energy and food production
TRANSCRIPT
Agro-Ecosystems, 2 (1975, published 1976) 195--210 195 © Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam -- Printed in The Netherlands
ENERGY AND FOOD PRODUCTION*
ASIT K. BISWAS and MARGARET 1~. BISWAS *•
Office of the Science Advisor, Department of the Environment, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada)
** President Biswas & Associates Ltd., 15 Rothwell Drive, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada)
(Received November 30th, 1975)
ABSTRACT
Biswas, A.K. and Biswas, M.R., 1976. Energy and food production. Agro-Ecosystems, 2: 195--210.
The major items that would undoubtedly be in any agenda for immediate world action are population, food and energy, and their interrelationships. The strategies recommended at the World Food Conference relied heavily on the application of more energy -- in terms of pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation and machineries. In other words, the emphasis was to use the North American type of highly energy-intensive agriculture to increase yield in other parts of the world. Whether such a strategy was desirable in an era of energy crisis, when many of the developing countries were facing serious balance of payment deficits even to pay for their existing energy import bills was not seriously considered. Nor was the question considered whether such a policy was desirable and sustainable on a long-term basis. Agricultural practices in North America has become increasingly energy intensive. During the era of cheap energy prices, such massive and rapid industrialization of the agri- cultural production practices, made economic sense. In a different era, when energy prices are high and the point of diminishing return has been reached in many instances, we have to reexamine and perhaps re-orient some of our present production practices.
It is quite clear that we cannot feed the world by using the North American system of food production. The "green revolution" type of high-yielding agriculture that has been exported to some parts of the developing world is somewhat similar to western agriculture in that both are energy-intensive. The new strains of wheat, corn, rice, etc. need more fer- tilizers pesticides and irrigation to provide optimal yields. This is in contrast to native crops which did not.
In much of the developing world, however, significant increase in yield can be obtained by further small inputs of energy. A small energy input into low-intensity culture will in- crease yield much more than an identical input into a high-intensity production process. World malnutrition may also be alleviated by use of energy-related raw materials as food. The commercial viability of large-scale protein production from hydrocarbons is a distinct possibility, and there appears to be several advantages in further developing such processes.
The major items that would undoubtedly be in any agenda for immediate
*Based on a key-note speech given at the International Conference of Scientists for the Human Environment, Kyoto, Japan, November 16th--26th, 1975.
196
world action are population, food and energy, and their interrelationships. Thus, not surprisingly, a series of world gatherings have been held in these subjects, including the World Population Conference and the World Food Conference under the auspices of the United Nations (Biswas and Biswas, 1974a, 1975a).
Many more similar meetings will undoubtedly be held before mankind can even come close to practical solutions. The problems of population, food and energy, are not mutually exclusive: in fact they are closely interlinked. These three issues may be highly visible, but they are only three of the many real problems, all closely interrelated, that lie at the heart of the overall global crisis. As the U.S. Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger (1974), has pointed out: "Each of the problems we face -- of combating inflation and stimulating growth, of feeding the hungry and lifting the impoverished, of the scarcity of physical resources and the surplus of despair -- is part of the international global problem". Even a cursory analysis of this extremely complex situation will soon convince any sceptic that these problems are multidimensional and that no nation, however rich and powerful, can cope with them individually and unilaterally. Some of the problems indeed go far beyond the capacity of even a small group of the most powerful nations to solve. Also, action taken to combat these types of problems must be well planned and coordinated; otherwise, steps taken to alleviate them in one part of the world could create negative reverberations in another (Biswas and Biswas, 1976a). Thus, the time has come when politicians and policy-makers must look at these complex problems with a clear understanding of their interrelatedness and synergistic effects and not rely solely on the principle of reductionism to solve individual problems as they surface. Within this context and overall philosophy, the interrelationships between food and energy will be examined herein.
The world demand for food is expanding more rapidly than ever before in history. Constantly rising world demand necessitates an increase of about 25 million tons of cereals (wheat, coarse grains, and rice) every year over the present total of 1,200 million tons. The sudden drop in production in 1972, when the total world ou tpu t of food declined from the preceding year for the first time in 20 years because of world-wide adverse weather conditions, in- stead of the anticipated increase, created a serious food problem -- especially as two of the main grain-exporting countries, the United States and Canada, had instituted policies to reduce their large surpluses. Consequently, surplus wheat stock in exporting countries fell from 49 million tons in 1971--1972 to 29 million in 1972--1973 and still further in 1973--1974. Rice reserves were virtually exhausted.
