Energy and Greenhouse Energy and Greenhouse Gases:Gases:

EMF 19 & GCEP EMF 19 & GCEP

John P. Weyant (Lynn Orr, Chris Edwards, Jim John P. Weyant (Lynn Orr, Chris Edwards, Jim Sweeney)Sweeney)

International Energy WorkshopInternational Energy Workshop

International Institute for Applied Systems International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAnalysis

June 25, 2003June 25, 2003

• The IssueThe Issue Meeting the needs of a population of 10-11 Meeting the needs of a population of 10-11

billion people at the end of this century implies billion people at the end of this century implies greater production and consumption of goods greater production and consumption of goods and services, and increased demands for and services, and increased demands for energy, food, land, and materials. The challenge energy, food, land, and materials. The challenge is to meet these needs while protecting and is to meet these needs while protecting and restoring the planet's life support systems restoring the planet's life support systems (ecological, air, water, and climate) .(ecological, air, water, and climate) .

• Component ChallengesComponent Challenges– Water supplyWater supply– Agricultural systems (strongly linked to water Agricultural systems (strongly linked to water

supply)supply)

– Energy (with possible limits on COEnergy (with possible limits on CO22 emission) emission)

The Grand ChallengeThe Grand Challenge

Global GeochemistryGlobal Geochemistry• COCO22 concentration in the atmosphere has concentration in the atmosphere has

increased from 280 to 370 ppm since 1860.increased from 280 to 370 ppm since 1860.

• pH of the upper ocean has decreased by 0.1pH of the upper ocean has decreased by 0.1

• Continuing debate about the magnitude and Continuing debate about the magnitude and timing of impacts of greenhouse gases on timing of impacts of greenhouse gases on global climate.global climate.

• But there is no doubt that human activities But there is no doubt that human activities are interacting with planetary geochemistry are interacting with planetary geochemistry on a global scale.on a global scale.

• We should be working now on research to We should be working now on research to create energy options with very low create energy options with very low greenhouse emissions.greenhouse emissions.

So what do we do?So what do we do?

• Reduce energy use? Reduce energy use?

• Find new energy sources?Find new energy sources?

• Find someplace to put the COFind someplace to put the CO22 (other than the atmosphere)?(other than the atmosphere)?

• All of the above?All of the above?

How fast can we do all How fast can we do all this?this?• Autos: a decade to change the Autos: a decade to change the

population significantly.population significantly.• Buildings: multiple decades as Buildings: multiple decades as

buildings are replaced, upgraded.buildings are replaced, upgraded.• Industry: plants typically last 30 Industry: plants typically last 30

years or more.years or more.• New energy sources: also decades.New energy sources: also decades.• Big capital investments will be Big capital investments will be

required (though some will pay for required (though some will pay for themselves).themselves).

• Big challenge, so let’s get started!Big challenge, so let’s get started!

Imagine …

… a set of global energy systems that emit very small amounts of greenhouse materials (CO2, CH4, N2O, black soot, and others)

So let us

QuestionsQuestions

• What will be the primary energy sources?What will be the primary energy sources?• How will supplies be deployed, distributed, How will supplies be deployed, distributed,

and used?and used?• What technologies and systems can be What technologies and systems can be

applied effectively in developing countries?applied effectively in developing countries?• What barriers to implementation will have What barriers to implementation will have

to be overcome?to be overcome?• How will we deal with questions of safety, How will we deal with questions of safety,

environmental impact, market acceptance, environmental impact, market acceptance, cost?cost?

• What technologies can help eliminate these What technologies can help eliminate these barriers?barriers?

Global Climate and Energy Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP)Project (GCEP)• A new project has been established at A new project has been established at

Stanford, with industry support Stanford, with industry support • (ExxonMobil, Schlumberger, GE, and (ExxonMobil, Schlumberger, GE, and

Toyota), to investigate how to reduce Toyota), to investigate how to reduce emissions of greenhouse materials.emissions of greenhouse materials.

• The approach: look broadly across The approach: look broadly across primary energy sources, transformations, primary energy sources, transformations, and uses.and uses.

• Ask where university-based pre-Ask where university-based pre-commercial research can reduce barriers commercial research can reduce barriers to implementing energy systems that to implementing energy systems that have substantially lower greenhouse have substantially lower greenhouse emissions.emissions.

Extensions and limitationsExtensions and limitationsCurrent approaches omit important dynamics of technological change. A broader framework for analyzing technological change is needed.

