energy in 2013: taking stock 2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑 ·...

®BP 2014

Christof Rühl.16 June 2014克里斯托夫·鲁尔 2014年6月

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014BP世界能源统计年鉴

2014年6月bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats

Energy in 2013: Taking stock2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑

Introduction引言

Energy and the economy能源和经济

Fuel by fuel各类燃料的发展状况

Conclusion结语

1BP世界能源统计2014年6月

Energy in 2013: Taking stock2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑

Introduction引言

The purpose of this review has always been to provide objective data on global energy developments; and to chronicle changes in global energy markets year by year, in as rigorous a fashion as possible. Here is last year’s chapter.

本年鉴的宗旨一如既往地在于提供全球能源发展动态的客观数据；并竭尽所能严谨地逐年记录全球能源市场的变化。本文讲述去年的能源动态。

目录

BP世界能源统计年鉴

© BP 2014

• 引言

• 能源和经济

• 各类燃料的发展状况

• 结语

Outline

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

© BP 2014

• Introduction

• Energy and the economy

• Fuel by fuel

• Concluding remarks

To begin with, let’s step back a little.

首先，稍作回顾。

Ten years ago, the energy world looked rather different. Much of what we took for granted has changed. It is always a good first step to look back at where you came from before assessing today. What have been some of the major changes over the past decade?

十年前，能源世界大为不同。很多我们当时认为理所当然的事也已改变。在审视今天之前，对历史稍作回顾向来是好的第一步。那么，过去十年里发生了哪些重大改变？

Ten years ago, the developing world, classified here as non-OECD economies, had started to embark on a period of rapid economic growth (the term BRICs was coined in 2001). From 2001 onward, this showed up as an “energy gap” – global energy demand growth became dominated by the non-OECD; in 2008, it overtook the OECD. China, rightly or wrongly, came to symbolize this ascent, overtaking the EU in 2007, the US in 2010 and the whole of North America last year. Many would have found this hard to believe ten years ago.

十年前，本文归类为非经合组织经济体的发展中国家开始进入经济快速增长期（2001年“金砖国家”一词出现）。自2001年以来，这种增长体现出“能源缺口”——非经合组织主导着全球能源需求的增长；2008年，非经合组织的需求增长超过经合组织。中国成为上述需求增长的标志，姑且不论正确与否，其能源需求在2007年超过欧盟，2010年超过

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来源: 包括来自ICIS Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and 普氏（Platts）的数据 BP世界能源统计年鉴

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2 BP世界能源统计2014年6月

Perceptions change, not only about reserves. A supply response always existed but it became widely recognized only after it triggered the emergence of “new” sources of supply. The biggest item on this list has to be the emergence of unconventional oil and gas resources. That this would happen in the competitive energy world of North America makes perfect economic sense, in retrospect. But who would have thought?

各种认知发生变化，不仅是对储量的认知。供应侧的反应始终存在，但只有在其导致出现“新”供应来源后才会得到普遍认识。在这方面，规模最大的新供应来源当然是非常规油气资源。回头来看，非常规油气资源开发出现在高度竞争的北美能源行业完全符合经济理论。但此前又有谁能够未卜先知呢？

If we loosely group together fuels that we may classify as “new”, simply by virtue of having not been around a decade ago, including renewables motivated by newly found climate change policies (and high fossil fuel prices), they accounted for 81% of global primary energy production growth last year.

如果我们将可归类为“新燃料”的各种燃料进行大致汇总，其定义就是十年前尚不存在的燃料，而且包括由新出台的气候变化政策（及居高不下的化石燃料价格）推动产生的可再生能源，“新燃料”去年在全球一次能源生产增长中的比重为81%。

Time to look at this in more detail.

现在可以进行更详细的分析。

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美国，去年则超过整个北美。十年前，许多人会觉得此事难以置信。

Energy markets are huge and the supply response can be sluggish. So prices started to rise and to diverge. Oil prices rose the fastest, of course, but many of the implications are easily forgotten: today, we think of oil prices above $100 as normal, and many an analyst remains gainfully employed by investigating gas price spreads – an activity which would not have attracted much attention ten years ago.

能源市场非常庞大，供应侧反应可能缓慢。因此，价格开始攀升——并呈现差异化。石油价格当然上涨最快，但很多影响容易被遗忘：今天，我们认为石油价格超过100美元是正常现象，许多分析师被高薪聘请，致力于研究天然气价差——这项工作在10年前不会如此受到关注。

One trend that has not changed is reserves growth. It was always one of our more popular statistics, but saying that proved reserves had increased, after yet another year of rapid oil, gas or coal consumption growth, created a lot more disbelief then than now. But increase they did: proved oil and gas reserves are up 27% and 19%, respectively, over the last ten years alone – despite production growth of 11% and 29%.

没有改变的一个趋势是储量的增长。储量一直是较受欢迎的统计数据，但在石油、天然气和煤炭消费经历了又一年的迅猛增长后，提出探明储量有所增加的说法在当时引起的质疑远多于现在。但储量的确在增长：仅以过去的十年而论，石油和天然气的探明储量分别增加27%和19%——尽管产量增幅为11%和29%。


Energy and the economy能源和经济

Energy and the economy


© BP 2014

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能源和经济


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来源: 包括来自牛津经济研究院的数据

备注: GDP增长率是基于购买力平价（PPP）的数据计算

possible to combine economic growth with stagnant or falling energy consumption.

在过去十年里，虽然经合组织的经济增长为18%，但其能源消费保持平稳。如果我们对一个特别合适的数据子集进行分析，即欧盟当前28个成员国去年的累计经济增长为54%，但能源消费却降至1988年的水平，——这里不难提出一个耐人寻味的问题，是否可能，或在什么情况下，可以在经济增长的同时使能源消费滞缓或有所下降？

Meanwhile in the non-OECD, stronger economic growth and industrialization necessitated continued consumption growth before, during and after the crisis. The relationship between economic and energy growth was quite similar in the OECD and non-OECD the ten years before the crisis. After the crisis, and presumably related to large, energy intensive fiscal stimuli elsewhere, energy intensity improved faster in the OECD.

在非经合组织，较为强劲的经济增长和工业化使能源消费在危机之前、期间和过后保持持续增长。在爆发危机前的十年，经合组织与非经合组织各自的经济与能源增长之间的关系非常类似。在危机爆发后，可能是在大规模、改善能源强度的财政刺激影响下，经合组织的能源强度改善更快。

2013 broke this pattern. Global primary energy consumption accelerated from 1.8% to 2.3%, just a tick below the ten year average [2.5% p.a.] and despite slackening economic growth. For the two subgroups, fortunes diverged.

2013年打破了这种模式。虽然经济增长疲软，但全球一次能源消费加速增长，从1.8%增至2.3%，仅略低于十年平均水平[2.5%]。对于两个群体而言，命运迥异。

OECD energy demand rose by 1.2%, offsetting an equal decline the previous year, despite slowing and lacklustre economic performance – almost on a par with GDP growth [1.3%]. Non-OECD energy consumption, in contrast, grew by only 3.1%, the slowest rate for 13 years, except for the crisis year 2009 – and substantially below GDP growth [4.8%].

尽管经济状况疲软无力且乏善可陈，经合组织的能源需求仍增长1.2%，抵消了此前一年同等幅度的下滑，几乎与国内生产总值增长持平[1.3%]。与之对照，非经合组织的能源消费仅增长3.1%，在过去的13年里，这是除2009年危机年份外的最低增速，而且远低于国内生产总值的增长[4.8%]。

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North America

of which China

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Europe & Eurasia

S & C America

Middle East

Africa

Energy consumption in 2013


© BP 2014

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Growth by fuel Annual change, %

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Growth by region Annual change, %

of which China

of which US of which US

of which China

Global economic growth has been softening since 2010, the year of big economic stimuli. Last year it was 3%, a little weaker than 2012, and considerably below its ten year average [3.7% p.a.], which now includes the years of boom and bust before and after the economic crisis. Economic performance softened in the OECD and non-OECD alike, but the economic “growth gap” between them has narrowed since the crisis.

2010年实行大规模经济刺激，之后全球经济增长放缓。去年的增速为3%，略低于2012年，远低于过去十年平均水平[3.7%]，这十年包括了经济危机前后的繁荣与萧条年份。经合组织与非经合组织的经济状况均显疲软，但两者间经济“增长差距”自危机以来有所缩小。

Energy consumption followed economic growth, but with a twist.