Increase in populat ion and changes in its spatial distribution have aggravated the food situation during the last 35 years. Many geographical regions, but not Western Europe, were net exporters of grain immediately prior to the Second World War. The situation had changed drastically by 1975: all regions except North America and Australia and New Zealand are now net importers of grains. Beside population growth, rising affluence, agricultural inefficiency
197
and misguided political expediency have contr ibuted to the further aggrava- tion of the problem. Rising affluence is rapidly emerging as a major new claimant on the global food resources. Currently, the agricultural resources necessary to support one inhabitant of a more affluent country can support on an average five citizens of developing countries such as Bangladesh, Uganda or Colombia.
The gravity of the world food situation is illustrated by the fact that demand for food in developing countries is expected to increase at a rate of a b o u t 3.6%/year during the 1972--1985 period compared with an average increase of 2.6% during the preceding 12 years (M.R. Biswas, 1975). If this basic growth-rate is not attained, developing market economy countries will have to import 85 million tons of grain by 1985 in normal years and over 100 mil- lion tons in years of bad harvests. The magnitude of the problem becomes self- evident when the costs of such imports are visualized. At the average 1973-- 1974 cereal price of $200 per ton, their import bills in normal years will be- come $17 billion per year in 1985. These latter figures refer to cereals only: in addition other types of food will also have to be imported (United Nations, 1974). Comparisons of populat ion and per capita food product ion for the developed and developing countries and the world as a whole is shown in Fig.1.
Faced with this type of a critical situation, some of the world reactions have predictably fallen short of good housekeeping practices. The strategies put forward at the World Food Conference relied heavily on the application of more pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation and machineries: in other words, the emphasis was to use the North American type of highly energy-intensive agriculture to increase yield in other parts of the world. Whether such a strategy was desirable in an era of energy crisis, when many of the developing countries were facing serious balance of payment deficits even to pay for their existing energy import bills (Biswas and Biswas, 1975b), was not seriously considered. Nor was the question considered whether such a policy was desir- able and sustainable on a long-term basis.
The urgency of increasing the world food product ion should not be under- estimated. It is vitally important, however, to ensure that the strategies adopted to increase food product ion on a short-term basis can be sustained and effec- tively integrated with long-term policies. There is a very real danger that, in our efforts to increase food product ion in the short run on a crisis basis, we may adopt strategies which are self-defeating in the long run. In other words, there is a real possibility that we may find ourselves in a far more precarious situation in the mid- or late 1980s, when the demand for food will be much higher than it is today -- due to both higher populat ion and increased levels of affluence. This threat, comes from the likelihood that food product ion will level off, or even start to decline, with our present acceptance of and reliance on short-term, ad hoc, and ecologically unenlightened selfdefeating strategies. History is replete with telling examples from all corners of the world. As Dr M.K. Tolba, Executive Director of the U.N. Environment Programme (1974),
198
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pointed out in a very far-sighted speech at the World Food Conference, man must realize the importance of maximizing agricultural production without destroying the ecological basis on which our entire food production system rests, and this must be done on a long-term, sustaining basis.
The success story of continual increase in agricultural yields in North America is known to every school-boy, but what is not known is the fact that modem agriculture has become increasingly energy intensive during this peri- od. Let us briefly examine some major changes in the agricultural sector during the past four decades. In the United States, the number of operating farms has been reduced from 6.3 million in 1940 to about 2.8 ~nillion at present, with nearly one million disappearing since 1961. Consequently average farm size has increased from 167 acres in 1940 to 297 acres in 1960, and close to
199
400 acres in 1970. The farm population, during the same period, has dwindled drastically -- from about 31.9 million (23.2% of the population) in 1940 to 9.4 million (4.8% of the population) in 1970 (Perelman, 1972). At the same time, the number of animals used declined from a peak of more than 22 mil- lion in 1920 to a very small number at present. Expressed in a different man- ner, it means that during the last few decades the total agricultural production in the U.S. has increased significantly and at the same time there has been a drastic reduction in the number of farm workers and animals. The general experience has been very similar in other developed nations like Canada or Great Britain (Biswas and Biswas, 1976b; Leach, 1975a, b).
