energy retrofitting in scotland: skills and the supply chain€¦ · epc assessments across an...

Energy retrofitting in Scotland: skills and the supply chain

Agenda

12.00 – 12.45:Lunch

12.45 – 13.00: Welcome & introductions

13.00 – 14.00: Session 1: what skills exist and what more will be needed?

14.00 – 14.15: Break

14.15 – 15.15: Session 2: who is part of retrofitting supply chains?

15.15 – 15.45: Discussion

15.45 – 16.00: Close

Session 1:

What skills exist and what more will be needed?

Exploring the requirements of skills and the supply chain for Energy Efficient Scotland

Recommendations from the Short Life Working Group

Ian Cuthbert

Quality, Skills & Consumer Protection

Short Life Working Group

Recommendations

Quality Skills & Capacity

Consumer Protection

Procurement Non-Domestic

Recommendations

QUALITY• Need to define what success looks like.

• Quality assurance criteria needs to be developed linked to new Quality Mark.

• Any criteria should be fair, proportionate and not cost prohibitive to SMEs.

• A new designer role should be considered.

• Independent inspections must be carried out

Recommendations

SKILLS AND CAPACITY• Suppliers must meet appropriate skills and

competency requirements with a skills matrix developed for the Programme.

• A mobilisation plan for developing skills should be developed and communicated to suppliers.

• The Programme should be well advertised to suppliers.

Recommendations

CONSUMER PROTECTION• There should be a clear, simple well defined

complaints process.

• There should be data sharing between key agencies.

• There should be an awareness raising campaign about the Programme.

Recommendations

PROCUREMENT• Scottish Government should work with partner

organisations to bolster existing guidance for SMEs.

• Scottish Government should consider developing guidance for buyers including local authorities.

Recommendations

NON-DOMESTIC• Work to identify improvement targets for non-

domestic buildings should be fed into ongoing supply chain activity.

• Examine the need for qualification and skill requirements for installers working on non-domestic buildings.

Consistency and quality of EPC ratings and future energy assessment

Dr David JenkinsUrban Energy Research Group

School of Energy, Geosciences, Infrastructure and Society,

Heriot-Watt University

An assessment of consistency� The “Performance Gap” of energy

assessments is well-documented� Modelled energy demand is rarely similar to

energy bills of buildings� Consistency is often assumed within a

standardised framework� But is that true?� And what happens when we ask for “more” of that

assessment (and assessors)?

“Mystery Shopper” exercise� Commissioned by Department of Energy and

Climate Change (DECC) ~2014� What happens when the same properties are

assessed by different assessors?� Householders sign up to receive multiple energy

assessments from different assessors� Investigate consistency of Green Deal (GD) and

EPC assessments across an identified sample� Indicate reasons for any identified variability by

looking at three stages of assessment

How GD assessments work(ed)� Energy Performance Certificate

� An assessor generates results of a standardised EPC for a “typical” occupancy (RdSAP model)

� Green Deal Occupancy Assessment� Results altered to account for specific occupancy

of that dwelling� Number of people� Showers/baths/fridges/freezers� Use of energy billing information

� Recommendations are provided following both analyses

Sample size� A relatively small sample of households took

part� Part of a slightly larger sample (48) involved in a

“customer journey” survey� 29 households assessed by four registered GD

assessors� A fifth assessment was carried out by an

independent assessor (CADS) as part of the project team

� Results must be placed in context of sample size� But 145 assessments still provided a revealing picture...

Data sources� Assessments registered on central GD

Oversight and Registration Body database, including:� EPC inputs and results � Occupancy Assessment (OA) inputs and outputs� Summed post-OA improvements

� Mystery Shopper questionnaires

Respondents satisfied...

Respondents satisfied...usually....

“He [the assessor] rushed through the assessment. He

started drilling holes in my outside wall without telling me he

was going to do that or why. The only recommendation he

made was the loft insulation, despite my boiler being 15 years

old and I did not have cavity wall insulation or energy saving

bulbs.”

-

Quote from householder

Format of quantitative results

0

MaximumValue

Minimum Value

MedianValue

CADsValue

DCBA

E

F

G

Variations in EPC results

Average range = 11.1ratings points

Nearly two thirds of households showed variation across two or more energy bands

Variations in EPC space heatingAverage range = £355/year

Older buildings more variable?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12 21 6 18 20 23 3 7 19 8 26 14 15 25 10 17 28 13 4 5 16 27 9 11 1 22 24 29 2

RangeofEPC

ratin

gs

DwellingID

Pre-1900

1900-1929

1930-1949

1950-1966

1967-1975

1976

-198

2 1983

-199

019

96-200

2

Occupancy Assessment – thermostat temperature

Mean range = 2.1°C

13 dwellings had a difference of 3°C or more

Other OA inputs – lack of agreement?

Num

ber o

f dw

ellin

gs w

here

all

asse

ssor

s ag

reed

Further signs of assessor interpretation becoming more of a factor

Are these important compared to other factors?

Crucial

Differences in type of measure (GD)

Improvements A1 A2 A3 A4 CADS

Loft insulationFloor insulation

Ground source heat pumpSolar water heating

Hot water cylinder insulation

Door insulationSolar PV

0

1

2

3

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

No.o

fassessorswho

asked

forb

ills

DwellingID

Source of disagreements – did they ask for energy bill data?

In 21 of the 116 assessments, bills were not asked for

Questions from study� Did errors occur due to lack of knowledge

rather than guidance?� Is the problem the methodology or those applying

the methodology?� Green Deal/OA required assessors to make

even greater level of judgement for inputs� Differences between OA and EPC approach might

have caused confusion� What level of building modelling expertise should

be required for this judgement?

� Assessor asked for depth of LI and CWI in a stone-walled house with no loft

� DG and SWI recommended for a house with DG and SWI already present

� Thermostats recorded in homes without thermostats� One assessor refused to use energy bill data provided

as it was “online”� Householder told that a technology was not possible

(e.g. SWI) but this was then included in the report� Building orientation repeatedly incorrect

Evidence of clear errors and mistakes....

