Forum Energy analysis

David Pearce ' s criticism 1 of Nigel Mortimer 's paper on 'Energy analysis of renewable energy sources '2 centres on Mortimer 's hypothetical case of changing the value of input conven- tional fuel price when producing elec- tricity using new generating technolo- gy. Pearce is, understandably, dis- turbed because Mort imer implies that economic forecasters do not take into account that ' the price of energy is part of the price of energy. '

Unfor tunate ly , the extract stops short of the main point that the author is leading up to; if the net energy requirements of the new energy tech- nology in MJ (input) per MJ (output) exceeds unity, then electricity output from that technology can never be economically competitive no matter how high the price of the conventional energy input becomes.

Of course, if there happens to be a non-energy byproduc t to which a notional cost can be allocated, then the system may become economic. A good example of this is nuclear power, where fissile or other materials pro-

duced in reactors may be of high value in a country with a nuclear weapons programme. But this is often kept secret.

The real situation can only be ex- amined by using input-output analysis where all materials and energy inputs to the system are compared with all materials and energy outputs. Pearce commends this type of analysis - 'if this is what energy analysis is, then economists have been using it for a long time. '

It is surprising to see David Pearce refer to his paper written with Michael Webb over 15 years ago. This vigorous attack on energy analysts was soon rebutted by Mick Common, an eco- nomist at Southampton University. 3 At the end of their paper, Webb and Pearce did indeed challenge energy analysts to justify their existence; if this was necessary, it has surely been done during the previous 15 years by the amount of work done for HM government and by published work. A whole series of industrial energy au- dits, based on IFIAS- type energy

analysis methodology, has been issued jointly, between 1976 and 1985, by the Departments of Energy and Industry. A number of energy analyses of re- newable energy sources were carried out for the Department of Energy. ETSU continues to use the practice.

Se ve ra l of these s tud ies have appeared in the literature. Finally, it is mandatory in the USA for energy analysis to be carried out on all major energy projects.

Energy analysis is a well established practice which has provided a valuable input in support of decision makers in the energy field over a long period. I see no necessity to introduce the word 'evaluation' in connection with energy analysis; rather, Chapman and I pre- ferred to call it 'descriptive'. 4

Fred Roberts Richmond, N York.s, UK

1D.W. Pearce, Forum, Energy Policy, November 1991, p 813. 2N. Mortimer, 'Energy analysis of renew- able energy sources', Energy Policy, Vol 19, No 4, May 1991, pp 374--381. 3J.A.G. Thomas, ed, Energy Analysis (see articles by Webb and Pearce and also Com- mon on the economics of energy analysis), IPC Books, 1977. 4p.F. Chapman and F. Roberts, Metal Re- sources and Energy, Butterworths, Lon- don, 1983, p 26.

Whither renewable energy sources?

I have read the excellent Renewables series with great interest.

My only regret is that it did not include hydrogen energy, one of the fast e m e r g i n g a l t e rna t i ve energy sources.

The developing countries are espe- cially well placed to take advantage of renewable technologies as they are small in scale, have zero or minimal fuel costs, and can often be built with local labour. Moreover , economies that depend on renewable fuels are not as vulnerable to supply distortions or volatility, nor are they forced to spend their precious foreign exchange on fuel imports.

The success of small water pumping

windmills in Colombia; wind battery chargers in Mongolia; biomass in Bra- zil; biogas in China and India and solar water heaters in Crete (Greece) are only a few examples that prove the efficacy of indigenous efforts to adopt renewable energy technologies.

The major p rob lems preventing greater application of alternative ener- gy technologies are not technical; the real barriers are lack of information, markets, distribution networks, and instal lat ion, servicing and mainte- nance. All of these factors interact.

If progress is to be achieved, it is essential that integrated programmes be initiated in which all aspects of the implementation problem are covered.

Although energy is an essential com- ponent of development, it is desirable that an energy programme should be seen in the context of the overall community development plan. To suc- ceed, the programme should benefit both the individual and the community.

In the name of research and de- velopment and demonstration prog- rammes, large sums of money have been spent without tangible results in some developing countries. Often, the efforts are piecemeal and there has been much duplication of research effort.

Seeing is believing. If you can prac- tically demonstrate how renewable energy sources can improve people 's living and working conditions and in- crease economic returns, then howev- er illiterate and ignorant they may be, they will accept the new technology. If

98 ENERGY POLICY February 1993