能源消费与经济增长的趋势一致，但其间出现过一次波动。

Energy consumption growth in the OECD has been flat over the last ten years, despite economic growth of 18%. And, if we take a particularly fitting sub-set, energy consumption in today’s 28 member states of the European Union last year was back at the level of 1988, despite cumulative economic growth of 54% – raising the intriguing question whether, or under which circumstances, it may be


North America, the only region globally to show above-average growth, drove the OECD acceleration, with energy demand growing even faster than GDP. The non-OECD slowdown was concentrated in Asia, with energy consumption growth below 4% for only the second time in 12 years, while economic growth held steady [5.2%].

作为能源需求增长高出平均水平的全球唯一区域，北美推动了经合组织需求的加速增长，北美能源需求的增速甚至超过了国内生产总值的增长。非经合组织的增速放缓主要体现在亚洲，其能源消费增长在过去12年中第二次出现低于4%的水平，而经济增长保持稳定[5.2%]。

The contrasting experiences of North America and Asia Pacific reflect the differing fortunes of the world’s largest energy consumers, China and the US. Together, they account for more than 70% of world energy consumption growth.

北美和亚太地区的鲜明对照反映出世界最大的能源消费国——中国和美国的不同发展轨迹。中美两国的能源消费增长之和占全球增长的70%以上[72.52%]。

In 2013 Chinese energy growth slipped from 7.0% to 4.7%, and thus well below its ten year trend [8.6% p.a.] – although the People’s Republic reported unchanged economic growth of 7.7%. The slowdown in Chinese growth was concentrated in coal but is visible in oil as well. Meanwhile, US primary energy consumption grew by 2.9%, rebounding from a 2.8% decline in 2012. Much of this is due to weather effects; but beyond the weather, there are signs of underlying strength in US industrial sector energy use, in particular of oil products.

2013年，中国的能源消费增长从7.0%降至4.7%，因而远低于其十年趋势水平[年均8.6%]——尽管中国所报告的经济增长仍高达7.7%。中国的能源消费增长放缓主要体现在煤炭领域，但也包括石油消费。美国的一次能源消费增长2.9%，继2012年下滑2.8%后出现反弹。这种增长在很大程度上源自天气因素；但除天气之外，美国工业部门的能源消费出现根本性的增长迹象，特别是对石油产品的需求反弹。

The effects are visible, even if we only look at global fuel aggregates. China is responsible for the relative weakness of coal growth, and the US for the relative strength of oil

growth. We will discuss the details in a minute.即使只看全球燃料需求总量，上述效应也显而易见。中

国造成了煤炭需求增长的相对疲软，而美国推动了石油需求保持较为强劲的增长。本文稍后将进行详细讨论。

All told, the diverging performance of China and the US caused the “energy gap” between non-OECD and OECD energy consumption growth to narrow sharply. It became the smallest since 2000.

总而言之，中美之间截然不同的表现使非经合组织与经合组织的能源消费增长之间的“能源缺口”大幅缩小，达到2000年以来的最低水平。

What can the energy data tell us? Are these data points a harbinger of things to come or just an aberration? Too early to tell is the appropriate answer. In our textbooks, energy demand is the consequence of economic growth. In reality, where data measurement is less than perfect, energy data often allows for conclusions about real economic activity. In the present context, it is easy to see how abundant domestic resources in the US would eventually give a boost to the economy, not just to energy demand. It is much harder to see how the fundamental restructuring underway in China could leave an imprint only on energy demand without, eventually, affecting economic performance as well.

上述能源数据能够揭示什么要素？这些数据是未来发展的预兆还是偶尔出现的偏差？正确的答案是现在下结论为时过早。在教科书中，能源需求是经济发展的结果。在现实中，尽管数据测量并非完美，但能源数据通常有助于对实体经济活动作出结论。在当前背景下，不难看出美国富饶的国内资源将如何最终推动经济发展，而不仅是拉高能源需求。更难以琢磨的是，中国方兴未艾的基本结构调整如何可以只改变能源需求，而不会最终影响经济绩效。

Let’s look at these developments fuel by fuel.

让我们根据各种燃料对上述动态进行分析。

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2013年能源消费


© BP 2014

10年平均

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其中：美国其中：美国

其中：中国


Fuel by fuel各种燃料

Oil石油

增长——这与2012年的动态恰好相反。因此库存量下滑。

And 2013 was yet another year of turbulence in oil production. We are all familiar with the ongoing story of rapid growth in the US; but it was also yet another year of significant supply disruptions, most notably in North Africa and the Middle East.

2013年还是石油生产出现动荡的又一个年头。我们对美国产量迅猛增长的故事耳熟能详，但2013年也再次出现严重的供应减产，尤以北非和中东为甚。

So why did prices remain so stable? We will investigate in detail, starting with global oil consumption.

那么，价格何以保持稳定？我们将详细探究，首先来看全球石油消费情况。

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Oil prices over the last three years have been high but remarkably stable. In 2013, they dipped slightly, with Dated Brent averaging almost $109 [$108.66], $3 below the average of 2011 and 2012. This has been the third consecutive year of prices above $100, a first in both real and nominal terms; and it has been the three year period with the lowest price volatility since 1970.

在过去三年里，石油价格居高不下但非常稳定。2013年，油价略微下跌，布伦特现货均价接近109美元[108.66美元]，比2011年和2012年的平均价格低出3美元。石油价格连续第三年超过100美元，而实际及名义油价首度双双突破100美元大关；这三年是1970年以来油价波动幅度最小的时期。

The stability in oil prices betrays significant changes in the underlying balance between consumption and production. In 2013, global consumption growth exceeded production growth by a wide margin—the exact opposite of the dynamics in 2012. As a result, inventories fell.

稳定的石油价格没有体现出消费及生产之间基本平衡状况发生的重大变化。2013年，全球消费增长远远超过生产

Global oil consumption last year rose by 1.4 Mb/d in 2013, or 1.4%, higher than both 2012 and the ten year average. As has become the norm, growth was driven by the emerging economies of the non-OECD, which for the first time accounted for the majority of global consumption. OECD demand remained stagnant.

2013年，全球石油消费增长140万桶/日，即1.4%，高于2012年的增长率及过去十年的平均水平。正如司空见惯的情况一样，增长的驱动因素是非经合组织的新兴经济体，它们在全球消费中的比重首次居多。经合组织的需求仍然停滞不前。

In the OECD, the US stood out as its consumption grew by 400 Kb/d, the fastest growth of any country last year –


and (in volume terms) outpacing China for the first time since 1999. In contrast, consumption in the rest of the OECD fell by a larger than average 380 Kb/d, led by a 160 Kb/d decline in Japan, where oil was backed out of power generation by renewables, coal and improved efficiency. European consumption dropped by 130 Kb/d, with the largest declines seen in the countries most affected by the recession, such as Spain, Italy and Greece.

就经合组织而言，美国脱颖而出，消费增长40万桶/日，为去年增速最快的国家——（按量计算）自1999年以来首度超过中国。与此对照，其他经合组织经济体的消费降幅超过平均水平，为38万桶/日，日本首当其冲地减少16万桶/日，其原因包括可再生能源和煤炭在发电行业中挤占了石油的份额，以及能效有所提高。欧洲的消费下降13万桶/日，受衰退影响最大的国家跌幅最大，例如西班牙、意大利和希腊。

Non-OECD consumption rose by 1.4 Mb/d or 3.1%, well below the ten year average [3.9% p.a.]. This weakness was especially pronounced in China, where demand grew by only 390 Kb/d – the lowest since the recession in 2009. Growth in India [40 Kb/d] fell to its lowest level since 2001 as subsidies were reduced while in the Middle East, growth was limited by civil unrest and rising use of natural gas in Saudi Arabia’s power sector.

非经合组织的消费增长140万桶/日，即3.1%，远低于十年平均水平[3.9%]。中国的消费疲态最为明显，需求仅增加39万桶/日——为2009年发生经济衰退以来的最低水平。印度在削减补贴后，增幅[4万桶/日]降至2001年以来的最低水平，而中东地区的增长受到内部动乱及沙特发电部门增加天然气使用等因素的制约。

So far in 2014, global oil demand growth has been slower due to more modest demand growth in the US and a further slowdown in China.

2014年迄今为止，由于美国需求的增长幅度减小及中国需求的进一步放缓，全球石油需求增长减速。

A review of oil consumption by product can help to identify underlying economic forces. Light distillates, such as gasoline, more dependent on prices, were the fastest growing product category for the second consecutive year [620 Kb/d], whereas middle distillates, more dependent on economic activity, grew only slowly [490 Kb/d]. The main driver of light distillate growth was strong gasoline demand in the non-OECD; OECD gasoline consumption registered a rare, small increase. The slowdown in middle distillate demand growth was again entirely driven by the developing world where growth almost halved [to 350 Kb/d from 660 Kb/d in 2012]. And within this group it was again China which accounted for by far the largest part of the slowdown.

