energy and climate change mitigation in japan...doraemon is a japanese comic series created by...
TRANSCRIPT
Mikiko Kainuma and Toshihiko MasuiNational Institute for Environmental Studies
GTSP Technical ReviewPacific Northwest National laboratory
Washington, May 23, 2007
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in Japan
http://2050.nies.go.jp, http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/
2020 20502000
Long-term target year
Release of A
IM result
Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend
Forecasting
Back-casting
Normative target world
Reference future world
Service demand change
by changing social behavior, lifestyles
and institutions
Mitigation Technology
developmentRequiredPolicy
intervention and Investment
required intervention policy and measures
Envi
ronm
enta
l pre
ssur
e
Checkingyear(2015)
Checkingyear(2025)
Requ
ired
int
erve
ntion
3. We need“Trend Breaks”
to realize visions2. We need
“Visions”
1.Target may be tough
50% reductionsIn the world
Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative world
A Low-Carbon project
70% reductionsIn Japan
Depicting socio-
economic visions in 2050
Estimating energy service
demands
Exploring innovations for energy demands
and energy supplies
Quantifying energy
demand and supplyto estimate
CO2emissions
Checking potentials for energy
supply
Achieving energy-related CO2
emissions target
Step4
Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
Step1
Step2
Step3
Step5
AIM, NIES
Social and Cultural ValuesComfortable and Convenient
Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally
Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle
Decentralized/CommunityUrban/Personal
Slow, Natural-orientedVivid, Technology-driven
Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”Vision A “Doraemon”
Two different visions for societies in 2050 in Japan
Akemi Imagawa
Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.
Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.
©藤子プロ・小学館
©STUDIO GHIBLI
AIM, NIES
Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in Japan
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-
女(千人) 男(千人)Female (thousand) male (thousand)year 2000 2050
A BPopulation (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 38 35.8
2.71 2.19 2.38Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1
year 2000 2050A B
126.9 94.5 100.317.4 38 35.8
Average member of household 2.71 2.19 2.3827.6 42.6 35.1
Demographic Transitions in Japan: Age/Gender ProfileDemographic Transitions in Japan: Age/Gender Profile
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-
女(千人) 男(千人)
A 男B 男
A 女
B 女
male
female
age age
Female (thousand) male (thousand)
AIM, NIES
Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in JapanDemographic Transitions in Japan: household ProfileDemographic Transitions in Japan: household Profile
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
世帯数(百万世帯)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
世帯数(百万世帯) その他
ひとり親と子
夫婦のみ
夫婦と子
単独
others
Single-parent and children
Parent and children
Couple without children
Single
The
num
ber o
f hou
seho
ld (t
hous
and)
The
num
ber o
f hou
seho
ld (t
hous
and)
Scenario A Scenario B
AIM, NIES
Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in Japan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050year
tril.
yen
at 2
000
pric
e
Scenario A Scenario B
Annual GDP growth rate- Scenario A: approximately 2% of GDP per capita- Scenario B: Approximately 1% of GDP per capita
GDP projection
In scenario A, the production of primary industries and secondary industries will increase. Nevertheless, it is estimated that 20% of energy savings can be achieved through reduced output of energy-incentive raw materials and energy efficiency improvements. In scenario B, it is estimated that further 40% of energy reduction is possible by industrial transformations and energy efficiency improvement.
AIM, NIES
Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in JapanSector-wise productions in 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Agric
ultur
eFo
restr
yFis
hing
Coal
minin
gCr
ude o
il & N
G mi
ning
Othe
r mini
ngFo
od pr
oduc
ts &
beve
rage
sTe
xtiles
Pulp,
pape
r & pa
per p
rodu
ctsPu
blish
ing &
ingCh
emica
l mate
rials
Chem
ical p
rodu
ctsPe
troleu
m pr
oduc
tsCo
al pr
oduc
tsNo
n-me
tallic
mine
ral
Pig i
ron &
crud
e stee
lOt
her s
teel p
rodu
ctsNo
n-fer
rous
meta
lFa
brica
ted m
etal p
rodu
ctsMa
chine
ryEl
ec.m
achin
e, eq
uip. &
supp
lies
Tran
spor
t equ
ipmen
tPr
ecisi
on in
strum
ents
Othe
r man
ufactu
ring
Cons
tructi
onTh
erma
l pow
er pl
ant
Non-
therm
al po
wer p
lant
Town
gas
Wate
r sup
plyW
holes
ale &
retai
l trad
eFin
ance
& in
sura
nce
Real
estat
eRa
ilway
tran
spor
tRo
ad tr
ansp
ort
Wate
r tra
nspo
rtAi
r tra
nspo
rtOt
her t
rans
port
Comm
unica
tions
Publi
c ser
vice a
ctivit
iesOt
her s
ervic
e acti
vities
<Sectors>
Tri.