What might we conclude?� Did GD push this form of modelling too far?

� Focussed on bill predictions rather than “energy compliance”

� This form of “steady-state” model has very little empirical validation even for standard EPCs

� More general problems with energy modelling are magnified by GD – but perhaps already existed?

� Assessors can become accredited after 7-9 days training� Is this sufficient? Does it explain variation in

quality/knowledge of assessors in the sample?

� A common (and intuitive) argument:� Retrofits must be justified by projected future

energy savings� Energy savings have to be tailored to households

(i.e. reflecting real behaviour)� Energy assessments (e.g. RdSAP) must account

for occupancy parameters� This will provide more accurate energy bill

estimations and more reliable savings projections for the occupant

Why is this still important?

Do they?

But we want to upgrade our building stock regardless of who ends up living there?

Shouldn’t we firstly judge whether those models are suitable for using those “new” inputs?

There is very little evidence of this – yet we might give the households a false impression of this

The role of EPC assessments for retrofit� What are we trying to promote and do we need

EPCs to do that?� e.g. loft insulation can be recommended on the

back of ~3 questions� What measures require more robust modelling?

� But which of these are not reliably modelled by current compliance modelling?

� What skills do we need for all of the above?� “Tailored” does not mean more accurate, and this

is not likely to be understood by a householder

Understanding Local Supply Chains

Louise Cox

Economic Development

Scottish Borders Council

Welcome to Scottish Borders Council

Key Energy Issues – large area, very rural • Housing stock – largest town 15,000 residents, older

properties, stone built, significant off-gas, 31% fuel poverty, huge need for very costly upgrades

• Business premises very varied – some modern purpose built, lots of small workshops, town centre retail, increasing home based businesses

• Local home insulation programme – HEEPS:ABS across the Scottish Borders

• No ability to engage with local contractors • No business need to increase skills/diversify – unclear,

limited market

• Feed-in Tariff – focus on PV/biomass, unclear limited market

scotborders.gov.uk


Early Actions 2006 - Scottish Borders Sustainable Energy Association/Borders Energy Agency • Network of local energy businesses and public bodies

• Engagement and awareness of opportunities

• Open events inc. annual conference

• Identification of issues/barriers and lobbying

www.scotborders.gov.uk


Early Actions Scottish Borders Low Carbon Economic Strategy – ‘To develop a

workforce equipped with low carbon skills and awareness’

• Assess Energy Skills Gap - Skills Development Scotland/Borders College

• Business engagement – suppliers, installation & maintenance

• Registered Social Landlords – key clients, EESSH targets

• Identify training need - Low Carbon Skills Fund/ Individual Learning Accounts

www.scotborders.gov.uk


Peebles Scotland's Energy Efficiency Strategy Pilot –Non-domestic support • Awareness and Engagement focus - domestic and non-

domestic properties

• Business Referrals to Resource Efficient Scotland

• Supply Chain study – Nautilus consultants – individual interviews with construction sector businesses in Peebles, compiled business listing, survey and workshop

• Key findings – limited engagement in energy efficiency works, word of mouth recommendations, restricted up take of training

scotborders.gov.uk


Challenges and Barriers

• Communication is primarily word of mouth for local trades

• Clients demand for energy efficiency is not clear

• Lack of scale, time and finance to invest in energy efficiency

• Red tape and administrative burden are a disincentive

• Lack of information on energy efficiency for local small businesses

• Energy efficiency is part of what tradespeople do, and is not the specific focus

• Impractical building standard regulations concerning energy efficiency for older buildings

scotborders.gov.uk

Welcome to Scottish Borders CouncilRecommendations

• Minimise red tape and administrative burden for small businesses

- streamline procurement procedures - reduce administrative burden of frameworks- Green Deal and Constructionline review

• Strengthening capacity of the local businesses- improve communications/relationships - support access to training/upskilling - identify business devt. needs for construction- support for administration & accreditation

• Specify the scope of the market for energy efficiency upgrades

- Affordable Warmth Strategy- EESSH, PRS, Self-funded

scotborders.gov.uk


Recommendations

• Better information and finance for end users - strengthen and simplify the messages- increase understanding of benefits - improve awareness of routes and costs- ease access to support – local trades - ‘Trusted Traders’ schemes

• Specific messages for consumer groups - identify key drivers for different groups- engage through local & social networks - embed energy issues in wider service delivery - Changeworks in Peebles pilot findings

scotborders.gov.uk

Session 2:

Who is part of retrofitting supply chains?

NetworkBrokerageinSupplyChains

Implicationsofoutsourcingforinnovativeenergyretrofit

Henry Myers & Dr Faye WadeHeat and the City Team, University of

Edinburgh

EnergyEfficientScotland• LathamandEganreports:needtodevelop

supplychainintegrationandinnovation

• Supplier-sidecomplexity:• whole-houseapproachesrequirecooperationof

specialists• unclearaboutthepresenceofskillsand

expertiseinmarkettodeliverenergyefficienttechnologiesinolderbuildings

• partneringstrategiesstillemerging

• Client-sidecomplexity:• residentialandnon-residential• multi-ownershipbuildings• historicallylistedstock;thirdsectorinvolvement• diversedemandsandinterests

EnergyEfficientScotland:supplychainchallenges

• Uncertaintyandcomplexity inthesupplychaincanmeanunforeseenrisksandcosts

– Hiddentransactioncostscanmakeupto30%totalcostsinEnergyEfficientRetrofittingprojects(Mooreetal,2018)

– Complexitycanaccountfor25%ofmanufacturingexpenditures(Aelker etal.,2013)– Hiddenrisks/costsdifficulttomanagethroughcontractualmechanisms– Certainactorsbearhigherriskofincurringsuchcosts(NetworkBrokers,ProjectLeads,

SMEs)

• Suchrisks/costsmaydiscourageSMEsfromparticipating inEnergyEfficientScotland

• SocialCapital helpsmitigatetheriskofhiddencosts.

