solution for the national SMEs evolution. In the fourth section we offer a realistic image regarding the TIC market perspective in our country. In the fifth and final section, we show some recommendations, in way to develop and implement TIC efficiently at the Romanian SMEs level.From these points of view, TIC appears as vital and relational advantages for the economical development in this new age of the whole globalize society. In this context, an interesting question arises: how we should perceive the impact and effects of globalization at SMEs level and also its specific field of knowledge? Thinking like this, it will be seasonable the creation and implementation of a new TIC model, in which SMEs are able to explore fast solutions to problems shared in common. This paper concludes with a realistic TIC overview and some future directions for the Romanian SMEs.

KEYWORDS: e-economics, globalization, knowledge economics, SMEs, TIC

INTRODUCTION

The „new economie” concept is reffered especially to the actual transformations of the economics activities as a result of the digital technologie utilization, which assure the information acces, processing and stocking in a easier and cheaper manner. The new ecconomie is characterized by the intensification of the knowledge including in the new products and services, increasing of learning and innovation importance, globalization and durable developing. The serious volume of information change the function market manner, making possible the entities restructuration and the appearance of new opportunities for to value creation through disponible information exploitation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

1 Prof. univ.dr., „Vasile Goldis” West University Arad, Romania, [email protected] Asist. univ., „Vasile Goldis” West University Arad, Romania, [email protected]

Nowadays, the information become an essential resource in developping of the modern societies, evolved from the political, economical and social point of view. The dinamism and complexity of the new society maneer, which entrain a continuous increase of the remaked information volume and diversity and which utilize at large scale the information and communication technologies (TIC or IT&C), have lead to the informational Society concept.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The informational Society represent a new human civilized stage, a new way of leaving, superiour qualitativ, which involve the intensive information utilization in all the activities spheres and human daily activities, with an vizible economic and social impact. The informational Society allow the lage acces to the inforation for its members, a new way of working and knowledge, accelerate the economic globalization possibilitie and also the increasing of social unity.

The technological support of the new society is based on three sectors: information technologies, communication technologies, multimedia containing (informational) production, sectors more and more convergent. These technologies, based on electronics starts, permited the apparition of new telematics and multimedia services and applications, which combine sound, image and text and utilize all the communication ways (telephone, fax, television and PC).

The informational Society integrate as well the durable developping objectives, based on social justice and chances equality, freedom, cultural diversity and innovative developping, ecological protection, industry and business environment reorganization. The major changes produced in the last years – the exponential increase of mobile comunications and the number of Internet utilisators, TIC sector contribution to the economical increase and jobs creation, the entities and business reorganization generally in order to benefit more efficient of new technologies, increasing developping of e-coomerce – soustain the transition from the industrial era to the post-industrial one.

The increasing of TIC utilization at the level of the countryes in developping was impressive although, unfortunately, it is registered big differences betweem the poor and the reach countries. This phenomenon (genericaly named „digital divide”) make the object or many prgrams and debats to international scale (G7, G8, ONU, UNESCO, OECD, and so on) beeing recognized the fact that for the countryes in developping the provocation is major. The differences between the countryes with higher and lower profits can be amplified, and the „digital divide” spectrum become more extensive. It isn’t only about the proper conectivity and durable developping, „digital divide” reoppening new misunderstanding at the international scale.

The obtaining of advantages offered by the future society model - informational Society – pose in front of the European Union problems whith maximal priority and urgency: creation of a new reglementations cadre, promotion of new culture and business entreprenorial spirit, obtaining the leader position in the new technologies field, citizens education and training, implementing of new business models. Starting from 1993, the European Union, through its political and executive organs, reacted through strategical decisions, recently integrated under the name of eEurope – a informational Society for all of us, by whom are proposed strategical objectives to accelerate the implementation of the digital technologies in Europe and the assurance of the necessary competences for to be utilized at a large scale. This initiative has a central role in the agenda of economic-social renewal which UE proposed and it constitue at the same time the key element follow by CE for the modernization of the european economie, for the informational Society tranzition.

The informational Society is a developping objective and not a isolated desideratum, it is an essential component of the developping political-economic program and a binding condition in order to participate to the unique european market. For the informational Society to bring benefice for all of us, the national needs must be integrated both in a regional and international context.

As a result, it is prescribe, the exact wording of the UE international strategie better proved scientifically in the TIC field, which to explore new markets for the european industry, to reinforce the competitivity of TIC european industry on the global markets and to promote the UE interests on the world-wide plan, by foccusing the attention and contributions in the followind domains:

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normative aspects, problems rely on the normative cooperation, standards, rights of the intellectual property

research and innovation, with accent on: cooperation in the TIC research, research infrastructure and TIC role in the landing of new global provocation (energetical efficiency, aging population, fronteers narrowing, etc.)

social aspects as: networks and informations secuity, Internet administration, digital gap between reach and poor coutries as well as the bilateral accords with the countries which aren’t yet UE or others groups members at the LRI (local-regional-international) level.

At the level of a consultation public concerning the oppening of new world-wide markets for the TIC industrie from Europe, closed in september 2007, in way to contribute to the reinforcement of the global position of TIC european industrie, Viviane Reding (Commissary for the informational society and media) affirmed that the TIC european industrie must think globaly and become globaly (...) We depose semnificatives efforts in order to create in Europe a telecomunications unique market, but we don’t have to overlook the global background. The european TIC industrie can conquer others external markets if we reinforce the competitivity and eliminate the barriers from the way of commerce in the third countries.

On this content, further we state the principals world-wide telecommnucications wholesales respectively world-wide equipments producers, just in way to observe the europea actors status, as follows:

Table 1

The TIC world-wide expensive have reached, in 2003, about 2400 mld. $, respectively 6,9% from the entire planet PIB and they are estimated to 3800 mld. $ in 2008. The TIC expensives at the entitie/economical branch/country/geographical region level become to be considered relevant for the economical behavior of the current entities.

The impact of this industy over the entire society marke this one to cannot be considered as an unimportant economical branch, reason for which in the majority of world-wide countries has been adopted priorities proactives politicals in order to create a favourable medium for the TIC soustenable developing, especially that in the developed and in developing countries has been created, in the specialist view, the said “digital divide”. At the european level, Roumania detain programs for the TIC domain, since 1990 has been adopted at the guvernamental level 10 priority programs. However, those implementation effort missed, as well as the measures of stimulation for the TIC adoption,

3

many from them being included in the programs already approved at the national level. The TIC domain developed with increasing rhytms, principally because of a privat ssector real dynamic, so that Romania is between the first 10 world-wide countries as increasing rate for the TIC comnsumption and Internet penetration. Thinking like this, the general Romanian standing at present is far of beeing satisfactory, the “digital divide” effects are numerous and at the same time dangerous for the future. At the moment, Romania is placed under the global level an more under the developed economies concernng the majority of indicatories which are defining TIC develpping process and also the “digital divide” phenomenon.

Romanian TIC industrie detain, presently, some distinct caracteristics, respectively: the macroeconomics context is favourable, the economical increase, inflation

government, finalization of the privatization process for the entities with state capital are capable to encourage investments and TIC consume.

the adhesion prolonged negociations have brought as early as possible the Roumanian legislation to the UE level, freezing like this every forme of gouvernamental aid for the TIC industrie, all the stimulants beeing considered as state suppors. A chance in this direction remain the adoption at the UE level of some new reglementations in order to encorage TIC implemtation and consumption and especialy for the Internet, for example the annulment of added value tax for the Internet consumers.

TIC industrie, representing a chance for the private national capital, is stronger dominated however by the foreign privat capital. So, we assist to the encouragement of the foreign privat capital in way to make investments at the Roumanian economics level.

The investments of he Roumanian capitalhave been maded preponderently in small entities and in the lat years at the microentities level, having as a result he dispersion of the privat capital for the TIC industrie.

Romanian TIC situation can be briefly presented, like this:

about 5000 graduates/every year, with TIC specialization skills positive image abroad of Roumanian software specialist it exist defficiences for some specialization and competence domains for: business

anaysts, network administrators, complex projects managers, marketing software specialists

70% from the TIC working force is concentrated in Bucharest About 25% from the well trained working force in the developped countries; at

internal level a big proportion from the specialists migrate to the biger national IT companies because of the salary long term opportunity.

Youg genererations (talking especially o the universitary level) are attached and interested about TIC utilization, but at the same time the adults ones detain however a limited perception towards the domain advantages and risks.

It still exist the risc o the TIC accesibility onl for the persons with big incomes, higher preparation level, localized especially at the urban centres.

The absorption power of the Roumanian new technologies is still limited because of the increased costs (resulting in a big proportion from the outside), bigger investments which imply them and technological dinamics changes specifical for the TIC domain.

The reseacher-developping-innovation funds in the TIC domain (4,5% from the budgetary researching funds), are smaller, comparatively with others countries, the obtained results are insuficient reevaluated. Still it aren’t outlined the niche domains in which Romania could obtain competitive advantages through the reaserch-developping-innovation activity

The participation to the european reasearch programs are under the funds limited subscribed by Roumania to these programs.

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The R&D and innovation efforts aren’t correlated with the investitional efforts in technologie for the privat sector.

In Romania, starting with the ’90 have been realized lot of studies and documents with strategical caracter concerning the TIC sector and then it passed to the informational society, deriving profit in this problematical point of view from many developped countries as France/Sema-Group, Danemark/DataCentralen, SUA/TDA, and so on.

The current government through its Program and action plans proposed for the 2001-2008 period accorded importance to this domain although not at the desired parameters, already accomplishing a series of initiatives which are destined to soustain the TIC sector developping as: urgencing of

developping the specifical reglementations cadre (electronical signature, electronical tranzactions, protection of data with personal caracter, some fiscal facilities for the software Roumanian citizens) and the launching of some pilot projects in order to demonstrate the benefices of the informational society especially at the customer/client level.

In the last years, the TIC industrie passed through a difficult adaptation and restructuration process, which evolved satisfactory over that market areas where we’re competitives, as an exemple, the software industrie. The table presented bellow confirm this statement:

Romanian TIC industrie produced, between 1997 and 2001, calculation equipmens, data transmission, telecommunication, software and services over 2 mld. in 2001, with an increase rate which has reached 45%, as the bellow table present:

5

In our opinion, the TIC Romanian market must be evaluated in the perspective of at least 3-4 years, until 2010-2013, in order to define he strategical orientations and options, associated with the actions directions neccesary to the realization of the prioritar objectives, relied on the developping of this country sector. That’s why we present in the next table, starting from our empirical research the national SWOT perspectives, respectively:

Table 4

STRENGTHS

1. Romania detain human resources well trained, which are recognized at the international level; 2. It exist a convergence between communication and infomational technologie, the new TIC

sector beeing integrated at the national market level and even coherent; 3. TIC community starts having personlity, through the increasing of the IT entities involving

degree, as well for the experts and others proffesional organizations; 4. The existing political situation is favorable to the TIC developping 5. The national capacity of the faster adapting to the modern technologies.6. Romania is situated in front of the proximity countries for the cable television; the number of

subscribers has reached 71% from the total national TV owners. 7. The increasing rate for the Internet utilisators for the national market is estimated to 43% this

year.8. The increasing rate for the mobile phone utilisators is the highest talking from the regional point

of view.9. Currently it is registered a telecommunication operators market. 10. The Romanian medium TIC developping rate is almost double regarding the actual world-wide

specialized one.

6

WEAKNESSES

1. It was applyed lots of strategies in he TIC field but the majojory failed because of the: discordant control sistems, conventional thinking, reticence toward change, incapacity to assign resorces, hiding of the unfavourable results and so on.

2. The current communication infrastructure is precarious, which involve considerable investments.

3. The educational system is gradually deteriorating because of the to the last inacessible technology arised in the domain.

4. Romania has currently an economical system which aren’t totaly functional 5. The salary level for the national TIC specialists is slower, comparative with the

developped countries.6. The existing legal cadre do not allow an accelerate domain developping. 7. The bigger rate of the piracy concerning the software utilization (about 75%)8. about 78% from the commercial entities which have activities related with TIC area,

have TIC as a secundar activity 9. Considerable discrepancy concerning the number of Internet Romanian utilizators

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, it is imposed, the gradual elimination of the Romanian imperfections found at the TIC area, with the help of the already existed opportunies at the current national level. At the same time, we appreciate that the above-mentioned threatening can be avoided through the increase of the national strong points as well as the choise of an adequate strategie, with positive effects long terme involved.

As a result, for the proposed targets touching, it is necessary to implement â permanent national strategic control, at the same time with with the strategy soustaining, although it still exist a series of barriers which can encumber the effectuation of such wishes, respectively:

• Systematic barriers: deficiences in the control system projection and administration;• Behvior barriers: conventional thinking, entity culture, knowable limits, changing

resistence; • Others barriers: consensus incapacity towards TIC strategies, hiding of unfavorable

results.

OPPORTUNITIES

1. The current world-wide tendencies in order to direct towards the informational sociaty (erasing of the interhuman obstacles), digital divide (reducing of the digital inequality) etc.

2. It exist a semnificant specialists demand in this field at the developped countries level (about 60000 specialists);

3. UE impose to the Romanian market also some strict conditions which are connected to the TIC developpment sector

4. At the mment it exist many international funds dedicated to TIC implementatios at the countries in developpment level as: eContent, IST, IDA, SIA, etc.

5. The tehnological progress make possible the convergence for the communication channels. For example, the interactive television, voice services, videoconferences and data transmissions can be integrated in a single communication channel.

7

THREATS

1. It decrease the number of the human resurces well trained which are working in Romania because of the increase TIC specialists demand Scade numărul resurselor umane bine pregătite care lucrează în Romania in the developped countries.

2. Utilization of alternative infrastructures impose additional investments for the operators. 3. The existing concurence on the wrld-wide countries.4. The operators reticence towards the changes in the TIC field.

As the knowledge economie evolution, the TIC exclusion become, in a higher degree, a barrier in front of the econmical, social and engagement opportunities, as well for the public services utiliation.

On the other hand, TIC can brake the distances barriers, can distribute more equitable the knowledge resources and can generate new services for the citizens with special needs in a proactive and more flexible way. The information accesibility and online services is a precondition for the assurement to a informational Society oppend to everyone.

The new digital technologies make the acces, storage and informational transmission more and more decipherable. Disposing of digital information, this one can be transformed in new ecnomical and social values, creating huge opportuniies for the new products and services developpment, the information becoming practically the primary key-resource for the current e-economy.

Considering all the aspects presented in this work, we recommend the passing to the informational Society as a Romanian long term strategic and developping objective.

REFERENCES

Aranda J., Easterbrook S. M., and Wilson. G., Requirements in the wild: How small companies do it. To appear, proceedings of the 15th IEEE International Requirements Engineering Conference (RE'07), Delhi, India, 15-19 October 2007.

Aranda, J., Khuwaja, R. and Easterbrook, S. M. Discovering the Shared Understanding Dynamics of Large Software Teams. 17th International Conference of the IBM Centers for Advanced Studies (CASCON'07), Toronto, Canada, 22-25 Oct 2007.

Diez, M., A. & Esteban, M.,S. - The evaluation of regional innovation and cluster policies: looking for new approaches, 4th EES Conference, Lausanne, oct. 12-14, 2000

Niu N., and Easterbrook S. M., So, You Think You Know Others' Goals? A Repertory Grid Study. IEEE Software, Vol 24, No 2, p53-61, March/April 2007.

Réal, I., Quellet, P. - Globalization, economie du savoir et competitivite: proposition d’orientations pour les intermediaries du developpement, 6em Congres International francophone sur la PME, Montreal, HEC, 2002

Someşan C., Schebesch B.K. - The impact of economic globalization and of the European integration on Romanian Small and Medium Enterprises, BRNO Conference, 2007

Torres, O. - Du role et de l’importance de la proximite dans la specificite de gestion des PME, Colloque International Francophome de la PME, Lille, 25 au 27 Octobre, 2000

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http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MS.2007.52

http://www.cs.toronto.edu/~sme/papers/2007/Aranda-CASCON2007-Final.pdf

http://www.cs.toronto.edu/~sme/papers/2007/Aranda-CASCON2007-Final.pdf

http://www.cs.toronto.edu/~sme/papers/2007/REinthewild.pdf

Studies about safety and hazard of GSM cellular phones

Eng. Argint Cornel*, Ph D studentProf. Eng. Niculescu Tudor**, Ph D

AbstractRF radiation at sufficiently high power levels can cause some heating by inducing small

electric currents and increasing molecular movement. Protection guidelines are set according to these

thermal properties. A typical GSM digital cellular phone operating at a maximum average power output

of about 0.25 watts (W) might results in a SAR of about 0.5-1.5 W/kg averaged over a gram of tissue,

and an associated very low rise in brain temperature (maximum 0.1º C). However, effects have also

been reported in cells and animals after exposures to very low-intensity radiofrequency radiation (like

in GSM phones) that apparently cannot cause a significant change in temperature.

There are a lot of studies about the mobile phones radiation. Different propagation

characteristics such as ‘modulation,’ or different waveforms and shapes may have different effects on

a living system. Different biological effects may result depending on the intensity, waveform, and

duration of the exposure.

The majority of the biological studies on RFR have been conducted with short-term

exposures, i.e. a few minutes to several hours. Little is known about the effects of long-term exposure.

What are the effects of long-term exposure? Does long-term exposure produce different effects from

short-term exposure? Do effects accumulate over time?

I. The field of studies

In the last years, the mobile phone communications have exponentially grown. Cellular

phones and their base stations transmit and receive RF signals between about 450 to 2200 MHz

which fall in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

The main problem about health is that the electromagnetic radiation emitted by cell phones

means a hazard for peoples.

It is important to distinguish between biological or physiological effects and health effects. If an

effect of an electromagnetic field has been demonstrated in experimental research on an isolated

biological system, for instance an effect on cultured cells, this does not necessarily imply that

exposure to such a field will lead to adverse effects for the health of the organism as a whole. Nor, in

the absence of supporting evidence, should effects detected by sensitive measurement methods, such

as subtle changes in reaction speed or in the natural pattern of brain waves during sleep in humans,

be regarded as harmful to health. The reason for this is that the human body has a great capacity for

adequately processing external influences and, if necessary, effectively resisting them (with the aid of

the immune system), compensating for them (homeostasis) or successfully adapting to them

(specifically with the nervous and the endocrine systems).

* Ministry of Defence, [email protected]** Ecological University, Bucharest

Propagation of information by mobile telecommunication systems is usually performed by

highly complex high-frequency electromagnetic fields. It is however not correct to assume that clearly

discernible and possibly biologically effective low-frequency components are present in the

electromagnetic signal of a base station or of a mobile telephone. Low-frequency components can

only become manifest upon exposure if a highly specific demodulation of the carrier wave occurs, as

in receivers designed for this purpose. There are no reasons to assume that such demodulation

mechanisms are available to biological systems.

There is no question that radiofrequency radiation (RFR) affects functions in cells and living

organisms. One important determinant of effects is the amount of energy deposited in or absorbed by

the exposed object. In addition, there are some indications that biological effects may also depend on

how the energy is deposited. Different propagation characteristics such as ‘modulation,’ or different

waveforms and shapes may have different effects on a living system. Different biological effects may

result depending on the intensity, waveform, and duration of the exposure.

Biological effects can occur after exposure to high intensity of RFR that can cause general or

local heating. However, effects have also been reported in cells and animals after exposures to very

low-intensity RFR that apparently cannot cause a significant change in temperature.

Various biological outcomes have been reported after long-term/repeated exposure to RFR:

(1) Effects were observed after prolonged, repeated exposure but not after short-term exposure [e.g.,

Baranski, 1972; Takashima et al., 1979].

(2) Effects that were observed after short-term exposure, disappeared after prolonged, repeated

exposure (habituation) [e.g., Johnson et al., 1983; Lai et al., 1987, 1992].

(3) Different effects were observed after different durations of exposure [e.g., Di Carlo et al., 2002;

Dumanski and Shandala, 1974; Lai et al., 1989].

(4) There is also indication that an animal becomes more sensitive to the radiation after long-term

exposure [e.g., see de Lorge and Ezell, 1980; de Lorge 1984, D’Andrea et al. 1986.

The conclusion from a series of experiments on ‘disruption of behavior’ in animals after one-

time exposure to RFR is that disruption of behavior occurred when an animal was exposed at a SAR

of approximately 4 W/kg, and disruption occurred after 30-60 minutes of exposure. However after

long-term exposure (7 hr/day, 7 days/week for 90 days14 weeks), the threshold for behavioral and

physiological effects of RFR was found to occur between 0.14 W/kg and 0.7 W/kg. Thus, RFR can

produce an effect at much lower intensities after an animal is chronically exposed. This can have very

significant implications for people exposed to RFR in the environment. The conclusion from this body

of work is that effects of long-term exposure can be quite different from those of short-term exposure.

There is also some evidence that effects of RFR accumulate over time. Here are some

examples: Phillips et al. (1998) reported DNA damage in cells after 24 hours of exposure to low

intensity RFR. DNA damage can lead to gene mutation, which accumulates over time. Magras and

Xenos (1999) reported that mice exposed to low-intensity RFR became less reproductive. After five

generations of exposure, the mice were not able to produce offspring. This shows that the effect of

RFR can pass from one generation to another. Persson et al. (1997) reported an increase in

permeability of the blood-brain barrier in mice when the energy deposited in the body exceeded 1.5

J/kg (joule per kilogram) – a measurement of the total amount of energy deposited. This suggests that

a short-term/high intensity exposure can produce the same effect as a long-term/low intensity

exposure. This is another indication that RFR effects can accumulate over time.

In many RFR exposure guidelines, a limit of 0.4 W/kg is used based on the experimental

results that disruption of behavior in animals occurs at 4 W/kg. However, there are many studies that

show biological effects at SARs less than 4 W/kg after short-term exposure to RFR. For example,

behavioral effects have been observed at SARs less than 4 W/kg:

- D’Andrea et al (1986) - 0.14 to 0.7 W/kg;

- DeWitt et al. (1987) - 0.14 W/kg;

- Gage (1979) - 3 W/kg;

- King et al. (1971) - 2.4 W/kg;

- Lai et al. (1989) - 0.6 W/kg;

- Mitchell et al. (1977) - 2.3 W/kg;

- Navakatikian and Tomashevskaya (1994) - 0.027 W/kg;

- Schrot et al. (1980) - 0.7 W/kg;

- Thomas et al. (1975) - 1.5 to 2.7 W/kg;

- Wang and Lai (2000) - 1.2 W/kg.

There are also many reports of other biological functions affected by RFR at a SAR less than

4 W/kg. Therefore, the rationale of 4 W/kg should be reconsidered.

For decades, there have been questions about whether an effect of RFR is thermal (i.e., a

significant change in temperature) or non-thermal (i.e., no significant change in temperature).

However, we actually don’t need to know whether RFR effects are thermal or non-thermal to

set exposure guidelines for RFR exposure. Most of the studies on biological effects of RFR carried out

since the 1980’s were under ‘non-thermal’ conditions. In studies using isolated cells, the ambient

temperature during exposure was generally well controlled. In most animal studies, the RFR intensity

used usually did not cause a significant increase in body temperature of the animals exposed. There

are several arguments for the existence of non-thermal effects:

1. There are reports that RFRs of the same frequency and intensity but with different modulations and

waveforms produce different effects [Arber and Lin, 1985; Baranski, 1972; Frey et al., 1975; Oscar and

Hawkins, 1977; Sanders et al., 1985].

2. RFR triggers effects different from an increase in temperature [de Pomerai et al., 2002; D'Inzeo et

al., 1988; Seaman and Wachtel, 1978; Wachtel et al., 1975].

3. Effects are observed with RFR of very low intensities, when temperature increase is unlikely [e.g.,

de Pomerai et al., 2000].

II. Effects of electromagnetic field

There are some interaction mechanisms between electromagnetic field and human body>

1. Temperature changes. The findings of model studies on temperature changes in the head

to do not give the EU Committee grounds to revise the existing recommendations on exposure limits.

To give the standards in this frequency range a sounder basis, it is nevertheless deemed necessary to

gain a better understanding of the dosimetry of electromagnetic fields. In order to obtain this,

additional data are needed on the relationship between temperature, absorbed energy levels, and the

type and volume of the tissue in which these parameters are determined.

2. Cognitive functions. In a few human volunteer studies, subtle changes have been found in

certain cognitive functions, such as memory and reaction speed. Although this suggests an influence

from electromagnetic fields on brain activity under certain conditions, the effects involved are

extremely small and reversible. The Committee, therefore, does not regard them as harmful to health.

Experiments on laboratory animals provide only equivocal evidence of possible effects on learning

behaviour in rodents as a result of exposure to electromagnetic fields at relatively low field strengths.

However, the EU Committee considers experiments of this kind to be less suitable for demonstrating a

possible effect of mobile telephones on learning ability in humans, deeming experiments with

volunteers to be of considerably greater significance. The conclusion is, that the available scientific

data does not indicate an adverse effect on cognitive abilities, even in people who make frequent use

of mobile telephones.

3. Brain activity. Several studies have shown that exposure to a GSM signal during sleep

exerts effects on natural brain activity. However, the EU Committee concludes that the data on this are

equivocal. No correlation has been observed with increasing field strength. It is nevertheless striking

that, in one of the studies, changes in brain activity during sleep were found following exposure prior to

falling asleep. The Committee feels that, on the basis of these findings, there is no reason to suppose

that the effects, in so far as they are real, lead to health problems. It points out that similar effects on

brain activity have also been found as a result of caffeine use and natural hormonal fluctuations.

4. Cancer. Several epidemiological studies, some of which have been conducted on a very

large scale, have focused on a possible link between the occurrence of brain tumours and mobile

telephone use. In none of these studies has such a link been found for brain

tumours in general. However, in some studies a weak association has been observed between the

use of a mobile telephone and the occurrence of certain tumours on the side of the head where, as

indicated by the subjects, the mobile telephone was normally held. However, this association is not

significant and has only been found in studies that had a number of important methodological

shortcomings. These epidemiological findings are substantiated by data from animal experiments.

Only in one study an effect has been found, but the experimental design was such that no satisfactory

conclusions can be drawn. Two replications of this study are currently being carried out. However, the

question arises as to whether the mouse strain used in these studies, which exhibits a high

spontaneous incidence of tumours as a result of a genetic mutation, represents a good model for

humans. A major question is whether mobile telephones have been in use for a sufficient period of

time to allow any effect on the development of brain tumours to be detected. The use of mobile

telephones by large parts of the population has been going on for only a few years. Although in none

of the studies a link has been found between usage time and the occurrence of cancer, the number of

people in the longest-use category (five years or more) is relatively low. A major international study is

currently being conducted under the auspices of the International Agency for Research on Cancer

(IARC) to investigate the possible relationship between (digital) mobile telephone use and the

occurrence of tumours in the head-neck region. Initial results from that study are not due before 2003.

5. Cardiovascular system. There is no evidence to suggest that electromagnetic fields from

mobile telephones have any effect on the cardiovascular system. Exposure to a mobile telephone

signal seems to have no influence on natural variations in cardiac rhythm, and research data indicating

a possible influence on blood pressure have recently been withdrawn: they proved to be the result of a

direct action of the electromagnetic field on the measuring equipment.

6. Hormones. Studies on volunteers and on animals suggest that GSM fields have no effect

on hormone levels.

7. Blood-brain barrier. A number of studies from the 1970s and 1980s seem to indicate that

exposure to electromagnetic fields affects the permeability of the blood-brain barrier. However, recent

research has been unable to reproduce these effects. The Committee is of the opinion that there are

no scientific grounds to assume the existence of such effects. Immune system The Committee

considers that there is no convincing evidence that the immune system is affected by electromagnetic

fields.

III. The results of some studies

The following is a list of some studies about the effects of electromagnetic waves. Some

studies only give the power density, in mW/cm2, of the radiation, whereas others give the specific

absorption rate (SAR), in W/kg, in the exposed objects.

(1) Balode (1996)- blood cells from cows from a farm close and in front of a radar showed significantly

higher level of severe genetic damage.

(2) Boscol et al. (2001)- RFR from radio transmission stations (0.005 mW/cm2) affects immunological

system in women.

(3) Chiang et al. (1989)- people lived and worked near radio antennae and radar installations showed

deficits in psychological and short-term memory tests.

(4) De Pomerai et al. (2000, 2002) reported an increase in a molecular stress response in cells after

exposure to a RFR at a SAR of 0.001 W/kg. This stress response is a basic biological process that is

present in almost all animals - including humans.

(5) D'Inzeo et al. (1988)- very low intensity RFR (0.0020.004 mW/cm2) affects the operation of

acetylcholine-related ion-channels in cells. These channels play important roles in physiological and

behavioral functions.

(6) Dolk et al. (1997)- a significant increase in adult leukemias was found in residence who lived near

the Sutton Coldfield television and frequency-modulation (FM) radio transmitter in England.

(7) Dutta et al. (1989) reported an increase in calcium efflux in cells after exposure to RFR at 0.005 W/

kg. Calcium is an important component of normal cellular functions.

(8) Fesenko et al. (1999) reported a change in immunological functions in mice after exposure to RFR

at a power density of 0.001 mW/cm2.

(9) Hjollund et al. (1997)- sperm counts of Danish military personnel, who operated mobile ground-to-

air missile units that use several RFR emitting radar systems (maximal mean exposure 0.01

mW/cm2), were significantly low compared to references.

(10) Hocking et al. (1996)- an association was found between increased childhood leukemia incidence

and mortality and proximity to TV towers.

(11) Ivaschuk et al. (1999)- short-term exposure to cellular phone RFR of very low SAR (26 mW/kg)

affected a gene related to cancer.

(12) Kolodynski and Kolodynska (1996)- school Children lived in front of a radio station had less

developed memory and attention, their reaction time was slower, and their neuromuscular apparatus

endurance was decreased.

(13) Kwee et al. (2001)- 20 minutes of cell phone RFR exposure at 0.0021 W/kg increased stress

protein in human cells.

(14) Lebedeva et al. (2000)- brain wave activation was observed in human subjects exposed to

cellular phone RFR at 0.06 mW/cm2.

(15) Magras and Xenos (1999) reported a decrease in reproductive function in mice exposed to RFR

at power densities of 0.000168 - 0.001053 mW/cm2.

(16) Mann et al. (1998)- a transient increase in blood cortisol was observed in human subjects

exposed to cellular phone RFR at 0.02 mW/cm2. Cortisol is a hormone involved in stress reaction.

(17) Michelozzi et al. (1998)- leukemia mortality within 3.5 km (5,863 inhabitants) near a high power

radio-transmitter in a peripheral area of Rome was higher than expected.

(18) Michelozzi et al. (2002)- childhood leukemia higher at a distance up to 6 km from a radio station.

(19) Navakatikian and Tomashevskaya (1994)- RFR at low intensities (0.01 - 0.1 mW/cm2; 0.0027-

0.027 W/kg) induced behavioral and endocrine changes in rats. Decreases in blood concentrations of

testosterone and insulin were reported.

(20) Novoselova et al. (1999)-low intensity RFR (0.001 mW/cm2) affects functions of the immune

system.

(21) Persson et al. (1997) reported an increase in the permeability of the blood-brain barrier in mice

exposed to RFR at 0.0004 - 0.008 W/kg. The blood-brain barrier envelops the brain and protects it

from toxic substances.

(22) Phillips et al. (1998) reported DNA damage in cells exposed to RFR at SAR of 0.0024 - 0.024

W/kg.

(23) Santini et al. (2002)- increase in complaint frequencies for tiredness, headache, sleep

disturbance, discomfort, irritability, depression, loss of memory, dizziness, libido decrease, in people

who lived within 300 m of mobile phone base stations.

(24) Schwartz et al. (1990)- calcium movement in the heart affected by RFR at SAR of 0.00015 W/kg.

Calcium is important in muscle contraction. Changes in calcium can affect heart functions.

(25) Somosy et al. (1991)- RFR at 0.024 W/kg caused molecular and structural changes in cells of

mouse embryos.

(26) Stagg et al. (1997)- glioma cells exposed to cellular phone RFR at 0.0059 W/kg showed

significant increases in thymidine incorporation, which may be an indication of an increase in cell

division.

(27) Stark et al. (1997)- a two- to seven-fold increase of salivary melatonin concentration was

observed in dairy cattle exposed to RFR from a radio transmitter antenna.

(28) Tattersall et al. (2001)- low-intensity RFR (0.0016 - 0.0044 W/kg) can modulate the function of a

part of the brain called the hippocampus, in the absence of gross thermal effects. The changes in

excitability may be consistent with reported behavioral effects of RFR, since the hippocampus is

involved in learning and memory.

(29) Vangelova et al. (2002)- operators of satellite station exposed to low dose (0.1127 J/kg) of RFR

over a 24-hr shift showed an increased excretion of stress hormones.

(30) Velizarov et al. (1999) showed a decrease in cell proliferation (division) after exposure to RFR of

0. 000021 - 0.0021 W/kg. (31) Veyret et al. (1991)- low intensity RFR at SAR of 0.015 W/kg affects

functions of the immune system.

(32) Wolke et al. (1996)- RFR at 0.001W/kg affects calcium concentration in heart muscle cells of

guinea pigs.

IV. Conclusions

As you can see, some of these effects occurred at surprisingly low intensities or SARs. It is

apparent that low-intensity RFR is not biologically inert. When using a cell phone, because of the

closeness of the antenna, a large amount of energy can be deposited in the head of a user. Relatively

high SARs have been reported in various studies: Dimbylow and Mann (1994)- 2.3 and 4.8 W/kg/gm

tissue per W output at 900 MHz and 1.8 GHz; Anderson and Joyner (1995)- 0.12-0.83 W/kg; Gandhi

et al. (1999)- 0.13-5.41 W/kg/gm tissue at 0.6 W output (835 and 1900 MHz); and Van de Kamer and

Lagendijk (2002)- 1.72-2.55 W/kg /gm tissue at 0.25 W output (915 MHz).

The majority of the biological studies on RFR have been conducted with short-term

exposures, i.e. a few minutes to several hours. Little is known about the effects of long-term exposure.

What are the effects of long-term exposure? Does long-term exposure produce different effects from

short-term exposure? Do effects accumulate over time?

References[1] Chiang, H., Yao, G.D., Fang, Q.S., Wang, K.Q., Lu, D.Z., Zhou, Y.K., 1989, Health effects of

environmental electromagnetic fields. J. Bioelectricity, no 8, 127-131

[2] S.L., Lin, J.C., 1985, Microwave-induced changes in nerve cells: effects of modulation and

temperature. Bioelectromagnetics no 6, 257-270

[3] King, N.W., Justesen, D.R., Clarke, R.L., 1971, Behavioral sensitivity to microwave irradiation.