按各种石油产品对石油消费进行评估有助于确定基本的经济因素。对价格依赖较强的汽油等轻质馏分油连续第二年成为增长最快的石油产品类别[62万桶/日]，而对经济活动依赖较强的中质馏分油仅呈现缓慢增长[49万桶/日]。轻质馏分油增长的主要驱动因素是非经合组织强劲的汽油需求；经合组织的汽油消费呈现难得一见的小幅增长。中质馏分油需求放缓的驱动因素仍是发展中国家，这些国家的增长几乎减半[从2012年66万桶/日降至35万桶/日]。在这一国家组别中，需求减缓仍然主要源自中国。

Distinguishing by product category also helps to disentangle the question why the US saw such a dramatic increase in oil consumption last year – up 400 Kb/d, against an average annual decline of 110 Kb/d over the last ten years. This cannot be explained by economic growth which slowed from 2.8% to 1.9% last year. The rise was focused in the industrial sector, including refining and petrochemicals, which contributed almost 80% of net growth [310 Kb/d]. Much of this growth was for light products [in particular LPG], facilitated by the robust growth of domestic natural gas liquids, which has driven down prices significantly over the last few years.

按产品类别进行区分还有助于解析美国去年的石油消费激增现象——增加40万桶/日，而在过去十年里则年均减少11万桶/日。经济增长无法解释这一现象，因为美国去年的经济增长从2.8%降至1.9%。石油消费增长集中在工业部门，包括炼油和石化行业，工业部门在净增长中所占比重接近80%[31万桶/日]。这种增长主要集中在轻质石油产品[特别是液化石油气]，这得益于美国国内天然气液体产品在过去

Oil consumption by product


© BP 2014

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分产品的石油消费量


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其他

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10年平均


几年的强劲增长促使价格出现大幅下跌。

利比亚伊朗叙利亚

沙特阿拉伯尼日利亚

英国挪威

俄罗斯加拿大阿联酋

美国

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

石油生产


© BP 2014

2013年变化最大的国家

百万桶/日

非石油输出国组织国家

石油输出国组织国家

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美国 2012 利比亚 2012

沙特 2011 伊朗 1982 美国 2013 沙特 1988 沙特 2003 沙特 1972 沙特 1979 沙特 1990 沙特 1976 沙特 1986 沙特 1973 沙特 1991

年度变化, 百万桶/日

石油生产增长排序


© BP 2014

Cumulative change since 4Q10, Mb/d

Source: includes data from US Energy Information Administration Note: Other includes Sudan/S Sudan, Syria & Yemen

Oil supply disruptions

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1

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1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Libya Iran Other US Net

for itself. Average OPEC crude production was near the group’s 30 Mb/d production ceiling, which has been in place since December 2011.

与此同时，石油输出国组织的产量减少60万桶/日。除了稍后将讨论的意外供应减产外，沙特继2012年创下产量纪录后减产11万桶/日。阿联酋的产量则实现新高，增长[25万桶/日]，但仅部分抵消了石油输出国组织的产量下滑。石油输出国组织的平均原油产量接近该组织自2011年12月设定的3000万桶/日生产上限。

US oil production exceeded 10 Mb/d in 2013, reaching the highest level since 1986. Driven by tight oil plays, US production rose by over 1.1 Mb/d in 2013 – the second consecutive year of above 1 Mb/d of supply growth, and the second consecutive “biggest increase in US history”. Indeed, only Saudi Arabia has ever had a bigger increase than the US in 2013 – nine times in total, to be precise; but in six of those nine times the increment resulted from the ability to tap existing spare production capacity. In terms of “organic” growth, based on capacity expansion, last year’s US increase therefore was the fourth biggest in history.

2013年，美国的石油产量突破1000万桶/日，达到1986年以来的最高水平。在致密油藏的推动下，2013年的美国产量增加110多万桶/日——供应量增长连续第二年超过100万桶/日，连续第二次实现“美国历史上的最大增产”。实际上，仅沙特曾超过美国2013年的生产增量——准确而言，共有9次超过上述增量；但9次中的6次是依靠挖掘现有闲置产能。就基于产能扩建的“内生”增长而言，美国去年的增长在历史上排名第四。

So far this year, US production growth has been even stronger [nearly 1.3 Mb/d, year-on-year]. OPEC crude output has fallen further, averaging well below 30 Mb/d and largely due to the ongoing sharp decline in Libyan output.

今年迄今为止，美国的产量增长更为强劲[同比增加近130万桶/日]。石油输出国组织的原油产量进一步下滑，平均来看远低于3000万桶/日的水平，这主要是由于利比亚产量持续出现急剧下滑。

Oil production


© BP 2014

Largest changes in 2013 Mb/d

Libya Iran Syria

Saudi Arabia Nigeria

UK Norway

Russia Canada UAE

US

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Non-OPEC

OPEC

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

US 2012Libya 2012Saudi 2011

Iran 1982US 2013

Saudi 1988Saudi 2003Saudi 1972Saudi 1979Saudi 1990Saudi 1976Saudi 1986Saudi 1973Saudi 1991

Annual change, Mb/d

Largest oil production increases

Turning to production, 2013 can once again be characterized as a tale of major supply disruptions and of historic US growth. We will address these in turn after reviewing the data.

在生产方面，2013年的特点还是严重的供应减产及美国的创纪录增长。我们在评估数据后将进行逐一分析。

Global output rose slightly in 2013 [560 Kb/d], due to the largest increase in non-OPEC countries [1.2 Mb/d] since 2002. The main contributor to this growth was the US, but supplies also grew in Canada and Russia. Russia [150 Kb/d] posted a record high for the post-Soviet era. Canadian production [210 Kb/d] reached an all-time high due to continued oil sands growth. These increases more than offset continued declines in mature areas such as the North Sea [UK and Norway, -80 Kb/d each].

由于非石油输出国组织实现2002年以来的最大增产[120万桶/日]，2013年的全球产量略有增加[56万桶/日]。上述增长的主要贡献者是美国，但加拿大和俄罗斯的供应也有所增加。俄罗斯[15万桶/日]实现了后苏联时代的产量新高。加拿大的产量[21万桶/日]在油砂持续增长的推动下达到历史最高水平。这些增量超过了北海[英国和挪威，各减产8万桶/日]等成熟产油区域产量的持续减量。

Meanwhile, OPEC production contracted by 600 Kb/d. In addition to unplanned disruptions which we will discuss in a minute, Saudi Arabia cut output by 110 Kb/d after producing at record levels in 2012. The declines were only partly offset by an increase in the UAE [250 Kb/d], which set a new record


As in recent years, supply disruptions were large and concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East. Libya has been a focal point: following initial outages of 1.2 Mb/d in 2011 due to civil war, production staged a nearly-full recovery in 2012 [1 Mb/d]. But renewed unrest in the second half of 2013 led to an average annual decline of 520 Kb/d last year. Iranian production declined by 190 Kb/d as a result of continued international sanctions. Significant losses were also seen in Syria, the Sudans and Yemen. Cumulative supply disruptions since the advent of the “Arab Spring” from these countries have reached an extraordinary 3 Mb/d.

如同近年来的情况，供应减产的规模较大且集中发生在

北非和中东地区。利比亚是一个焦点地区：继2011年由于内战而初步停产120万桶/日后，2012年几乎完全恢复了生产水平[100万桶/日]。但2013年下半年再度出现的动乱使去年的产量年均减少52万桶/日。伊朗的产量在持续的国际制裁下减少19万桶/日。叙利亚、南北苏丹和也门均出现严重减产。这些国家自“阿拉伯之春”爆发以来的累计供应减产高达惊人的300万桶/日。

We are now in a better position to return to the question of why oil prices were so stable the last three years, despite the violent shifts we observed in production.

我们现在能更好地回答此前的问题，即虽然我们看到产量出现严重波动，为何石油价格在过去三年保持如此的稳定。

For the biggest part the answer has to be that the supply disruptions in Africa and the Middle East were matched almost exactly by the shale-related production increases in the US. It is a fair conclusion that oil markets would look very different today, had we only witnessed supply disruptions on the scale they actually happened. And vice versa, oil markets would look very different today had we only witnessed the shale “revolution” in the US. Importantly, the match is sheer coincidence. Higher prices may induce more shale production. But virtually nothing else of logic or substance connects the two developments. And so markets will remain on edge – or eerily calm – until one side gains the upper hand.