One may accordingly ask how such an apparent d ichotomy can take place. The answer is fairly simple: it was made possible by vast infusion of energy. In an era of cheap energy prices, such massive and rapid industrialization of the agricultural production practices made economic sense. However, in a dif- ferent era, when energy prices are high and the point of diminishing return has been reached in many instances, we have to re-examine and perhaps re-orient some of our present production practices.
Let us consider the developments in Great Britain as an example. As agri- cultural workers left for urban centres, they were replaced by a variety of machines. Currently there are more tractors on British farms than employed men, as is shown in Fig.2 (after Blaxter, 1973). Another important factor is the fact that the horsepower of the machines has also been increasing continu-
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ously. For example, most of the tractors used in the 1930s were in the 20-h.p. range. In contrast, more than 70% of the tractors sold at present are of over 50 h.p.; the corresponding figure for 50-h.p. tractors was only 45% as late as 1964.
Paradoxically all these developments can be looked at in a somewhat dif- ferent light. Blaxter (1973) suggests that the present fuel consumption in British agriculture represents the expenditure of 300 horsepower hours on every acre of crops and grass. If it is assumed that a real horse did 1,500 horse- power hours of work a year, and that all the present agricultural machines have a mean efficiency of 33%, then our present power expenditure is equi- valent to the use of one horse per 5 acres compared with one real horse to 25 to 35 acres in the 1920s and 1930s. Thus, power input to British agricultures has increased by 500 to 700% within the short period of only four to five decades.
Machines, however, are not the only form of energy input into the agricul- tural production process that have increased significantly in recent years. We have increased the use of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, propionic acid for grain preservation, and a host of other chemicals which all need further ener- gy for their manufacturing processes. For example, 9,000 kcal, 1,450 kcal and 1,000 kcal, of energy are necessary to n~anufacture one pound of nitro- gen, phosphorous, and potassium fertilizers respectively. Further energy is necessary to apply these and other chemicals to the land and also to manufac- ture the machines that are used for their application. In addition, modern agriculture has been consuming more and more fertilizers, insecticides, and herbicides. Table I shows the increase in the number of tractors, combined harvesters and thrashers, and the amount of nitrogenous and phosphatic fer- tilizers used in some selected countries of the world from 1966 to 1973. The data used in this table have been compiled from various United Nations publications.
Energy accounting of crop product ion can be carried out in several ways. For example, Pimentel et al. (1973} have used process analysis, Hirst (1973) has used input- -output analysis and Heichel (1973) used total aggregation on the GNP basis. Process analysis tends to be quite laborious since all inputs and outputs through the entire skein of processes have to be analysed. Com- plete analysis is time consuming, and unless such an analysis is complete, it could be misleading. Processes analysed should be the most typical, otherwise errors could be quite significant. The input- -output process has the advantage of tracing energy flows between different sectors of the economy by using national input- -output tables. However, availability of data, especially latest information, high level of data aggregation that makes it difficult to separate individual products and inputs, and the accuracy of coefficients leave much to be desired. Input - -output data for most of the nations of the world are not available, and also when available they are out of date. For example, the latest input- -output data available for the United States is for 1963 and 1966 for Canada and 1968 for the United Kingdom.
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Pimentel et al. (1973), in their process analysis, decided to limit the con- sideration of direct and indirect energy inputs one step back from the crop production (corn in this case). Thus, the inputs for farm machinery included the making of steel, then rolling, casting and general assembly, but did not include energy inputs for mining iron ore, coal, or other resources. The aver- age corn yield in the U.S. increased from 34 bushels/acre in 1945 to 81 bushels in 1970. The process analysis showed that it was made possible by a 16-fold increase in nitrogen fertilizer, 12-fold increase in potassium fertilizer, and ap- proximately 10-fold increase in electricity consumption. The only form of energy input that declined during this period was labour: from 23 h/acre in 1945 to 9 h/acre in 1970. The changes in various forms of energy inputs are shown in Table II (after Pimentel et al., 1973).