Science no 172, 398-401

[3] Sajin Gheorghe, Gavriloaia Gheorghe, Absorbţia câmpului electromagnetic în zona capului uman,

Military Technical Academy Press House, Bucharest, 2002

The basic limits for radiofrecuency emissions

Eng. Argint Cornel*, Ph D student

AbstractMobile telecommunication has boomed in recent years and has acquired an important

place in society. Prompted by these developments, society is radically changing. People can, if

they wish, be accessible everywhere and at all times (of course, within the capabilities of the

telecommunication networks). The advent of technologies allowing for the high-speed

transmission of large amounts of data means that it will soon be possible to exchange not only

speech and brief messages but also video and other large data files. This will facilitate the use of

mobile videophones and mobile access to the Internet.

Despite their acknowledged benefits, all these technological developments nonetheless

also cause many people concerns. In particular, one common matter of concern is whether

increasing exposure to the electromagnetic fields generated during wireless communication could

lead to health problems. An argument regularly put forward in this debate is that man’s

electromagnetic environment is rapidly changing, that the human body is not built for this and

cannot adapt quickly enough. Consequently, such changes would have adverse implications for

body functioning. It is therefore appropriate to determine whether there is any scientific evidence

to support this supposition.

From this reason, the conclusions regarding the health effects of exposure to

electromagnetic fields must have a scientific base. It considers the existence of an effect, whether

a biological effect or an effect on health, only to be scientifically demonstrated in the event of

compliance with the some objective requirements.

I. Introduction

Mobile telecommunication has boomed in recent years and has acquired an important

place in society. Prompted by these developments, society is radically changing. People can, if

they wish, be accessible everywhere and at all times (of course, within the capabilities of the

telecommunication networks). The advent of technologies allowing for the high-speed

transmission of large amounts of data means that it will soon be possible to exchange not only

speech and brief messages but also video and other large data files.

Despite their acknowledged benefits, all these technological developments nonetheless

also cause many people concerns. In particular, one common matter of concern is whether

increasing exposure to the electromagnetic fields generated during wireless communication could

* Ministry of Defence, [email protected]

lead to health problems. An argument regularly put forward in this debate is that man’s

electromagnetic environment is rapidly changing, that the human body is not built for this and

cannot adapt quickly enough. Consequently, such changes would have adverse implications for

body functioning. It is therefore appropriate to determine whether there is any scientific evidence

to support this supposition.

II. Basic limits

Various national and international organizations have made proposals for exposure limits.

In 1997, the Health Council of the Netherlands issued the advisory report Radiofrequency

electromagnetic fields (300 Hz - 300 GHz), in which limits were proposed for the frequency range

in question (HCN97). In 1998, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection

(ICNIRP) issued guidelines for the 0 Hz - 300 GHz frequency range which broadly match the

recommendations of the Health Council of the Netherlands (ICN98). Only in the highest

frequency range is there a difference. A description of the way in which the limits have been

established can be found in the reports indicated. The Committee here gives a short summary of

the most important principles.

In their recommendations, both the Health Council of the Netherlands and ICNIRP

distinguish between so-called basic restrictions and reference levels (also called derived values).

The basic restrictions are maximum values for variables directly relating to a health effect. In the

frequency range above around 100 kHz, which covers radio frequencies and thus also the

frequencies used for mobile telecommunication, the relevant effect is heat generation. If an

organism is exposed to an electromagnetic field, some of the electromagnetic energy is absorbed

by the body and converted into heat. Ina microwave oven, the same principle is used to heat food

or liquids. Excessive heat generated in the body may, however, result in adverse health effects.

On the basis of scientific data obtained from laboratory animals and volunteers, it has been

established that if the increase in body temperature does not exceed 1°C, this does not lead to

health problems even in the case of long-term exposure.

The variable used to express absorbed energy per unit time is the specific absorption rate

(SAR), expressed in watts per kg. The SAR is defined as the derivation, as a function of time, of

the energy W absorbed by a mass m in a volume V of density ρ:

It is assumed in all the guidelines that, if the average SAR in the body does not exceed 4

W/kg, body temperature does not rise by more than 1°C. As a result of factors such as the

extrapolation of experimental animal data to humans, and the existence of human subpopulations

who, for various reasons, are more sensitive to heat gain than others (for example young

children, frail elderly and sick people), safety margins have been built into the guidelines. A

distinction is made between workers and the general population. The term 'workers' does, in this

case, not pertain to everyone who works. It refers to healthy adults who, in the course of their

professional duties, may be exposed to electromagnetic fields, who are familiar with the risks of

such exposure and who know how they should handle these risks. A safety margin of a factor of

10 applies to them, i.e. they may be exposed to a maximum SAR of 0.4 W/kg. Everyone else

belongs to the general population and is subject to a safety factor of 50. Consequently, the

maximum permissible SAR for this group is 0.08 W/kg. These values pertain to total body

exposure. When mobile phones are used only part of the body is exposed: the head, especially

the side where the telephone is held, and the hand holding the telephone. With respect to partial

body exposure both the Health Council of the Netherlands and ICNIRP deem higher SAR values

acceptable.

For the general population a SAR of 2 W/kg has been proposed for the head and a value

of 4 W/kg for the hand. The corresponding values for workers are a SAR of 10 W/kg for the head

and 20 W/kg for the hand. In chapter 4 the Committee elaborates on this subject.

Owing to the differing electromagnetic properties of tissues in the body, local differences

in temperature increase will occur. However, as a result of the removal of heat by blood

circulation, these are partially nullified. Consequently, a thermal equilibrium will eventually be

achieved, where the supply of heat through exposure to the electromagnetic field and the removal

of heat through blood circulation and heat transfer to the environment through radiation,

convection and sweating are in balance. For this reason, the aforementioned SAR maxima are

intended as an average over any 6-minute period. These are the basic restrictions that must be

met at all times.

III. EU recommendations

When a mobile telephone is in use, the antenna of the device is near the user's body,

generally near the head. Part of the emitted power is absorbed by the body. The latter is

composed of different tissues with widely varying and frequency-dependent electromagnetic

characteristics (Gab96, Pey01). The amount of energy that a body can extract from an

electromagnetic field is highly dependent on the frequency of the field, the size and dimensions of

the body and the tissues in the exposed parts of the body.

Absorption of electromagnetic energy leads to warming of body tissues. Owing to the

differing electromagnetic characteristics of the tissues, local differences in temperature gain will

arise which are in turn partly cancelled out by heat dissipation through blood circulation.

Eventually, thermal equilibrium will be achieved. This means that the supply of heat through

exposure to the electromagnetic field and the removal of heat through blood circulation and heat

emission to the environment through radiation, convection and sweating are in balance with each

other. Once exposure is stopped, body temperature will gradually return to the preexposure level.

Calculations and experiments with volunteers show that, in resting individuals, it takes about an

hour for the body to return to the starting temperature.

In case of exposure to pulsed fields, the maximum achievable temperature is roughly

equal to the temperature that would be caused by exposure to a continuous field with the same

average SAR.

Various guidelines and recommendations for exposure limits that have been developed

over the last few years provide a maximum SAR for local exposure. In Western European

standards, this represents a mean for a volume of 10 g tissue and in the most important US

standard a mean for 1 g tissue 30 Mobile telephones. SAR values are known for a number of

types of mobile telephone. With few exceptions, these do not exceed the standard values at

maximum transmission power.

The EU Committee would point out that the electromagnetic field generated by the

antenna of a mobile telephone behaves randomly in the near field (a region within a radius of

about 30 cm from the telephone. Values determined on the basis of measurements and

calculations are highly dependent on the defined set-up or configuration. This is because the

presence of the head and hand, for example, has a major impact. It is not possible to extrapolate

SAR values determined under far-field conditions to a situation in the near field. It is therefore

important to have a harmonized standard to unambiguously determine the local SAR in the near

field. In Europe, the basic standard EN50361 and product standard EN50360, drawn up by

CENELEC.

The basic standard regulates which emission requirements products must meet (in this

case, the values from the ICNIRP guideline), while the product standard regulates how the

emission level must be determined. This represents a major step towards an unambiguous

definition of the measurements for determining the SAR values associated with the use of mobile

and wireless telephones. There is no simple rule of thumb that can enable results obtained by

another measurement procedure to be compared with or extrapolated to values obtained with this

new standard. Significant amounts of electromagnetic energy are only absorbed in the head

when making calls on a mobile phone, during which time it is held against the head. This does not

occur in any other situation. If the telephone is in use, but is not held to the head (when using a

handsfree set, for example) the level of electromagnetic energy absorbed by the body and the

region of the body affected will depend on the position of the device relative to the body. When

sending or receiving SMS messages, energy absorption is negligible. Composition or reading of a

message takes place in standby mode, and sending or receiving a message takes no more than

a few seconds. In addition, in this situation the telephone is held at some distance from the body.

The concerns expressed in this regard by the British Medical Association in a recent

report (BMA01) are therefore unjustified. If the telephone is on standby, it regularly emits short

(1-2 s) pulses for the purpose of position-finding within the network. The intervals between such

pulses vary – depending on the network settings – from 20 minutes to several hours. The pulse is

initially broadcasted at full power, but the power is then reduced. This reduction will depend on

the phone’s position relative to the nearest base station and the setting of that base station. This

determines the maximum transmission power of the GSM telephone. If a call takes place, a link is

established and the telephone transmits continuously. Here, too, this process takes place initially

for a very short time on full power, with the power then being reduced to the minimum level

required for a good link. During the call, the telephone transmits as indicated earlier in this

chapter.

III. Conclusions

The EU Committee finds no reason in the scientific data concerning non-thermal effects

to apply the precautionary principle and lower the SAR limits for partial body exposure. So, until

scientific reports will demonstrate that the lower levels of electromagnetic field could have health

effects on the human body, the exposure limitations will remain unchanged.

References

[1] Chiang, H., Yao, G.D., Fang, Q.S., Wang, K.Q., Lu, D.Z., Zhou, Y.K., 1989, Health effects of

environmental electromagnetic fields. J. Bioelectricity, no 8, 127-131

[2] S.L., Lin, J.C., 1985, Microwave-induced changes in nerve cells: effects of modulation and

temperature. Bioelectromagnetics no 6, 257-270

[3] King, N.W., Justesen, D.R., Clarke, R.L., 1971, Behavioral sensitivity to microwave irradiation.

Science no 172, 398-401

[3] Sajin Gheorghe, Gavriloaia Gheorghe, Absorbţia câmpului electromagnetic în zona capului

uman, Military Technical Academy Press House, Bucharest, 2002

[4] CEN01b European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization (CENELEC). Product

standard to demonstrate the compliance of mobile phones with the basic restrictions related to

human exposure to electromagnetic fields (300 MHz – 3 GHz). Brussel: CENELEC, 2001; (report

nr EN 50360: 2001E).

The process of metropolisation in Europe- an outcome of new economics?

Ileana Budişteanu Ph.D, Simona Bara Ph.D, Alexandra Antal – Research Center for

Building Architecture and Urban Planning - CDCAS;Address: Sos.Pantelimon 266, sector 2, Cod 021613

Phone: 021. 255.50.22; Fax: 031.405.58.40e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

Ustinia Rachita Ph.D, Universitatea HyperionAddress: Calea Călăraşilor nr. 169, sector 3, tel. 021.323.72.87


Abstract

Metropolitan regions (MR) play an increasing part in the development of Europe. They are hosts and driving forces of competitivity, gateways to knowledge, hubs of trans-European infrastructure. They are the backbone of development both within and outside the EU. The economy of metropolitan regions and the benefits of their activities are spreading out to smaller urban centres in each country.

Global competitivity requires an integrated approach of urban development, encompassing all relevant economic, social and environment issues. Over the last decades urban and regional economies witnessed dramatic changes extending their area of interest: macroeconomics opened up to space and territory and the “new economic geography” is impacting on the development of metropolitan regions.

There is an increasing need to analyze and assess the differentiated achievements of MRs when confronted with common challenges: managing economic change at national and global levels, access to innovation and knowledge, tackling social and cultural diversity and last but not least preserving cultural and natural heritage. These are the main strategic issues for the development of MRs.

A framework for the future development of MRs should be coagulated around a proper governance, involving all the relevant entities and benefit from the support of the civil society

Introduction

The process of metropolization plays an important part in the development of the European space. Metropolises have become the driving forces of growth and major focal points of innovation. The economy they create is spreading out to smaller urban centers of each country.

Metropolitan regions (MRs) of Europe are increasing in number. What are they? MR’s are areas of Europe’s territory including a number of municipalities and towns of various sizes, interconnected and interdependent. Their weight in Europe’s economy is significant and their place in the world economy induced changes in the international hierarchy of metropolises. Their development requires a redefinition of municipalities, both in terms of territorial dispersion and of territorial management.

MRs have numerous common strategic problems: how to manage economic change at national and global levels; how to cope with social and cultural diversity and the increasing need for infrastructure; and how to tackle the preservation of natural and cultural heritage.

Competitivity and prosperity of Europe’s MRs is essential for the implementation of the objectives of the European Convention (in terms of territorial cohesion), of the Lisbon Strategy (competition and sustainable development) and of the fourth Report of the Commission on social and economic cohesion.

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1. Towards a definition

Over the last fifty years, globalization has accelerated changes in Europe, and the consequences are more obvious in the gravity centers – that is, in the metropolitan regions1. MRs are the best prepared areas to react to contemporary challenges and to turn to account current opportunities.

The footprint of the metropolization process is more and more present in the structure and dynamics of Europe’s urban regions. Large European cities are nodes of a world-wide network of metropolises on the rise. Beside New York, Tokyo, London, Hong Kong, cities life Frankfurt, Paris, Brussels, Milan and Madrid are in the club. These cities pilot the world economy through their international financial and banking institutions, and the headquarters of the big multinationals.

MRs are major centers of research and innovation. They concentrate most of the value added activities, especially in business services. ICT (information and communication technologies) are crucial in this process. The cosmopolitan character of MRs has fuelled the development of the media industry – press, radio, TV, advertising.

In fact what are MRs?The European Economic and Social Commission gives the following definition: “a metropolitan

region is constituted of a central core – city or urban agglomeration – and a periphery of communes, with a major share of their active population working in the central core”.

MRs are not exclusively mono-centric and can be found not only in large countries: there are polycentric MRs (e.g. Ranstad with 7 million inhabitants, the Rhine-Ruhr region with 11 million inhabitants, etc) and there are MRs in smaller countries, like Centrope – Viena-Bratislava-Brno-Gyor).

2. The main challenges

Despite the differences in size, structure and national contexts, there is a long list of common issues needing to be addressed, of which let’s just quote a few:- the balance between urbanized and rural peripheries;- education and professional training;- research and innovation;- the clusters in competition on international markets;- attracting international investments;- multicultural societies and the challenges of poverty and exclusion;- job-creation and - last but not least the critical issue of governance.

The challenges and ambitions of MRs are rather similar:- lack of identity and inadequate governance hampers the development of MRs;- the success of MRs depends on the involvement of several levels of authorities – national, regional

and local; it implies that decentralized authorities need legitimacy to attract private and non-government initiatives;

- lack of comparable socio-economic and environment data thwarts monitoring the actual performance of MRs at European level.

3. What is needed?

MRs are confronted with numerous common strategic issues. Dealing in an integrated way with a wide range of economic, social and environment issues may be achieved by creating a common

1 The European Economic and Social Commission distinguishes between a metropolis “a big city or urban agglomeration” and “metropolitan region” – the latter constituted of a big city or a number of polycentric cities, surrounded by other cities and towns and rural areas. Consequently a metropolitan region covers a larger area than a metropolis.

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metropolitan framework, which would involve all the relevant and adequate factors, with the support of the civil society. Such a framework should fit into a medium- and long-term perspective, such as required by the strategic issues.

The metropolitan framework should have a spatial dimension with a view to: balancing urban renewal with urban sprawl; integrating land-uses with transport and infrastructure; maintaining the vitality of urban centers; ensuring economic competition by providing development opportunities; promoting social inclusion; assessing the environmental impact of development on the preservation of valuable cultural and natural heritage.

In short, what MRs need is:

a) A coherent definition is of crucial importance in an enlarged Europe. It should support a coherent context for free movement of labor, for a comprehensive assessment of performances – economic, social and environment ones, for the identification of emerging development areas.

b) A good definition should be followed by recognition, meaning in fact recognition of the current economic, social and environment conditions, as well as future perspectives.

c) Identity is related to the specificity and to the actual issues each MR is confronted with. There are several examples of this kind of approach, such as the new German MRs, the urban communities in France, the provisions of the Italian, British or Scottish legislation on MRs.

d) Marketing, influence and support are the key issues for MRs to enhancing competitivity, to grasp opportunities and select priorities.

4. The economy and the territory: from industrial organization to governance.

Over the last decades urban and regional economies have extended their field of interest, due to major changes in these domains. Macroeconomics opened up more and more to space and territory and a “new economic geography” was born. This new economic geography does not refer only to trade, externalities and industrial location. The new model takes shape around such major themes as economic integration and regional development. Research has concentrated on the analyses of competitive strategies and comparative advantages of countries; globalization of the economy; winner and loser regions and so on.

As against the classical logic of geography that dominated the first half of the 20th century, in the second half of the century a fracture intervened and a new logic was created, with new models and new methods of analysis, with external influences from other disciplines, especially economic and social.

The development and implementation of a metropolitan framework requires a proper mechanism of metropolitan governance. A good governance is the framework for decision making and for initiating public-interest actions, with the involvement of civil society.

Efficient governance mechanisms include a wide range of bodies and institutions: from elected or appointed authorities having comprehensive powers, and authorities with selective powers, to associations of interest with consulting role. The competences bestowed upon metropolitan bodies depend on the actual strategic issues which have been agreed on and which have to be dealt with in an efficient manner.

Beside proper competences, metropolitan governance should have the technical capability to make decisions in a constant flow and to monitor, protect, up-date and assure the follow-up of the metropolitan framework.

Good metropolitan governance needs data and information to assess performance and allow for international comparisons. So far, few studies and analyses have been made in this respect.

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As a conclusion it can be said that today’s metropolitan world bears the legacy of the urban past, of the big metropolises of the early times, especially those in Western Europe. Their problems and their strengths have influenced the concept and the image of the European metropolis, as compared to the American metropolitan world.

Today we can add a number of emerging MRs in smaller countries and in the new EU Member States. It is worth emphasizing their success in various domains – demography, social cohesion, governance and economic growth – registered in Northern Europe, from Dublin to Oslo and from Stockholm to Helsinki, not forgetting some Easter-European metropolises undergoing renewal.

Two aspects need to be stressed:- The development of European MRs may suggest that the special position of the so-called

international metropolises might dwindle as new MRs are being developed throughout Europe.- New economic differentiations might emerge, in MRs having responsible and efficient civic policies,

highly skilled labor force, access to ICT and other modern technologies or at least to one of the above advantages that would give new dynamics to metropolitan development.

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COMPLEXITY

IMAGINEA ÎN REVOLUŢIA AŞTEPTĂRILOR

Prof.univ.dr. Constantin POPESCU

Prof.univ.dr. Alexandru TAŞNADI

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti

În viziunea marilor spirite ale lumii noastre, revoluţia aşteptărilor este o transformare de

sens care apropie omul de înţelegerea complexităţii întregului viu din care face parte.

Sistemele vii de pe acest Pământ ca şi din microcosmosul în care ne aflăm nu sunt

ceea ce par a fi. Ele sunt imaginea lor formată de-a lungul timpului prin cunoaştere, înţelegere

şi credinţă.

Noua economie a schimbat radical spaţiul şi timpul afacerilor omeneşti. Aceşti factori de

natură locală, regională sau naţională s-au transformat în factori internaţionali-mondiali ce

constituie nucleul unei economii producătoare de imagini. Preocuparea specializată, tot mai esenţializată, ca imaginea lucrurilor să preceadă, să

însoţească şi să trăiască tot mai mult în mintea, inima şi sufletul oamenilor, constituie o funcţie

vitală a noii economii şi societăţi omeneşti bazate pe folosirea cunoaşterii ştiinţifice.

În jurul imaginii – ca funcţie organică a societăţii în care trăim, muncim şi iubim - se

aşează deopotrivă producătorii şi distribuitorii acestor realităţi spirituale, cei aflaţi mereu în

aşteptare a unor noi modalităţi de a-şi împlini viaţa .

Prin resursele pe care le antrenează – începând cu cele ştiinţifice, natural-materiale,

umane şi financiare - , prin formele specifice sub care apare – o ofertă de imagine -, prin

modul inedit de a se consuma, transformându-se prin intermediul fiecărui om în funcţie de

natura şi societatea din el, imaginea devine primul sector al cunoaşterii ştiinţifice în noua

economie şi al cincilea sector al economiei societăţii omeneşti. (vezi Anexele B1,....B5).

În bunurile care se numesc imagine se află încorporată pentru prima dată, atât

cunoştinţele celor care le produc, cât şi ale celor care le consumă!

Imaginea are aşadar două feţe, una pe care producătorul doreşte să o transmită cu

privire la ceva şi alta pe care consumatorul de imagine a reuşit să şi-o formeze. Ambele feţe ale imaginii, ca bun economic se realizează prin folosirea cunoaşterii ştiinţifice în cele mai

diverse forme de manifestare.

Termenii cheie: imagine (ca bun spiritual), noua economie, responsabilitate.

THE IMAGE IN THE REVOLUTION OF EXPECTATION

Professor PhD. Constantin POPESCU

Professor PhD. Alexandru TAŞNADI

The Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

From the point of view of great spirits of our world, the revolution of expectation is a

change of sense which bring closer the individual to the meaning of the whole living complex to

whom it belongs

The living systems from this Planet and also from the microcosms where we live in are

not what they seem to be. They are the image of their own made during the time through

knowledge, understand and faith.

The new economy changed thoroughly the space and time of human being businesses.

These factors of national regional or local nature, have changed into world-international factors

that represents the core of an economy making images.

The specialized preoccupation, more and more essential, as the image of things should

precede, follow and live more in mind, heart and the human’s spirit, are a vital function of a new

economy and human society based on the use of scientific knowledge.

Around the image - as an organic function of the society where we live in, work and love

– there are together the producers and the distributors of these spiritual reality, those who are

always in expectation for a new way to fulfill of their life.

Through resources that they rally on – beginning with financial, human, material -

natural, and scientific researches, natural –, through the specific shapes that it appears – an

offer of an image -, through the unpublished way to be consumed, changing itself through each

person in accordance with its nature and the society inside itself, the image becomes the first

sector of scientific knowledge in the new economy and the edify the sector of the economy of

human being society.

Inside the commodities that we name images there are incorporated both knowledge

of producers and of consumers, for the first time!

So, the image has both sides, one is the face that producer wants to show it and the

other is the face that the consumer made it for itself. Both sides of images, as economical

goods are made through scientific knowledge under different circumstances and shapes.

Key words: image (as a spiritual good), new economy, responsibility.

1. Comunicarea prin imagini emoţionale

Cea mai puternică şi eficace tehnică de comunicare învăţată şi utilizată de mari lideri ai

lumii (Churchill, Reagan, Twain etc.) este comunicarea prin imagini emoţionale. Aceasta este

una din formele de comunicare care se adresează simultan minţii (IQ) şi inimii (EQ) cuiva pentru

a transmite „înţelegere” şi „sentimente”.

Înţelegerea (capacitatea analitică) vine din partea stângă a creierului în timp ce emoţiile

(sentimentele) vin din cea dreaptă. Sunt numeroase argumente aduse de neuroştiinţă.

Imaginile emoţionale devin cel mai important instrument pe care îl putem folosi pentru

a desfăşura o comunicare eficientă şi convingătoare. (vezi fig. 1)

Fig. 1 De la o comunicare eficientă la o comunicare convingătoare

Prin urmare, înţelegerea şi simţirea sunt cele două elemente necesare pentru ca o

comunicare să fie eficientă şi două din cele trei care determină o comunicare convingătoare.Definiţie: o imagine emoţională este un cuvânt, o afirmaţie sau o povestire care

creează imediat o imagine în mintea ascultătorului sau cititorului. Această imagine:

- clarifică ceea ce încercaţi să spuneţi;

- comunică un sentiment pe care doriţi să-l transmiteţi ascultătorului.

Folosirea imaginilor emoţionale are câteva avantaje:

- Captează şi direcţionează atenţia persoanei cu care comunicăm;

- Au puterea de a influenţa şi schimba gândirea, şi viaţa unei persoane;

- Fixează cuvintele∗ în memoria persoanei;

- Însufleţesc comunicarea deoarece persoana începe să vizualizeze ceea ce aude;

- Creează oportunitatea unor relaţii interumane mai profunde;

Potrivit statisticilor, cuvintele au un rol de doar 7% în procesul comunicării.

Comunicare

Eficientă

Convingătoare Motivare

Înţelegere

Sentimente

Câştig saupierdere

Pentru a fi convingătoare comunicarea trebuie să ne motiveze să acţionăm. De

regulă, apelăm la doi dintre factorii motivaţionali cei mai puternici:

a) Dorinţa de câştig

b) Teama de pierdere

Prin urmare, dacă vrem să declanşăm motivaţia de a acţiona trebuie să apelăm

întotdeauna fie la dorinţa de a câştiga a cuiva, fie la teama sa de a pierde.

Pentru fiinţa umană de obicei:

Teama de a pierde > Dorinţa de a câştiga

Problema presupune tratarea „fricilor din noi”, a dezechilibrului dintre teamă (T) şi

dorinţă (D) şi atenuarea lui:

d = T – D

Trecerea la autoguvernare umană ne dă posibilitatea să rupem „cercul vicios” al fricii,

care transformă frica în îndoială, îndoiala în neîncredere şi neîncrederea din nou în frică.

Frică Îndoieli

Neîncredere

În tabelul 1 (Anexa A) punem în evidenţă elemente ce pot constitui câştig sau pierdere

într-un act motivaţional. ∗

2. Imaginea care se adresează viselorDin sistemul complex al imaginilor (vezi Anexa B5) ne vom opri asupra celei care se

adresează viselor. Potrivit lui Napoleon Hill: „ Toate realizările şi toate avuţiile de pe pământ îşi

au originea într-o idee sau într-un vis.”1

Visurile sunt imagini mentale care inspiră practic orice năzuinţă umană, de la visurile

vechilor greci privind construcţia democraţiei sau a vechilor egipteni referitoare la înălţarea

piramidelor până la visul Dvs. de a întemeia o mică companie, o fermă sau de a construi o

societate mai bună.

Înainte de toate, visurile ne reamintesc că realizările cele mai măreţe îşi au

întotdeauna punctul de plecare în cele mai îndrăzneţe visuri.O definiţie extraordinară a visului este următoarea: „Un vis este o schiţă pentru cele

mai mari realizări ale tale.”2

∗ Motivaţia este ceea ce vă determină să treceţi la acţiune sau să faceţi o alegere. Este cea care vă oferă un motiv. Acesta poate fi un instinct, o pasiune, o emoţie, un obicei, o stare sufletească, un impuls, o dorinţă sau o idee.1 Napoleon Hill – De la idee la bani, Editura Curtea veche, Bucureşti, 2007.2 Burke Hedges – Afirmă-te sub propria firmă, Editura Curtea Veche, Bucureşti, 2001.

Prin urmare, atunci când visaţi, emoţiile Dvs. îi dictează imaginaţiei să creeze o

imagine mentală a locului unde vreţi să ajungeţi. (SF). Procesul transformării visului în realitate

presupune parcurgerea mai multor stadii. (vezi fig. 2)

Un nou vis Un nou vis

Fig. 2 Stadiile parcurse de vis

VIS IMAGINEA VISULUI

So SF timp

Referindu-ne la aceste stadii să observăm că pentru transpunerea visurilor (So)

în realitate (SF) este necesar să le vizualizăm, adică să asociem acestora imaginea care trece

de la faza „neclar” la „clar”:

IDEE Imaginea neclară So

VIS Imagine clară SF

VIZUALIZAT

Fig. 3 De la confuzie la claritate

Procesul este asemănător reglării microscopului într-un laborator de biologie. La

început visul este o idee vagă – cu o imagine neclară. Apoi pe măsură ce ajustăm focarul în

mintea noastră apare o imagine clară, precisă. Prin urmare imaginea este în mintea Dvs. şi nu

în faţa ochilor. În acest stadiu vă transformaţi visul într-o imagine.Crearea unor imagini mentale a visurilor constituie o artă. Este arta de a vedea

„lucruri invizibile” de ceilalţi. După ce percepem imaginea mentală a visului acesta devine

atât de clar, atât de viu, încât nimeni şi nimic nu poate sta în calea realizării lui. Puteţi spune că

pur şi simplu v-aţi contopit cu visul. Deja vedeţi locul unde doriţi să ajungeţi iar această

imagine asociată visului nu este altceva decât un tablou dintr-o expoziţie a cărui vernisaj

urmează a, avea loc curând. După ce dobândiţi imaginea visului şi o „savuraţi” cu toate

simţurile voastre, acesta trebuie achiziţionat (investit în el). Asta înseamnă că trebuie plătit un

preţ. De regulă, oamenii care nu-şi realizează visurile se opresc la acest stadiu.3 Ei încep să

ocolească visul pe care Dumnezeu i l-a dat pentru a-şi atinge potenţialul.

3 John Maxwell – Realizează-te pe deplin, Editura Curtea veche, Bucureşti, 2002

IDEE

Imagineneclară

VIZUALIZARE

Imagineclară

ACHIZIŢIEE CĂUTARE REALIZARE

Rolul vizualizării, a creării imagini asociate pentru visurile noastre, este precizat şi în

modelul calitativ care descrie procesul realizării acestora. (vezi Fig. 4)

fig. 4 Procesul transformării visului

Filosofia noastră de viaţă (F) dobândită prin credinţă, tradiţii şi acumularea de

cunoştinţe generează gânduri noi, idei (i) care încep să „pâlpâie” în mintea noastră constituind

germenii visurilor (V).

Aceste visuri sunt vizualizate, transformate în imagini clare (I) ce se fixează pe cei doi

piloni de lansare: credinţa (CR) şi speranţa (SP). Credinţa este o stare de spirit care face inutil

cuvântul „imposibil”. Priviţi în jur şi veţi constata că cei care au reuşit cel mai bine sunt aceia

care au recunoscut şi şi-au utilizat capacitatea de a crede. Ea trebuie cultivată printr-o utilizare

permanentă, de zi cu zi.

Speranţa – este sentimentul pozitiv că urmează să se întâmple ceea ce doreşti

(realizarea visului – n.n.). Ea este aşteptarea, anticipare, optimism. Este baza împlinirii unui

lucru dorit.: visul la care am visat.

O persoană (visătorul) reacţionează în mod conştient faţă de un lucru pe care-l doreşte,

în care crede şi pe care-l poate obţine.

Pentru a declanşa procesul realizării visului se întocmeşte un plan (P) detaliat în care

se fixează obiectivele (oi), i = 1,n – care sunt: clare,concrete, scrise pe hârtie, măsurabile şi cu

limite de timp ca realizare. Apoi se proiectează paşii necesari atingerii obiectivelor (pj), j = 1,m şi

sarcinile (sk), k= 1,l care trebuie realizate zi de zi. Îndeplinirea zilnică a sarcinilor ne induce

încredere în forţele proprii, întărindu-ne credinţa că visul se va realiza. Pentru fiecare sarcină se

ataşează un timp ∆ tk dat care printr-un proces convergent ne duce la rezultatul (R) de care

depinde stilul Dvs. de viaţă (SV).

Să observăm că în modelul calitativ ilustrat în fig. 4, atitudinile (A) şi comportamentele

(C) sunt legate de gândirea pozitivă, de optimism, atitudine proactivă,credinţă şi speranţă.

VIAŢA UMANĂ CU

IMPERATIVELE EI

C

A

F

SVV

R

i

v I

CR

SP

P ∆ t koi i pj sk

Aspiraţiile visătorilor influenţează vieţilor celor care muncesc şi dau fiecăruia şanse de a

se ridica deasupra unei existenţe obişnuite, căutând ascensiunea şi nu circumferinţa existenţei.

Visurile lor sunt ca o lumină care arată calea pe care alţii să păşească. Având o imagine clară a

visului nostru şi deoarece suntem liberi să gândim, soarta viitorului este în mâinile noastre.

Viitorul nu este dat , viitorul fiecăruia dintre noi se află în curajul şi conştienţa de a ne asuma

responsabilităţile libertăţii de a visa şi transforma aceste certitudini ale speranţei în împliniri

umane.

Anexa A

Tabelul nr. 1

FACTORI MOTIVAŢIONALI

CÂŞTIG PIERDERE

• iubire

• siguranţă

• acceptare

• succes

• avere

• bani

• aspect fizic

• sănătate

• spiritualitate

• apropiere de

Dumnezeu

• apropiere de părinţi

• încredere

• sprijin

• imagine

• popularitate

• poziţie

• iubire

• persoană

• siguranţă

• acceptare

• succes

• bunuri materiale

• avere

• bani

• aspect fizic

• sănătate

• spiritualitate

• apropiere de Dumnezeu

• apropiere de şef

• încredere

• sprijin

• imagine

• popularitate

• poziţie

Imaginea, ca bun economic

Se poate stoca

Nu dispare prin consum

Non rivalitate în consum

Produsă de omBazată pe folosirea cunoaşterii

Apreciată de omBun imaterial

Limitare subiectivăImaginea

ANEXA B2

ANEXA B1

Imaginea, un nou sector economic

Inovează pentru cunoaştere

Foloseşte resurse limitate

Rămâne şi după dispariţia bunurilor

Utilitate la consumatoriUtilitate la producători

Consumatorii de imaginePrecede apariţia bunurilor

Bunuri economice imaterialeProducţia de imagine

Imaginea în funcţionarea organismului economic

Imaginea tehnologiei de aşteptare

Imaginea competiţiei de aşteptare

Imaginea costurilor de aşteptare

Imaginea proceselor şi transformărilor

Imaginea acoperirii cu resurse

Imaginea obţinerii de avantaje nete

Imaginea crearea de valoare adăugată

Imaginea concordanţei cu nevoia realăImperative ale vieţii

economice

ANEXA B3

Interacţiuni ale sectorului imagine

Transformări de înţelegere

SectorulQuaternar

(SQ)

Transformări de cunoaştere

Transformări deproductivitate

Sectorul primar(SP)

Transformări deeficienţă

Sector terţiar(ST)

Sectorul secundar(SS)

SectorulImagine

(SI)

ANEXA B4

Comunicare prin imagine

Imagini care se adresează speranţei

Imagini care se adresează credinţei

Imagini care se adresează dorinţei

Imagini care se adresează minţii

Imagini care se adresează viselor

Imagini care se adresează sufletului

Imagini care se adresează amintirilor

Imagini care se Adresează inimii

Nevoia de aşteptare

ANEXA B5

Ala Petrovici,

Ph.D. in Economics,

Traist Branch of JV”Estind”

Chisinau, Moldova

The use of data identification technologies in logistics

The wide implementation of logistics in economy is due to the increasing of calculus in material flow

management. Computer has become an important tool for all workers. Using of software allows to solve multiple

problems related to processing of information on a systemic base.

The data identification technologies consist in registration of facts and accumulation of data in a PC

recognized format. The bearers of information are storing the encoded data in the format recognized by a PC.

The reading equipment is used for transferring of data from the source (information bearers) to a PC.