Method:SocialNetworkAnalysis(SNA)

• SocialCapital– Thecapacityforcooperation,power,&influenceinsocialnetworks– Formedthrough iterativecommunication,sharedvaluesandgoals,and

trust

• SocialNetworkAnalysis(SNA) isatoolforanalysingsocialcapitalbymeasuringtherelationshipsandstructureofanetwork

• Constructionsupplychainsaretemporarynetworks– Differenttypesofties:contracts;communication;sharedinterest;trust– Differenttypes ofactors:Contractors,clients,consultants,government– Highinterdependence: ineffectivecooperationmayaffectwholenetwork– Howdoeseffectivecommunicationandcoordinationoccur? Brokers!

SupplyChainBrokerage

• DefinitionofBrokers:

– Position:Actorsthatconnectotherwiseunconnectedactorsinanetwork– Role:Crucialforfacilitatinginformationexchangeandcoordination

• Theirroleispronouncedwhenmediatingbetweendifferentgroups,suchaspublic,private,&thirdsectororganisationsorclientsandcontractors.Theyactas“translators”tomakedifferentinterestsandmeaningsmutuallyintelligible.

– Theybearsignificantriskofincurringtransactioncosts.Onthefrontlineofconflicts.

• SupplyChainBrokerscomeindifferentforms(GouldandFernandez,1989):

• WedonotknowtheimpactthatBrokershaveonsupplychainsforenergyefficientretrofitting– Helpful?Facilitatingcommunication,coordination,innovation,andintegration?– Harmful?Bottleneckingandcontrollingcommunication,engaginginopportunisticbehaviour?

Method:DataCollection

• Semi-structuredinterviews:– Snowballsamplingapproachtounderstandshapeofnetwork

• Emergentthemesandquestions:– Howdodifferenttypesofcommunicationbrokerageresultinexperiencesoftrustandsocialcapital?– Howdo thesedifferentexperiencesofsocialcapitalaffecttransactioncostrisksandcoordination?

• Interviewscodedand“translated”intoSNAmeasures:– 3typesofties:Contracts;Communication;Trust;– NetworkDensity:Levelofsupplychaincohesion/fracturing– BetweennessCentrality(allties):Measuresbrokeringactivity– DegreeCentrality(Trust):Whoismosttrustworthy

CommunicationNetwork

Actor Betweenness

ProjectLead 69.357

GrantAdministrator 6.458

Client 5.306Communication Betweenness = Brokerage

TrustNetwork

Trust = Social Capital

Actor TrustCentrality

ProjectLead 9

Client 1

Grant Administrator 2

NetworkExperiences• “[ProjectLead]I’mentirelycomfortablewith.[TheGrantAdministrator]Irecognisethey’vegot,

it’sallaboutwhatpeople’sinterestis.Irecognisethey’vegotavestedinterestincertainaspectsofthis.Theirpriorityisnotus….SoitjustgoesbacktowhatIwassayingearlier,Ithink[ProjectLead]gotsuchahugestakeinthisintermsoffuturebusinessandpotentialbadreputationifitdoesn’tgowellsoIcouldrelaxandI’mconfident….[TheGrantAdministrator]isadifferentkindofbeastandsoithastobetreateddifferently.soI’mabitlesscomfortablewiththem…”(TheClient)

• “[theGrantAdministrator]holdsthebudgetsoforsomereasonwe’veneverbeentoldwhatitis…We’veneverseenorwe’veneverbeeninvolvedinanydiscussionswithScottishGovernmentor[LocalAuthority]…buttheyalwayskindofkept[programspecifics]tothemselvesandwehaven’tseentheiroriginalfundingapplicationso…sometimeswe’lltakethingsoutoftheprojectfromafundingpointofviewor[Client]interestpointofview…butthenitwasfedbackthatactuallythatwaspartoftheoriginalfundingapplicationandsoourabilitytodomuchto…managethatwas[affected],”(ProjectLead)

Discussion:BrokerageandSocialCapital

• Whenbrokersshareriskandhavealignedinterestswithotheractors,theserelationshipsgiverisetotrust,confidence,andmutualunderstanding.Theseformssocialcapitalhaveknock-oneffectsforretrofittingsupplychains.

• Whenbrokersdonotshareinrisk(don’thaveskininthegame)orhaveunalignedinterests,theycandeterioratetrust,generatesignificanttransactioncosts,reducenetworkperformance,anddiscouragerisk-averseSMEsfromenteringtheenergyefficientretrofittingmarket.

• Greatertransparencyincommunicationplaysanimportantroleinbuildingsocialcapitalandtransformingbrokerswhopreventsupplychaincohesionintobrokerswhofacilitateit.

• Whenprocuringsupplychain,attentionshouldbepaidtotheeffectthatanincreasednumberofclient-sidestakeholdershasonthelevelofuncertaintyandriskinaproject.Theimportanceoffindingbrokerswhohaveavestedinterestinaprojectandwhocancommunicateeffectivelywithbothindustryorganisationsandclientsshouldnotbeoverlooked.

Developingatrustedtraderlisttoengageprivateowners&businessesinretrofit.

DiarmidTurnbull

20th June2019

Contents

Ø BackgroundØ EnergyAgencyØ EESPilotProgramme

Ø DevelopmentofAccreditedInstallerListØ Research,vetting&marketing

Ø Resultssofar

Ø Barriersandchallengesfaced

Ø Lessonslearned&futuredevelopment

The Energy Agency

Ø Registeredenergyefficiencycharity.

Ø OperateacrosstheSouthWestScotland.

Ø Aimtoreduceenergyconsumptionandpromotesustainabilitytoreducecarbonemissions.Ø Freeandimpartialadvicetohouseholders, businesses, communitygroups.Ø EnergyEfficiency, renewabletechnology, sustainabletransport.

LocalAuthorityPartnership

Ø ManageScottishGovernment-fundedprogrammes&contracts.Ø HomeEnergyScotland.Ø LocalAuthority partnership.

Ø HEEPSABSØ ManageonbehalfofSouthAyrshire,EastAyrshireandDumfries&Galloway

councils.Ø Solidwallinsulation installedinover6000hard-to-treatproperties.Ø Skill&experienceofsupplychainhasamajorimpactonsuccess.