Private R&DInvestment

HeterogeneousInnovators

(“Returns to R&D”)

Uncertainty inR&D Returns:

Discontinuous Diffusion

UncertainTax Policy

Path-dependenceand inertia

Innovation &Knowledge

Accumulation

IntersectoralSpillovers

Technological Change:Diffusion and

Market PenetrationINERTIA

Learning-by-Doing

Public R&DSpillovers

MajorInnovation

IntrasectoralSpillovers

OUTSIDE INFLUENCESINDUCED CHANGE

Private R&DInvestment

HeterogeneousInnovators

(“Returns to R&D”)

Uncertainty inR&D Returns:

Discontinuous Diffusion

UncertainTax Policy

Path-dependenceand inertia

Innovation &Knowledge

Accumulation

IntersectoralSpillovers

Technological Change:Diffusion and

Market PenetrationINERTIA

Learning-by-Doing

Public R&DSpillovers

MajorInnovation

IntrasectoralSpillovers

IntrasectoralSpillovers

OUTSIDE INFLUENCESINDUCED CHANGE

Portfolio AreasPortfolio Areas

• Advanced Advanced transportation systemstransportation systems

• Electric power Electric power generation, storage, generation, storage, distributiondistribution

• Hydrogen production, Hydrogen production, distribution, and usedistribution, and use

• Advanced coal Advanced coal utilizationutilization

• Energy distribution Energy distribution systems and enabling systems and enabling infrastructuresinfrastructures

• GeoengineeringGeoengineering

• Advanced nuclear Advanced nuclear power technologiespower technologies

• Renewable energy Renewable energy sources (wind, solar)sources (wind, solar)

• COCO22 separation, separation, capture, and storagecapture, and storage

• Biomass production, Biomass production, distribution, and usedistribution, and use

• Combustion science Combustion science and engineeringand engineering

• Advanced materialsAdvanced materials

Building the PortfolioBuilding the Portfolio

• For each of the energy areas, assess For each of the energy areas, assess opportunities for reductions in opportunities for reductions in greenhouse emissions, barriers to greenhouse emissions, barriers to implementation, and opportunities for implementation, and opportunities for university research to reduce barriers.university research to reduce barriers.

• Assessments are the basis for Assessments are the basis for proposal to release blocks of funding proposal to release blocks of funding for each area.for each area.

• Work with research groups inside and Work with research groups inside and outside Stanford to put in place outside Stanford to put in place projects that fit within the areas.projects that fit within the areas.

Initial Research ProjectsInitial Research Projects

• Integrated assessment of technology Integrated assessment of technology optionsoptions

• Hydrogen production and utilizationHydrogen production and utilization

• Advanced combustion systemsAdvanced combustion systems

• Geologic sequestration of COGeologic sequestration of CO22

These initial projects will involve 14 faculty in 7 departments (5 in Engineering, 2 Earth Sciences).

Integrated Assessment of Integrated Assessment of Technology OptionsTechnology Options

• Assessments of probable Assessments of probable significance of technologiessignificance of technologies

• Assessments of options to speed Assessments of options to speed up diffusion of technologiesup diffusion of technologies

• Estimation of greenhouse Estimation of greenhouse emissions, evaluations of potential emissions, evaluations of potential reductionsreductions

Develop comprehensive analysis system for:Develop comprehensive analysis system for:

Faculty: Sweeney, Weyant (Mgmt Sci & Eng/Energy Mod. Forum)

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00Ex

ajoul

es

AIM

DNE2

100

GRAP

E

MARI

A

MIni

CAM

EPPA

IIASA

IMAG

E

Model

World Primary Energy in 550 ppm Case in 2100

OtherBiomassWindSolarNuclearHydroCoalGasOil

Technology Cost & Performance. Probability Distributions

Models/ Results

Technology/ Portfolio Evaluation

Scenario/ Scenario Variable

Probability Distributions

Valuation Model

Desirable Technologies/ Portfolios

Expert Assessments

Scenarios

Tentative Schematic Diagramof Technology Evaluation Process

Hydrogen Production and Hydrogen Production and UseUse• Genetically engineering hydrogen Genetically engineering hydrogen

production in photosynthetic production in photosynthetic microbesmicrobes– Sunlight is the direct energy sourceSunlight is the direct energy source– Use breakthroughs in microbial Use breakthroughs in microbial

genomics, bioinformatics, protein genomics, bioinformatics, protein engineering, metabolic engineeringengineering, metabolic engineering

• Hydrogen fuel cells and monitoring Hydrogen fuel cells and monitoring bioconversionbioconversion– Use thin film fabrication methods to Use thin film fabrication methods to

build high performance fuel cellsbuild high performance fuel cells– Build sensors to monitor and control Build sensors to monitor and control

bioconversionbioconversionFaculty: Swartz (Chem Eng), Spormann (Civil & Env Eng), Prinz (ME)