A big amount of goods is being processed through each supply chain. Goods are transferred many times

between processing and warehousing facilities of each chain. The material flow is a continuous process, the

swiftness of which is determined by production capacity, shipping schedule, stock of goods, acceleration of sales

and consumption. For management of logistics system it is necessary to dispose of detailed information about

the range of goods, the incoming and outgoing material flows. This problem can be solved by realization of

logistic operations with the use of software, able to identify each item or unit of load. We are talking about a

bar-code technology or a magnetic card technology.

Unidimension codes like EAN, Code 39, Code 128, Codabar are wide-spread in logistics. By using

such codes it is possible to encode the lot number of goods, production date, expiry date. The European Article

Numbering (EAN system) is attributed by the EAN Association, which is responsible for the numbering system

for goods and data encoding. A digital code consisting of 13 digits is attributed at the moment of launching the

goods in production.

Nowadays hundreds of thousands of supermarkets worldwide are equipped with code-reading systems.

The use of automatic bar-code identification system in logistics allows to improve substantially the management

of material flows at all stages of logistic process, especially in production, warehousing and trade.

Increase precision determination of mobile phone in 112 urgency sistem

REUȚ FLORIN1

NICULESCU TUDOR2

Abstract :

The core of the Mobile Station Location problems is to identify and to tanslate these in a point

sistem in mobile communication sistems. This thesis focuses on different methods for measuring

distance between the Mobile Station and various Base Transceiver Stations, and calculating the MS

position from this information.

Introduction

From start is important to note that determination of mobile phone in 112 urgency system is a

large system and suppose no moddified hardware and software from handsets or provider network.

LBS (Location Based Services) use the information referred to mobile phone position

determination for helping peoples, when this information are putting on a vectorial map.

With the prolific growth of wireless and cellular telephony, there is an increased demand for

cellular network operators, government authorities, and 112 service providers to ascertain the location

of a mobile host. Hence, wireless or location tracking has generated a lot of research interest in recent

times.

1 INSTITUTUL DE TEHNOLOGII AVANSATE, [email protected] ACADEMIA TEHNICĂ MILITARĂ

Figure 1. Metode de localizare a telefoanelor mobile

Although the main focus of the research has been 112, yet there are other applications for

which the technology can be used. Some of them are:

o Location-sensitive billing

o Cellular phone fraud detection

o Value-added services e.g. information about the nearest gas station, hotels, dining etc.

o Criminal tracking

o Cellular system design and resource management – Flexibility of choosing a service provider

depending on current location of mobile host.

o Tracking of senior citizens / patients

o Fleet management and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

o Tourist services

o Mobile yellow pages

With the introduction of next-generation (3G and 4G) broadband, wireless products, there is a

world of opportunity for e-commerce companies that can benefit from the location information of

mobile hosts.

Location tracking technologies may be grouped as

♦ Handset-based technologies

♦ Network-based technologies

♦ Hybrid (handset and network) technologies

The underlying difference in these three approaches is self-explanatory. Let us now take a

look at some of the prevalent technologies (some of which have become ‘de facto’ industry standards)

in this area and deliberate on the issues associated with them. Some popular commercial products,

which (Time Difference of Arrival) have been deployed in the industry, are AOA (Angle of Arrival), TOA

(Time of Arrival) and TDOA [4].

Position determination for 112 urgency system

AOA (Angle of Arrival)The AOA method, also known as Direction of Arrival (DOA), is used widely in surveying, radar

tracking and vehicle navigation systems. The location of the desired target in two dimensions can be

found by the intersection of two lines of bearing, each formed by a radial from a base station to the

mobile target, figure 2. A single, measured angle forms a pair of lines of bearing. Practically highly

directional antennas are required, making AOA difficult at the mobile host.

AOA methods may use three base stations located at points and two measured angles to

determine the location of the mobile target at the point of intersection of two circles. This method,

known as resection, or triangulation, may be solved using trigonometry or analytical geometry or

through table lookup. At RF frequencies, AOA is usually determined at a base station by adjusting the

main lobe of an adaptive phased array antenna in the direction of the arriving mobile signal. Usually

two closely spaced antenna arrays are used to find the exact direction of the peak incoming energy to

provide higher-resolution measurements of AOA.

AOA is also applied to the problem of direction finding, where the target attempts to locate the

direction of the fixed sensors in order to find a position estimate, often employing high-resolution

spatial analysis techniques. The angle of arrival of a signal impinging on an array of antenna elements

is determined by a variety of techniques.

TOA (Time of Arrival)This method suppose that mobile phone to be synchronized with base station from arhitecture

system.

Because this method is like that TDOA, more details we offer last paragraphs.

TDOA (Time Difference of Arrival)Since electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light (3*108m/s), the distance from the

mobile host to the receiving base station is directly proportional to the propagation time. If the signal

propagates in time ti from the target transmitter to the ith fixed receiver, then the receiver lies at range

Ri=c*ti, where c is the speed of light in free space. Therefore, if a signal arrives at the base station 10

ms after it was transmitted, the mobile host is 3000 m from the base station. This corresponds to a

spherical locus, 3000 m in radius.

If we also measure the TOA at a second base station, we also obtain a spherical locus. Since the

intersection of two spheres is a circle, the region where the mobile host may be present is now a

circle.

Figure 2. AOA method and some applications

Figure 3. TOA method

Furthermore, we can see that the exact position of the mobile host can be ascertained by finding the

intersection of three spheres, that is, by measuring the TOA at three base stations.

Direct TOA measurements result in two problems.

1. TOA requires that all transmitters and receivers have precisely synchronized clocks.

For example, an imprecision of just 1 ms can cause a position location error of 300 m.

mDeroare 300103101 86 =•••= −

2. The transmitting signal must be labeled by a timestamp in order for the receiver to gauge

the distance traveled by the signal.

For these reasons, time difference of arrival (TDOA) is more practical for commercial

applications. In TDOA measurements, timestamps are not required for the transmitting signal. Also,

fixed location receivers only require precisely synchronized clocks. GPS clocks are usually available at

the base stations for precise timing requirements.

The idea behind TDOA is to determine the relative position of the mobile transmitter by examining the

difference in time at which the signal arrives at multiple base station receivers, rather than the absolute

arrival time. Therefore, each TDOA measurement determines that the transmitter must lie on a

hyperboloid with a constant range difference between the two receivers, figure 4.

Figure 4. TDOA solution determination position location

The equation of this hyperboloid is given as

222222, )()()()()()( zZyYxXzZyYxXR jjjiiiji −+−+−+−+−+−=

(1)

where, the coordinates ),,( iii ZYX and ),,( jjj ZYX represent the fixed receivers i and j , and make

up the unknown coordinate of the target mobile receiver. If the source and all receivers are coplanar, a

two dimensional source location can be estimated from the intersection of two or more independently

generated hyperboloids, generated from three or more TDOA measurements. Note that three-

dimensional source location can be ascertained by at least four independent TDOA measurements.

Since TDOA methods exploit relative time differences, the need for high resolution arises

primarily when closely spaced multiple sources give rise to multiple received signals that cannot be

separated by preprocessing. For instance, TDOAs of multiple signals, that are not separated by more

than the widths of their cross-correlation peaks, cannot be resolved by conventional TDOA methods.

To minimize this problem, the distance between platforms is typically made as large as practically

feasible so that the magnitudes of the TDOAs (which are proportional to the distance between

platforms) will be as large as possible. This minimizes the overlap of adjacent peaks, whose widths

are inversely proportional to signal bandwidth and not on the distance between platforms.

TDOA Algorithms

Position information from TDOA is usually gathered in two steps:

Accurate estimates for TDOA values must be computed from noisy signals

The noisy and possibly inconsistent TDOA estimates must be processed to determine the

position location estimate.

Estimation of TDOA – Generalized Cross Correlation Method

Equation (1) gives the hyperbolic range equations. Before solving (1), we need to estimate the

range differences, Rij, or equivalently the TDOA, ti-tj. This is usually done by the generalized cross-

correlation method.

Let us suppose that the transmitted signal is s(t). Then, the received signal at the ith receiver

is xi(t)=s(t-di)+ni(t), where di is the delay and ni(t) is an AWGN process. Similarly, the received signal at

the jth receiver is xj(t)=s(t-dj)+nj(t), where dj is the delay and nj(t) is an AWGN process. Now the

crosscorrelation between these two signals may be given as

∫ −=T

jixx dttxtxT

Rji

0, )()(1)( ττ

(2)

The receiving base stations must have a precise time reference and reference signals but no

condition is imposed on the signal transmitted by the mobile. The SNR can also be improved by

increasing the integration interval T. Also, note that the value of τ which maximizes the cross

correlation given by (2) is the maximum likelihood estimate of TDOA.

Equivalently, an estimated cross-spectral density function can be computed in the frequency

domain, and then the estimated cross-correlation function is obtained via an inverse Fourier

Transform. Frequency domain processing is often used because it facilitates the filtering out of

multipath components before cross-correlation computation. This is because overlapping cross-

correlation peaks due to multipath cannot be resolved. Even if distinct peaks can be resolved, a

method must be devised for selecting the correct peak value, such as choosing the largest or the first

peak. The use of cyclostationary signals to improve the resolution of the generalized cross-correlation

methods has been applied, which may improve performance in multipath environments.

A signal-selective TDOA estimation for passive location in highly corruptive environments is

presented. The proposed algorithms make use of the cyclostationary nature of signals and are based

on cross-correlation of frequency- and time-shifted measurements of data from multiple receivers. The

only requirement is that the signal of interest should have a known or measurable analog carrier

frequency or digital keying rate that is distinct from those of all interfering signals.

Solution of Hyperbolic Equations

Since we now have TDOA estimates, the position of the mobile transmitter is determined by

substituting the range difference estimates Ri,j into equation (1) and then solving the Cartesian

coordinates. But these equations are non-linear so the solution is non-trivial, especially when the

range estimates are noisy and inconsistent. The simplest method is to linearize the equations by

Taylor-series expansion, in which only the first two terms are retained. However, in some solutions this

method can result in significant position location errors due to geometric dilution of precision effects.

Geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) describes a case in which a relatively small ranging error can

result in a large position error because the mobile unit is located on a portion of the hyperbola far away

from both receivers. The numerical value of the GDOP is defined as the ratio of the root mean square

position error in the TDOA range. For a 2-D hyperbolic position location system, the GDOP is defined

as

2

22

R

yxGDOPσ

σσ +=

(3)

where, 2xσ and 2

yσ are the mean square position location errors in the x and y directions respectively,

and 2Rσ is the mean square TDOA ranging error. TDOA accuracy is greatest when the mobile unit lies

directly between the two receivers.

Chan has developed a robust method for finding a closed form solution, which is valid for an

arbitrary number of TDOA measurements from arbitrarily, distributed base stations. The solution is

valid for both close and distant sources and approaches optimum performance for the small noise

case. Chan’s method [1] performs significantly better than the spherical interpolation method; has

substantially lower computational complexity than the Taylor-series method and is able to tolerate a

higher noise threshold than the divide and conquer approach. This method has a moderate

computational complexity.

Performance of TDOA Position Location Systems

The most widely used method of assessing performance of position location techniques is the

meansquare position error parameter. GDOP and the Cramer-Rao lower bound are also important

accuracy measures. Any system design would tend to minimize the GDOP, which is defined as in

equation (3). In practice, the performance of a TDOA system is limited by accuracy of TDOA estimates

that are available and by accuracy of solution of non-linear hyperbolic ranging equations.

ConcluzionThe methods that are shown here suppose no hardware or software modifications in system

architecture or handsets.

The TDOA methods give the best precision in mobile station determination of position location

from TOA and AOA.

Bibliography[1] Chan Y., Ho K., “A Simple and Efficient Estimator for Hyperbolic Location”, September, 2003.

[2] GSM association,”Location Based Services, Permanent Reference Document”, Iun 2003.

[3] Koshima H., Hoshen J., “Location Tracking Techniques especially in a CDMA Environment”,

2000.

[4] Reuţ F., “Contribuţii privind creşterea preciziei în determinarea locaţiei unei staţii mobile”, Referat

de doctorat nr. 3, Academia Tehnică Militară, 2004.

„Reuţ Florin, ofiţer inginer, Institutul de Tehnologii Avansate, Bucureşti, Dinu Vintilă 7-9, tel. 0040 21

2036462, e-mail: [email protected] ”

„Tudor Niculescu, profesor doctor inginer, Academia Tehnică Militară, Bucureşti, B-dul George

Coşbuc 81-83, tel 0040 21 3354660, fax 0040 21 3354660 ”

THE “TIME” FACTOR

Drd. Cioban Costel-Ioan

Arhiepiscopia Sucevei şi Rădăuţilor Suceava

Str. Ion Vodă Viteazu nr.2 Suceava

Universitatea “Al. I. Cuza” Iaşi

Facultatea de Economie şi Administrarea Afacerilor

Şcoala Doctorală de Economie

[email protected]

[email protected]

AbstractBoth advanced countries or developing countries, part of the global economy, are heading

towards a crisis none of them needs, a crisis for which few political leaders are prepared and which

will establish the limits of future economic progress. The coming crisis is the direct result of the

“desynchronization effect”, an example of the irresponsible treatment of one of the most profound

principles of economic activity: time.

All countries, from all around the globe, each with its level of development, are striving,

more or less skillfully, to build advanced economies. However, the leaders of business, political, and

civil environments failed to understand one simple thing: an advanced economy requires an advanced

society, because each economy represents the product of the society which englobes it, and on

whose institutions and organization it depends.

If a country succeeds in accelerating its economic development, but leaves behind those

institutions which are crucial to a society’s welfare, it will eventually face a brake on its economy and a

limited potential of its wealth creation.

Human beings and human societies are open, disorderly, and imperfect systems. In our

societies and lives, the situations of chaos and chance alternate with and give birth to situations of

temporary stability.

We need both!

Key words: time

global economy

desynchronization effect

chaos and chance

In the feudal époque the state institutions broke the industrial progress and today the

industrial bureaucracy era brakes or slow down the movement to an advanced system based on

knowledge for the wealth and economical development of the states. These facts are available not

only for the poor countries, or the euphemistic so-called countries under way of development by the



international financial institutions (serve you right!), but also for the developed countries with powerful

economies.

If we refer to Romania, one of the biggest and well-known financial scandals is the F.N.I.

insolvency, having as a product the lack of coordination and settlement at the institutional level. The

failures, at the countries’ level and not only, can be unfurl other domains beside the economical one,

but in the end the impacts are everywhere. Recently, the non-synchronisation impact had a tragically

carriage due to the embarrassed and inadequate govern and of the state institutions’ reaction, which

have responsibilities in the crises moments related to the recent or several years ago floods.

The trials to modify, to optimise or replace a governmental agency from the last decade take

everywhere the resistance of the traditional beneficiaries and their alliances. If there is a problem the

nowadays resolution assumes a special committee foundation which deal with it. If the special

committee does not find the resolution the problem is hidden under a pile of papers and pertinent

justifications. This is the reason why so many of our maximum importance institutions have

dysfunctions, being non-synchronised with the increase speed imposed by the economy based on

knowledge.

The dream of a perfect synchronised society, similar with a clock mechanism, tormented

many “modern makers” which influenced the industrial époque. What seemed to be Taylor’s1 for

factories was as Leninism for the communist countries. The main objective was the creation of a state

and of a society that functioned as the efficiency of machinery. Each bureaucracy had to act as a

single human being, each individual had to move synchronised with the others.

The stability and the synchronisation offer the predictability scale used for every individual to

behave in his social group especially in the framework of economy. Without certain stability and a

temporal coordination, life reduces to the obedience for anarchy and chance. But what happen when

the instability and the non-synchronisation take the power?

In spite of the decades of human and internal freedom oppressions, the communist regime

had never been ended the industrialisation, as their founders promised. The synchronisation and the

efficacy referred to the communist party it had never materialised in the official economy, which in

certain sectors functioned only on paper due to the false reports. In 1989 the communist regime

collapsed and along with it the command economy. Everyone’s hopes aimed to a new economical

system for the present generations, the market economy, which would change the life and the living

conditions. Subsequently, not only the economy hastened to precipice but also the social order itself,

the oldest one and …communist, which depended on, it dissolved and with it any hope to have a

better life or future. It cannot talk about a performing economy… people wanted a situation where

things have worked and been predictable, after a person, as the Italian dictator Mussolini said: ”to

make the trains reach on time”. After 1989 the Romanians have been chosen between left and right

people and the result is that… sometimes not even the trains arrive on time. But the societies do not

need only trains to respect the schedule, but also institutions to function in a precise and efficient

rhythm. What is happening when the business run in such a haste then leave behind the other vital

institutions of the society? No one can reply coherently and argumentatively to this, to find a scientific

answer is not possible, because there aren’t sufficient data to sustain it. Although it is interesting to

see what happen with the important institutions of Romania, where the race for the 21st century must

be sustained and encouraged by these institutions and not stopped. Starting from here we can draw

an image based on deductions and also full of controversy, which unassuming the axiom, can be used

for the business medium, for the governmental planners and for all of us when trying to deal with the

quicker changes. Having Romania as a study object we cannot say that the implications of this attempt

to radiography the situation, it has not international implications. We are going to focus on a situation

influenced by the “time” factor, id est. the rhythm of the changing.

Let’s imagine a national road and on the side of it a police car with a prepared radar. On the

road there are two cars, each representing a Romanian important institution. Each car drives with a

correspondent speed as the changing rhythm of the institution. We will start the analyses with the

fastest vehicle.

One hundred forty km/h (a lot over the speed limitation,?!?!) is the speed of the car which

represents the institution with the higher average of change in nowadays Romania – the firm or the

industry. Because the speed is too high, even illegal, lots of changes are not longer permissible. But it

is in fact the engine of many transformations from the rest of society. The firms not only move very fast

but also forced the suppliers and distributors to transform at their turn, all being motivated by the

higher competition. As a result we can see how the firms rushed to modify the activity role, the

society’s positions, the actives, the products, the size, the technology, the labour force, the quality of

the labour force, the relations with the clients and the suppliers, the internal culture and any other thing

that can contribute to a “better movement” in the desired way. Each of these aspects is modified in

time and each having its own rhythm, which presupposed an enhanced attention from the firm. In the

business world the technology is the one that determine the speed and sometimes is too high, higher

than what the managers and employers can put up. At the same time the finance and the countable

systems make efforts to stay on the road.

With one hundred km/h, situated right behind the firm, there is a car completed with a

Romanian family, especially the youngest one. Hundreds of years ago, the Romanian typical

household was very big, gathering many generations. The significant changes appeared after 1989,

when it was increased the living and material condition of life, the possibility to work abroad, the desire

to live better became a major objective. Every youngster has desired to have not only his family but

also his place, a house. In the meanwhile the things are more objective due to the social conditions

but also the material ones.

The single parents, the unmarried couples, the re-married couples (once or twice) with

children from the anterior marriage, the geriatrics marriages and more recently the trans-sexual and

homosexual phenomena, appeared at once and became public. Thus, the familial system, one of the

social institutions with strong resistance at change, has transformed, and its change would not stop

here.

In the past, the familial unity had numerous important functions and acted as a production

team, at the field, at home, educating its children, taking care of the sick and the oldest ones from the

family. According as the country became industrialized, the housework moved in the factory. The

schools assumed the education; the medical care passed to the doctor’s and to the hospitals and

taking care of the oldest became a state obligation.

Today, while the firms externalise their services, the Romanian family is encouraged to

internalise it. We have maternal assistances, medical care at home, maternity leave for men;

companion for older or handicapped people, and the labour gradually moves back home full time or

part time. The same digital revolution that facilitates housework, it transfers home the shopping, the

stack exchange game, the electronic communication even with those who live nearby and many other

activities.

But the education remains in the classrooms, and parallel with the work it will migrate partially

back home or other places where the Internet connexions wireless or not and the mobile

communications are available.

The family format, the frequency of the divorce, the sexual activity, the relations between

generations, the love meetings pattern, the raise of the children, the care of the sick and older people,

and other dimensions of the family life are all changing very quickly. What will be in the future, it

probably amazed us.

Ninety km/h and the third position is occupied by the car in which the civil society travels

together as an exchange of things that commuted twenty years ago on an urban road at the end of the

schedule. The civil society resembles as a greenhouse in the blooming time with hundreds or

thousands cheering ONG’s, in a continual changing, for and against coalitions for the business world,

protecting the environment, the mother and the child, the most beautiful tree from the park, and the

most beautiful and wisest entertainer woman from the weather canal, professional groups, sports

federations, cheese makers associations, hostile activists of flocks moving, religious organisations,

fights organisations against the taxes, discriminating persons with different sexual orientation, butterfly

adoration associations and many others.

Lots of these types of groups have the change as a demand object regarding the

environment, the governmental settlements, the budget expenses, sharing the territory at the local

level from the administrative point of view, financing the medical research, researches regarding the

food standards, the human rights and the minority ones and many others. At the same time other

organisations have been opposed to certain changes and do the best to stumble it or at least to slow

down.

Using the trials, the buildings stake of the territorial governmental or central institutions and

many other means, some organisations have succeeded to take to a term their purposes. The “Rosia

Montana” Project was stopped or slowed down due to the ecologists deeds, although the sustainers of

the project have engaged in building a modern mine that will revive the local economy and will honour

the cultural patrimony, it will impose world standards on the environment and social protection.

Delaying a project it is very possible that the potential profits of the firm to tent to zero and then the

motivation disappears and in the end nothing will be done. Victory for those with the changing

“against” projects!

With sixty km/h but not constantly there we find the union car. In the last 18 years the unions

had balanced influences according to the problem but also to the right moment for solution. Success is

bigger on the eve of election or when the stability of the Govern or some subordinate institution

becomes fragile. If the school must start, or end, it is the moment for a small strike, started with an

advertisement for the sake of impression and if the Govern do not become sensitive in the right way,

we have a general strike. The proven inconsequence in following the initial purpose and the options

modification on the road, based on the conjuncture promises, done by the threaten ones, lead to

modifying the speed and sometime the movement direction. Nowadays the labour is characterised by

a huge mobility, taking place between two planes, in the car, in the hotels and restaurants. Instead of

staying in the same organisation year’s time, with the same colleagues, some individuals leave from a

team project to another one, loosing and gaining new colleagues or collaborators. Although the firms

are transforming with one hundred forty km/h, the unions remain connected to the way of organisation

and thinking borrowed from the similar European organisations but seldom appliance without thinking

or in accordance with the momentary interest of the union leaders. The ONG’s proliferation reflects the

quick unmasking of the interests and of living conditions of Romania and a not bright future for the

union’s fate. In order to stay active and with a role in the citadel life, the unions must re-evaluate their

activity and their manner to approach the people’s problems that they represent.

Forty km/h and a frequent change of the band in a manner that tangle the other cars, we find

out the Romanian educational system car. For each Govern changing or even the education minister it

has changed the vision of driving the car which transports the educational system. The passengers

enjoy these advantages, the students and the teachers; they must abide each experiment at least one

in four years, by a minister that comes with o proper vision regarding the educational system. The

schools are designated to a mass production. Working as some factories, bureaucratic administration,

protected by powerful unions and by politicians that depend on the teachers’ vote, the Romanian

schools constitutes a perfect reflection of the economy before 1989. The best thing we can say about

them is that they still produce “quality merchandise” even though not on a big percentage. Can a

system that role with 40 km/h to prepare students for jobs in firms that flies on the roads with 140

km/h?

Thirty km/h and a not homologous group of passengers populate the car that transported

many organizations with a continental or global responsibilities. Not every dysfunctional institution that

affects the national economy is in fact national. Every country’s economy is substantially influenced;

whether direct or indirect, by the global government represented by a multitude of intergovernmental

organisations or ONG’s such as: United States Organisation, International Monetary Fund, World

Trade Organisation, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and dozens of

other entities more or less visible that established rules for the cross-frontier activities. Some as,

Universal Mail Union had over 100 years old. Others appeared 88 years ago, in the Nation League

époque. Most of them, excepting World Trade Organisation and World Intellectual Property

Organisation, were created after the Second War World, more that half of century ago.

Presently, new forces try the suzerainty and national integrity, new players and new problems

come on the international stage but the structures and the bureaucracy policies of the ONG ‘s stay the

same, unchanged. The syntagm “unity through diversity” promoted by some ONG’s is sometimes

applied in a surprising manner. Through the forest of pertinent explanations appeared when we should

take controversy decisions, we can spot, for those who want to look, the real motivations of some

decision taken over a national interest.

”Through globalisation promoted already the religious syncretism, and the social problems

have a new appearance. The globalisation of the economy in the present society is rightful tied by the

globalisation exploit of the weak people by the stronger ones, form the economical point of view. At

turn the exploit globalisation leads to the weakness reaction. In this climate it appears the terrorism

globalisation that provokes the measurements and the safety mode globalisation. In this way is

promoted the political power globalisation, which subdues and promotes the world super power. This

super power itself takes care to promote its globalisation and to dictate to the other states, direct or

indirect, the policy that must be followed.” 2

At twenty km/h, fighting on the first line, the governmental bureaucracy and the subordinate

settlement agencies. Knowing how to neglect the critics and delaying the changing, the pyramidal

bureaucracy settles the daily deeds of the Governs all over the world, as well as in Romania. The

politicians’ know that is easier to found a new bureaucracy than to gave up an ancient one, no matter

how deficient or impropriate could be. Not only the fact that they are slowly or at all changing, some of

them, but they also slow down the business medium to the quickly modifications of the market. A very

well known example is the long time that a governmental administration needs to approve the

construction of a motorway. The time presented in such an approval can be compared with the

necessary time for constructing this objective. Everything is being done slowly, well and durable!

At ten km/h even the governmental bureaucracy if they look in the rear-view mirror, they can

spot a very far way car. This car is crawling, has a flat tyre and some steam under the hood, slowing

down all the traffic behind. Is there possible to maintain this pile of old steel with large amounts of

money, public money? Every year the answer is yes. It is about the Romanian political system,

Romanian Parliament. The political system was not conceived to deal with the remarkable complexity

and the haste rhythm of an economy based on knowledge. The parties and the elections come and

go. It appeared new ways of funds collecting for the electoral campaigns and the hoaxing of the

electorate. The political stability is very important from an economical and social point of view, but the

immobility is profound harmless. Since 90’s until today, the means of approaching the government act

has evolved, but regarding the base institutional reform we cannot see any improvement. For a while

we wave the flag of the uninominal vote. Each party waves the flag but none of them decided to hoist

it. Some of them put it on whilst the other climb and take it down. They have differences about its

height and the angle to hoist it. Even the electors have their own opinion. The desire is to change

everything…but not to modify anything!

At the end with a km/h, the column awarded if it changed the sense direction we can find the

car in which the justice is running. The “very much” speed is due to the fact that the “driver” is often

changed and sometimes without it. Institutional justice has two components: an organisational one

represented by the tribunals, bar associations, law universities and law firms and the other one

represented by the laws corpus, which are interpreted and defended by these organisations. Whilst

the law firms are rapidly changing, emerging, making advertise, specialising in new fields as debt

recovery, trying to extend to the national level and fighting to adapt at the new concurrencies realities,

the tribunals and the law universities from Romania remain in a dangerous stillness, and the rhythm

used by the system to operate is very slow, some cases of corruption or retrocede are appalling

crawling through the justice courts for years.

About the law corpus it can say that is “living” but in reality it can barely breathe. It modifies

daily while the Parliament adopts new laws and the tribunal adds new interpretations to the existent

laws. The ads increase the law volume without re-codify or restructured as a whole that parts that no

longer function. The law must slowly modify to offer certainty and predictability for the firms that act in

the economical media and not only. But what does it mean “slowly”?

Some essential laws, which affects direct the advanced economy and with direct implications

in the area of the author rights, of breveting the new discoveries, of intimacy… are “morally eroded”

shortly after their promotion. The knowledge economy appeared not because of this law but against it.

During this allegoric study we can observe the way in which these institutions are behaving,

how are they interact and it becomes clear that Romania does not have only an uncontrolled

acceleration of the changing, but also a significant non concordance between the requirements of the

new economy in a rapid flow and the slow institutional structure of the society. Is it possible that the

present economy with a rapid development to continue the progress under these conditions? Or is it

possible as the slowly institutions and with improper function of the society to stop in the end its

promotion?

The bureaucracy, the overwhelmed tribunals, the legislative myopia, the settlement climax

and the pathological stalemate attitude must take its tribute. In the end there must be someone to pay

for it. Few problems will be hard to be done as the systemic dis-functionality of many related

institutions but desynchronised. The acceleration will continue, the institutional crises will be in the

economical vanguard and they are not limited national but will cross abroad, and this transition will be

both ways. An internal crisis will induce the effects through the exterior as well as a difficult situation

from exterior can be catastrophic for the interior.

Maybe the proposed hierarchy is not the right one and it will be under the question mark, but

there is a certain thing: all of us, starting from the family level, firm, industry, national economy and

global system, are drawn into the most radical and rapid transformation from the history over the

bonds between the wealth creation and the way of using and applying the “time” factor.

Human beings and human societies are open, disorderly, and imperfect systems. In our

societies and lives, the situations of chaos and chance alternate with and give birth to situations of

temporary stability.

We need both!

1. Taylor’s represented the appliance of presupposed “scientific” method to obtain a

maximum efficacy of the workers. He was often criticised because the workers were

subdue to an inhuman labour rhythm and they were transformed in machineries

auxiliary. The name “Taylor” comes from Frederick Winslow Taylor (1856-1915).

Sometimes it is called “fords”, after Henry Ford.

2. Georgios MANTZARIDIS, Morala creştină, Editura Bizantină, Bucureşti, 2006, p.357

REFERENCES

1. BARI Ioan - Globalizare si probleme globale, Bucuresti, Editura Economică, 2001

2. PALAST Greg - The best democracy money can buy, New York, Penguin Group, 2004

3. MANTZARIDIS Georgios - Morala creştină, Editura Bizantină, Bucureşti, 2006

4. STIGLITZ Joseph E. – Globalization and its discontents, New York, W.W. Norton & Company,

Inc., 2003

5. TOFFLER Alvin, TOFFLER Heidi – Avuţia în mişcare, Editura Antet, 2006

6. Revista “Lumea”, nr. 12, 2007

7. www.emeraldinsight.com

8. www.weforum.org/en/index.htm

http://www.weforum.org/en/index.htm

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/

http://intranet.feaa.uaic.ro/intranet/bib/autor.asp?vautorid='6594'

1

Impact Analysis of Reducing Risks Concerning the Informatics Systems

AUTHORS: Floarea BAICU - Hyperion University Maria Alexandra BACHES - CONSIS PROIECT

Abstract In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewith are presented some examples concerning losses caused by excesses within informational systems and depicted from the study carried out by CSI.

1. Introduction. Problem statement The International Standard ISO/CEI 17799 [1] Informatics technology – Security techniques –

Code of practice for Informatics security management defines risk as the combination between

the probability of occurrence of certain event and its consequences. From the point of view of

informatics systems’ security, the risk represents the combination between the probability of

occurrence of a break in the security system of informatics systems and the impact on the

capacity of those systems for carrying out the designed security functions.

The risk can be considered like as a threat that could exploit the possible vulnerabilities of the

system, with a certain probability. It is an undesired and unpleasant event, which waits to occur,

but that due certain reasons may not appear or through certain methods may be avoided. In order

to prevent the occurrence of an undesired event generating considerable impact on the security of

informatics systems, security measures should be taken. These security measures are called

simply measures or controls. In this article we are not talking about the security measures that

can be adopted in order to reduce the risk level concerning the security.

Risk level is an arbitrary indicator, denoted L, which allows grouping certain risks into equivalency

classes. These classes include risks which are placed between two limit levels – acceptable and

unacceptable – conventionally established. It is determined through risk evaluations, on the basis

of an adequate combination between the occurrence probability of a security event and the

maxim consequences (impact) that the event may have upon the respective system.

The acceptable risk level is the risk level conventionally admitted by the organization

management, regarded as not causing undesirable impacts on its activity. This is determined by

methodic and specific evaluations.

The residual risk is considered to be the reminder after the risk treatment. As a general rule, the

residual risk may be regarded as risk on acceptable level.

2

Assuming the risk definition set forth upwards, this is a positive real number R which may be

represented by the area of a quadrangle surface, having as one side the Probability of occurrence

of certain event, noted with ,P and as the other side the consequences of that event occurrence,

respectively the Impact of the undesirable event, noted with ,I upon the security of the studied

organization. Mathematically speaking, the same area may be obtained through various

combinations between P and ,I of which the preferred one is quite the product between

probability and impact. There are a lot of Probability – Impact couples generating the same Risk

,R defining quadrangles of same area as illustrated in figure 1.

If the vertexes of such quadrangles, which are not on axes, are linked through a continuous line it

results a hyperbolic curve C , named the Curve of Risk [2]. This curve allows the differentiation

between the acceptable risk (Tolerable – T) and the unacceptable one (Non-Tolerable – NT).

Thus, the risk of occurrence of a certain event A, with high impact, with serious consequences but

low probability of occurrence, defined by coordinates placed below the represented acceptability

curve is considered acceptable, while the risk of event B, with less serious consequences but

high probability of occurrence, of which coordinates are placed upwards the curve, is considered

unacceptable.

Hyperbolic curve of risk based on couples (Probability, Impact) is illustrated in figure 1.

Figure 1. Graph representation for equivalency of Risks

defined by different Probability – Impact couples

RiskRiskfSecurity 1)( == (1)

and is presented in the table 1.

Security function is a function of a

system (equipment) by help of which

the risk is eliminated or reduced, or

is only drawn the attention of a risk

occurrence.

Security level is an indicator

showing in general the security

status of a system. It is determined

indirectly, by determining the risk

level and it is in inverse proportion to

it.

The following relation describes the

connection between the risk level

and the security level:

3

Concerning risk levels, in the present paper, due to practical reasons, for significations present in

column 2 we will use the abbreviations present in column 3 of table 1.

Table 1: Relation between the risk level and the security level

No. Risk Level Risk signification Notation Security

Level Security

signification 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 R1 Minimum, Non risk N S7 Excellent 2 R2 Very low VL S6 Very good 3 R3 Low L S5 Good 4 R4 Medium M S4 Acceptable 5 R5 High H S3 Low 6 R6 Very high VH S2 Very low 7 R7 Critical C S1 Insignificant

Risk criteria are reference terms against which the meaning of the risk (level) is determined.

There are several risk criteria categories, such as for example:

- specific consequences;

- costs or associate benefits;

- socio-economical aspects;

- the perception of interested parties;

- the occurrence frequency of security incidents;

- the cumulated effects of some incidents occurrence;

- uncertainty rate of determined risk level and of accepted trust level;

- the residual risk level admitted by each organization.

2. Economic improvement of the Security Level All risk assessment methods present some drawbacks. Basically these are as follows:

- the values utilized are estimative;

- calculations are based on statistic and probability analyses;

- the data must be periodically up-dated.

A reduced security level has as effect the increase of business risk, as presented in table 1

Ensuring a high level of security can affect the business with significant expenses that can be

utilized for other purposes, considered by many much more important.