Not much work has been done so far on the energy balance studies of different types of crops. The techniques for such analyses have not ye t been properly developed. Blaxter (1973), however, prepared one such analysis for potatoes for Great Britain which is shown in Fig.3. The process is self-ex- planatory. The ratio of energy input to ou tpu t was shown to be 0.87.
Analysis of the North American agricultural practices show that we have reached the end of an era when increasing energy subsidies will increase food production concomitantly. We have reached the point of diminishing return when further increase in yield are progressively harder to achieve. It is also becoming evident that increasing the energy input is unlikely to bring further reduction of farm labour.
From this discussion it should be quite clear that we cannot feed the world by using the North American system of food production. The dimensions of the problem, and the resource constraints faced, can be gauged from the fol- lowing calculations. If we assume that the populat ion of India is 550 million,
TABLE II
Average energy input per acre of corn production
Inputs 1945 1950 1954 1959 1964 1970
Labour (h) 23 18 17 14 11 9 Machinery (103 kcal) 180 250 300 350 420 420 Gasoline (gallons) 15 17 19 20 21 22 Nitrogen (lb) 7 15 27 41 58 112 Phosphorous ( lb) 7 10 12 16 18 31 Potassium ( lb) 5 10 18 30 29 60 Seeds for planting (bushels) 0.17 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.33 0.33 Irrigation (10 s kcal) 19 23 27 31 34 34 Insecticides ( lb) 0 0 .10 ~0.30 0.70 1.00 1.00 Herbicides ( lb) 0 0 .05 0.10 0.25 0.38 1.00 Drying (103 kcal) 10 30 60 100 120 120 Electricity (103 kcal) 32 54 100 140 203 310 Transportation (103 kcal) 20 30 45 60 70 70 Corn yie lds (bushels) 34 38 41 54 68 81
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and we feed each Indian the U.S. equivalent of 3,000 cal/day, instead of their present 2,000 cal, India would need more energy for the food sector alone than she is currently using for all purposes. If we consider the world as a whole on the same basis, we will have to use 80% of the global energy expendi~ ture for the food sector alone.
The energy intensiveness of the present agricultural system of much of the developed world can also be visualized in a different way. Let us assume that corn represents the typical energy input for crop production (its energy re- quirement lie between the extremes of high-energy-demand fruit production
204
and low-energy-demand small grain production) and the North American level of agricultural practice will be used to feed a world population of four billion (estimate for 1975). In 1970, according to Table II, corn required an energy input of 2.9 million kcal/acre, equivalent to 80 gallons of gasoline (Pimentel et al., 1973). Under these assumptions, we would need the energy equivalent of 488 billion gallons of fuel to feed a populat ion of four billion for 1 year on an average U.S. diet. At this rate of energy consumption (and if we assume that only petroleum is used as the necessary energy input for food production), the total proven world petroleum reserves will only last for 29 years, if used exclusively for the agricultural sector. If we consider potential crude oil reserves of 2,000 billion barrels, an estimate that seems to be mostly favoured (Warman, 1971), it will last for approximately 107 years, if used exclusively for food product ion under the identical set of assumptions.
The "green revolution" type of high-yielding agriculture that has been ex- ported to some parts of the developing world is somewhat similar to western agriculture in that both are energy-intensive. The new strains of wheat, corn, rice, etc., need more fertilizers and pesticides to provide optimal yields. In addition, careful water-control, or irrigation, is an absolute necessity. This is in contrast to native crops which did not. Irrigation is highly energy intensive. For example, each litre of water weighs 1 kg, and if it is assumed that 20.6 million litres of water are necessary to produce 5,000 kg of corn/ha in the sub-tropics (Addison, 1961), the energy cost of moving that quant i ty of water alone is about 35 million kcal (Pimentel et al., 1974). If similar prac- tice was used in the United States, irrigation would have been the largest single user of energy in the farm (Steinhart and Steinhart, 1974).
