© OECD/IEA 2018

Energy Policies of IEA Countries -In-depth Review of the Slovak Republic 2018

Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA

Central European Energy Conference, Bratislava, 19 November 2018

IEA

2© OECD/IEA 2018

Global energy context

• Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:

Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility

Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’

Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a

push

Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018

For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion

• Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of

its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate

• Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures &

how they come about.

3© OECD/IEA 2018

2000

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2001

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2002

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2003

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2004

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2005

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2006

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2007

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2008

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2009

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2010

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2011

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2012

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2013

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2014

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2015

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2016

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2017

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2018

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2019

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2020

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In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing

economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.

The new geography of global energy

2021

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2022

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2023

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2024

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2025

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2026

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2027

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2028

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2029

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2030

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2031

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2032

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2033

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2034

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2035

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2036

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2037

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2038

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2039

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2040

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2040

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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.

Global energy demand development

4© OECD/IEA 2018

Wind electricity generation in the EU more than triples to 1 100 TWh by 2040;

the rapid increase of variable forms of generation calls for new approaches to system integration

Wind to become the largest power source in the EU

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Coal Nuclear Gas Other renewables Solar PV Wind

Share of electricity generation by source in the EU, 2017-40

5© OECD/IEA 2018

40

80

120

160

China Russia India

GW

2017

The contribution of nuclear power is at risk of substantial declines in leading markets,

while large growth is coming, as China takes first position within a decade

Two directions for nuclear power globally

40

80

120

160

UnitedStates

EuropeanUnion

Japan

Retirements from 2017

2040

GW

Growth in

developing economies

Additionsto 2040

2017

Without policy change

& new project starts

6© OECD/IEA 2018

Europe's gas production declines faster than its demand, requiring a modest increase in imports;

LNG grows to cover almost a third of EU imports, improving supply diversity and security

Large increase in gas imports globally, but modest growth in the EU

-100

0

100

200

300

400

ChinaEuropean Union

Japan & Korea

India Southeast Asia

bcm

Net gas imports in 2040Net gas imports in 2017 Shares in EU gas trade, 2017

PipelinePipeline

Shares in EU gas trade, 2040

LNG

7© OECD/IEA 2018

Energy in the Slovak RepublicFindings and recommendations from the Slovak IDR

8© OECD/IEA 2018

Increased cross-border capacity has reduced dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports,

and new regional projects will help further

The Slovak Republic has significantly increased its oil and gas security

Infrastructure for natural gas

Gas interconnection

with Poland under

construction

New gas

connection

with Hungary

Reverse flow

with Ukraine

Reverse

flow in gas

pipelines

with

Austria

and CR

9© OECD/IEA 2018

Gas interconnection

with Poland under

construction

Infrastructure for oil

Increased cross-border capacity has reduced dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports,

and new regional projects will help further

The Slovak Republic has significantly increased its oil and gas security

Reverse

flow in gas

pipelines

with

Austria

and CR

Increased

capacity in

crude oil

connection

with Hungary

(Croatia)

New gas

connection

with Hungary

Reverse flow

with Ukraine

10© OECD/IEA 2018

Nuclear and renewables have replaced coal power, and with 1 GW of new nuclear planned to come

online in 2019, the Slovak Republic’s electricity supply will be further based on low-carbon sources

Low-carbon electricity covers 80% of generation, and growing

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

TWh

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels and waste

Solar and wind

Net import/export

Electricity generation by source, 1973-2017

11© OECD/IEA 2018

District heating offers an efficient & affordable option in households and industry, but more flexible

regulations will be needed to attract investment to modernise the system amid falling demand for heating

District heating systems need to adapt to lower heat demand

District heating generation by fuel, 2010-17

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (E)

PJ

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil

Biofuels and waste

Coal

12© OECD/IEA 2018

The IEA’s key recommendations for the Slovak Republic

• Update the 2014 Energy Policy and incorporate strong targets and objectives for

2030 and beyond on energy security, CO2 emissions and energy markets

• Develop a clear and transparent programme for eliminating administratively

determined end-user prices of electricity and natural gas

• Modernise district heating by introducing a new regulatory framework to

encourage investment and enhance flexibility

• Take further measures to improve energy efficiency across all sectors

• Continue to work closely with the IEA on all aspects of energy policy, including to

further strengthen energy security and improve energy market functioning

13© OECD/IEA 2018

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