Like in other activities here too must be found the optimum balance between the costs and

benefits. It may be considered that the law 20-80 (Pareto Diagram) can be applied also in this

case, with satisfactory results [2,3]. It is also considered that in most cases, 20% of the costs are

reflected in accomplishments of desired benefits in a percentage of 80% - in our case

minimization of the security costs. A maximum security S7 (respectively an increase of only 20%)

can be obtained with addition of extremely high expenses, practically with 80%. In figure 2 is

4

shown the graphic illustration of this law concerning relation costs-benefits in order to achieve

security of informatics systems.

Figure 2. Relationship costs - benefits.

Always implementation or tests and improvement the security generate costs concerning

equipments, personnel and time spent for implementing security, including checks or simulations

Those risk assessment are carried out mainly in the big companies and eventually in the medium-

size ones. In small organization there is no enough personnel trained to do that kind of analysis

and also there is no money to pay a specific company to do it. Taking all that into account, the

least they could do is to spend some money for a minimum set of security measures. It is well

known that managers do not invest in things that are not profitable at that moment and that, when

they do spend different amounts of money, those are under the imposed limit for that kind of

costs. In such case, there must be assured a security and its costs has to be under the line of a

certain amount of money.

In order to measure the security level within a company with concern to means utilized for

automatic data processing there can be utilized a financial Security Indicator, noted as fSI ,

which is defined by the following formula:

1– Ce

Cc PCeSI

n

iii

f

∑ ⋅+= (2)

where: Ce – the cost of calculation technique equipment and software used;

Pi – the weight of the measure agreed in the security system;

Cc – the cost of the controls for the equipment or software adopted.

The manager of the organization is

the person deciding how much is he

willing to pay for the security,

decision that is taken on the basis of

a technical-financial analysis.

Security is very difficult to quantify.

One can never state that within the

organization we have a certain level

of security. It only can be estimated

as an excellent, very good, good,

acceptable, low or insignificant level

of security. Even though, an

evaluation (at least financial) can be

made concerning the security level..

5

In the case in which there are no investments in equipment assuring security the value of this

indicator is zero.

When 1SI0 f ≤< – there is a minimum security level, but not inexistent.

When 1SIf > then we can say that the way in which it is assured the security is more expensive

than the equipment itself. In this case, the reasons are several, such as:

- the risks were not well evaluated and/or security measures were exaggerated;

- the equipment (computer) is not of quality and needs additional equipments;

- the up-dated equipment value is low as compared to the cost of security measures.

In the first case, not to lose information, there has been made an exaggeration about the security

measures – like financial investment or like number. In other words, the prices for those

investments are too expensive or it is invested more than it is needed.

The second case occurs when there are bought poorly-qualitative computers and later equipment

that may compensate this situation are required. This is the case of computers "no names" or

even if they have, they are old and no longer present safety under operation. It is quite often

encountered the situation when new bought computers get blocked in case of electric voltage

fluctuations.

The third case is encountered when the cost of equipment is up-dated to the new value. If the

computers as well as the control equipments were bought at close data and the cost of the

equipment as well as that of control measures are simultaneously up-dated, then the SIf does not

change so much.

When is desired an optimization formula for the software price, then we have to consider that the

license to be bought can be utilized for each personal computer (PC) to be installed on and that

only certain operating soft beneficiate of installation licenses only on the server serving these PC.

There will be taken into account the costs for all software installed on the respective computer,

up-date cost for each of it, possibility of a breakdown for the hard disk and need to reinstall the

program on that computer, cost of antivirus to be installed and its permanent updating. All these

special soft have various prices. For example a Windows XP 2003 license, type OEM (can be

installed only one time) costs about 150€ and a license that can be reinstalled, for the same

software product, exceeds 350€. There must be carried out an analysis that should consider the

probability of PC breakdown, due to several reasons, requiring reinstallation about 2 (two) times

within 3 (three) years – period of time agreed as moral wear of this software, after which a re-

installable license is purchased.

The price for an AutoCAD license exceeds 3500 € and it can be reinstalled on any computer,

subject that the program is not running on several computers simultaneously. The acquisition of

“subscription” option for the respective AutoCAD costs approximate 220 € per year and allows an

automatic up-date to the versions to be created.

6

There is also the opportunity to “rent” AutoCAD license, for a certain period (for example 3 years),

for 40-60 € per year for each PC, an offer that is starting to be successful.

All these economical analyses are part of the organization development strategy, representing an

independent and difficult actions.

3. Economically analysis of the impact reduction There are several methods for estimating the possible losses and the calculation of recovery

costs.

An already classical method for economical analysis of the threat impact mentioned in ISO/IEC

13335-3 Informatics technology- Guidelines for the management of IT security – Part 3:

Techniques for the management of IT security is called Analyzed Loss Expectancy – ALE. It is a

simple quantitative method, which allows estimation of the possible losses based on already

existent company records, kept by an expert, in the organization.

ALE depends on the value of the asset, on the possibility to loose its value, vulnerability to the

respective threat and threat occurrence frequency. This method is below briefly presented:

The following abbreviations are proposed:

AV = Asset Value – the costs needed for replacement and those caused by losses of any of the

organization assets (tangible and intangible);

PVL = Potential Value Loss – measures the impact on assets or quantifies the loss when the

event occurs, being expressed in percentage (%) against the asset value;

ARO = Analyzed Rate of Occurrence – frequency the event is expected to occurred. It is a

statistical estimation usually provided by some specialty institutions based on some data that it

already has.

ALE is calculated according to the formula:

ALE = AV x PVL x ARO (3)

There can be included another measure – recalculated ALE – representing the maximum value of

the security investments that we agree to spend for protection against threats.

Calculation example:

ARO (frequency) – has value 101

( the event can occur once every 10 years)

PVL (potential asset value loss) – 50%;

AV (asset value) is considered at 50000 €;

ALE = AV x PVL x ARO = 50000 x 0.50 x 0.1 = 2500 €

In other words, there is the possibility that due to not taking into account the risk associated to this

asset loss, the organization may loose every year 2500 €.

Sometimes another indicator is utilized – SOL (Single Occurrence Loss) – when the company is

interested on the value of the damage caused by a single occurrence of a threat in case of

extremely important assets and the second occurrence does no longer count. It is similar to ALE,

7

but the result of this analysis forms the response to the question “It is possible to assure or not” to continue the business in case of disaster.

Calculation example:

AV = 5 millions €;

PVL = 10%;

SOL – AV x PVL = 5 x 106 x 10-1 = 500000 €.

Both methods may serve as basis for impact assessment, when all assets, weak points, threats

and their occurrence frequencies have been identified. The impacts can be determined and

consequently grouped into logical structured groups.

There are several such structure modalities, the basic example having only with 2 impact levels:

“tolerable”(T) or “Non-Tolerable" (N).

The method recommended by ISO IEC TR 13335-3 is to complete a simple matrix, while

considering the possible loss value and the threat occurrence frequency. For both variables there

are decided 5 classes, the highest one being 4 as can be noticed in table 2.

Table 2: Impact assessment considering loss value and the threat occurrence frequency

Possible losses 0 1 2 3 4

Frequency

4 0 NT NT NT NT

3 T NT NT NT NT

2 T T NT NT NT

1 T T T NT NT

0 T T T T 0

In this case the impact can be associated with the risk.

4. A case study about the evolution of the impact Every year, Computer Security Institute (CSI) carries out different studies with the participation of

the San Francisco Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Computer Intrusion Squad.

These studies are used by every company to concentrate their efforts to counteract the most

frequent attacks. The survey results are based on the opinion and the responses of different

computer security practitioners in U.S. corporations, government agencies, financial institutions,

medical institutions and universities.

The CSI survey it is said to have been conducted anonymously as a way of enabling respondents

to speak freely about potentially serious and costly events that have occurred within their

networks over the past year. Organizations covered by the survey include many areas from both

the private and public sectors. The sectors with the largest number of responses came from the

8

financial sector (20 percent), followed by consulting and education (11 percent), informatics

technology (10 percent), and manufacturing (8 percent). The diversity of organizations responding

was also reflected in the 9 percent designated as “Other” [6].

Taking into account the information given by CSI, we made comparisons between the last two

years, 2006 and 2007 for distinguishing the losses suffered by the companies. The average

annual loss reported in 2007 survey shot up to $350424 from $168000 the previous year. The

result are presented in table 3.

Table 3: The evolution of the losses between 2006 and 2007

Type of abuse Value 2006

USD Value 2007

USD %

Financial Fraud 2556900.00 21124750.00 7.26 Virus 15691460.00 8391800.00 -0.47 System penetration by outsider 758000.00 6875000.00 8.07

Theft of confidential data not

mentioned 5685000.00

Laptop or mobile hardware theft 6642660.00 3881150.00 -0.42 Insider abuse of Net access or email 1849810.00 2889700.00 0.56 Denial of services 2922010.00 2888600.00 -0.01 Fishing 647510.00 2752000.00 3.25 Bots 923700.00 2869600.00 2.11 Theft of proprietary info from mobile device theft

6034000.00 2345000.00 -0.61

Theft of confidential data from mobile device theft

not mentioned

2203000.00

Sabotage of data or network 260000.00 1056000.00 3.06 Unauthorized access to informatics 10617000.00 1042700.00 -0.90 Web site defacement 162500.00 725000.00 3.46 Telecom fraud 1262410.00 651000.00 -0.48 Misuse of wireless network 269500.00 542850.00 1.01

Misuse of public application not

mentioned 251000.00

Instant messaging abuse 291510.00 200700.00 -0.31 Password sniffing 161210.00 168100.00 0.04

Blackmail not

mentioned 160000.00

Exploit of yours organization DNS server 90100.00 104500.00 0.16 Abuse of wireless network 469010.00 not mentioned Others 885000.00 123500.00 -0.86 Total 52494290.00 66930950.00 0.28

9

At this survey participated in the year 2006, 616 computer security practitioners and in 2007 -

494. The results of this survey indicate that cyber crime is a critical concern. Every organization is

vulnerable to numerous types of attack from many sources and the result of an intrusion can be

devastating in terms of lost assets and good will.

Insider abuse of network access or email edged out virus incidents as the most prevalent security

problem.

It is easily seen that the most important losses are because of the system penetration by the

outsiders and the financial fraud. The losses caused by those factors are very import – the sums

were raised with 8.07% and with 7.26%.

It is seen that the biggest loss in 2007 is due to financial fraud and not by viruses like in 2006. I

cannot say that these results can be expanded to all the companies because of the small number

of respondents but I can consider them important because the survey is sent to roughly the same

group each year.

About the costs of computer crime – there are some informatics about those cost and the

percentage of IT Budget Spent on Security. 61% said that their organizations allocated 5 % or

less of their overall IT budget to informatics security like it is seen in the figure 3:

Figure 3. The percentage of IT Budget Spent on Security

A quick comparison of the bars at 3 to 5 % level shows a significant uptick in 2007 and we must

notice that in 2006, 47 % said their organization allocated less than 3 % of the total IT Budget,

whereas this year only 35 % fell into that range.

10

The general picture is that security programs budgets are slightly up. Expressing the budget as a

percentage of the IT budgets means that the actual number of dollars spent depends on whether

the IT budget is growing or decreasing.

Conclusions Can say that security is improving within companies, but, the losses to cybercrime are bigger this

year than the last one.

The country’s economy relies on networked computer informatics systems for communications,

energy distribution, commerce, transportation and in other domains. It is known that cybercrime

and the attendant threat of identity theft reduce user and consumer confidence, reducing the

acceptance of e-commerce.

And so, computer security has moved to a position of prominence in most organization being a

critical activity that helps protecting the systems. But, we can say that if we want to have a certain

security level we must first know the threat we are bewaring of. And after that, when testing the

organization’s security, we must act like a real hacker because in that way we can discover all the

lacks in our system and then, periodically we must develop new vulnerability tests.

References 1. BS ISO/IEC 17799:2005: Informatics Technology – Security Techniques – Code of Practice for

Informatics Security Management.

2. BAICU Floarea, BAICU A.M., Audit and Security of Informatics Systems, Victor Publishing

House, Bucharest, 2006.

3. BAICU Floarea, BAICU M., Maintain Control under the Information Security Incidents - a

Priority of the Integrated Management System, Proc. of the 10th International Conference Quality

and Dependability, Mediarex 21 pg. 184-189, sept. 2006.

4. ISO/IEC TR 13335-3:1998: Informatics Technology - Guidelines for the Management of IT

Security – Part 3: Techniques for the Management of IT Security.

5. POPOVICIU N., BAICU Floarea, A New Approach for an Unitary Risk Theory, Proc. of

the WSEAS Int. Conf. on Signal Processing, Computaţional Geometry and Artificial Vision,

Athens, Grecia, aug. 2007, pg. 218-222;

6. CSI Survey 2007 – The 12th Annual Computer Crime and Security Survey -

http://www.gocsi.com/forms/csi_survey.jhtml;jsessionid=MUJGBU3ZGTNQWQSNDLRSKH0CJU

NN2JVN

The Semiophysical Communicational Model and Transdisciplinary Knowledge

Ioan G. Pop, University Emanuel Oradea, Departement of Management

[email protected], [email protected]

AbstractThe paper presents a transdisciplinary approach from a semiophysical perspective of the

knowledge process. The introduced communication process presents itself as an integrative

one of the known models, explaining the contextual character of knowledge process, with

aspects tied to the eficiency of a communication system and to the ethical-semanthic value of

the semiophysical products through communication.The type of the synergistic-significant

process in a transdisciplinary context of communication in the knowledge based society

explains the functional-informational integration at the level of structures, the logical-creative

signification and the ethical-moral valuing of the entire spectrum of knowledge, including the

spiritual dimension. Transdisciplinarity is presented as one of the essential conditions of

existence, the four pillars of transdisciplinarity, learning to know, learning to be, learning to live

with, and learning to be as human being in the postmodernism being the bigest challenge for

the mankind.

Key words: semiophysics, transdisciplinarity, synergy, ethico-semantic significance, contextual

communication, knowledge integration

1. INTRODUCTION

The most important models regarding knowledge considered in this paper are structured on

sequences which take into account different complementary conceptual dimensions, such as the

socio-cultural model PMS ( Primary Message System ) [1], the TOP Multiple Persepective Concept [2],

the Multy-Modal System Design [3] and Wuli-Shili-Renli Approach WSR [4].

The Socio-Cultural Model (PMS), approaches the major triad regarding the formal, informal

and techniqual learning types [1]. The formal learning process functions in two ways: the required

action and the correction of errors, while the informal learning presuposes the existence of models as

object of imitation. Technical learning implies the logical-creative analysis, presented in a coherent

form and the attainment of skills in practical activities. There is an intrication of the three learning

modes, one of them being dominant all the time.

The TOP Multiple Concept Perspective was formulated by Linstone [2] and it represents a

bridge over the cutoff between analysis and action, between the model and the real world and it

introduces a tridimensional perspective in the study of complex systems. Therefore, T represents the

technical perspective, O represents the organisational perspective, and P represents the individual,

personal perspective. These perspectives determine our way of looking at the shape we research,

with the help of specific filters at the level of knowledge. The three perspectives, T, O and P present



diferent characteristics and properties, each one of them regarding complementary aspects towards

the other, these do not represent models, but sets, with underlined presupositions, axioms and

paradigms.

The Multi Modal Systems Design (MMD) was formulated by de Raadt [3] and it represents

an alternative approach to the social system project, which has to do with the idea of “multi modal

cultural ecology” in concrete reality, in human life and in knowledge. Multi modal thinking presents

itself as a theoretical support which joins together technology and humanity. The modal levels allow

the representation of concepts such as homomorfism, expansion and transduction. MMD is formulated

as a methodology which must assure that all modalities of human life, from the hard to the soft are

represented and integrated in the social system project.

WSR (Wuli-Shili-Renli) is a systemic approach developed on confucianist philosophy and the

chinese practice system, as a combination of “Li” concepts from neo-confucianism (essences,

structures, principles and thinking) with Ge Wu Qiong Li teachings (the investigation of things for their

respective extreme Li), as well as the success of contemporary scientifical systems, in order to equip

the practitioners with the guidelines of the operational systems, to implement the results of systemic

research with the practice in oriental context [4]. In WSR, the Wu-li sequence refers to the knowledge

of objective phenomenons, Shi-li implies the subjective modes in seeing things, while Ren-li regards

the interhuman relationships (objective-Wu, subjective-Shi, relational-Ren). There are different li’s

which govern different phenomenons, the implication (information, modeling and action) and the

relations, none of the aspects can be replaced by the other, they are all complementary.

2. THE SEMIOPHYSICAL MODEL OF CONTEXTUAL SYNERGISTIC COMMUNICATIONAL KNOWLEDGE

Starting from the consideration that the presented models approach knowledge from

conceptual perspectives structured on levels of reality which explain the process of knowledge in a

limited way [5], we introduced the Semio-Physical Model of functional-informational integrative

process with the spiritual dimension of knowledge in an informational society as having the capacity to

explain in an integrative way the process of knowledge in a transdisciplinary context [6]. The model

presented as a systemic, modular pespective of the knowledge process through communication takes

into account the existence of the functional structures (the phenophysics with flows, stocks,

production, losses and externalization of the information, which reaches the receiver through the

transmission channel in a specific processing mode) [7,8], logical-creative significance of the

communication process, where the data and the information of a message determines a certain

significance at the receiver’s level, aspect studied by semiotics, through semiosys (semiotics – the

semiosycal dimension of knowledge) [9,10]. The ethico-moral aspects in the communication processs

become important in the valuing context of the message at receiver level, in its psycho-socio-cultural

and spiritual impact. The levels, the ranks and the authority connections in the knowledge process

become very important by what they presuppose, the authoritativ principle, responsibility, credibility

and deference, more precisely the deferencial difference of the authority levels and ranks of the two

communicators, the transmitter and the receiver, the semiophysical model (ethics – the ethical - moral

perspective of communication) [6,14]. Therefore, the physical dimension (P) assures the objective,

functional side of the process, the semiotical dimension (S) represents the perspective of producing

and signifying of signs, through natural, representational and comunicational semiosys [10], while the

ethico-moral dimension (E) implies the authority levels in the processs of valuing through

communication [11,12]. The model is characterised by the efficient functioning structure (laboratories,

human-machine learning systems, think-tank informal structures, ice-breaking groups, etc.) and

through the axiological coeficient of ethical-semanthic valuing of semantic products in knowledge

processes. From the perspective of the operational mode, through interrogation, the answers to the

questions allows the identification of the components within the communication process. Who, what,

how, why and to whom are key questions, which, read in this order make up the semiophysical

synergistic communicational model, the advancement direction being given by the orientation towards

the receiver (to whom), the transmitter determines the identity of the authority involved in the

procesessing and the choice of the message content, as well as of the code, the channel and

especially the context. The model is sequential, referential and integrative, the contextual message

assuring the connection between the transmitter and the receiver, by facilitating the transmission of

significant information from an ethico-semanthical point of view. The common space of the three

spheres of authority [6], leadership (guidance), education (equiping) and relationship (communion,

fellowship) creates that what we call the central space in the communication process, where the three

components work synergically (1+1>2) in the sense of logico-creative significance in the ethical

context of authority, through the communication process (see model of transdisciplinarity knowledge,

fig.1 ) [13]. The power levels (authority), with its corresponding ranks of authority in the space of the

three spheres of authority are: the level of designated power (assumed, imposed, atributed), the

coercitive-rewarding power level (punishment and repayment), at the leadership sphere; the

informational and expertise power level (wisdom and ability), the referential power level (the model for

apprenticeship) at the educational sphere and, the connective power level (establishing, maintaining

and valuing relations) at the relational sphere level [15].

Starting from the known models in communication [14], it is submitted a synergistic contextual

communicational model, where the transmitter (individual, institution, group), having a certain rank of

authority, given by the levels of power from the spheres of leadership, education and relationship

transmits a message, in a given context, with an adequate code, through a channel with a high as

possible signal-noise proportion, to a receptor (individual, institution, group), motivated to accept the

message [6]. The importance of the transmitter in the communication process is major, due to the fact

that it administrates the comunicational system, with abilities in choosing the information, the code, the

channel and also the context, with a solid conviction to fulfill the conditions of a communication, in

which the specific required paradigm (common repertoir, avoiding to miss the meaning, and the lack of

conflictual comunicational remanence, or informational losses) is realised in a quantitative as well as in

a qualitative way. The common space realized by intersection of the influence spaces of the three

spheres of authority, leadership, education, relationship, allows the identification of a synergistic

communicational space, in which an efficient and valuable communication takes place, through a

functional-integrative structuring of the knowledge process, and through the identification of the

principles and specific rules which govern the knowledge process through communication. Therefore,

at the transmitter level one can identify: the authoritative-expresive principle with the rules of

accountability, credibility and deference (conviction, Pathos); the participative-conative principle with

the receptivity rules (atention), disponibility (acceptance, assumption), implication (action), for the

receptor (motivation, Ethos) and cooperative-referential principle for the contextual message, with the

rule of qualitative and quantitative message, the rule of contextual (referential) relevance for the

context and manner rule, for the “packing”–code and transmision- channel of the message (Logos),

like in fig.2 [14]. The semiophysical model submitted proves itself to be one that integrates the most

important existing models, as ECR Shannon-Weaver model, [15], a digital type of communicational

system, interested less with matters of communicational significance, as well as of the optimal

functioning of the communication system (code, channel), and EMR, with diferent alternative models,

which take into account the existence of a specialization function for the six components of the

communication process, as the expressive function for transmitter-source, E-S; the conative function

for receptor R; the poetic function for message M; the context Ct with a referential function; the

channel Cn, with the fatique function and the code Cd with metalinguistic function, explaining, in the

same time, the “hard” component, the technique, and the “soft”, the significance of the knowledge

process, as well as the aspects related to the eficiency of such a system and the ethical-semantic

value of the knowledge process through communication [15]. The model proposed emphasises

efficient functioning structures (laboratories, human-machine learning systems, think-tank informal

structures, ice-breaking groups, etc.) and an ethical-semanthic valuing coefficient of semantic products

in knowledge processess [6]. The semiophysical system allows, through its three components,

phenophysics (phenomenological physics, with structure functionality) [9], semiotics (with the logical-

creative significance of the message in a given context) [10,16] and ethics (with the perspective of

authorithy in leadership, learning and relations) [11,12], a structural-functional approach of

semiophysical system of knowledge characterized through the three specific variables, space, time

and action through which we can define the function of the system with the spatial-participative

sequence (SSP), configured by the shape, dimensions and proximity in which the communicational

agents are to be found in a specific distribution and relationship; the temporal-connective sequence

(STC), has to do the syncron-diacronical relation in the development of the communicational process,

the cronological, physical diacronic time (kronos), marked by syncronical events in significance

(kairos). The spatial-participative proximity determines interactions which can be described in time

through the action-interactive sequence (SAI) [14] . The model is integrative, the contextual message

assuring the connection between the transmitter and the receiver, by facilitating the transmission of

significant information from an ethical and semanthical point of view [14]. In this framework of

synergistic transdisciplinary communication process, described by the semiophysical system, it is

possible to identify the four kind of learning and living skills which are very important for

transdisciplinary knowledge, learning to know ( what, how and why) in a new scientific creative

synergistic spirit, learning by doing to acquire knowledge and skills through the new transdisciplinary

Message (what)

Transmitter (who)---------------------------------------------------------------Receiver (to whom)

Code – Channel (how), Context (why)

The authoritativ-expressive

principle,Pathos,with rules of

-responsability

-credibility

-deference

The cooperative-referential

principle,Logos, with rules of

-quantity and quality of the

message

-contextual relevance of the

message

-manner of transmission

The participative-conative

principle, Ethos, with ules of

-receptivity (choice)

-availability (accountability)

-involvement (action)

Fig. 1 –The semiophysical model of contextual synergistical communication [14]

educational paragigm, learning to live together with, in an open unity and complex plurality, with

respect to the community norms, and learning to be, for questioning in the synergistical scientific spirit,

for a permanent apprenticeship in which teachers and students are learning together, to know that the

shaping of a person inevitably passes through a trans-personal spiritual dimension [16,17], put in

diferent frameworks, as how to learn to do while learning to know, and how to learn to be while

learning to live together with, or learning lo learn to know by doing as an extrinsec approach, and learning to understand to be by living with other people as an intrinsec approach of

integrative knowledge [14].

3.A TRANSDISCIPLINARY APPROACH OF SEMIOPHYSICAL CONTEXTUAL KNOWLEDGE

As we saw, semiophysics can be considered as a synergistic combination between

phenophysics, semiotics and ethics, a need for the integrating research as well as for the educational

and communicational programmes becoming an imperative of informational society. The third wave of

knowledge integration, determines the moving of an increasingly large part of the population towards

information manipulation activities. As the needs of humanity seem to be satisfied, there is an increase

in actions which seek the fullfiment of spiritual needs, through knowledge, which, in turn, creates a

powerfully informatized based society [18]. Based on information, semiophysics is not only the best

suited systemic analysis in contextual synergistic communication for a higly advanced informational

society with the mattergical incorporation of the inform-action [19], but also as a new ethico-

semantical paradigm by its thematical, exemplifying, interactive, functional aspect (a new

epistemology), as a socio-interactive sistem of thinking, of living and acting ( another ontology) and a

reflexive way of comunication (the creative logic of the included third) [5]. In the knowledge based

society, information being flexible, unlimited, infinitely extensible, can assure the fulfillment of spiritual

needs, at the same time with the material ones. Semiophysics could lead, in a short amount of time, to

the development of new communicational principles through the development of systemic thinking, the

development of skills for team work, where thinking and action flexibility, become esential qualities for

the researcher. A postmodern contextual communication can be finalized only by a team of specialists

from different fields who must learn to communicate in a new manner, which means, on one hand, that

each of the members must think synergically rather than sequencially, and on the other hand, the

researcher must study thoroughly his own field of research.There is an obvious difference between the

traditional, fragmented, sequencial and the new semiophysical integrative contextual approach. The

principles of systemic synergistical contextual communication can be applied succesfully to all

communication levels, creating the neccesary environment for the possibility to switch from a unilateral

thinking, based on a single discipline, to a flexible, global thinking, which assures an integrating

approach to the integrative knowledge process, with a methodology to achieve an optimal

communicational skills, to put in practice the ideas and techniques developed during a

transdisciplinary process to raise synergy and provide a catalytic effect for finding new and simpler

solutions to traditionally complex problems, especially in conflicts [5,6]. This approach is a top-down

evaluation of the explicit knowledge perspective. On the other hand there is a synergy in the

integration of the information achieved by implicit knowledge, where with a correct combination of

parameters it is possible to integrate this kind of knowledge in a final semiophysical product. This is

one of the possible bottom-up approach of semiophysical knowledge process [14]. In the knowledge

based-society defined by explosion of information and changes unprecedented in history, the option

for the transdisciplinary approach in systemic communication represents a necessity and a guarantee

of future success at the same time with a new attitude, an active participation, flexibility. an eternal

desire for unity of knowledge, the ideal frame for the manifestation of this unity in knowledge being the

university. In order to objectify transdisciplinarity it is not necessary to create new study matters, and

new universities, all it could be done is a different approach as natural manner of interaction with

contemporary ideas and information [17]. The way the semiophysics works as a trandisciplinary

paradigm in communication and conflict solving in its specific way is explained through the sequences

presented in fig. 2 [14,18], such as follows. Disciplinary approach, specific separation (1) between

phenophysics, semiotics and ethics, works distinctly, in an attractive context, with no contact. In the

codisciplinary approach (2), with statistical virtual connection, the separated disciplines are arranged

in a distinct configuration of proximity where there is no physical contact but where specific virtual

connections can nevertheless be identified. The disciplinary dynamics generates temporary contents

and methods in a codisciplinary configuration. multidisciplinary approach, cooperation through contact (3) is characterized by different kinds of contacts between the disciplines, thus a closed

vacuum space emerges with radial mutual interactive flows through each contact point. In

crossdisciplinary approach (4) there is combination by overlapping, with common creative-

innovative spaces, with transfer of methods and “prepared” contents. Lateral circular flows determine

the emergence of a new systemic configuration in a paradigmatic system, a reflexive communicational

language and a socio-interactive reorganization of the contents and methods. Circular flows are

prevalent, consequently the very closed regions are growing from the initial points of contact to space

filled with the separated elements. The last level is transdisciplinary approach, by synergistic synthesis (5), where a new transdisciplinary functional structure is emerging in knowledge system likeHard core Fluid belt

space

Difuse zone

2. 3. 4.

1. 5.

Fig 2. The new perspective on paradigmatic transdisciplinarity in semiophysics [14, 18]

a central hard core. The flexible and deformable boundaries with the “fluid belt” capture from the

diffuse outer shell the innovative ideas, new research themes and new courses in synergistic specific

configurations and programs. The central zone is consisting as a paradigmatic (educational), socio-

interactive (existential) and reflexive (communicational) transdisciplinary system. If in the

crossdisciplinary stage circular flows of knowledge are prevalent, in the transdisciplinary context a

radial anisothropy of atractive-relpulsive combining flows, with a hierarchical-heterarchical rebuildind

of the contents emerges (could be just emerging new transdisciplinary thematic disciplines as

econophysics, psychophysics, sociophysics, neurophysics, etc.). Transdisciplinarity as understanding

(top-down approach) and practicing it (bottom-up approach) is based on an active process, occurring

either intentionally or spontaneously, that enables to controle information, thus to question, integrate,

reconfigure, adapt or reject it. The fundamental characteristics of the transciplinary approach and

attitude is represented by rigour in argumentation, as barrier in the way of potential deviations, open-

mindedness in terms of accepting the unknown, the unanticipated and the unpredictable, and

tolerance in acknowledging the right to sustain ideas and truths contradictory to our own beliefs [16]. In

the framework of transdisciplinary approach on communication it is very important the formulation and

affirmation of original opinions, the rational choice of an option among several, the problem resolution/

solving, the responsible debate of ideas [17].

4. CONCLUSIONS The research presented here is an integrative approach of knowledge through the Semio-

Physical Model as a synergistical contextual communication from the perspective of the

transdisciplinary way of thinking, living and acting, a challenge and an answer, the common effort of

the higher education institutions, which can become the answer provided by science and by

contemporary needs in education for the issues of globalisation, internationalisation and planetary

integration. Human knowledge as entity is transdisciplinary, intelligence being transdisciplinary as well,

as one of the essential conditions of existence. Learning lo learn to know by doing as an extrinsec

approach, and learning to understand to be by living with other people as an intrinsec approach of

integrative knowledge, as human being in the postmodernism, is a big challenge for the mankind as a

whole and for men as individuals too. Communicating in the semiophysical synergistical contextual

way should become the aim of the knowledge based society, as functional-informational integrative

structures with spiritual dimension.

References [1]. Hall, E.T., The Silent Language, Fawcett Publications, Inc,Greenwich, 1959.

[2]. de Raadt, J. D. R., Information and Managerial Wisdom, Paperback - Jan 1991.

[3] Linstone, H. A., Multiple Perspectives for Decision Making: Bridging the Gap Between Analysis

and Action, Hardcover - Nov 1984.

[4]. Gu, Jifa and Zhu , Zhichang, Knowing Wuli, Sensing Shili, Caring for Renli:Methodology of the

WSR Approach, School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology,

1-1 Asahhidai, Tatsunokuchi-cho Nomi-gun,Ishikawa, 923-1292, Japan, Centre for Systems Studies,

Business School, University of Hull, UK.

[5] Nicolescu, B. La Transdisciplinarité, Rocher, Paris, 1996 ( English translation : Transdisciplinarity,

Watersign Press, Lexington, USA, to be published).

[6]. Pop, I.G., Semiophysics and knowledge, research project, unpublished, Babes Bolyai University

Cluj-N, 2006.

[7]. Thom, R. Semio Physics: A Sketch. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc. 1990

[8]. Arecchi, F.F.., Complexity and emergence of meaning, toward a semiophysics, Arcidosso, 2001.

[9]. McCloskey, M. "Intuitive Physics", Scientific American, 248(4), 122-130, 1983.

[10]. Sebeok, Th.A. Signs: An introduction to semiotics, University of toronto Press, 2001 ( roumanian

translation, Humanitas 2002).

[11] Adeney, B., Strange Virtutes: Ethics in a Multicultural World. Downers Grove, III.:

InterVarsity Press, 1995.

[12] Minati, G., The inter University Center E.Co.N.A. at the University of La Sapienza, Italy, Ethics as

Emergent Property of the Behavior of Living Systems,1998.

[13]. Haken, H., Synergetics, an introduction, 3rd edition, Berlin Springer Verlag, 1983.

[14]. Pop, I.G., Fundamentals of Semiophysics, Emanuel Univ.Press, 2008 (in press)

[15]. Fiske J.; Introduction to Communication Studies, Routledge, London-New York, 1990

( roumanian translation, Polirom 2003).

[16]. Berte, M. The Recovery of the Transdisciplinary Perspective in Post-Modern Universities,

Metanexus Institute Annual Conference, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA, 2-6 iunie

2007

[17].*** Learning for Tomorrow's World: First Results from PISA 2003, Paris, OECD 2004

[18]. Pop, I. G., Maties, V., A Transdisciplinary Approach to Knowledge in Mechatronical

Education, 7th France-Japan and 5th Europe-Asia Mechatronics Congress, 21-23 may 2008.

[19]. W. Gitt, In the Beginning Was Information: A Scientist Explains the Incredible Design in Nature,

Paperback - Mar 15, 2006.

[20]..*** International Congress Which University for Tomorrow ? Towards a

Transdisciplinary Evolution of the University, Locarno, Switzerland, April 30 - May 2, 1997.

THE IMPACT OF CREATIVITY MANAGEMENT ON

ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCES

Drd. Ana-Maria Grigore

Academia de Studii Economice Bucuresti

ABSTRACT

Inserted in the context of “The New Economy” the mission of this paper is to investigate how

organizational creativity is managed.

Innovation and creativity is the vital key for being successful in a rapidly changing environment.

It causes development of new technologies, products, and managerial practices, thus allowing the

company to attain a leading position in a particular niche and/or maintain competitive advantages over

other companies.

In the New Economy or Knowledge Economy, innovation is becoming more and more the

weapon for enterprises to increase their organizational performances, and make their way into the

extremely competitive market. Companies have to become more flexible, adaptable and innovation

intensive - creativity must be seen as being a vital part of a process. Thus funding Research &

Development activities has become an important issue in the firm’s budget.

The paper is based not only on my personal research, but also on a real study case about one

of the biggest Portuguese companies- EFACEC.

The first section will include some theoretical aspects about managing creativity and its impact

on organizational performance; how some experts define creativity and what factors and practices

stimulate and enhance creativity. I will then give a brief description of the EFAinova project (part of the

EFACEC creativity and innovation system) which occurred in 2003 and was a sort of turning point for

the organization in regards to its management of creativity. The EFAinova project introduced a new

methodology regarding creativity and innovation to be applied in the organization.