yen
at 2
000
pric
e
2000 2050 A 2050 B
The industrial structure would shift towards service economy. Productions of electric/transport machinery industries would also increase enhancing industrial competitiveness of manufacturing sectors. Social infrastructure would be further developed and the volumes of steel or cement stocked in such infrastructures would increase considerably. An innovative recycling technology would be developed and the stocked materials within the society could be re-used for high-quality purposes. Application of such technologies would lead to improvements in resource usage rates of raw materials.
AIM, NIES
Primary Energy Use in JapanPrimary Energy Use in Japan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
ref_A ref_B
Year
Mto
e
coal oil gas hydro nuclear others
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
red_A red_B
Year
Mto
e
coal oil gas hydro nuclear others
Reference scenarios
Reduction scenarios
AIM, NIES
Electricity Generation in JapanElectricity Generation in Japan
020406080
100120
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
refA refB
Year
Mto
e
coal oil gas hydro nuclear others
020406080
100120
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
redA redB
Year
Mto
e
coal oil gas hydro nuclear others
AIM, NIES
Technology Development and Diffusion in JapanTechnology Development and Diffusion in Japan
: New technology
Technologies in power sector in 2050
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2000 andreference
red_A
red_BConventional CoalIGCCIGCC with CCSOILConventional GasACCACC with CCSNuclearHydroHydro (pumped)GEOBMSWind
Advanced combined cycle
AIM, NIES
Technology Development and Diffusion in JapanTechnology Development and Diffusion in Japan
0 5 10 15 20
high eff icient sintering furnacehigh eff icient revolving furnace
high eff icient electric furnacehigh eff icient process in cement
high eff icient clinker coolerFluidized catalytic cracking of
high eff icient boiler (coal)high eff icient boiler (oil)
high eff icient boiler (gas)high eff icient industrial furnace
high eff icient industrial furnace (oil)high eff icient industrial furnace
high eff icient mortorfuel conversion (oil to gas)
fuel conversion (coal to gas)fuel conversion (gas to biomass)
PVbio fuel (residential)
bio fuel (commercial)bio fuel (transportation)
eff icinet insulation houseefficinet insulation building
hybrid vehicle
MtC
redA redB
Demand side CO2 reduction by advanced technologies in 2050
PV: one million kW in scenario A; two million kW in scenario B
AIM, NIES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Mill
ion
hous
es
1999 standard
1992 standard
1980 standard
Without insulation
1999 standard
1992 standard
1980 standard
Without insulation
Projection of residential building stock by insulation levelProjection of residential building stock by insulation level
Projection based on present policy
Projection based on enhanced policy
Residential sector CO2 reduction potential: 50%
17
10
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
Ene
rgy
dem
ands
(Mto
e)
Change of numbers ofhouseholdsIncrease of servicedemand per householdDecrease of servicedemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity
H2
Solar
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Energy demands in2000
Hi-Insulated housing
Energy Effiency
Social Innovations
TechnologicalInnovations
Step4
AIM, NIES
70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050
CO
2 em
issi
on in
20
50
2000年
CO 2排出量
Scenario A :2050
Activity26
CO
2 em
isis
ion
in 2
000
EE79
CI27
CI77
SD2 9
CCS39
(MtC)
209
19
30510
30
13
77
39
Energy Intensity Imp.Carbon Intensity Imp.
Reduction of service demands
• Efficient air conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting system
-
• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof
• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of
households• Energy efficient improvement of
furnace and motor etc.• Fuel switching from coal/oil to
natural gas
• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system
• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function
• Public transportation system• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric
battery vehicles, Fuel cell battery vehicles
• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS
• Nuclear energy• Effective use of electricity in night time
with storage• Hydrogen supply with low carbon
energy sources
Energy Intensity Imp.
Carbon Intensity Imp.
Reduction of service demands
Energy Intensity Imp.
Carbon Intensity Imp.
Carbon Intensity Imp.
