energy security and environmental concerns: by chandrabhushan

Centre for Science and Environment

India’s energy security: Prospects for the future

Centre for Science and EnvironmentNew Delhi

Chandra BhushanAssociate Director


India at present

Coal67166

Gas11840

Diesel1196

Hydro30135

Nuclear2720

Wind2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW

• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh

• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh

• Electrification rate: 44.4%

• Population with electricity: 466 million

• Population without electricity: 583 million

• Coal dominant energy source (58%)

Ministry of Power, Government of India


Plans for the future

• India needs sustained economic growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI

• Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power– Peak shortfall– Average shortfall– High T&D Losses:

• At 8% economic growth by 2015:• Installed Capacity: 250 GW• Generation: = 1500 billion

kWh• Per Capita Consumption:

1000 kWh

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.


The Task Ahead

• Need to add 135 GW in ten years

– 13,500 MW required per annum

– ~ One power plant per month

– Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)

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Fuel Supply: Options for Future

• Coal– Conventional– Supercritical– FBC– Gasification

• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear• Wind

– On-shore– Off-shore

• Biomass• Solar

– Photo voltaic– Concentrating Solar Power

Fuel Present In 2015

Coal 67,166 MW ?

Gas 11,840 MW ?

Hydro 30,135 MW ?

Nuclear 2,720 MW ?

Wind 2,488 MW ?

Biomass 1,000 MW ?

Solar - ?

TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW


Coal

• Reserves– Proven 91 billion Tons– Indicated 116 billion

Tons– Inferred 37 billion Tons– TOTAL 245 billion Tons

• Coal reserves > 250 years at present levels of consumption

• Concentrated in Eastern India – mostly in forested tribal areas

Madhya Pradesh

7%

Others13%

Jharkhand29%

Chattisgarh16%

West Bengal11%

Orissa24%


Issues with Indian coal

• High ash: 25%-45%

• Low sulfur < 0.5%

• Low energy content

• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh

• Issues with coal:

– Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 120 million tonne

– CO2 emissions: 360 million tonne

– Water consumption: 83,000 mld (avg. 80 m3/Mwh)

– NOx, SOx, Particulate, Mercury

– Land degradation, groundwater contamination

Heating Value

(BTU/lb)

Ash Content

(%)

Sulfur

(%)

USA Coal 11500 5-10% .5-3.5%

Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5


Coal: Future Scenarios

Projections of coal demand (2015): – Demand: 580 MT– Domestic production will not be

enough. Imports needed– Projected to spend $6 billion a year

importing coal by 2015– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail

transportation stagnationIssues:

– Ash generation > 200 million tonne– CO2 emissions > 850 million tonne– Water consumption: 110,000 mld– NOx, SOx, Particulate, Mercury– Land degradation, groundwater

contamination– Forest diversion, biodiversity– Displacement, resettlement and

rehabilitation

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Coal Transport by Railways

Business as Usual

Accelerated growth scenario

INDIA STILL HAS NO COMMITMENT

FOR C02 REDUCTION.

BUT AFTER 2012 ???


Hydro-Electricity

• Inferred potential ~ 150 GW• Installed capacity: 30 GW • Most big potential are in North-

Eastern states and in Uttaranchal, HP and J&K

• Area submerged under large dams so far approx. 375, 000 Sq. km.

• People displaced by large dams appox. 56 million

• Forest area diverted/ submerged 4.5-9.1 million hectare

• Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects

• Environmental issues• Water sharing agreements with

neighbors

National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India

Plans add max. 10,000 MW by 2015


Natural Gas

• Fastest growing primary fuel in India– Consumption: > 31 BCM/year– Primary uses:

Power 41%Fertilizer 32%Sponge Iron 4%Other 23%

– Growing needs for transportation (and cooking)– Started importing gas from 2004 onwards– With 0.5% of global gas reserve, and consumption likely to

increase, we will have to depend on imported gas– Problems with privatizing domestic gas finds


Natural Gas Pipelines

Indore

- onwards to India

TAPS

TAPS(across water)

