energy risks toward 2025: global analyses · 2019. 7. 9. · 11 08.07.2019 dr.-ing. james daniell...

KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association

CENTER FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNOLOGY (CEDIM)

www.cedim.de

Energy Risks toward 2025: Global Analyses

James Daniell, Andreas Schaefer et al.

2 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025

Energy Risks toward 2025

Goal was to improve current post-disaster rapid modelling by

concentrating on a key sector

Using large scale loss models and global databases:-

• Characterisation of energy systems

• Evaluating investment in infrastructure via capital methods

• Historical disaster effects on power systems and humans

• Follow-on consequences of power outages on industry (hotels,

consumables)

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Summary of Results

Rapid post-disaster methodology for direct loss estimation of energy

systems GRADE

Database of post-disaster losses from energy systems (and

infrastructure) developed from many sources.

Database of exposure elements and values for energy capital stock

made globally.

Vulnerability function repository developed.

Multi-Hazard EURATOM Project NARSIS on Nuclear Power Plants –

WP1 Lead.

Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019


Losses in Energy Sector

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Exposure Vulnerability X

Systems Databases

(No. and Value) Susceptibility of

Systems to hazard

Hazard X

Hazard Parameter

(i.e. wind speed)

Network Analysis

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Analysis of Hurricane Irma

08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025

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Analysis of Hurricane Irma – Power Outages


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Why is this work important?



Analysis of global energy systems

• Hazard analysis

• Exposure analysis (Capital stock

determination)

• Historical disaster analysis

• Vulnerability of components

• Network disruption analysis

• Socioeconomic / Policy loss analysis

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Open Subnational Level Datasets: Exposure

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• Number of components

• Type of components

• Location of components

• Value of components


Power stations:

Enipedia-OSM-other datasets hybrid

Over 80,000 power plants geocoded

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11 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019

Exposure Cost Analysis: Power Supply

Gunasekera et al. (2015) - we have since used this method in over 70 countries

Investment Data (top-down) Construction Cost Data (bottom-up)

Asset Analysis (no., size, construction cost, investment, type)


Natural Catastrophe Energy Losses Database

• Includes 1407 events with recorded energy-related direct losses

using CATDAT

• Mostly bigger events (many blackouts via TC, EQ, FL over 1m etc.)

• Shows important trends from disasters as to energy-sector losses

• Over 200 PDNAs and DALAs have also been translated and used (an

increase of over 100 since last time.

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Building up vulnerability databases for

energy systems from past disasters

• Built up globally for each peril

from literature on electrical

systems

• Bigger FDA events gave us a

chance to test functions and

upper parts of the curve.

Earthquake

Wind

Flood

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GRADE Ongoing and includes energy system losses

Paper upcoming – need to finish social media analysis work as part of

this for the Hurricane Irma study, as well as others to see the

application of Bayesian updating.

Realising where the analysis can deliver plausible results and where

additional information on damage from ground sources is required

(cooperation with Jens de Bruijn, Marleen de Ruiter and others at IVM)

Some work has contributed to NARSIS EURATOM project in terms of

vulnerability functions and other hazard modelling components

Current Status and Future Plans

Dr-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019

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Outreach during project

EGU Posters and Presentations as part of different contributions.

Use of the methodologies during the GRADE assessments done in

various locations including Ecuador, Haiti, Caribbean, Indonesia,

Guatemala, Mozambique, Madagascar – mostly all TC and earthquake

Used as part of the GRADE press releases, however not explicitly to do

with just energy infrastructure. A direct fund however in Mozambique

was set up for building back the energy infrastructure however.

Dr-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019

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Economic loss and

exposure estimation

report and analytical tables

and maps relating to

physical damage

Collaboration with

governments and energy

research groups

Estimates for World

Bank, EC, UN, govts. and

humanitarian agencies

GRADE Outputs and applications

2016 HU Matthew - Haiti 2016 EQ Ecuador



Did the applications for the large-scale energy

risks project achieve their goal???

Integration in the Post Disaster Needs

Assessment Framework of the World

Bank-EU-UN

Datasets ready for the next FDA to save time….

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Wine: Power Supply of Tanks etc.

Was explored following global and country-level models in Australia (collaboration

partners: Uni Adelaide and ANU) with meetings in November 2017, with work in

2018:- however only for a few small case studies in SW West Australia; and

Melbourne and was not integrated into final analysis full network analysis needed

to constrain uncertainty.

Powerwalls and Solar Tiles:

Hazards and Risk

Applications for small-scale networks

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Social Media fill-ins and more…

Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019

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Advantage of CEDIM


Support for outreach of the modelling allowing for meeting interested

groups.

Discussion potential each time as part of the Jour Fixe in order to keep

the original project goals in check

The FDA methodology (among others) contributed to the GRADE and

now the feeding back from GRADE and now support of GRADE.

Collaborations through CEDIM partners (existing and otherwise)

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Energy Risks toward 2025:

Collaborations Ongoing….


energy risks toward 2025: global analyses · 2019. 7. 9. · 11 08.07.2019 dr.-ing. james daniell...

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