EESPilotOverview

Ø ManagementoftwoEESpilotprogrammes:Ø EastAyrshireandDumfries&Galloway.Ø SouthAyrshire.

Ø AimsofEESpilotprogrammes:Ø Testappetitewithinself-funding sectortoinvestinenergyefficiency.Ø Provideabespoke ‘handholding’ adviceserviceinpartnership withHES&RES.Ø Developanaccreditedinstallerslistforhouseholders/SMEs.

EESJourney

IdentifyTarget

Engagement

Pre-InstallEPC

AdviceVisit

HESCall

PostEPC

PostInstallVisit

PurposeofAccreditedInstallerNetwork

Ø Providealevelofqualityassuranceandconsumerprotection.Ø Throughdelivering anetworkof trustedandreliableinstallers.

Ø Markethasbeenbadlyaffectedbycoldcalling,misinformation andpoorworkmanship.Ø Thereforenetworkshould givehouseholders confidencewhenselectinganinstaller.

Ø Provideamatrixallowinghouseholdertoselectaninstallerbasedonpersonalrequirements.Ø Pilotprogramme– testandevaluatewhattypesofinstallersarepopular–

smalllocalserviceorlargewell-knownbrand.Ø Displayedasasearchtool– allowhouseholder tosearchbasedontheir

personalrequirements.

Accreditations

Ø Firstlevelofqualityassurance– ensurecontractorisaccredited/qualified tocarryoutwork.

Ø Challenge:Largenumberofdifferentaccreditationandtradebodies.Ø Eachprovidingvaryinglevelsofvetting&consumerprotection.Ø E.g GasSafe legal requirement,othersbeneficial butnotessential.

Ø Requirement: Installerrequiredtoholdatleastonerelevantaccreditation.

Ø Followingaccreditationsessential:Ø Gascondensingboiler– GasSafe.Ø Complexinsulationmeasure– PAS2030:17.Ø Renewable technology– MicrogenerationCertification Scheme.Ø CloselyalignedwithHEEPSloaninstallercriteria.

Ø Mostbodieshavecomplaintsprocedureorarbitrationservicefordisputes.

InstallerResearch

Ø ResearchedInstallersthroughfollowingchannels:Ø Accreditationwebsites.Ø Tradebodymemberships.Ø Existinginstallerrelationships.

Ø Vetting:Ø Around300AccreditedInstallersscoped– then filteredbycustomerreviews.Ø Installermusthave90%positivereviewstobeconsidered.Ø Holdatleast3customerreviewsleftacrossdifferent reviewsites.

Ø AccreditationSitesØ TradebodymembershipsØ Existinginstallerrelationships

Accreditation SourcedFrom Comments ReviewSitescheckedGasSafe,TrustMark GasSafe Largecompany,mainlypositivereviews. GooglereviewsGasSafe,Trustedtrader, OFTEC,SNIPEF GasSafe Lotsofpositiveratings- trusted trader Reference line,facebook.GasSafe GasSafe Mainlynegativereviews Yell,googlereviewsGasSafe GasSafe MixedReviews Yell,GoogleGasSafe,SNIPEF,OFTEC,Trusted Trader TrustedTrader Mainlypositive,trusted trader Referenceline, yellGasSafe GasSafe Verypositivereviews- including forinstalls Boiler guide,mybuilder, facebookGasSafe GasSafe Positivereviews Facebook,googlereviewGasSafe GasSfe Only1Reviewbutpositive. YellGasSafe GasSafe Only2Reviewsbutpostitive GoogleGasSafe,SNIPEF,OFTEC,Trusted Trader GasSafe Excellent reviews. Referenceline, Google,YellGasSafe,Trusted Trader GasSafe Workswith Anne- positivereviews,trusted trader. Reference line,trust pilot, googlereviews.GasSafe,OFTEC,Trusted Trader TrustedTrader Workswith Anne- Positivereviews,trusted trader. Reference line,Yell

GasSafe,Trusted Trader TrustedTraderQuiteabitofworkwithAnne,sherates,positivereviews,trusted trader. Facebook,Yell,referenceline

Vetting- TradingStandards

Ø Potentialfurthervettingmethodsofapplicants:Ø Financialhistory,consumercomplaints, interviews.

Ø Barriers:Ø Resource&timetoinvestigateeachinstaller.Ø Accesstodatabase&recordstocarryoutthislevelofvetting.Ø Complexapplicationprocesscouldbeprohibitive toqualityinstallers.

Ø TradingStandards:Ø Looked toenlistthehelpofTradingStandards– haveexperienceofcarrying

outthislevelofvettingandhaveaccesstorecords.Ø TradingStandardsmanageTrustedTradersSchemeineachLocalAuthority–

verylimitednumberofenergyefficientinstallersregisteredasTrustedTraders.Ø Sharedgoals– consumerprotection,promotion ofreputabletraders.

Vetting- TradingStandards

Ø Proposal:WorkinpartnershipwithTradingStandards.Ø TradingStandardsassistwithvettingprocessandwewouldcrosspromote

installerstoboosttheirnumbers.

Ø Issues:Ø AdditionaltimeandpressureonTradingStandardsresources.Ø TrustedTradersSchemeinEast/SouthAyrshirehadpaidmembership– couldcause

dissatisfactionwithexistingtradersasournetworkisfree.

Ø Workaround:Ø EncourageapplicantstoAccreditedInstallerlisttomakeaseparateapplicationto

TrustedTradersscheme.Ø Workedwell inD&Gwherenomembershipfee, lesssuccessful inotherLA’swherethereisafee.

Ø VettinginabsenceofTradingStandards:Ø Publicliabilityinsurancechecks,tradingforatleast6months&CompanyHouse

checkonfinancialinformation.

MarketingtoInstaller

Ø Promotedbenefits– whywouldinstallerswanttojoin:Ø Promote reputablebrandimage&boostcompanyprofile.Ø Specialisedandspecifictoenergyefficiencymeasures.Ø Opportunity toberetainedforfutureprogrammes.