CENTGAS

- to Pakistan

Indore

Baroda333333333

KarachiGwadar

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Gas supplyConsumptioncenter

New Delhi

Multan

1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar

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Pakistan

Afghanistan

Iran

Turkmenistan

QatarIndia

Oman

Gas Authority of India Limited

India’s Gas Pipelines

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)


Natural gas viability

• Will depend on affordability

• Internationally, price of natural gas is rising because of its being a clean fuel and less Carbon-intensive

• For India, gas is a geo-political issue


Biomass

• Predominantly agricultural country.• Annual production of agro-forest and

processing residues: 350 million tons• Power generation potential > 22,000 MW• Advantages:

– Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers.

– Huge potential to generate rural income in agro-forestry in wasteland

– Technology reasonably well developed– No net CO2 emissions

• Disadvantages:– Collection and storage– Competing users in case of agro-

residue and fuel wood (mainly poor)– Diversion of fertile land if not properly

monitored– Loss of organic fertilizer on land– Emissions and water consumption

Feedstock Examples Potential Installed

Agro-forest residues

Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells

17,000 MW 50 MW

Processing residues

Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse

5,000 MW 1000 MW

- Up to 3000 MW can be added based on bagasse and husk by 2015

- For plants based of wood, latent period of 10 years is required (but biomass is a poor converter of solar energy only 1-3%)


Wind Energy

• Gross potential : 45,000 MW• Technical potential : 20,000

MW (grid connected)

• Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s

• India ranks 5th in the world– Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW– Economically competitive

• Problems:– Low average load factor~16%– New generation, larger wind mills not

introduced (5 MW)– Offshore potential not exploited

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World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)


Wind potential

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In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US


Nuclear Power: The Present Status

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Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status

• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission

• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR)

• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction

• Track record on capacity delivery very poor

• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years

• Very costly

• Most water intensive

• Cost of decommissioning of facility similar to cost of construction

• Radioactive waste disposal – no solution so far


Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status

• Indo-US Nuclear Deal: Hostage to international relations and changing international politics

• That too for only 30 GW out of 135 GW till 2015.

• From where will the water come??

• Where will the wastes go??

• How much will be the cost??

• Is this deal is for energy security or something else?

• In global politics, it makes India more insecure


Solar energy

• Solar energy equivalent to 180-watt bulb perpetually lighting-up every sq.m. on earth.

• Most parts of India has 250 sunny days in the year (some parts have more than 300 days)

• The entire energy demand of India till 2030 can be met by a solar farm (with existing efficiency of 10%) of 10,000 sq. km. area.

• This is one-third of the area of Barmer district or 0.33% of India’s total land area.

• We have already submerged approx. 375,000 Sq. km. behind dams.


Solar energy

• But we are still experimenting with solar cooker and solar lighting.

• Solar energy is a chicken and egg story – so was computers and so was all existing technology

• That’s where public expenditure comes in to kick-start technology – private sector will wait till it becomes economically competitive – till the end of hydrocarbons age (or atleast oil age)


Solar energy

• Need to move on both Solar PV and Solar TPP.

• Solar TPP operating in Mojave desert in the US since early 1980s has solar to electricity efficiency of 20% for 10 hours daily.

• New generation PV’s are reaching efficiency of 15%

• In short-medium term move towards hybrid solar-clean coal – gas system

• Or use solar to generate hydrogen and then convert hydrogen to electricity – get rid of timing problem

• Hydrogen generated can also be used for mobility


India’s energy and environmental future

• In long-term: mix of Clean coal, biomass, biofuel, wind, solar and run-off the river hydropower – all available within country

• Convert residual energy to hydrogen to meet peaking demand and also fuel demand

• To do it, we have to start investing from today.

• Investments made today will have repercussions for the next 50 years – we will have to live with it.

• Start regulating end-use of energy (mandatory introduction of energy saving equipments)

• The ones who invest in energy saving technologies and renewable energies today will be the economic winners of tomorrow.

energy security and environmental concerns: by chandrabhushan

Technology

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