energy and politics · energy and politics the geopolitics of energy security . global and european...
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Florian Baumann Center for Applied Policy Research Research Group on European Affairs
Maria-‐Theresia-‐Str. 21 81675 Munich
Energy and Politics
The Geopolitics of Energy Security
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Global and European Energy Challenges
• finiteness of resources worldwide an especially in Europe
• rising global demand
• old and new conflicts in resource-rich countries / regions
• resource nationalism
• import dependency
• volatility of fossil fuel prices
• global warming / climate change
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R/P Ration 2008
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World EU USA OECD Russia Middle East
Oil Gas Coal
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World Energy Production and Consumption
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TPES TFC TPES-‐TFC Oil: TPES-‐TFC
Gas: TPES-‐TFC
1973
2006
2008
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Global and European Energy Challenges
• finiteness of resources worldwide an especially in Europe
• rising global demand
• old and new conflicts in resource-rich countries / regions
• resource nationalism
• import dependency
• volatility of fossil fuel prices
• global warming / climate change
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Global Oil Exports
"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel.“
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Import Dependency
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Import Dependency
Oil Gas "Russian" Gas
EU-‐27
Bulgaria
Germany
France
Poland
Latvia
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Resource Nationalism
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Global and European Energy Challenges
• finiteness of resources worldwide an especially in Europe
• rising global demand
• old and new conflicts in resource-rich countries / regions
• resource nationalism
• import dependency
• volatility of fossil fuel prices
• global warming / climate change
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Global Oil Exports
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Golden Triangle
Energy Security
Sustainability Competitiveness
⇒ necessary trade-off between these objectives ⇒ sustainability as (false) priority? ⇒ a new emphasize on energy security?
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What is Energy Security?
• usual definition: reliable supply and affordable prices (Daniel Yergin)
• security of demand: energy exports as essential contribution to state budget and necessary for the return on investment
• minimization of the risk of energy crises using the tools of politics (Clingendael)
⇒ Energy security is a underdeveloped concept!
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Energy Security as multidimensional concept
• prices and availability are not sufficient for conceptualization
• time-horizon: short-term vs. long-term risks • energy security: status quo vs. process • 4 dimensions:
1. internal policy 2. economic dimension 3. geopolitics 4. security policy
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Four dimension, various facets Internal Policy
diversity of fuel mix
share of single sources
legal framework & regula[ons
emergency planning
Economic Dimension
price vola[lity
interna[onal markets
upstream-‐ & extrac[on-‐investment
technologies & energy intensity
Geopoli[cs
poli[cal stability
power shi]
energy governance
interna[onal coopera[on
Security
risk assement
intelligence & monitoring
physical protec[on
crisis reac[on
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The New Great Game
1. Rising import dependency induces a major shift in political power resources.
2. The higher tension on energy markets can trigger local / regional / international conflicts about remaining fossil fuels.
3. Access to energy resources is one of the driving forces of international relations.
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Energy Policy for Europe
The four pillars of the EU’s energy policy:
1. internal energy market
2. energy security
3. efficiency, energy savings and renewables
4. interconnectivity
+ “spirit of solidarity” (Art. 194 TFEU)
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EU as an Actor in International Energy Politics (I)
• COM as driver for (geographical) diversification (Nabucco, etc.)
• international cooperation /dialogue: Energy Charter, early warning mechanism (EU-Russia), BASREC, EU-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, …
• Neighbourhood policy: Energy Community, Eastern partnership, …
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EU as an Actor in International Energy Politics (II)
• strategic deficit
• focus on internal aspects of energy politics / energy security (IEM + ETS)
• barely any competences for external energy policy on EU level
• national restrains
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2nd Strategic Energy Review
Solidarity as best answer on the challenges to energy security:
• infrastructures and diversification
• external energy relations
• strategic oil and gas stocks
• energy efficiency
• indigenous energy resources
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Energy Solidarity
• What do I mean by energy solidarity? – … more than mutual emergency assistance, – … not necessarily more communitarization, – … but a fundamental value of EU-integration.
• Preconditions: – define common (energy) interests – elaborate common risk perceptions – formulate common strategies
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The EU and Energy Geopolitics
• The EU should concentrate on …
– … strengthening global energy governance,
– … a joint approach on suppliers, transit countries and other major consumers,
– … a common risk assessment and crisis reaction.
• The EU should not …
– … build pipelines and other infrastructures,
– … prioritize one of the three strategic objectives.
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NATO and Energy Security
• NATO’s interest for energy: military origin vs. political component
• (possible) added-value: limited but significant – monitoring: choke points and critical infrastructures
– training of security forces in producer and transit countries
– collective emergency planning and crisis reaction
– energy diplomacy
– deterrence
• synergies from EU-NATO cooperation on energy security
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Energy and Politics
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Q & A
Thank you for your attention!