I will continue my paper with the case study sections that resulted after conducted empirical

research in EFACEC. I divided this part into three sub-sections: the Workshops Strategy- how they

are organized and who participates; the innovation culture- information about the innovation culture

and the main characteristics of a creative person; and the Innovation Cabinet- how it runs, its functions

and purpose.

I will conclude the paper with my own theory about creativity and a few discussion points about

the findings at EFACEC.

1

KEY WORDS: Innovation, Knowledge, Organizational Learning, Creativity

INTRODUCTION

In today’s modern markets, manufacturing companies face severe competition from numerous

local and foreign firms because of globalization processes. Thus rivalry of the particular company is

tightly dependent on the competitive advantages of the firm. According to Wheelihan K, innovation and

creativity is the vital key for being successful in a rapidly changing environment. It causes

development of new technologies, products, and managerial practices, thus allowing the company to

attain a leading position in a particular niche and/or maintain competitive advantages over other

companies.

MANAGING CREATIVITY IN THEORY

The notion of creativity and innovation is perceived as a major influence for organisational

success and as such a major issue of concern for managers. “Innovation can arise from several main

sources. It can originate from individuals, research efforts of universities, government laboratories and

incubators, or non-profit organisations. A primary engine of innovation is firms, because they have

greater resources than individuals and a management system to marshal those resources towards a

collective purpose.”1

The role of creativity is underlying for the generation of novel and useful ideas. If creativity is

mainly realised for creating competitive advantage, then much closer attention needs to be paid to

understanding how creativity exists as an array of contextual and unique company resources and

relationships, not simply as a commodity which can be acquired in the marketplace.

In the specialised literature there are quite a few theories that deal with the term of creativity:

definitions, role of creativity inside the organisation, ways of managing creativity, but none of these

give for certain their findings.

Creativity is often seen as a psychological phenomenon, an aspect of behaviour, “the act of

doing something new”. 2

Maybe the most common definition is the one that states that creativity is “a mental process

involving the generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or

concepts.”

George Keller said that “creativity consists largely of re-arranging what we know in order to find

out what we don’t know”.

In today’s business environment it is very important that organizations have the ability to be

creative and innovative in order to gain competitive advantage and thus stay active in the market.

1 M. Schilling, “Strategic Management of Technological Innovation”, 2005, McGraw-Hill2 www.mindtools.com/pages/main/new MN_CT.htm

2

http://www.mindtools.com/pages/main/new

“The CITF (Creativity Industry Task Force) defines creative industries as: those industries which

have their origin in individual creativity, skill and talent and which have a potential for wealth job

creation through the generation and exploitation of intellectual property.” 3

The creative work process depends mainly on the interaction of relatively autonomous

employees, which determine the management process, rather than vice versa.

“Creative people work for the love of a challenge. They crave the feeling of accomplishment that

comes from cracking a riddle, be it technological, artistic, social or logistical.”4

The EFACEC GROUP

With a history of more than a century, EFACEC Group was formed in 1948, and became the

largest Portuguese Group in the field of electricity and electronics.

EFACEC INNOVATION- EFAINOVA Project

With the ever increasing notion that in today’s global market western enterprises have only

creativity and innovation as a comparative advantage, EFACEC realizes that a company which cannot

innovate is condemned to decline. The EFAinova project began in March 2003. Carried out as a

project from and for EFACEC, EFAinova is the result of the work of numerous EFACEC collaborators

who joined efforts to “Think a new EFACEC”. It was an initiative of the EFACEC administration and its

President and therefore had their support from the beginning.

Challenges

Two topics were submitted as challenges of the project:

1. Improve and create value of the products and services, strengthening EFACEC Group

synergies in the field of Energy;

2. EFACEC – “One of the Best Employers in Portugal”

Innovation workshops and laboratories

Innovation Workshops and Laboratories were held in order to analyze EFACEC businesses as

well as to delineate new potential opportunities, with the involvement of more than 200 collaborators,

with different experiences and representing all Group Business Units. These innovation workshops

and laboratories surpassed all expectations due to the zeal and interest demonstrated by the internal

participants and additional contribution of different external entities, especially interviews with clients

and study visits carried out within the scope of this project.

3 “Managing creativity and competitive advantage in SMEs: Examining creative, new media firms” by Banks, M; Elliot, M; Owen, J4 “Managing Creativity” by Richard Florida and Jim Goodnight- from Harvard Business Review

3

Furthermore directors and managers from important clients such as EDP and BRISA were

invited to participate in project. This permitted EFACEC to be closer to its clients’ needs and

strengthen relationships.

Methodology

Assuming that Innovation must be seen as a systematic, continuous and sustained procedure,

the team formed to manage the pilot project within the Group developed its activity into three

fundamental directions: Contents, Learning and Behavior. The workshops involved the discussion of

new perspectives and then structured brainstorming sessions.

The following list summarizes the results of the project:

• 21 workshops involving 140 collaborators along with collaborators from EDP

• 10 internal and external interviews

• 3 study visits

• New perspectives

o 90 Orthodoxies

o 8 Core competencies

o 71 Client necessities

o 62 Discontinuities

• 16 Laboratories of Innovation

• 500 ideas generated

• 48 potential opportunities

Of interest to creativity are the 500 ideas that were generated during the structured workshops

which led to 48 potential opportunities. EFACEC was able to create the adequate atmosphere that

encouraged and enhanced collaborators to participate and contribute positively.

Achievements of the project

The EFAinova project turned out to be a huge success and brought a multitude of advantages to

the group. It permitted a wider and deeper knowledge of the whole group, enabled a new experience

for team work, demonstrated the groups’ capacity to generate ideas, and established the premise that

everyone’s contribution is needed. Furthermore, it was acknowledged that the exchange of ideas and

communication amongst the collaborators from different levels and departments is of vital importance.

In conclusion the EFAinova project brought motivation, strength, and enlightening teamwork

spirit to the collaborators at EFACEC. The fact that so much creativity was stored amongst the

colleagues and that it just needed to be unleashed was satisfying. Moreover, it set the foundation work

for the establishment of the Innovation Cabinet at EFACEC.

4

CREATIVITY AT EFACEC

At EFACEC everyone is expected to be creative in their day to day work. In the past there

were two well defined groups: the lower rank workers who were limited to following and fulfilling

orders, and a higher rank that was paid to “think”. Today every person in the context of their functions

is responsible to making suggestions to improve, to innovate; in other words put to their creativity in

practice.

A key issue then is how EFACEC motivates its workforce to be creative. It turns out that

creativity is a crucial aspect of the organizational culture at EFACEC. The people feel that their ideas

are supported and encouraged to open dialogue with not only colleagues but also with superiors. Thus

EFACEC defines creativity as being a mixture of individual skills and organizational capacity to

facilitate the interaction of those individuals.

Successful organizations are those which have an “open spirit” for innovation. Innovation

should be integrated as a continuous process, this implies human and financial investment, but most

of all a positive attitude of all employees, of all stakeholders. Success comes from looking for the next

opportunity and having the ability to find hidden connections and insights into new products or services

desired by the customer.

All persons inside EFACEC must be creative, they have to feel motivated and feel that their

ideas are taken into account. Whereas creativity is perhaps more directly concerned with generating

ideas, innovation is more concerned with the actions and outputs of those ideas. When employees put

forward their ideas they do not have the power in most cases to implement them. One of the functions

of the Innovation Cabinet is precisely to follow through and act on employees’ initiatives.

Presently through the Innovation Cabinet EFACEC has two main paths to manage creativity:

The “Idea Program” consists of an intranet system that receives and diffuses new

ideas from all the collaborators. This Program which is still in the implementation

phase is based on a system that wants to gather all collaborators from all the

departments inside EFACEC. Through this program their ideas will be recognised

which is more important for employees than financial bonuses. They create

honour panels for the persons who contribute with successful ideas.

Workshops

Innovation culture

With the active support of management, innovation is presently at the order of the day. There

is a reinforced collective awareness that it is permanently necessary to question the “status quo”,

thinking and acting against the trend is the only way to be Innovative and Innovator!

Implement, within the Group organization, an innovative culture creating Corporate Value to

turn it the EFACEC Group Value adopted by any member of the organization, independently of his

function, is the principal mission of this project. Generate and manage growth for tomorrow, is,

obviously, an important challenge for all of us. The objective of the IC is to gather as many ideas as

5

possible. They get in average 50 ideas and most of them are put into practice. First every idea is

analysed by a jury which studies closely the cost-profit rapport. If for example the cost is smaller than

the profit at the end of the year than this idea is put into practice. If it corresponds with the

requirements of the project, if it is better than another one, every aspect is taken into consideration.

During these workshops they get ideas about the environment, comfort, quality, communication.

In order to motivate people to be creative you have to have good communication processes

and practices inside the company. Every time you get an idea from the collaborator you have to

respond to that idea and give feedback. Also it is important not to loose time in analysing the idea.

Although different departments have different needs some similarities can be found; for

example in energy, transport and robotics creativity can appear in different way but somehow linked.

What are the characteristics of a creative person in the opinion of EFACEC?

Usually the recruitment is made by persons from human resource management. A creative

person should be dynamic, with broad horizons, with cultural background, with different experiences,

and with new ideas.

The Innovation Cabinet has the objective to stimulate creativity. When persons are occupied

with routine jobs, they are not really concerned with creativity; this is why the Innovation Cabinet has

to stimulate them. The people have to reflect on the problems that are inside the organisation

(workshops are used to identify problems). New employees have more ideas, the others enter in

routine and they start not to question things, so they are not interested in creativity, in developing new

ideas. Here is where the workshops intervene- because they try to offer an incentive for creativity.

The IC has autonomy in choosing and forming teams inside the workshops.

The Innovation Cabinet

The reason for creating the EFACEC Group Innovation Cabinet was basically to carry on from

the success of the EFAinova project. Administration realized that the enterprise’s greatest asset

regarding creativity rested within the group. Thus the challenge was to develop a way to manage and

direct the group’s potential creativity. The cabinet is composed of three persons: two from Porto and

one from Lisbon. They are inserted in the “Shared Services Department”, are an autonomous

transversal department supported by the unity of the group and the specific division which they grant

services to.

The mission of the Cabinet is to develop a culture of innovation; innovation not just at the

technological level but at all levels such as organizational, management, sales, and services, amongst

others. The Cabinet has the task of creating an adequate environment in which creativity can flourish;

teamwork and communication enhanced, and the network of relationships strengthened. This

“creative environment” is strongly supported by Amabile (1988, 1997) who defends that in order to

6

encourage creativity information and new ideas must be communicated openly between all levels.

Moreover the Innovation Cabinet preoccupies itself with the coordination of workshops and events,

and in finding ways to involve and stimulate all collaborators in order to contribute with ideas.

The Ideas Management Program

The Innovation Cabinet promotes creativity in two main ways. One way is through the “ideas management program” which consists of an intranet system that receives and diffuses new ideas

from all collaborators. Up to now this program was available to half of the population at EFACEC, it is

now being extended to enable every collaborator to contribute and stay informed with all news and

developments at EFACEC. This program is effective in introducing innovative ways to improving

processes. EFACEC believes that there is nobody that knows the job better than the workers

themselves so they are encouraged to intervene with suggestions every day. This program produces

on average one good idea per week which is applied.

Once an idea is received it is analyzed by a jury, who nominates someone to go to the site for

further analysis. A feasibility analysis is performed to estimate if the benefits outweigh the costs; if

they do then the idea is generally adopted. The Innovation Cabinet has the additional responsibility of

carrying the idea through, of not letting it die because of inefficient bureaucracies, and avoiding the

lost of an opportunity.

A “suggestions awards” scheme awards employees for creative ideas which have the potential

of improving processes, products, quality, communication, safety, culture, etc. The “suggestion award”

basically gives the employee recognition; monetary awards are not used. According to Mr. Oliveira

recognition tactics are what has most impact on collaborators. If the idea is implemented that in itself

is already a motive for pride in the employee, in line with theories that support the concept that

motivation for creativity is intrinsic. Other recognition techniques include the use of the EFACEC’s

newsletter, posters, panels and pictures exhibited in canteens, halls, meeting rooms, etc. During the

company’s banquets the Executive Committee presents the awards to the deserving employees. This

program makes the employees feel satisfied and promotes a creativity culture which enhances “team

learning” and the “learning organization”.

The Workshop Strategy

The other way in which the Innovation Cabinet promotes creativity is through the application of

specific projects developed and directed purposely at a division. A series of workshops are

organized and administered to a wide mix of employees from all departments (manufacturing, R&D,

marketing, etc.), different hierarchical levels (managers to blue collar workers) and seniority (trainees

to 30 years in-house) in the division. This practice emphasizes the importance of diversity in the

process of creativity.

On average the Innovation Cabinet administers 10 projects per year, one workshop per day.

The average workshop consists of 8 persons who are rotated in order to include as many employees

7

as possible if not all in the workshop. To keep some continuity and overall understanding of the whole

process at least 3 employees participate in all workshops, they then have the responsibility of

informing the rest of the colleagues. In these projects the same methodology used in the EFAinova

project is applied; the next section illustrates and describes this methodology.

Workshop Organization

Graph 1: From EFACEC Newsletter: ef@news

First Phase: “Preparation and Communication”

This phase prepares the division for the workshops that are going to be administered. The

Innovation Cabinet in collaboration with the managers select and inform the participants and make a

schedule for the workshops.

Second Phase: “New perspectives”

In this phase the collaborators are going to develop and analyse new perspectives as seen

from 4 different lenses. These lenses are going to permit the group to see better and thus identify new

opportunities.

1. Orthodoxies

Through this lens methods and processes are questioned. After some time certain behaviours

and practices are rooted in such a way that they are not questioned because that is just the way it is.

The purpose of this lens is to confront such processes and beliefs of the collaborators and force them

to ask why.

2. Key Competencies

This lens enables the collaborators to think and discuss the main competencies that give them

comparative advantages; identify what they do well and what differentiates them from the competition.

PREPARATIONAND

COMMUNICATION

NEW PERSPECTIVES

GENERATINGIDEAS AND DOMAINS

INNOVATION LABORATORIES

AnalyseSelectionHierarchy

CRIVO-LAB

8

This forces the group to define the key competencies of the business unit and thus share the same

perspective. It is surprising some times to find out how much collaborators differ on their business

notions.

3. Necessities of Clients

Apply and compare the necessities of clients from other sectors to the clients of EFACEC.

How do other sector clients’ necessities reflect on EFACEC´s clients; lots of times the necessities are

similar.

4 Discontinuities

Analyses of market tendencies in the future; search the Internet; identification of new

developments, specialized materials, products, processes. It is an analyses of the present and the

future; it is a perspective that takes the group from today to tomorrow.

Third Phase: “Brainstorming for new Ideas”

This phase usually takes place in an informal environment; the point is to collect as many

ideas as possible; it is not permitted to criticize each others ideas. The 5 W’s can be applied here

(who, what, where, when, and why) to come up with ideas.

Fourth Phase: “Creating New Opportunities”

In this phase the ideas are analysed, selected, and prioritized. The ideas are connected and

potential opportunities are identified. A cross analysis is performed and there is a focus on the

important question word “How”. This fourth phase kind of gets everybody on track to work towards one

direction.

Below are some results of three projects that were administered by the Innovation Cabinet.

• Innovation in the Robotics Division

Theme: Robotics, Preparing the Future

15 workshops, involved all collaborators

162 ideas generated

New strategic orientation

• Innovation in the High Volt Division

Theme: Grabbing the Future

11 workshops, involved all collaborators

110 ideas generated

• Innovation in Energy Distribution Division

28 workshops, involved 142 collaborators

9

335 ideas generated

190 new perspectives

22 opportunities identified

DISCUSSION

The main components of creativity according to J. Howells 5 are: intellectual abilities (articulation of ideas), knowledge (understanding of the field), style of thinking (novel way), and

personality (confidence in own capabilities), environment (support & reward for creative ideas).

After analysing different theoretical background and the practical case of EFACEC, I have

developed the following perception of creativity in the company.

Graph 2: Definition of creativity in our opinion

Creativity is a new way of doing things which results in the development of new ideas,

products and technologies. The implementation of these ideas leads both to financial losses and

gains, since not all new ideas are feasible. However, the main objective of creativity in the organization

is profit. I do not distinguish the sources of creativity and I consider that human resources are the

most important element in this process. Managing human resources successfully with a focus on

creativity processes are the biggest challenges that managers presently face, since it has tight

interconnection with development of competitive advantages of the firm.

In my view EFACEC managed to fulfil numerous points of what I consider is vital for creativity

management. For example it manages to bring together individuals, research efforts of universities,

becoming in this way a primary engine of innovation. They succeed in gathering resources so that

individuals and the management system can marshal those resources towards a collective purpose.

Organizational creativity is a function of creativity of individuals within the organization.

Through the Innovation Cabinet EFACEC controls the social processes and contextual factors which

shape how those individuals interact and behave. EFACEC realized the importance of managing

efficiently the network of relations in order to promote creativity in the organization.

5 Howells, J. (2005) The Management of Innovation & Technology. Sage. Schilling, M. (2005) Strategic Management of Technological Innovation. McGraw-Hill. Tidd, J., J. Bessant & K. Pavitt (2005, 3rd Edition) Managing Innovation. J. Wiley.

Creativity

New ideasNew way of doing

New productNew technology

Implementation

Loss

Gain

ProfitOBJECTIVE:

10

CONCLUSION

I started this project with the question ”Is EFACEC a creative company?” After gathering

information from what the theory says and what I discovered from EFACEC I can answer: YES. The

Innovation Cabinet has successfully integrated inside the structures of the group creativity and

innovation concepts. For them to be innovative means to be able to overpass the clients’ expectations

and to change in somehow the way business is usually done. By redefining these rules they try to

obtain new and unique competitive advantages which are difficult to imitate by the competition.

In a world where innovation has become the key of business success every company has to be

as creative as possible. As I have seen throughout the paper, creativity deals with the generating of

new ideas, while innovation concentrates more into putting these ideas into practice. So the difficult

task is to continue to obtain new ideas from the people who work for and with the enterprise. This is

done by creating the proper environment in the organization.

The Innovation Cabinet creates this environment in EFACEC. It implements practices and

behaviors that support a culture of innovation. It is market oriented when it includes clients in its own

workshops, and vice versa. It promotes an innovation friendly coalition within its workforce through the

“Ideas Program” and by including as many collaborators as possible in the “Workshop Projects”.

Furthermore the organizational structures of the workshops themselves provide an open spirited

atmosphere that propels creativity

EFACEC realized in time that a creative organization needs to be creative in all aspects of

business and in order to do that it needs all of its collaborators (workforce, clients, other firms,

suppliers, universities, non-profit organizations, the state, etc.). Its capability to manage this complex

network determines its creativity capacity. It acted by establishing the Innovation Cabinet and giving it

autonomy and powers to manage the group’s network. Furthermore it motivates people to

communicate, creates possibilities and a friendly space to interact. The contribution of all

collaborators, not only of top management will be very important and will have a great impact on the

future success of the group. In conclusion I can state that through the efficient management of the

workshops and the “Idea Program” the Innovation Cabinet has the power to enhance creativity in

EFACEC and therefore a direct impact on the future of EFACEC.

11

REFERENCES

1. Howells, J. (2005) “The Management of Innovation & Technology”, Sage. Schilling, M. (2005)

“Strategic Management of Technological Innovation” McGraw-Hill.

Tidd, J., J. Bessant & K. Pavitt (2005, 3rd Edition) Managing Innovation. J. Wiley.

2. Richard Florida and Jim Goodnight, “Managing Creativity” , Harvard Business Review, 2003

3. M. Schilling, “Strategic Management of Technological Innovation”, 2005, McGraw-Hill

4. www.mindtools.com/pages/main/new MN_CT.htm

5. Banks, M; Elliot, M; Owen J., “Managing creativity and competitive advantage in SMEs: Examining

creative, new media firms” , 2004

6. Wheelihan K., The Creativity Institute, «Creativity for Success»: 2005

http://www.creativityinstitute.com/index.asp?PageAction=Custom&ID=54

References without author:

http://www.negocios.pt/default.asp?CpContentId=272349

José de Mello site, http://www.josedemello.pt/gjm_mapa_00.asp?lang=pt

OCES Report

http://www.oces.mctes.pt/docs/ficheiros/50_maiores310106.pdf

http://www.cotec.pt/Cotec/Homepage/Default_EA.aspx

Tecnoholding SGPS

http://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/fsd10547.pdf

Tecnoholding buyers remainder of EFACECS shares


EFACEC Group

http://www.efacec.pt/presentationLayer/efacec_home_00.aspx?idioma=2

12

http://www.efacec.pt/presentationLayer/efacec_home_00.aspx?idioma=2


http://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/fsd10547.pdf

http://www.cotec.pt/Cotec/Homepage/Default_EA.aspx

http://www.oces.mctes.pt/docs/ficheiros/50_maiores310106.pdf

http://www.josedemello.pt/gjm_mapa_00.asp?lang=pt


http://www.creativityinstitute.com/index.asp?PageAction=Custom&ID=54

http://www.mindtools.com/pages/main/new%20MN_CT.htm

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH 112 LOCATION TRACKING

REUȚ FLORIN1

Abstract

With new generation which will introduce multimedia services and more and more interests, there are

some inconveniences at signals propagation. The propagation problems give some errors at location

tracking which can be reduced using any technology and practice.

Tracking location in urgency systems 112There are several CDMA systems worldwide, these include IS-95 in the United States,

WCDMA (Wideband CDMA) and UMTS (Universal Mobile Telephone System). In principle, the wide

bandwidth of CDMA systems serves to increase the accuracy of location estimates, but the use of

TDOA techniques within a CDMA system presents several challenges.

◊ The signals must be cross-correlated with the desired code sequence in addition to each other

to separate the signal from the multiple access interference.

◊ The location accuracy decreases as the mobile station moves nearer to one base station and

away from other base stations making TDOA measurements.

◊ The decrease in accuracy is also exacerbated by the use of power control, which decreases

signal power as the mobile unit approaches a base station

◊ A major implementation issue for a mobile station location technique is the synchronism of the

CDMA system.

CDMA systems can be divided into two main groups in this respect, namely synchronous and

asynchronous.

Examples: CDMA 2000 is a synchronous system while WCDMA is asynchronous system .

The CDMA (IS-95) uplink consists of access channels and reverse traffic channels, each of

which may be used for location estimation. Only when a call is in progress, the reverse channel comes

into play and hence its use for location tracking may be minimized. Since, an 112 must be placed first

before a location detection algorithm is initialized, the reverse channel may still be used. In other

value-added services where a call is not initiated and location tracking has to be ascertained, we have

to use the access channels only. In order to respond to pages and messages from the base station,

the mobile terminal uses an access channel. These messages include call origination messages, data

burst messages and registration messages, to name a few. A registration message may be initiated

autonomously by the mobile host. IS-95A supports three types of registration messages.1 INSTITUTUL PENTRU TEHNOLOGII AVANSATE, [email protected]

autonomous registration;

ordered registration;

parameter-change registration.

Autonomous access channel transmissions can provide the signals used for wireless location

when a mobile terminal is idle. IS-95A supports autonomous registration at power-up and power-down

and be timer-based, zone-based or distance-based. Zone-based updates occur when the mobile

terminal from one group of base stations (also called a zone) to another group. It is essential that the

service provider must group base station into zones. Distance-based registration updates occur

whenever a mobile terminal moves a predetermined distance away from the base station. In both

zone- and distance-based updates, the mobility governs the frequency of updates. Implementing time-

based registration can however, regularize these updates.

The time interval between successive updates is set up the base station in IS-95A.

(REG_PRD is the parameter defining registration parameter, whose range is from 16 to 80) The

mobile terminal also maintains a timer which times out every 2.02 4/_ ×PRDREG seconds. The timer

is reset after it expires, on power-up and after implicit registration.

Reverse Link Location for IS-95 Reverse link location tracking is based primarily on TDOA principles. On the reverse link

(uplink), a known signal is observed at a number of time-synchronized base stations. The received

signals from base stations are then cross-correlated to estimate the differences in TOA. The reverse

link approach has the advantage that the mobile station can be located without requiring active

participation by the mobile itself other than to transmit a known signal. The relatively wide (1.25 MHz)

bandwidth of the IS-95 signal creates sharp correlation peaks, allowing for accurate location

estimation.

The disadvantage of reverse link location is that the ability to detect the signal at multiple base

stations is limited by the system’s normal power control operation. This ‘hearability’ issue can be

tackled by adding a “power-up” function to the IS-95 standard, which allows a mobile to transmit a

short burst at high power so that its signal can be detected at multiple base stations. The results of

overriding the power control are dramatic. Although there is still a threshold effect, it occurs at a much

closer distance to the base station.

Forward Link Location for IS-95

Forward link can also be used in the IS-95 interface, which avoids the power control problems

in the reverse link. Reception on the forward link is done coherently. To maintain coherence, a mobile

searches for and locks onto a pilot pseudo-noise (P/N) sequence. Each base station broadcasts the

pilot P/N sequence with a unique known offset. The base stations are synchronized, allowing the

mobile station to identify the signal coming out from a particular base station.

A typical IS-95 mobile terminal has four Rake receivers. Three of these Rake receivers are

used to receive an incoming signal and the fourth is used to search for multipath signals and handover

candidates. While it is active in the system, the mobile station keeps track of the strongest pilots in its

vicinity. The base station initiates a pilot measurement request order (PMRO). The terminal responds

by all of the pilot signals it receives above a given threshold. The response given to the base station

includes the magnitude of each pilot in the candidate set and the P/N phase of each pilot, relative to

the offset of the base station transmitting the pilot tone.

Using the pilot of the serving base station as a phase reference and knowing the P/N offsets of

the pilots transmitted from nearby stations, TDOA estimates [3] can be calculated from the control

messages already present in the IS-95 interface standard.

The main concern in forward link location is the presence of synchronization timing errors in

base stations. These result from crude P/N phase resolution and multipath and non-line-of-sight

propagation. The IS-95 standard requires that the base stations be synchronized only to within about 3

ms, which is generally inadequate to perform accurate location estimation. Practically, however,

synchronization errors can be reduced to tens of nanoseconds by exploiting a precision GPS time

base.

There is some difficulty in using forward link for location estimation. To maximize system

capacity in an interference-limited environment, a mobile station should receive one strong pilot signal

to maintain reception coherence and receive little pilot signal energy from nearby base stations, until

the mobile is ready to be handed over to the next base station. Minimal pilot pollution from other base

stations reduces capacity limiting interference and conserves network resources by minimizing the soft

handover mode time. Hence, a tradeoff results between the ability to perform location on the forward

link and the minimization of pilot pollution.

Multipath propagation

The most significant reason for inaccuracies observed in the AOA and signal strength

measurement is the presence of multipath propagation. Multipath also cause timing discrepancies,

causing errors in timing estimates when there is a line-of-sight (LOS) path between the base station

Figure 1- CDMA (IS-95) Forward Link Location

and the mobile station. The TDOA estimate is taken as the delay, which maximizes the cross-

correlation function. The cross correlation is also used to determine at which base station the signal

arrived first. These two pieces of information yield an unambiguous hyperbolic curve.

In the presence of multipath, however, the time resolution of the TDOA estimate is limited to

approximately 1/B, where B is the bandwidth of the received signal.

For example: when receiving a 1 MHz signal, the time delays can only be resolved to within 1 ms, or

within 300 meters.

The temporal resolution limit of conventional cross correlation can be explained by analogy

with the problem of resolving closely spaced sinusoids. Sinusoids closer than 1/N in the frequency

domain cannot be resolved, where N is the number of data samples. In the frequency spectrum, the

true spectrum of two sinusoids is smeared by convolution with the Fourier Transform of a rectangular

window. Similarly, the true temporal characteristics of the channel are smeared by windowing in the

frequency domain. If the temporal features are finer than 1/B, where B is the bandwidth of the signal,

the temporal features cannot be resolved, at least by using correlation.

If multipath components arriving within 1/B seconds of each other cannot be resolved, Table 1

shows the distance that a signal can propagate in 1/B seconds. Note that this is the potential location

error that can occur if the first arriving component is not resolved.

Wireless Standard Bandwidth (B) Location Error (c/B)AMPS 30KHz 10.000mGSM 200KHz 1.500m

CDMA(IS-95) 1.25MHz 240m

Table 1 - Position error with multipath time-delay resolution limited to 1/BDelay estimators, based on correlation techniques, are worst affected by multipath if the

reflected raysarrive within a chip period of the first arriving ray. When the first ray arrives with less

power than the later arriving rays, conventional delay estimators will detect a delay in the vicinity of

these later arriving rays.

Let us analyze the effect of multipath on fine acquisition techniques. Consider a two-ray

channel, where the second ray has half the power of the first ray and is delayed by half a chip

Figure 2. Multipath propagation and delay profile

duration. The multipath component is seen to bias the tracking of the DLL. The effects of multipath on

delay estimation can be checked using any of the following methods:

High-resolution frequency estimator;

Least mean square (LMS) technique;

Extended Kalman Filtering.

Non Line-of-Sight propagation

Non Line-of-Sight (or NLOS) means that the signal arriving at the base station from the mobile

station is reflected or diffracted and takes a longer path than the direct path, can see in figura 2. In

Global System of Mobile Communications (GSM), the average NLOS error may be in the range

400-700 m. NLOS propagation will bias the TOA and TDOA measurements even when the high-

resolution timing techniques are employed and there is no multipath interference.

One method to distinguish between LOS and NLOS base stations is to measure the standard

deviation of the TOA measurements. The standard deviation of the range measurements is much

higher for NLOS propagation than for LOS propagation. By using a priori information about the range

error statistics, the range measurements made over a period of time and corrupted by NLOS error can

be adjusted to values near their correct LOS values. A second approach is to reduce the weights of

the NLOS base stations in the least squares algorithm. This approach, however, requires means of

determining NLOS base stations.

An alternate approach is to make algorithmic changes to the location algorithm and exploit the

fact that the range error from NLOS propagation is always positive. This is because the NLOS

corrupted TOA estimates are always greater than direct TOA values. Therefore, we note that the true

location must always lie inside the circle of radius Nircr i ,..,2,1),( =−= τ , about the N base

stations, since the mobile station cannot lie farther than its corresponding range estimate. It is easily

demonstrated that the least squares algorithm often fails this principle. Mathematically, this implies

that

22 )()()( yyxxcr iiii −+−≥−≡ ττ (1)

where (x,y) is the position of the mobile station. Constraining the estimates to satisfy equation (1) at

each round of iteration can form a new location algorithm.

As a result of the constrained algorithm, the error that results from NLOS propagation is

reduced, especially when three base stations are used. Also, this approach yields diminishing returns

as the number of base stations used in the location process is increased.

Concluzion In this presentation we try to preview ones of more problems which come in 112 urgency

system mobile phones determination of position location. We can see that for all the problem there is

solutions for influence limitations.

Bibliography

[1] GSM association,”Location Based Services, Permanent Reference Document”, Iun 2003.

[2] IEEE-4, Proc. of the IEEE “Special Issue on The Global Information Infrastructure”, Dec. 1998.

[3] Muhammad A., “Evaluation of TDOA techniques for position location in CDMA systems”, Virginia,

1997.

[4] Pop E., “Accesul multiplu în comunicaţiile cu spectru distribuit – Sisteme CDMA”, Editura Matrix

Rom, Bucureşti, 2000.

„Reuţ Florin, ofiţer inginer, Institutul de Tehnologii Avansate, Bucureşti, Dinu Vintilă 7-9, tel. 0040 21

2036462, e-mail: [email protected] ”

REŢEA NEURONALĂ ARTIFICIALĂ PARALELĂ PENTRU LOCALIZAREA MUCHIILOR ŞI

INTEGRAREA CONTURULUI

Drd. ing. Florin Ţenea1

Prof. dr. ing. Tudor Niculescu2

Abstract

The paper describes a new type of artificial neural network – ANN for edge-based pattern extraction problems. In the model, each neuron represents an edge with continuous state variables describing its location and orientation.

Each neuron adjusts its state to increase its membrane potential, which results in highly adaptive dynamics of the synaptic weight distribution. The network allocates multiple neurons with different orientation modes for each edge. The strategy allows accurate modeling of multi-modal distributions at key-points such as corners and junctions. As a result, the network delineates edges at sub-pixel accuracy while preserving key-points. It is also capable of processing a sequence of images and following moving objects.

1. INTRODUCERE

Sistemul vizual uman este capabil să extragă rapid pattern-uri (tipare) din cadrul unui set de caracteristici cum ar fi contururile. Totuşi, sunt des folosite un număr mare de cunoştinţe pentru a extrage pattern-urile din zgomot.

Unul din ......... prezent în majoritatea sistemelor biologice dar care lipsesc din structura sistemelor artificiale îl reprezintă numărul mare de specializări necesare adaptării pe mai multe nivele: biochimic, anatomic, morfologic şi arhitectural. Această adaptabilitate ridicată în sistemele biologice este responsabilă pentru performanţele superioare, flexibilitate şi toleranţă. În ultima perioadă, studiile efectuate în acest vast domeniu au reuşit să demonstreze faptul că schimbările morfologice sunt capabile să influenţeze în sensul îmbunătăţirii capabilităţilor perceptive ale acestor sisteme.

În mod normal, iniţial sunt detectate muchiile unei forme vizuale deoarece problema extragerii conturului tiparelor (formelor) a fost şi rămâne deosebit de importantă într-o multitudine de domenii. Tipic, un contur este reprezentat prin localizarea muchiilor ce îl compun şi orientarea unghiurilor acestora. Astfel,

1 Ministerul Apărării, tel. 0723665025, e-mail. [email protected] Universitatea Hyperion, tel. 0745121254

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coordonatele furnizate de pixeli sunt utile pentru estimarea localizării iar direcţia rezultată din calculul gradientului la sol este folosită pentru a estima orientarea.

În majoritatea problemelor de recunoaştere a pattern-urilor performanţa unui astfel de sistem este puternic dependentă de estimarea iniţială.

În prezenta lucrare a fost introdus comportamentul adaptiv prin faptul că a fost permisă fiecărei muchii să î-şi schimbe reprezentarea astfel încât să se încadreze cât mai bine cu muchiile vecine. Astfel, fiecare muchie este reprezentată prin următoarele caracteristici:

Orientarea:

−∈ ,

2,

2ππθ ;

Locaţia spaţială a conturului: 2),( ℜ∈yxSistemul, conceput cu ajutorul unui model de RNA3 cu puternice legături

paralele, în care fiecare neuron ajută la reprezentarea conturului, foloseşte neuroni multipli în scopul reprezentării diferite ale aceleiaşi muchii astfel fiind capabil să dea posibilitatea apariţiei unui mecanism competitiv prin care numai un singur neuron va câştiga reprezentarea muchiei respective (muchia corectă).

2. LOCALIZAREA MUCHIILOR

Sistemul are suprafeţe multiple de orientare ceea ce face ca neuronii să fie grupaţi în final în două straturi (Fig.1):

Stratul de intrare; Stratul de relaxare.