在很大程度上，答案应该是美国与页岩相关的产量增长几乎完全弥补了非洲和中东地区的供应中断。合理的结论是，如果只发生当前实际出现的大规模供应中断，今天的石油市场状况将非常不同。反之亦然，如果仅有美国的页岩“革命”，当前的石油市场也绝非如此。重要的是，两者的此消彼长纯属巧合。高价格可能刺激更多的页岩生产。但实际上，没有合乎逻辑或具有实质意义的其他因素能够将上述两种动态结合到一起。因此，在其中一种因素占据上风前，市场仍将保持紧张不安——或者诡异的平静。


© BP 2014

Cumulative change since 4Q10, Mb/d

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Source: includes data from US Energy Information Administration Note: Other includes Sudan/S Sudan, Syria & Yemen

Oil supply disruptions and US production growth

Libya Iran Other US Net

从10年第4季度以来的累积变化量, 百万桶/日

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0

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1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

石油供应减产和美国产量增长

利比亚伊朗其他美国净值


© BP 2014

来源: 包括来自美国能源情报信息署的数据

备注: 其他地区包括苏丹/南苏丹，叙利亚和也门

Oil inventories


© BP 2014

Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2014, Platts and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

OECD commercial inventories

Billion bbls

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OECD stocks and forward markets

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1Q00-4Q10

Post ArabSpring:1Q11-4Q13

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OECD days of forward cover

石油库存

来源: 包括来自国际能源署, 普氏(Platts) 和 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc的数据 .

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即期布伦特价格减去12个月期货价格, 美元/桶

经合组织库存可满足未来需求的天数 BP世界能源统计年鉴

© BP 2014

一月三月五月七月九月十一月


© BP 2014

从10年第4季度以来的累积变化量, 百万桶/日

来源: 包括来自美国能源情报信息署的数据

备注: 其他地区包括苏丹/南苏丹，叙利亚和也门

石油供应减产

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-1

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1

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1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

利比亚伊朗其他 US Net


In an interesting way, this current stand-off finds itself reflected in the relationship between prices and inventories. Commercial inventories contracted in 2013, ending the year down almost 100 Mbbls on 2012, at the lowest year-end level since 2004. At the start of the year, inventories were ample following strong production growth in 2012, but stronger demand growth soon corrected this, and when Libyan supply collapsed in September, OECD inventories started to fall rapidly. Stocks have remained low so far this year, particularly for refined products.

有趣的是，当前的拉锯还体现在价格与库存之间的关系上。2013年的商业库存有所下滑，该年结束时比2012年减少近10万桶，是2004年以来的最低年终水平。2013年伊始，库存水平在2012年的强劲生产增长推动下非常充足，但更强劲的需求增长很快改变了这种状况，当利比亚的供应在9月份陷入瘫痪时，经合组织的库存开始迅速下滑。今年迄今为止，特别是精炼产品的库存仍处于低位。

But there is a more subtle dimension.

但是，还存在更微妙的问题。

The relationship between the level of OECD commercial inventories and prices has shifted since the advent of significant supply disruptions in early 2011. The shape of the forward curve since then indicates that market participants are willing to pay a higher premium relative to future prices to hold physical inventories than was the case a few years ago – a clear indication of an increased desire for precautionary inventory holdings. Even as inventories fell in late 2013 (and so far this year) this higher premium has remained in place. Current inventory levels under the old, pre-disruption regime would have corresponded to lower spot and/or higher future prices.

自2011年年初出现大规模的供应减产以来，经合组织的商业库存水平与价格之间的关系有所改变。自此以后的远期曲线走势表明，与几年前相比，市场参与者愿意支付与较高的期货价格溢价以持有实物库存——这明确表明持有预防性库存的意愿有所增强。即使库存水平在2013年末出现下滑（直至今年），上述较高溢价仍得以维持。如果是在供应中断前的旧机制下，当前的库存水平应导致出现较低的现货价格或较高的期货价格。

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Refining capacity


© BP 2014

Crude run changes 16.3%

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来源: 包括来自ICIS Parpinelli Tecnon and Energy Security Analysis, Inc.的数据 BP世界能源统计年鉴

© BP 2014

Refining炼油

Global refining has been struggling for years, squeezed between excess capacity and slower throughput growth. Regional disparities are adding to the woes of the sector, with more capacity being added East of Suez and US throughputs rising as a result of rising tight oil production: since crude exports from the US are legally constrained, US refineries are processing the discounted domestic crude at home and exporting products instead. 2014 so far saw a continuation of these trends.

全球炼油行业多年来一直饱受煎熬，在过剩的产能和加工量增长放缓的夹缝间腹背受敌。区域差异使该行业的处境雪上加霜，苏伊士以东的炼能有所增加而美国的加工量在致密油产量增加的推动下不断提高：由于美国的原油出口面临法律限制，美国炼油厂正在对价格较低的国内原油进行加工并转而出口成品油。2014年迄今，这些趋势仍得以延续。

Global refining capacity grew by 1.4 million b/d last year, the highest net capacity addition since 2009. Capacity growth was led by China [660 Kb/d] with the Middle East not far behind. Global crude runs, in contrast, grew by only 0.4 million b/d and as a result, global spare capacity is now almost 7 Mb/d more than it was in 2005, the low point in our data series. Despite this dismal background, global refining margins were strong during the first half of 2013 due to a combination of cold northern hemisphere weather and refinery outages.


去年，全球炼油能力增长140万桶/日，是2009年以来净炼能增量最大的年份。炼能增长的引领者是中国（66万桶/日），而中东紧随其后。与此对照，全球原油加工量仅增加40万桶/日，导致当前全球闲置炼能与2005年相比高出近700万桶/日，而2005年是我们数据系列中的低点。在这种惨淡的背景下，2013年上半年的全球炼油利润却非常可观，这得益于北半球的寒冷天气以及炼油厂停产所产生的综合作用。

长，新增物流能力跟不上原油供应普遍增加的步伐。因此，这种差距仍在不断变化。

The new pipeline infrastructure has made it possible to move more crude to the Gulf Coast, but export constraints mean that the price discounts have spread to a wider range of crudes. As a consequence, US refiners exported record volumes of distillate last year [1.1 Mb/d] rather than replenish domestic stocks. Its reduced dependence on long-haul crude imports may well have facilitated a longer term drop in working product inventory.

新的管道基础设施使更多原油运至墨西哥湾成为可能，但出口限制意味着更多类型原油的价格持续低迷。因此，美国炼厂去年的馏分油出口创下纪录，而非用以补充国内库存。美国对远道而来的原油的进口依存度降低，这很可能促使流动油品库存在长期内出现下滑。

Conversely, European crude runs in 2013 fell [-550 Kb/d], to their lowest annual level since 1985. European demand is contracting and – different from Asia – today’s problems can only be fixed by reducing capacity.

相反，2013年的欧洲原油加工量下降[-55万桶/日]，降至1985年以来的最低年度水平。欧洲需求正在萎缩，而且——与亚洲不同——只能通过削减炼能来解决当前问题。

77%

80%

83%

86%

89%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

World

OECD

Non-OECD

Brent-WTI $/bbl

Source: includes data from Energy Security Analysis, Inc. and Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy

© BP 2014

Refinery utilization

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布伦特-西德克萨斯

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炼厂开工率

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© BP 2014

Last year’s capacity and throughput developments meant that global average refinery utilization slipped to 80.4%, the lowest rate since 1987. Utilisation in the non-OECD fell to 78.5% because of the fast pace of capacity additions, but OECD refinery utilization improved marginally [82.4%], with US crude runs benefiting from continued price discounts for domestic crudes, and because of refinery shut downs elsewhere.

去年的炼能和加工量的动态使全球炼厂平均利用率降至80.4%，为1987年以来的最低水平。由于炼能增长的速度较快，非经合组织的炼厂利用率降至78.5%，而经合组织的炼厂利用率略有提高，其原因是美国的原油加工量增加，这得益于国内原油价格的持续低迷及世界其他地区炼厂的关闭。

The US added new crude oil pipeline capacity that helped to alleviate the transportation bottlenecks which drive relative WTI prices, but with tight oil output rising at a rapid clip, logistics additions are inevitably less uniform than the ramp-up in crude supply. As a result, the differential continues to be volatile.

美国建设了新的原油管道运输能力以缓解推动西德克萨斯轻质原油相对价格的运输瓶颈，但由于致密油产量迅猛增


To disentangle what happened, let’s start with the latest chapter of the evolving US shale story. This chapter starts with slowing production growth; from 7.3% in 2011, to 5% in 2012 and 1.3% in 2013. It has nothing to do with “running out of shale” – as some pundits have claimed – and everything to do with the fungibility of drilling rigs and the power of price signals.

为揭开真相，首先来看看不断演变的美国页岩传奇的最新章节。该章节以产量增长减缓作为开篇：从2011年的7.3%降至2012年的5%，进而减至2013年的1.3%。与某些权威人士的说法不同，这种情况与“页岩气枯竭”并没有关系，而是与钻探设备流动性及价格信号的威力密切相关。

US gas prices hit a 13 year low in 2012, and started rebounding in the wake of a cold winter early in 2013. For the year they were up 34.5% on average, almost offsetting the 2012 decline. However, because of the persistently high oil-gas price differential, this was not enough to accelerate production growth. It remained more attractive to “chase liquids”, i.e. to continue to divert drilling rigs from shale gas to tight oil production. Almost all the growth in gas production last year came from associated and wet shale gas; dry shale gas was down.

