Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, Impact

Sanjay. V. Khare

Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606

http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/

Four Distinct Crises

Problem Imminence Impact Awareness

I Global WarmingApproaching

(5 to 10 years)GRADUAL over 10 – 100+ years

HIGH

II Peak Production

Liquid Fuels

Now

(-3 to 5 years)CATASTROPIC

Undertanding is POOR

III Peak Production

Total Energy

Approaching

(10 to 15 years)CATASTROPIC

Understanding is POOR

IV Peak Other Materials (food, top

soil, fertile land, H2O, P, U, Au)

Now

(0 to 5 years)

CATASTROPIC

Can be exacerbated by

I - III

INCREASING

Peak Liquid Fuels

Best estimates of future world oil

production

Peak Total Energy

Total Energy Use, 1965 to

2050

(Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)

Net Surplus Energy (NSE)

TM = Total mass of energy providing material e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules

EPM = Energy produced per unit mass

NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation)

Correct Calculation

EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested =

NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x

We are running out of TM and EROEI

inEout

E

inEout

E

Mitigation

Type of Effort Importance

Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal High

Rapid deployment of existing technology, public transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and

photovoltaic, geothermalHigh

Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of locals, media and policy makers

High

Applied engineering researchMedium term

(5 – 10 years)

Fundamental research done today will have scaled impact after 20 years

Long Term

(10 – 20 years)

Thank You

References:

• www.theoildrum.com

• www.energybulletin.net

• www.aspo-usa.org

• Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By Kenneth S. Deffeyes

• Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil; By David Goodstein

• Twilight in the Dessert; by Matthew R. Simmons

Solar Energy of Commercially-Available Thin Film Technologies, a-Si most clearly has no fundamental material limitations

Crystalline PV productionrate expected to slowover next few years dueto silicon shortage.Thin film PV productionrate expected to continueto increase.

One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit mass and per unit volume for various sources.

“Balloon graph” representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the “balloon” represents part of the uncertainty associated with EROI estimates.(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Hall’s own EROI work in preparation)

Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V. 2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.'' OECD

Observer 258/59: 22-23.)

Power Density

Energy Surplus

The energy return on investment (EROI) for various fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)

Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human

Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)

Peak may have occurred about time of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

But US oil production began to decline in 1970

• Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies have already peaked.

• The US peaked in 1970.

• 53 of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.

Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production

peaked

Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

The US lower 48 states

If the world follows the US pattern:

Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

…the world would peak soon

There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply

Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar

Spare capacity = how much extra

oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained

for 90 days

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1985 1990 2003 2004

SPARE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi VenezuelaYear Dhabi Zone Arabia1980 28.0 1.4 58.0 31.0 65 6.1 163 181981 29.0 1.4 57.5 30.0 66 6.0 165 181982 30.6 1.3 57.0 29.7 65 5.9 165 201983 30.5 1.4 55.3 41.0 64 5.7 162 221984 30.4 1.4 51.0 43.0 64 5.6 166 251985 30.5 1.4 48.5 44.5 90 5.4 169 261986 30.0 1.4 47.9 44.1 90 5.4 169 261987 31.0 1.4 48.8 47.1 92 5.3 167 251988 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 167 561989 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 170 581990 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.0 258 591991 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 95 5.0 258 591992 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 258 631993 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 259 631994 92.2 4.3 89.3 100 94 5.0 259 651995 92.2 4.3 88.2 100 94 5.0 259 651996 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.0 94 5.0 259 651997 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.5 94 5.0 259 721998 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 259 731999 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 732000 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 772001 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 782002 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 78

SpuriousOPECReserveRevisions

Global Oil Production, 1965 to 2050

Global Natural Gas Production, 1965 to 2050

Global Coal Production, 1965 to 2050

Global Hydro Production, 1965 to 2050

Global Nuclear Production, 1965 to 2100

Actual and Projected Wind Power, 1997 to 2050

Actual and Projected Solar Power, 1996 to 2050

Other Renewable Energy Production, 1990 to 2100

Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100

The Global Energy Mix in 1965

The Global Energy Mix in 2005

The Global Energy Mix in 2050

The life support pie is shrinking:The foundation of

all agriculture, the soil, is diminishing

in all parts of the world

Aquifers are being pumped

dry

Forests are disappeari

ng

Fisheries are being

decimated

Biodiversity is being

extinguished

Rivers are drying up

• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are the world's most important stable nutrient source and to meet future demand cereal production will need to double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffs will also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if the food production necessary to support the increased population is to be provided”.

Fertilizer Association of Ireland

Saudi saying:

“My father rode a camel.

I drive a car.

My son flies a jet airplane.

His son will ride a camel.”

• A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a quadrillion) BTU,

or 1.055 × 1018 joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.

• 1018 = exa- (EJ)

1x electron-volt (eV) = 1.602 x 10-19 joule

1 x calorie (cal.) = 4.1868 joules

1 x kilocalorie (kcal.) = 4.1868 x 103 joules

1 x British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1,055 joules

  = 252 cal.

1 x millions BTU (MMBTU) = 1.055 x 109 joules

1 x quadrillion BTU (quad) = 1.055 x 1018 joules

  = 1 x 1015 BTU

1 x them = 1.055 x 108 joules

  = 1 x 105 BTU

1 x kilowatt-hour = 3.6 x 106 joules

1 x megawatt-hour = 3.6 x 109 joules

1 x gigawatt-hour = 3.6 x 1012 joules

1 x ton of oil equivalent (toe) = 4.1868 x 1010 joules

1 x million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 4.1868 x 1016 joules

• American barrel = 158.984 liters = 42 American (US) gallons = 3.78541 cubic decimeters (dm3) = 0.136 tonne (approx)

• 1 MMSCF of natural gas = 172.3 barrels of crude oil equivalent = 365 x 1,000,000 scf 1 million cu.ft. of natural gas = 18.91 tons liquid = 1598.69 cu.ft.liquid 1 std.cu.feet of natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 m.ton of lignite = 2.053 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 ltr of fuel oil 1500 sec = 38.9 cubic feet of natural gas 1 kg of LPG = 47.0 cubic feet of natural gas 1 normal cu.m. per day (Nm3/d) = 37.33 standard cu.ft. per day (SCFD) [flow rate of gas] 1 ton of LNG = 1.14 1.4 x 103 normal cu.m.natural (LNG conversions) gas (Nm3) = 52.3 x 103 standard cubic feet natural gas (SCF) = 55.0 x 109 joules (HHV) 1 ton of LNG = 1.22 tonne crude oil (energy equivalents) = 0.80 tonne heavy fuel oil = 0.91 tonne LPG (commercial composition) = 1.91 tonne coal 1 barrel per day (b/d) = 50 tonnes per year (approx.) 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 1 barrel of crude oil = 5,487 cubic feet of gas **

• Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of 5,487 cubic feet of natural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is based on the actual average equivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.