50 Nanometer Membrane on Porous Substrate

Oxide FilmOxide Film

SubstrateSubstrate

Start

Finish

Science: QM Simulations Implanted Ion Highways

Solar Energy

Photolysis Center

H+

O2

e-

H2O e-

Hydrogenase

H2

Reduced Ferredoxin

Oxidized Ferredoxin

Goal: Develop Probes for Intracellular Redox Potential

Redox Potential

Biological Hydrogen Production: Complete Pathway in Each Cell

Advanced Combustion SystemsAdvanced Combustion Systems

• Low-irreversibility engines – combustion Low-irreversibility engines – combustion of highly vitiated reactant streams with of highly vitiated reactant streams with simultaneous work extractionsimultaneous work extraction

• Coal and biomass char reactivity – design Coal and biomass char reactivity – design for lower COfor lower CO22, NO, NOxx emission emission

• Sensors for advanced combustion Sensors for advanced combustion systemssystems

• Process informatics – construct Process informatics – construct computationally tractable models of computationally tractable models of combustion chemistry, heat and mass combustion chemistry, heat and mass transfer and fluid mechanicstransfer and fluid mechanics

Faculty: Bowman, Edwards, Golden, Hanson, Mitchell (Mech Eng)

Controlled CombustionControlled Combustion

• In conventional combustion devices, chemical conversion of fuel and oxidizer to products occurs rapidly in an uncontrolled and highly irreversible process (flame).

• In controlled combustion, the rate of the fuel conversion process is varied by imposing prescribed initial conditions (temperature and mass fractions of the oxidizer and diluents), leading to potential reductions in irreversibilities in energy conversion (improved efficiency) and reduced emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases.

Controlled Controlled

CombustionCombustion

Controlled Combustion

Controlled Combustion

The Concept:

Unstable Combustion

Controlled Combustion Concept

High-TFlame

ConventionalFlame

Air Temperature.>800C

Conventional FlameCombustion

Dilution by combustion products, N2 or CO2

Air Temperature < 600C

Geologic Storage of COGeologic Storage of CO22

• Use COUse CO22 to recover to recover methane in coal methane in coal beds.beds.

• Dissolve CODissolve CO22 in in deep aquifers that deep aquifers that contain salt water.contain salt water.

• Inject COInject CO22 to to recover oil and gas.recover oil and gas.

• Volumes are very Volumes are very large: 1 GtCOlarge: 1 GtCO22/yr = /yr = 25 million B/D.25 million B/D.

Geologic COGeologic CO22 SequestrationSequestration• Develop a suite of tools for design, Develop a suite of tools for design,

monitoring of COmonitoring of CO22 injection projects injection projects• Geologic systems: oil and gas Geologic systems: oil and gas

reservoirs, coalbeds, deep saline reservoirs, coalbeds, deep saline aquifersaquifers

• Develop fast, accurate method for flow Develop fast, accurate method for flow predictionprediction

• Develop low-cost monitoring methods Develop low-cost monitoring methods (passive seismic, InSAR, in-well sensors)(passive seismic, InSAR, in-well sensors)

• Develop seal integrity assessment toolsDevelop seal integrity assessment tools

Faculty: Harris, Zoback (Geophys), Kovscek, Orr (Pet Eng)

ConclusionsConclusions

• No single solution to energy/CONo single solution to energy/CO22 challenge. challenge.

• Need research on a wide-ranging portfolio of Need research on a wide-ranging portfolio of energy sources and conversion methods.energy sources and conversion methods.

• Conservation and energy efficiency are very Conservation and energy efficiency are very important, but additional effort needed to important, but additional effort needed to create deep reductions in emissions.create deep reductions in emissions.

• Sequestering enough COSequestering enough CO22 to have an impact to have an impact is a daunting challenge, but it is one that will is a daunting challenge, but it is one that will require the skills of many engineers and require the skills of many engineers and scientists across disciplines.scientists across disciplines.

ConclusionsConclusions

• The energy/COThe energy/CO22 challenge is a global challenge is a global one that will require a sustained, one that will require a sustained, long-term, international effort that long-term, international effort that blends science, engineering, blends science, engineering, economics, policy, and much more economics, policy, and much more international cooperation than has international cooperation than has been in evidence so far. been in evidence so far.

SummarySummary

We now have a remarkable opportunity to unleash the talents of our creative students and faculty to work on one of the grand challenges of this century. If we succeed, we can change the world!