2012年，美国的天然气价格跌至13年以来的最低点，随后在2013年年初的寒冬后开始反弹。美国的气价在2013年平均上涨34.5%，几乎抵消了2012年的跌幅。然而，由于石油-天然气的价差持续居高不下，这种价格反弹不足以推动

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© BP 2014

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US natural gas market


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11年2月 12年2月 13年2月 14年2月

Natural Gas天然气

Natural gas markets are slowly transforming themselves, on the back of two developments: the shale gas “revolution” in the US and the increasing integration of hitherto segmented regional markets, supported by the rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2013, these forces took a breather - US shale gas production growth slowed, and LNG expansion remained very modest.

天然气市场正在发生缓慢变化，呈现两个发展动态：美国的页岩气“革命”以及目前分割性区域市场在液化天然气迅速发展的推动下实现不断整合。2013年，这些因素的势头减缓——美国的页岩气产量增长放缓，而液化天然气发展幅度仍然很小。

Globally, growth of consumption [1.4%], production [1.1%] and trade [1.8%] all slowed. Regional price differentials narrowed. As in all other fossil fuels, the slowdown in demand growth was more pronounced in the developing world: natural gas was the only fuel where OECD consumption growth outpaced non-OECD growth. Like oil, tracing OECD growth leads to the US; unlike oil, China was not the reason for weak growth in the non-OECD.

从全球来看，消费[1.4%]、生产[1.1%]和贸易[1.8%]增长均有所放缓。区域价差缩小。与其它的所有化石燃料一样，发展中国家的需求放缓更为明显：天然气是经合组织的消费增长超过非经合组织的唯一燃料。与石油的情况相同，经合

组织消费增长的动力是美国；与石油不同的是，中国并不是导致非经合组织消费增长疲软的原因。


产量加速增长。“追寻液体燃料”仍然更具有吸引力，导致生产页岩气的钻探设备继续被用于致密油的生产。去年，几乎全部的天然气增产量来自伴生气和湿气；干气产量下降。

Higher prices, low storage and the demand for heating signalled by a 17% increase in residential and commercial demand, however, did induce a dramatic pull out of natural gas from power generation – the point where it faces head-on competition with other fuels. Total US consumption grew by 2.4% but gas-fired power generation declined by 8.9%, substituted by coal; coal-fired generation grew by 5%. For the first time since 2008, gas lost market share in US power generation, falling back almost 3 percentage points [30.3% to 27.4%] - the biggest such loss since 1973.

然而，高价格、低库存及17%的民用和商业需求增长所表现出的旺盛取暖需求确实使发电部门中的天然气份额急剧下降——天然气在发电部门直面来自其他燃料的竞争。美国的天然气消费总量增加2.4%，但天然气发电量减少8.9%（被煤炭取代）；燃煤发电量增长5%。自2008年以来，天然气在美国发电部门的市场份额首次出现下降，减少近3个百分点[从30.3%降至27.4%]——是1973年以来的最大降幅。

液化天然气项目规模庞大，而且需要巨额投资。目前，液化天然气的供应增长正处于多年以来的低潮，产能扩建非常有限。2013年，供应仅增加0.6%。这使市场供应呈现紧张状况，并将灵活的货物调配给愿意且能够支付高价的客户。因此，我们很自然地见证了重大调整。81%的亚洲天然气进口是液化天然气，亚洲仍是液化天然气贸易的主要目的地，吸纳了近75%的液化天然气货物。

Japan remained the world’s largest LNG importer, with post-Fukushima demand for LNG persisting at record levels – but its gas fired power plants are now operating at full capacity, and so Japanese imports have stopped growing. Instead, South Korea assumed the mantle of recording the world’s largest import growth, and again triggered by nuclear outages.

日本仍是世界最大的液化天然气进口国，福岛事故后对液化天然气的需求持续创下新高——但日本的天然气发电厂目前正满负荷运行，因此日本的进口已停止增长。相反，韩国接过衣钵，创下世界最大的进口增量，这也是核电停产的结果。

Meanwhile in China, big strides were made toward the stated political goal of increasing the share of natural gas in the energy mix [currently 5.1%]. At 10.8%, China logged the biggest increase in gas consumption in the world last year [15.3 Bcm]. And although production listed the second largest global increment [9.5%, 9.9 Bcm], this still left a large gap for import growth. The gap was filled by rising LNG [up 22.9%]as well as pipeline imports [28.0%]; the latter mostly from Central Asia where tentative steps toward domestic price reform in Turkmenistan – coincidence or not – lowered consumption by roughly the amount of additional pipeline exports.

与此同时，中国在实现提高天然气在能源结构中的比重[目前为5.1%]这一既定政治目标方面取得了巨大的进展。去年，中国的天然气消费增长10.8%[153亿立方米]，居世界首位。虽然中国的天然气生产实现全球第二大增量[9.5%，99亿立方米]，但仍有巨大的缺口需要通过增加进口予以解决。这一缺口主要是通过进口液化天然气[增长22.9%]和管道天然气[28.0%]来填补；管道天然气多来自中亚，来自该区域的土库曼斯坦采取的国内价格改革等临时举措拉低了国内消费量，而减额大致与其管道天然气出口量旗鼓相当（姑且不论是否纯属巧合）。

The flip-side of higher demand growth and limited LNG availability is that it puts the spot-light on problems with domestic production. India is the prime example: caps on producer prices have stalled investment and last year led to the world’s largest decline in gas production [-6.7 Bcm or -16.3%]. Lack of cheaper priced domestic gas and the huge price advantage of coal over LNG imports has caused large scale substitution of gas with coal, assigning to India also the world’s largest decline in gas consumption [-7.3 Bcm or -12.2%]. Ironically, almost a third of the coal was imported.


© BP 2014

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© BP 2014

LNG projects are large and investments can be lumpy. Currently, supply growth is in the middle of a multi-year lull, with very limited capacity expansion. In 2013, supplies expanded by merely 0.6%. This is keeping markets tight, allocating flexible cargoes to those willing and able to pay high prices. Small wonder, then, that we are witnessing massive adjustments. Asia, where fully 81% of all natural gas imports are met by LNG, remained the prime destination, with almost 75% of all cargoes headed that way.


液化天然气的需求增高而供应有限在另一方面则突出体现了国内生产问题。印度是一个典型实例：印度对生产商设定的价格上限阻碍了投资，导致印度在去年出现天然气产量方面的世界最大降幅[67亿立方米或16.3%]。缺乏低价的国内天然气供应及煤炭与进口液化天然气相比具有巨大价格优势，这促使煤炭大规模地取代天然气，使印度的天然气消费也出现世界最大的降幅[73亿立方米或12.2%]。具有讽刺意味的是，印度三分之一的煤炭来自进口。

下降[-2.6%]。在发电部门，天然气难以与价格更低的煤炭和非化石燃料竞争：在发电部门，天然气市场份额的降幅超过煤炭；而非化石燃料的市场份额有所增加。但总体来看，由于取暖需求增加，欧盟的天然气消费降幅仍低于煤炭。

As was the case for global oil markets, EU imports were affected by the social unrest plaguing Africa. Falling exports from North Africa [-18.7%], Nigeria [-43.9%], and also Norway [-5.2%] meant a need for alternative deliveries. In the event, Russia stepped into the void, eliminating the need to compete for expensive LNG. The net result was a big shift in the composition of imports, with imports from Russian rising by 19.5% – a marked reversal of 2012, when Russia had lost 12% of the EU gas market to Norway because Gazprom maintained oil price indexation while Norway adjusted its pricing closer to spot prices. In 2013 the rapid increase of European spot prices eroded much of the previous differential, but Gazprom, by its own accounts, also offered discounts and rebates to sell gas on more competitive terms.

与全球石油市场的情况相同，欧盟的进口受到困扰非洲的社会动乱影响。北非[-18.7%]、尼日利亚[-43.9%]和挪威[-5.2%]的出口供应量减少意味着欧盟需要寻找替代性供应来源。在此情况下，俄罗斯填补了空缺，使欧盟不需要参加对昂贵的液化天然气的竞争。这种情况产生净结果是欧洲的进口结构发生重大变化，来自俄罗斯的进口量增长19.5%——明显逆转了2012年的状况，俄罗斯在当年被挪威夺走了12%的欧盟天然气市场份额，其原因是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司坚持将气价与石油价格挂钩的做法，而挪威则将供气价格调整至接近现货价格的水平。2013年，欧盟的现货价格迅猛攀升，在很大程度上缩小了此前的价差，但就俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司自身而言，它也通过提供折扣和返利以更优惠条款出售天然气。

EU natural gas market


© BP 2014

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© BP 2014

Europe took a rain check on the competition for LNG, helped out by Russia. EU production appears in terminal decline and consumption reached the lowest level since 1999. In 2013 consumption fell by 1.1% and production by 0.5%, and imports declined slightly.