Fig.1 Arhitectura RNA pentru localizarea muchiilor

Neuronii din stratul de intrare sunt senzitivi la schimbarea iluminării în câmpul receptiv şi se comportă ca şi operatori de gradient. Fiecare neuron din stratul de intrare calculează puterea gradientului şi direcţia perpendiculară la gradient. De la ieşirea neuronilor de intrare excitaţia (semnalul) prin ponderile corespunzătoare legăturilor ajunge la următoarele k straturi neuronale, de relaxare, unde k reprezintă numărul de orientări disponibile. Aşadar, fiecare neuron din stratul de relaxare primeşte legăturile feed-forward de la neuronii din stratul de intrare, intrări excitatorii de la ceilalţi neuroni din stratul de relaxare ce au aceeaşi direcţie şi intrări inhibatorii de la neuronii vecini cu orientări diferite.

3 Reţea Neuronală Artificială

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Strat de intrare

Strat de relaxare

Legături feed-forward

În stratul de relaxare fiecare neuron îşi ajustează orientarea şi locaţia astfel încât să se încadreze cât mai bine cu vecinii. În general, fiecare neuron trebuie să se supună următoarei restricţii:

unde: Ni şi ii NsiN~

_ reprezintă seturi de neuroni de relaxare şi de intrare ce sunt vecini cu eim, respectiv gijm şi g~

ijm iar α este o constantă.A doua relaţie furnizează probabilitatea competiţională a neuronilor

funcţie de modurile de orientare.i, j, k – indici ai locaţiilor;l, m, n – indici pentru orientări;eim – neuron de relaxare din locaţia i cu orientarea m;e~

j – neuron de intrare din locaţia j.Fiecare neuron de relaxare este reprezentat prin trei atribute: x, y, θ.Aşadar, pentru neuronul eim vom avea corespunzător atributele: xim, yim,

θim. Pentru reprezentarea potenţialului de membrană şi nivelul de activare al neuronului eim se utilizează sim şi pim.

Similar, sunt folosite notaţiile x~j, y~

j, θ~j, s~

j şi p~j pentru poziţiile variabile

în e~j.

−∈ ,

2,

2

~ ππθ j .

În continuare, sunt folosite pentru extragerea muchiilor şi alinierea acestora, formulele:

unde:

Reprezintă ponderile legăturilor de la neuronul ejm la neuronul eim şi de la

neuronul e~j la neuronul eim, iar

reprezintă un termen de sincronizare.În continuarea procesului de antrenare al reţelei neuronale fiecare neuron

îşi înnoieşte atributele (x, y, θ) în scopul creşterii potenţialului membranei.Atributele spaţiale (x, y) sunt recalculate conform formulelor matematice:

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Pentru calculul orientării se foloseşte următoarea formulă:

Dacă un stimul nesemnificativ este prezent în câmpul receptiv, neuronul are o slabă dinamică dar se restabilizează în starea sa iniţială. Intrarea va fi considerată semnificativă dacă puterea gradientului la intrarea câmpului depăşeşte un anumit prag apriori stabilit.

Atributele implicite pentru o locaţie i sunt: (xi0, yi0), orientarea implicită într-un anumit mod m este mπ/k – π/2 iar pragul de activare implicit este 1/k.

Regulile de învăţare pentru atributele reţelei vor induce schimbări adaptive în distribuţia ponderilor legăturilor. Astfel, când un gradient puternic este prezent în câmpul de intrare al unui neuron iar orientarea acestuia este apropiată cu orientarea implicită a neuronului atunci neuronul îşi va ajusta atributele interne astfel încât distribuţia legăturilor să fie cât mai asemănătoare celei prezente la intrarea sa. Dacă pattern-ul se deplasează neuronul îşi continuă modificarea atributelor astfel încât distribuţia profilurilor G şi G~ să urmărească această deplasare. Când orientarea gradientului este foarte diferită de cea implicită a neuronului, aceasta îşi ajustează atributele interne pentru revenirea la starea iniţială (implicită).

3. INTEGRAREA CONTURULUI ŞI CONCATENAREA MUCHIILOR

Procesul de integrarea a conturului constă în gruparea fragmentelor muchiilor şi construirea unui contur prin alipire.

În scopul realizării acestei operaţiuni, este introdus un nou model de reţea (strat) cu modificări minore comparativ cu cel prezent în Fig.1.

Fig.2 Arhitectura RNA cu stratul de proeminenţă

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Strat de relaxare

Strat de proeminenţă

Aceasta este responsabilă cu calcularea proeminenţelor neuronilor de relaxare, concatenarea acestora în scopul formării conturului şi detectarea punctelor cheie. Astfel, un strat adiţional este adăugat înaintea stratului de relaxare numit strat de proeminenţă.

Problema principală este selectarea unui sub-set de muchii şi legătura dintre acestea pentru construirea conturului. Pentru acestea, este utilizată o tehnică conform căreia se defineşte o hartă cuantificată (grid) în scopul influenţării orientării muchiilor. În acest scop se defineşte următorul model:

unde s~il şi p~

il reprezintă potenţialul de membrană şi pragul de activare a neuronilor de proeminenţă. De asemenea, s şi p reprezintă potenţialul de membrană şi pragul de activare al neuronului de activare.

Empiric poate fi utilizată următoarea formulă:

unde αjikl reprezintă unghiul format de segmentele de linie ce unesc punctele (xj0, yj0) - (xie, yie) şi (xie, yie) - (xk0, yk0).

Fig. 3 Reprezentarea distanţelor şi unghiurilor

Astfel, procesul este implementat cu ajutorul reţelei neuronale prezentate în Figura 2.

Concatenarea muchiilorDupă convergenţa RN, p~ furnizează harta proeminenţlor.Activitatea neuronilor este suspendată dacă neuronul nu furnizează o

muchie care are orientarea în sensul direcţiei date de hartă.

5 din 6

4. CONCLUZII

În cadrul prezentei lucrări a fost prezentat un nou tip de RNA capabilă să realizeze localizarea muchiilor şi integrarea conturului oricărui tip de pattern (formă).

Noutatea rezidă din faptul că reţeaua implementează adaptarea controlată a legăturilor dintre neuroni cu ajutorul atributelor interne ale acestora.

De asemenea, o altă caracteristică importantă a RN prezentate este aceea că în timpul antrenării acesteia competiţia candidaţilor se face în fiecare locaţie a pattern-ului care este studiat.

Printre aplicaţiile care folosesc acest tip de RNA se numără segmentarea texturilor, percepţia color, clasificarea formelor etc.

Bibliografie

1. Manly Bryan F.J., Multivariate Statistical Methods, Chapman & Hall, New York, 129-145, 2000;

2. Ben-Shahar, O., & Zucker, S. W., The perceptual organization of texture flow: a contextual inference approach, IEEE, 2003;

3. Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, Perona, P. Deformable kernel for early vision, IEEE, 1995;

4. Zaharia C.N., Cristea Al., Algoritmi genetici şi reţele neuronale, Ed. Academiei Române, Bucureşti, 2002.

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The Generalized Algorithm for Solving the Multiobjective Fractional Transportation Problem of “Bottleneck” type. Tkacenko Alexandra Department of Applied Mathematics, Moldova State University, Chisinau. e-mail: tkacenko@ moldovacc.md

Abstract: In the paper the multicriteria transportation fractional problem of “bottleneck “ type is investigated. We have studied the case of identical denominators of the objective functions like of the total cost or deterioration per unit of time and many other similarly criteria which presented an increased interest on the practical point of view. We proposed an iterative algorithm with theoretical justification for solving the proposed problem, in which the time constraining criterion is included. It is tested on a concrete example, annexed in the work. Key-Words: Multiple Criteria Model, Fractional Programming, Efficient Solution, “Bottleneck” Constraining, Objective Function.

Work migration abroad and its effects in an emmergent market economy

Universitary Assistent Iuliana MatacheHyperion University Bucharest

Introduction

'Migration involves the more or less permanent movement of individuals or groups beyond

symbolic or political borders to new communities and residential areas’. (Oxford Dictionary of Sociology).

In a world affected by globalization, the migration phenomenon has no chance of disappearing in

the future, thus migration can be a part of any discussion about development in Romania.

Man has always tried to improve his condition, which is why the more developed areas of the

world have been a magnet to those living in less-developed countries.

Migration has to be looked upon as a process which implies a subject (the inmigrant-emigrant), at

least two countries (the origin country, as well as the destimation country, but also the transition country)

and the intent to find a job in the destination country (and even to settle in this country).

The main drive of modern migration is globalization. Romania takes part in the international

migration phenomenon because of the economic, social and political downfall.1

The analysis of the Romanian migration starts with the year 1989. Before this year, the migration

of the Romanians was caused by the political regime; people emigrated for ethnic reasons, over 60% of

those emigrants having other nationalities, especially Hungarians, Germans and Jews, and the destination

countries were mostly Germany, Hungary, Israel, but also the United States of America. Because of the

poor life conditions and the political situation in Romania, the emigration has had an ever stronger rising

tendency in the years 1988-1989. From a quantitative point of view, year 1990 reprsents the peak of the

Romanian contemporary migration. Due to the uncertain trajectory in the evolution of the country and the

opening of the borders, almost 100.000 Romanians left the country, thus doubling the number of

emigrants from the year before.In the next perios, the Romanian migration is determined more by

economical conditions, than by ethnic reasons.

Other nationalities have diminished and in 2004 the Romanians represented more then 90% of

the emigrants. The destination countries were USA, Italy, Germany, Greece and Canada. There are a few

changes in the migration by sexes, the percent of women being quite high, 64%. From the point of view of

age groups, people between 26-40 yeard old constituted 58% of the population that migrated in this

period.

Therefore, Romania is a country of migration, the net emigration rate being 0,5 in 1000 people in

2005 and the rate of the natural growth of population is -1,9 in 1000 people, which shows that the decrese

1 Badescu,Ilie.Sociodemografia lumii rurale in Romania,in Europa Centrala si Eurasia.Sociologie

Romaneasca,vol III,4, 2005

1

in Romanian population is also due, in small measure, to the constant emigration. (source: National

Institute for Statistics). The data refers only to the legal emigrants that constantly change their domicile.

But, there are also the illegal emigrants, those who work abroad temporarily and those the circular

migration.

Illegal migration started developing after 1990, as shown in a study done by the National Institute

for Scientific Research for Work and Social Protection. The estimates made by the authors of this study on

illegal migration show that it has exceeded legal migration with almost 20-30% and that over 30% of the

illegal migration was directed towards slave and work force trade, which is a violation of human rights and

degrades the personality of the individual. The forms of illegal migration were the permanent one and the

temporary/circular one, meaning that after earning a sufficient amount of money they would return to

Romania, leaving again after a while.2

A study conducted as the request of the International Migration Organization shows that in one in

five Romanian family there is one emigrant who leaves to work abroad. The Foundation for An Open

Society (FOS) conducted a representative research at a national level concerning the migration for work

purposes of Romanians between 1990-2006, according to which more than a third of the households have

at least one member that emigrated to work aroad. This research also shows three different stages in the

work migration of Romanians:

The first stage, between 1990-1995 is characterized by a rate of migration of 3 in 1000 people, the

destination countries being turkey, Israel, Italy, Germany, Hungary.

The second stage, between 1996-2001 is characterized by a rate of migration of 7 in 1000 people, the

destination countries being Sapin, USA, Canada.

The third stage is characterized by the suspension of the Schengen visa, between 2001-2006,

with a rate of migration of 28 in 1000 people, with destinationc ountries such as Italy (40% of the total of

emigrants), Spain (18%), Germany (5%), Hungary (5%), Israel (6%).

The official data of the Departament for Work Abroad refer only to the number of work contracts

signed through the Office for Work Force Migration of through private employment agencies. The office

has placed a number of 42.758 workers in 2005 and 46.409 in 2006, which is an increase of 8,54% in the

work force as opposed to 2005; 53,5% of the work force are men and more than 95% have ages between

18 and 45 years old; the destination countries are Germany first with 78%, then Spain with 21%. The

Romanian emigrants are from Southern, Western and Central Muntenia, and the field in which they

activate in their destination countries are agriculture and constructions.

Legal or not, permanent, temporary of circular, the Romanian migration has had a rising tendency

in the last 17 years. The reasons can be economical, political and social, but it can also be of a subjective

nature, suc as personal expectations or perceptions.

Migration implies taking certain risks and history has shown that the emigrants are the most

dynamic and bold members of a society.

2 Rotariu,Traian,Demografia si sociologia populatiei.Fenomene demografice .Iasi,Ed Polirom,2003

2

Migration for work

Migration for work has become in recent years a major component of the Romanian migration.

Migration can be:

External

Internal

legal

Illegal

External migration-between countries

Internal migration-between regions.

An important source in the literature of this talks about the migration from the rural areas to the urban

ones in the developing countries. The explanatory variable of the migration rate from the source areas is

the importance of locating the family and friends in the target areas. Studies show that business owners

have turned to relatives to recruit cheap work force from other area or country. The success of the

migration of one member of the family creaes a chain of opportunities for the whole network of relatives.

Legal migration

before 1989

• migration for ethnic reasons (its increase because of the deterioration of life conditions)

after 1989

• the doubling of Romanian and female emigrants, wherefrom it follows that Romania is an

emigration country because of the decrease of its population.

Illegal migration

Because of the worsening of regulations in the Western countries, legal migration has started to

decrease, while illegal migration started to increase. over 30% of the illegal migration is based on slave

and work force trade which has a negative impact on the human development.3

Romania has also playd the role of transit country for the illegal emigrant from former Yugoslavia

and former Soviet Union, countries with a really frightening development in the slave trade networks.

The forms of illegal migration are:

permanent

temporary

circular

3 Rotariu,Traian,Demografia si sociologia populatiei.Fenomene demografice .Iasi,Ed Polirom,2003

3

The measurements are incomplete but there are suppossed to be 2 million Romanian abroad on

temporary jobs (approx. 10% of the Romanian population). There are huge differences between the

official and the real data, because they comprises only a part of the legal migration for work, as many

Romanians work illegally at first and afterwards sign a work contract.

The Implications of Migration on Human Development

The perspective migration has on international migration as final reshuffle is just a part of the

diversity of the migration phenomenon. The globalization processes speeded up the tendency of

movement within the international space and the ever growing tendency of migration control. From this

point of view, migration can be:

• final migration

• clandestine migration

• circular migration 'suitcase migration’

• transnationalism

• refugees and asylants

If, after 1990, migration was determined by searches and experiments, today we can talk about trips

for reasons fo commerce in the nighbouring countries, migration for work, but also ethnic migration. The

visa suspension has triggered an increase in clandestine migration, but also a hardening of contractual

changes of the work force (signing bilateral agreements with varius countries).

Today, in 2008, we can include:

• the migration of Romanian workers on the basis of a temporary contract

• the migration to work illegally in the constructions’ field

• the migration to re-unite the family.

• the migration for studies (based on incentives from the country of origin and from the destination

country).

Considering the fact that the emigrants are young people and that the number of Romanian female

emigrants is bigger that those of male emigrants, we can assert that migration affect the groups with high

fertility rates, being able to reduce the number of new-borns (especially if migration becomes permanent).

The specialists hve also shown that the separation of children from their parents for long periods leads to

feelings of abandonment, unfulfillment of emotional and communication needs –which have a negative

4

impact on the present and future personality of the child, can lead to school absences, poor school results,

indiscipline, frustrations, autoisolation, depression, suicide.4

Migration has an important effect on reducing the unemployment rate, but creates an imbalance in the

internal work market (the deficit of construction workers).

The problem of the integration in the destination countries is a very delicate one, as the Romanian

workers undergo discrimination problems and the access to social insurances is limited.

The loss of work force for the country of origin. Where there is a surplus in the work force, migration

will be a means of relieving the pressures of unemployment. The big problems are when the number of

available jobs remains the same or increases, without the migration decreasing-the work force deficit in

the country of origin. The gaps in the work force market should put pressure on the increase in salaries,

which would stimulate the people to stay in the reference place.

Despite these negative aspects, migration has positive effects:

money transfer

cultural exchanges

This positive impact can also be given by immigration in our country, but this does not have high

figures.

What will happen to the migration pohenomenin in the future?-a very difficult to control phenomenon.

There are no significant contingents of work forces for migration, so that there will not be significant

migrations of the Romanians.

As for the migration of those in the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine-it is expected to have

positive effects on the economy.

An alarming situation is that of the Romanian students who study in the EU and that will probably

remain in those countries after thay have finished their studies.

A complete approach of this problem supposses:

the elaboration of coherent internal policies

interstate collaboration

the settlement of bilateral agreements

The implications of money tranfers

At a macroeconomic level

• the immediate impact of money transfers on the househols expenditure (expenditure

increases, the NGP rises), but these transfers ffect both investments and earning.

• money transfers can lead to the rise of the currency of the destination country (Romania)

on the condition that the affluxes are high-the negative influence on exports.

4 Sandu, Dumitru,Migratia transnationala a romanilor din perspectiva unui recensamant comunitar,2002

5

An international study conducted by the IMF showed that there is no iportant connection between the

sums of money that are sent and the economic development of a country. Only by investing moeny in

education and health to increase the human capital will lead to the economic development in the long

term. The transfers from abroad can contribute indirectly to increasing the rhythm of econi\omic growth by

the negative impact it can have on the work force.

At a microeconomic level

The increase in the expenditure per household-temporary decrease in poverty. We should know the

profile of the beneficiaries in roder to establish where the received money go.

Migration is a consolidation of the currency reserve, but also a source of inflation; the usage of the

money received from migration for consumption to the detriment of investments that generate profit-in this

cases, the real beneficiaries of the money received from abroad would not be the immigrants directly, but

indirectly, the services and good providers, that the emigrants buy.

The definitive migration of the over-qualified is not associated with the behaviour of sending the

money to the origin country.

Migration for work does not involve individuals with high levels of education (therefore, it is not

associated with the accumulation of big money reserves). As one gets a legal status in the destination

country, which is associated with a better and more secure position and bigger incomes, the migration of

the family takes place, thus diminishing the earning behaviour.

The phenomenon of international migration has repercussions bith in the development of the country

of origin and on that of the destination countryl most of the theories on migration explicitly and implicitly

refer to the development lag between the origin and destination space. there are two directions on which

the Romanian researchers focus:

a rich literature that speaks about different types of migration (qualitative changes of this

phenomenon)

the diversification of migration; the evaluation effort of the depth of this phenomenon being quite

weak.

Migration has an important role in the contemporary social transformations. It is both the result of

global changes and a force for the future changes in the origin states,, but also in the destination states.

The impact can be felt especially at the economic level, but it also affects the work field, as well as society,

culture, the national policies, international relations, eventuallyl leading to a cultural diversity in all the

states.

Thus, migration has a series of both positive and negativr consequences for the destination countries,

but especially for the origin countries. On the one hand, in the origin country, migration reduces the

imbalances on the work market because the unemployment rate decreases and the wages raise. At the

same time, there are new factors of economic growth: the transfer of the emigrants’ incomes and the

6

improved work experience of those who return. On the other hand, in the destination country, the reserve

of human resources increases, which leads to the slow-down of the raises in salaries and the capital raise.

In each country, even in the develioped ones, there are fields where hiring native workers is not wanted

anymore, because the native worker rejects unattractive job offers. Thus, the foreign workers

becomefactors of economic stability by accepting underpaid jobs. The surplus of work force does not only

lead to the improvement of offers on the work market, but also to the increase of consumption, which

leads to the increase of NGP and the improvements of life.

The negative consequences are numerous, both for the emigrant and for his family. Leaving the family

can have negative effects on the ducation of the children or on the future evolution of the family, as the

number of women that emigrate is higher and higher. Where the emigrant is concerned, he is willing to

compromise on the type of activity he is to have abroad considering his education and qualifications-and

on returning home, the ceasing of the specialised activity cand have a negative impact on the professional

continuity-so there is a loss for the origin country as well, since it cannot benefit from the results of the

investments in the formation of human resources.

The emigrants are often faced with other problems such as:5 ignorance of their rights and the

opportunities they have abroad; they can also lack all the information on the work conditions in the

destination state, thus becoming victims of the slave trade.

The current profile of the Romanians that migrate for work

worker, low of medium level of qualification, age 25-35, from the Center, Western, Southern and

South-Eastern part of the country.

50% from the rural area

The deliveries can be a demoralizing factor on the work market. The social costs of migration and

surpassed by the effects produced by deliveries (emigrant-mothers-children left home with other members

of the family with negative consequences on thir physical, emotional health and on the education

performance; young emigrants-ageing of the population). With the integration of Romania in the EU, the

deliveries may stop due to the establishment of the emigrants with their families abroad.

the 'brain drain’-the exodus of the experts with a high level of education.

Not all the expert emigrants can be included in the brain drain, but only those who continue to work in

these areas and fields. It is hard for Romania to develop some efficient policies to maintain the work force.

This leads to the waste of inteligence-the phenomenon of under-usage. A good policy would be the

exchange of specialists between the EU countries-thus, a country of origin can become a provider of

emigrants, but at the same time the destination country could be a provider of immigrants.

5 Sandu, Dumitru,Migratia transnationala a romanilor din perspectiva unui recensamant comunitar,2002

7

The benefits of the origin countries can become real with the policies to attract emigrants by giving

them adequate conditions in which the specialists can bring new comeptences, thus bringing foreign

capital afflux.

It is necessary to elaborate some coherent policies destined for the research, development, innovation

sectors, thus creating quality jobs, that can attract the potential top specialists.

The Social Consequences of Migration in Romania after 1990

In a study coordinated by Prof. D. Sandu in 2006 on temporary migration for work of Romanians

abroad it is shown that in Romania, this phenomenon had a great development (after 1993, 1/3 of the

households have at least one member in another vountry). From the same study, we learn that temporary

migration in predominant amount young people. There are, as we have shown, a series of economical,

political, demographic, cultural, religious effects, that have an impact both in the origin and in the

destination country.

Long-term effects are produced by migration espcially in the demographic area. As the specialists

point out, Romania is defined by a decline in the number of population and in its structure. What caused

these effects are the demographic processes, such as birth rate, fetility, marriages, divorces and

migration.

L. Urse interprets for this purpose the demographic markers on a period of ten years

Demographic markers in the period 1990-2000

Demographic markers Year 1990(%) Year 2000(%)Birth rate 13,6 10,5Death rate 10,6 11,4Infant death rate 26,9 18,6Natural growth 3 -0,9Marriage rate 8,3 6,1Divorce rate 1,42 1,32

Source: L.Urse (2001)

This table shows:

the decrease in borth rate and the increase in death rate

a negative natural growth (-0,9 in 2000)

tendency of ageing of the population

the marrage rate in decreasing, which affects birth rate.

8

The external migration of the population has increased after the year 2000, because of various

factors: the emergence of work force deficit in some European countries, free movement within the

Schengen space, the increase of unemployment parallel with the decrease of life average.

The migration of population causes demographic effects wutihin the country as well. In an article

written in 1997, V. Ghetau mentions two positive effects of this tyoe of migration:

the rural area enriches culturally from the migration of a highly educated population from the

urban area

there is also an improvement of the sge structure of the rural population from the migration of the

young population from the urban area

This effects emerge after the year 1995, when the rural area gets more children than it offers.

However, external migration makes the 'rural area be hit by an exodus of adult population, especially of

women between 25 and 55 years.’ (Badescu Ilie, 2005, 37)

Therefore, it is alarming that the population is decreasing and that the age and sex structure of the

population undegoes a continuous degradation.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Dictionary of Sociology-OXFORD, Bucharest, 2003.

2. Raportul national al dezvoltarii umane, Romania, 2007 (Institutul National de Statistica).

3. Anghel Remus, Milano Centrale. Status ilegal, piete de munca si practici transnationale la migrantii

romani din Milano, 2005.

4. Badescu, Ilie. Sociodemografia lumii rurale in Romania, in Europa Centrala si Eurasia. Sociologie

Romaneasca,vol III, 4, 2005.

5. Diminescu, Dana Deplasarile osenilor in strainatate, un nou model de migratie,1996.

6. Rotariu, Traian, Demografia si sociologia populatiei. Fenomene demografice .Iasi, Polirom Publishing

House, 2003.

7. Sandu, Dumitru, Migratia transnationala a romanilor din perspectiva unui recensamant comunitar,

2002.

8. Sandu, Dumitru (coord) (2006) Locuirea temporara in strainatate. Bucharest, Fundatia pentru o

societate deschisa Publishing House.

9. Urse, Laureana. Este nevoie de o politica demografica in Romania? Calitatea vietii, XII, 1-4, 2001.

10. Zamfir, Catalin, Stoica Laura, O noua provocare –Dezvoltarea sociala, Polirom Publishing House,

2006.

9

THE STATISTICAL ANALYZE OF SOME SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTINDICATORS BY USING THE SINGULAR VALUES

Poliana Stefanescu1 Stefan Stefanescu2

University of Bucharest

1- Faculty of Sociology and Social Work

2 - Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science

We propose a methodology to establish an hierarchy between given environment

and socio-economic indicators.

The classification difficulty arises from the presence of many attributes which should

be evaluated together. In this context we decompose the frequencies matrix of the indicators

into singular values to define new aggregate coefficients. This method allows a suggestive

unidimensional and bidimensional graphical representations of the clusters.

The decomposition procedure was applied for classifying 14 known indicators from

socio-human field.

1. THE PROBLEM FORMULATION

We intend to establish an hierarchy for 14 socio-economic and environment indicators by using

the subjective marks received from the individuals of a specified population.

We'll partially depict some aspects of a research started in 2003 and concerning the diagnosis of

the quality of life ( Institute for the Quality of Life - Romanian Academy ). The data were collected by using

a questionnaire which imposed a national survey with more than 1000 subjects. The research analyzed

the behavior of about 200 social and economic coefficients.

In the subsequent we'll present some methodological aspects by selecting only 14 environment

and socio-economic variables. The significance of the coefficients A-N is given in Table 1.

A comparative statistical study will emphasize the quantitative but also the qualitative differences

which exist in Romania between the urban and rural environment.

A statistical analysis concerning the volatility of the indicators A-N will later be detailed by a similar

study on various particular subgroups of the initial population. We mention here the men and the women

- 1 / 8 -

subsets, different ethnic groups ( Romanian and Magyar people ), the behavior of the age categories, the

influence of the school performances or the current professional activity of the respondents.

Table 1. Indicators A-N ( questionnaire CV2003 ).

A. Individual healthB. Family relationsC. Individual householdD. The quality of the environment E. Work conditionsF. Relations with your neighbors G. Family incomeH. Access to drink water in your communityI. Health services received in your communityJ. The police activity in your communityK. The quality of the education in your community L. The information received through mass –media (press, radio, television)M. The quality of public transport in your communityN. The current possibility to spend your free time (recreation facilities)

2. THE SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS

Our statistic study is based on the results given by a national representative sample E which has

1018 individuals. The sample was designed in the spring of 2003 at the Institute for the Quality of Life -

Romanian Academy ( ICCV ).

At the questions A-N the questionnaire mentioned the following possible answers :

R1. “Very bad” – code 1 ; R2. “Bad” - code 2 ; R3. “Satisfactory” - code 3 ;

R4. “Good” - code 4 ; R5. “Very good” - code 5 ; NR. NonRespondent ; NC. Not the Case .

Table 2 presents the frequencies for the answers R1-R5 taking into consideration all the 1018

persons from the whole sample E .

In this paper we will emphasize the differences of perception for the people which lives in the

rural and the urban localities too. It is pursuing the subjective importance given by the community to the

questions A-N . For every query it was computed the percents values at the answers R1-R5 . All these

details are summarized in Table 3.

Table 2. The frequence response for the indicators A-N ( the whole sample ).

Total R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 NR NCA 84 205 306 343 80 0 0B 7 16 101 590 262 1 41C 23 57 251 585 100 2 0

D 29 128 256 508 87 10 0E 23 87 163 208 34 61 442F 10 19 112 688 179 10 0G 162 343 342 153 10 8 0H 75 187 199 480 66 11 0I 37 122 300 483 59 17 0J 31 83 311 508 51 34 0K 11 77 207 566 73 84 0L 10 66 248 588 77 29 0M 74 199 247 403 38 57 0N 101 245 304 294 27 47 0

Table 3. The percents of the answers R1-R5 at the questions A-N considering the urban and the rural localities ( the NR and NC responses are neglected ).

Ind. R1 R2 R3 R4 R5ur ru ur ru ur ru ur ru ur ru

A 0.052 0.118 0.169 0.238 0.297 0.305 0.400 0.265 0.083 0.074B 0.006 0.009 0.006 0.029 0.096 0.112 0.581 0.632 0.311 0.217C 0.018 0.027 0.052 0.061 0.229 0.268 0.596 0.553 0.105 0.091D 0.041 0.015 0.184 0.062 0.323 0.175 0.416 0.606 0.037 0.143E 0.041 0.050 0.132 0.219 0.294 0.347 0.459 0.329 0.074 0.055F 0.011 0.009 0.013 0.026 0.106 0.118 0.680 0.686 0.191 0.162G 0.120 0.207 0.312 0.371 0.368 0.305 0.187 0.111 0.013 0.006H 0.084 0.064 0.177 0.195 0.198 0.197 0.465 0.490 0.076 0.053I 0.045 0.028 0.118 0.126 0.309 0.289 0.464 0.503 0.064 0.054J 0.046 0.015 0.108 0.058 0.323 0.308 0.475 0.563 0.048 0.056K 0.016 0.007 0.074 0.093 0.225 0.217 0.612 0.599 0.074 0.084L 0.007 0.013 0.061 0.073 0.206 0.304 0.616 0.569 0.109 0.040M 0.060 0.096 0.179 0.239 0.274 0.239 0.444 0.392 0.044 0.035N 0.085 0.127 0.207 0.307 0.307 0.320 0.354 0.241 0.047 0.005

We remark here that the sample E has 475 persons from a rural environment ( that is 46.7 % )

and 543 individuals living in the urban localities ( 53.3 % ).

Analyzing the percents from Table 3 we observe significant differences regarding the individual

opinion in the urban and in the rural communities. Taking into consideration the whole held information

( the possibility of 5 types of answers ) it is very hard to evaluate quantitatively the distinct perception

manner of the problems A-N from a subpopulation which live in a rural or in an urban environment.

3. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS

To obtain a classification concerning the importance allotted by the people to the problems A-N, it

- 3 / 8 -

is absolutely necessary to measure the similarity and dissimilarity levels between the “objects” A-N which

belong to a space S . In fact the set S includes all possible distributions which could be obtained from the

questionnaire answers. In this context it were used diverse "distance" and "similarity" coefficients adjusted

to the domain S.

We remark that in the specialized literature are known a lot of similarity measures and also many

types of “distances” ( see for example [4] ).

For this research, in the initial phase, it was used only the Euclidean distance ( [4] ). The concrete

structure of the data and the specific combination of the old groups to produce the new ones impose

different other types of "distances". Often it imposed that the selected similarity measures must remain

“nearly invariant” when we build some particular classes.

If we consider the different variants of the answers R1-R5 , every indicator A-N could be regarded

as a point in the space S = R5 ( see also [1] ). For this approach we neglected In Table 3 the answer

variants NR and NC.

Since it is very difficult to have a graphical image of the points A-N which belong to the space S =

R5 , it is necessary to find a "projection function" from the 5-dimensional space S inside an unidimensional

R space. This projection application must preserve, as much as possible, the "similarity rapports" between

all the objects A-N ( more details in [3], [4], [10] ).

Essentially, the unidimensional space R is characterized by an appropriate combination of the

significant attributes of the objects A-N. The selection of the essential "factors" which characterize the

distribution of the indexes A-N is, in our case, based on the singular values approach ( see also [8], [9] ).

The projection functions used to reduce the dimension of S do not preserve the old origin of the

Cartesian coordinate system and in the same time do not retain neither the “positive sense" on the new

coordinate axis ( [2], [6], [7], [9] ).

Therefore, after the approximation of the space S with an unidimensional metric space it is

absolutely indispensable to establish “the positive direction” in this new representation. We mention here

that "the positive sense" has a subjective meaning which must be in concordance with the concrete

interpretations of the data set ( [8], [9] ). In practice the term "positive" is relatively, being defined by the

multiple correlations between the implied entities.

Taking into consideration the structure of the A-N group of coefficients we decided to choose the

point O(100, 300, 400, 300, 100) as the origin of the 5-dimensional space R5 . The selected point O ,

being characterized by a symmetric distribution, represents a relative equilibrium state.

Though we must remark that the proposed selection of the point O as origin in the

multidimentional space S = R5 could be controversial for the studied population.

Indeed, the distribution (100, 300, 400, 300, 100) which characterizes the coordinates of the origin

O is not interpreted as a "standard variant" in all situations. More precisely, the distribution of O represents

a stable equilibrium state only if we accept as "extremely positive" the variant when 0.33 % from the

individuals of the analyzed population have "bad" or "very bad" life conditions and another 0.33 percents

of persons have "good" and eventually "very good" ambient environment factors ( to interpret the

imposed distribution of the point O selected as a reference origin of the data ).

Concluding, the graphics 1 and 2 which use the point O as an origin for the system of coordinates

depict “more optimistic” the reality perceived by the population.

Since, sometimes we have a lot of NR and NC cases which vary depending on the questions A-N,

we preferred to express the distributions of the indicators A-N by using the percents and not the absolute

frequencies.

In our case the unidimensional reduction of the initial space S to R is extremely accurate. So, we

got a precision coefficient equal to 0.955 ( see the computation formulas from [8] and [9] ).

Concluding, if is used an unidimensional depiction of the indices A-N , the proportion of the lost

initial information concerning the relations between the objects A-N from R5 is very small, that is about

0.045 .

4. THE IMPORTANCE OF A-N INDICATORS

Applying the singular values procedure ( details in [8] and [9] ) we obtain the unidimensional

coordinates of the A-N indices. These coordinates are listed in Table 4 .

The data from Table 4 permit us a comparative study, on the urban and rural localities, regarding

the indicators A-N ( see Graphic 1 ). The Graphic 1 has the major inconvenience of an "individual

representation" for the indices A-N, without having in mind the whole imagine of the all reciprocal relations

between the analyzed variables. Taking into consideration the previous mentioned aspect we suggested

the Graphic 2 representation. This imagine have a significant improvement for permitting us to establish

an hierarchy of all the implied variables.

Table 4. The unidimensional coordinates of the indicators A-N

( we considered the origin O(1,3,4,3,1) ).

A B C D E F GTotal 0.04712 0.16749 0.19038 0.14766 0.09829 0.22359 -0.06553Rural -0.00072 0.18742 0.17887 0.18971 0.05840 0.22639 -0.10184Urban 0.09042 0.15412 0.20227 0.11034 0.12949 0.22388 -0.03357

H I J K L M NTotal 0.11381 0.14485 0.17037 0.20686 0.20616 0.09255 0.02935Rural 0.12540 0.15652 0.19792 0.20100 0.20291 0.07013 -0.00728Urban 0.10498 0.13589 0.14634 0.21349 0.21113 0.11454 0.06129

- 5 / 8 -

Graphic 1. The perception of the indicators A-N ( rural and urban localities ).