Ø BarriersØ Highqualityinstallersareoftenalreadyverybusyanddon’t alwayshaveneed

foradditionalworks.Ø Installersusedtoworkingonlarge‘wholestreet’projectslessinterestedin

quoting forindividual jobs.

PresentingtoHouseholder

ResultssoFar

Ø 44installersregisteredforAccreditedInstallernetworksofar.Ø 24HeatingEngineers,16InsulationInstallers,2RenewablesTechnology

Installers,2EfficientGlazingInstallers.Ø Around20%ofinstallersinvitedtoapplymadeanapplication.

Ø 27householdersrequestedaccesstoAccreditedInstallerNetworkØ 65%ofhouseholders whohavereceivedadvicevisithaveaccessednetwork.

Ø 20%ofregisteredinstallersarenowmembersofTrustedTradersSchemesandhavebeenvettedbyTradingStandards.

Barriers&Challenges

Ø Resourceandexperiencerequiredtocarryoutrelevantvetting.

Ø Qualitycontrolatinstallationstage:Ø Contractbetweenhouseholder andinstaller.Ø InstallationstagenotmanageddirectlybyLocalAuthority ormanagingagentinsamewayasHEEPSABS.

ØMeasurespecific:Ø Lessinterestfrominstallersofcertainmeasurestojoinscheme.

Ø 24HeatingEngineersregisteredbutonly2renewablesandglazinginstallersregistered.Ø Lackoflocalinstallerswhoholdaccreditationtoinstallcertainmeasures:

Ø e.g.mostinstallerswhoholdPAS2030:17 forcertaininsulationmeasuresarebasedinthecentralbelt.

Lessons&ThoughtsforFuture

Ø Possibilityofastandardisedvettingprocess:Ø RelationshipwithTradingStandardsatnationallevel?

Ø QualityvsChoice:Ø Thoroughvettingprocesstoensurequalitywithoutbeingexcessive/timeconsumingandprohibitivetoapplicants.

Ø Experiencehasbeenpositive:Ø Installersandhouseholdersarereceptiveandenthusiastic.Ø Bodeswellfordevelopmentoffutureenergyefficientsupplychains.

DrKeithBakerBuiltEnvironmentAssetManagement(BEAM)Centre,GlasgowCaledonianUniversity,TheEnergyPovertyResearchinitiative,&CommonWeal

T.+44(0)7884125540E.keith.baker@gcu.ac.ukW.www.energypovertyresearch.orgTwitter:@Stumpysheep

EnergyPerformanceCertificates:AnAlternativeApproach

Outline

• Averybriefintroduction totheEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective

• What’swrongwithusingEnergyPerformanceCertificates?

• Usingrealdata

• AnalternativeEnergyPerformanceCertificate

• Rethinkingfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem

• Furtherreadingonfuelpovertyandsupplychains

AverybriefintroductiontotheimplementationoftheEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective(EPBD)

• EPBDrequiresEPCstobeproducedforallnewbuildingsandthosebeingsoldorrented,asofAugust2007

• IntheUK,EPCsareproducedusingtheBREDEM12modelfordwellingsandtheSBEMmodelfornon-domesticbuildingshowever,thisisadevolved responsibility,soScotlandcouldchoosetoadoptanalternativeapproach

• TheScottishGovernment’sOperatingFrameworkrequiresonly2%ofdomesticEPCstobesampled,andtheir‘validity’ischeckedagainstthe(modelled)SAPrating,notactual(measured)energyperformance

KeyquotesfromtheEPBD“Theprospectivebuyerandtenantofabuildingorbuildingunitshould, intheenergyperformancecertificate,begivencorrect information abouttheenergyperformanceofthebuilding andpracticaladviceonimproving suchperformance.”

“Theenergyperformanceofabuildingshallbedeterminedonthebasisofthecalculatedoractualannualenergy thatisconsumed inordertomeetthedifferentneedsassociatedwith itstypicaluse”

“Whensettingenergyperformancerequirements fortechnical buildingsystems,MemberStatesshoulduse,whereavailableandappropriate,harmonised instruments,”

What’swrongwithusingEPCs?

“ThecurrentEPCprocesswasdesigned toproducean

assetratingtocomplywiththerequirementsoftheEPBD.

Whatmayhavebeensufficientasageneralmeasureof

energyperformance,usingasimplifiedenergymodeland

anAtoGbandingmaynotbeappropriate ifthesame

systemisutilisedtoregulatecompliancewithenergy

efficiencystandards inexistingbuildings”.

AlembicResearch,EnergyActionScotland,&DrPatrickWaterfield,2019.AReviewofDomesticandNon-DomesticEnergyPerformanceCertificatesinScotland.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.

ButusingEnergyPerformanceCertificatestodrive

mandatoryimprovementstodwellingsisakey

partoftheScottishGovernment’sEnergy

EfficiencyStrategy,whichaimstoeliminate

energyinefficiencyasadriverforfuelpoverty,so

surelytheymustbeareasonablemeasureof

success?

Sorry….

Real dataversusEnergyPerformanceCertificates

“FutureFit hasfoundthatSAPisnotanaccuratemodellingtoolforexistinghomes”

Studybasedon150homesacrossEngland,meteredenergydataandmonitoredinternalandexternaltemperatures,preandpost-intervention.

Source: JonesLangLaSalle,2012.ATaleofTwoBuildings:AreEPCsatrueindicatorofenergyefficiency?.BetterBuildingsPartnership.

It’sonlyamodel!!!!

Modelsarebuiltonassumptions

“Realdatamayalsoenablemoreextensive

validity-testingofsomekeyassumptions made

inestimations offuelpovertyprevalencewhich

derivefromtheUK’sapplicationofthe

BREDEMmodel.”

Bramley,G.,Fitzpatrick,S.,Liddell,C.,&Webb,J.,2017.AnewdefinitionoffuelpovertyinScotland:Areviewofrecentevidence.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.