由于俄罗斯的供应，欧洲暂缓对液化天然气的争夺。欧盟的液化天然气产量似乎每况愈下，而消费量则降至1999年以来的最低水平。2013年，其消费减少1.1%，产量下降0.5%，而进口略有下滑。

As in the US, the year had started with a cold winter and low storage levels. Demand for heating drove up spot prices by 12.3% for the year, whereas oil-indexed contract prices fell gently and in line with the price of oil [-2.6%]. Gas lost the competition in power generation against cheaper coal and non-fossil fuels: in power, its market share declined by more than that of coal; while non-fossils gained. Overall though, EU gas consumption still fell less than coal, because of increased heating demand.

与美国的情况相同，欧洲在2013年初也面临寒冷的冬季及很低的库存水平。旺盛的取暖需求将当年的现货价格推高12.3%，而与油价挂钩的合同价格跟随石油价格的步伐略有


Russia bucked the global trend: gas production increased by 2.4% or 12.4 Bcm – the largest production increase in the world, on the back of higher capacity utilization and increasing output from independent gas producers – that is all producers except Gazprom, which holds the export monopoly. Last year they accounted for 28% of Russia’s production and, because they offer cheaper gas, supplied 39% of Russia’s domestic gas consumption. The erosion of its market share at home allowed Gazprom to direct more resources abroad.

俄罗斯的情况与全球趋势背道而驰：天然气产量增加2.4%，即124亿立方米——实现了世界最大的增产量，这是源自开工率的提高和独立天然气生产商产量的增加——即除拥有出口垄断权的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司之外的所有生产商。去年，独立生产商贡献了俄罗斯产量的28%，由于这些企业的天然气价格较低，它们提供了俄罗斯国内天然气消费量的39%。而鉴于其国内市场份额走低，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司得以将更多的资源出口到海外。

A drop in domestic gas consumption also helped [-0.4%, -2.8 Bcm], in part because Russia’s Far East suffered from severe flooding early in 2013; the one silver lining to this cloud was the second biggest growth in Russian hydropower on record. Together with falling electricity demand, it reduced the call on all other fuels for power generation, including natural gas to make room for more exports. All told, exports grew by 18.6% or 10.7 Bcm.

俄罗斯的国内天然气消费下滑也是原因之一[-0.4%，28亿立方米]，这在一定程度上是由于俄罗斯远东地区在2013年年初遭遇严重洪水；在那场灾难后，俄罗斯的水电因祸得福，实现了有史以来的第二大增长。再加上电力需求下降，发电部门减少了对包括天然气在内的所有其它发电燃料的需求，这为增加天然气出口创造了空间。总而言之，俄罗斯的天然气出口增加18.6%，即107亿立方米。

How do these differing regional stories affect the evolution of global gas trade? Trade has grown at more than twice the rate of global consumption for at least two decades, with LNG expanding even faster. Since 2011, this relationship has started to de-couple, with trade growth slower than consumption and LNG losing market share. In 2013, gas trade expanded by only 1.8%, slightly above consumption growth but considerably below the long term average of 5.2% p.a., with pipeline trade again expanding faster [2.3%] than LNG [0.6%].

这些不尽相同的区域发展动态对全球天然气贸易产生了何种影响？在过去至少二十年里，天然气贸易的增长是全球消费增长的两倍以上，而液化天然气的发展更快。自2011年以来，这种关系开始发生变化，贸易的增长慢于消费的增长，而液化天然气的市场份额有所萎缩。2013年，天然气贸易仅增长1.8%，略高于消费增长，但远低于5.2%的长期平均水平，其中管道天然气贸易的增长[2.3%]还是快于液化天然气[0.6%]。

The temporary lull in LNG supply growth can not obscure

the general direction of travel – towards a more inter-connected gas world. One episode from 2013 nicely illustrates the degree of integration international gas markets have already achieved: gas displaced by strong hydro growth in Russia was exported to Europe while LNG destined for Europe was re-exported to drought-stricken South American markets. In effect, hydroelectricity from Russia with too much rainfall was shipped half way around the globe to South America with too little rain – and in the form of natural gas.

液化天然气供应增长的暂时低潮无法阻扰其总体发展方向——建立相互关联度更高的世界天然气格局。2013年发生的一个事件很好地诠释了国际天然气市场业已实现的一体化程度：俄罗斯的天然气被发展强劲的水电抢占其市场份额，从而出口至欧洲，而原来运往欧洲的液化天然气则被转而出口到遭遇干旱的南美市场。事实上，俄罗斯过于丰裕的降雨产生的水电在跨越半个地球后被运到降雨匮乏的地区——但却是以天然气的方式运送。

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Coal煤炭


Coal rounds out the fossil fuel picture. In developing economies, this fuel of industrialization often is a reasonable indicator of economic health; in the OECD, coal markets are characterized more by competition with other fuels in power generation, driven by politics as much as by prices. 2013 was no exception.

煤炭是化石燃料的最后一块拼图。对于发展中经济体而言，这种工业化燃料通常是经济健康的合理指标；对于经合组织，煤炭市场的特点更多表现为在发电部门与其它燃料进行竞争，并受到政治和价格因素的影响，2013年也不例外。

Overall, coal markets slowed. Consumption growth of 3.0% remained below its long term average; production growth [0.8%] was the weakest since 2002; prices fell in all regions on de-stocking and low demand while regional price differentials narrowed with intensifying competition between suppliers.

总体而言，煤炭市场发展放缓。消费增长3.0%，仍然低于其长期的平均水平；产量增长是2002年以来最疲软的一年[0.8%]；在去库存化和低需求的综合作用下，各区域的价格均出现下跌，而供应商之间竞争加剧则缩小了区域价差。

The big story in coal markets is China, where coal accounts for 67% of the national energy mix. Coal consumption rose by 4% in 2013, less than half the ten year average [8.3% p.a.]. New policies to conquer local pollution by shutting down coal-intensive production and encouraging coal substitution may have played a part, but the scale of such measures is limited by the restricted availability of natural gas. In China, the share of the service sector in GDP exceeded that of the industrial sector for the first time last year and so moderating industrial production growth was one contributing factor. Still, it remains hard to reconcile the coal slowdown with steady GDP growth.

煤炭市场的主力军是中国，中国的煤炭在国家能源结构中的比重达到67%。2013年，中国的煤炭消费增长4%，不足其过去十年平均水平的一半[8.3%]。关停煤炭密集型工厂及鼓励发展煤炭替代燃料等力求减轻当地污染的新政策可能发挥了一定作用，但这些措施的规模受到有限的天然气供应的制约。在中国，服务业在国内生产总值中的比重在去年首次超过工业，因此，工业生产增长放缓是一个驱动因素。然而，如何在抑制煤炭增长的同时保持国内生产总值的稳定仍然是个难题。

Elsewhere we find the data corresponding to the fuel switching described in the gas section. In India, rapidly declining domestic gas production and the price advantage of coal over LNG imports caused coal consumption to rise by 7.6%, the second largest volumetric increase on record. In the OECD, US consumption rebounded [4.6%] on higher natural gas prices whereas in the EU’s shrinking energy market, coal contracted [-2.5%] faster than gas, losing market share also to renewables.

在其他地方，我们发现与天然气章节所述燃料转换相对

应的数据：在印度，国内天然气产量迅速下降而且煤炭相对于进口液化天然气具备价格优势，这使煤炭消费增长7.6%，为有史以来的第二大增量。在经合组织，美国的煤炭消费由于天然气价格走高而出现反弹[4.6%]，而在日益萎缩的欧盟能源市场，煤炭的降幅超过天然气[-2.5%]，而且还被可再生能源夺走了市场份额。

Coal production and trade mirrored these patterns. Chinese coal production slowed to 1.2%, the lowest increment since 2000. For the first time in 15 years, China did not record the world’s largest increase in coal production; Indonesia did. China became the world’s largest net coal importer in 2012 and cheaper foreign coal made further inroads into Chinese markets last year. Seaborne trade growth slowed [to 4.3% from 14.5% in 2012 for steam coal] but, in an environment of falling prices and rising transport costs, producers were quick to adjust. Production increased the most among suppliers with easy access to Pacific markets, such as Indonesia [9.4%] and Australia [7.3%] while production in the US [-3.1%] and Columbia [-3.7%] declined in line with falling demand in Europe and global price differentials.