The present emphasis on monocul ture means that even though there are more than 80,000 edible species, only 50 or so are being actively cultivated. Currently 15 species provide nearly 90% of the world crops, and they occupy about 75% of the total tilled land of the world. These 15 crops are wheat, rice, corn, sorghum, millet, rye, barley, cassava, sweet potato, potato, coconut , banana, common bean, soybean and peanut. We have been experimenting with the gene-pool to maximize certain features of a few crops and to suppress some "undesirable" features. Often we have sacrificed quali- ties such as hardiness or resistance to diseases, pests, and adverse climates, for higher yields. Such universal homogenization is fraught with danger, and we must remember that the further we deviate from the original characteristics of plants, the more energy and controlled conditions will generally be necessary to obtain the optimal yield.
This does not mean, however, that we are advocating no use of fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation. In much of the developing world, significant increase in yield can be obtained by further small inputs of energy. This is because a small energy input into low-intensity culture will increase yield much more than an identical energy input into high-intensity product ion process. For example, application of the first 60 kg of nitrogen/ha to rice in the Philippines increased the yield from 4,900 kg to 6,150 kg -- an improvement of 1,250 kg. However,
205
when the fertilizer input was increased once again by 60 kg, from 120 kg to 180 kg/ha, the yield went up from 7,050 kg to 7,300 -- an improvement of only 250 kg. Similarly, the first 60 kg of nitrogen fertilizer improved the wheat yield in India from 3,844 kg to 4,230 kg/ha -- an increase of 1,386 kg. But if the input was increased from 180 kg to 240 kg, it improved the yield by only 34 kg -- from 6,651 kg to 6,685 kg.
For many of the developing countries, increase in the energy input of the agricultural production processes will significantly increase crop yields. In 1967, the Science Advisory Committee to the U.S. President carried out an analysis of energy inputs and their relation to the average aggregate yield of major crops. The energy input included human, animal, and mechanized power and was expressed in h.p./ha. Fig.4 is reproduced from that report with some modi- fications. It shows many of the developing countries to be within a minimal
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power range, and the Committee, not surprisingly, concluded that " the de- veloping free world is far short of the power required for agricultural efficiency". The efficiency in the report was limited to the consideration of maximization of yield per hectare. In that era of cheap energy, efficiency in energy use was not a major consideration.
Even though the majority of developing countries can improve yield by increasing energy inputs to agriculture, the mot to should not be "more energy" but more "efficient use of energy". We should not try a direct transfer of technology of the Western countries where 5 to 10 cal of energy are being used at the margin to obtain only 1 food calorie. It is really one of the major dichotomies of the present "civilized" world -- since the "primit ive" cultures could obtain 5 to 50 food calories for each calorie of energy invested (Leach, 1975b).
There are many alternatives by which the developed world can drastically reduce energy inputs wi thout sacrificing yields. Equally, there are many alternative agricultural development policies that the developing world can successfully adopt depending on their socio-economic-cultural conditions. We have discussed some of these alternatives elsewhere (Biswas and Biswas, 1976c). The basic philosophy must be to develop an agricultural system that produces enough food I of adequate quality on a long-term sustaining basis wi thout de- stroying the ecological basis for production. We must not lose sight of the basic fact that ultimately food is a net product of our ecosystem.
Finally, n~ discussion of food-energy interrelationships will be complete without consideration of the possibility of using some of the energy-related raw materials as food. One of the exciting possibilities open to mankind at present is the conversion of hydrocarbons to protein. Protein is the basic life substance of the cells, which consti tutes the protoplasm, and next to water, is the most important ingredient of the human body. Living organisms, in- cluding man, need at least 12% of their calorie intake in the form of protein. This simple fact, however, is of ten overlooked, for example, when we discuss agricultural efficiency, we consider yield per unit acre. Thus, we have been preoccupied with quantity of food and not with its quality. Result of this type of thinking is manifested in the fact that cells of present-day hybrid corns are being filled with carbohydrate at the expense of protein. Hence, we now have to add protein concentrate to this type of corn to make it fit for hog-feed whereas, prior to the "agricultural revolution", it was not neces- sary. Expressed in a different way, "a piece of cheese or ham has to be added to the sandwich to become equivalent in terms of nutritive value to the same sandwich without any additions around the turn of the cen tury" (Borgstrom, 1969).
