energy planning as an instrument of forecasting … · energy planning as an instrument of...
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Planning as an Instrument of Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation
Irina Voitekhovitch
PhD, Joint Institute of Nuclear and Power Research ‘Sosny’, Minsk, Belarus
23rd Ph.D. Workshop on International Climate Policy 20 - 21 October 2011 MALTA
Research Target Setting
Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
New (stricter!) commitments for Kyoto-2
Adaptation and mitigation targets
Country strategy on GHG emission reduction
Commitments on GHG reduction -8% for 2008-2012 as against 1990
Belarus – country with economy in transition
Stable annual GDP growth 8-10%
Replacement of gas (roughly 85% of energy balance) by peat, coal, mazut, nuclear
Increasing electricity consumption
Climate Change
Mitigation
Energy Security
Economic growth
Research aims to
1. investigate the existing energy models to analyze energy systems
2. develop a model of the fuel and energy complex of Belarus to
3. forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and long term prospective (assess the environmental effects of any energy and climate strategy)
4. analyse the establishment of regional emission trading system to increase contribution in preventing climate change.
Models for analysis of energy systems
Description: BALANCE gives the possibility to find the balance between demand on different forms of energy and available energy resources and technologies
Special features: very user unfriendly
Advantages: price sensitivity, lag factor, premium multiplier, carbon tax modeling, CHP modeling, several types of fuel
E2M2s
EFDA‐TIMES AMIGA
EERA
EFOM
ENUSIM
ENPEP GTMax
ICARUS
LEAP
LIEF
MAED
MARKAL
MACRO
MESAP
MESSAGE
NEMS
NEMS
RETScreen
TIMES
WASP
Energy PLAN
ENPEP BALANCE
Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Natural Gas Oil-well gas LPG Refinery gas
Communal fuel Mazut Coal Peat, lignin
Firewood Other Petroleum coke
Structure of energy resources consumption, mln tce
99.800%
99.850%
99.900%
99.950%
100.000%
Heat Power Station Hydro Wind
Structure of electricity production
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Combined Heat and Power Stations
Boiler-houses
Heat Recovery Stations
Structure of heat energy production FEC characteristics - key GHG emitter – 64,4% (2008) - gas-coal, peat, mazut - accelerated pace of growth
FEC sub-sectors: - fuel - refinery - energy sector - communal and houses sector - agriculture - transport - industry
Mazut
OIL PROD
NG
A
Wind
Hydro
INDUSTRY
AGRICULTURE
TRANSPORT
Exist
Peat
Energy sector - conversion
Nuclear Coal
RESIDENTIAL
Mazut NG
Coal
Imported
electricity
Nuclear
Wind
Hydro
RESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE
NuPS
CPP
Coal PS
CHP
Boilers
Wood&Peat
CHP
Boilers
HEAТ
TRANSPORT
ENERGY SECTOR
Total current capacity of energy
system – ca. 8000 MW
1. Condensing PP – 4000 MW ( Lukoml - 2400 MW, Bereza - 1060 MW, Minsk-5 - 330 MW)
2. Combined CHP - 3935 MW– Big (3555 MW), Middle (350 MW), Mini (16 MW), Block-Stations (185 MW), Wind (2 MW), Hydro (12 MW)
3. Boilers:
1. MinEnergy – 8500 MW
2. Big Boilers – 28 000 MW
3. Small Boilers gas – 6400 MW
4. Small Boilers peat – 3000 MW
Future - ?????
Considered scenarios
Scenario 1 – Construction of
nuclear power plant (NPP Scenario)
1 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2018
2 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2019
Scenario 2 – Construction of combined cycle plants (SGP Scenario)
NPP will not be built
2000 MW gas fired SGP to be put into operation by 2030
Scenario 3 – Intensive use of renewable energy sources (RES Scenario) NPP will not be built
1600 MW of SGP will be put into operation by 2030
1000 MW wind power park construction by 2025
500 MW Hydro PP construction by 2025
General assumptions Coal Power Plant 920 MW - operational in 2015
Minsk CPP-5 (320 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2011 Lukoml (2400 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2014 Bereza (1030 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2015
Wind Power Plants 50 MW - by 2015 Hydro Power Plants 100 MW – by 2015
Electricity consumption growth - 42,5 bln. kWh in 2015; 47,1 bln. kWh in 2020 and with continuation of current growth rate by 2030 (roughly 2% per year)
Structure of electricity consumption will not be changed
Renunciation of imported electricity starts from 2015
Prognosis of GHG emissions in FEC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
NPP SGP RES
mln tCO2eq
Prognosis of GHG emissions in Belarus
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
NPP SGP RES
Enhancing Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions
• Using financial mechanisms for GHG emission reduction regional trading scheme:
– Belarus - Law on Climate Protection – Ukraine – 2010 draft law "On regulation of emissions of greenhouse gases’ that establishes a
market-based methods to reduce GHG emissions in the internal trading system – Russia – pilot ‘technological platform’ – Kazakhstan - intends to conclude bilateral agreements with other countries and international
organizations (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange)
Best solution - voluntary trading scheme starting 2013, which contains
sufficient financial and nonfinancial incentives for the companies to participate.
For CIS conditions it would be wise to prepare and run the emission trading system in the pilot regions and / or sectors. These pilot initiatives should be considered as a polygon for testing approaches and training of professionals all over the country
Future climate treaty regional schemes
Directions of further research
• Implementation of carbon tax and reaction of energy system
• Most efficient actions on GHG reduction
• Low carbon strategy including different measures in supply, conversion and demand side technologies
• Regional ET scheme – price of CO2 reduced
Thank you for your attention!!!