煤炭的生产和贸易状况也体现出上述模式。中国的煤炭生产增长放缓至1.2%，为2000年以来的最小增幅。在过去15年以来，中国首次没有实现世界煤炭生产的最大增长；被印尼取而代之。中国在2012年成为世界最大的煤炭净进口国，价格较低的外国煤炭在去年进一步进入中国市场。海上运输贸易增长放缓[动力煤从2012年的14.5%降至4.3%]，但是，在价格下跌和运输成本上涨的环境下，生产商迅速进行调整。容易进入太平洋市场的供应商产量增长最大，如印尼[9.4%]和澳大利亚[7.3%]，而美国[-3.1%]和哥伦比亚[-3.7%]的产量由于欧洲需求下滑及全球价差而出现下降。


Non fossil fuels非化石燃料

time of writing, all of Japan’s nuclear reactors are offline. Elsewhere, declines in Korea, Ukraine, Spain and Russia were offset by growth in the US [21 TWh, 2.8%] and in China [13 TWh, 13.9%].

核能的贡献最小[0.9%，15万亿瓦时]，仅仅中止了两年以来的颓势。后福岛事故时期的安全审查规模开始缩小，停止运行的反应堆数目减少。在日本，核能发电量继续下滑[-3.4万亿瓦时，-18.6%]，而且核电量已经处于低点。在编写本文时，日本所有的核反应堆都已关闭。在其他国家，韩国、乌克兰、西班牙和俄罗斯的核电降幅被美国[21万亿瓦时，2.8%]和中国[13万亿瓦时，13.9%]的增幅所抵消。

Global hydro growth slipped to 2.9%, down from 4.5% in 2012, largely because of slowing capacity additions in China and – how could it be otherwise – global precipitation patterns: Brazil experienced severe drought conditions for the second consecutive year [-7.0%] while Europe and Eurasia saw a second year of generation increase [5.5%]. Slow growth it may have been, but it was enough to lift the share of hydropower in global primary energy to a new record of 6.7%.

全球水电的增长率从2012年的4.5%降至2.9%，其主要原因是中国的产能扩张放缓以及——非常直观的原因——全球降水格局：巴西连续第二年经历严重旱灾[-7.0%]，而欧洲和欧亚大陆的水力发电量连续第二年增加[5.5%]。虽然增长可能比较缓慢，但足以使水电在全球一次能源中的比重增至创纪录的6.7%。

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Many will not be aware that the share of non-fossil fuels in total power generation was on a declining trend through the 1990s and the early 2000s, as renewables were too small to make a difference and the growth of hydro and nuclear failed to keep up with total power generation. Only over the past decade have faster hydro growth and the scaling up of renewables halted the decline.

很多人可能不太清楚，上世纪90年代和21世纪初，非化石燃料在发电总量中的比重呈现下降趋势，其原因是可再生能源的规模太小，无法产生真正的影响，而且水电和核电的增长未能与发电总量的增长同步。在过去十年里，水电的加速增长和可再生能源的迅猛发展中止了上述颓势。

2013 was a big year for non-fossil fuels: growth was above average, they increased their share of global power generation to almost one third [32.5%], crowding out fossil generation in the EU and the US along the way.

2013年对非化石燃料而言是重要的一年：其增长超出平均水平，在全球发电量中的比重几乎达到三分之一[32.5%]，在欧盟和美国则抢夺了化石燃料在发电部门的份额。

Nuclear made the smallest contribution [0.9%, 15 TWh], simply by ending two years of decline. Post-Fukushima safety reviews were scaled down and fewer reactors were out of operation. In Japan, generation continued to fall [-3.4 TWh, -18.6%], but from already extremely low levels. At the

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This leaves us with renewable power, the largest contributor to non-fossil growth in 2013. Power generation from renewables grew by 16.3%. This was the lowest


growth rate since 2009 while growth in volume terms [170 TWh] recorded an all-time high. Renewables made a larger contribution to primary energy growth than natural gas. As a share of global electricity generation, renewable power reached 5.3% in 2013, up from 2.7% five years earlier.

可再生能源是2013年非化石燃料增长的最大动力。这是2013年非化石燃料增长的最大推手。可再生能源发电量增长16.3%。这是2009年以来的最低增长率，但按量计算的增长[170太瓦时]达到历史最高水平。可再生能源对一次能源增长的贡献超过天然气。2013年，可再生能源在全球发电中的比重从五年前的2.7%增至5.3%。

As a share of total global primary energy, renewables stood at 2.2% last year; adding in biofuels brings the renewable total to 2.7%.

去年，可再生能源在全球一次能源中的比重为2.2%；如果加上生物燃料，该比重总计为2.7%。

Renewables grew in all regions, and in almost all countries. The EU as a bloc is still ahead of the US and China, in annual increment and in the share of renewables in power generation. The EU now receives 15.0% of its power from renewable sources. At the same time, however, the EU growth rate has slowed, from 20.6% in 2011, to 18.0% in 2012 and 13.5% last year, leaving even the 2013 volume increment smaller than the 2011 and 2012 increments. It is no accident that this slowdown affects most the very region where penetration rates, and therefore subsidies, are highest.

所有地区和几乎所有国家的可再生能源都有所发展。在年增量及可再生能源在发电部门中的比重方面，欧盟作为一个整体仍超过美国和中国。欧盟目前有15.0%的电力来自可再生能源。然而与此同时，欧盟的可再生能源增速放缓，从2011年的20.6%降至2012年的18.0%，进而降至2013年的13.5%，使2013年的增量低于2011年和2012年。并非巧合的是，受上述增长放缓影响最大的区域是普及率及补贴最高的地区。

The coincidence of slower growth rates with high volumetric contribution points at the underlying dilemma. Renewables are still subsidized. Sizeable annual increments reflect the scale renewables have already reached, while the slowdown of their growth indicates the weakening of financial support as they scale up and the burden of rising subsidies on society increases.

同时出现的增速放缓与供应量增加体现出一种根本性困境。可再生能源仍得到补贴。可观的年度增量反映了可再生能源已经达到的规模，而增速放缓则说明财政支持随着可再生能源规模的扩大有所减少，同时不断攀升的补贴给社会带来了更沉重的负担。

The fuel mix and carbon emissions燃料结构和碳排放

Fuel shares and carbon emissions


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An easy way of weaving the annual fuel by fuel changes into a coherent pattern is to look at how they affect the global fuel mix. With the exception of gas, which saw its market share dip to 23.7%, the shares of each fuel pushed into unfamiliar territory in 2013. Oil’s share declined to 32.9%, a new low in our data set and extending a 40 year declining trend that goes back to the first oil price shock in 1973. Coal’s share took another step on the steady upward march that had started in 2002, when non-OECD industrialisation started in earnest; its share increased to 30.1%, the highest since 1970.

以协调一致的模式来分析各种燃料年度变化的简单方法是探讨其对全球燃料结构的影响。2013年，除天然气的市场份额降至23.7%外，其它各种燃料的市场份额都进入了不常见的区间。石油的市场份额降至32.9%，是我们建立数据集以来的新低，并延续了1973年首次石油危机以来连续40年的下降趋势。随着非经合组织工业化开始火力全开，煤炭的市场份额延续了2002年开始的稳步攀升曲线，并再创新高。煤炭的市场份额增至30.1%，达到1970年以来的最高水平。

Carbon emissions per energy unit vary widely among fuels, and so the evolution of the fuel mix has implications for carbon emissions. In 2013, non-fossil fuels in power enjoyed relatively strong growth, increasing their aggregate share of primary energy [from 13.1% to 13.3%]. Despite this, global carbon emissions grew almost as rapidly as total


primary energy [2.1% versus 2.3%] because of the rising share of coal. This has been a very important trend over the years – carbon emissions have grown less rapidly than GDP courtesy of improved energy efficiency, but they did keep pace with energy consumption. In other words, there has been no change in the carbon intensity of the global fuel mix over the last decade. In the OECD, carbon emissions per unit of energy declined in 2013 due to the increased share of non-fossil fuels. In the non-OECD, the rising share of non-fossil fuels was offset by the rising share of coal and the declining share of natural gas – and emissions grew at the same rate as primary energy [3.1%].

