energy and environment: key challenges for the automotive industry dr philippe schulz, renault · 5...

Philippe SCHULZ June 11, 2008Energy 2020 - Citigroup

Dr Philippe Schulz, Renault

Energy and Environment: Key challenges for the automotive industry

2Philippe SCHULZ June 11, 2008Energy 2020 - Citigroup

GLOBAL WARMING

URBAN AIR POLLUTION

RESOURCES DEPLETION

THREE MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES AT THE SAME TIME �


GLOBAL WARMING

URBAN AIR POLLUTION

RESOURCES DEPLETIONTOP 3 CO2

ENVIRONMENT& HEALTH

LIFE CYCLE�UP TO RECYCLING

� THREE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RENAULT


TOP 3 CO2ENVIRONMENT

& HEALTHLIFE CYCLE

�UP TO RECYCLING

FOCUS ON CO2 & ENERGY CHALLENGESCO2 reduction = Fuel economy


GLOBAL WARMING � CO2 & EnergyIPCC 2007 STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

3.0°C

2.5°C

2.0°C

1.5°C

1.0°C

0.5°C

0.0°C

-0.5°C1900 2000 2100

Scenario « Oil & Coal �Business as Usual »

« SmoothBreakthrough »Scenario

>4°C : Significant extinction around the globe

20 to 30 % plant and animal species at risk of extinctionResilience of tropical amazonian wild forestecosystem (! Savanna)

Risk of 9 % species exctinctionIncreased risks of heat waves, flood, stormsand water stress

AVERAGE EARTH TEMPERATURE INCREASE SCENARII


Cars and anthropogenic CO2 emissions

" Personal cars are responsible of about 12 % of the European CO2 emissions" Europe takes the lead of car CO2 emission reduction

(confirmed by Dec 19, 2007 Proposal of EU Commission)

g/km


How to reduce fuel consumption ?

" A global energy approach

# Energy use# Best use of energy (cost/benefit and CO2 WtW analysis)# Low carbon fuels

" An individual vehicle-based approach

# CO2 valuation of technology and customer value# Roadmaps and new business models: EV


An unsustainable appetite for energy

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearOther Renewables

Hydroelectricity

Fossil Energy

Current IEA scenario plans increasing demand by 52%, mainly through Fossil Energy

Source: IEA


Oil use: More and more for Transport�

# Oil & Transport: more than 50 % of usages in 2005 and 65 % in 2030# Only alternatives are biofuels, gas (CNG, LPG) and electricity

World oil demand growth(Mb/d)

105

83

Croissanceannuellemoyenne

2005 - 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Transport +1.9%

Heating -0.5%

Petrochemistry +2.0%Electricity -0.9%

+ 1% / year

Natural gasas alternative


On-road fuel consumption worldwide�

OECDNorth

AmericaOECDPacific

WesternEurope

Middle East

LatinAmerica Russia

& EasternEurope

China Africa India Rest of World

1 billion inhabitants

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

1,0

1,2

1,4

Tons of oil equivalentper capita and per year

BiofuelsDieselGasoline

2006:Total road fuel consumption: 1600 MtoeTotal Biofuels consumption: 27 Mtoe

OECDNorth

AmericaOECDPacific

WesternEurope

Middle East

LatinAmerica Russia

& EasternEurope

China Africa India Rest of World

1 billion inhabitants

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

1,0

1,2

1,4

Tons of oil equivalentper capita and per year

BiofuelsDieselGasoline

2006:Total road fuel consumption: 1600 MtoeTotal Biofuels consumption: 27 Mtoe


Well to Wheels CO2 analysis


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

ProductionCombustion Photosynthesis

CO2 g/km

Biodiesel 30%

Hybrid diesel

Diesel

Hybrid gasoline

CNG(Distri < 4000Km)

Gasoline

Bioethanol 85%60% wheat, 30% Beet ,

10% sugar cane

LPG

Data: JRC- EUCAR- CONCAWE

Well to Wheels CO2 analysis


Fuel Economy and CO2 reduction at RenaultAlready a long history of progress

Gasoline

Diesel

Clio I 1991 8,2 l - 193 g/km

Clio II 1999 6,7 l - 158 g/km

Clio III 2007 5,9 l - 139 g/km

R19 1993 6,5 l - 172 g/km

Mégane I 2000 5,2 l - 138 g/km

Mégane II 2006 4,5 l - 120 g/km


Renault Commitment 2009Be in the top three in terms of CO2 emissions reduction

294,000 785,000

2006 120 g/km 140 g/km

333,330 1,000,000

2009 120 g/km 140 g/km

323,000 867,000

2007 120 g/km 140 g/km


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1,000,000

1/3 emitting less than 120 g/km CO2

1 million vehicles emitting less than 140 g/km CO2 in 2008

42 versions

16 versions

121-140101-120European Union sales

(thousand vehicles)