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N

Indicatori

Unid

imen

sion

al v

alue

s

Rural Urban

Interpreting in Graphic 2 the positions of the points A-N we could assert with certitude the

existence of some major differences between the rural and urban environment. To pursue, for example,

the behavior of the variables G, N, A or E .

All these mentioned differences are not so pertinent in Graphic 1.

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

Indicator values

0

1

2

3

4

1 = Total 2 = Rural 3 = UrbanGraphic 2. The classification of the indicators A-N

A B CDE FG H I J KLMN

A BC DE FG H I JKLMN

A B CD E FG H I J KLMN

5. CONCLUSIONS

- The present statistical approach is validated indirectly since the Graphics 1 and 2 confirm many

intuitive and practical aspects.

- The proposed mathematical procedure, based on the use of the singular values decomposition,

gives us additional quantitative and qualitative information concerning the effective values of the

differences between the 14 studied indicators. More, we remark here that the point representation in

Graphic 2 is very accurate and approximates extremely well the "distances" between the real distributions

of the indicators A-N.

- The advantage for obtaining a good graphical representation is incontestable since in this case

we have a general image of the whole multiple interdependent relations between the variables A-N.

- Graphic 2 suggests us new statistical hypothesis which will be validated for any other subgroups

of the initial population ( for example to get new hierarchical classifications depending on the age or on the

academic qualification of the individuals, to compare the ethnic opinions ).

- The present study will be extended by considering a structural approach. A lot of new other

socio-economic and environment indicators will be taken into account. More, all these indices will be

- 7 / 8 -

grouped into several classes as : material aspects ( MA ), public services ( PS ), life conditions ( LC ),

environment factors ( EF ), inter-human relations ( IR ). The new classes could have a similar approach

as A-N indicators.

REFERENCES

[1]. Alan Agresti, An introduction to categorical data analysis. Wiley – Wiley Series in Probability

and Statistics, New York, 1996.

[2]. David J. Bartholomew, Fiona Steele, Irini Moustaki, Jane I. Galbraith, The analysis and

interpretation of multivariate data for social scientists. Chapman & Hall – Texts in Statistical Science,

London, 2002.

[3]. Brian S. Everitt, Sabine Landau, Morven Leese, Cluster analysis. Arnold – Hodder Headline

Group, London, 2001 ( fourth edition ).

[4]. Keinosuke Fukunaga, Statistical pattern recognition. Academic Press, New York, 1990.

[5]. Roger A. Horn, Charles R. Johnson, Matrix analysis.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,

1985.

[6]. Joseph B. Kruskal, Myron Wish, Multidimensional scaling. Sage University Paper, Series :

Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, London, 1991 ( seventeenth printing ).

[7]. H.T. Reynolds, Analysis of nominal data. Sage University Paper, Series : Quantitative

Applications in the Social Sciences, London, 1984 ( second edition ).

[8]. Stefan Stefanescu, Using the singular value procedure to solve a marketing problem. Studii si

Cercetari de Calcul Economic si Cibernetica Economica, vol. 38, 4(2004), 75-87 ( in Romanian ).

[9]. Poliana Stefanescu, Stefan Stefanescu, Applying the singular value decomposition to classify

socio-economic indicators. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, vol.

38, no. 1-4 (2004 ), 95-106.

[10]. Susan C. Weller, A. Kimball Romney, Metric scaling. Sage University Paper, Series :

Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, London, 1990.

Statistics analysis and modelling Romanian foreign balance of payments, 2000-2007

ENACHE CALCEDONIA, PhD Candidate

Hyperion University, Bucharest, [email protected]

The international economic relations represent a wide range of trade and financial connections that are able to link together economic agents having complementary aims and coming from different national economies. The sum of the “ feedback” and “ feedbefore” expansions between an economy and the worldwide economic environment is to be tendentiously found in the balance equilibrium of foreign payments, due to its main trade and financial parts, indicates permanent and in relatively simple terms the method whereby each economy pays the prices for making its own way through the international trade, and the national coin evolves on the currency market. Key words: balance of foreign payments, current account, foreign trade.

* * *

Romania’s balance of payments, taking as a starting point the year 2000, mirrored the worsening of the current account, due to the increase in the dynamic rate of the imports as well as to the larger imbalance under “good transports”. Domestic absorption registered a constant upward evolution in the whole analyzed period, the ratio between the investment and final consumption stayed flat on an average of about 26 percent. This evolution was determined by the private sector, under the conditions in which the governmental sector limited its demand for consumption, the saving, investment and current account balance equilibrium relationship mounting progressively from 3,3 percent of GDP in 2002 to 13,9 percent of GDP in 2007.

Table No. 1Romanian external sector, 2000-2007

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007- EUR million -

AbsorptionExportsImportsTrade balanceServices, net Income from abroad, netCurrent transfers, netCurrent account balance

4214451127313140-1867-260-304937,0-1494

484881272216045-3323-129

-315,01279,0-2488,0

511431467517427-2747

5-4881612-1623

542391561419569-3893

62-6231639-2877

644501893524258-5536-213-25352972-5099

876522225530061-7806-349-23263593-6888

1089092585037609-11759

4-32464845

-10156

1388532938046966-17856

265-44044853

-16872

Source: National Bank of Romanian’s Annual Reports ( 2000-2007), according to National Institute of Statistics, the National Trade Register Office, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, National Bank of Romania.

The trade deficit, of which share in GDP increased from 3,7 percent in 2000 to 14,5 percent in 2007 has influenced heavily the current account deficit. The trade gap widened over EUR 1598 million due to the slowing growth rate of exports towards the developing countries and to the still fast-paced imports. The coverage of imports through exports dropped by 23 percentage points, while the openness of the Romanian economy has had an upward trend soared to 62,9 percent in 2007, amid the removal of protectionist tariffs as well as Romania’s faster integration into the world trade. During the analyzed period, the annual average of exports was EUR 4624,59 million and it was increased by the partial subsidization of interest on export loans, the provision of guarantees for the export of complex products with a long production cycle, the relaxation of the industrial activities, the growth of the industrial products with a high level of processing in the total of the exported goods, the growth of the in-branch specialisation. The manufacturing industry supplied over 95 percent of Romania’s exports. The aspects concerning the seasonality presence in the evolution of the Romanian Export Trade are pointed at by the use of the Calot model, which relies on the following hypotheses: the general tendency is linear; the seasonality is at a stand-still; perturbation follows a normal distribution. Taking the linear form: yt =a0 +a1t + є, as a starting point, seasonality is hereby introduced into the model by dividing the parameter a0 into elements relating to the trend (A) and the constants sj, every single one for each annual sub period. The variable time “t” turns into a unit for which the sub periods j (month, trimesters) and the annual periods i: t=j+ih (where j= h,1 sub annual periods: i= )1(,0 −m years). Therefore, the regression equation becomes:

yj+ih =A +a1(j+ih)+sj + єj+ih ,

the estimating items ∧∧∧

jsAa ,,1come out as a result of the following calculus relations:

∑ −−=

∧

)()1(1

21

yyimma

i;

∧∧⋅+−= 12

1 amhyA ; 1)2

1(∧∧

⋅+−−−= ahjyys jj , where: =iy the sub

period (trimester, month) average in the year i; =y the sub period average reckoned under all data1.

The model Calot for the quarterly data has been applied regarding the export trade evolution in 2000-2007 and consequently the following equation has come out:

yj+ih = 3664,126 + 58,21(j+ih) + sj + єj+ih

_________________________________________________________________1) „Econometrics for…economists”, Economic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2005, page 113.

Table No. 2

The evolution of the Romanian exports and the seasonality constants, 2000-2007

Year

Exports ( EUR million)

T I T II T III T IV

Yearaverage

iy2000 2404,4 2505,4 2702,2 2754,3 2591,5752001 2873 2823,3 2966,6 2722,8 2846,4252002 2536,9 3057,9 3695,4 3882,7 3293,2252003 4316,3 4312,9 4070,2 4026 4181,352004 4325,4 4692 4945,5 4930,9 4723,452005 5087 5423,7 5917 5785,3 5553,252006 6218,2 6459,8 6492,8 6678,7 6462,3752007 7014,3 7163,7 7367,0 7835,3

Trimesteraverage

jy 4346,937 4554,838 4769,588 4827,00y = 4624,591

The seasonality constants -190,33 -40,65 115,89 115,09 ∑ = 0js

Source: Own calculations on the database from the Statistics Bulletins of Foreign Trade, NIS (2000-2007).

The seasonality constants point out that, on average, the amount of the exports good in the trimesters III and IV went above the long lasting tendency by EUR 115, 89 million, respectively by EUR 115, 09 million. As the dynamics of the European Union’s demand for imports goods slowed down, trimester I registered the lowest seasonality level following the customs – house duties, whilst over 49 percent of the returns came out of definitive exports goods. Regarding the import, the dynamics average rate amounted to 20,01 percent, being generated by: the international context, the structural movements into the national economy, the policy of customs measures implemented by authorities, the incentives granted to small and medium enterprises and investors (Law No. 133/1999 and Law No. 332/2001), the real appreciation of the ROL against the EUR. As far as the structure is concerned, four commodity groups have held the majority shares in total imports: machinery, equipment and transport means ( 29,83 percent); textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (17,88 percent); chemical and plastic products ( 13,43 percent); mineral products ( 13,38 percent). The geographical distribution shows that over 65 percent of the trade deficit was due to Russian Federation (43,45 percent) and the European Union ( 23,46 percent). From trade relations with the Republic of Moldova has been achieved a surplus of 4,24 percent.

The terms of net trade recorded a positive slope from 103,5 percent in 2000 to 101,5 percent in 2003, due to higher prices of commodities exported to the European Union. In the following years, at a constant level of 104 percent in GDP was maintained. Regarding the terms of gross trade the maximum in the analysis period was recorded in 2002, when it amounted to 102,1 percent as a result of the changes appeared in the structure of exports that happened in an unfavourable external environment.

In order to analyze the elasticity of the foreign trade regarding the modification of the exchange rate and also of the way in which this has influenced the balance of the current account, arc-type values obtained in 3 variants have been used:

a) 1

1

1

1 :−

−

−

− −−t

tt

t

tt

xxx

yyy ; b)

1

11

1

11 :−

−+

−

−+ −−t

tt

t

tt

xxx

yyy ; c)

1

12

1

12 :−

−+

−

−+ −−t

tt

t

tt

xxx

yyy ,

where yt represents the 2 month mean of the export/import in t period (for the last, next and future period t-1, t+1 and t+2 signs have been used).

Table No. 3

The arc type elasticity values calculated for Romania’s export and import

Period Average values for: Elasticity for:

Export ImportExchange Rate

RON/EUR Export ImportMay-June 01 864 1107 2,4821 July - Aug 01 877 999 2,6060 a). 0,30975 a). -1,95682Sep - Oct 01 863 1070 b). -0,01624 b). -0,67068Nov - Dec 01 800 1151 c). -1,46754 c). 0,801916Sep - Oct 02 1247 1512 3,2555 Nov - Dec 02 1296 1583 3,3915 a). 0,945601 a). 1,127065Jan - Feb 03 1379 1520 b). 2,533443 b). 0,120305Mar - Apr 03 1474 1816 c). 4,365126 c). 4,802689Sep - Oct 04 1716 2326 4,10735 Nov - Dec 04 1598 2604 3,9295 a). 1,589473 a). -2,75525Jan - Feb 05 1578 2020 b). 1,851245 b). 3,043187Mar - Apr 05 1860 2573 c). -1,94276 c). -2,45441Jan - Feb 06 1940 2640 3,59245 Mar - Apr 06 2106 3117 3,49925 a). -3,29982 a). -6,96927May –Jun 06 2294 3507 b). -7,03485 b). -12,6543July - Aug 06 2142 3407 c). -4,02914 c). -11,2066

Source: Own calculations on the database from the Statistics Bulletins of Foreign Trade, NIS (2000-2007).

The four points of major inflexion recorded by the evolution of the exchange rate RON/EUR during 2000-2007 did not have any significant effect on the current account deficit. The condition of the MLR proposed by the economic theory according to which the improvement of the balance of payment takes place when the sum of elasticises in its absolute value, regarding both foreign trade flows is over unitary was totally verified in the last interval. Thus the elasticity taken together summed at about 3,67, respectively 5,62 for one period of being late and 7,18 for two period of being late.

The export was more receptive at the variation of the exchange course but the degree of elasticity remained low because of the limited capacity of the operators of the foreign trade to rapidly enter the more advantageous markets.

The import was less flexible at the modification of the exchange rate the rating of the national currency leading to raising the value of entering in absolute terms but generating a reduction of the rhythm of dynamics. Since 2001, the deficit of the income balance had a devaluation accentuated from EUR 315 million to EUR 324,6 million in 2006, under the reduction of the direct investment and under the payment of interest pertaining to loans in the medium as well as long term. In 2007, the income balance reached on a EUR 440,4 million deficits, higher 35,6 percent from the previous year, due to the increasing of compensation of EUR 294 million of the employees. The widening of the current account deficit was offset by the positive performance of the current transfer balance, which showed mirrored a surplus of EUR 485,3 million in 2007, especially on account of foreign money inflows. Starting from the economic identity relation: VNDt = Et + TCt, according to Keynes theory, I suggest the next structural form:

+=++=ttt

ttt

TCEVNDubVNDaE

where: Et = the value of the export in the t year;TCt = the volume of the current transfers in the t year;VNDt = gross national disposable income in the t year;ut = the random variable;a,b = the parameters of the econometric model which are due to be estimated.

By applying the method of the smallest squares in the structural model, the estimators of the parameters ∧∧

ba, model are obtained:

2)(min),( tt

t VNDbaEbaF ⋅−−= ∑∧∧

∑ ∑=+⇒=∧∧

tt EVNDbanaF 0)('

∑∑ ∑ =+⇒=∧∧

tttt VNDENDVbVNDabF 2' 0)( ,

resulting: 2196,0;205,3708 ==∧∧ba .

The estimated model becomes: tt VNDE ⋅+=

∧2196,0205,3708

In order to verify the truth of the model the following hypothesis are formulated:

H0: unvalued statistic model, with the alternative H1: valid statistic model.

The statistics used to decide which of the hypothesis is accepted is:

2

2/

ucalc

ssF VNDE=

The estimator of the systematic dispersion is calculated with the relation:

6,283284045)( 22

2 // =

−=∆= ∑

∧

kEE

ks tVNDE

VNDE

The estimator of the dispersion of the residue is determined as:

64,15377731)(

1

222 =

−−−

=−−

∆= ∑∧

kTEE

kTs tu

u

The estimator of the variable dispersion E is:

5,417872121

)( 22 =

−−

= ∑T

EEs t

E

The theoretical value for a significance threshold α=0,05 and 1, respectively 6 degrees of freedom, taken from the Fisher distribution table, is Fα;k;T-k-1=5,99. Since Fcalc

= 184,22 > Fα;k;T-k-1 , H0 is rejected, inanely it consider that model is valid. The interference for the parameters of the regression model is made by estimating these on the intervals of trust and testing the statistic hypothesis.

For the parameter a, the tested hypotheses are:

≠=

0:0:

1

0

aHaH

a

a

The t statistics is: 11,3==∧

∧

a

ac s

at , where 13,1193))(

1(2

22

1 =−

+=∑

∧∧

VNDVNDVND

nss

tu

a

9841,0)(

12

21

=−

−=

∑∑

EE

uR

t

t

For a significant threshold of 5 percent, the theoretical value of the t test is tα/2;6

= 2,447. Because tc > tα/2;6 , it is established that the free term is significantly statistic. For the parameter a, the trust interval is given by:

∧∧ ⋅+≤≤⋅− −

∧

−

∧

anaT staasta 2,2/2,2/ αα

0,021 ≤ a ≤ 788,71

For the b parameter, the tested hypotheses are:

≠=

0:0:

1

0

bHbH

b

b

The t statistics is: 57,13==∧

∧

b

bc s

bt , where the square medium of the variable

residue is calculated with the relation: 219,01

1 21

2

1=

−−= ∑∧ tu

ukn

s , and the square

medium deviation of the estimator: 016,0)( 2

1 =−

=∑

∧

∧

VNDVND

ss

t

u

b.

For a significant threshold of 5 percent, the theoretical value of the t test is tα/2;6

= 2,447. Because tc > tα/2;6 it is considered that b parameter is significantly different to zero. The trust interval for the b parameter is given by:

∧∧ ⋅+≤≤⋅− −

∧

−

∧

bnbT stbbstb 2,2/2,2/ αα

0,18 ≤ b ≤ 0,259

In order to measure the intensity of the relationship between the variables, the correlation report is used and also the testing of the significant is made with the help of the Fisher – Snedecor test:

The theoretical value for a significance threshold α=0,05 and 1, respectively 6 degrees of freedom, taken from the Fisher distribution table, is Fα;k;T-k-1=5,99. Since Fcalc

= 184,22 > Fα;k;T-k-1 , H0 is rejected, inanely it consider that R it is statistically significant. After an analysis of the acquired results it has been ascertained that the model is fit for service, which explains for 96,84 percent of the whole rise and fall of the endogenous variable. Applying the t test in order to control the significance of the

21,1841

)1( 2

2=

−−−=

RRkTFcalc

parameters, makes it obvious that these ones are statistically significant; the same statement is upheld by the limiting values of the credibility periods which have the same sign. The marginal rate of the exports shows that in 2000-2007, under a rise of EUR 1 million of the available national income, the Romanian exports went up by EUR 0,2196 million. Throughout the analyzed period, the current account deficit was subsidized over 80 percent by the net entering of direct investments, as the most significant capital inflows were due to the privatization of the National Company RomTelecom, the Romanian Development Bank, the “Automobile Dacia Pitesti”, the Romanian Commercial Bank and SNP Petrom. Among the most important investors there have been: Ispat Sidex, Raiffesein Bank, Daewoo, Colgate Palmolive, whilst, according the social capital criterion of mentioned above, the main investing countries have been: Netherlands, Austria, France, Germany and Italy.

Conclusions:

The Romanian economic and financial environment has lately recorded a noticeable progress, yet the gaps in comparison with some Central European countries are still considerable in some aspects. The Romanian foreign balance of payments showed a progressive worsening of the current account from 3,3 percent in GDP in 2002 to 13,9 percent in GDP in 2007. Despite the fact that the economics theory suggests keeping the deficit up at most 6 percent in GDP, the experience of some new states joining the European Union, has emphasized that, as the outside credibility grew and the economic performances improved, the amount of the capital investments which is the main source of support for the import goods raised, which lead to the going down the current account. Although now over 90 percent of the financial account is being covered up by direct and portfolio investments, still the relatively high level of the current account deficit needs not being given additional impulses that are correlated with the growth of the public and private consumption.

Bibliography:

1. Begu L. - International Statistics, ASE Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003.

2. Biji E., Wagner P., Lilea E., Petcu N.

- Statistics, Didactics and Pedagogical Publishing House, Bucharest, 1999.

3. Isaic Maniu A., Mitrut C., Voineagu V.

- Statistics for Business Management, Economic Publishing House, Bucharest, 1999.

4. Pecican E. - Econometrics for…economists, Economic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2005.

5 * * * www.bnro.ro

http://www.bnro.ro/

Risk Management in economy – firm performanceAndrei – Mihai Cristea, Tiberiu Diaconescu

Hyperion University Bucharest

[email protected]

Abstract: There are many terms which describe from one or another perspective, a larger plane around the concept of rest, without being necessary valid the consensus on the differences of meaning between them: uncertainty, indetermination, ambiguity. The indetermination offers an image regarding the main limits of determining a phenomenon, the unpredictable objective character of it. The ambiguity refers to the inability of the subjects to determine clearly the significance of the situations where they will act. The uncertainty term is used to designate the limited ability of our knowledge, whether this limitation comes from indetermination for the approximate character of the information which exists at a certain moment.

Keywords: risk, uncertainty, balance, quantification

Risk management is the activity through which the management of the risks in

an organization is done. The purpose of risk management is optimizing the exposure to

risk. This way loss prevention can be obtained, avoiding serious threats and valuable

opportunities can be exploited knowingly.

The balance between avoiding major risks and using opportunities is the

“golden” key towards financial success. Risk management begins with risk analysis.

Risk analysis is an evaluation of risks which can affect the company. It begins

with identifying the threats, meaning an inventory, as accurate as possible, of all the

predictable threats. It is very important not to be overlooked any kind of threats, and for

that reason is important using exhaustive control lists.

Once the threats are known, the probability of manifestation must be calculated

(the occurrence) and the seriousness of the impact they could have on the organization.

Because future events have a certain degree of uncertainty, estimating the probability of

materialization is done with an error margin.

In businesses, most decisions are made in conditions of risk and uncertainty.

From the investment in the shares of a stock exchange quoted firm to the decision to

launch a new product or the construction of an ample project of infrastructure is

1

necessary knowing the risk. It appeared and developed – most of all in the last decade –

an analysis system, meant to help managers in process of making decisions, to lead to

the consolidation of a risk industry. In the academic plane the theoretic fundaments

which are at the base of this evolution determined the forming of interdisciplinary

branches – the risk management.

The analysis process of risk is not as new as the developing phenomenon of the

risk industry in the last ten years. Its recent evolution is due to liberalizing trade (the

appearance of a “global status”) which facilitates the access to new markets (so new

risks) especially the technological developments which eases the measuring of the risk.

If globalization meant increasing the complexity of the risks, the technological

revolution allowed their more efficient management.

Realizing the firm’s objectives involves knowing and assuming multiple risks.

The risk management process includes three phases: identifying risks, risk analysis and

risk reaction. Identifying the risk is done through making up some control lists,

organizing risks identifying meetings and analyzing the archived documents. Risk

analysis uses methods such as: determining the expected value, Monte Carlo simulation

when you and decision-making processes. The risk reaction includes measures and

actions to reduce, eliminate or share risk.

The risk concept

There are many terms which describe from one or another perspective, a larger

plane around the concept of rest, without being necessary valid the consensus on the

differences of meaning between them: uncertainty, indetermination, ambiguity. The

indetermination offers an image regarding the main limits of determining a

phenomenon, the unpredictable objective character of it. The ambiguity refers to the

inability of the subjects to determine clearly the significance of the situations where

they will act. The uncertainty term is used to designate the limited ability of our

knowledge, whether this limitation comes from indetermination for the approximate

character of the information which exists at a certain moment.

We call risk the uncertainty associated to any result. The uncertainty can refer to

the probability of appearance of an event or to the influence, the effect of an event in the

case it takes place. The risk appears when:

2

ˇ an event takes place by itself but its result is uncertain;

ˇ the effect of an event is known but the appearance of the event is uncertain;

ˇ both the event and its effect are uncertain.

The risk and be considered the more or less aware assuming of the results of the

made choice. It doesn’t refer to the frailty of the knowledge, but to the probability of

success or failure of the action performed based on a decision. The risk can come from

the indetermination (the inexistence of information) of the results of the action, or from

the ambiguous character of the information we have at a given time.

From the perspective of an economic agent the risk is expressed through the

number which shows the dispersion or the volatility of a certain average.

The Risk Waters Group1, a subsidiary of the JP Morgan2 Company, defines risk

management as the control and delimitation of risks on organization is confronted with

following the exposures to the variable exchanges on the market.

Innovative facial documents of the Basel Committee is considered that the

situations leading to risk exposure of an organization can appear due to the financial

impact of one of the market variables (the market risk), due to the fact that the

organization is not ready to respond to such threats (the operational risk), because of the

payments inability of a partner (credit risk) or following the fact that a certain contract

is not valid (legal risk).

Risk management is a cyclic process, with many distinct phases: identifying the

risk, risk analysis and risk reaction.

If we will observe all the development initiatives of a risk discipline we can say

that, generally, through risk management is followed the construction of an apparatus to

permit first of all the identification and the quantification of risks in order to, according

to the attitude towards risk, make a decision regarding the ignoring, the assuming or

avoiding of them in the future.

The identification depends a lot on the informational system. The quality of the

information the company has can be improved by increasing research expenses (for

example, a researcher regarding finding out the probable market share of a certain

products in a certain geographical area). The identification of risks must be done

regularly. This has to take into consideration both internal and external risks. Internal

rest are those the managerial team can control or influence, well external risks are and

1 www. riskwaters .com 2 www. jpmorgan .com

3

http://www.jpmorgan.com/

http://www.riskwaters.com/

not under its control. In the same time, the money spent to obtain more information is

added to the total expenses. The risk concept is closely linked to the probability logic.

We can say that they refer to the controlled indetermination by objective probabilities:

the risk of the dice I throw to show one is 1/6. In the conditions when, the probabilities

attributed are subjective, the risk refers to a combination of objective probabilities and

their subjective estimations. That is the case of the probabilities working with

meteorology: they express both the indetermination and the limits of our actual

knowledge; action directions. As following, it is important the appreciation of the need

for a perfect information reported to the costs for obtaining that information.

The rest can be identified using different methods:

ˇ making up some control lists which include potential risk sources such as:

environmental conditions, expected results, personnel, objectives modifications,

projecting and execution errors and omissions, costs estimations and execution terms

etc.;

ˇ the analysis of available documents in the archive of the form to identify

the problems which occurred in similar situations to the current ones;

ˇ using the experience of the directly productive personnel (the divisions end

teams chiefs) by inviting them to a formal risks identifications meeting. Many times

people on the field are aware of the risks and problems those in the offices don’t notice.

And efficient communication between fields and offices is one of the best sources of

identifying and reducing risks;

ˇ identifying the exterior imposed risks (through legislation, changes in the

economy, technology, syndicate relationships) by assigning a person to participate to

the professional associations meetings, conferences and to read specialty publications.

The quantification involves using some mathematical instruments (quantitative

methods) and most of all developing some interpreting aptitudes for the results obtained

in this way. The risk analysis process involves the probability calculation which raises

the issue of economic prediction.

The economic prediction is a branch of economy which has as an object the

anticipation of the economic phenomena. The companies are forced to make predictions

of the market conditions when the production plan issue is raised. The governments

realize prognosis when they decide the budgetary or monetary politics. According to the

one making the projection and the nature of the methods used these very from simple

extrapolations based on past events to the prognosis for simulations for the entire

4

economy. Both at a micro and macro level the predictions involve the construction of

mathematical models.

The decision in conditions of uncertainty

Incorporating the risk in the economic theory to place relatively late – many of

the first economists were statisticians (for example Francis Y. Edgeworth3 and John

Maynard Keynes4), and the concept of marginal utility, the fundament neoclassical

economists was developed for the first time by Daniel Bernoulli5 (1738).

The most important challenge in the beginning of the twentieth century was that

of defining precisely the effect of the risk or uncertainties on economical decisions.

The most important step was defining the distinction between risk and

uncertainty by Frank H. Knight6. Knight’s interpretation is that the risk refers to the

situations where the decision maker can attribute probabilities to the possible events. On

the contrary, the uncertainty refers to the situations where the aleatory character of the

events cannot be expressed in probabilistic terms.

The opinions regarding the difference between risk and uncertainty determined

ample theoretical debates without reaching any unanimous accepted results so far.

The explication given by Knight can help in categorizing the most important

theories emitted later regarding the decision in risk or uncertainty conditions:

1. The theory of expected utility with objective probabilities– von Neumann-

Morgenstern (1944)7 is a risk theory;

2. The state-preference approach – Arrow (1953)8 and Debreu (1959), which

doesn’t assume attributing the probabilities, is on uncertainty theory;

3. The theory of expected utility with subjective probabilities – Savage (1954)9

is situated somewhere in the middle.

One of the most important contributions of von Neumann and Morgenstern was

a demonstration of the fact that if an agent prefers lotteries, then there is a utility

3 Papers Relating to Political Economy by Francis Y. Edgeworth Hardcover, Burt Franklin, ISBN 0833710001 (0-8337-1000-1)4 Treatise on Money (1930)5 Bernoulli Daniel. Mathematik.ch. Retrieved on 2007-09-07.6 Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, 19217 The von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory8 The State-Preference Approach9 Savage, L.J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. New York, NY: Wiley

5

http://www.econlib.org/library/Knight/knRUP.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007

http://www.mathematik.ch/mathematiker/daniel_bernoulli.php

http://www.bookfinder.com/dir/i/Papers_Relating_to_Political_Economy/0833710001/


function which attributes a utility to any existent lottery. This is the criteria agents build

their preferences on.

The essence of the assumption of the expected utility of von Neumann and

Morgenstern consists in concentrating the analysis on the preferences for distributions

and after that, by deduction, developing the reason regarding the preferences for the

possible results.

Kenneth J. Arrow (1953) and Gerard Debreu (1959) realized another

“subjectivist” nature revolution by developing the concept of preferring state regarding

the uncertainty. Although it is not necessary opposed to the assumption of the expected

utility the approach of the preferring state does not involve the attribution of

probabilities, whether objective or subjective, even if most of the time this could be

useful.

The need for risk management for

From a purely academic point of view the interest manifested by the companies

for risk management can be curious. The classical theory of the portfolio states that the

investors can eliminate the specific risk other financial assets through diversification.

For this reason specific risk exposure will not be rewarded on the market. The investors

build portfolios of the free of risk assets and a mix of risky assets, the share between the

two categories of titles being described according to the risk aversion. The conclusion

would be that, from the perspective of creating value for the shareholders, the investors

can achieve this through diversification.

Partly, the inherent risk of a business can be reduced by the investor through

diversifying the portfolio the business (operational diversification). The diversifiable

risk is close connected to the specific events or phenomena of a field of activity or of a

given firm. This type of risk can be met under the name of firm-

specific-risk, idiosyncratic risk or nonsystematic risk.

The distinction between the risk the investor is exposed to and that the firm is

exposed to is important is specially in the case of direct foreign investments. Direct

investments are category of the international investments which reflect the objective of

a resident entity of a country (direct investor) to obtain permanent, good profits

following an action performed in another country. A permanent profit implies the

6

existence of long term relationship between the direct investor and the enterprise. A

direct investment relationship is created when the foreign investor either holds 10% or

more of the shares, either he holds the voting power in the enterprise he invested

directly. Foreign direct investment represents the investments of nonresidents as capital

inputs of cash or assets, including the loans given by nonresidents firms to their

subsidiaries. Generally, the distinction between the performant projects and the non

performant ones depends on the resources and on the abilities of the firm to assume

them. What for a firm can be an exception is desirable for another. The enounced

distinctions prove their utility in selecting methods to estimate and control risk.

• Bankruptcy costs. The reorganizing or interrupting the activity costs of a

company will reduce the actual market value. This is why risk management can increase

the value of the firm by reducing the bankruptcy probability.

• Taxes. Many taxing systems include different methods to carry the taxing

advantages of past losses. Ceteris paribus, reducing the volatility of future incomes will

lead to reducing the updated value of future payments and determines the increase of

the firm’s value.

• The structure and the cost of the capital. A major source of bankruptcy is the

inability to honor debts. As such, the higher the owing rate is, the higher the company’s

risk. Through a risk management, the situation of a high owing rate which can allow a

more aggressive expansion of the firm as long as this means of financing is not

expensive is possible.

• Compensating packages through capital participation. Due to the participation

to the activity of the firm the employees have an implicit exposure to the risk of the firm

they work for. This is the reason for which, the higher the risk of the firm, the higher the

compensations solicited by the actual and future employees. Appealing to risk reduction

means can determine the reducing of personnel recruitment costs.

Risk management and firm performance

Taking into consideration the interest for the risk management manifested by the

majority of the firms on the market, one can draw the conclusion that generally,

appealing to risk management techniques can generate value. Analysis regarding the

practices used by the mining companies in gold industry revealed the fact that the

market price of the shares of these companies is less sensitive to the price changes on

7

the gold market following risk management. Similar analysis have been performed on a

group of firms who started to use other techniques to reduce risk and the conclusion was

that the market price of shares is less affected by the changes in the interest rates or

currency exchange rate. Allayanis and Weston show that the firms exposed to currency

risk which decide to cover that risk have a greater performance than the firms affected

by this risk and don’t use management means.

There are studies which have found that a reduction of the volatility of the

financial flows of the company lead to reducing the capital cost and higher investments.

In the same time a portfolio of firms which use the techniques of risk management

register performances higher than the firms which don’t resort to risk management.

Although the empiric evidence reflect the necessity to resort to risk management

techniques there are studies which show that, at a commercial banks’ level, although the

respect of the prudence principles led to the construction of a pretty conservative risk

management system (large values of the amounts deposited as a minimum compulsory

reserve to the central bank) there are many situations when the losses were higher than

the predicted levels. The most usual situations the banks had to suffer from were

determined by consecutive losses. If the first loss can be harder to predict, still the

second one is possible to see with simple analysis methods. These reasons determined

the development of some risk management means more advanced than the ones used at

present.

The evaluation of financial risk in the light of the USA’s crisis of sub prime

loans

Based on these notions we tried to perform a study of some powerful American

banks and of the ones listed at the Bucharest Stock Exchange.

In the attempt to get as many quantifiable data as possible from an extremely

developed market, such as the USA, we looked for possible correlations with a country

from an emerging market. It was said many times that Romania was strongly correlated

to everything happening on the American financial market.

In 2008 alone, practically every media specialty article referred to the Dow

Jones index (the most representative index of the American market). When it would fall,

one could see the next day in Bucharest on the BET-C index (Romanian firms index) a

perfect correlation, taken to extreme … at a decrease of 1% of the ^DJI (Dow Jones

8

Index), the BET-C (Bet Composite) would drop with 3 – 4% and vice versa for

increases.

BET-C ^DJI

But 2007 brought for the banking sector, and then obviously for the financial

markets sector a great hit. The crisis of the sub prime loans, a crisis which has shaken

from the grounds an economy so strong as the USA’s and which then, with a domino

effect, had side effects all over the world.

We wanted to see what was the effect of this crisis on the credits, on the

financial indicators and on the market indicators of the first 3 banks of the USA (in the

world’s top 10 too). The study does not resume to the simple description of the

American banks though, but also to that of the Romanian banks.

If the risk can be quantified so well by the American banks, we wonder if we in

Romania can do the same thing. If we will start from the premises, that everything that

moves on the American market, is directly sensed by our market, than let’s keep

checking the thoughtfulness of this assumption.

In the tables below we presented the situation of the banks which will be in the

study, taking into consideration the following indicators:

- Net income;

- Net profit;

- The profit generated by an action (Earning per share – EPS);

9

- The dividends offered (it is taken into consideration as a supplementary

earning, except for the difference between the sales price and the acquisition

price of a share);

- The prices registered by the stock exchange over a year (high, low, close);

- Stock exchange capitalization;

- ROA (the assets’ return);

- ROE (the owned capitals return);

- Total assets.

Table 1 Financial and accounting data for Citigroup

Table 2 Financial and accounting data for Bank of America

10

Table 3 Financial and accounting data for JP Morgan Chase & Co

One can observe that starting with the financial year 2007; the 3 banks recorded

a drop of incomes and of the net profit. The exception seems to be JP Morgan, but here

the effect of the crisis was felt only in the fourth trimester of 2007. The losses in this

trimester were massive (billions), but are well disguised because of the extremely

favorable situation of the first 3 trimesters. Only with the publishing of the results of the

first trimester of 2008 we can observe the influence it had on them too. The incomes

and the net profit dropped practically 5 to 6 times.