单位能源的碳排放在各种燃料之间差异巨大，因此，燃料结构的演变会对碳排放产生影响。2013年，发电部门使用的非化石燃料实现较为强劲的增长，其在一次能源中的总体比重有所提高[从13.1%至13.3%]。尽管如此，由于煤炭的比重不断提高，全球碳排放的增速几乎与一次能源总量增速持平[2.1%对比2.3%]。这是过去多年里出现的非常重要的趋势——在能效提高的推动下，碳排放的增速低于国内生产总值的增速，但与能源消费的增速同步。换而言之，全球燃料结构中的碳强度在过去十年里没有发生变化。由于非化石燃料的比重提高，经合组织2013年单位能源的碳排放有所下降。但在非经合组织，非化石燃料比重的提高被煤炭比重的提高和天然气比重的下降抵消——排放增速与一次能源增速持平[3.1%]。

The net result is that carbon emissions continue to rise too fast for comfort – restrained by improving energy efficiency, but not affected by changes in the global fuel mix. In the US, for example, much of the large decline in emissions recorded in 2012 was reversed last year as the power sector switched back to coal and away from gas. From the dimensions of the system, it is easy to see how even small switches from coal to gas could dramatically impact global emissions growth.

上述情况的最终结果是碳排放仍然增长过快而且令人不安——能效提高发挥了一定作用，但全球燃料结构的变化未能对碳排放产生积极影响。例如在美国，随着发电部门再次青睐煤炭而摒弃天然气，2012年实现的大幅减排在去年被逆转。从系统的各个方面来看，很容易发现，即使小规模煤改气也能极大地影响到全球排放增长。

The one region reaping benefits from changes in the fuel mix was the EU where strong growth of renewables and hydro contributed to declines in both coal and gas use in power. EU emissions in 2013 were more than 13% below their 1990 level – and, like oil, almost back to where they were in 1969. For the world as a whole, however, emissions are 55% above the 1990 level.

从燃料结构变化中受益的一个区域是欧盟，其可再生能源和水电的强劲增长促使发电部门的煤炭和天然气使用量双双下降。2013年，欧盟的排放量比1990年的水平低13%以上——而且与石油的情况类似，碳排放几乎恢复至1969年的水平。然而，就全世界整体而言，排放仍比1990年的水平高出55%。

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Let us conclude by returning to one of the issues raised at the beginning – the linkages between energy and the economy; and to an example of how the remarkable shift in physical energy balances which has occurred over the last decade will affect the global economy.

最后，让我们回到本文开头所提出的一个问题——能源与经济之间的关联性；并回顾一个实例，即实物能源平衡在过去十年所发生的沧桑巨变对全球经济产生了什么影响。

China, the US and Russia are the world’s top three consumers and producers of energy today – in this order, and for both consumption and production. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, while the US and China are the second and third biggest importers (after Japan).

中国、美国和俄罗斯是当今世界的三大能源消费国和生产国——排序如上，消费和生产的排名次序都是如此。俄罗斯是世界最大的化石燃料出口国，而美国和中国则分别是第二和第三大进口国（排名在日本之后）。

Over the last ten years, physical energy imbalances for these countries – simply the difference between domestic production and consumption – have shifted. Globally, the US had the biggest increase in oil and gas production – and the largest decline in oil and coal consumption. China had the biggest increase in coal production and in the consumption


of every single fossil fuel. Russia had the second biggest increment in oil production.

在过去十年里，这些国家的实物能源平衡状况—即国内生产与消费之差——发生了转变。从全球来看，美国的石油和天然气生产增幅最大——石油和煤炭消费则出现最大降幅。中国的煤炭生产及各种化石燃料消费增幅最大。俄罗斯的石油生产增量位列次席。

Working out the net results of changes in physical production and consumption shows China’s deficit for oil and gas worsening by almost exactly the same magnitude by which the US deficit improved. As a result, the Chinese primary energy deficit overtook that of the US for the first time last year. Russia’s surplus improved for every fossil fuel over this period, so far allowing it to maintain its position as the world’s largest holder of an energy surplus.

对实物生产与消费变化差值的计算结果表明，中国的油气赤字增幅与美国的赤字减幅几乎完全相同。因此，中国的一次能源赤字在去年首次超过美国。在同一时期，俄罗斯各种化石燃料的盈余进一步增加，使其迄今为止保持了世界最大的能源盈余国地位。

中一个影响是国际收支平衡效应。全球能源贸易约占全球货物与服务贸易的15%，国家能源平衡状况的变化通常会对任何国家的国际收支平衡造成严重影响。

In the US, energy imports still make up about half of the trade deficit. However, on the back of diminishing oil and gas imports, this deficit is shrinking fast. China, on the other hand, sees increasing import dependence eating into its trade surplus; despite rapid economic growth, energy imports as a share of GDP almost tripled from 2003 to 2013.

在美国，能源进口仍约占贸易赤字的一半。然而，随着美国石油和天然气进口的减少，这一赤字正在迅速缩小。另一方面，中国不断增强的进口依存度减少了其贸易盈余；虽然经济增长迅猛，但2013年能源进口在中国国内生产总值中所占比重几乎是2003年的三倍。

Russia has a sizeable trade surplus [5.7% of GDP] due to its energy exports. However, if expressed as a share of GDP, the non-energy related deficit doubled over the last ten years while energy exports grew in line with GDP. If expressed as a share of GDP, Russia’s overall trade surplus is falling fast.

俄罗斯由于其能源出口而拥有巨额贸易盈余[国内生产总值的5.7%]。但是，如果从在国内生产总值中所占比重的角度进行分析，非能源相关的赤字在过去十年里翻了一番，而能源出口与国内生产总值同步增长。如果从在国内生产总值中所占比重进行分析，俄罗斯的总体贸易盈余正在迅速下降。

If one would have asked any economist over the last ten years for potential sources of trouble to the global economy, global trade imbalances would have loomed large in the response. From today’s point of view it seems as if global energy balances, by eating into the US deficit as well as into the Chinese surplus, are becoming a part of the solution.

如果有人在过去十年就影响全球经济的潜在因素询问任何一位经济学家，全球贸易失衡一定是主要答案。从今天的角度来看，全球能源平衡——通过减少美国赤字和中国盈余——正在成为解决方案的组成部分。

Trade balances and energy

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

Trillion $US US


© BP 2014

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

Other goods & servicesEnergyNet balance

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

Trillion $US China

Trillion $US Russia

Source: includes data from CEIC and Thomson Reuters Datastream

贸易差额和能源

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

万亿美元

美国

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

其他货物和服务

能源

净平衡差额

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2001 2005 2009 2013

万亿美元

中国

万亿美元

俄罗斯

来源: 包括来自CEIC和Thomson Reuters Datastream的数据 BP世界能源统计年鉴

© BP 2014

These shifts in physical energy balances do have macroeconomic implications. One of them is a global balance of payment effect. Global energy trade amounts to roughly 15% of the global trade in goods and services and changes in national energy balances typically have a sizeable effect on any countries balance of payments.

这些实物能源平衡状况的变化确实影响到宏观经济。其


Where does this leave us? I have done this for nine years now, so please allow for a short personal conclusion.

我们能够从这些事实中提炼出什么要素？迄今为止，我已连续9年进行此类分析，因此谨在此提供简短的个人意见。

Energy goes directly or indirectly into any type of economic activity. It clearly matters, and the link to the economy is not a one way street. But few economists devote time to it. By taking energy matters out of this wider context, the discussion suffers and often does not reflect the attention this topic deserves.

能源直接或间接地参与各种类型的经济活动。这显然十分重要，并且能源与经济之间并非只有单向关联。但鲜有经济学家在此问题上投入时间。如果脱离上述广泛背景看待能源问题，相关的讨论就会受到影响而且通常无法反映出本专题理应得到的关注。

Second, every year we encounter weird twists and turns in the data. And every year, in the journey to find out what happened and why, it is rigorous interrogation of the data which delivers answers. This is another aspect, where more work could benefit us as an industry, and those who need to understand the work we do.

其次，我们每年都看到数据的诡异波折。每一年，在探

结语

2013年世界能源

• 能源和经济–双向相关

• 能源发展动态–体现在数据中

• 让市场发挥作用–市场就会起作用


© BP 2014

索事实及原因的旅程中，正是严格的数据考查工作提供了答案。这是我要说到的另一个方面，在此领域开展更多的工作有利于整个行业以及对我们所从事工作的理解。

And finally, there is an old adage, which always creeps up in the end – markets matter. It comes with an addendum, however – if you let them. In global energy and energy politics, perhaps much more than elsewhere in policy making, we see both sides of this coin. This is not what the Statistical Review is about, but it is what falls out of the data we collect – every year.

最后，正如总是作为结语的古老格言所述——市场为王。但是不要忽略这句格言的附言：你得让市场发挥作用。与决策所涉的任何其他领域相比，我们更能在全球能源和能源政治中见证事物的正反两面。虽然并非能源统计年鉴的初衷，但这是我们每年收集的客观数据揭示的结论。

Conclusion


© BP 2014

Energy in 2013

• Energy and the economy – a two way relationship • When things happen – ask the data

• Markets work – if you let them

Conclusion结语

energy in 2013: taking stock 2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑 ·...

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