Modelsareinsensitive“WhileakeystrengthofBoardman’sdefinition isitsrootedness in

robustevidencefrombuildingscience,anunintendedconsequence is

thatthedefinition isinsensitive tothehumanrealitiesofbeingfuel

poor,whicharediverseinbothoriginandsolution (Mould&Baker,

2017a).Consequently,Scottish discourse relatedtoenergy

vulnerability focusesonalternativeconcepts suchasexposuretofuel

poverty,sensitivity toitsimpacts,andahousehold’sadaptive

capacitiesforcopingwith it(e.g.MouldandBaker,2017b).”

Bramley,G.,Fitzpatrick,S.,Liddell,C.,&Webb,J.,2017.AnewdefinitionoffuelpovertyinScotland:Areviewofrecentevidence.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.

Usingrealdata

• Todate,8studiesofsocio-economicinfluencesonhouseholdenergyconsumption/expenditureusingreal datahavebeenconductedintheUK

• Weclaimthefirst(LeicesterandSheffield), thefirstinScotland(theRenfrewshirestudy),andthefirsttolookspecificallyattheimpactoftheurban/ruraldivide(ProiseactSpéird).

• Themethodologies forallthreestudiesweredeliberatelydesigned toavoidtheneedforadditionaldatacollectionbeyond thatalreadyavailabletocentralandlocalgovernment, and(whereverpossible) toeliminatetheuseofassumptionsandproxydata.

• Makinggreateruseofrealdataisoneoftherecommendationsmadeinthe2017academicpanelreviewofthefuelpovertydefinition commissionedbytheScottishGovernment.Sofar,ithasbeenrejected.

Whatdoesreal datatellus?

Totalfloorareaisastrongpredictorofenergyconsumption

Datafor154householdsacrossthreegroupsofhomogenous(enough)dwellings inLeicester andSheffield.Thethreeclustersarestatistically significantgroupsofhigh,mediumandlowenergyusers(note:inreverse order).InthisstudyTFA(evengroupedto20%bands)wasfoundtoexplain~49%ofthevariationinenergyconsumption.

Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determiningindicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment(IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK.

321

ElecAndGasClusters

20

15

10

5

0

Count

54321

TotFloorArea (Banded)


Builtformisapoor(ish)predictorofenergyconsumption

Datafor154householdsacrossthreegroupsofhomogenous(enough)dwellings inLeicester andSheffield.Thethreeclustersarestatistically significantgroupsofhigh,mediumandlowenergyusers.

Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determiningindicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment(IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK.

321

ElecAndGasClusters

25

20

15

10

5

0

Cou

nt

Bar Chart

End-terrace with passageway

End-terrace

Mid-terrace with passageway

Mid-terraceSemi-detachedDetachedHouse type


Thenumberofbedroomsisastrongpredictorofenergyconsumption- ?

Forthosesameclusterstherewasastrongcorrelationbetween thenumberofbedroomsandhouseholdenergyconsumption– oratleastthat’swhatwethoughtbackin2007.

Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determining indicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment (IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester, UK.


Thenumberofbedroomsisapoor predictorofenergyconsumption- ?

ProiseactSpéird- Datafortotalannualenergycosts(alluses)for515householdsinheterogeneousdwellings intheOrkneyIsles(mixedfuel– includesmainsgas,mainelectricity, oil,LPG,coal,biomass,andsomemicro-renewables).

Interjection!

Butthenumberofbedroomsisonlyaproxyforoccupancy,andtheOrkneyhouseholdsarehighlyheterogeneous,soifweuseactualoccupancyandnormalisealoadofthevariablesthecorrelationwillbestronger,right?

Sorryagain….


Occupancy isapoor(ish)predictorofenergyconsumption

Althoughcommonlyassumedtobeastrongpredictorofhouseholdenergyconsumption,ananalysisofrealheatingcostdataforahighlyhomogeneousgroupofdwellings illustrates thedangersofassumingcorrelation meanscausation.

ProiseactSpéird- Dataformeanannualheating(only)fuelcostsfor128householdsinhighlyhomogeneousdwellingsnearPortree,Skye(metereddata,biomassDHS).


Ruralandislandhouseholdsnotonlyspendsignificantlymore onenergyforheating,butthedistributions ofexpenditureacrosstheurban-ruraldividearedifferenttoo

ProiseactSpéird– Dataonheatingenergyexpenditure for1,015householdsacrossAberdeenshire,ArgyllandBute,Lochaber,theOrkneyIsles,RenfrewshireandSkye

Buildingscientistshavebeentellinggovernmentsaboutthelimitationsofenergymodelsfordecades….

Forexample….AffinitySutton,2013.FutureFit:FinalReportPart2.AffinitySuttonJuly2013.Availableat:http://www.affinitysutton.com/media/364652/futurefit-quick-links-PDF-1.pdfBaker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0204-2Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8EBaker,K.J.,2017.RenewableHeat:Theperfectstorm?In:Wood,G.,&Baker,K.J.(eds),2017.ACriticalReviewofScottishRenewableandLowCarbonEnergyPolicy.PalgraveMacmillan,Aug2017.Baker,K.J.,Emmanuel,R.,&Phillipson,M.,2012.SupportforRPP2-HousingFutures.ReportforClimateXChangeScotland.Availableat:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/resource/0038/00389071.pdfBakerK.J.,&RylattM.,2008.ImprovingthepredictionofUKdomesticenergydemandusingannualconsumptiondata.AppliedEnergy,85,pp475-482.Beckmann,K.,&Roaf.,S.,2013.WorkshopReport:ClimateResiliencefortheScottishBuiltEnvironment.ClimateXChangeScotland.Availableat:http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/files/6113/7356/2210/CXC_Built_Env_EnablEnv_WorkshopRecommendationsReport.pdfBruhns H,SteadmanP,HerringH.2000.Adatabaseformodellingenergyuseinthenon-domesticbuildingstockofEnglandandWales.AppliedEnergy,66,pp.277-297.CAR,2009,ModellingGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromScottishHousing:FinalReport.CambridgeArchitecturalResearchreportfortheScottishGovernment.Availableat:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/10/08143041/0CFS,2012.ConsumerFocusScotland’sresponsetotheScottishGovernmentBuildingStandardsDivisionConsultationson:Section63:EnergyPerformanceofNon-DomesticBuildings;andEnergyPerformanceofBuildingDirective–Recast.ConsumerFocusScotland.Availableat:http://www.consumerfocus.org.uk/scotland/files/2012/01/Consumer-Focus-Scotland-response-to-SG-Building-Stds-Consultations.pdf