The "protein crisis" of the world is much worse than the "calorie crisis". According to Borgstrom (1973), we can provide more than enough calories for the entire world populat ion by simply growing sugar beet in the northern part of the United States and sugar cane in the south. The protein shortage of the hungry world is much worse than calorie deficits as is shown in Fig.5.
207
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i ...................... I EAST J;;ii~i~iiii!iii~i~ili!ili~:i~iii~;l
[. i i PROTE I N 60 710 8~0 90
TARGETS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
CALORIES
TOTAL PROTEIN(gm)
Fig.5. Daily consumption per person of calories and protein.
Thus, the war against world starvation can never be won unless we consider calories and proteins simultaneously.
It has been known since 1885 that certain micro-organisms can multiply by decomposing petroleum. Champagnat and his co-workers at Compagnie Francaise des P~troles showed in the early 1960s that vitamins and proteins can be formed by decomposing paraffin with yeast. Yeast is composed of 50% water and 50% dry matter, half of which could be protein (Harada, 1974}. Theoretically 1 ton of dry yeast (which would contain 0.5 tons of protein) can be obtained from 1 ton of n-paraffin. Raw petroleum contains 20--30% paraf- fin and 30% cycloparaffin. The number of hydrocarbons in different kinds of paraffin vary from 6 to 40, and micro-organisms generally are effective on paraffins when their number of hydrocarbons range from 12 to 20:
Currently, several U.S. oil companies are building or planning to build small demonstration plants for production of proteins from hydrocarbons. The major effort so far has been on producing animal feed supplement which are currently somewhat more expensive than soymeal products. However, as the
208
price of soybean increases, or for the countries that have to import soybean, the commercial viability of large-scale protein production is a distinct possi- bility. British Petroleum has already two plants selling protein products in the European market. Amoco Foods Co., a subsidiary of Standard Oil Co. (Indiana), is currently constructing a multi-million dollar plant which will for the first time produce proteins from hydrocarbons for human consumption on a commercial basis. The plant, which will be ready shortly will produce more than 10 million pounds of tortula yeast per year. The yeast, a natural ingredient used for several years in a variety of foods, contains more than 50% protein as well as other valuable vitamins and minerals. It will be grown on food-grade ethyl alcohol made from petroleum, and according to Standard Oil, will meet all U.S. food regulations.
There are several advantages in producing proteins from hydrocarbons (Biswas and Biswas, 1974b, pp. 23--36).
(1) The process can be used almost anywhere in the world. (2) The growth rate of microorganisms greatly exceeds that of animals and
food crops. (3) The process can produce a large mass of organisms within a relatively
small area when compared with ranching or farming. (4) Hydrocarbons are readily transportable to wherever the end product ,
protein, is most needed. (5) Hydrocarbons are available throughout the year without the risk asso-
ciated with the growing and harvesting of food crops. (6) The product ion of animal feed ingredients has relatively modes t energy
requirements and about half of this is consumed in heat for the spray dryer. As for the feedstock itself, present technology demands about one pound of paraffin per pound of product , the protein content being slightly higher than soybean or other competit ive products.
From the above discussion it is obvious that our petroleum resources can and will play an increasingly important role in alleviating the world malnutri- tion. And yet, this is one of the significant factors that has not ye t been con- sidered by any country in the world in establishing a rational energy policy. In fact some have even short-sightedly argued that we should use up all our hydrocarbon resources as if they are "going out of style". The rationale be- hind this type of argument seems to be that technological developments in the energy field will make hydrocarbons obsolute in the next few decades, and hence let us use them up before they become obsolete. What they do not realize is that the same technological developments which they claim will make hydrocarbons obsolete as energy sources, also have the capacity to provide new uses for them, one of them being manufacture of proteins.
Production of proteins from hydrocarbons is a major breakthrough for a protein-short world. Harada (1974) suggests that if 5% of the global annual petroleum consumption (300 million tons) were to be used for conversion to protein, it would yield 7.5 million tons which would be adequate to over- come the protein shortage anticipated by the year 2000. This, certainly, would be no mean achievement.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are most grateful to Dr Nicholas Polunin, President, Environmental Conservation Foundation, Geneva, for his constructive comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
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