In the same time if we look over the tables we can see that American banks have

an extremely stable policy when it comes to giving dividends. Each year dividends were

given, even increasing ones, but for the first trimester of 2008 these dividends are the

lowest of the last five years. If the results for the second trimester will be just as

pessimist, there won’t be any left by the end of 2008.

The returns (of the assets and of owned capitals) registered a serious drop also,

fact reflected very well in the chart with the average rental prices from the end of the

last 5 years. (The prices are those registered by the New York Stock Exchange, the

NYSE)

11

Chart 1

CLOSE PRICE (NYSE)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(Q1)

YEAR

VALU

E ($

)

CITIGROUP BAC JP MORGAN

Citigroup seems to be the most affected bank in the American sector, the closing

prices in May 2008 growing under the minimum limits recorded at the end of 2002.

Saving this bank appears to be in the hands of foreign investors, but it remains to be

seen, after we will find out the data for the second trimester.

We will present the situations of the 3 banks with the help of charts, to be more

suggestive from the perspective of results.

Chart 2

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Q1)

YEAR

NET REVENUE

CITIGROUP BANK OF AMERICA JP MORGAN

12

Chart 3

-10,000-5,000

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(Q1)

YEAR

NET INCOME


Chart 4

-2-1012345

$

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(Q1)

YEAR

EARNINGS PER SHARE


Chart 5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(Q1)

YEAR

DIVIDENDS PER SHARE


13

Now that we have seen this data, let’s try to analyze the assumptions for the

Romanian banking system.

Unfortunately, up until now, not every data was published for the first trimester

of 2008, but from the official statements of banks officials we can already make a

general idea. 2008 started poorly for our banks too.

It’s not the case to talk about loss. On the contrary, at the end of 2007, except for

Transilvania Bank (the TLV symbol at the Bucharest Stock Exchange), which

registered a drop of incomes; the other banks closed the year on growth.

If we look over all the data we notice that the correlation we are looking for with

the American banks … exists but is very weak.

We cannot safely say even that these losses are caused by the same reasons.

2007 was an extremely difficult year for the Romanian banking sector. Being the

first year after adhering, the competition became fierce, the number of banks grew, the

diversification of products also grew. Aiming towards breach sectors was the main

purpose of all the foreign banks which entered the Romanian market.

We will probably know more after the data will be completely published and

especially after we will have all the reports for the second trimester.

But the only indicator which was fully correlated with the American banking

market was the prices from the stock exchange. These prices went in the same direction

with that of the general market index BET-C.

But even for this there is a simple explication: most of the money on the

Romanian financial market comes from direct foreign investments; when the American

market, closely follower by the Asian one and later on by the European one started to

drop…almost all that money exited our market.

It is well known the concept of investing on Eastern European markets (markets

considered mainly emergent) which is: when entering, one enters all markets at once,

and when they become overheated (new historical maximums are reached) they start

charging profits. Meaning it is sold massively on all the markets at once.

On the Romanian market this was sensed more powerful, the most successful

sectors being exactly the banking and financial ones (SIFs).

14

So these price drops don’t actually reflect in 2008 the real accounting situations.

We can place the blame for these drops on the speculative moves generated by the

foreign investors.

As a curiosity, in 2008 the BET-C had the biggest drop of all the European

indexes.

The chart is expressed by a logarithmic scale, being difficult to compare the

BRD prices with the other two banks which have sub unitary prices.

Nevertheless one can observe that for the Transilvania Bank (TLV) and for

Carpatica Bank (BCC) May 2008 slowly leads to values under those of 2002.

Even BRD registers severe drops (from a maximum of 30 RONs to almost 17

RONs), but is a little faded on the chart because of the logarithmic state (Chart 6).

CLOSE PRICE (BVB)

0.1

1

10

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

YEAR

VALU

E (R

ON

)

BRD TLV BCC

Following we present the indicators for the Romanian banks and the afferent

charts.

Table 4 Financial and accounting data for BRD

Table 5 Financial and accounting data for Transilvania Bank

15

Table 6 Financial and accounting data for Carpatica Commercial Bank

Chart 7

0350700

1,0501,4001,7502,1002,4502,8003,1503,5003,850

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

YEAR

NET REVENUE

BRD TLV BCC

Chart 8

16

0

100

200

300

400

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(Q1)

YEAR

NET INCOME

BRD TLV BCC

Chart 9

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

YEAR

EARNINGS PER SHARE

BRD TLV BCC

Chart 10

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

MILLIONS $

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Q1)

YEAR

DIVIDENDS PER SHARE

BRD TLV BCC

REFERENCES :

17

1. Allayannis, George and Weston, James – The use of foreign currency

derivatives and firm market value, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 14, no. 1,

Spring 2001

2. Pretenţia de cunoaştere – Discurs în memoria lui Alfred Nobel, 11 decembrie

1974 - Academia Română – Laureaţii Nobel în economie. Discursuri de recepţie;

Expert Publishing, 2001;

3. Papers Relating to Political Economy by Francis Y. Edgeworth Hardcover,

Burt Franklin, ISBN 0833710001 (0-8337-1000-1)

4. Savage, L.J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. New York, NY: Wiley

5. Tufano, Peter – Who manages risk? An empirical examination of risk

management practices in the gold mining industry, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, no.

4, Sept. 2006;

6. Utilizarea modelelor: experienţă şi perspective – Discurs în memoria lui

Alfred Nobel, 12 decembrie 1969 – Academia Română – Laureaţii Nobel în economie.

Discursuri de recepţie; Expert Publishing, 2001

7. Zamfir, Cătălin – Incertitudinea. O perspectivă psiho-sociologică, Scientific

Publishing, Bucharest, 1990;

8. ro.wikipedia.org

9. www.ase.ro

10. www.intercapital.ro

11. www.bvb.ro

12. www.nyse.ro

13. www.nasdaq.ro

18

http://www.ase.ro/



TWO SIDES OF THE MIMIC MODEL OF THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY

Corina Maria ENE – Univ. Hyperion Bucuresti

Andreea Mitroi – Univ. Hyperion Bucuresti

1. Introduction

The informal economy phenomenon, very controversies, was explored in details beginning with

1972 by International Labor Office, which used for the first time the name „informal sector”. The concept

cames from a third world country study (Hart, 1971), those countries being the first in which the informal

phenomenon was observed and studied, later distinguished in the countries with a developed economy.

The initial studies was concentrated around the defining and the understanding of the informal

economy, but the lately ones extended the analise, considering the informal economy a central element,

very important, which has a strong influence on the dynamics of the economics and social development,

especially in the less developed countries.

All the recent studies are based on the importance and the impact both economic and social of this

informal economy, and on its relation and influence on the formal economy.

The goal of this paper is to present and analise the MIMIC Model ( Multiple Indicators, Multiple

Causes) from 2 sides: from a classic mathematical view using structural equations and from a Fuzzy logic

point of view.

The MIMIC model uses some alterable indicators and multiple variable causes which determine a

structural relationship to explain the latent variable – the informal or hidden or underground economy.

In this model, both the informal economy indicators and the causes are observable and the

informal economy itself is a latent variable.

The paper transpose the elements of the classical MIMIC model in a Fuzzy logic „language” and

Analise it with the tools provided by it: fuzzy operations, fuzzy operators, fuzzy matrix, super fuzzy

matrix, relational fuzzy maps, cognitive fuzzy maps etc, all used for identifying the best way to describe

and to calculate the scalar values of the dependent variable – the underground economy.

Estimating how big is the underground economy is a controversial subject through the researchers.

The skeptics underline the difficulties to accurate define the size of the informal economy and also dot the

differences of the results obtained through different methods.(Dixon, 1999; Tanzi, 1999; Thomas, 1999).

1

The optimists underline the positive aspects : a right measurement of the GDP and other economics

indicators, and the importance in the development of the econometric models or economic policy models.

(Bhattacharyya, 1999; Giles, 1999).

No matter what methods are used to estimate the underground economy, the consequences are the

same: the informal economics activities reduce the tax basis, undermine the finance of the public goods

and of the social protection, reduce the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, the income

distribution, and the economic grow. Trying to diminishing the losses from taxable incoming through the

increasing of the taxes will create a vicious circle, encouraging the hiding of the economic activities from

the authorities..

2. The MIMIC (Multiple Indicator Multiple Causes) Model

The MIMIC model, uses a series of variable indexes an multiple causes which implies a structural

relation which allowes to explain a „latent” variable – the hidden economy.

In this model, both hidden economy indexes and the variable causes are known (observable) but

the hidden economy itself is a „latent variable”. (Fig 1)

Fig. 1 – The MIMIC model schemeSource: William H. Greene, Econometric Analysis, New York, Macmillan, 1990

The variables used in the model are shown in the Table 1.

The variables of the MIMIC modelTable 1

Variables Indexes-the total of free-lancers with more than one places of work

- the nominal income of the free lancers

-unemployment rate

-the nominal exchange rate

- direct taxes / GDP

-Indirect taxes / GDP

-GNP

-ln(GNP)

- money outside the bank system

Source: Roderick Hill, The Underground Economy in Canada: Boom or Bust?, Department of Social Science, University of

New Brunswick, Saint John, vol.50, no.5, 2002.

The selection of those variables is randomly, and the uses of some can rise problems.

CAUSESCLATENT

VARIABLEVINDEXESI

2

The model measures a latent variable – the underground economy. Giles and Tedds name this

latent variable as the output of the informal economy as a percentage of GDP.

The MIMIC model is based on 2 types of equations: structural equations and a system of

measurement equations. The link between the latent variable (η) and the causes (Xq) is named „structural

model”, ad the equation between the indicators (Yp) and the latent variable is named „Measurement

model.

The underground economy (η) is linear determined based on exogenous causes which are known

(x1, x2, ... ,xp) which can be adjusted with errors (ξ):

ξγγγη ++++= qqxxx ...2211 (1)

Also the latent variable has errors (ε) due to the endogenous known indexes (y):

y1 = λ1η + ε1

y2 = λ2η + ε2 (2)

....................

yp = λpη + εp

The structural error (ξ), and the measurement errors (ε) have a normal distribution, and the

standard deviation for all the variables are supposing to be zero.

Considering the vectors:

x’ = (x1, x2, ... ,xq) - exogenous causes;

γ’ = (γ1, γ2, ... , γq ) - structural parameters

y’ = (y1, y2, ... ,yp) - endogenous indexes;

λ’ = (λ1, λ2, ... , λp) - structural parameters

ε’ = (ε1, ε2, ... , εp ) - measurement errors;

υ’ = (υ1, υ2, ... ,υp) - standard deviation

Equation (1) and (2) can be written:

ξγη += x' (3)

y = λη + ε (4)

Suppose E(ξε’) = 0 and as E(ξ2) = σ2 and E(εε’) = Θ2, where Θ is the diagonal of the matrix υ, the

model can be reduce to a function with observed variables on its arguments:

y = λ ( ξγ +x' ) + ε = Π’x + v (5)

The matrix coefficients and the error vector are:

Π = γλ’ şi v = λξ + ε

And the covariance matrix is:

Σ = E(vv’) = σ2λλ’ + Θ2

3

Some conditions are necessary but not sufficient. We use „t-rule” supposing that the numbers of

unredundant elements in the co-variant matrix for observed variables should be more or equal than the

unknown parameters in the model. A sufficient but not necessary conditions is that we should have at least

2 indexes and one cause to allow a scale for η. For defining an interval for the latent variable is necessary

that the parameter λ to be fixed at an exogenous value. Even if the model was improved in the last 10

years, the most important critic is the dependence of the income on the chosen of the scalar coefficient λ.

The causes and the indicators are shown in fig. 2, and the difficulty consists in defining the type of

influences between the endogen variables and the exogen one.

Figura 2 – Cauzele şi indicatorii modelului MIMIC

3. THE FUZZY MODEL OF THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY

Premises

We suppose that there are a positive association between the casual variable and the size or underground

economy.

Selecting and defining the inputs and membership functions

a) V1: Taxes/GDP ( which cumulate the variables Direct taxes/GDP and Indirect taxes/GDP)

b) V2: Social security system contributions/GDP

c) V3: Unemployment rate

Impozite directe / PIBIX111

X222

X333

Angajaţi în sectorul public/ Forţa de muncăp

Rata şomajuluiR

Liber profesionişti/ Forţa de muncăF

X444

X555

X666

PIB realP Y111

Y222

Y333

ηη

Economia informalăi

-1-

λλ

Rata forţei de muncă activea

λλMoneda în circulaţie în afara sistemului bancarb

γγ

γγ

Impozite indirecte / PIBI

γγ

γγ Contribuţii la sistemul asigurărilor sociale / PIBa

4

d) V4: Free lancers/Labor force

e) V5: Private sectors employee/Labor force

f) V6: Underground Economy

Using statistical series for a given period ( i.e. 1991-2000) we can establish a „normal” value bases

on which we can calculate quantitative associated levels of magnitude.

Robert Draeseke and David Giles propose the using of standard deviation around the „normal”

value in each point to describe the lingvistic variables Very Low (VL), Low (L), Normal (N), High

(H) and Extreme(E).

Very Low Low Normal High Extreme

(VL) (L) (N) (H) (E)

-2SD -1SD Mean 1SD 2SD

In this way is possible to generate sets of five numbers for ach year in question, and we’ll call

these sets „break-points”.

Then , we will associate data values with categories of magnitude. Fuzzy logic is based on non-

crisp sets whose members are defined by degree of association. The establishment of levels of

association can be done using the membership function, which can take different forms according to

the expert beliefs. Draeseke and Giles use a simple linear or distance measure to assign levels of

association. For example, the value of Taxes/GDP in a year can be closer to to „nrmal” than to „high”

and a harmonic assignation is used, and the weights are inversely related to the distances:

VL L N H E

0.0000 0.0000 0.8709 0.1291 0.0000

A fuzzy logic membership function of this type will assciate observations with at most two

magnitude levels, the weights for wich sum to unity. Extreme observations that fall below the lowest

break-point or above the highest break-point are given an extreme association value equal to the

relevant „outer boundary” level. A value of unity associated to a particular level indicates complete

membership and a zero value means no membership at all.

Defining rules (implication functions)

The decision rules will determine how particular levels of association for each variable are

combined to establish the levels of association for underground economy itself. These rules are

arbitrary and are based on the experts experience.

The inference rules are then interpreted using the „IF – THEN” decision criteria

For example, we present here some rules of inference:

5

Rule V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 Degree

1 E E E E E VB 1.0

2 E E E H H VB 0.8

3 H H H H H B 1.0

4 H H N N N B 0.8

5 N N N N N A 1.0

6 N H N L L A 1.0

7 L L L L L S 1.0

8 L H L VL L S 0.8

9 VL L L L VL VS 0.8

10 VL VL VL VL VL VS 1.0

.................................................................................................................

E = extreme, H = high, N = normal, L=low, VL = very low, VB = very big, B = big, A = average, S =

small, VS = very small.

The number of rules can be very large, based n how many variables we have in the model and how

many values can take each varaible.

The column labeled degree in the table provide a quantified degree of association for the V6

(underground ecoomy) series. We can note that for the same characteristic of the V6 (underground

economy) we can associate „big” at a degree of 0.8 or at a degree 1.0 . The degree 1.0 denotes that the

udergrud economy is perfectly associate with „Big” at that level while a degree of 0.8 means a not

perfect association. This is just an example, but in practice the degree as a lingvistic variable an take

all the values between 0 and 1, based on the experts experience. And this can be a weaknes of the

model, due to the fact that human judgement is used in the construction of the rules. The extension of

fuzzy logic comes here giving a help through other cocepts: fuzzy matrics, super fuzzy matrics, fuzzy

cognitive maps, super fuzzy cognitive maps etc

Defining the agregation method (defuzzification)

The last step, defuzzification consists in deriving the numerical series of the V6.

For example, we can associate the values of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1.0 to the levels „ery small”,

„Small”, „Average”, „Big” and „Very big” for the V6 variable, weighted by the relevant levels of

association.

The fuzzy operations are „MIN” and „MAX” used for „AND” and „OR” operators.

Using the decision rules, each combination of the 5 variables (V1 to V5) is associated with a level of

magnitude for the explcit variable V6 – the underground economy, along with a degree.

6

V6 levelrule i = Degreerule i x Min (V1rule i, V2rule i, V3rule i, V4rule i, V5rule i)

For example:

If

Extreme High Normal Low Very low

V1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1

V2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1

V3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2

V4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3

V5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1

Then according to the rule 5 we have:

V6rule 5 = 1.0 x min (0.5, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4)

V6rule 5 = 1.0 x 0.2

V6rule 5 = 0.2

We can obtain this way values for V6 variable for every defined rule. But for the lingvistic variable V6

we need to use one value for every level ( VB = very big, B = big, A = average, S = small, VS = very

small) form all the calculated values resulted as above, so we will use the MAX fuzzy operator to

extract the value for every level.

Rule V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 Degree

1 E E E E E VB 1.0

2 E E E H H VB 0.8

3 H H H H H B 1.0

4 H H N N N B 0.8

5 N N N N N A 1.0

6 N H N L L A 1.0

V6rule 6 = 1.0 x min (0.5, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1)

V6rule 6 = 1.0 x 0.1

V6rule 6 = 0.1

Then if decision rules 5 and 6 are activated, and both results in a level of Average we will apply Max

fuzzy operator:

V6 „Average” = Max( 0.2, 0.1)

V6 „Average” = 0.2

Finally, we will attachh values for the V6 levels (which have been set to 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1.0 in

association with the lingvistic variables Very small, Small, Average, Big and Very big).

Lets suppose that we obtain the values:

7

Level Value Weight

Vs 0.1 0.0

S 0.3 0.25

A 0.2 0.5

B 0.125 0.75

VB 0.25 1.0

Then,

V6 = 25.0125.02.03.01.0)0.125.0()75.0125.0()5.02.0()25.03.0()0.01.0(

++++++++ xxxxx

V6 = 0.51875

4. CONCLUSIONS

Using that two ways of underground economy’s estimation (or more) it’s possible to compare the

results in time and to estimate the errors. An exact numerical calculation have to be done for a given

period, and the differences between the reuslts should be explained.

Is very important to have a way of measure the underground economy (even if it is unobservable) due

to its influence for policy makers who need reliable measures of its trend and cyclical characteristics. Both

classical methods and fuzzy logic methods are usefull and maybe the development of the last one will

offer easier ways to estimate the scalar values and to explain the resulted variabile including much more

parameters than the ones shown here.

8

REFERENCES

Bhattacharyya, D.K. On the Economic Rationale of Estimating the Hidden Economy The

Economic Journal, Vol. 109, no. 456, 1999;Cowell F. A. Cheating the government: The economics of Evasion MIT Press,

Cambridge, MA., 1990.Dixon, H. Controversy: on the Use of the `Hidden Economy' Estimates

The Economic Journal, Vol. 109, no. 456, 1999;Feige, Edgar L. Defining and Estimating Underground and Informal Economies: A

New Institutional Economics Approach, World Development, Vol.18,

No.7, 1990;Frey Bruno, Weck-Hanneman Hannelore The Hidden Economy as an “Unobservable”

variable. European Economic Review, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1984. Giles D.E.A.; Johnson B.J. Taxes, Risk Aversion, and the Size of the Underground Economy

Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 7, no. 1, 2002;Giles, David E.A. Measuring the size of the hidden economy and the tax gap in New

Zealand: an econometric analysis. Working Paper No. 5a, Working

Paper on Monitoring the

Health of the Tax System, Inland Revenue Department,Wellington

(1995).Greene, William H. Econometric Analysis, New York, Macmillan, 1990;Hill, Roderick The Underground Economy in Canada: Boom or Bust?, Department of

Social Science, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, vol.50, no.5,

2002;Johnson, S., Kaufmann, D. and Shleifer, A. The unofficial economy in

transition.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, Washington

D.C. ,1997.Portes, Alejandro and Saskia Sassen-Koob, Making it underground: Comparative

material on the informal sector in western market economies.American

Journal of

Sociology. July, 1987.Schneider, F. The shadow economies of Western Europe. Economic Affairs, 1997.

Tanzi, V. Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy. (1999);

Economic Journal, vol. 109 (June).Thomas, J. Quantifying the black economy: measurement without theory

yet again.Economic Journal, vol. 109, (1999).

9

APPLICATIONS OF THE IMPLICIT FUNCTION PRINCIPLEAlina Olteanu and Octav Olteanu

"POLITEHNICA" Univ. of BucharestApplied Sciences, Department of Mathematics I

Splaiul Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest, [email protected]; [email protected]

Tel: 021-4991067

Abstract. In the first Section of this work, we apply an improved variant (see [14]) of a result first

published in [15], to the Gamma function, on the interval ] [∞,0 . One obtains the existence and the

“construction” of a decreasing function f , with interesting qualities. Some of them are deduced from

the general theorem published in [15] and improved in [14], some others are special properties related

to Gamma function. The main result of Section 1 is Theorem 1.3, which, in particular, proves that the

minimum point of the Euler ‘s Gamma function, is the minimum point of another function, attached to

the Gamma function via the implicit function principle, on the whole interval ] [∞,0 . Section 2 contains

the operatorial version of Theorem 1.2 of the present work. Finally, in Section 3, we prove a result

concerning some Hilbert space bases which have as elements analytic functions, in 2L – type

spaces, with respect to Lebesgue measure on nR or on n+R .

Mathematics Subject Classification : 26A06, 26A48, 26B05, 26B10, 26D15, 28A20, 49K05, 47A50,

47A60, 41A10.

Key words: functional equations, optimization related to the Gamma function, the implicit function

principle, operatorial equations, Hilbert bases with analytic elements.

1. Solving an optimization problem related to the Gamma function We recall the following result concerning the construction of a decreasing function f, implicitly defined

by the equation

(1.1) ( ) ( )( )xfgxg = , for all x in a given interval I ,g being a given function which satisfies some conditions. For the proof of this theorem see Theorem

1.1 [15] and its improved version from [14]. For some applications to special equations see [8], [9],

[10], [14], [15]. For an approach to the complex case see [11]. The proof of this result does not use the

implicit function Theorem, the basic idea being to use the fact that the order relation on R is

complete. That is the reason why the method works in any order - complete vector lattice.

Theorem 1.1. (Theorem 2.1. [14]). Let R∈vu, , vu < , ] [vua ,∈ ; ] [ R→vug ,: be a continuous

function. Assume that there exists

(a) R∈==↑↓

λ)(lim)(lim xgxgvxux ;

(b) the function g “decreases” (strictly) in the interval ]u,a], and is strictly increasing in the

interval [a,v[.

Then there exists a strictly decreasing function ] [ ] [vuvuf ,,: → , such that

(1) ( ) ( )( )xfgxg = , ] [vux ,∈∀

and f has the following qualities:

(i) vxfux

=↓

)(lim , uxfvx

=↑

)(lim ;

(ii) a is the unique fixed point of f ;

(iii) ff =− 1 in ]u,v[;

(iv) f is continuous in ]u,v[;

(v) if ] [ ( )avuCg n \,∈ , Zn ∞∈ + , 1≥n , then ] [ ( )avuCf n \,∈ ;

(vi) if g is derivable in ]u,v[ \ a, so is f ;

(vii) if ] [( )εε +−∈ aaCfg ,, 1 (for an ε>0), then ( ) 1−=′ af ;

(viii) if g is analytic at a , then f is derivable at a and ( ) 1−=′ af ;

(ix) if ] [ ( )avuCg \,3∈ , ( ) 0≠′′ ag , and there exist )('lim:1 xfax→

=ρ , R∈′′=→

)(lim:2 xfax

ρ , then

] [( ) ] [ ( )avuCvuCf \,, 32 ∩∈ , and )()(

32)(

)3(

agagaf

′′⋅−=′′ ;

(x) let [,[|: var gg = , ],]|: aul gg = ; then we have the following constructive formulas for f :

],]),()([;,[sup))(()( 0001

0 auxxgxgvaxxggxf lrlr ∈∀≤∈== − ,

[,[),()(];,]inf))(()( 0001

0 vaxxgxgauxxggxf rlrl ∈∀≤∈== − .

Theorem 1.2 Let Gamma be the Euler’s function, considered on the interval ] [∞,0 . Let a in ]1,2[ be

the unique positive number such that ( ) 0=Γ ′ a . Then there exists a unique decreasing function f

which applies the interval ] [∞,0 onto itself, such that

(1.1’) ( ) ( )( )xfx Γ=Γ , for all positive x ,

and f has the following qualities:

(i) ( ) ∞=→

xfx 0lim , ( ) 0lim =

∞→xf

x ;

(ii) a is the unique fixed point of f ;

(iii) f is invertible on ] [∞,0 and f is its own inverse;

(iv) f is analytic in ] [∞,0 , except at a, where f is derivable, and ( ) 1−=′ af ;

(v) if there exists f” (a), then : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )aaaf Γ ′′Γ ′′′−=′′ 32 ;

(vi) denote by lΓ the restriction of Gamma to the interval ] [a,0 , while rΓ will be the restriction

of the function Gamma to [ [∞,a ; then: ( ) [ [ ( ) ( ) 00 ;,sup xxaxxf lr Γ≤Γ∞∈= , for any

xo in ]0,a], ( ) ] ] ( ) ( ) 00 ;,0inf xxaxxf rl Γ≤Γ∈= , for all [ [∞∈ ,0 ax ;

(vii) the asymptotic behavior at infinity is given by:

( ) ( ) ( )[ ] ( ) 11

0lim!11lim ++

→∞→Γ−==Γ kk

y

k

xykxxf , for all k in N, under the assumption that all

these last limits exist;

(viii) the asymptotic behavior at 0 is given by ( ) ( )

( )( ) ( ) π21

lim21

1

0=

−Γ

−

−

→ tf

tf

t tfet

;

Proof. The assertions (i) – (vi) follow by the general Theorem 1.1. The last two statements follow

from some known qualities of function Γ : for (vii), we write

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 111limlimlimlim00

=Γ=+Γ=Γ=Γ=Γ→→∞→∞→

yyyxfxfxxfyyxx , while (viii) follows by

the asymptotic formula at infinity for ( )1+Γ x , which generalizes Stirling formula ( see [6] ).

Next we apply Theorem 1.2 to an optimization problem.

Theorem 1.3 We define

(1.2) ( ) ( )( ) ( )( ) 0,

!1

0>

++−= ∑

∞

=x

nxfnxnxh

n

n

.

Then we have:

(1.3) ( )( )( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )[ ]∑∫∞

=

∞ −−−

+−=≥−

−=1

2

1

1

!11n

nxxfxt

nanahxxf

dtttexh , for all 0>x .

Thus the minimum point of Gamma function is a minimum point for h too.

(1.4) ( ) ∫∫ −−∞

−− −==1

0

1

1

1 lnln dtttedttteah atat .

Proof. Formula (1.3) follows from formula (2), [6] p.16, written for x , for ( )xf , and then by

subtraction. We denote ( ) ( ) 0, >−== xxxfxuu . Since ( )xu can be introduced under the

integral in (1.3), and the function ( ) ( ) ututw u 1, −= , for 0≠u u and extended by continuity: (

( ) 0ln0, ≥= ttw for all 1≥t ), is analytic and positive on ] [ R×∞,1 , it follows that

( ) ∫∞

−−=1

1 ln dttteah at >0 (the integral commutes with the limit when x converges to a on

sequences, by Lebesgue dominated convergence Theorem). This proves (1.4). On the other

hand, it is easy to see that ( ) R∈≥≥ ututw ,1,0, . It follows that the integrand from (1.3) is

nonnegative, hence so is the integral (1.3). Since the integrand vanishes only at 1=t , it follows

that the integral is positive. Finally, a direct calculation shows that ( ) 0=′ ah , while the limits of the

integrand in (1.3), for any fixed t at 0=x and at ∞=x are both of them equal to ∞+ . Next we

prove that for any fixed 1>t , the integrand in (1.3) is decreasing in the interval ] [a,0 as a function

of x , and increases in an interval [ [∞,a . Recall that the explicit form of the integrand from (1.3) is

( )xthe t ,1− , where ( ) ( )[ ] ( )[ ]xxfttxth xxf −−= −− 11

1 , . To prove the conclusion, it is sufficient to

show that for each fixed 1>t , ( ),.1 th , as a function of x , is decreasing on ] [a,0 . Since

( ) ( )( )xfthxth ,, 11 = for all 0>x , the other assertion ( 1h increases on ] [∞,a ) follows. Assuming

that 1h is not decreasing in ] [a,0 , we will find a contradiction. If 1h is not decreasing in ] [a,0 ,

there are only two cases: a) the minimum point of Gamma, a , is locally a maximum point of 1h , or

b) there exists a local maximum point 0x of 1h , in ] [a,0 . In the first case, a direct computation

shows that

(1.5) ( )( ) ))ln()()((,1 txxfSignxtxhSign −−=∂∂

,1+= if ( )xfax >> , respectively 1− , if ( )xfax <<<0 .

The conclusion is that h decreases in an interval ] [aa ,0 , and increases in ] [1, aa . Hence a is a

local minimum point of 1h , which contradicts the assumption that it was a local maximum point of

1h . Thus the case a) is solved. To solve also the second case, b), assume that 0x is a local

maximum point of 1h , situated in the interval ] [a,0 . Then for each 01 xx < , where 10 xx − is

sufficiently small, it should exist an strictly decreasing derivable function g , on an interval 1I

centered at 1x , such that ( ) ( )( )xgthxth ,, 11 = , for all 1Ix ∈ . The function g has the same

qualities as f , but with respect to 0x instead of a : g is its own inverse, ( ) 00 xxg = , hence,

being decreasing, by its definition, it applies [ ]01 , xx onto [ ]20 , xx , where ( ) 012 xxgx >= .

Hence we can repeat the computation from (1.5), the difference being only that we are working

around 0x instead of a , replacing f by g . Due to the fact that there are no other changes, by

(1.5), the conclusion is that 0x is a minimum point of 1h , contrary to our assumption. Hence there

are no local maximum points of 1h in the interval ] [∞,0 , which proves that 1h decreases as a

function of x , in the interval ] [a,0 . Also using the other facts of the present proof, it follows that

1h increases in the interval [ [∞,a , hence a is a global minimum point for 1h , and for the

integrand in (1.3) too. Since integration preserves inequalities, the conclusion ( ) ( )ahxh ≥ for all

0>x follows, and we have equality only for ax = . The proof is complete.

Remark. The function of two variables ( ) ( ) ( )xyttyxh xy −−= −− 112 , , for yx ≠ , ( ) ttxxh x ln, 1

2−= ,

where t is considered to be a constant, is symmetric on ] [ 2,0 ∞ , and is analytic in this domain.

This function and its symmetry were used in the preceding proof.

2. The operatorial version of Theorem 1.2

Next we apply Theorem 1.10 [15] (which generalizes Theorem1.1 stated above, to abstract order

complete vector lattices), to a commutative algebra X of self-adjoint operators, which is also an

order complete vector lattice. Let H be an arbitrary Hilbert space, T a fixed self adjoint bounded

operator from H into H . Let

( ) TUUTUUTX =−= ,adjointself;1 , ( ) ( ) TXBBUUBTXUX 11 ,allfor; ∈=∈= .

Then X is a commutative algebra, and a complete vector lattice with respect to the order relation

defined by the convex cone

( ) HhhhUXUX ∈∀≥∈=+ ,0,; ( see [2] ).

With these notations, we have:

Theorem 2.1 Let ( ) ] [ aIaUsXUAl ∪⊂∈= ,0; , ( ) ] [ aIaUsXUAr ∪∞⊂∈= ,; ,

where ( )Us is the spectrum of U . Let rl AAA ∪= . Then there exists a strictly decreasing map

AAF →: , such that

( ) ( )( ),UFU Γ=Γ for all AU ∈ ,

and F has the following qualities:

(i) aI is the unique fixed point of F ( here I is the identity operator);

(ii) F is invertible and it is its own inverse;

(iii) F can be “constructed” by formulas:

( ) ( ) ( )00 ;sup UUAUUF r Γ≤Γ∈= , for all lAU ∈0 ,

( ) ( ) ( )00 ;inf UUAUUF l Γ≤Γ∈= , for all rAU ∈0 ,

The proof is similar to those of theorems published in [8], [9], [10], [14], [15].

3. Approximation by analytic functionsWe recall the following approximation results by polynomials with respect to wheighted Lebesgue

measure on +R , respectively on R :

Lemma 3.1. The measure dte t− is a determinate measure on [ [∞,0 . In particular, the polynomials

are dense in [ [( )∞− ,02dte tL .

Lemma 3.2. The even polynomials are dense in ( )( ) ( ) functioneven;22

222 xLxLdtedte tt RR −− ∈= .

The odd polynomials are dense in the subspace of all odd functions from ( )R2dte tL − . The polynomials

are dense in ( )R22xe

L − . Moreover, dxe x2− is a determinate measure on R .

Corollary 3.3. The sequence ( )( ) N∈−

nx

n exL 2 , 0>x constitutes a Hilbert base in ] [( )∞,02L , with

respect to Lebesgue measure dx , where N∈nLn , are Laguerre normalized polynomials. The

sequence ( )( )nx

n exH 2/2− , where nH are the normalized Hermite polynomials, is a Hilbert base in

( )R2L , with respect to Lebesgue measure dx .

Next, we deduce the following result.

Theorem 3.4. For any 2, ≥∈ kk N , the sequence ( ) ( ) 221

1

1

k

k

xkn

xn exLexL −− ⋅⋅ , where the

multiindex ( )knn ,...,1 runs over kN , is a Hilbert base in ] [( )kL ∞,02 , with respect to Lebesgue

measure kdxdx ...1 .

Proof. From Fubini Theorem, it follows that two different elements from the sequence mentioned

above are orthogonal. It remains to be shown that ( ) ( )( ) ( ) kk

kk nn

xkn

xn exLexLSp

N∈−− ⋅⋅

,,22

11

11

is dense in ] [( )kL ∞,02 , with respect to Lebesgue measure. This last assertion follows from Theorem

3.4 (ii) [1]; (since the measure dxe x 2− is determinate on ] [∞,0 , it follows that ∏=

−k

mm

x dxe m

1

2 is also

determinate on ] [ k∞,0 , so that the polynomials are dense in ] [( )kL ∞,02 , endowed with the measure

∏=

−k

mm

x dxe m

1

2 . From this we deduce that the polynomials multiplied by ∏=

−k

m

xme1

2 , are dense in

] [( )kL ∞,02 , endowed with Lebesgue measure kdxdx ...1 . The proof is complete.

.Theorem 3.5 For any natural k, the sequence ( ( ) ( ) )2/2/

122

1

1... k

k

xkn

xn exHexH −− where ( )knn ,...,1 runs

over kN , is a Hilbert base in ( )kL R2 , with respect to Lebesgue measure kdxdx ...1 .

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method. Annals of University of Craiova, 33(2006), 54 - 66.

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