Forexample….IMechE,2011.ScottishEnergy2020?InstitutionofMechanicalEngineers,London,UK.Availableat:http://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/2011-press-releases/IMechE_Scottish_Energy_Report.pdf?sfvrsn=0Jenkins,D.,Simpson,S.,&Peacock,A.,2017.InvestigatingtheconsistencyandqualityofEPCratingsandassessments.Energy,Vol.138,1November2017,pp.480-489.Kelly,S.,Crawford-Brown,D.,Pollitt,M.G.,2012.BuildingperformanceevaluationandcertificationintheUK:IsSAPfitforpurpose?RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews,Vol.16,Issue9,December2012,pp.6861-6878.KellyS.2011.Dohomesthataremoreenergyefficientconsumelessenergy?:AstructuralequationmodeloftheEnglishresidentialsector,Energy,36,pp.5610-5620SandersC,PhillipsonM.2006.ReviewofDifferencesbetweenMeasuredandTheoreticalEnergySavingsforInsulationMeasures.PublishedbyDEFRA,availableat:http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/supporting%20consumers/saving_energy/analysis/insulationmeasures-review.pdfUKGBC,2010.Zero-CarbonNon-DomesticBuildings.UKGreenBuildingCouncil,March2010.Watts,C.,Jentsch,M.F.,&James,P.A.B.,2011.ImplicationsofEnergyPerformanceCertificatesfortheUKdomesticbuildingstock– FeedbackfromaSouthamptonhomeownersurvey.CIBSETechnicalSymposium,DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK– 6thand7thSeptember2011.Wright,A.,2008.Whatistherelationshipbetweenbuiltformandenergyuseindwellings?EnergyPolicy,Vol.36,Issue12,December2008,pp.4544-4547.

Arewehavingfunyet?

Realdata– greatfunforresearchers,butnotsomuchfunforpolicymakers

SowhatcanwedoaboutEPCs?

• Businessasusual- carryonbelievinginthevalidityofEPCsintheircurrentform,failthefuelpoor,andgetreadyforlegalactionwhenmandatoryupgradingisbroughtin(asitshouldbe)

• Keeppluggingawayatimprovingtheexistingmodelling– andwatchthosecostssteadilyaddupwhilstgettingonlyincrementallyclosertowhatrealdatacantellustoday

• DevelopbespokeScottishdomesticandnon-domesticbuildingmodels– atahuge(prohibitive)costtothepublicpurse

• Ormaybeit’stimetorethinktheapproach?

Inlate2018wepublishedafullcritiqueofEPCsandourproposalsforanalternativeapproachthatisbetteralignedwiththerequirementsoftheEU’sEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective.

See:https://commonweal.scot/library/energy-performance-certificates-an-alternative-approach/

AnAlternativeDomesticEPC

• ItisentirelypossibletoconstructanalternativeEPCthatmeetstheboththerequirementsandtheintentionsoftheEPBDwithoutresortingtomodelleddataontheenergyconsumptionofanexistingbuilding.

• Foradomesticdwellingthiswouldreplacethismodelleddatawithmeasuredenergyconsumption(and,notingthetariff,cost)asanannualfigure,andpersquaremetre,andbeforthepreviousyearasofthedateoftheinspectionunlessthepropertyhasbeenvoidforasignificantperiodoftime.ThiswouldmeettheEPBDcriterionfor‘correctinformation’.

• Inordertobe‘practical’andreflect‘typicaluse’someadditional,andsuitablyanonymised,contextualinformationonthepreviousoccupantswouldbeaddedasregardstheirhouseholdtypeandoccupancyregime,sufficientforapotentialbuyerortenanttorelatethesetotheirowncircumstances,andthereforeinferhowmuchtheirownenergyusemaydiffer.(Inreality,asmanybuyersandtenantsalreadymeetthepreviousoccupantsthismerelyformalisesanotherwisecommoninformalexchangeofinformation.)


• Theproliferationofsmarttechnologiesshouldultimatelymeaninternaltemperatureswillbemonitoredbyheatingandcoolingsystems,andthedatareportedaspartofanEPC.However,inthemeantime,ownersandlandlordswouldbeencouragedtorecord,oratleastreport,thesevoluntarilyforinclusioninanEPCasafurthersteerforbuyersandtenants.

• Fornewbuild,itisinevitablethattheinitialEPCwillbebasedonmodelleddataduetotheneedforproductionpre-occupation.However,thiswouldbereplacedbyasecondEPConeyearpost-occupation,withfinancialpenaltiesappliedwheremodelledenergyconsumptionissignificantlylowerthanactualconsumption.

• The‘recommendedmeasures’sectionofanEPCwouldbesplitintotwosections,onecoveringsimplemeasures(e.g.insulation)forwhichgood(enough)Scottishdataisavailable,andtheothercoveringmorecomplexmeasures(e.g.renewableenergytechnologies)forwhichadditionalon-siteassessmentsareneeded,andwhichwouldbefilteredbyanassessor.ThedatagatheredaspartofthiscouldalsoformthebasisofaScottishforkforBREDEM/SAP.


• TheapproachalsoprovidesanopportunitytomergetheScottishSustainabilityLabelwithEPCstoprovideamoreholisticsetofrecommendations(theresourceusesectionofanSSLalreadyreplicatespartofanEPCandSSLcriteriarelatedirectlytotheBuildingStandards).Thecostsofthiswouldbepartiallyoffsetbyownersself-reportingagainsttheadditionalSSLcriteria,whichwouldthenbeverifiedbyanassessoraspartofproducinganewEPC.