150 versions

48 versions

333,333

Emission level (g/km CO2)

A WIDER OFFER UNDER 140 g/km CO2 IS A MARKET OPPORTUNITY


AverageCustomer value:

52 �/ g/km

1g CO2/km0,04 l/100 km

Fuel consumption

CO2 national taxations

Each gramme of saved CO2 per km has a customer value


CO2Technologies

0%0€/g

2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

20€/g

40€/g

60€/g

100€/g

80€/g

10%

Customer value

52�/g/km

Vehicle managementPowertrain technologies

CO2 benefit

Confidentiel Renault


& &

Low fuel consumption, tax management, affordabilityto a wide majority of customers supported by the ecological efficiency.

Renault eco² signature introduced in May 2007�

Produced in anIso-14001-certified plant

PRODUCTION

Below 140 g/CO2or biofuel-compatible

CO2 EMISSIONS

95% reusable by weight &at least 5% of recycled plastics

END-OF-LIFE

ECOLOGICAL & ECONOMICAL


A favourable context to new energy paradigms in Transport

Energy SecurityClimate Change

CO2

Energy Diversification

Fuel infrastructure

Air pollution

Cost of Ownership Environmental Awareness& sustainable mobility

Fuel Economy

Market opportunitiesCustomer expectations

Policy drivers


Fuel markets more complex and diverse

Local resources availability

Policy

Environmentalbenefits

• Bio

Etha

nol

• Bio

Dies

el•C

NG

• Coa

l to

Liqu

ids

• Bio

mas

s to

liqu

ids

• LPG

•�• Die

sel

• Gas

olin

e

France

Brazil

China

IranSouth Korea

Germany

And EVs ?


What�s new on EVs ?

" 1842 : first electric car built by Davidson

" 1899 : first electric race car to exceed 100km/hr

" 1925 : Renault electric car assembly line

" 1997 : The Praxitèle experience" 1998+: The electric Kangoo


Electric cars : advantages and drawbacks

" Zero exhaust gas emission

" Torque at low speed

" Silence : noise-free engine, only rolling noise

" Autonomy : low energy density of batteries vs liquid fuels

☺

☺☺

%

&


Three reasons for a massive deployment of electric cars during the next decade

" 1. Technology & Cost

" 2. Sociology & Market

" 3. Regulations & Incentives


Technology & Cost

Wh/kg

ENER

GY

DEN

SITY

BATTERY CHEMISTRY

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH Li-ion Others

YESTERDAY

TODAY

TOMORROW

0

600

200

100

LI-ION : PRICE EVOLUTIONLI-ION : PRICE EVOLUTION

" Lightweight Li-ion batteries allow autonomy ≥ 100 km

" Performance, safety, recyclability to be compatible with massive

dissemination


Sociology and Market

13%37%

50%

< 20 km/day 20 � 60 > 60

" An increasing fraction of the world population living in cities

# 2006 : > 50%

# 2050 : > 70%

" Specific need of mobility in

suburban areas

# Average distance covered daily

by a suburban driver (Example:

« Ile de France »)


Regulations & Incentives

" Ban or restriction of circulation in cities for high emission vehicles

" Bonus-malus and taxes on cars depending on CO2 emission


NEW URBAN MOBILITY: ISRAEL� EVs

50Km50Km

GEOGRAPHY1 POLICY & REGULATIONS2

BUSINESS MODEL3


Massive deployment plans in Israël and Denmark starting in 2011


Vehicle and powertrain roadmap

CO2 emission reduction

Pollu

tant

em

issi

on re

duct

ion

(NO

x+10

PM)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Euro6 D

Euro4/6 G

Euro5 D

Bio-Fuels1st Gen

EGR LPvariable Swirl

Extra Heavydownsizing

MildHybrid

MicroHybrid

Milddownsizing

Milddownsizing

GDI

Heavydownsizing

e-driveHybrid

Diesel

Gasoline

Hybrids

2010 2015

2020

Thermal energy

conversion

Bio-Fuels2nd Gen

Electrical

Plug-in hybrid

Next gen.Battery EV

Battery EV

Battery EV + Fuel Cell + on-board H2 ?


Conclusions

" Low carbon fuels and cars considered as a single system# Use of integrated approach ( Well to Wheels)# Cost/benefit analysis

" Technology valuation" Customer value

" Renault’s approach# Ecological and economical (Renault eco²) to get rapidly massive

results# Ambitious vehicle roadmaps with new business models (eg EVs)

energy and environment: key challenges for the automotive industry dr philippe schulz, renault · 5...

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