CCS
Activity
[Industrial]
[Transportation]
[Energy transformation]
[Residential and commercial]
[Society]
2000年
CO 2排出量
CO
2 em
issi
on in
199
0
70%
redu
ctio
n
EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demands
Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions
Low-carbon scenario study in Japan
AIM, NIES
Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (1)Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (1)
Political leadership to achieve a low-carbon society should be a main driving force. This is coupled with energy security issues.Both supply-side and demand-side management are essential.Energy supply side constraints are limitations of available energy resources and demand-side constraints include preference of energy sources by consumers. These lead to deployment of new technologies.Energy demands in industry, transportation, household, and commercial sector in 2050 can be reduced by approximately 40-45% below the 2000 level by accelerating social technological innovations and energy technology development, as well as by developing appropriate infrastructure and by transforming the industrial structure. These can also be driven by private sectorinvestment to increase competitiveness in international markets.
AIM, NIES
Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (2)Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (2)
Passenger transport demand reduces due to several factors which include decrease in population, reduction in average trip distance via development of “compact city” aimed at secure and safe society, and promotion of public transportation. More efficient vehicles, such as hybrid vehicles or electric motor vehicles and vehicles with lower carbon intensity fuels will be developed and deployed to support high-quality lifestyle.The current average lifetime of dwellings in Japan is around 35 years and most existing dwellings will be rebuilt by 2050. It means that there are many chances to shift to highly-insulated dwellings equipped with new energy-saving appliances.In order to achieve a low-carbon society without missing opportunities for various investments on capital formation and technology development, it is necessary to set up the national goals (i.e. the vision of a low-carbon society) at an early stage, establish the abatement schemes, and realize a society that internalizes the negative externalities of carbon dioxide emissions. In this process, it stimulates and accelerated social and technological innovations that help in getting an advantage in international competition in the future low-carbon world.
Thank you!Thank you!
http://2050.nies.go.jp,
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/
Please visit our web sites for more information!
Watersupply &demand
:Model
:Output of model
Macroeconomic
Activity
Populationand
householdmodel
Energybalance
table
Popu
latio
n, L
abor
Service
Efficiency
Passenger Trns.demand model
Freight Trns.demand model
CG
E m
odel
Household Prd.& lifestyle model
Residential energyservice model
Commercial energyservice model
Industrial production model
Stock
Preference of household
Production amount
Investment
Energy snapshotTool of makingenergy balance
table:Data flow
Wat
er m
anag
emen
t mod
el
Stock
Mat
eria
l sto
ck &
flow
mod
el
Bui
ldin
g dy
nam
ics
mod
el
Energy supply & demand
Stra
tegi
c da
taba
se
Endu
sem
odel
Residentialsector
Commercialsector
Industrialsector
Transportationsector
Energy Trns.sector
GHGHealth effect
Water leakag
eWaste
GHG GHG
Water pollutant
GHGAIM
/Air
Ene
rgy
Sup
ply
mod
el
Air pollutant
Air pollutant
Air pollutant
Air pollutant
Backcasting model
GHG Waste
Air pollutant
Energy snapshottool
Endu
sem
odel
Population and household model
Mat
eria
l sto
ck
and
flow
mod
elEnergy supply
model
Stra
tegi
c da
taba
se
Enduse[Air]model
Backcast model
Wat
er m
anag
emen
t mod
el
CG
E m
odel
Building dynamics model
Transportation Demandmodel
Models for analyzing low-carbon society and sustainable development
Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050
Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%) Average number of person per household
2.7 2.2 2.4
GDP Tril.JPY 538 1059 (197%) 693 (129%)Share of production primary % 1.8% secondary % 39.9% tertiary % 58.4%
Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 2078 (126%) 1739 (105%)Building dynamics Model &Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model
Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1297 1016 (78%) 794 (61%) Private car % 53% 27% 53% Public transport % 40% 62% 34% Walk/bycycle % 8% 8% 13%Freight transport volume bill. t・km 578 525 (91%) 458 (79%)
100 142 (142%) 113 (113%) Steel production Mil.t 107 40 (37%) 40 (37%) Etylen production Mil.t 8 4 (50%) 4 (50%) Cement production Mil.t 82 40 (49%) 40 (49%) Paper production Mil.t 32 16 (50%) 27 (85%)( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000
Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model
model
Population and Householdmodel
Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model
Transportation demandmodel & Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model
Industrial production index
1.0%32.3%66.7%
2050year unit 2000
1.4%35.4%63.3%
A B
Step2