• NewEPCswouldberequiredforallpropertiesperiodically(e.g.every10years)shouldanassessmentnotbetriggeredbysale,rentalorextension.

• ThisalternativeapproachwouldleavethegeneralappearanceofEPCsunchangedandmeetwiththerequirementsoftheEPBD,andwouldprovideamuchmorerealisticandtangibleassessmentofenergyuseandgeneralbuildingperformancetopotentialbuyersandtenants.Itwouldalsointroduceanelementofenforcementanddiscourage‘optimistic’assessmentsofenergyperformance.

• ItisentirelywithinthepowersoftheScottishGovernmenttodothis.

AnAlternativeNon-DomesticEPC

• EssentiallythesameapproachasforalternativedomesticEPCs.

• Theavailabilityofhalf-hourlydatawouldbeusedtoprovidefullloadprofilestobuyersandtenants(wherenotdeemedcommerciallyconfidential).

• Adoptingthe‘softlandings’approachtopost-occupancyevaluationofnewbuildwouldbecomemandatory,withfullsecondassessmentsrequiredat3-5yearspost-occupation.

• AlthoughtheScottishSustainabilityLabelisnotfullydevelopedfornon-domesticbuildingsthiscouldbefinishedinparallelwithpreparingtoimplementalternativeEPCs,andifnecessarynon-domesticEPCscouldbeextendedtoincludethefullSSLcriteriaaspartoffuturerevisions.

• Again,itisentirelywithinthepowersoftheScottishGovernmenttodothis.

AndEPCsareonlyonebarrier(albeitasubstantialone)totacklingfuelpoverty

“Asacademicsandpractitionerswesharetheviewthatinanenergyrichnationitisnotacceptablethatsuchalargeproportionofhouseholdssufferdailythedeleteriouseffectsofenergyrationing,orthattheyareforcedtomanagedebtsjusttomaintainareasonablemodernstandardofliving.

Webelievewehaveadutytocontinuallyquestionourunderstandingofthismodernsocietalinequality,andthemethodsandapproacheswetaketoidentifyingandtacklingit.”

FoundingstatementoftheEnergyPovertyResearchinitiative,August2017.

ReconceptualisingFuelPovertyasaComplexProblemOurresearchhasshownhowitisentirelypossible,andsociallydesirable,toreconciletheBoardman-based(‘10%ofincome’)definitionoffuelpovertywithawidercomplexityandrisk-basedassessmentofhouseholdervulnerability.

Source:Mould,R.,&Baker,K.J.,2017.Documentingfuelpovertyfromthehouseholders’perspective.EnergyResearch&SocialScience,31,(2017),pp.21–31.

Reproducedin:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E

DidwementionmakingNatureEnergy?

Invitedarticle.

Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.

Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E

RethinkingFuelPovertyasaComplexProblem

“Fuelpovertyisahighlycomplexsocialproblemthatiscurrentlydefinedintechnicalandeconomictermsthatprioritiseenergyperformancemeasuresassolutions.Yetconsideringthewidersocietalaspectsoftheconditiondemonstrateshowadoptingdynamicrisk-basedmetricscandrivetailoredandholisticfolk-firstoutcomes.”

Source:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E

Redefiningsuccess

“Aneffectivepolicyorinterventionisonewhichnotonlyservestoliftahouseholdoutoffuelpovertybutwhichalsoservestoincreasetheirresiliencetothefuelpovertycondition”.

Source:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E

Furtherreadingonsupplychains

Tacklingfuelpovertyanddeprivationbyenablingsustainabledistrictheatingandsupplychains“Thedevelopmentoflocal,sustainablebiomasssupplychainstoprovidefuelfor

new‘Danishmodel’multi-technologydistrictheatingschemespresents

significantopportunitiestoleveragedirectandco-benefitsforjobcreation,

recreation,tourism,enhancingbiodiversity,tacklingclimatechangeandfuel

poverty,andregeneratingdeprivedruralandremoteareasofScotland.Thisis

anopportunityScotlandcannotaffordtomiss.”

JustWarmth:DevelopingequitableandsustainabledistrictheatingsystemsinScotland

Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/just-warmth

Tacklingfuelpovertyanddecarbonisingoff-gashouseholds“Werecommendthatabanonthesaleofallnewoilandcoalboilersbe

implementedalongsidetheintroductionoftherevisedScottishBuilding

Standardsin2021.

Inordertodevelopthenecessaryinfrastructureandfuelsupplychainsnecessary

tomaximisethebenefitsofheatnetworkswerecommendtheurgentadoption

ofaDanish-styleHeatSupplyAct,whichshouldalsobeintroducedalongsidethe

revisedScottishBuildingStandardsin2021.”

Newpaper: Carbon-free,Poverty-free:HeatingoptionsforruralScotland

Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library

ThecaseforaScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgency“TheScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgencyshouldcoordinatethedistributionof

R&Dfundingandanyfundsassociatedwithstrategicplanningandovercoming

therural/urbanfueldivide,coordinateandprioritisethetrainingoftechnology

expertsinvariousdistrictheatingtechnologiesandenablewidersocialand

economicvaluethroughidentifyingprojectsthatmayofferpoorcommercial

returnsbutwoulddeliverindirectbenefits(co-benefits)totheeconomy,society,

andtheenvironment.”

PoweringOurAmbitions:TheroleofScotland’sPubliclyOwnedEnergyCompanyandthecaseforaScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgency

Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/powering-our-ambitions

AndcomingfromCommonWealandEPRi inautumn2019….

Thecaseforapublicly-ownedScottishNationalEnergyService

Andfinally….theinevitableplugJ

Managingthedeclineoffossilfuels:TheLongGoodbye?

DrGeoffWood&DrKeithBaker(eds).PalgraveMacmillan,Oct2019.

Contributionsbyover20internationalexpertsincluding:OlafurGrimsson,formerPresidentofIceland;DrPaulDorfmanonnuclear;ProfDavidElliottoncarboncaptureandstorage;andspecialguestauthorsonRussiaandgas.

Discussion

energy retrofitting in scotland: skills and the supply chain€¦ · epc assessments across an...

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